06 July 2012

More Hole Spotting #nlpoli

After the shock that evidently settled into the local Tories, the next most obvious thing about Thursday was the complete absence of any official provincial Tory anywhere saying anything about anything.  The usual clan of Tory Twitter Spam Spitters – Sandy Collins, Steve Kent, Vaughan Granter, and Paul lane  - were nowhere to be seen.

Normally these guys are everywhere spewing whatever bullshit talking point they have to spew.

Thursday?

Crickets.

or was it knobby knees knocking?

Look at the regional breakdowns for the Environics poll and you can see something your humble e-scribbler suggested would shape the next election.  In 2015, we’ll be watching a fight between the Tories and Dippers for government.

The Tories will be struggling to hold onto mastery in the northeast Avalon. 

  • NDP 49%
  • PCs 31%
  • Liberals 19%

Outside St. John’s, you’ll see the Tories and the NDP duke it out as the Liberals get squeezed.

  • NDP 32%
  • PCs 38%
  • Liberals 30%

Now if Yvonne Jones’ comments to CBC in Thursday are any clue, they are hanging onto their standing in rural newfoundland as some sort of triumph.  Given the strength of the NDP at this early stage, that’s pretty much a case of whistling past the graveyard. They have no presence in the vote rich north-east Avalon and in rural Newfoundland and Labrador, they are already in third place.  Ruralism is a suicide pact, not a strategy for a viable political party.

How long have they been in power?  An Environics spokesman talked to CBC about the drop for the Tories in the six months since the last general election. Someone else might suggest that Kathy Dunderdale hasn’t had much time to develop her agenda.

The last election took place eight months ago, give or take a few weeks.

She’s been Premier since December 2010. That puts her in charge for the better part of 18 months. From 2006 onward she occupied a senior portfolio in her predecessor’s cabinet and after Tom Rideout bailed, she took on the job of deputy Premier.

The time-in-office of the whole team is part of the context some people are missing here.

-srbp-

No comments: