Jane Taber - Twit

As shallow goes, the Globe’s gossip columnist always seemed like a wading pool.

As it turns out, there wasn’t even water in it.

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Ok Go’s latest video – White Knuckles

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Creditors approve AbitibiBowater restructuring plan

The AbitibiBowater news release:

ABWTQ (OTC)

MONTREAL, Sept. 21 /CNW Telbec/ - AbitibiBowater is pleased to announce that the Company has received the necessary creditor approval for its plan of reorganization under chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code, except with respect to Bowater Canada Finance Corporation (BCFC), a special purpose company subsidiary with no operating assets, which has been excluded from the chapter 11 plan. The chapter 11 plan of reorganization received overwhelming support from creditors, both in dollar amount of claims and in number of claim holders who voted on the plan.

Having obtained the requisite votes from creditors, except with respect to BCFC, the Company and its subsidiaries will exclude BCFC from the process and proceed with plan confirmation. The Company does not believe that the exclusion of BCFC will affect the timing of its confirmation hearing that is scheduled to start on September 24, 2010, in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware.

"We are pleased to have received approval by the vast majority of creditors under the U.S. Bankruptcy Code for our chapter 11 plan of reorganization," stated David J. Paterson, President and Chief Executive Officer. "We appreciate the support for our plans of reorganization as we work to create a more sustainable and competitive organization."

As previously announced, on September 14, 2010, the Company received approval for its plan of reorganization from affected creditors under the Canadian Companies' Creditors Arrangement Act in Canada, except with respect to BCFC.

Subject to the satisfaction of certain conditions provided for in the plans of reorganization, AbitibiBowater continues to expect emergence from creditor protection this fall.

Details of the voting results under the chapter 11 plan of reorganization, including votes on a class-by-class basis, will be available through www.abitibibowater.com/restructuring.

AbitibiBowater produces a wide range of newsprint, commercial printing and packaging papers, market pulp and wood products. It is the eighth largest publicly traded pulp and paper manufacturer in the world. AbitibiBowater owns or operates 19 pulp and paper facilities and 24 wood products facilities located in the United States, Canada and South Korea. Marketing its products in more than 70 countries, the Company is also among the world's largest recyclers of old newspapers and magazines, and has third-party certified 100% of its managed woodlands to sustainable forest management standards. AbitibiBowater's shares trade over-the-counter on the Pink Sheets and on the OTC Bulletin Board under the stock symbol ABWTQ.

For further information: Investors: Duane Owens, Vice President, Finance, 864 282-9488; Media and Others: Seth Kursman, Vice President, Public Affairs, Sustainability & Environment, 514 394-2398, seth.kursman@abitibibowater.com

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Full of sound and fury

Public consultations on a strategy for “the inclusion of persons with disabilities” in society.

In the 21st century.

A strategy to include people with disabilities in society.

Another consultation to develop a strategy for early childhood education.

Novel idea.

41 cash announcements in the month of August alone, according to the Telegram editorial, a great many of which involved the announcement – yet again -  of earlier announcements.  In some others, announcements include money for new food carts in hospitals and nursing homes.

Announcement of a plan to install a new set of road scales in Labrador.

A gaggle of ministers and government members of the legislature visit a shipyard to look at construction of new ferries that have been in the works for most of the current administration’s tenure.

And then there’s the study of garbage.

This is a provincial government that talks more and more about less and less.

The reason is simple enough:  we are in a pre-election/pre-leadership period. We know that, all things being equal, there is an election in October 2011.  We also  know that Danny Williams will leave politics sometime over the next two to three years.

Now governments in either of those phases alone aren’t famous for doing much of anything new. Pre-election governments like to spend cash, as everyone in the province saw in 2007’s Summer of Love vote-buying orgy from the Reform-based Conservative Party currently running the local show.  Pre-leadership governments usually get caught up in the internal division as people jockey for position in the party leadership race.  And since they can’t get any agreement on any major initiative until someone winds up as leader, there is nothing knew likely to happen until the leadership issue is resolved. Well, nothing that is except spend money,

Governments in the double-whammy of pre-election and pre-leadership are rare.  But what they do is guarantee a unique kind of lowest-common-denominator politics.  Money is everywhere for everything.  In addition to that, you have the raft of consultations on things that are the sort motherhood issues not likely to raise controversy.  Inclusion?  Early childhood education?  These are hardly debatable subjects.

Even John Hickey  - seldom heard from any more - is getting in on the act. He’s got an information session scheduled for Churchill Falls.  Apparently there is something about the Northern Strategic Plan they haven’t heard yet.

