21 May 2005

Dump Harper old news

Paul Wells is linking to a piece in the Toronto Star that raises the idea there is a Dump Harper movement forming.

Members of the cabal are reputed to be David Orchard, Sinclair Stevens and David Asper.

Wells rightly dismisses this as sarcastically as he can, not because it is untrue but because it is not very surprising.

A couple of days ago, I offered up the link to Stevens' new website called Bloc-Harper. Orchard is the guy Peter MacKay, DDS screwed by dumping him for Stephen Harper.

As an aside, Peter is understandable distraught that he has been screwed and then dumped in the recent defection of Belinda Stronach. He whispered through an interview with Anthony Germaine on Saturday morning, obviously emphasizing the level of his emotional angst over Belinda. [Shades of Warren the K at Gomery - whisper for dramatic effect - but I digress even further.] Maybe Peter is concerned about the way he was screwed and then dumped as opposed to screwing by dumping. That's the only difference I can possibly see by examining Peter MacKay's relationship management history.

Anyway...

The Star piece is a penetrating insight into the obvious. The only thing mildly amusing is the reminder that Peter MacKay's Dad, with whom the erstwhile Connie dentist sought solace in Belinda's wake, was at the heart of the Dump Joe Clark movement in the early 1980s.

Enjoy the weekend. Unless something truly inspiring occurs, you humble scribbler will be taking some much deserved rest for a couple of days.

20 May 2005

Vickers Vimy on the way to recreate historic flight

Here's the link to the official website of the team planning to recreate the famous trans-Atlantic flight by John Alcock and Arthur Whitten Brown from St. John's to Ireland in 1919.

The Vimy left California yesterday and is due to arrive in St. John's around the first of June. Plans are to attempt the ocean crossing in the second or third week of June.

The only model kit I can find of the Vimy is this one, available only by special order from Eastern Express.

Friday Funny

No, I don't mean John Crosbie getting yet more national airtime to work out his peculiar view of history.

Someday, I'll reprint his ancien bon mots about Stephen Harper.

Nope.

For Friday before the Great Newfoundland Shiver in the Woods, I thought I'd generate a Team Martin sign of my own.

The Connies and Warren the K are using the site it for their purposes.

Here's mine. I figure the skid marks on the lawn were made by the Connie election bus as everyone fought over who was driving.

Go make your own sign at this spot.

The Why Incision

Over the past few months, readers of The Sir Robert Bond Papers have been treated to jabs aimed at Conservative members of parliament (MP) Norm Doyle and Loyola Hearn.

They have heard about cases of pinocchiosis inflicting one or the other and of both of them scoring zero on the Cred-o-Meter (r) on several occasions.

All fine, humourous and undoubtedly as annoying as those comments were to Hearn and Doyle supporters, they are rooted not so much in partisanship as in an acknowledgement of the fundamental gap between what these gentlemen have said in the past and what they have done in the present.

The entire Fair Deal for Newfoundland campaign to pressure Hearn and Doyle, the calls to call-in radio shows, all have their origins in the vocal chords of the two MP.

Here are some samples of what they said on the issue of the offshore revenue deal and how a member of parliament should vote:

"I'’m there to look after Newfoundland, and the six other MPs also, and if we’re not we shouldn’'t be there."

- – Loyola Hearn, July 4, 2004

"We're sent to do a job; we'll stand up for Newfoundland regardless of who's for us or who's against us."

- – Loyola Hearn, November 13, 2004

"Never again do I expect to see the members from our province in such a position of clout. It would be a terrible shame if that clout were squandered by not using it at all."

–- Norm Doyle, October 26, 2004

"Why can we not, just once, stand united for the province of Newfoundland and Labrador? Why can we not, just once, stand on guard for the people of Newfoundland and Labrador?"

–- Norm Doyle, October 26, 2004

These two gentlemen never hesitated for one second to conjure the spirits of nationalism and populism when they could be directed against their target: John Efford. They reveled in the damage the demons inflicted inflicted, making a very difficult issue intensely personal.

Mr. Hearn, in particular, proved that perceptions of him as a kind and decent fellow were utterly false. His deeply personal remarks, at times, were nothing short of scurrilous. They were hardly becoming of a former provincial cabinet minister, let alone a member of our national parliament and a potential federal cabinet minister in waiting.

It should be no surprise therefore that some people took delight in his predicament over bills C-43 and C-48. No surprise, therefore that the populist was hoist with his own petard.

The problem for Hearn and Doyle, however, is not a partisan one.

The tragedy of Doyle and Hearn is that they represent an old-fashioned approach to politics which has past. These men learned their politics in the 1960s and 1970s, practiced it through the Peckford insanity and then stumbled into Opposition in the 1990s. They slipped back behind the scenes only to re-emerge in the federal legislature where they sat largely unnoticed until recently.

Events of the past six months have shown both Doyle and Hearn to be mere relics of a style of politics that took voters for granted, that treated them as ignorant, that saw no problem with saying one thing and doing another.

Consider Hearn's recent post office nonsense.

Consider Hearn issuing a constituency flyer before the last election saying that Equalization clawbacks were contrary to the Atlantic Accord, while the clawbacks that existed were exactly the ones he voted to support in 1985.

Consider Hearn's attack on a fisheries matter in another jurisdiction that did not affect this province at all, yet was whipped into an Open Line Crisis. The ship in question, leased from a foreign owner was subsequently bought by the Canadian company thus giving the lie to Hearn's accusation that a Liberal government in Ottawa was letting foreigners take our fish.

Consider Hearn lately explaining how one bill must go through six stages before cash could flow (there are actually seven) taking upwards of a year while another bill could seemingly float magically through the same process in mere weeks.

Consider just within the past week, Hearn and Doyle flanking their Leader as he explained that they had developed a confidence two-step which, as Stephen Harper admitted, was merely a device to prevent Hearn and Doyle from being accused of voting against their province. This sham did not last to see the light of the next day.

Did they really think people were so gullible, so completely stupid?

To be fair, parliamentarians serve many masters with different interests. It is unreasonable to expect that they always side with their constituents, their party or their leader. