08 September 2010

Cruise ends abruptly in St. John’s

Passengers on a 335 day circumnavigation of the globe that began in March got a surprise on Tuesday as they arrived in St. John’s, Newfoundland only to be told the cruise was ending early.

They were put ashore with no word of a refund.

Ship Photo SPIRIT OF OCEANUS Cruise West, the Seattle-based company that owned the 120 passenger Spirit of Oceanus, seen at right in an online stock photo, sold the vessel overnight.  The company is in the midst of restructuring.  The new owners did not plan to continue the cruise. 

One passenger from the world cruise e-mailed a message to the Seattle Times saying:

“Cruise West's flagship, the 'Spirit of Oceanus,' has been sold to an unnamed party and the passengers (including myself) are being put ashore at St. John's, Newfoundland. No word yet on refunds”

A similar e-mail sent to the website cruisecritic.com included this information:

"So far, we know very little; all we've been told is that the ship has been sold and the around-the-world cruise is over, as of tomorrow morning."

Spirit of Oceanus is currently secured pier side in St. John’s harbour inside a security fence.

- srbp -

Transparency and Accountability: speeches

We live in a funny country.

The Clerk of the Privy Council – Canada’s top federal public servant – posts copies of his speeches to the Internet and broadcasts the fact via Twitter.

Meanwhile, a politician who got elected on a platform of openness, transparency and accountability, wants to charge somebody thousands upon thousands – it started at $10K and has dropped downward – for copies of his public speeches.

And – if that weren’t enough – the politician then bitches publicly about the fact somebody wants copies of his speeches.

Come to think of it, the country isn’t funny.

Some of the people in it are.

Hysterically funny.

- srbp -

The Not-So-Great Escape

Police and news media described two men who escaped from provincial prison on Tuesday as “violent”  or as having convictions for offences involving violence.

All media report that someone – presumably provincial prison guards - a small white car acting suspiciously near the prison.  As one spokesperson described to CBC Radio’s mid-day show, the suspicious activity involved driving around an area that is basically deserted except for the prison.

If provincial prison officials noticed the car, did they call the local police detachment before they discovered the escape?

And if VOCM is correct, the pair escaped by slipping under a fence. Apparently no one ever heard of burying the bottom part of the fence below ground level in order to frustrate the mile-like behaviour of some criminals.

That’s interesting because a 2008 report on the province’s prisons noted the province’s prison system suffered from weak security, aging infrastructure  and management problems. A CBC news story on the report includes a link to a copy of the entire report, complete with the faulty redactions of the version originally release by the provincial justice department.  The blacked out sections can be read by anyone with basic computer skills.

- srbp -

07 September 2010

Who speaks for cabinet?

Apparently, a newly elected backbench government member of the House of Assembly who also sports a new title of “Legislative Assistant”. Here’s a story that ran in the Western Star on September 3:

The province is working toward an emergency phone system that meets its needs.

So says Paul Davis, MHA for Topsail and legislative assistant to the minister of Municipal Affairs, adding that a committee of senior officials was struck early in 2009 and charged with the task of preparing a request for proposals for a feasibility study into a provincewide [sic] enhanced 911 system.

The province as a cabinet minister responsible for this.  Her name is Diane Whelan.

There is one – there may be two – officially designated alternate ministers able to speak authoritatively on behalf of cabinet when the minister is not available.

In some cases, the deputy minister of the municipal affairs department could speak on the record about government plans. 

There is also a very senior official responsible for emergency services  - called the chief executive officer, but he’s equivalent to a deputy minister - who would be able to deal with this inquiry about province-wide 911 service.  

There’s also an assistant deputy minister for fire and emergency services.

Now if Paul was a parliamentary secretary, then he’d have the to speak on behalf of the government and  - in effect  - on behalf of cabinet about the government’s policy intention.  There used to be a minute of council in the 1980s that set out the duties, responsibilities and powers of a parliamentary secretary.

What about legislative assistants?  They are pretty shadowy creatures.  There’s not even any official public list of how many government backbenchers carry around this extra title. Sometimes they just pop up attending events on behalf of ministers.  

Sometimes, apparently, they can speak about what government is doing.

But on what legal basis do they do anything at all?

One has to wonder as well on what basis backbenchers like Paul Davis get elevated to some sort of pseudo-cabinet job – speaking on behalf of a minister and the government – within only a figurative few days of getting elected while other capable backbenchers just languish. 

It’s all very odd.

Very odd, indeed.

- srbp -

Process Stories, or real insiders don’t gab

A piece this week in the Hill Times this week conjures up images of a West Wing episode. The night of Jed Bartlet’s re-election, some guy turns up on the major networks purporting to be a Democratic Party insider. The guy claims he advised Bartlet on issues during the campaign that turned out to be crucial to victory.

Only thing is the guy wasn’t really an insider.  Rather he was a pollster Bruno Gianelli hired to do some polling in one part of one state.  The guy knew nothing but he talked a good game and the networks ate up his story.

The Hill Times story quotes an unidentified ‘Liberal insider” as saying:

"They can't win. If you go province-by-province and riding-by-riding, what does it give you? I know the spin will be that the cross-country tour elevated Iggy, and the long-gun and census stuff pulled Harper down, so now we're tied. But when the crunch comes and people are going to vote, I don't think—whether they had to fill in a long-form census or not—I don't think it's going to be a serious factor…".

