Drop-out drop detail

The 2008 report on schools from the provincial education department is a wealth of useful information on one of the most important government service areas.

Chapter 10 is about school leavers.  In light of the Statistics Canada report on drop-outs, it’s worth taking a closer look at the way the drop-out rate dropped in this province.

As we know from the Statistics Canada report, 19.9% of young people dropped out of school in Newfoundland and Labrador, on average, in the three years 1991-1993.  By 1996, that figure had declined to 16.7%.

By 2006, that number was down to 8.9%. The rate was lower in 2003, continued downward for the next two years and then jumped up in 2006. The current rate  - 7.4%  - is actually about what the rate was in 2005. The table is taken from the provincial government report.

Media reports indicate that a higher percentage of males than females dropped out in this province in 2009 (103% versus 6.6%). That’s a change from a decade and more ago when the male rate was dramatically higher.  According to CBC, “while rates have declined for both sexes, the rate of decrease was faster for men, narrowing the gap between the two.”

The provincial education department has another statistic, though.  It compares rural versus urban rates of school-leaving.  Here’s the provincial government table comparing the rates for all provinces and for the country as a whole.

This sort of statistic doesn’t bode well for economic development in rural Newfoundland and Labrador. And it doesn’t get any better when one considers the trend in the Eastern district, for example, that shows those graduating high school in rural areas are more likely than urban students to leave with a general pass.  n other words, they aren’t necessarily more likely to enter post-secondary education or training.

If a provincial government could only focus on one area in order to produce economic and social benefits to individuals and to the community as a whole, improving educational performance would be it.

Now it is interesting to pick up on comments on the other post on this report.  Both noted the possible influence of the cod moratorium in 1992 on the decline.  On the face of it, the answer seems to be that the moratorium did influence the rate.  Young people in rural areas, especially males, tended to leave school since they could make a living in the fishery or other similar work with a limited education.  Without the cod fishery they might have stayed in school.

Maybe.

The idea is worth exploring but the answer is likely to be more complex. Don’t forget that about 70,000 left Newfoundland and Labrador in the aftermath of the moratorium.  While the drop-out rate declined dramatically in the period between 1993 and 2005, the persistence of a high drop-out rate in rural Newfoundland  suggests there might be other factors at work.

Still, these numbers bear further consideration.

Especially considering the literacy and numeracy rates in the province.

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Williams’ shift sends Lower Churchill back to enviro drawing board for second time this year

As labradore has it, the panel conducting the environmental reviewing the Lower Churchill project is asking NALCOR  - the provincial government’s energy company - to submit a raft of new documentation now that the Premier has decided to completely revise the project.

Not surprising.

Not surprising at all.

Nor would it be surprising to find that both the panel and the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency are privately spitting nickels in frustration at the twists and turns they’ve gone through to deal with this project.

Last January, the panel explained to NALCOR that the company’s submissions up to that point didn’t justify the project, as presented.  You got it.  NALCOR could not justify the project.  They also couldn’t demonstrate things like the claimed greenhouse gas emission reductions.  That’s because they don’t have any customers to show how the hydro juice will actually displace fossil fuels used in electricity generation anywhere on the planet.

NALCOR spent eight months  - until August 2010 - revising and revamping stuff, sending it along to the panel and then out to the interested parties for detailed review.

The Innu picked up on the fact that NALCOR and the provincial government were now substantially revising the project – the smaller dam and a whole new transmission routing – and said exactly that in their response filed with the environmental review panel. 

Based on the Premier’s comments at the end of October, the panel had to get the whole thing sorted in order to comply with the panel’s terms of reference.  Specifically, they are asking NALCOR to document:

a.  Changes to the project description, construction (including schedule) and operation;
b.  Transmission interconnection lines;
c.  Changes to accommodation facilities;
d.  New cost estimates;
e.  New socio-economic data and timing, particularly employment, work scheduling approach, labour requirements, goods and services;
f.  Changes to reservoir clearing and impoundment and validity of model results (mercury, flow, ice modeling, etc.);
g.  Harmful alteration, disruption and destruction of fish habitat and implications for the proposed Fish Habitat Compensation Plan;
h.  Potential aquatic and terrestrial impacts;
i.  Traditional land use and Aboriginal issues;
j.  Any other relevant information.