You can tell these things are busy work, by the way.  First of all, there is that word strategy.  This is nothing more than the latest government cliche.  Second there is the schedule.  A good half of the consultations on childhood education take place in the afternoon, a time when the people most likely to be concerned about the subject are working.  As the video of the session from Mount Pearl showed, the room was nearly empty and two of those in the audience were cabinet minister Dave Denine and his executive assistant.

Added to this whirligig of deep thoughts are the early stages of a leadership racket.  Until lately, cabinet ministers seldom showed up to talk about anything substantial with anyone. Danny and Liz wouldn’t let them. But now education minister Darin King is on any radio station with a phone to discuss his early childhood education initiative.  Health minister Jerome! Kennedy is the face of health care spending.  Note the number of news stories about multiple sclerosis that described government spending as something Jerome! himself was doing personally.

Personally is the clue.  Cabinet government is normally collective government.  Sure there is a powerful front man, but cabinets wind up being committees that share the load of deciding on this problem or that one. Except of course, in the Danny Williams administration. It’s only natural that those who wish to replace The Old Man should work hard to be seen as the one person with an idea.

And while all of this consulting, and announcing and news conferencing is going on in public, not much else is happening.  No discussions about labour relations.  No talk about reforms to economic development policy, the fishery, a strategy to address problems in the labour force or anything else that might actually involve some serious discussion and tough choices that everyone in the province has a right to be involved in.

No.

That’s the sort of stuff that will have to wait until after the next election and Danny’s successor is firmly in place. Meanwhile, the people in government no one has heard much of in a while are busily sorting out the budget for 2011. 

That’s right. 

We are now half way through 2010 and it is usually around this time that government officials try and figure out what next year will look like.  For the past seven years that’s been pretty much Danny’s exclusive responsibility and odds are that’s where he’s been holed up lately.  He’ll work hard into the winter and make the big decisions well before sending old Tommy Marshall out for that biggest consultation farce, the one on the budget.

While the Old Man works quietly in the background on the stuff that involves real choices, government officials are wondering if you think that in 2010 we should find ways to allow people with disabilities to become fully contributing members of our society.

The busy-work will continue.  The number of news releases and consultations will only multiply as time goes by. It’s all part of an effort to make it seem like stuff is happening when, in truth, not much of consequence is. But it will certainly seem important, as only a Fernando Administration would allow. It is better, after all,  to look busy than to be busy.

And lest you doubt all this consider that coming soon to a motel meeting room or bingo hall near you, is a round table on that burning question on the minds of fish plant workers, and foresters and soccer moms everywhere -  puppy dogs: cute or what?

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Labour force indicators raise questions about economic health and competitiveness

In a recent Fraser Institute study of labour markets in North America, Newfoundland and Labrador came in 49th out of 60 overall.  The study measured performance in five indicators:

• average total employment growth,
• average private-sector employment growth,
• average unemployment rate,
• average duration of unemployment, and,
• average gross domestic product per worker.

The study also assessed the level of public sector employment, minimum wage rate, level of unionization, labour relations laws and what the study authors termed “other areas of concern”.

Here’s how Newfoundland and Labrador placed in nine of the categories for which there was a readily measurable score that compared jurisdictions straightforwardly.   

Some of these figures, like the private sector as a percentage of the labour force, will be very familiar to Bond Papers readers. Now there is some context for them that shows they are cause for concern not just in and of themselves but because they raise serious questions about the overall health of the economy and about the province’s competitiveness.

It should almost go with saying that anyone arguing for an increase in public sector employment is out of touch.

1. Average total employment growth (2005-2009):  38th place with 0.1%.  That’s the weakest of the Canadian provinces.  The next weakest was Nova Scotia with 0.5%.
2. Average private-sector employment growth (2005-2009):  34th place with 0.0%.
3. Average unemployment rate (2005-2009):  60th place with 14.5%.
4. Average duration of unemployment (2005-2009):  17th place with 14.9% of the unemployed being out of work for 27 weeks or longer.
5. Average GDP per worker (2005-2009):  eighth place with $134,494.
6. Average provincial public sector employment as share of total employment (2005-2009):  59th, with 24.8%.  Nevada and Pennsylvania topped the ranking with 9.4% and 9.5% respectively.  Only Saskatchewan beat out Newfoundland and Labrador for the bottom spot with 24.9%
7. Average public sector employment (fed/prov/mun) as a share of total employment:  60th place with 28.2%
8. Average minimum wage as percent of GDP per worker (2004-2008):  10th place, 12%.
9. Unionized work force as a percentage of total work force (2005-2009):  59th, with 38%.  Quebec was the most unionised jurisdiction, at 39.9%.  North Carolina was the least with 4.3%.

