When the status quo is not an option, Newfoundland and Labrador version

A year before the next provincial election and Premier Danny Williams shifted around a couple of bodies in his cabinet.

What is telling about this event is not so much what happened but what the Premier said about it. Aside from the platitudes about the three people who got new jobs, the Premier said the shuffle came as a result of the death of one of his ministers. That’s no doubt quite literally true, but the clear implication is that if Diane Whelan had not contracted cancer last year and, sadly, passed away a few days ago, he’d have left everything exactly as it is.

No change. 

No shuffling. 

No new direction.

Just more of the same.

Take that as confirmation that,as Bond Papers has noted before, we are in a strange pre-election period coupled with a pre-leadership spell. Ordinarily a party and a leader headed for his third term would already be looking at bringing in a new crop of faces around the cabinet table, working out some new ideas and, generally, laying the foundation for the future. Think of it as a sort of political version of Mike Holmes meets Sarah Richardson.

Successful political parties tend to re-invent themselves over time. In Alberta or in Ottawa, the more successful political parties have tended to shift as the public mood has shifted.  Different political challenges require different political styles.  The public likes change periodically,.  They get tired of the same crap over and over. The people themselves tend to wear out. There are a bunch of reasons  for it, but change is important if parties want to stay in power and actually do something while they are at it.

The alternative is that they get punted and the public sticks in another bunch. With the exception of Joe Smallwood, post-Confederation’s successful elected Premiers have tended to stay in office for 10 years or less.  Frank Mores left after seven years in office.  Ditto Clyde Wells.  Brian Peckford went for a decade but, realistically he was worn out after 1985 or 1986.

If the Tories had run a leadership campaign in 1986, they might well have carried on running the province forever.  But for some inexplicable reason, Peckford hung around growing increasingly paranoid or grandiose or whatever that was.  By the time he finally handed off, the party was so split up internally they settled on Tom Rideout.

In 1989, the Tories ran a crop of worn out faces who tried to pretend they represented change. Voters responded accordingly. In St. John’s, the Liberals scored historic victories in the 1989 election. Not post-Confederation historic, but historic electoral success since 1833 kinda stuff.

Failure to change is basically the story behind the Liberal defeat in 2003 as well.  One old Liberal political hand said publicly at the 2001 leadership convention that the party would have to change – to reinvigorate itself – or the voters would change for them.  He was right.

There is still time for the Reform-based Conservative Party currently running the province.  Nothing says the Old Man won’t shuffle his cabinet in the spring.  After all, there are a bunch of cabinet and caucus members looking at hanging up their skates next fall. Spring could still be a good time to put a lick of paint on the old house.  The scouts might have picked up a few local stars at the municipalities convention in St. John’s last week.  We won’t know for sure until happens.

But the trend and the attitudes suggest that what you are seeing today is what you will get to vote for next fall.  Any change will come after 2011.

The only problem is that the province needs some new ideas right now. 

The big news on Wednesday was an announcement by business minister Ross Wiseman that the provincial government will now aim cash handouts specifically to airplane operators.  Now this practice of offering cash hand-outs to businesses has a very long and sorry history in Newfoundland and Labrador. That history  - well known to anyone over the age of 30 in the province - and their own sorry-assed experience  - known to anyone who can read - hasn’t stopped the Reform-based Conservative Party led by Danny Williams from keeping up the practice.

From tossing public cash at any hare-brained scheme imaginable to unsustainable public spending to constantly looking for federal hand-outs, the current administration is an homage to every idea that never worked for this province.

The status quo is not a viable option for the people of Newfoundland and Labrador.

But the news from the provincial government today, on any front, is that we are doomed to more of the same.

- srbp -

The House comes back… what’s on the menu? #nlpoli

Nice to be wrong update:  The Liberals started Question Period on Monday hammering the Conservatives over the Humber Valley Paving controversy.

This is a big story with huge implications.

Original post follows

________________________________

 

As far as when Frank Coleman might find the time to get around to taking over the Premier’s job, not much as it seems. 

It’s till vague, undefined, and potentially will happen quite some time from now.

He appeared on VOCM Open Line on Friday and still talked about wanting to take the job some unspecified time after July 5th.  As for when he will get a seat in the House, Coleman is still talking – hypothetically – about some unspecified time in “the fall.”

Some people might think the cabinet shuffle changed a lot.  The Telegram editorial board is hung up on the cost.

Meh.

Osborne quits Tory caucus #nlpoli

Tom Osborne is part of the old townie Tory establishment in Newfoundland and Labrador.

He quit Kathy Dunderdale’s party on Thursday to sit as an independent member of the House of Assembly.  Osborne’s announcements sent a shock through the political community since no one saw it coming.  He cited a series of grievances he’s had with the way Dunderdale is running the party, although he never referred to the Premier by name.

Osborne’s announcement was a neat bookend to the week in which CBC’s David Cochrane reported on leaked news of a pending cabinet shuffle.  As SRBP noted, that sort of leak suggested that Dunderdale’s administration was “in far more serious political trouble than it first appeared.”

Dunderball - Traffic for Jan 10-14, 2010

Who would have thought a mere two months ago that the ruling Conservatives could be embroiled in a political clusterfrack entirely of their own making?

Who would have thought that Danny Williams would be parking in the Confed Building parking lot with Kathy Dunderdale the day before a surprise cabinet shuffle?

Well, all of that has gone to making this another big week for Bond papers traffic.  Not surprisingly, all but one of this week’s top 10 posts are all about the bizarre psychodrama that is the province’s Conservatives.

The other one is an op-ed from Kelvin Parsons that the conventionals carried and the Liberals sent along here as well. Any of the other parties who want to do the same thing are welcome to send their submissions along as well for consideration.

1. Brad and Circuses
2. Is anyone surprised?
3. Logically Challenged Conservatives
4. Cabana candidacy causes Connie caucus consternation
5. Dunderball Run!
6. The persistence of patronage politics
7. The caucus’ worst nightmare
8. Kremlinology 29:  Easybake Tories
9. Cabinet Shuffle Bored
10. A sweet energy deal for someone

- srbp -

The Minneapolis Airport Shuffle

CNN has both the transcript and audio of a police interview with a senator involved in an alleged lewd behaviour that allegedly took place in the toilet stalls at the Minneapolis-St. Paul airport. The Minnesota police released the transcript and an audio recording to the news media across the United States on Thursday.

Bond lampooned the thing a couple of days ago, and frankly the transcript doesn't add much to the whole incident; it still seems bizarre for the actions involved, the police response and - this one is really big - a united States senator absolutely an undeniably foolish enough to speak to police without a lawyer present after the senator was arrested and charged.

According to the New York Times, calls are mounting for Idaho Senator Larry Craig to resign. Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has, not surprisingly, called Craig's alleged behaviour disgraceful. Romney is shooting for the conservative vote and dumping a guy facing allegations like this would be am easy call. Add that Craig was the co-chair of Romney's campaign - that is until he resigned - and you can pretty much bet little time was taken in the Romney camp to question whether or not to stand by the guy.

While the saga of the Minneapolis Airport Shuffle seems bizarre, other aspects of the story are not. The Idaho Statesman carried a story this week of a 40-year-old Idaho Republican who claims to have had oral sex with Craig in 2004. Statesman editorials have pointed out other aspects of the case, and the senator's past, that have had an unmistakable impact on the story as it has unfolded. For example, the guilty plea to a misdemeanor charge apparently came two months after the arrest and Craig kept the incident from everyone, including his family.

The Statesman capped its coverage by calling for Craig to resign. The editorial board did so citing Craig's desire to keep secrets. and his performance in a public statement after the story broke.

There are a few observations to make, now that the story has developed further.

First of all, Bond's initial reaction was wrong. This is a very serious story. It is serious because of the senator's efforts to avoid or deny dealing with it. Craig apparently has been the subject of local rumours about his sexual activity in the past. The Minneapolis arrest appears to prove the rumours.

Second of all, and as the Idaho Statesman's editorials and coverage make plain, a lack of public accountability or attempting to deny what is obvious is considerably more damaging than dealing with the issue head on.

Third of all, Craig's posturing during the Lewinsky scandal and his opposition to equal marriage measures suggest a measure of hypocrisy, something certainly Idahoans appear not willing to tolerate.

Fourth of all, and looking at it from outside the United States, we might look in bewilderment at a culture which makes an individual's sexual orientation a political issue. Promiscuous heterosexuals can apparently run the entire United States government with not much being said about it.

Fellatio in the Oval office? Not really a problem for most Americans. Most who turned on Clinton - other than hard-core Republicans - did so because of the famous lie, not for the diddling in the broom closet.

But being a gay man?

That's another story in some parts of the United States.

The result of all this is that a 27 year political career in the United States senate has come to an inglorious end. Craig may have himself to blame, as the Statesman puts it, but at some level, there are probably a few other people who should be thinking about the opinion environment they've helped to create.