This is going to take another year or two, at least and the whole review is going to get way more interesting. 

The project the panel has right now consists entirely of two dams and a connection back to Churchill Falls so the power can head out through Quebec.  The line to Soldier’s Pond, near St. John’s is entirely within the province so that isn’t part of the federal review. But that’s it.  All that NALCOR is pushing is the same project Brian Tobin pushed in 1998.

Until now, the line to Nova Scotia simply didn’t exist except as a political throw-away line.  Events of the past two months have changed all that.  If NALCOR really intends to ship power to Nova Scotia – as discussed just within the past week -  they will now have to lay that on the table, in detail.  There will also be new interested parties looking for a say in what happens in the line from Newfoundland to Nova Scotia and then maybe in whatever connections will happen in New Brunswick. An already complex project just got a whole lot more complex.

Don’t forget that this project was supposed to be under construction right at this moment.  NALCOR was supposed to sanction it in 2009. 

This latest bad news comes on top of other setbacks and a reminder of the biggest inconvenient truth about the legendary project. Substantial chunks of the Innu community aren’t happy with the project. And if that weren’t enough, an analyst at the Atlantic Provinces Economic Council thinks the province needs to get its fiscal house in order before thinking of adding at least $6.0 billion to the public debt load.

But perhaps the biggest setback of all for Danny Williams’ plan was one entirely of his own making.  After rejecting a proposal to develop the deal with Hydro-Quebec and Ontario Hydro, Williams then spent five years  - entirely in secret - trying to get HQ to take an equity stake in the project. He even offered to set aside his political commitment that he would only sign a Lower Churchill deal if HQ provided redress for the 1969 contract.  HQ just wasn’t interested:  they’d already moved on to other big projects.

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It gets better

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Sign of the future?

The opposition leader makes a splash with a simple call for earlier breast cancer screening for women.

The cabinet minister issues a long-winded news release reciting all the stuff his department is doing about breast cancer.

And it predictably finishes with a recitation of how much money the current administration has spent.

Which one was more effective?

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The importance of staying competitive

The Government of Ontario is creating 75 scholarships aimed at attracting top graduate students to Ontario universities.

Meanwhile, in another province, the university not only faces declining enrolment but also a freeze on funding for graduate students thanks  - apparently - to some management cock-ups rather clumsily spun as a good thing.

On the upside, the provincial government’s research and development corporation announced on Wednesday it would provide funding over three years to support work by eight doctoral, 12 masters and two bachelors students at Memorial University.

“World-class research is at the heart of Memorial University and I’m delighted that 22 of our students have received RDC’s Ocean Industries Student Research Awards,” said Dr. Christopher Loomis, Vice-President (Research), Memorial University. “Graduate students are an essential part of Memorial’s research success. The competitive funding provided by this scholarship program will enable them to conduct research that is important to Memorial University and critical to the future prosperity of the province.”

 

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Smart politics versus not-smart politics

In his battle against Reform-based Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper over Equalization, Reform-based Conservative Party leader Danny Williams didn’t have any political friends left.

Not surprisingly, Williams failed.

Ditto, the family Feud, known to some as the ABC campaign.

Senior political reporter and columnist Chantal Hebert made the point rather bluntly in her column in the Wednesday Toronto Star:

At the federal-provincial table, Williams is ultimately a loner.

You can see that very point as far back as October 2004. Remember the famous storm-out?  Well, let’s just say it had less to do with negotiations and more to do with a potential dressing down from other Premiers who had finally cottoned on to the federal transfer deal Williams was trying to finagle.

By contrast, though, Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall just got Stephan Harper’s Conservatives to turn down a hostile take-over bid by BHP of Potash Corporation.

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Drop-out rate continues 20 year decline

The drop-out rate for Newfoundland young people reached 7.4% between 2007 and 2010, according to Statistics Canada, down from an average of 19.9% in the period between 1991 and 1993.

The rate fell most dramatically in the period between 1993 and 2005 when the rate fell from 19.9% to between 8% and 10%.

That’s also the period when Newfoundland and Labrador eliminated denominationally-based education. Prior to educational reform under the Liberal administrations of Clyde Wells and later Brian Tobin, control of education as divided among seven Christian denominations.

The provincial government eliminated denominational education in 1997 following two referenda.  In the second vote, an overwhelming majority of those holding educational rights voted to abolish the system.

Education has a smaller share of the current provincial budget than it was in 1995.

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“Get fiscal house in order” first: analyst

An analyst with the Atlantic Provinces Economic Council told a conference in St. John’s that the provincial government  “has to get its fiscal house in order” before it makes an investment in any version of the Lower Churchill energy megaproject.

Fred Bergman said the province’s net debt to gross domestic product ratio remains among the highest in Canada at 41%.

Bergman is quoted by the Telegram [page four story, Wednesday November 3, not on line] as saying:

“Get your fiscal house in order, get your debt-to-GDP ratio down, get your budget balanced and then you can afford to tackle something like that.”

The Williams administration ran a half billion cash deficit in 2009 and budgeted for a $900 million cash shortfall in 2010.  Budget projections released in spring 2010 do not include any forecast for balanced budgets.

Finance minister Tom Marshall has previously consistently rejected balanced budget legislation.

In its various configurations, the Lower Churchill project could cost anywhere from $6.0 billion to $14 billion.

The following charts show the provincial government’s liabilities and net debt.  The vertical axis is in millions of Canadian dollars.

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Related:  “The Fragile Economy: staying the course”

NL offshore drilling ban decision rests with prov gov #oilspill #cdnpoli

The federal government couldn’t impose a ban on offshore drilling in the Newfoundland and Labrador offshore area unless the provincial government agreed, according to briefing notes for the federal natural resources minister obtained by PostMedia.

Under the 1985 Atlantic Accord, such a decision would require the agreement of the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador. A federal-provincial agreement with Nova Scotia contains similar provisions.  In the absence of such an agreement, the Government of Canada has reportedly entered into informal talks with other coastal provinces where offshore drilling could take place.

Newfoundland and Labrador is also different from other provinces in that its provincial jurisdiction does not end at the low water mark.  Under the 1949 Terms of Union, the provincial government governs the same territory as it did prior to Confederation. Court decisions have upheld the view that this extends to three miles offshore, the territorial sea limit recognised internationally in 1949. As a result, the provincial government in newfoundland and Labrador has exclusive jurisdiction on offshore drilling within three miles of the shoreline.

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Related:  Drill, baby!  Drill! – Dunderdale rebuffs concerns about border, offshore oil spills

Keith Coombs: financial genius

Ah, friends, it seems like only yesterday that Keith Coombs wanted to be deputy mayor of St. John’s.

And what, pray tell, was one of his most outrageous claims?

In his campaign ads, Coombs says the city is expected to have an annual surplus of $11 million for each of the next four years, for a total surplus of $44 million, and that he wants the money to go back to the taxpayers.

Voters must have had a premonition that Keith was full of crap.

Turns out that $11 million surplus next year will be a five million dollar shortfall. 

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Being too negative

cbc.ca/nl takes a look at negativity and local politics in a report by provincial affairs reporter David Cochrane and a commentary by Randy Simms.

They are both worth checking out if for no other reason than they raise issues that are worth considering and worth debating.

A couple of quibbles:

First, negativity of this type isn’t something new.  In the current local version, this penchant for attacks goes back about a decade.

Second, Randy Simms is in the right neighbourhood when he mentions the recent mid-terms in the United States.  Politics in this province for the past decade or so demonstrate the very effective use of American political techniques  - including an ideological element - on a local level.  The lines used are similar to ones employed elsewhere in Canada, provincially and federally, and in the United States. While they use paid advertising in other places, here the slagging is done using other vehicles. 

When you are done with the video stuff, pop over to the Telegram and check the Wednesday editorial.  It points out the hefty price the Williams administration paid for a recent decision about a Facebook comment:

Why? Well, ask yourself what the circulation numbers are for one person’s Facebook page. Maybe hundreds; sometimes, thousands. In Pardy Ghent’s case, 1,109. 

