05 June 2009

Bluenose Dippers in front: Angus Reid

A poll by Angus Reid for CTV shows the Nova Scotia New Democrats with 47% support heading into Tuesday’s general election, ahead of the Liberals at 26%, the progressive Conservatives at 23% and the Greens at 3%.

The online poll, conducted June 1 and 2, reports a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The new poll, which is considerably more comprehensive in its detail than recent efforts by Halifax-based Corporate research Associates shows Nova Scotians looking for change. 

The poll also tracks apparent vote switching, with the New Democrats holding on to their 2006 votes and adding chunks from both other major parties.  The Angus Reid/CTV poll also carried enough detail to look at the geographic distribution of votes, something that would be important for trying to predict seat counts:

In contrast, the NDP appears to have gained broad-based support both regionally and politically. The party holds the upper hand in most regions except rural Cape Breton (where the Tories lead) and the Annapolis Valley (where the Liberals are ahead). While holding on to 83 per cent of their vote from the last election—the highest vote retention of any contending party—the NDP is drawing about a third of voters (31%) who backed the Liberals in 2006 and a quarter (26%) of respondents who supported the Tories. NDP voters are also more likely to vote than supporters of the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives, suggesting that even a low turnout will not slow Dexter’s momentum.