Someone actually so far inside any political party as to know what the leadership team is actually thinking:

  1. wouldn’t discuss it publicly, and,
  2. wouldn’t talk the sort of pure crap contained in this article.

You can tell the “insider” is full of crap by this simple paragraph:

In Newfoundland, for example, if Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Danny Williams "goes whole hog" and puts his support behind the federal Conservatives in the next election campaign, the Tories could win five of the province's seven seats, the insider said. Liberal MP Siobhan Coady's St. John's South-Mount Pearl riding and Scott Andrews' riding in Avalon are the most at risk.

Right off the bat, this anonymous character predicts the Tories would gain five seats in Newfoundland and Labrador, but only names two that might change hands.  Where are the other three?

Any person who actually knew what happened on the ground in Newfoundland and Labrador  - as opposed to the bullshit - wouldn’t claim for one second that Danny Williams could turn the tide and suddenly have everyone vote for a party Williams himself savaged not so long ago. 

The simple reason is that Danny Williams didn’t do it the last time.

All Danny Williams did in 2008 was strangle the Conservative vote.

Well, for the most part he strangled it.  In St. John’s East, Tories turned out en masse for Danny’s old law partner, Jack Harris.  The Liberal vote there collapsed as well, giving Harris a giant majority. Don’t count on that one changing hands back to the Conservatives.

In St. John’s South-Mount Pearl, a sizeable number of Conservative voters actually rejected Danny’s instructions and turned out to vote for the New Democrat.  That’s right.  Even though Danny Williams’ cabinet ministers turned out for Liberal Siobhan Coady, a sizeable number of rank and file Conservatives in the riding actually made a choice for the New Democrat.  In other ridings they just stayed home.

But in SJSMP, they voted for the New Democrat as a protest over Conservative ministers actively campaigning for their hated enemy, les rouges.  Call it a hold over from the 1949 Confederation racket if you want, but Conservative townies tend to vote for the New Democrats rather than Liberals if the can’t vote for their own guy.

Put a stronger Conservative candidate in play and this riding might change its colours.  Then again, it might not.  If you apply the current poll configuration to old votes, the riding tended to vote Liberal more than Conservative more recently.  What usually made the difference in the old configuration was the solid blue voting along what is now known as the Irish loop.  Even losing coming out of St. John’s and Mount Pearl, the Conservative would go over the top as the Southern Shore went solidly Conservative.

One of the other key differences might be the New Democrat candidate. If the NDP run a candidate with a strong enough profile and the right messaging, he could split the blue vote. Yes, that seems counterintuitive for people who think of voting only in left-right terms – like the “insider” apparently -  but the distinction could be important in the next federal election.

Another factor to watch would be the impact of migration on the vote. The old Conservative stronghold in Avalon has moved to the metro St. John’s region.  Where they live now could have a huge impact on the vote in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl as well as neighbouring Avalon.

In 2008, the fight turned out to be a straight fight between the Liberals and the Conservatives.  You’d have to do a poll by poll breakdown to see where the Conservatives lost votes and where they picked up.  The New Democrats were a distant third, but they did increase their vote sizeably. They won’t have the Conservative Family Feud to count on this time and those extra 2400 votes the NDP gained last time might swing to one of the other parties.

None of that takes into account the value of incumbency.

Nor does it take into account the fact that in 2004 and 2006 – when Williams and his party actively supported Conservatives across the province – the best the Conservatives could do is win the same two seats they usually win. In 2008, though, Williams wiped out the Conservative vote and In St. John’s East in particular he may have locked that one in New Democrat hands for a while.  Conservative insiders –real insiders – are likely thinking that with friends like that…well, you know where that goes.

So that none of that looks even remotely like a scenario where the Old Man is going to hand his old enemy Steve five easy seats. And it gets even harder to see the “insider” scenario if you realise the farther one gets from St. John’s, the harder it is to elect a federal Conservative in Newfoundland and Labrador, even with the enthusiastic help of a guy whose strongest supporters are still found among townies.

Of course, the “insider’’ assessment only works on any level if you continue to think that Danny Williams remains as popular as he ever was, even within his own party.  As the insider aptly shows by his or her appearance of knowing things, appearances can be deceiving. 

The 2008 Family Feud did its most damage within the Conservative Party itself.  Even having Danny Williams call off the feud  or claim that he leads a Reform-based Conservative Party might not be enough to win back the enthusiastic support of Conservatives who voted Blue long before Williams was a gleam in his own eye. Those are the people he screwed with in 2008 and those people didn’t like it one bit.

Williams himself also hinted recently at internal political problems with his party.  And let’s not forget that earlier this year, someone dropped a dime on his little plan to scoot south secretly to have heart surgery.

To be fair, though, the one part of the scenario the Liberal “insider” didn’t mention is another one:  what might happen in one of the ridings if Danny Williams himself decided to take a shot at federal politics.

That wouldn’t change the federal Conservatives’ chances a great deal in Newfoundland and Labrador, but it would make the nomination fight in one riding a lot more interesting than it might otherwise be.