Some of the other areas of concern are also interesting to note.  Newfoundland and Labrador showed the most days of work lost per 1,000 employees due to industrial disputes. (390 days, 2004-2008) That was three time the number of days of the second spot, British Columbia, with 127 days. Quebec – in third place – had a loss work days of 75 days.

And here are a couple of measures for just the past year:

1. Average unemployment rate, July 2009- June 2010:  60th place with an average unemployment rate of 15.4%. 
2. Average total employment growth, July 2009-June 2010:   tied for second place with 0.2% average growth.

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Economics as ideology, or, The Other Dismal Science

So at some point people thought that economists actually might be good at forecasting things.

No wait.

This is serious.

Apparently, some people actually believed that.

But only now is some mathematician figuring out there might be some doubt as to the ability of your average economist to forecast much of anything with any accuracy.

According to David Orrell:

Current economic theory is less a science than an ideology peculiar to a certain period of history, which may well be nearing an end…

All jokes aside, the Globe piece by Brian Milner is worth the time, if for no other reason than there is an audio excerpt of Orrell reading from his book, Economyths: 10 ways economists get it wrong.


While Orrell uses ideology in another sense, it is interesting that two of the economists who get the most popular attention in Newfoundland and Labrador seem to be more ideological or partisan than analytical.  To wit:

• Federal job presence,  - updated links here - 2005 and 2006  
• Historical polemics,
• Industrial development then,
• Industrial development now,
• the recession, 
• Labrador development, and,
• Equalization.

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Traffic Drivers, Sept 13-17, 2010

1. A left wing Tea Bagger
2. Conditioned Response
3. Unsecured creditors accept AbitibiBowater restructuring plan
4. Hibernia 20
5. And the survey says…maybe not much, really
6. Court docket now online
7. The Great Sheaves Cove Chainsaw Massacre
8. “I can’t wait to see the day we don’t get a dollar.”
9. Bury my lede at Muskrat Falls
10. Prov gov appoints mediator in Vale strike

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Looking for a mid-year update at mid-year

September marks the middle of the provincial government’s financial year.

Makes sense, then, that the provincial government should issue a mid-year financial update update in September or maybe October. But these days, when the administration led by Danny Williams doesn’t like to spend any time in the House of Assembly, it’s not unusual to see the mid-year update delivered in December.

Strange then that the newspaper covering the electoral districts held by both the Premier and the finance minister is asking to see that mid-year update now, when it ought to be delivered, instead of December when the finance minister will deliver it.

The people of this province are used to red ink when it comes to provincial budgets of the past but balanced budgets have also become commonplace in recent years.

This province managed better than most jurisdictions during the worldwide recession but the time has come to clean up the books and get back to paying our bills when they are due.

Finance Minister Tom Marshall should get his figures in order and tell taxpayers where we stand at the halfway mark and where we can expect to end up when the year is done.

Maybe they suspect something is amiss in Marshall’s books.

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Prov Gov appoints mediator in Vale strike

The provincial government today announced the appointment of Bill Wells as a mediator in the ongoing labour dispute at Voisey’s Bay.

The best they’d been willing to do before is strongly encourage both sides to get back to the table.  The most recent example of that was in June, 2010.

So what happened recently for government to change its approach?

Money might be getting tighter as we come up on the half-way point in the fiscal year.

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Hibernia 20

To mark the 20th anniversary of the development for the Hibernia project, cbc.ca/nl put together a special page of video clips from the time. It’s a great site and a great reminder of one of the most significant events in the province’s long history.

There are so many aspects to the Hibernia story (and the CBC vids) worth noting:

• There’s the signing ceremony with all the Premiers since Confederation to that time in attendance.
• There’s the caution from Clyde Wells that offshore oil and gas would not solve all the province’s economic problems. That one pissed off a lot of people in the oil industry but he was right.
• There’s the warning from Wade Locke about the project would cost the province its precious Equalization hand-outs and as such would be a bad thing. Locke wasn’t alone in his pessimism and unfortunately the thirst for federal hand-outs proved to be a major policy initiative of the current administration.  Thankfully, Locke  and the others were and the provincial government is now off Equalization despite the best efforts of the current administration.  The Premiers who worked to bring the Hibernia project to the province got their wish instead.
• The forecast was for $4.0 billion in revenue based on oil prices at the time.  Change oil prices and the amount coming from Hibernia will be more like nine times that amount.
• By contrast, the equity stakes secured at great price by the current administration from Hebron, White Rose and Hibernia South will be only a tiny fraction of the royalties from that original project based on the royalty regime put in place in 1990 and revised in 2000. 
• Construction on the project began almost immediately.  Construction on Hebron, by contrast, is not expected to begin until four years after the partners signed the development deal.

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Unsecured creditors accept AbitibiBowater restructuring plan

News release issued by AbitibiBowater:

BWTQ (OTC)

MONTREAL, Sept. 14 /CNW Telbec/ - AbitibiBowater is pleased to announce that the Company has received approval for its plan of reorganization from unsecured creditors under the Companies' Creditors Arrangement Act (CCAA) in Canada. The plan of reorganization received overwhelming support from its unsecured creditors both in dollar amount of claims and in number of claim holders who voted on the plan. Having obtained the requisite votes in each class, except with respect to Bowater Canada Finance Corporation (BCFC), a special purpose company subsidiary with no operating assets, AbitibiBowater will seek a sanction order in respect of its CCAA plan other than in respect of BCFC, which is excluded from the CCAA plan. The Company does not believe that the exclusion of BCFC will affect the timing of the Company's sanction hearing by the Canadian Court nor does the Company expect it will materially delay AbitibiBowater's emergence from creditor protection slated for this fall.

Voting tabulations on the plan of reorganization under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code are expected on September 20, 2010. The Company will provide further information when the results become available.

"We appreciate the support given by the significant majority of our creditors under the CCAA process for our plan of reorganization," stated David J. Paterson, President and Chief Executive Officer. "We are confident our restructuring efforts have created a stronger foundation for a more sustainable and competitive company. We look forward to completing the restructuring process and emerging from creditor protection this fall."

Details of the voting results including votes on a class-by-class basis will be available at www.abitibibowater.com/restructuring.

The sanction hearing under the CCAA process is scheduled to occur on September 20, 2010 in the Quebec Superior Court and the confirmation hearing under the Chapter 11 process is scheduled to start on September 24, 2010 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware.

AbitibiBowater produces a wide range of newsprint, commercial printing and packaging papers, market pulp and wood products. It is the eighth largest publicly traded pulp and paper manufacturer in the world. AbitibiBowater owns or operates 19 pulp and paper facilities and 24 wood products facilities located in the United States, Canada and South Korea. Marketing its products in more than 70 countries, the Company is also among the world's largest recyclers of old newspapers and magazines, and has third-party certified 100% of its managed woodlands to sustainable forest management standards. AbitibiBowater's shares trade over-the-counter on the Pink Sheets and on the OTC Bulletin Board under the stock symbol ABWTQ.

For further information: Investors: Duane Owens, Vice President, Finance, 864 282-9488; Media and Others: Seth Kursman, Vice President, Public Affairs, Sustainability & Environment, 514 394-2398, seth.kursman@abitibibowater.com

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A left wing Tea Bagger

Pity the poor federal New Democrats.

Just as they turn themselves in knots over a private members bill on the gun registry, along comes defence critic Jack Harris sounding like a left wing Tea Bagger but without Sarah’s Palin’s intellectual depth or subtlety of mind.

Harris managed to get himself standing before the offshore helicopter safety inquiry. The former provincial New Democratic Party leader decided that his closing remarks were a good time to launch another unfounded assault on the integrity of the men and women of the Canadian Forces who provide search and rescue service.

"As long as that Canadian Forces Response [sic] time is as slow as it is — and inadequate in my view — then there may have to be more severe restrictions on the use of helicopters to transport offshore," said Harris, MP for St. John’s East and defence critic for the federal NDP.

That’s the quote from a story carried by cbcnl.ca. Harris recommended that offshore helicopter flights be limited to daylight hours during the weekdays since, as the Telegram put it:

The Department of National Defence’s (DND) search and rescue response times are 30 minutes on weekdays from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m., and two hours at all other times.

The only problem is that Harris knows the response is not slow, as he alleged, nor is it confined to certain hours during the day, as his comments suggest.  Harris knows the correct information that because of evidence presented at the inquiry.  The information is there.  Why he choses to ignore it remains a mystery.

