New Brunswick Power and Nova Scotia Power are looking at the prospect of building a new 500 megawatt connection between the two provinces.
The Chronicle Herald estimated the connection would cost $200 million when they reported on the potential interconnection earlier in July.
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We are in a bubble. I think we are in a protected bubble.
That’s Danny Williams making a few observations at the close of the most recent session of the provincial legislature.
It’s not the first time Williams talked about bubbles. He said the same thing in October 2008 as the world headed into the worst recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s:
We now, for the first time in our lives, are in a bit of a financial bubble and that's a wonderful thing. We have that protection and the people of this province got the support of the provincial government
Williams even claimed during that call to a radio open line show that “[h]opefully our [budget] surpluses will continue, hopefully they'll get even larger, it will enable us to do the things that we've been doing. I mean this, for us this hasn't happened overnight. We've been preparing for this.”
Then the talk of surpluses and bubbles disappeared.
You see, bubbles are wonderful things, all pretty and shimmery in the sunlight.
But bubbles are flimsy and insubstantial.
Bubbles have a distressing tendency to burst.
And in the case of the Williams economic bubble, the whole thing burst quite spectacularly. The provincial gross domestic product dropped 22% in 2009, or 10.2% in real terms as RBC assessed it. Deficit spending became the new order not just for the day but for the years to come and cabinet ministers openly admitted provincial government spending was unsustainable.
Now for those reasons alone it was nothing short of bizarre to see Williams return to the complete nonsense that somehow the province – let alone the provincial government – had emerged from the recession safely wrapped in some sort of bubble. It was even more bizarre to see Williams repeating this line:
However, when I look at what is happening here in Newfoundland and Labrador, the fact that we do have our debt reduced,…
It’s bizarre because it simply isn’t true. The total public sector liabilities remain as high in 2009 as they were at just about any point in the last five years. Even the net debt – government’s favourite misleading measure – increased as the 2009 cash shortfall sucked up a half billion dollars of cash the government had laying about and which had previously been used to offset government’s liabilities, even if only paper.
Williams went even beyond those crazy remarks, claiming that the previously unfunded pension liabilities had been addressed. Of course, that isn’t correct either. As Budget 2010 forecasts, the unfunded pension liabilities will increase in the current fiscal year just as the net debt will increase.
So aside from a decidedly unhealthy dose of self-delusion, it’s pretty hard to tell what the Premier was getting on with in the House of assembly only a month or so ago.
The prospect of a second and prolonged recession - widely discussed for some weeks now – only makes the premier’s claims that much harder to fathom. If the United States economy slows down again, then the Newfoundland and Labrador economy will follow suit. Williams’ own economic policies have seen to that.
If economist George Athanassakos turns out to be right, things in Newfoundland and Labrador could be even worse:
Economies are still extremely vulnerable to speculative bubbles and dips and increased volatility. The panic of 2008 and the subsequent rescue packages did not provide the necessary catharsis that recessions bring to economies. Demand for broader reforms has also waned as a result of the rescue of the economy from the panic of 2008. If this were not enough, economies have become addicted to low interest rates and to liquidity infusions.
Rather than being protected by a bubble, Newfoundland and Labrador may be more vulnerable to a second economic downturn than other parts of the western world. First of all, more and more of the local economy under the Williams administration is based on unsustainable public sector spending.* Second of all, the metro St. John’s area housing explosion - even as it subsides – has been built on public sector spending coupled with low interest rate policies. A second recession will likely kill both of those simultaneously.
Incidentally, the most recent figures from Statistics Canada suggest that the construction boom in Newfoundland and Labrador isn’t a commercial one.
Even as spending on the Vale Long Harbour project, Hibernia South and Hebron ramp up in 2012, they won’t be able to offset a decline through all other sectors of the economy. And that’s even allowing that oil prices don’t drop thereby putting development of Hebron in some doubt.
The forest industry is a pale shadow of what it was even a half dozen years ago. The fishery is mired in restructuring talks. In any event, the industry is woefully short of the capital investment needed to sustain itself let alone retool for global competition. Destroying Fishery Products International and selling off its most useful and lucrative assets will prove to be one of several catastrophic policy failures of the current administration.
Mining may be doing reasonably well in the year ahead, but a second global recession will also adversely affect commodity prices. Even if oil prices remain at current levels, declining production over the next two to three years will reduce government revenues significantly.
Meanwhile, provincial government cash deficits in 2010 and again in 2011 would rapidly eat up whatever cash reserves are on hand. A significant economic downturn through the latter half of 2010 and into the 2011 election could force the government into a difficult financial position likely meaning spending cuts and wage freezes.
The province is not protected by a bubble. It is subject to the same forces that affect the rest of the world. Far from insulating the provincial economy from global forces, government policy has left the province in a more precarious position than it has been in two decades.
That’s the thing about bubbles. Like delusions, they have a tendency to burst in the most unsettling way imaginable.
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* The growth in the provincial public service in recent years is not just a relative growth owing to a decline in other sectors, like forestry. From labradore:
In the past decade, the absolute numbers of people in NL who work in the provincial public sector — the provincial civil service, public health care, social service, and education system, and public post-secondary education institutions — has increased by 35%. Not only is that the largest increase, start to finish, of any of the ten provinces, for most of the decade, NL has topped the chart in terms of the growth rate. And, starting in 2006, that growth curve spiked steeply upwards, with annualized growth of up to seven percent per year, unmatched by any other province except, starting in the second half of 2008, Prince Edward Island. [Emphasis added]
A Canadian Forces court martial found Captain Robert Semrau guilty of behaving in a cruel or disgraceful manner on Monday but found him not guilty second degree murder, attempted murder and negligent performance of a duty.
The infantry officer faced charges arising out of the death of a wounded insurgent in Afghanistan.
Under s. 93 of the National Defence Act, an individual “who behaves in a cruel or disgraceful manner is guilty of an offence and on conviction is liable to imprisonment for a term not exceeding five years or to less punishment.”
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It’s July 19, 2010 and while the Department of Government Services has updated its website design, the whole thing is still aimed at browsers which no longer exist.
Your humble e-scribbler last pointed this embarrassment out in July 2009.
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Last week, labradore comments on the size of the provincial labour force occupied by the provincial government public sector. He capped it off with a chart (below) showing a comparison for all 10 provinces over the past decade.
All this brings home one of the points made here earlier this year in a series of posts on the increasingly fragile state of the provincial economy. More the provincial economy is dependent on trade with a single market, namely the United States. There are fewer private sector industries driving the economy and, at the same time, provincial government spending has assumed an increasingly large role in the economy as a whole.
If you extend the picture back over the three decades for which data is available, you can see both the persistent over-reliance in Newfoundland and Labrador on public sector labour compared to the situation in other provinces as well as the increase in the public sector labour force over the past three years.
These charts go a long way to demonstrating the extent to which popular perceptions of local prosperity are entirely wrong. Whatever is going on locally is most certainly not the result of private sector economic development.
Rather there are more public servants making more money, 20% more, in fact over the most recent four year contract. Couple this with the dramatic increase in overall provincial government spending – upwards of 60% in four years – and the picture is unmistakeable.
Those who want to talk about prosperity in the province or those who want to celebrate the province’s “have” status would do well to look at the three provinces with the smallest proportion of their labour forces working for the provincial government. It is no coincidence that those provinces with the strongest economies are also ones in which the public sector labour force is a relatively small proportion of the overall working population.
That doesn’t mean that public servants and public services are unimportant. Rather, the situation in Newfoundland and Labrador demonstrates the extent to which successive provincial governments in Newfoundland and Labrador – but most particularly the current one – have failed to create the climate in the province for sustainable economic development let alone diversification of the local economy.
What makes the current administration stand out, though, is that increasing the role of the public sector in the economy, whether through NALCOR or through admittedly unsustainable growth in public spending, is openly stated as the goal.
The fact that observers outside the provincial government have repeatedly failed to notice that this is occurring is another matter. No surprise, though, that if they cannot even correctly identify the trend to growing fragility, they may not pay any attention at all to the very serious implications from policies that promote the hollowing out of the province’s economic underpinnings.
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As you’ll discover fairly quickly in reading a Telegram story on class sizes, the idea of capping the number of students per class is aimed at improving student achievement: more of them will pass; they’ll get higher grades; that sort of thing.
In other words, by giving each classroom teacher fewer students to work with, you improve the chances that each student will do better in school. You can measure that a number of ways, one of which would be the national testing administered in Grades Three, Six and Nine.
So it is more than a bit odd that the very first sentence in the story says this:
School enrolment numbers suggest the provincial government's plan to cap class sizes has been mostly successful.
The number of students in a school isn’t a measure of success for capping the size of classrooms. It’s one of the things that can influence the outcome - better performance by each student – and it is a factor that varies despite the efforts of school administrators.
After all, as the story acknowledges, “[f]rom June to September, for example, a lot of things can change, he said. Children can move away from a certain school or a certain area; children can move into an area.”
So this story doesn’t do anything but tell us all that the people working at school boards managed to put enough teachers in classrooms to hit a target ratio of students to teachers.
That’s nice but it doesn’t really mean they achieved the goal, which, you may recall, was about ensuring students did better in school.
Where’s the measure of that?
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Fisheries reform is a success.
Well, that is if “success” means employing legions of bureaucrats to engage in endless meetings that produce exactly nothing after a full year of meetings.
Under the terms of agreement setting up those meetings, all the work was supposed to be finished seven months ago.
And it’s not like you haven’t heard this before:
Knowledge is not the problem in the fishery.
Impotence is.
And no amount of money, no army of scientists, no fleet of research vessels will ever find a little blue pill to cure that problem.
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As labradore has been putting it in a series of posts, the provincial public service in the first half of 2010 comprises 53,780 people working directly for the provincial government, the university and public colleges, health care authorities and public school boards.
That works out to 26.2% of the working people of the province. That’s double the comparable percentage for all 10 provinces.
And here’s the truly unsettling bit:
In the thirty years in which Statistics Canada has measured public sector employment, the percentage of employed people in Newfoundland and Labrador labour force who are employed in the provincial public sector has never been this high.
Those 53,780 comprise 21% of the entire labour force and, once again, that’s the highest this percentage has been in the three decades that Statistics Canada has been measuring public sector employment.
And they make up about 10% of the entire population of the province.
That’s a pretty sharp contrast to the talk in 2004. As CBC reported, Danny Williams’ first budget forecast a cut of 4,000 public service positions. By 2005, that planned cut disappeared. The planned cuts have evidently been replaced with a pretty hefty hiring plan.
Now if the private sector had grown at a similar or greater pace, there wouldn’t be so cause for concern. As the job numbers show, though, the proportion of the labour force employed in the public sector has grown to an amazing level. in some regions of the province – like, say, Grand Falls-Windsor - the provincial public service is the major employer.
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Earth, Wind and Fire:
And a cover version that isn’t Earth, Wind and Fire:
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Summertime is the season when politicians get to travel.
For example, take the annual meeting of governors from the New England states and premiers from the six eastern Canadian provinces. They got together from July 11 to 13 in Massachusetts for a series of meetings.
Not much came out of the meetings - there were a couple of initiatives they all agreed to implement but then again, these things are seldom about solving big issues. You can get an excellent sense of how little of substance ever gets done at these meetings by taking a look at the rather vague news release from the Premier’s Office on the meetings. And if that isn’t enough, look at the equally vacuous collection of scripted quotes issued by the four Atlantic Canadian premiers. One of them, incidentally wasn’t even at the meeting, but he did get included in the quote-fest.
Much like trade shows, these sorts of big meetings are not the places to cut deals. They are the places to sign deals worked out well in advance.
For example, Maine and Nova Scotia signed an agreement during the meetings to work jointly on development of ocean energy. That’s tidal power or wave power.
New Brunswick premier Shawn Graham even got a public endorsement from three New England governors for the proposed second nuclear reactor in new Brunswick. The governors of Maine, Rhode Island and Vermont support Lepreau 2. In fact, Rhode Island Governor Donald Carcieri thinks that nuclear energy must be part of the mix for the region’s future energy supply.
Heck, even away from the conference regional energy deals are in the news. Nova Scotia Power and New Brunswick Power are working a deal on the 4200 million intertie upgrade Bond Papers mentioned last week. Daewoo will be building a wind turbine manufacturing plant in Nova Scotia, as well.
Conspicuously absent from all this concrete talk of energy deals is the place its own premier now describes as “a significant energy player” in North America.
Not energy hub. That job is now taken by New Brunswick.
No longer an energy warehouse.
Just a player, albeit a supposedly significant one, whatever that means.
The only specific reference to a project or initiative in Danny Williams vague news release was to the Lower Churchill. As readers of this space know, this project is now pretty much dead in the water. Mo markets, no money and - especially at an estimated cost $14 billion and counting - no sign of anyone willing to underwrite the whole thing. It is now obviously what it always has been all along: a mere political prop.
That’s what comes of putting every egg into a single basket. While other jurisdictions are allowing many different ideas to move simultaneously, the current administration in Newfoundland and Labrador is sitting as an obstacle to innovation. It’s obsession with a single megaproject - laid down in the official energy policy itself - prevents other ideas from getting any serious consideration.
Newfoundland and Labrador is being rapidly left behind in energy development. Despite abundant energy, a skilled work force and ample resources, new energy developments are happening somewhere else. Compare Grand Falls-Windsor to Trenton, Nova Scotia, for instance. The wind turbine plant is expected to employ 120 in its first year and upwards of 400 at peak. What’s likely to happen any time soon in the central Newfoundland town?
The Maritime provinces are becoming an energy hub. Newfoundland and Labrador is looking more and more like the loose economic development wheel.
The cause is flawed policy.
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Some politicians just don’t know when to stop.
On Tuesday, new Democratic Party member of parliament Jack Harris (St. John’s East) did an interview with CBC’s St. John’s morning radio show. The subject of the interview was news yesterday that an offshore supply vessel working for Suncor had reduced its on-call fast rescue craft crewing from two crews to one.
That met Transport Canada’s regulations, a point Harris acknowledged during the interview very early on by referring to…well… “Transport Canada regulations”. Harris expressed some concern – others have too – have any reduction in available rescue crews in light of last year’s offshore helicopter crash.
Fair enough. It’s a good point and, later on Tuesday, the company restored the two-crew standard.*
Had Jack stopped there he might have been okay. As it is, the program host tossed Jack a question about the potential role in all this for the offshore regulatory board. Jack offered the view that, as some people have been suggesting to the ongoing offshore helicopter inquiry, this might be a good occasion to review the possible need for a separate regulatory agency that just looks after offshore safety.
Minor problem.
The offshore regulatory board doesn’t do safety regulations.
Jack obviously knows this, as he demonstrated earlier in the interview. This is one of those decisions that remain the exclusive jurisdiction of the Government of Canada under the 1985 Atlantic Accord.
Therefore – try and follow the logic – if the offshore regulatory board doesn’t do offshore safety regulations, then some other entirely separate organization must do it.
Already.
So what is the frackin’ point of studying the need for a separate regulatory board for safety when there is one already called Transport Canada?
There isn’t any.
Obviously.
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* Clarification: Suncor will only have two crews on standby when there are two rigs. They will add the second standby crew when the Henry Goodrich is back in the fall to do additional drill work.
As the online CBC story puts it:
John Downton, communications manager for Suncor's east coast operations, said a second dedicated crew will return to the Burin Sea this fall, when the Henry Goodrich returns to work at Terra Nova.
Downton said Suncor, which merged last year with Petro-Canada and is the operating partner of the Terra Nova consortium, has been following regulations established under Canadian law, which require one fast-rescue craft per offshore installation.
"We meet regulatory requirements," Downton told CBC News. "We don't set the regulations — we follow them."
last week’s release of the latest labour force numbers from Statistics Canada prompted your humble e-scribbler to go back and try a comparison of the overall provincial labour force in comparison to national averages.
Right off the bat, let everyone understand this is nothing more than a quick comparison based on readily available information. It should serve as the jumping off point for future discussion and if nothing else, it should help everyone get way beyond the rather simplistic comparisons of month-to-month numbers. Sometimes those things are meaningful but as the past couple of months have shown, sometimes, the statistics are just off.
The provincial numbers comes from a document included with the last provincial budget. It’s called The Economy and gives an overview of the year just ended. The national numbers come from the latest labour force statistics. Both sources use the same job classification system. The listing below bundles them together so that the comparisons match up.
The figures are the percentage of the total number of jobs in each category. For example, 1.7% of jobs in Canada are classified as being agricultural. The corresponding percentage for Newfoundland and Labrador is 0.4%
To draw attention to aspects of the comparison, please note that categories where the provincial percentage lags behind the national significantly are marked with the digits underlined. Where the provincial is significantly above the national average, the figures are in red.
Statisticians may wonder what the definition of “significant” is. Well, it comes down to the relative difference in the two numbers as they appear on the face of it.
Category | National | Newfoundland and Labrador |
| Goods-producing | 22% | 21% |
| Agriculture | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| Natural Res | 2.0 | 6.7 |
| Utilities | <1 | 2.1 |
| Construction | 7.0 | 7.3 |
| Manufacturing | 10.2 | 5.5 |
| Services-producing | 78 | 79 |
| Trade | 15.7 | 16.2 |
| Trans/warehouse | 4.7 | 5.4 |
| Fin, ins, RE,Bus | 10.5 | 6.7 |
| Prof./sci./tech. | 7.4 | 3.6 |
| Education | 7.2 | 8.1 |
| Health/soc asst | 11.9 | 16.1 |
| Accn | 6.0 | 6.1 |
| Public Admin | 5.5 | 7.9 |
| Other | 4.3 | 4.8 |
Right off the bat, note that the relative breakdown into goods-producing and service- producing is virtually the same for both the provincial and national economies.
Let’s look at the goods sector. Overall, the provincial economy in this sector is very heavily reliant on resource extraction. The natural resources grouping (which includes fishing, trapping, mining and oil extraction) accounts for three times as large a percentage of jobs within the province as the same grouping. Manufacturing, on the other hand, accounts for only half as much. That 5.5% manufacturing for the province includes 2.2% for fish processing.
In the services sector, there are some equally interesting comparisons. Finance, insurance, real estate and business services account for 6.7% of the jobs in this province while the same grouping accounts for 105% of jobs nationally. The professional, scientific and technical services sector accounts for 3.6% of local jobs versus 7.4% nationally.
Take a look, though, at two service sectors which are publicly funded. About 16% of local jobs are in the health sector compared to 11.9% nationally; that’s 33% above the national number. Public administration is 43%, accounting for 7.9% of provincial jobs compared to 5.5% nationally.
Fully a quarter of the jobs in the province are public sector jobs compared to 17.4% of jobs across the country. Given that some of the other categories likely also contain public sector employees, it wouldn’t take too much to estimate reasonably that the public sector accounts for about one third of all workers in the province.
Incidentally, just to put actual numbers on this, the health and social assistance sector accounted for 34,600 jobs in 2009 according to the provincial government figures. That’s out of a total of 214,900 jobs. It is the single largest category in the service sector, with retail trade coming in at 29,600 for second place There were 17,300 in educational services and 16,900 people working in public administration.
The largest job category in goods-producing was construction at 15,700. The second largest was manufacturing with 11,900. Of that manufacturing number, 4,700 were involved in fish processing.
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Pre-publication post-script update: This posts was written the night before it appeared. labradore has a simple set of numbers using more recent data for the size of the public sector in the province. His estimates are for the provincial public sector alone; the figures above are for federal, provincial and municipal.
Still, according to labradore, the provincial government public sector accounted for 25% of the current labour force in the first half of 2010.
From the Department of National Defence:
CFNIS NR – 2010-11 - July 12, 2010
OTTAWA РThe Canadian Forces National Investigation Service (CFNIS), which is the investigative arm of the Canadian Forces Military Police, has concluded its investigation relating to allegations of inappropriate conduct and has charged Brigadier-General Daniel M̩nard and Master-Corporal Bianka Langlois. The investigation was initiated in May 2010 and is related to the Canadian Forces Personal Relationships and Fraternization directives [DAOD 5019-1].
Brig.-Gen. Ménard was charged with:
Master-Corporal Langlois was charged with:
The charges were laid following allegations made in May 2010 while Brig.-Gen. Ménard was the Task Force Commander in Afghanistan.
The CFNIS is an independent Military Police unit with a mandate to investigate serious and sensitive matters in relation to Department of National Defence (DND) property, DND employees, and CF personnel serving in Canada and abroad.
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Section 129 of the National Defence Act (RSC 1985, c. N-5) provides that:
Conduct to the Prejudice of Good Order and Discipline
Prejudicing good order or discipline
129. (1) Any act, conduct, disorder or neglect to the prejudice of good order and discipline is an offence and every person convicted thereof is liable to dismissal with disgrace from Her Majesty’s service or to less punishment.
Offence and contraventions prejudicial to good order and discipline
(2) An act or omission constituting an offence under section 72 or a contravention by any person of
(a) any of the provisions of this Act,
(b) any regulations, orders or instructions published for the general information and guidance of the Canadian Forces or any part thereof, or
(c) any general, garrison, unit, station, standing, local or other orders,
is an act, conduct, disorder or neglect to the prejudice of good order and discipline.
(3) An attempt to commit any of the offences prescribed in sections 73 to 128 is an act, conduct, disorder or neglect to the prejudice of good order and discipline.
(4) Nothing in subsection (2) or (3) affects the generality of subsection (1).
Not intended to cover offences elsewhere provided for
(5) No person may be charged under this section with any offence for which special provision is made in sections 73 to 128 but the conviction of a person so charged is not invalid by reason only of the charge being in contravention of this subsection unless it appears that an injustice has been done to the person charged by reason of the contravention.
Officer’s responsibility not affected
(6) The responsibility of any officer for the contravention of subsection (5) is not affected by the validity of any conviction on the charge in contravention of that subsection.
Section 130 of the National Defence Act allows for charges to be laid against military personnel for offences under the Criminal Code of Canada.
A political science professor at Memorial University developed a computer program to help predict when a cabinet minister will get fired.*
CBC Radio’s Central Morning Show interviewed Matthew Kerby for an broadcast on July 9.
Kerby’s indicators include:
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* added “minister”.
Not exactly destined to be a Christmas classic but a tale that is nonetheless as misshapen as the dental work of any Pogue’s front man.
The Telegram reported on Saturday that the provincial government’s ferry building program is behind schedule with more delays expected. One new ship is expected later this year with another to follow next year. More will come along after that.
Transportation minister Tom Hedderson didn’t have any explanations to offer for the delay:
"It's a catch-up game, and we understand that," Hedderson said in an interview.
"But the significant dollars that we've put in are making significant differences. We plan - and not always can we stick to the timeline - but we have made the commitment, and the money. It is going as fast as (it) can, given the circumstances."
He never said what the circumstances were just that they were there. Hedderson was, however, fulsome in his self-praise:
"Obviously, very simply, we've taken the bull by the horns," Hedderson said.
"It's not an easy task, especially when the shipbuilding industry had not been developed over the years as well."
These sorts of delays are now par for the course in the Williams administration. capital works projects and legislation routinely take years from the date they are announced. Cost over-runs mount at the same time for many of the capital projects.
The Telegram doesn’t really give a full accounting of the delays in the ferry work. Nonetheless, it is worthwhile to take a look at just exactly how long this construction work has been in the works. After all, Hedderson told the Telegram the vessel replacements might not be finished for another decade.
September 30, 2005: transportation and works minister Tom Rideout said that government was thoroughly examining options for building vessels in this province. Minister Rideout said, “My department is analyzing opportunities to build vessels in this province in terms of net economic benefits to the province, including job creation and economic development.”
February 16, 2007: Transportation and works minister John Hickey, said "Our plan to build these two new ferries is the first stage of our Vessel Replacement Strategy," At the time, Government anticipates the total cost of the two ferries will be approximately $25 million
November 15, 2007: The provincial government announced that Clarenville and Marystown Shipyards were to bid on ferry construction. Transportation and works minister Diane Whelan said that Clarenville Drydock Limited and Peter Kiewit and Sons of Marystown had been invited to submit bids on construction of two new provincial ferry vessels.
June 10, 2008: The provincial government awarded a $50.5 million contract to for the ferries. Peter Kiewit got the contract with a guarantee that 25% of the sub-contract work would go to Clarenville. The release refers to design work for a possible fourth ferry of the same size in addition to the three contemplated.
The Southern Gazette reported that work on the ferries was expected to begin immediately, with the first ferry due to be delivered by the end of next year (2009) and the second in the spring of 2010, notwithstanding any unforeseen delays.
December 17, 2008: Transportation and works minister Trevor Taylor told the House of Assembly:
Mr. Speaker, the member is correct, we did make an announcement back earlier this year on construction of two new ferries in – basically led in Marystown but part in Clarenville.
Mr. Speaker, discussions with Peter Kiewit and Sons have been proceeding. As the member may know, the construction of these two ferries is basically a design-build approach, where approximately 70 per cent of design has been done. The testing on the hull and what have you was done at the Centre for Ocean Dynamics, or the Centre for Marine Dynamics over at back of MUN.