Wonder which riding it might be?

St. John’s East is already safely in the hands of his old friend and law partner. Odds are the Old Man wouldn’t run there.

But he does own a sizeable house in Avalon, the seat once held by his political nemesis, John Efford.

Hmmm.

The Old Man jumping to federal politics.

Maybe the Hill times wasn’t speaking with a Liberal after all.

Their assessment sounds more like what one would get from a member of the Old Man’s crew.

- srbp -

03 September 2010

Baby Torque

Perceptions can sometimes be influenced by how information is presented.

Prices are an easy example.  Saying that something is $9.99 somehow gets interpreted by people as being closer to nine dollars than to $10.  Sure we understand the concept, but for some reason, people tend to round numbers down sometimes.

Some bullshit artists passing themselves off as media trainers have been known to suggest using kilometres than miles for measurement if you want things to appear farther away.  Like say a potential environmental hazard from a sensitive spot.

In a news conference on Thursday, the province’s largest health authority passed out some information on how many pregnant women and how many newborns wound up being sent to hospitals on the mainland because of an overload in the neonatal intensive care unit at Eastern Health.

The Telegram reported on the newser.  It’s a straight-up account of the information presented by Eastern Health. In one part of the report, there is some information about statistics on what they seem to call “diverts”:
…from June 2008 to July 2010 the health authority transferred 15 mothers and nine babies out of the province…
Over a two year period, Eastern sent a total of 15 women and nine infants to other hospitals. The CBC online version of the story gives the same information at the end of the piece.  They just broke it down into two periods of 12 months each.

But now we get to the curious bit.  That’s where we find out how many infants and pregnant women are now outside the province since July 2010.

Here’s the way the Telegram put it:
From July 31 to Sept. 1, 12 mothers and three babies have been transferred to health care facilities in Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Ontario and Quebec.
CBC gave the information by talking about what happened “since July 31.”

So here’s the thing:  how many months are covered by that period in Eastern sent 12 pregnant women for care at hospitals outside the province?

Quick scan and you might say three.

Then it might dawn on you that there is something in between July 31 and September 1.

It’s called the month of August.

In a single month, Eastern shipped almost as many women and babies out of the province for care as in the
two years prior.

The specific time frame the Telegram used is actually taken, almost word for word, from the Eastern Health news release:
Since implementing divert on July 31, up to September 1, Eastern Health has transferred 12 moms and 3 babies to facilities outside of the province.
The release itself is a curious mixture of sterile jargon on the one hand – calling the practice “being on divert” – and the rather folksy and familiar practice of calling the pregnant women involved “moms” on the other.  It also follows a fairly standard provincial government formula of not putting substantive information in the first few paragraphs.  News releases, you may recall, should follow the convention of putting the big idea right there at the beginning, usually in the first sentence.

Rather, the most important information in this bit of writing  - according to Eastern Health  - is that Eastern provided an update. That’s not only the first sentence, it’s also the headline.  Double whammy to reinforce their main point.

The second sentence has some potentially relevant detail, namely why they are shipping people out of the province.

Then there’s a quote from Vickie Kaminski.  But it isn’t until you get to the third paragraph that you start to get any sense of exactly how significant this whole issue is.

Then there is more background, detail and filler until you get to the end of the things more than two pages later.  That’s a gigantic news release by any standards.  Government and its agencies apparently have no shortage of words when they need them.

In thinking about this news release and news conference you might also be interested in thinking about what the key idea was that Eastern wanted to convey.  What was it about this whole situation that Vickie and her team wanted you to remember?

According to the news release, it was that they gave an update.  That’s the main idea because that’s the first sentence.

According to the Telegram, the big news was this:
The president and CEO of Eastern Health says it will likely be December before pressure eases up on the Janeway Children’s Hospital neonatal intensive-care unit (NICU).
CBC put it this way:
Newfoundland and Labrador's largest health authority is reassuring expectant mothers that everything is being done to protect the health of their babies despite a shortage of equipment and staff that is forcing pregnant women and newborns out of the province for care.
NTV – and the biggest audience in the province – led with a statement in the introduction that the health authority will cover costs.

For good measure, here’s the first sentence of VOCM’s story:
Eastern Health is working to ensure both nurses and mothers are well in light of a situation at the Janeway's Neonatal Intensive Care Unit.
One newser.

Five completely different news ledes.

And the one from the regional health authority itself is – just guessing here – not the takeaway Eastern Health itself had in mind. The Telly one is most likely the one they’d least like to see and NTV’s account – while accurate – focuses on a huge negative aspect of the story rather than carry the message that the authority is concerned primarily with its patients' health and well-being.

Interestingly enough, the CBC online version begins with what is most like Kaminski’s key idea. VOCM got it as well, in a much pithier way.

They found it in the last two sentences of the second paragraph, in the quote from Vicki Kaminski.  But even then it wasn’t the first bit of Kaminski’s quote:
I want to assure all expectant mothers that their safety and the safety of their babies are of utmost concern for us. We are closely monitoring the situation and will arrange a transfer if required, to ensure that the appropriate level of care is provided to mothers and their babies.”
The release should have started with the assurance because Care is Job 1.

Then they should have described the situation that led to the decision to “divert”:
  • Almost as many high risk pregnancies and sick newborns in a single month as they had in two whole years before coupled with
  • Staff issues
And then there should have been the list of actions taken;
  • full cost reimbursement
  • recruiting and training
  • administrative steps to increase trained staff etc
And then an update on the ones from August.  This shows, among other things, the extent to which the situation is being managed and that people are being cared for appropriately.

Anything more than a page and a half was too much because busy reporters don’t have time to dissect two and bit pages of stuff.

Perception is affected by how information is presented.

- srbp -

02 September 2010

Info commissioners and ombudsmen call for open government

Information commissioners, privacy commissioners and ombudsmen from across Canada issued a call on September first for government sin the country to adopt open government principles.

They issued the call from their joint meeting held this year in Whitehorse.

Specifically, the commissioners resolved:

1. The Commissioners endorse and promote open government as a means to enhance transparency and accountability which are essential features of good governance and critical elements of an effective and robust democracy.

2. The Commissioners call on the federal and all provincial and territorial governments to declare the importance of open government, including specific commitments for stronger standards for transparency and participation by the public.

3. Governments should build access mechanisms into the design and implementation stages of all new programs and services to facilitate and enhance proactive disclosure of information.

4. Through ongoing consultations with the public, governments should routinely identify data sources and proactively disclose information in open, accessible and reusable formats. Public access to information should be provided free or at minimal cost.

5. In implementing open government policies, the federal and all provincial and territorial governments should give due consideration to privacy, confidentiality, security, Crown copyright and all relevant laws.

- srbp -

Digging (up) the past

Geologists exploring western Newfoundland have discovered a fossil belonging to an amphibian that live about 325 millions years ago. (cbcnl)

The 12 to 15 centimetre long bone is the first find of its kind in Newfoundland and Labrador. The Gulf News quoted Dr. Liam Herringshaw, one of the researchers, who explained why:

“In terms of land animals, there’s almost nothing. Partly because most of the rocks are too old, there are no dinosaur-bearing rocks on the island of Newfoundland,” he said. “ This would seem to be the first evidence we’ve got of really ancient land animals. The rocks we were looking at were 325 million years old and that’s 75 million years before dinosaurs appear, so it’s a pretty early vertebrate.”

Meanwhile, in Sheshatshiu, workers building new homes in the Innu community  unearthed evidence of aboriginal inhabitation of the community 3,000 years ago. The artifacts, including weapons and tools, add to modern knowledge of human presence in the area.

- srbp -

01 September 2010

Hebron awards FEED-EPC contract

On August 27, 2010, the consortium developing the Hebron oilfield offshore Newfoundland and Labrador awarded the project’s front-end engineering and design contract to WorleyParsons.

ExxonMobil is the lead partner on the project.

Under the contract, ExxonMobil may, at its discretion, award WorleyParsons with the project’s Engineering, Procurement and Service contract.

According to the project timetable, the consortium are anticipating project sanction in early 2012.

- srbp -

Throw money at it: provgov to study garbage

gus Sometimes it seems as if Gus Portokalos’ brother wound up running the Newfoundland and Labrador government.

While Gus wanted to put window cleaner on everything, Gus’ imaginary brother in the provincial government likes to throw money at it.

The most recent example is a fund set up with a research centre at Memorial University. There is now $300,000 available to probe garbage.

Apparently, there are “unique waste diversion challenges” in Newfoundland and Labrador. 

So now the fine folks at the province’s university can get up to $15,000 to study ways of “reducing the amount of waste created, reusing materials and products, recycling or reprocessing waste, recovering some useful benefit from waste, and disposing of waste that has no further economic or environmental benefit.”

Ummm.

Right.

And these sorts of thing, the sorts of thing they’ve been doing everywhere else for decades, are not only unknown to people in Newfoundland and Labrador but we must fund university-level research to crack the garbage code that apparently bedevils us.

Once the researchers produce answers to the refuse puzzle, the second pillar of the anti-trash strategy will cut in:  they will tell people about it. And maybe, once they’ve told people about it, those people might come up with suggestions to – in the words of the guy running the research centre -  “shape research questions, leading to new ideas which then encourage further research to achieve implementation.”

So they’ll think about something.  Then they’ll tell people what they thought about.  And then the people they told will come up with new things to think about.  So the people doing the thinking will go back and think some more about the stuff they’ve been told to think about.

And maybe at some point, after all this thinking and talking and thinking and talking, someone might be able to do something with the garbage.

The technical term for this approach is GIGO:  garbage in, garbage out.

People unused to the refined language of the government and the university will only look at the complete lack of action on waste reduction since 2003  and think “circle jerk”.

And they will be right.

This is the administration, after all,  that is now renowned for its inability to do stuff.

This is the administration that took almost four years to take the waste management strategy of their predecessors, photocopy it, move all the target dates back a decade and then announce it as their own, brand-new strategy.

Just in time for an election.

And now three years after that announcement, they toss money at a bunch of people to supposedly figure out what to do with garbage.