The offshore helicopter inquiry, directed very ably by retired Supreme Court justice Robert Wells, has revealed a great many details of offshore helicopter safety and travel that many – likely including Harris  - did not know before. It is all information that should have led Harris to make other comments, ones that fit within the inquiry mandate.  That information was there as well.  Why he chose to ignore it and instead launch yet another attack against the men and women of the Canadian Forces remains a mystery.

But it is not the first time Harris has made comments contrary to the facts.  In an interview with CBC Radio, Harris called for an agency separate from the offshore regulatory board to set standards for offshore safety.  He made the comments while discussing safety standards set by Transport Canada, the agency separate from the offshore regulatory board that sets safety standards for the offshore.

On another occasion, Harris said that on the day of the Cougar incident, the Gander search and rescue squadron was “off station,” that is outside the province. They were not outside their operational area and, as evidence at the inquiry confirmed, the presence of all the region’s search and rescue aircraft in Sydney Nova Scotia for an exercise sped up some aspects of the response.

Harris has accused the Canadian Forces of failing to conduct a study of the Cougar incident out of fear of what might be revealed.  He had no basis for making the allegation  - yet another cheap shot - but yet he made it anyway.

Outside the bizarro world where Harris might be considered an expert in anything military, let alone search and rescue, it is hard to fathom why the New Democrat defence critic persists in sloganeering. Perhaps someone has told him that it plays well with the base.

Well, it is hard to imagine New Democrats being quite so stupid as Harris’ comments suppose. New Democrat voters are, in fact, considerably more intelligent than Harris’ remarks allow.  Nor are Harris’ comments consistent with what any Canadian would expect of a national party that is serious about wanting to form government.  But apparently, they do at least wish to pose as such a party.

Interestingly enough, though, when Harris had the chance to question Colonel Paul Drover at the Wells inquiry, he wasn’t quite as bold in his assertions.  Faced with someone who knew the facts, Harris would only cluck about the gold standard. In itself, that is revealing.

Harris’ anti-military comments reduce the New Democratic Party’s position to a caricature.  They diminish the men and women of the party.  What is worse, Jack Harris’ scurrilous comments attack the men and women who risk their lives to rescue others.

If Harris had the courage of his convictions, if he really is  - as some contend - some sort of an expert, he ought to do one simple thing:  go to Gander sometime soon and speak with the men and women of 103 Squadron and their families.  Not a private meeting, but one with media present.  Let Harris explain – in his expert opinion – how it is that 103 Squadron screwed up the Cougar response.  Let him point out why their response to search and rescue calls, generally,  is too slow and how they might do it better.

And then let Jack sit back and hear from the real experts. That would be something worth broadcasting in prime time.

Sadly, it will never happen.  But it won’t be because the men and women of the Canadian Forces are afraid of the results.

No.

It won’t happen for the same reason Jack says one thing to the media, but another thing when faced with a real expert.

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And the survey says… maybe not much, really

The Canadian Payroll Association is getting a chunk of media attention for a poll they just released.

The stories are running something like this one from CBC:

Almost 60 per cent of Canadians live paycheque to paycheque and say they'd be in financial difficulty if their paycheque were a week late.

A new survey from the Canadian Payroll Association released Monday showed some troubling signs about Canadians' personal finances.

To its credit, CPA released a detailed research report. That’s where you will find some useful information when it comes to the survey.

For one thing, there’s no indication of how CPA or its research partner selected or contacted the respondents.  The report does give some demographic data but how CPA found these 2766-odd people could affect results.  If CPA depended on respondents to contact CPA then that might tend to skew the results toward people who were motivated for some reason. Since CPA represents the people who look after payrolls across the country, the responses might be skewed if the respondents knew the person from payroll was asking questions about their job security and personal finances.

These sorts of details matter when it comes to the results.

If you don’t think so, notice that one of the questions was about confidence that the person preparing the regular paycheque got it right. Forty-eight percent were extremely confident, 38% were very confident and 10% were confident.  That’s 96% incidentally.

And if you think that might not be important, notice that in most provinces the total number of respondents was very small.  Just 16 people answered the survey in Newfoundland and Labrador. 

That might not matter in a national poll designed to sample the opinion of all Canadians on a few general questions.  But on a political poll, it could matter quite a bit.

Even on a regional or provincial basis, you can get plenty of skewed results based on who gets surveyed.  A recent opinion article in Campaigns and Elections predicted that 2012 will be the last presidential election in which pollsters rely on landline telephones for collecting data.  Already 25% of Americans use cellular phones as their primary means of making telephone calls. The demographic that goes with that – young, African-American or Hispanic – is also an important one for some races or aspects of the bigger picture.