Then, ask yourself this question: what’s the combined circulation of the Canadian Press, Yahoo News, MSN.ca, Troy Media, and the Reuters news service, just to name a few?
All of those sites carried the story of Pardy Ghent’s firing, under the not-so-pleasant headline “Facebook flap over Danny Williams’ penis.” 

It made newspapers and websites across Canada and the United States.

It even made the website of the India Times, half a world away. 

Yep — Skinner took a small fire, and unsuccessfully tried to put it out by pouring on the largest amount of gasoline he could find. 

Ignoring the status line would have made the whole thing a 15-second wonder that reflected far more poorly on Pardy Ghent than on anyone else. 

Instead of a handful of people shaking their heads, there are now thousands. Well done.

Two additional points:

First, the Telegram’s account of costs don’t really go far enough.  The CBC news stories and all the comments on this issue that are circulating under these and related media stories point out the extent to which negativity is now an issue that can cut the ruling Conservatives at least as sharply as it cuts anyone else.

Going negative this early definitely has its costs.

Second, Shawn Skinner didn’t do this on his own. Well, odds are he didn’t.  Like Kevin O’Brien, he was likely following orders.

Take out of all that what you will.

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*edits for caps, spelling and sentence structure

Stop bullying

Rick Mercer (via CBC NL)

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The October Traffic - Horrorshow

14,113 visitors up from 12,500 the month before.

20,039 page views.

Despite the drop in air temperature, October was a hot month at Bond Papers.

You might be surprised at what all those people were reading.  Here are the Top 10 posts for the month,based on the number of visitors:

1. Court docket now online
2. Williams announces political exit plan
3. Campaign Sign, Two
4. Municipal affairs minister passes away after lengthy illness
5. Campaign signs:  Outrage
6. Best Political Blog in Canada! Right Here!
7. The weight of office
8. When the rubber meets the paper mill
9. Jane Taber – Twit
10. Air Canada, the Maple Leafs and Sucking

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Anger Management: Conservative version

Former premier Roger Grimes makes some solid observations in the Tuesday Telegram about the idea of building Muskrat Falls on its own, as the latest iteration of the Lower Churchill goes.

“It makes ... absolutely no sense to finance the smaller part of the project that, of and by itself, can’t make any money,” he said.

What’s way more interesting in the current context, though, can be found in the comments section. 

Just note the number of comments, likely all Conservative partisans, attacking Grimes personally for having the temerity to offer an opinion. Notice how many of them appeared before 8:00 AM.  That is some serious anger-management issues going on there, people.

As you read the comments – if you can stomach them – remember that this is polling month.  As usual, people in the province are being treated both to an orchestrated series of happy-news announcements.  But what makes this month stand out is the connection to the assaults by the Fan Club. 

The Fanboys.

The Greek Chorus.

The Pitcher Plants.

The last time this crew deployed in such an organised and indignant manner was when some people dared to notice that the Premier had heart surgery. Their anger is aimed, not surprisingly at Liberals and if reporters step into the line of fire the media will be added to the list.

Anger  - and we are talking some major-league bile here - aimed at liberals and the news media.

Sounds just a wee bit familiar.

Dontcha think?

It gives a whole new meaning to the term anger management.  The real question, though, is will the strategy that worked before continue to work just as well the next time.

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Lower Churchill: more potato, potato

Sometimes really interesting things crop up in two stories about the Lower Churchill. 

Take for example, the likelihood of a deal with Emera to run a power line to Nova Scotia.  There’s a Canadian Press story dated November 1 that says this:

The head of Nalcor Energy won't say whether the Newfoundland and Labrador Crown agency is close to inking a deal with Emera Inc. (TSX:EMA) on the proposed Lower Churchill hydroelectric project.

Then there’s a CBC story dated November 1 that says something else:

Hydroelectric power from a proposed project in Labrador could reach the Maritimes within five to six years, Ed Martin, president of Newfoundland's Nalcor Energy, said Monday.

That five years obviously wouldn’t start today because as of 2010, the project is still bogged down in an environmental assessment.  Still, Ed didn’t give a probably projection on that.  It could – entirely fantastically  - be pumping juice in five years;  odds are though that the project would not be pushing electricity a decade from now. 