Basically, where we are right now – actually, just earlier this morning there was a meeting between officials of the department and representatives from the Marystown Dockyard. Mr. Speaker, it is moving along. I hope that in the very near future we will be able to begin construction. There are some relatively minor, I would hope, matters around the design of the vessel and the performance of the vessel that Peter Kiewit and Sons have to commit to. When we sign off on the vessel, we want them to guarantee us that the ship is going to float and that the ship is going to perform and have the appropriate sea keeping as was required and that is what we are –
…
I can tell the member and the House that the propulsion systems for both ships have already been bought. They are here in a warehouse in St. John’s right now. As for cost overruns, Mr. Speaker, given the current state of the world economy and the declining demand for steel and cooper and everything else that you would be required to put into a ship, we would not expect any cost overruns. If anything, Mr. Speaker, our indication to Peter Kiewit & Sons is that we would probably see a decline in some of this stuff.
February 26, 2009: The Packet reported the Clarenville shipyard had pulled out of the ferry construction project for unexplained reasons.
June 10, 2010: With two ferries delayed, the third not begun and fourth in the design stages, the provincial government announces calls for expressions of interest in designing six new ferries. Note that, as part of the Summer of Love 2007 election campaign, the Williams administration made a large number of capital works announcements that didn’t happen for two to three years.
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Both Hydro-Quebec and NALCOR Energy support development of a $2.0 billion power line into New York city.
Newfoundland and Labrador's state energy company, Nalcor, is also behind the project. The line would run from Canada under Lake Champlain, into the eastern U.S.
For Nalcor, the lines would allow it to export electricity to the U.S. from a proposed dam to be built at Lower Churchill Falls.
"Anything that increases competition and market access we see favourably," said Ariane Connor, a Hydro-Quebec spokesperson.
NALCOR signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding on the project earlier this year.
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Not surprisingly the commentary on the provincial government’s foray into fisheries science was a clear favourite among readers. A mention on the Fisheries Broadcast on Monday - thanks John Furlong - certainly didn’t hurt to bring more attention to it. Leading the Broadcast is a pretty big deal.
Two related posts – one from 2008 (#6) and another on the oceans “strategy” consultation (#10) – also proved popular this week.
New Brunswick also proved popular with the Number Two post on the decision in NB this week to study a possible second reactor at Lepreau. Ditto #5.
And then, there’s the post on economic issues in central Newfoundland (#3). There’s an underpinning theme in this, ably summarised by a regular reader in a comment on another post: “What drives "growth" in our province, presently? The GDP from Oil and govt spending, and the inflationary housing market. One of those factors is beyond our control, the other two are largely artificial.”
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Friday’s labour force data from Statistics Canada got a fair bit of news time, largely for the reported drop in employment in Newfoundland and Labrador of 8,100.
It’s hot on the heels of an equally large jump in employment the month before.
Month to month fluctuations don’t necessarily mean very much of anything. And in fact if you look at the last couple of months compared to say figures dating back to march 2007, you can easily see that the big rise and big fall in employment could just be an anomaly.
What’s more noticeable when you look at these long term figures is that while the number of employed people is up again, the total labour force is the highest it has been in the past three years. Whether these people have been living here and have returned to the labour force or whether they’ve shifted here from somewhere else, there are more people available for work.
Rough appraisal: The economy has struggled to regain lost ground during the recession. At the same time, the available labour force has grown hence the unemployment rate remains high.
Take a look at a couple of other numbers in the Statistics Canada survey to see some other points of interest.
First, the estimated population – that is those 15 years of age and over - remains pretty steady at a little over 430,000.
Second, of those, only 59% participate in the labour force. That’s the lowest rate in the country.
Third, the employment rate – that is, the percentage of employed people as a part of the labour force - is one of the lowest in the country. Other provinces beat that by a good 10 points.
Now if you look at the provincial government’s own figures for May (likely to soon disappear in favour of a more recent update), you’ll see that they use higher numbers in their estimates. The overall trending is likely the same.
One important thing to notice from the provincial government’s assessment is where the job growth came in May. Growth came in health and social services, accommodations and trade. The drops came in manufacturing, information, culture and recreation and in business.
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Revised to correct typos and improve readability.
The Newfoundland and Labrador economy shed 8,100 jobs in June, erasing gains posted in May. That’s according to figures release on Friday by Statistics Canada.
Overall, the Canadian economy gained 93,000 jobs in June.
Compared to June 2009, the province has gained 4,400 jobs.
According to Statistics Canada, the labour force dropped to 256,500 in June compared to 263,100 in May.
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