The situation is much the same in Canada.  Researchers are having a harder and harder time getting people to spend the 15 or 20 minutes to do a telephone survey.  A sample of 400 respondents might mean trying to contact over 6,000 people. And while cellular telephone usage might not be as significant in Canada as in the Untied States, other issues can affect results.  Even in a province like Newfoundland and Labrador, language, comprehension (literacy) levels and social and cultural factors can all have an impact on results.

So when you look at a news story about another poll, don’t just take the results at face value.  Go looking for more information about how the poll was conducted.  Sometimes you might turn up some details that affect your perception of the poll and the news story based on it.

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A-ha! Update:  An excellent story in the Tuesday Telegram (not online) raises questions about this poll.  According to the article, the survey went to local payroll officers who sent it out to employees for response.

That accounts for the varied response rates (16 in NL, 193 in QC and 500 in ON) and, as the article acknowledges, likely would affected the ability to take attitudes about the economy and extrapolate them to regions.

Of course, it also explains why 86% think their payroll officer is doing a fine job, but that they just need to keep those cheques coming to avoid personal financial disaster.  Even if it wasn’t true, what else would you tell the person who makes sure you get paid?

Conditioned Response

Political dog-whistling is something your humble e-scribbler has talked about before.

Basically it is using words that means certain things to certain segments of the population, usually things that touch on deeply held beliefs and core values. To others, those same words have little or no meaning beyond the plain English. in politics it is a way of saying two things at once as a way of mobilising different segments of the population without alienating one, both or others.

What it plays on are responses to certain prompts that each of us learns over time.  In its crudest form, this conditioned response we are talking about is the old example of teaching a dog to connect the ringing of a bell with food.  When the bell rings, the dog drools for the bowl of yummies it thinks is coming even if there is no food around.

Conditioned responses in humans bypass the parts of the brain involving conscious thought and effort. You’ll find that in any activity where seconds count or a moment of hesitation can have deadly consequences – like firefighting or some branches of the military - training usually works to build up a set of nearly automatic responses.  The training – the conditioning  - can be extremely effective.  After an incident, the individuals involved may not even remember what happened.

In politics, the people often remember exactly what is going on, but the disconnection from thought  - from critical analysis – is absolutely real.

Consider for example, anything connected to Quebec and Labrador hydro-electric power.  The responses are so strongly conditioned in huge numbers of people that they respond instinctively to any suggestion that some vague entity called “Quebec” is doing something evil:  people are ready to man the barricades.

There are two fine examples of conditioned response in the weekend Telegram. Two hard-nosed, hard-headed editors – neither of them lacking in the brains department – wrote on the same subject:  the Premier’s dog-whistle speech to the Board of Trade this past week.

Here’s Bob Wakeham:

So when Danny Williams lets Quebec have it square in the noggin for putting up still more obstacles to the Lower Churchill development, or continuing with its entrenchment on that disgraceful Upper Churchill contract, the Newfoundland sector of my skull calls for applause, while the journalistic neurons demand I let everyone know that the premier’s stance will play well in every nook and cranny of the province, that he’s abundantly aware that the we-against-them form of politicking will provide another feather in his cap of popularity.

Here’s Russell Wangersky:

But let’s get right to the nub of the argument.

Is it fair that a province with natural resources to sell — say, hydroelectricity or fish — should be held to ransom by another province because the producing province wants to get its product to a lucrative market? Should one province get to skim profits from the other, just because it can?

If you read both columns you will certainly have a very rich plate of ideas to devour.  Both make powerful points and both are conscious of the fact that politicians like the Premier use political issues to garner support.

But what we are talking about here is something a hair’s breadth below the surface of what both Wakeham and Wangersky are writing about.  Both writers accept that “Quebec” is “putting up still more obstacles”, to use Wakeham’s version or that “a province with natural resources to sell” is being “held ransom by another province” to take Wangersky’s.

In other words, even though they are conscious of the fact it is just a bell, they still accept the bell’s tinkling is tied to food.  They accept that what the Premier said last week about Quebec’s obstructionism was absolutely correct because, as we all know, that’s what Quebec and Labrador hydroelectricity is all about.

The point is not to slag off either Wakeham or Wangersky.  Take their columns, on this point, as evidence of just how deeply rooted, just how powerful is the basic political mythology about Labrador and Quebec built up over the course of 35 years of relentless effort by one politician after another. Even with mounds of evidence that the Premier’s latest tirade against the “Quebec” bogeyman is based on fiction, the two editors just carried on from the starting point of what every assumes to be true. 