Premier Danny Williams recently told a gathering of the province’s Reform-based Conservative Party that a deal to develop one dam was possibly very close.  Ed Martin, the head of the province’s energy corporation told reporters in Halifax this week that  - from the CBC story – "[t]ime will not drive us. It has to be right."

Hmmm.

Potato.  Potato.

Tomato. Tomato.

Maybe the whole thing’s off. 

Maybe the whole thing’s on.

Maybe the whole thing is half on, and half off, go-it-alone and with partners simultaneously.

Surely you’ve noticed that since 2005 this project has gone from doing it alone to doing it with partners to doing only a bit of it with partners and still nothing has happened after five years of endless public posturing.

Oh yes, and five years of secret talks, in addition to the public talking about it.

And the price, meanwhile is still $6.5 billion for the smaller dam and a bunch of expensive transmission lines.  That was the original price for two dams and a line to Quebec. The whole thing could actually cost as much as $14 billion.

But that’s not the end of the flippin’ and da floppin’.

Danny Williams told his Conservative followers that the line to Nova Scotia would be a sweet way to reject Quebec after all their slights, real and imagined, over the years.  According to CBC, Martin said that shipping all that power means NALCOR needs a line to Nova Scotia in addition to a line that runs through Quebec.

"If we are going to move the kind of volumes we're talking about over the 50 years, we've come to the conclusion we need both routes."

And in leading up to that comment, Martin restated one of the ideas your humble e-scribbler floated, just so he could refute it:

"With respect to that question of is it something that we're using it from a leverage perspective, the answer is no,"

Still, though, if Ed Martin actually had a deal or was really close to one, he’d be announcing it rather than talking about all sorts of scenarios and possibilities.

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Federal briefing note cautions against #oilspill speculation

A briefing note prepared for federal natural resources minister Christian Paradis describes the potential impact an oilspill offshore Newfoundland and Labrador from one of the existing fields.

The note describes projections about impacts of an oilspill as risky since they are speculative. Nonetheless, the briefing note – obtained by Canadian Press under federal access to information laws – does give some idea of what might happen in a “non-trivial” spill:

The note says a “non-trivial” spill could leave oil in the water for weeks or months and much of it likely wouldn't be recovered. But little-to-no oil would likely wash up on Newfoundland's shores, and most of it would drift eastward and disperse in the Atlantic Ocean.

Sea birds might not be so lucky. The document says “it is likely that oil from a large blowout offshore eastern N.L. would cause substantial and significant seabird mortality, due to these species' extreme vulnerability to surface oiling.”

Fish might survive, but the fishery would likely be affected:

“This could have an economic effect upon the fishery enterprises involved. ... There is also the possibility that market perceptions could be affected for fishery products caught over a wider area than that actually affected by oil.”

Okay.  So this is speculation and, as the briefing note suggests, the minister should avoid speculation.  That’s actually good advice and someone should have fed the minister some better talking points.

Someone should have fed better lines to Premier Danny Williams and Kathy Dunderdale, too.  Both not only speculated on potential scenarios, they downplayed the potential impact of a spill.

And of course, neither the federal nor provincial Conservative politicians mentioned the possible impact of a “non-trivial” spill in some places offshore but not quite so far out to sea.

Like say in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.

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Thin-skinned or what?

It’s the “or what” you need to think about.

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Rumours of his demise…

Ted Sorensen, Kennedy advisor, White House speechwriter, lawyer, author and Democratic activist is dead at the age of 82.

Rumours of his demise, as noted in a post at Regret the Error, circulated previously.  This time they proved true.

The New York Times obituary described Sorensen’s role for President John Kennedy this way:

He held the title of special counsel, but Washington reporters of the era labeled him the president’s “intellectual alter ago” and “a lobe of Kennedy’s mind.” Mr. Sorensen called these exaggerations, but they were rooted in some truth.

Kennedy had plenty of yes-men. He needed a no-man from time to time. The president trusted Mr. Sorensen to play that role in crises foreign and domestic, and he played it well, in the judgment of Robert F. Kennedy, his brother’s attorney general. “If it was difficult,” Robert Kennedy said, “Ted Sorensen was brought in.”