This is the same administration that gave a consultant some unspecified hunk of public money to spend 18 months studying ways of keeping young people in the province. The result of the cogitation was truly Earth-shattering in its inventiveness:

1.  Create jobs.

2.  Put services in major centres. Like maybe St. John’s, Gander, Grand Falls-Windsor and Corner Brook?

3.  Link education to the labour market.

4.  Build “an understanding of the benefits of immigration and diversity through public education, community dialogue and strengthened curriculums in the education system.”

Well, d’uh.

And it even came with a spelling mistake in the bit that talks about education.

Brilliant!

There is no way that anyone could possibly invent this policy.  It is, after all, nothing more than a hideous self-parody of an administration that is obviously lacking any sense of direction.

Reductio ad argentum, indeed.

- srbp -

Parsons back in custody

The Royal Canadian Mounted Police arrested fugitive Andrew Parsons on Tuesday night.

Following up on a tip and surveillance, RCMP officers found Parsons in a Marystown house where he was hiding along with a woman from Ontario who allegedly had come to the province to assist Parsons.  Parsons ran from the house.  Officers chased him into nearby woods where he was cornered with the help of police dogs.

Parsons escaped custody on Saturday but the police waited until Sunday to issue a news release notifying the public.

Parsons is scheduled to appear in Provincial Court at Grand Bank on Wednesday.

- srbp -

While the local media are a bit behind the curve,  Melissa Lee DeClerk pleaded guilty today on  a charge of attempting to assist Parsons in his escape.  

Provincial Court Judge Harold Porter accepted a joint submission on sentencing from the Crown prosecution service and Defence counsel and sentenced her to one week in jail and one year's probation.

The August Traffic round-up

Were you one of the 12, 969 13,034 people who viewed 18,744 18,828 Bond Papers pages in August?  If not, then you missed out on these, the 10 most-viewed pages:

  1. Orcas and minkes whales off Newfoundland:  video
  2. Ah, that explains everything…
  3. Jerome! if you want to…
  4. Williams, Dexter ink secret energy deal…but with whom?
  5. The Old Man, Old Habits and Old Chestnuts
  6. Court docket now online
  7. Government by Fernando (2006)
  8. Five years of secret talks on the Lower Churchill:  the Dunderdale audio
  9. Bell 206 Crash – Photo Interpretation (2009)
  10. I knew Marilyn Monroe (2008)

An understandable month and a totally bizarro month at the same time. 

The Orcas and minke videos were hugely popular and not surprisingly that came in as the top post of the month.

Whether it’s energy deals, energy non-deals, and the whole racket with Quebec, you can count on those posts being popular.

No surprise, either,  that people are still keen to hear deputy premier Kathy Dunderdale on the story the mainstream media have ignored for almost exactly one whole year.

The Number Six post is just a sign of the number of lawyers – or their clients – who visit BP to keep up on the local political and courthouse scene.

But in the bizarro world of Newfoundland and Labrador politics, nothing came as  such a shock as discovering that people loved a 2006 post, “Government by Fernando.”  In the same vein, the Number 10 post is an old one about a celebrity too, this time Lindsay Lohan.

Every month people find something intriguing or entertaining at Bond Papers.

There’s no way of knowing in advance exactly what they’ll read and that makes it pure fun.

- srbp -

31 August 2010

Bury my lede at Muskrat Falls

The Proponent [NALCOR Energy] has failed to justify the Project in energy and economic terms and has not provided an assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction in possible export markets as required in the detailed criteria provided in the EIS Guidelines.

You can find that statement as an attachment to a letter, dated January 26, 2010,  from the joint review panel appointed to conduct the environmental review of the Lower Churchill project.

The attachment lists, in painful detail, the areas of the NALCOR submissions to date that come up so short that the panel could not commence full public hearings.

But just look at those words:  “failed to justify”. They tell you, in the clearest way possible, why the Lower Churchill project is on hold. That’s something premier Danny Williams didn’t admit, incidentally until May 2010, but it is true.

NACLOR failed to justify the project on energy or economic grounds.

And those deficiencies are the reason the provincial cabinet is not even close to giving the thumbs up to start construction.

Forget the Premier’s claims about Hydro-Quebec. They are simply a diversion, a smokescreen. They are, as noted here many times, a complete nonsense given all that is in the public domain and the Premier’s own comments in April 2009.

As a result of that letter from the joint review panel, NALCOR spent another eight months pulling together more information in an effort to meet the review panel requirements.  NALCOR submitted the information to the joint review panel on August 9 and the panel began distributing the information to interested parties for comment on August 12.

Interestingly, that’s the same day Premier Danny Williams held a surprise news conference to accuse the Government of Quebec of interfering in a funding request to Ottawa for a project that, as the public subsequently learned doesn’t actually exist. As it turns out, a power line between Nova Scotia and the island of Newfoundland is merely a hypothetical project that depends on construction of the Lower Churchill. Still, the local media dutifully reported his claims without question and the story went national just like a spark touched to dry embers in the hot, dry woods of a central Canadian summer.

Sheer bunk though, all the same.

You’ll also find that quote from the environmental panel in a Telegram news story, dated Saturday August 21*, under the headline “Nalcor weighs risk and reward”. The article starts out with this line:

The province’s energy corporation has laid out a possible development scenario for the Lower Churchill.