And as for the Minneapolis Airport? If the Statesman is correct and the place is a known hangout for public indecency and lewdness then by all means it needs to be stopped.

But don't stop it because the people taking part are of the same sex. Do it because none of us need to answer the call of nature either alone or to help our underage children and find adults in the next stall doing something else.

The state has no place in the bedrooms of the nation, but the porcelain palace is another matter altogether when horny Minnesotans can't just bother to get a room.

-srbp-

Montana Time #nlpoli

Both CBC provincial affairs reporter David Cochrane and Telegram editor Russell Wangersky had opinion pieces this weekend telling the provincial Conservatives that they have a big political problem now that they are in third place in a CRA poll. 

The Conservatives need to change what they are doing.

Wangersky had some specific suggestions on changes.  Cochrane added the tidbit of news that there is a cabal  inside the Tory caucus that is growing increasingly frustrated with the inaction of people running the cabinet and caucus.  They live inside The Bubble apparently.

This is pretty much the same thing SRBP has been on about for the past year or so.  The Tories are in a hole.  They need to stop digging.

Great minds think alike, eventually.

The fools differ.

Reid to go; Jones to lead party?

Gerry Reid will announce he is leaving politics today.  That's the most likely announcement he'll make.

In the meantime, the Yvonne Jones will take the job as leader of the party.

She'll also be a candidate for the leadership at the next annual general meeting in October, 2008, but for the time being Jones will claim she's just thinking about it.

Then, like party president Danny Dumaresque is already reportedly doing, Jones will quietly assemble her team and her supporters. It gives the party insiders an unfair advantage over all other comers.  Heavens knows the party doesn't need either Jones or Dumaresque at the helm, let alone after letting them have the chance to rig the process in order to get the job.

Here's the thing:

Dumaresque should already be punted as party president.  The fact he's considering a run at the leader's job is just one more excuse beyond the dozens of reasons why he shouldn't be party president. He won't resign. So put the question to him about the leadership.  If Dumaresque cannot categorically state he won't run, it's up to the party executive to fire him. On the spot.  No questions asked.

Ditto Jones. 

Either she commits to stay out of the leadership race or she doesn't take the leaders job.

The Old Hand Shuffle is one of the things that got the party into this mess in the first place. More of the same will only guarantee the political hole Jones and her friends are in will get deeper.

-srbp-

Rumpole and Justice Delayed

 

There is no question that our system provides a great method for adjudicating questions of fact and law, but given the expenditure of public funds we are obliged to the people of Newfoundland and Labrador to provide the best possible system in terms of the efficiency of the process.

Report on of the Task Force on Criminal Justice Efficiencies, February 2008

Administrative changes recommended by a committee of lawyers and judges to improve the province’s justice system still haven’t been implemented over 18 months after they were made public.

In December 2007, newbie justice minister Jerome Kennedy appointed a task force that included deputy minister Chris Curran, then Chief Provincial Court Judge Reg Reid and Mark Pike, the current associate chief judge, among others.  They issued their report in February 2008 because they were specifically directed “to make recommendations and to meet any necessary budgetary deadlines for the ensuing fiscal year.”

The committee agreed that “with appropriate leadership, goodwill and resources, its recommendations could be fully implemented by the fall of 2008.”

Some 18 months and two budgets later there is still no sign of some of the major changes, including a new system for assigning court time.  Kennedy was replaced as justice minister in late 2008 in a sudden cabinet shuffle.

In its report, the panel noted that:

Court sitting times in St. John’s have been declining for the last two years. It is a fact that in 2007, on average, in St. John’s, only 31% of the available courtroom time was utilized. For 2006 and 2007, on average in St. John’s, some 40% of the judge’s available sitting time was lost primarily due to collapsed cases.

The panel recommended use of a  Case Assignment and Retrieval System (CAARS), appointment of part-time (per diem judges) and appointment of a trial co-ordinator to oversee the efficient scheduling of cases.

In May 2008, Kennedy described the system for the House of Assembly:

So this system would be called the Case Assignment and Retrieval System, or the CAAR system, and would allow for flexibility. Essentially, what happens in Provincial Court today, if a trial is commenced, if that trial does not finish in the two days allotted then it goes to the six or eight months in the roster down the road when it next comes up to court.

Consistent with the committee recommendation, Kennedy told the legislature the target date for implementing CAARS was the fall of 2008. 

However, as cases like the Walsh trial indicate, the system is apparently still not in place. A trial co-ordinator position, also recommended by the panel to manage court schedules apparently hasn’t been hired.

One thing recommended by the panel has been implemented and that is the creation of per diem judges.  Essentially these are part time judges who are available on call and only used as needed. 

But with four vacant seats on the Provincial Court bench  - three of which are in St. John’s – the per diem judges likely wouldn’t make much of a difference to solving the problems noted in 2006 and 2007.

While Kennedy indicated in the House that the section of the act creating part-time judges wouldn’t be proclaimed until CAARS is ready, the judge positions already exist without the new scheduling system.

-srbp-

And this took three weeks?

New provincial cabinet.

No major change in major portfolios.

There are a few demotions, most notably John Hickey, Tom Hedderson and Kevin O'Brien.  The latter goes from being a potentially high profile minister in a high profile department with lots of big announcements to the minister of licenses and permits.

Hedderson goes from a lead portfolio in the arts and tourism to being, essentially, the guy who sends pay cheques to our man in a Blue Line cab on behalf of the guy he really works for, namely the Premier. Intergovernmental Affairs doesn't have the profile it once had and it doesn't look like it will become a Action central in the near future.

The table - shamelessly lifted from labradore -  shows the number of ministers and parliamentary secretaries from 1996 to the present.  The figures between 1989 and 1996 are comparable to the early Tobin period on the chart.

The official excuse is that these are new times and the province's finances are in better shape.

The real reason for the increased size of cabinet, largely through the creation of minor ministries, was politics. 

The enlarged cabinet wouldn't look so obviously political if there had been some changes to the arrangement or to the faces.

Then again, given the lack of significant change, one wonders why the House of Assembly hasn't been called back into session or why this shuffle took three weeks. Deputy premier Tom Rideout's excuses offered up when he announced the cancellation of a fall session don't seem to hold much water in light of events. 

Keep an eye on municipal affairs.  Rumour has it there is a cabinet paper on amalgamation that was put on hold pending the election;  there's a strange line in the Tory campaign platform about "no forced amalgamation."  In the absence of any discussion of municipal amalgamation, the comment just stood out. St. John's and Mount Pearl won't be dragged to the altar but on the northeast Avalon, there's always the chance a new supercity will be crammed together out of the other towns or the existing cities will swallow up bits of their neighbours. One prime candidate for elimination:  Paradise. 

One interesting observation:  With the exception of Danny Williams, Tom Rideout and Trevor Taylor, there is no one in cabinet who was elected before 2003. Keep an eye to see if the House opens only once a year in the future. The majority of members - Opposition benches included - have such little interest in the House and display such an obvious lack of interest in being there, that they'd just as soon keep it locked tight. If that happens, democracy in Newfoundland and Labrador will take another body blow.  Don't look to the opposition benches for too many voices of genuine dissent.

Big surprise:  despite all the signs of a rapprochement and much media speculation, Beth Marshall still sits on the back benchers.

-srbp-

Forget the rinse. Just repeat. #nlpoli

The same people saying and doing the same things as they have always done won’t change anything

A provincial Conservative started out the week explaining why he cut a deal with a couple of provincial Liberals so he could get re-elected.

As part of his speech on Monday, Paul Lane said:

While there are indeed many people doing quite well in this economy…there are still many people who are  not experiencing the positive impacts of our economy. As a matter of fact for many people, this economy is causing many people to fall further behind…

Those people include seniors, people with disabilities, people on fixed and low incomes, and in many cases, children. Government must focus on matters important to these people and the  “everyday person”, said Lane.

Another provincial Conservative changed his political life last week.  On Friday, Tom Marshall became the 11th Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador.  After talking the oath of office, Marshall said:

So it is therefore very important to me that all Newfoundlanders and Labradorians shall share fully and fairly in the benefits of our newfound prosperity, and have a voice in the way it is distributed.

So let us ensure that the fight against poverty and inequality intensifies in our province and we never forget the needs of those who are aged, who have disabilities, who are infirmed [sic], and who live on fixed and low incomes.

The words may be slightly different but there is no make that they both said the same thing:  government must now turn its attention to something new. 

There’s also no accident that the two said pretty much the same thing.  Tom didn’t figure out what to say after hearing Paul.  Far from it.  Much of what Paul said  - like when he spoke about “our” government - sounded like a speech he had planned for a Conservative audience.

What they were both reciting is the last script the Conservatives are turning to in their effort to find the magic message that they think will make the polls bounce upward again.

