An eagle-eyed reader pointed out a huge problem with the 11:00 AM post on CRA polls that will require a re-write.
SRBP apologies for the error. We'll repost later, with an explanation appended.
06 December 2012
Paying Attention to Details #nlpoli
Gabriella Sabau is an economics professor at Memorial University's Grenfell campus out in Corner Brook.
Sabau thinks Muskrat Falls is wonderful idea for three reasons.
For one thing, it’s green. For another thing, the electricity rates for consumers are supposedly low.
And for a third thing, "there will eventually be affordable power that will help attract business and investment."
Sabau noted the overall cost, though:
“The initial cost of the infrastructure is really high and those initial costs need to be paid up front,” she said.
Hmmm.
Paid up front.
And "eventually" the power will be affordable for consumers.
As it seems, Professor Sabau doesn't know much about Muskrat Falls. If she did, the economics professor would know that the project costs won't be paid up front. In fact, the project financing is deliberately set up to push the costs off to the distant future.
And it is consumers in the province who will be passing those costs later rather than sooner. “Eventually” will be a long time for consumers.
On the affordability thing, Sabau will evidently be quite happy. Business will find the power eminently affordable up front. Because consumers are paying all the costs plus profit, business and export customers get a gigantic deal right at the beginning.
"Eventually" comes quickly for them. In fact you could say that businesses and export customers will get the huge benefit immediately.
And those consumers for whom “eventually” really means eventually? Well, they won’t likely see profit from their considerable investment during the current century.
"Eventually" for the people paying the bills really will be "eventually" as in some undefined point in the far distant, almost incomprehensibly far away future.
You really have to love economists who pay attention before they offer opinions.
-srbp-
05 December 2012
Your Future is in Their Hands: impacted poller #nlpoli
David Brazil, member for Conception Bay East-Bell Island, on how he and his political colleagues approach the task of governing:
Mr. Speaker, we do not govern by polls. We want to know what the people really think.
Someone forgot to tell Brazil that public opinion polls do exactly that: they tell you what people really think.
Maybe Brazil just doesn’t like what the polls have been saying lately.
-srbp-
So much for Danny’s Bootie Bonus #nlpoli
During the 2007 general election, the provincial Conservatives announced a policy under which they would pay $1000 to any woman in the province who gave birth to a live baby or or adopted one.
SRBP called it the bootie call. Danny Williams tried to claim the idea was similar to an idea Hilary Clinton announced in the United States while she was trying to get the Democratic Party presidential nomination. It wasn’t and SRBP explained the difference between the two and why the Bootie Call was unlikely to work. It wouldn’t work because it hadn’t really worked in any of the other xenophobic places where they’d tried it.
Williams famously told reporters at the announcement in Corner Brook that “we can’t be a dying race.”
You don’t hear much about the Bootie Call from the Conservatives these days, but a look at the birth statistics will tell you what happened after the the provincial government started handing out the breeding bucks in 2008.
04 December 2012
The Prisoners of Their Own Delusions #nlpoli
Another part of the Premier’s Office assault on reality Monday was a puff piece by Paul McLeod in the Chronicle Herald on Kathy Dunderdale. In some respects, the timing is a coincidence but the thing has been in the works since last month, at least.
“She won’t make Joey’s mistake” was the title, with a subhead that Kathy Dunderdale “is leading the charge” of a Newfoundland and Labrador that is now in a power position in the country.
The focus, as you can gather from the title is a presentation of recent history in Newfoundland and Labrador centred on the 1969 Churchill Falls power contract.
History holds powerful political totems in Newfoundland and Labrador and none is more potent than the contract between Churchill Falls (Labrador) Corporation and Hydro-Quebec signed in 1969.
The Chronicle Herald piece is a fascinating bit of insight into the mindset behind Muskrat Falls. it shows the extent to which the Churchill Falls totem is based more on fiction than fact.
Jerome’s Grim Fairy Tale #nlpoli
Last week, some people wondered if Premier Kathy Dunderdale was out of the loop on negotiations over a federal loan guarantee when she seemed to say she did not know anything about an announcement in Labrador.
Some other people wondered if perhaps she knew about the talks but for some reason opted to claim she didn’t know what the Prime Minister would be announcing. If you want an example of the media reaction, take a look at the first story on the Here and Now broadcast on Thursday.
Reporters found her comments on Thursday afternoon so odd that one of them raised the issue with Prime Minister Stephen Harper during his news conference after the announcement. Harper replied that he did not believe the Premier was unaware of the talks and the announcement but that she was being a wily politician.