On another level though, you can see the early stages of something else and that’s where the current administration needs to watch out.  Russell Wangersky ends his column with the warning that the story is getting boring to voters.  And Wakeham, who evidently loves Danny, despite wanting to needle the Old Man about his marital problems every now and again, knows full well that Danny the Politician is just blowing the whistle in order to put “another feather in his cap of popularity.”

Those acknowledgements mean that the conditioning is starting to lose its grip. As long as the current administration keeps blowing the same whistle, it’s really only a matter of time before fewer and fewer dogs drool on the carpet in anticipation of the Scoobie snacks that never ever show up. 

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Traffic Drivers, Unlove Boat Edition

1. Cruise ends abruptly in St. John’s
2. Process Stories or real insiders don’t gab
3. Cruise ship sale and passengers “not even an issue”: St. John’s mayor
4. Freedom from Information:  thousands of bucks for Premier’s speeches, redacted
5. Transparency and Accountability:  Speeches
6. Time to retire the old schtick
7. Court docket now online
8. Bury my lede at Muskrat Falls
9. Fiscal Discipline
10. Who speaks for cabinet?

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RBC lowers NL GDP forecast for 2010

Highlights of the latest RBC Economics forecast for Newfoundland and Labrador in 2010:

• Real GDP to grow at 3.3% for the year, down from the 4.1% forecast in June.
• Offshore oil production down 3.2% year-to-date to June.
• Non-residential capital construction to form basis of growth in medium term.
• Oil royalties expected to reach 40% of provincial government revenues in 2010, potentially supporting increase in public sector employment.  RBC states that public sector represents 30% of employment in the province.
• Real GDP growth of 3.3% forecast for 2011, up from previous forecast of 2.3%

And for the national comparison:

• Saskatchewan will lead the country in real GDP growth with 2010 and 2011. 
• NL is middle of the pack for 2010 and third in 2011 for GDP growth.
• NL has recovered less than 60% of the jobs lost since the recession.  Quebec has recovered 140% and Nova Scotia has recovered about 100%.

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Mayor dismisses impact on passengers; world cruise pax owed more than quarter million

While obviously out-of-touch St. John’s mayor Dennis “Doc” O’Keefe can blithely dismiss the impact of a recent cruise cancellation on the passengers affected, the passengers themselves tell a different story.

Here’s how local radio station VOCM reported O’Keefe’s comments in a story headlined “Cruise ship passengers never stranded”:

The Mayor of St. John's says the people reportedly left "stranded" in the capital city after the Cruise Boat they were traveling on was sold were taken care of by the cruise company. Dennis O'Keefe says given the situation, it all went pretty smoothly. O'Keefe says most passengers on board the ship were due to disembark and fly home. He says three or four passengers were supposed to continue on a world cruise. O'Keefe says these people were either given hotel rooms or sent home by the cruise company.

Evidently, Doc never heard of the Myers, the elderly couple from New Mexico who were already in Doc’s fair city when they found out they would have to pony up for unexpected hotel rooms and airfares to back home. Their efforts to contact the company were apparently fruitless in the first few days after the cruise line shut down.

Then there are the other passengers, scheduled on the circumnavigation.  As the Seattle Times reported:

Tammy Hinshaw, of Michigan, was aboard the ship on a series of cruises around the world. After a three-week break, she and her partner were scheduled for many more weeks of cruising beginning Oct. 3 — for which they paid Cruise West 10 days ago.

"Two other passengers were scheduled to be on board until Feb. 3, and one passenger was scheduled to arrive Oct. 3 and remain on board until Feb. 3," Hinshaw said. "To give you an idea of how much money is at stake, Cruise West owes these five passengers (including myself and my partner) well over a quarter of a million dollars."

Henshaw and her partner are out $50,000 and they’ve received no answers to their e-mails to the company. They paid by cheque based on Cruise West’s guarantee of a two percent discount for people who paid in cash.  As the Times reported:

"In retrospect it was an incredibly dumb thing to do ... but many of the other passengers who are owed substantial amounts of money also paid by check, for the same reason," Hinshaw said. She and her partner did not purchase travel insurance because of its high price, and they didn't know of Cruise West's financial woes.

The Times also reported the cruise company laid off 65 employees this past week.

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Fiscal Discipline

If you want to get a sense of where Newfoundland and Labrador fits on the spending landscape across Canada, take a gander at a comparison of program spending by each provincial government and the federal government on a per capita basis, in 2005 and in 2010.

This basically shows what each government spends – on average for each person  – to deliver government programs and services.

Newfoundland and Labrador was the highest spending province per person in 2005, but it was not out in front by nearly the same margin as it is in 2010. Newfoundland and Labrador went from spending $8,572 per person in 2005 to spending $13,300 in 2010.

No other province spends as much. 

Alberta spends about $3,000 per person less.

Newfoundland and Labrador spends $5,377 per person more than Quebec and yet, according to Premier Danny Williams, “Quebec pours its money into huge tax subsidies for its companies, the best childcare programs in the country and massive electricity subsidies for its people valued at 7 billion dollars.”

Apparently, they are that much better at spending money that they can deliver all that on only $200 more per person than Danny Williams spent in his second year in office.  In fact, they are so good – according to Danny Williams - they actually get all those bennies spending less money per person than Danny Williams has in any year he has been Premier so far. 

That is, of course, with the exception of that one year where they bested him by a mere 200 bucks a head.

Makes you wonder where exactly is Newfoundland and Labrador’s provincial childcare program then?

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NALCOR issues update on Parsons Pond

News release as issued:

Nalcor Energy – Oil and Gas update on Parsons Pond drilling program

September 9, 2010, St. John’s, NL - Nalcor Energy – Oil and Gas (Nalcor) announced today it spud the second well of its Parsons Pond Drilling Program, Nalcor et al Finnegan.

This is the second well of a three-well onshore exploration drilling program. The program is providing valuable information which will enable Nalcor and its partners to further assess the petroleum potential in this area. “We expect this program will incent further exploration and advance the development of the basin,” said Jim Keating, VP [vice-president] Oil and Gas, Nalcor Energy.

The first well of the program, Nalcor et al Seamus, spud on February 16, 2010, reached the planned total drilling depth of 3,160 metres in May 2010 and is scheduled for further testing this fall.

Nalcor Energy has an average of 67 per cent gross working interest in three onshore exploration permits on the island’s west coast.  In addition to Nalcor Energy Oil and Gas Inc., there are four other  partners with varying holdings in the three permits: Leprechaun Resources Ltd.; Deer Lake Oil and Gas Inc.; Investcan Energy Corporation; and Vulcan Minerals Inc. 

Nalcor Energy – Oil and Gas is also a working interest partner in the White Rose Growth Project, Hibernia Southern Extension and Hebron offshore projects.

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Media Contact:  Dawn Dalley, Manager, Corporate Communications  t.709.737.1315   c.709.727.7715  e. ddalley@nalcorenergy.com

Cruise ship sale and passengers “not even an issue”: St. John’s mayor

According to King 5 News, Milo Myers and his wife are out at least US$12,000 for a planned cruise on the Spirit of Oceanus from St. Pierre to Halifax that won’t happen.    Seattle-based Cruise West is currently restructuring.  The company sold Spirit of Oceanus and the cruise ended abruptly in St. John’s on September 8.

The couple flew to St. John’s in advance of boarding, spent a couple of days in the capital city and planned a short flight to St. Pierre to meet the ship there.  Instead, the Myers, who both live in New New Mexico, will also be out the cost of new airline flights home and a hotel stop in Seattle.

According to the news report, the company hasn’t returned Myers’ calls.

While news media like USAToday  can’t get any information on Cruise West, St. John’s mayor Dennis “Doc” O’Keefe seems to have turned into a spokesperson for the cruise line.  O’Keefe even seems to be dismissing any concerns about the fate of passengers affected by the cancellation.

He spoke to the St. John’s daily newspaper The Telegram:  

St. John’s Mayor Dennis O’Keefe said there were 70 people aboard the Spirit of Oceanus when it docked, and only four or five of those were involved in the full world cruise. He said they were the only ones having their trip cut short.

For the rest, St. John’s was the end of their original itinerary, O’Keefe said.

He said the cruise line was looking after those passengers.

The ship was originally scheduled to proceed to St-Pierre and pick up another 70-100 people, but that port of call is off now.

Those passengers were to travel to St-Pierre from elsewhere to board the ship, but were notified well in advance of the cancellation, O’Keefe said.

“It’s not even an issue,” he said.

That’s much more than the company itself is saying. 

A statement issued on September 8 said only that the company ended the trip at a scheduled port of debarkation. The company recommended that passengers affected by the cancellation of cruises should contact their insurance company, their credit card company or send an e-mail to the companies general information e-mail address.

The Spirit of Oceanus is registered in Nassau.

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