There was a lot of that  - reciting talking points - among provincial Conservatives last week.

Darin King and the Tory Charm Offensive #nlpoli

A couple of the exceedingly small changes in the recent cabinet shuffle came out of the Bill 29 fiasco.  Felix Collins went from the relatively low profile job of justice minister to the complete obscurity of intergovernmental affairs.

Everyone saw that.

And over in another corner, there was a switcheroo people didn’t notice quite as much.  Jerome Kennedy gave up the job of directing Government business in the House so that Darin King could take over.

There was no doubt Jerome had completely frigged up in the House, just like there’s no doubt the Tories are way down in the polls.  The two went hand in hand all last session and indeed, for most of the last year or more.

Darin King offers no chance of changing that.

Shuffle-up-a-gus

How often are there cabinet changes and shifts in the senior bureaucracy?

While there is no text-book solution to that question, aside from elections, resignations and political meltdowns, there usually aren’t a lot of shakeups in a team government.

The reasons are pretty simple.  Cabinet ministers and senior officials (deputy ministers and assistant deputies)  are expected to get to know their departments and the people in them, to form good working relationships and then get on with the business of running their respective shows.  cabinet will send down some instructions.  Departments are expected to come up with new ideas.

In order to do that, people have to spend time working together.  They need time to learn the issues and figure out what happens when you pull the lever over there in the corner.

All of that applies equally to both the political side of departmental management (the cabinet minister) and the public servants (deputy ministers and assistant deputies). 

In the eight years between 1996 and October 2003, successive Liberal premiers changed their cabinets (major and minor changes) 11 times. 

In the five and a half years since the fall 2003 election, the current administration has made changes to cabinet 12 times. The bulk of that shifting came in the first term, with at least two changes in assignments involving some ministers roughly every six months.

Over on the public service side, the relative numbers are even more dramatic.

Liberals:  24 appointments over eight years.

Progressive Conservatives:  37 in five and a half years or so.

Now some of these announcements were onesies and twosies, that is one appointment at a time.  In other cases, like the one made today, the changes have involved seven or eight people in different departments. 

Two of the appointments made Tuesday were for people filling jobs in an acting capacity while the person normally in the job is one some form of leave.  In some instances, there have been times when the top two positions in one department have both been acting simultaneously.  That hasn’t happened a lot but it has happened.

While changes at the cabinet level have been relatively infrequent since 2007, the same can;’t be said on the executive side.  Eight changes in 2005, but 11 in 2007, five in 2008 and four already in 2009. 

Beyond the frequency, your humble e-scribbler hasn’t finished a detailed assessment yet to see who has been moving and if there are any departments that have been the focus of the changes.

Still…

the numbers are striking.

-srbp-

The Hobby Garden of Meh, Whatever #nlpoli

What’s so striking about the race to replace Kathy Dunderdale as leader of the provincial Conservative Party is how spectacularly unspectacular it is so far.

Maybe things will change once the Conservative Party executive meets to figure out the leadership contest rules. But so far the whole thing has been decidedly dull.

Wishin' and hopin' and spewin' and sprayin'

Undoubtedly, Scott Andrews campaign took great heart this past week for stories running on CBC and in the Telegram about Fabian Manning and his expense accounts in the House of Assembly.

The race looks tight, according to an NTV/Telelink poll and those two stories might well look like the kind of ammunition needed to push Andrews into the lead.

They might.

But then again, they might not.

Here's why.

Firstly, the race in Avalon appears tight according to the NTV/Telelink poll.  Given the relatively high undecided  - 40% of respondents - it might look like pulling Andrews in front is within grasp. 

However, the undecideds are likely made up of a huge number of Fabe fans who are right now either uncomfortable in saying who they will vote for or who genuinely are hung up about whether or not to vote.

Those people are necessarily winnable for the Andrews cause.

But they have to be won.

And that leads us to the second point:  Andrews hasn't done anything to woo the undecideds. 

Thus far, Andrews has run a flame-thrower of a campaign built almost entirely on attacks straight at Manning.  Andrews has sucked the ABC tit harder than a cabinet minister looking for a new job in the upcoming shuffle.  He's not getting any milk out though because the Family Feud nipple spews only bile.  It's all negative, all the time.

The Family Feud gives nothing to which a voter can attach.

Take a listen to the Morning Show's candidate forum last Thursday and you'll see the point. [Part 1 and Part 2] 

Andrews spent way too much time slicing into Manning personally in a high pitched and grating way.  Who the heck could stand to listen to that for more than a few seconds?