That isn’t news, by the way, even though the most important idea is supposed to go right at the start of a news story.  The development scenario and the rest of the stuff at the front and in the middle of the article is exactly the same stuff that’s been talked about by NALCOR and its predecessor dating back to the 1990s.  It’s the development scenario laid out in the original environmental submission this time around. The complete document record of the review is available online.

You have to read all the way to the end of the Telegram article, though, to find any reference to the environmental panel’s January decision.  And even then the fact the panel told NALCOR their work was fundamentally lacking is presented as if it were merely the innocent stimulus to further action by glorious team at NALCOR:

Timelines associated with the joint federal-provincial environmental assessment panel have dragged on longer than expected.

The panel said Nalcor’s previous filings were lacking.

A pesky inconvenience at worst.

But as a result of this little setback, NALCOR did all this wonderful work, which the Telegram has now told us all about.  Now the panel will “now assess those filings before deciding how to proceed.”

Yay, NALCOR.

In the news business, they call it burying the lede.  That’s a news story that starts out with secondary information and puts the main point farther down the piece.  News stories are usually written with the most important thing at the top and the least important information at the bottom.  Some call the style an inverted pyramid because the big part is on top.

The style evolved over time and it has a number of advantages.  People skimming quickly through a newspaper can get the main point of each story by only reading the first sentence or first paragraph.  Editors running the story who are also jammed for space can safely hack off stuff at the end without losing the important information.

What makes this Telegram story stand out is that it doesn’t just bury the news, it puts the kernel of hard news in a place where editors would normally cut.  Not only that, but people may not even read all the way to the end.  And if they only read the first bit, they’d be fooled into believing that everything is hunky dory with the Lower Churchill when – as a matter of fact – it isn’t.

This Telegram story could easily have been written in the provincial government’s communications department.  But it wasn’t.  And that’s where an article like this  gets it’s persuasive impact on readers.

In the marketing world, a favourable news story is worth considerably more than any amount of paid advertising. That’s because the news story comes with the perception that the news is vetted by a reporter and a layer of editors and ultimately the producer or owner. If it is in the paper or on the air, it must be newsworthy and the information in it implicitly comes with a stamp of truthfulness.

Research tends to bear out that perception.  A 2008 Ipsos poll of Canadians reported that 69% of respondents had trust and confidence in conventional Canadian news media to report the news “fully, accurately and fairly”.  A more recent Gallup poll of American audiences suggests that Americans have considerable faith in conventional news media, even if it is lower than Canadian.

The distortion of reality, the burying in a wider sense, isn’t just confined to this sort of writing. You can find it as well in the stuff that doesn’t get reported locally at all, ever. A good example of that more recently was a story in the Toronto Star on energy issues.  It appeared five days before the Telegram puff piece on NALCOR and it goes to one of the major problems with the Lower Churchill project:  a lack of markets.

The massive, state-of-the-art Bécancour cogeneration electricity plant is capable of powering 550,000 homes. At the moment, however, the only action its gas turbines are getting comes from the dehumidifiers that prevent them from rusting out.

Apart from providing steam for an industrial park neighbour, the plant, 150 kilometres northeast of Montreal, sits largely idle, victim of policies and planning in a province overrun with electricity.

Such is the extraordinary electricity surplus in Quebec that several hundred million dollars are being spent and lost each year dealing with the problem, and consumers are footing the bill.

Hydro-Quebec has so much surplus capacity that it can afford to shutter this plant and others.  The company is still building more hydro and wind capacity.  it forecasts a surplus for 2011 that is enough to power 77 billion 100 watt light bulbs for an hour.

Try and think of the last time any one of the conventional local media reported any discussion of the Lower Churchill that did anything but report government pronouncements or reaction to government pronouncements?

Keep trying. 

There might be one or two, but by far they are outweighed with the sort of stuff the Telegram ran in late August burying the news about the Lower Churchill from last January under a mountain of cotton-candy fluff.

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* 2009 average paid circulation for the Saturday Telegram was 40,166 according to the Canadian Newspaper Association.

Transcontinental claims the Telegram reaches 78% of adults in the St. John’s census metropolitan area and 88% of “managers and professionals.”

Updated 0848 to clarify a sentence.

30 August 2010

Corner Brook soldier dies of wounds rec’d in Afghanistan

pinksen Corporal Brian Pinksen, 21, a soldier with Second Battalion, the Royal Newfoundland Regiment, died at a hospital in Germany today of wounds received in Afghanistan.

Corporal Pinksen was wounded eight days ago while on a foot patrol in Nakhonay, a village 18 kilometres southwest of Kandahar.  An improvised explosive device planted by insurgents detonated, wounding Pinksen and another soldier. Both were serving with the battle group centred on 1st Battalion, the Royal Canadian Regiment.

From the Canadian Forces release:

Cpl Pinksen was treated on scene and evacuated by helicopter to the Role 3 Multi-National Medical Facility at Kandahar Airfield then subsequently moved to the Landstuhl Regional Medical Centre in Germany.  He arrived in Ramstein, Germany on 25 August and succumbed to his injuries earlier today at the Landstuhl Regional Medical Center.

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Related:

Math problem: oil production, oil prices and oil royalties

“Back of the envelope calculations”,  a recent Telegram story assured us all, “put royalties for the first three months of the [current] fiscal year on pace with government’s $2.1-billion target.”

