At the heart of the ongoing civil war between Danny Williams’ provincial Conservatives and Stephen Harper’s federal Conservatives is the claim by Williams that Harper broke his 2006 election promise on Equalization.
Williams wrote to each of the federal party leaders and asked the leaders to state their party’s position on Equalization.
Since people are wondering if Muskrat Falls really is still the cheapest way to make electricity for local use, let’s take a look at it.
The tale is actually very simple.
Nalcor argued that Muskrat Falls was cheaper than one alternative: an island system dependent on thermal generation using some sort of petroleum fuel like the heavy stuff burned at Holyrood.
Now that wasn’t true even in December 2010, as this SRBP post noted at the time. Even if you accept the contrived studies used in 2012 to justify Muskrat Falls, the massive cost increases for the project have made the Falls more expensive than the alternatives.
The only advantage Muskrat had over thermal (oil) was fuel and those prices have gone in one direction: down. Since you can build a new thermal plant near to the demand source, you wouldn’t need the expensive connections to the mainland. That all works for oil-fired generation and against Muskrat Falls.
Oil prices have plummeted in recent months and are forecast to stay low, Muskrat Falls’ only advantage is definitely gone.
Poof!
Last week, provincial fisheries minister Vaughn Granter held a news conference at a local restaurant known for its seafood dishes to announce that from now on, that restaurant and even ordinary consumers could buy fish.directly from a fisherman without facing any legal problems.
That may sound a bit odd to some people but truth be told the provincial government has for decades banned direct sales to consumers. Ostensibly it was based on concerns over public health but in truth it was just another way the government tried to control the hell out of the fish business.
Wonderful news.
But the really fascinating detail was buried away in Granter’s speaking notes.
The average consumer in Newfoundland and Labrador should expect to pay 51% more for electricity compared to their current rates once Muskrat Falls comes online, according to SRBP’s estimate. Nalcor figures available at the time of writing.the original version of this post suggested a rate increase of 51%.
A household that current pays $156 $179.25 a month for electricity (not including HST, basic charge or provincial rebate) will see their monthly charge increase by $94 $282 a month with Muskrat Falls included in 2020. Those calculations use Nalcor figures and current domestic electricity rates.
Former Premier Danny Williams, the man behind the project, dismissed the cost increases for the project as “mouse droppings” and nothing more than the “cost of doing business.”
Nalcor boss Ed Martin said last week that consumer prices would go up by an additional seven dollars a month due to the most recent increase. Martin didn’t explain that those calculations were merely the added costs from the latest increase added to Nalcor’s earlier forecast based on cost over-runs. What Martin also didn’t say was that Nalcor’s calculations started from an assumed price that was significantly higher than actual consumer rates at the moment.
Any oil company seriously interested in bidding on an exploration license offshore Newfoundland and Labrador isn’t likely to need the hyped presentation by the provincial government Thursday.
Exploring offshore is expensive.
Always has been.
Always will be.
Exploring beyond the 200 mile exclusive economic zone, in upwards of two kilometres of water, just makes the oil and gas all that much more costly. to find and more costly to produce.
The latest progress report shows that Nalcor had a productive summer, but an extrapolation by the researcher and writer JM of information in the latest progress reports points to first power from Muskrat Falls in September 2018 and full commercial power by the middle of 2019.
In at post at Uncle Gnarley, JM described the challenge facing Nalcor in 2015:
As correctly noted in the March 2015 oversight report the productivity improvements in Q2 2015 are essential to meeting the final milestone schedule. For the Muskrat Falls team, the summer of 2015 is really “make or break” for the project. They need to get the project back on track before the construction schedule is hampered yet again by another Labrador winter. Winter begins earlier in Labrador than it does on the Island. The project team knows this. The questions is this: is the productivity improving at a pace where the schedule can be recovered? [sic] If Nalcor have any hope for schedule recovery they must first start meeting their originally planned productivity targets. In the July 2014 schedule, they planned to complete about 6.7% of the project in Q1-2015. With all their mitigation measures, Nalcor should be looking for about 33% complete by the end of June.
New Democratic Party leader Tom Mulcair likely never imagined that an insult he threw at a couple of Parti Quebecois politicians in the Quebec National Assembly 20 years ago would come back to haunt him 2015.
Liberal candidate Nick Whalen likely never imagined that reminding Mulcair of the word he used – “Newfie” - would rob Mulcair of whatever coverage he’d hoped to get out of his campaign stop in St. John’s.
But it did.
Then the controversy over Mulcair’s remarks carried on for another two days as New Democrats whined and complained about the whole issue. That only served to keep it going.
And to make sure the story didn’t die, two national pieces - Colby Cosh (National Post) and Evan Dyer (CBC) – weighed in. Cosh and Dyer picked up on the context of the original comment and that’s where things stared to get really interesting.
Not surprisingly, Darin King has decided to leave politics after only eight years.
King is just the latest in a long line of pensionable Conservatives who have decided it would be better to quit politics now with a fat pension rather than risk sitting on the opposition benches for a few years.
If he is remembered at all, King will stand out among his colleagues in the current Conservative administration for two reasons.
A new high school has put the better part of a thousand young people on Topsail Road opposite a raft of fast food outlets and a major mall.
Young people will cross Topsail Road, a four–lane major thoroughfare in St. John’s. it is dangerous. Things will get more dangerous. City council is thinking about building a pedestrian walkway way over the street so pedestrians don’t have to cross at street level.
The pedway will be costly. Some people don’t like the cost and suggest that some other, far less expensive measures would do. Those people are wrong and here’s why.
hard to believe but it has been five years since Hurricane Igor ripped through Placentia Bay and into Trinity Bay.
What stands out most about those events today is the same as it was at the time.
First, the devastation was astounding in every respect.
Second, the resilience of the people affected by the disaster was amazing.
Third the capacity of senior government officials, politicians and bureaucrats alike, to polish their own knob without any justification remains as appalling in 2010 as it was at the time.
Tom Mulcair will not be coming back to Newfoundland and Labrador again during the current federal election.
He certainly won;t be coming back to visit Avalon and he will only be back if there is a sense that Ryan might actually have a shot at winning St. John’s South-Mount Pearl.
The only other reason he might come back is if he had a candidate in a fight for a seat. The latest poll from Mainstreet Research confirms what dedicated political analysts have known for some time: there is no race in Avalon. Liberal Ken MacDonald is miles ahead of any of his rivals.
The New Democrats are a distant second.
“Distant” means the Liberal candidate is out front by more than two to one either in decided voters or if you add leaning to the decideds.
Sometime late in the last century, Bloc NDP leader Tom Mulcair said something in the Quebec National Assembly about Newfies.
Mulcair apologised for the remark during his campaign stop in St. John’s on Sunday, and well he should
“Newfie” is a slur. Even if it is used by people from Newfoundland, the word is still offensive. In some sense, It conveys an attitude about the place as being one so destitute that people leave it in droves for a better life. In another sense, it conveys an attitude about the people as buffoons.
So Tom apologised and, as far as that goes, we should hear no more of it. What we should continue to discuss, though, is the rest of what Tom had to say.
The next provincial general election finishes on November 30, 2015.
Not the way you are used to thinking of it, right?
You think the election happens on that day because, traditionally, that’s the day when most people vote.
Thing is, voting takes place on several days and pretty much always has. In Canada, elections sometimes took weeks and months according to Elections Canada. The rules to determine who can vote also changed over time. Some elections in the 19th century had different qualifications for voters in different provinces.
Through all that, the basic goal of the election was the same: be the one who had the most votes in the ballot box when the elections officials counted them up.
As you look ahead to the fall election, the bigger political addicts among you are likely trying to figure out different aspects like how the parties might run the campaign.
We got a clue this week with the debate story. Apparently the front-runner Liberals never thought of forcing the media outlets to pool together and have one debate. Instead they took the requests one-by-one until they hit their quota of two. Anyone who came along after that, including the largest private radio network, were shit-out-of-luck.
The episode reveals a curious bit of Liberal political strategy but it made your humble e-scribbler think about a bunch of other calculations that we should likely all keep in mind.
Let’s look at the numbers.
The Liberals have decided to skip the provincial leaders debate sponsored by VOCM and the St. John’s Board of Trade.
The reason, according to Liberal leader Dwight Ball is that there is only so much time available, so the party has decided to go with the two television debates that will offer province-wide coverage.
Here are some questions that are begging for an answer…
There is a problem, apparently.
A very big problem.
In the current federal election, none of the federal party leaders have visited the province yet.
On Friday, three of the four major outlets in the province all carried some version of exactly the same story. For the quibblers, the Telly story appeared on Saturday but it had to be written at least the day before. In itself, that fact says much about the state of the news media in the province and it isn;t a good tale.
NTV had local candidates on Issues and Answers but included a reference to the absent party leaders in the set up. CBC has a commentary by Peter Cowan on its website about the issue. The Telegram story on the Great Void includes comments from Bloc-NDP incumbent Ryan Cleary for good measure. Only VOCM seems to have ignored this political bombshell.