The answer is no one and in the case of Morning Show listeners no one other than the handful of partisan loyalists and the masochists who just take anything political they can get regardless of what it is.

The rest of us would rather have been chained naked at Cape Spear with seagulls plucking out our eyeballs all the while enduring Slim Whitman's greatest hits at top volume rather than sit through one more second of Thursday's racket.

Take a look at Andrews' campaign website.  Look as hard as you want  and you will be hard pressed to find one single reason why anyone should vote for Andrews and the Liberal Party. There are plenty.  Andrews just isn't intent, apparently, on letting on what they are.

Third, if you look at the Manning stories, you have a hard time finding something to get really annoyed at.  In a case where the benchmarks were set by Tom Rideout and Walter Noel, Fabian Manning's handful of travel claims is hardly worth talking about. On top of that he paid back the secret bonus cash.

You don't have to like what Fabian did, but he is by far nowhere near the worst of the bunch, even if you take aside those facing criminal charges. Hey, it's not like even one of Andrews' staunchest supporters hasn't been known to change his mind completely on House of Assembly spending once the local Family head has pronounced on the matter.

How the heck will a Manning supporter react?

Even if Andrews wants to get indignant about Manning's spending, the story is still framed as what not to do.  The Connie vote is suppressed enough;  you can't suppress it more without risking post-traumatic stress disorder up and down the shore.  What's missing is the stuff to pull voters in Andrews' direction.

So far he and his team haven't shown any signs of figuring that out.

Now, their hammering might work.

The odds are against it.  No amount of wishing and hoping based on spewing and spraying has worked very well yet anywhere else.

-srbp-

The promise of a shift in political perceptions

Cabinet shuffles are often unremarkable events that make news simply because they occur.

Today's federal shuffle would be one of those occasions.  Yes, the people in the jobs deserve some recognition, but beyond noting that Gary Lunn received a royal demotion or that Bev Oda is still in cabinet in the same job - Heavens knows why - there isn't much in the news to deserve much thought.

From a Newfoundland and Labrador perspective, it may well be that the best news in many years to come from a federal cabinet is that there isn't a regional minister for this province who actually comes from this province.

The local cult of personality over the past five years has tended to personalize everything, including the importance of having a single individual to "fight for Newfoundland and Labrador."  That perspective led to first John Efford and Loyola Hearn being targeted for attack by a particular political faction largely because they offered a potential challenge to the existing self-described embodiment as an alternate locus of political power. [continued below]

"Some obstacles to democracy..."

In all important aspects of national politics, guile, compromise and a subtle kind of blackmail decided their course and determined their alliances. They appeared to discount all political or social ideologies, save nationalism. For the mass of the people the words Tory and Grit, Conservative and Liberal, referred neither to political ideologies nor to administrative techniques. They were regarded only as meaningless labels, affixed to alternatives which permitted the auctioneering of one's support; they had no more meaning than bleu or rouge, which eventually replaced them in popular speech. [They] on the whole never voted for political or economic ideologies, but only for the man or group which stood for their ethnic rights... In such a mental climate, sound democratic politics could hardly be expected to prevail, even in strictly provincial or local affairs where racial issues were not involved....

That political frame resurrected an old collective perception of Ottawa solely as a source of dole that came from the Smallwood years.  Our expectation that political success is defined solely on a politicians ability to bring home pork for the federal larder comes from the way Newfoundlanders and Labradorians received their orientation to federal politics after 1949. The Smallwood legacy in that regard is not merely lingering, it has become once more the official view.

Now to be fair, there is a tradition of some rather powerful figures from this province, including the likes of Don Jamieson and John Crosbie.  But to be really fair, their power came from their ability to discharge their responsibilities to the country as a whole as well as their inherent political and managerial skills.

People who head off to Ottawa as provincialist representatives for their own corner of the universe, and who ceaselessly work only for that patch tend to wind up - to a greater or lesser degree - like individual Blocheads:  pretty much incapable of influencing things to any significant degree.

Newfoundlanders and Labradorians can look to their federal representatives to represent their interests in dealing with the Government of Canada and in reflecting their views on national issues debated in the national parliament.

As for provincial government issues - revealed in the begging letters to Ottawa during the last election - the job now falls to the individual provincial ministers to work with their federal counterparts as needed.  The standard for judging their performance just shot up dramatically.  They don't have that convenient scapegoat anymore and high-pitched bitching will no longer be a convincing substitute for making the case and getting the job done.