But, the Telegram headline says, that’s because “surging production” is offsetting “softer” prices.

Unfortunately, the Telegram didn’t see fit to show us the back of the envelope so no one can tell exactly how they came to that conclusion. It must be a provincial government envelope, though because the numbers don’t quite add up.

As forecast

As it looks,  revenue projections are likely to be on target with the forecast.

The provincial government’s oil royalty is a function of oil prices and production. The Telegram reported  - quite rightly - that the provincial government forecast oil royalties of $2.1 billion based on total production of 90 million barrels and and average price of oil at US$83 a barrel.  The provincial government also allowed the Canadian dollar would be close enough to the American dollar that there wouldn’t be any sizeable windfall from a cheap Canadian dollar.

The Telegram also reported that oil production is on track to come in around 101 million barrels.  The offshore regulatory board’s actual figures for the first four months of 2010 (April to August) show oil on track to hit 99 million barrels. Still, that’s 10% above the government’s spring forecast.

As for crude oil prices, they have not averaged US$83.  The Telegram puts the average price of Brent crude at US$80 a barrel the week the story appeared. This is where it gets interesting.

For the first four months of the current fiscal year, Brent crude has averaged US$77.71 a barrel. That’s about six percent below forecast.  If you take out the April average of $84.98 – because it is the only month averaging above $80 dollars this year – you get an average price about 10% below the government’s forecast average.

With production above and price below, the one pretty much cancels out the other.

No surge

Production isn’t actually surging, though.  In fact, production at about 100 million barrels is only slightly above last year’s production total of around 97 million barrels. As for price, there’s no surge there either.  The average currently showing in 2010  - including April - is only about a dollar above the 2009 fiscal year average.

In other words, everything is tracking to bring in the same average price and the same yearly production as 2009. The provincial government forecast an increase in royalties to $2.1 billion from $1.8 billion. 

All three fields should be in payout and according to the pre-2003 royalty deals, that means they’d be paying more to the provincial treasury.  Hibernia didn’t hit payout until June last year, so it appears the extra cash is solely the result of having the big field paying higher royalties for a whole year instead of just part of it.

That means that the slightly higher royalties are coming from old development deals, not from something happening to oil prices and production.

Still on track for another big cash deficit

And what does that mean for the provincial budget? if you relied only on the  Telegram story you might be fooled into believing that the provincial government might balance its books this year.  It might do so using accrual accounting, but there won’t likely be a balanced budget on a cash basis.

In fact, the current fiscal year looks a lot like the last one, including the fact everything is on track for another whopper of a cash shortfall.

For some unfathomable reason, the Telegram decided you didn’t need to know that the provincial government’s budget forecasts a cash deficit of nearly a billion dollars. Nor did they mention that last year the provincial government had a cash deficit of about $500 million. 

Instead, they left you with the Pollyanna-ish view that everything is looking great.

Maybe it is, but one thing is for sure:  it has nothing to do with “surging” oil production or “soft” oil prices.

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29 August 2010

Second escape from police, accused faces two sexual interference charges

A man who escaped police custody on the Burin Peninsula for the second time in two years is facing two charges of sexual interference and two charges of breaching probation orders.

The Provincial Court docket for Grand Bank shows that Andrew Kenneth Parsons is due back in court on Wednesday, September 1, 2010 for election and/or plea.  Parsons was remanded in custody last week.

But he won’t make that court date unless police can get him back in custody.

There’s no word on how Parsons managed to escape. This is the second time in as many years that Parsons did a runner from the Royal Canadian Mounted Police detachment in Marystown.

Media reports on the escape don’t give any indication of why police had Parsons in the nick. The Telegram quotes unnamed police sources as saying that Parsons is scheduled to appear on “a number of serious criminal offences.”

Nor do the local media reports have much else to say beyond giving Parsons’ physical description.

According to vocm.com, police said that Andrew Parsons is “not a threat to the public.” 

The Telly appears to have also gotten the same line on safety from police:

Parsons is not considered dangerous but the police said because of the nature of his charges, “there is a definite need for public concern.”

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Update:  Kudos to Glen Payette of CBC’s Here and Now for adding way more details to this story on a whole bunch of levels.  CBC Radio Noon got the details of the escape by interviewing the CBC division media relations officer.  Payette did the same thing, but he also added the guy’s crim record and – for the first time today – someone other than your humble e-scribbler reported what the guy’s been charged with.

A big part of this story, though, has been the bizarre approach B Division took to this escape and the news release.  For some unknown reason, they refused to say what the guy was charged with. 

CBC Radio Noon host Ramona Deering started the interview with the straightforward question of why the guy was in custody.  Media relations officer Staff Sergeant Boyd Merrill ducked the question referring only to the guy having been remanded in custody pending another court date on charges Merrill obviously wasn’t going to talk about.

Maybe they are sensitive about the escape.

Okay.

Well, if that’s the case, then the little darlings can get over that one pretty quick.  If you are going to traipse through the words looking for marijuana plants in some grow-op near St. John’s then you can suck it up and talk about a more embarrassing moment.