That was just part of the confusion. Later on Thursday, the announcement seemed to be off. But almost as quickly, things were back on. A story in the Chronicle Herald on Friday credited Nalcor boss Ed Martin with salvaging the deal.
How interesting, then, on Monday morning that a an entirely different story appeared, apparently from the Premier’s Office.
03 December 2012
New Politics, Polls and the Media #nlpoli
Given that the local media missed the single major story of the 2011 provincial general election until after it was over, the editors and journalists in the province might want to think about how they can better cover the next provincial election.
The Risks Just Got Even Bigger #nlpoli #nspoli
While lots of people were busily cheering Friday’s announcement of a federal loan guarantee for Muskrat Falls, they probably noticed a small but very significant detail.
The loan guarantee doesn’t exist until Emera decides to sanction the Maritime Link. Under the agreements announced earlier this year, Emera has until July 2014 to opt in to the Maritime Link. Until that happens, there is no loan guarantee for anyone.
That doesn’t mean that Newfoundland and Labrador will will put everything on hold until then. Nosirreee.
02 December 2012
2041 Group calls for release of loan guarantee term sheet #nlpoli #cdnpoli #nspoli
From the Group’s new release issued December 2:
Muskrat Falls Term Sheet Must Be Released For Public Scrutiny
“The term sheet for the federal loan guarantee for Muskrat Falls must be released for public scrutiny," say lawyers for 2041 Group.
Prime Minister Harper made it clear that the term sheet he signed is not a loan guarantee. No such guarantee yet exists for the Muskrat Falls project.
Prime Minister Harper also said that if Emera decides not to build the Maritime Link there will be no federal loan guarantee. Emera has until July 2014 to decide whether it will do so.
Group 2041 says: “Premier Dunderdale has said her government will not sanction the project without a federal loan guarantee. There is now plenty of time for the Dunderdale Government to finally commit to due diligence and a full regulatory review."
Group 2041 concludes: "It is clear that: 'No Nova Scotia' means 'No federal loan guarantee.' The November 30th term sheet must be made public immediately.”
Let’s see if the governments release anything.
-srbp-
30 November 2012
When will she quit? #nlpoli
Now that Muskrat Falls is sanctioned, it is only a matter of time before Kathy Dunderdale quits politics.
How long will we wait?
Adding the technical to the legal on the WMA #nlpoli
“We are potentially paying 6.4 Billion for 170 MW of firm power, which will just be enough to meet the Emera commitment,” notes JM in discussing one scenario in his latest commentary The Water Management Agreement and Peak Load Delivery to the Island.
The scenario JM is referring to involves irregular production by Churchill Falls of 20 days at full capacity and 11 days at a minimum level. Nalcor laid it out in one of its presentations to the PUB:
This adds a significant new technical dimension to the ongoing water management agreement controversy.
29 November 2012
10 Reasons to Oppose Muskrat Falls #nlpoli
For posterity, here are Simon Lono’s 10 reasons to oppose Muskrat Falls. He tweeted them on Wednesday, November 28.
Your humble e-scribbler buggered up the list from Twitter so Simon sent along the correct versions, now updated (4 December)
Oh for God’s sake, just get a room #nlpoli
If you want to read a strongly worded condemnation of a provincial politician, take a gander at the Telegram’s editorial on Yvonne Jones from Tuesday’s paper.
Jones told the provincial government last week that her vote in the House of Assembly on Muskrat Falls was up for sale. Word got around the province pretty quickly. And the Telegram dutifully pointed out that Jones’ pork-barrelling was from another time, a time perhaps best left behind.
The editorial tuts the appropriate tuts at Jones’ style of retail politics, but there are a few other points the Telegram didn’t make about the episode that are worth laying out.
28 November 2012
Save yourself a bundle #nlpoli
A couple of decades ago, Greg Malone made a living lampooning an actor who decided to get into politics.
Now the actor and comedian has decided to try his hand at history writing.
No small irony.
There is not a single thing – not a single, solitary, living thing – in Greg Malone’s book on the supposed Confederation conspiracy that professional Jeff Webb didn’t write about - and dismiss - already.
For those who may have missed the post and links from last April on Malone’s book, here’s the link to Webb’s piece.
Save yourself a bundle.
-srbp-
The Steve Kent Rule #nlpoli
The MFers seem to be testy these days.
They like to challenge people who aren’t keen on Muskrat Falls about something called facts.
Facts, as you will quickly discover, are what the MFers call anything Nalcor has used in its marketing campaign to sell the project.
Things that Nalcor doesn’t include in its marketing are not “facts” for the people who love Muskrat Falls.
Small problem
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