On the municipal level, the effect of the last federal election might also be sorely felt.  The folly of electing inexperienced municipal representatives, particularly ones with a tendency to play petty political games or work their partisan connections, may show itself to be useless.

The end result at the provincial and municipal level may be that the job specs get boosted up a fair bit beyond where they've been for the past number of years.

At the same time, the potential exists for a fundamental shift in how Newfoundlanders and Labradorians - individually and collectively - look at federal politics.

Maybe, just maybe, some 60 years after Confederation, Newfoundlanders and Labradorians will shuck off the frame used by generations of provincialist politicians and finally participate fully in the nation's political system as they should.

We must be masters of our own house, but our house is all of Canada.

-srbp-

The DG 3 Dog and Pony Show #nlpoli

Big Show.

Room full of people all there because they have a direct interest in the project.

Live streaming by the news media.

And all to release the latest cost estimates for Muskrat Falls.  The show was so big, however, that it looked like someone had decided to puff the whole thing up to make it appear much more important than it was.

That turned out to be a fairly accurate impression.

Provincial political round-up

1. Early election? Responding to a question from reporters, Premier Danny Williams is quoted in the Saturday edition of the Telegram that he has not ruled out the possibility of an election before the planned date in October.

Williams said he had no intention of catching the opposition parties by surprise and would call the House of Assembly back to amend the elections rules if an early election was needed.

That's an odd statement since the changes Williams introduced in 2004 do two things:

First, they allow an election can be called at any time.

Second, in the event of an election before the planned date, the subsequent election would be fours years later. Given that, if the Premier did seek an election writ before October (likely time: called by the end of February with voting before Easter), the next election after that would be in October 2011, exactly as it would occur anyway.

Liberal leader Gerry Reid and New Democrat leader Lorraine Michael both criticised the idea of an early election. Both said there was no need of going short and that an early election would forestall the Auditor General's review of the House of Assembly. Michael said an early election would go against the spirit of Williams' own amendments in 2004.

2. More AG news on Monday. Auditor General John Noseworthy will hold a news conference on Monday to discuss double billing by members of the House of Assembly.

3. Kennedy will run. St. John's lawyer Jerome Kennedy [left. Photo: cbc.ca] announced this weekend he will be seeking the Tory nomination in Carbonear.

Local political scuttlebutt has it that Kennedy intended all along to run in his old hometown seat but was talked into the Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi by-election by Danny Williams.

As Bond Papers already suggested, don't be surprised to see Kennedy appointed to cabinet well before the next election. A cabinet shuffle could come any time before the end of February as the Premier gears up for the next election.

In related news, the provincial Tories placed newspaper ads over the weekend calling on interested people to contact party election chairman Ross Reid about their potential candidacy in any of the seats currently not held by the Progressive Conservatives. Several other seats are expected to vacated by current members of the legislature who won't be seeking re-election.

No planning and priorities: Conservative cabinet committees - 2013 #nlpoli

There’s one little gem in James McLeod’s pile of censored orders in council that isn’t censored.

It dates from January 2013 and gives the current list of cabinet committees.

There’s the economic policy committee:

There’s the social policy committee:


There’s the treasury board:

And there’s the routine matters committee:

Charlene Johnson and Tom Hedderson also sit on that routine committee.

There’s a curious omission in this list and it doesn’t appear to be a case where the committee make-up didn’t change after the cabinet shuffle with Jerome Kennedy and Tom Marshall.

There’s no planning and priorities committee, apparently. That’s odd because P and P is usually the key cabinet committee chaired by the Premier and responsible for the strategic direction of government. Kathy used to have one in her cabinet.  Every cabinet in Canada uses a planning and priorities committee.  Most have had one for the past three decades or more.

At some point, the Newfoundland and Labrador one seems to have vanished without an effective replacement.

That would explain a great deal.

It would explain, for example, why the Premier often seems to be unaware of what is going on inside her government.  She wouldn’t know because she doesn’t appear to have anything to do with the running of cabinet.  And that, more than anything else, is what the Premier is supposed to be doing. 

Rather than being the boss, Kathy Dunderdale often appears to be nothing more than the government’s official spokesperson, the dead parrot as it were.

In the absence of a P and P committee,  cabinet would have to hope that the key committee chairs could sort out among themselves what to do.  They would be:

• Joan Shea, chair of economic policy,
• Susan Sullivan, chair of social policy, and,
• Jerome Kennedy, president of treasury board.