Sound media relations practice for organizations like the police is built on simple ‘just the facts’ story telling using – we can only hope – plain English instead of CopSpeak.   Ducking obvious questions or dancing around issues that are apparently quite simple (even if a wee bit embarrassing) just aren’t part of a good MR practice. 

And hey, reporting every possible tip or lead as if each was credible doesn’t balance out the credibility ledger.  At some point, people will start to wonder whether or not this guy is doing a third-rate send up of the Scarlet Pimpernel:  “They seek him here.  They seek him there.”

Statoil explores renewables

Norwegian energy company Statoil is expanding its interest in renewable energy.

The company plans to develop the world’s first floating offshore wind farm.  Possible sites include one off Maine, two off Scotland or another off Norway.

Statoil has other offshore wind farms already in development.

Meanwhile, in Newfoundland and Labrador, the provincial government is focusing its energy future on eventually developing a $15.5 billion hydroelectric megaproject.  According to the 2007 energy policy, everything else is on hold until the future of the Lower Churchill wet dream is settled.

Unfortunately, the future of the Lower Churchill, a.k.a. the Great White Whale, is also up in the air indefinitely.

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Maine’s energy future

Maine Governor John Baldacci can easily list off the elements of his state’s energy future.

“This year Maine signed a Memorandum of Understanding on tidal energy with Premier Dexter of Nova Scotia, on offshore energy research. There is a huge development in Eastport with the Portland-based Ocean Renewable Power Company. We can learn from each other and share our experiences with each other.

“We are working collectively as a region. It’s important that we are in sync, especially with the issues surrounding Hydro-Québec and New Brunswick’s nuclear plans.

Newfoundland and Labrador didn’t make the cut.

Wonder why not?

Maybe it has something to do with the current administration’s obsession with a $15.5 billion wet dream for which there are neither markets nor money.  There are plenty of other generation and transmission opportunities, smaller and more financially feasible, even on the island of Newfoundland. 

None will be developed  - including a connection from the island to Nova Scotia – unless it involves the Great White What of the Lower Churchill.

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28 August 2010

Danny Williams and the National Post: Fact Check

No surprise Danny’s miffed at the National Post. 

Nor is it any surprise that the most thin-skinned person on the planet  - short of someone actually without an epidermis at all - claims that it isn’t about him.

And it’s really absolutely not the least bit of a shock that between the two of them -Danny Williams and the National Post -  readers will wind up being about as in  touch with reality in Newfoundland and Labrador as people who get everything they know about the universe from Glenn Beck.

Rather than go through the errors and nose-pullers in detail let’s just take the biggest whopper for each of them:

For the Old Man, it would be the contention that “Abitibi operated in our province for 100 years”.

Sure 65% of the province’s population may have trouble with numbers, math, logic and reasoning but few likely would have listed the province’s best-known Rhodes scholar among the innumerate.

Those that did can go to the head of the line.

The Anglo-Newfoundland Development Company opened the Grand Falls paper mill in 1909.  Abitibi started operations in 1912 but not in Newfoundland and Labrador.

This is 2010.

Right off the bat, anyone with that information would know that it is absolutely utterly and totally impossible for a company that is 98 years old to have been in operation more than two years before it existed.

I am my own grandpa indeed.

But then you have to consider that Abitibi didn’t arrive in Newfoundland and Labrador until 1969, a fact noted in some of the AbitibiBowater bankruptcy proceedings and a point that has curiously escaped every single reporter in this province for the 18 months or so the Premier has been saying this complete bit of nonsense.

Even a Rhodes scholar ought to know that 100 is not 41.

As a result of his repeated numerical blunder, one must wonder if Danny actually reads anything laid in front of him, whether his high-priced help are really that incompetent, whether he cares about facts at all, or if what we see here is some combination of all three.

Now for the Post stuff:

Well, the name of the province is Newfoundland and Labrador but that’s really the smallest part of the problem with the Post editorial.

The rest of it is a litany of things that never happened, as Williams easily pointed out.  Most of his comments in reply were just the usual self-serving blather but there’s no denying that the  magnitude of the factual errors in the editorial would stun a herd of the hardest-headed mountain goats in British Columbia.

The easiest thing to do is take the biggest error:  “… time and again, Ottawa graciously bails Mr. Williams out from his blundering anyway.”

The idea that Canadians have paid for all Williams’ blunders is just foolish.

Sure he managed to score a couple of billion extra from the feds in 2005 but for the most part, the major blunders of his administration haven’t cost all taxpayers in the country a penny.

Only provincial taxpayers will bear the load – way more than $130 million – from the expropriation fiasco.  They’ll also be taking their proportionate chunk of the NAFTA settlement as well.

Only the taxpayers in Newfoundland and Labrador will be coping with the huge cash deficits Williams’ administration is racking up.  They’ll be the only ones dealing with the fall-out from a record of wild public spending even his own cabinet ministers agree is unsustainable.

His huge gift to Big Oil  - section 5.1 of the Hebron financial agreement - won’t affect Ottawa a tiny bit even if it makes the provincial government nothing more than a vassal of the oil companies on some issues.

In the end, though, the Post is still the Post.

But word is Danny is looking for a post-politics gig.

Maybe Kory should give him a call.

If the guy can handle a piece of chalk, there’s the makings of a new star in the Reform-based Conservative Party news heavens.

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