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Lower Churchill: Tshakuesh leads quiet resistance to the Old Man’s Dream

Elizabeth Penashue is opposed to development of the Lower Churchill. 

She is concerned about what it will do to the environment and what the changes to the river will mean to the environment and to the Innu people who have lived in the area for centuries.

As she put it last year in a letter to The Labradorian:

A lot of people understand why we walk. We don't want the dam like they did before to Churchill Falls many years ago. We lost so many things back then, we lost hunting areas, and so did the white people, not only the Innu lost, other people lost too. They lost the same. The biggest thing we lost, were the burial grounds. This was the most important thing that we lost. If they make another dam what else will we loose? The river will die, and all the stuff around the river, trees, and the animals and fish. And the peoples hunting areas will be ruined.

We walk, women and children together to send a strong message that we will not give up. We are strong and we want to be respected and listened to. It is for the future of our children that we are doing this for!

While some people east of the over pass might have been pre-occupied with other things last week, listeners to Labrador Morning caught an interview with Elizabeth Penashue with host Cindy Wall (CBC audio file: October 28).

Penashue is a respected elder in the Innu community. Each fall for the past 13 years, she has walked the 80 kilometres from Happy Valley-Goose Bay to Gull Island to raise awareness about the impact Lower Churchill development will have on her people.

In the interview, Penashue talks about some of the people who have walked with her, including busloads of school children brought out each day.  She also talks about the food she enjoys and about the tent prepared for her by family members and other sin the community when she arrived at Gull Island.

More than many southerners may realise, Penashue represents a powerful political voice within the Innu community that cannot be ignored. Claims made a couple of years ago about an agreement on land claims and development, for example, proved to be so much hot air.  Penashue’s principled opposition carries great weight in itself and serves as the focal point for others who share her concerns.

Elizabeth Penashue is one of the reasons why any claims that a Lower Churchill deal is imminent or that the project may start soon are just so much hot air. The so-called New Dawn agreement vanished not long after the provincial government made a great noise about it. 

What blew the deal away, was not a mountain of hot air bigger than the blast that brought it.   It was the soft voice of a woman who walks 80 kilometres every fall and who will keep walking 80 kilometres until she can do it no more.

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Elizabeth Penashue’s Blog:  elizabethpenashue.blogspot.com

Before I’m gone I want to see some change, I want to help my people and teach the children. I don’t want to see my children lose everything—I know we can’t go back to how things were, but I don’t want them to lose their Innu identity, culture and life.

Moms say the darnedest things

The big front page story on the Telegram this Hallowe’en weekend is a story about the chow served to the guests at the Lakeside Hilton, the century old and then some prison that is the centrepiece of the provincial government’s correctional system.

Her Majesty’s Penitentiary.

The piece is called “Dining in at HMP”. The front end of it is a summary of a piece in the Toronto Star that compared local prison fare with that of the jails operated in the Greater Toronto Area.  The rest of it is a summary of the menus served at the Pen  garnished with quotes as fluffy as the mashed spuds that sit on the inmates’ plates next to the roast beef au jus or fresh Atlantic salmon.

The story is not front page fare by any means and it is only marginally less front page-y than the piece underneath.  That one comprises reminiscences by former managing editor Bill Callahan of the time he was a provincial cabinet minister back in the days when the last personality cult seized the good people of the province in its steely grip.  Incidentally that was long before anyone taped keys on walls at newsrooms, but that is to digress. Perhaps it is time for the powers that be over at the Telly to start re0running old Ray Guy columns from around the same time.  If the Mother Corp can recycle Chez Helene or Quentin Jurgens MP surely there is value in 45 year-old humour that is still relevant and savagely funny today.

Anyway, your humble e-scribbler’s mother inadvertently captured the gravitas of the Telegram’s front page Saturday evening with a dinner table comment she meant in all earnestness.

I saw that headline, she said, pointing to the paper over on a table in the living room.  “Dining in at HMP”, she read.  I thought that was going to be another Karl Wells food review.

At that, the family took a break from dinner to clean the shepherd’s pie off the walls.

Spit-takes can be messy.

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