Whatever the government is doing, these three would know about it and approve of it. 
In December 2010, cabinet had a P and P committee.  It’s members were:

-srbp-

Latest worst kept secret; more elec spec

Danny Williams suggests there may be a pre-election cabinet shuffle.

In related news, the number of Tories running to replace Loyola Sullivan is at five and headed to as many as eight according to CBC radio. The words that come to mind are "safe seat".

Spec on Loyola's sudden departure continues to mount. There's the version that he had his office cleaned out either before he told Danny or a handful of hours afterward. That's quick.

Then there's the version that Sullivan brought back a deal on Equalization that would include a phase in period, with transitional grants for provinces like Newfoundland and Labrador that would see a drop in their Equalization payments under the new scheme.

This one sounds plausible since transitional grants were part of the Connie 2004 election platform. Then they were looking at 12 years of transition; the figure bandied around now would be more like four.

The falling out under that scenario came when Premier Danny Williams rejected any loss of revenue.

Then there's the last explanation of Loyola's abrupt departure which holds that the Rain Man from Ferryland was growing increasingly frustrated with how things run - or sometimes don't run - in the Confederation Building these days. That's plausible too.

Speculation is already growing about who won't be running in the next election. Names tossed around so far include deputy ayatollah Tom Rideout, intergovernmental affairs minister John Ottenheimer and municipal affairs minister Jack Byrne for the Tories. On the Liberal side, the names include Kel Parsons, Judy Foote, Percy Barrett and just about half the caucus.

Names vary depending on who you talk to for both Liberals and Tories looking to quit politics. Only time will tell.

There's no speculation on Ross Reid, formerly the deputy minister to the premier, who resigned today to head up the provincial Tory re-election campaign.

Reid is widely respected and capable. If your humble e-scribbler hasn't said so before, let's make it plain now: Reid would be the finest replacement for Danny when he finally packs it in on the planned departure date in 2010. If Reid ever decides to get back into politics either federally or provincially, he can expect wide support. There simply aren't that many people in the province with Ross' talents.

Of course, that appointment is sure to raise the spectre of an early election call in Newfoundland and Labrador. There are no signs of a quickie writ at all, but Reid's appointment might just start tongues wagging. The Premier could use either a new war with Ottawa over Equalization as the premise or he could seek an endorsement of his energy plan and playing hardball with the oil companies. Either way it would be a jihad against foreign infidels which tends to play well in local politics, especially when led - as in 1982 - by our own version of the Mad Mullah.

If Claudia Cattaneo's Financial Post piece turns out to be accurate in its speculation an energy plan mandating an automatic Crown interest in any offshore field would need a public endorsement to withstand the onslaught of criticism. It would also be an unassailable political issue akin to the January 2005 offshore deal where emotion - and a heckuvalot of sheer political bullshit - trumped reason yet again. Liberal candidates would be falling over themselves to endorse the position, just as they did in 1982.

As for political fall-out, Danny Williams might take a few seconds of heat for not waiting until October but even in the worst case scenario, any criticism of an early election would evaporate well before polling day and would have absolutely nil negative impact on Danny Williams' re-election. The full impact - as in 1982 - wouldn't be felt until after Danny is gone.

Oh.

And for those who think there's no way to go early, recall that the so-called fixed elections date bill didn't really set a fixed date for elections. The 2004 amendments to the House of Assembly Act state clearly:

3. (1) Notwithstanding subsection (2), the Lieutenant-Governor may, by proclamation in Her Majesty’s name, prorogue or dissolve the House of Assembly when the Lieutenant-Governor sees fit.

(2) A polling day at a general election shall be held on the second Tuesday in October, 2007 and afterward on the second Tuesday in October in the fourth calendar year following the polling day at the most recently held general election.

Practically, we wouldn't need an election before October but - just as in 1999 - the Premier's agenda may trump all others'. Way back then, Brian Tobin's eagerness to head back to Ottawa with two election victories led him to plan an election for early September 1998. First signs emerged in April of that year but Tobin's plans were bumped back, at the last minute, by a caucus that was uncomfortable with an election only two years after the previous one. Tobin dropped the writ in January 1999 instead.

Breaking: Sullivan surprise resignation

Loyola "Rain Man" Sullivan stunned Newfoundland and Labrador today by announcing his immediate departure from politics.

Sullivan - who was minister of finance and president of treasury board - submitted his resignation this morning. Premier Danny Williams will be available to meet with reporters at 1300 hours today. No word yet on a cabinet shuffle

Bond Papers will update, as information becomes available.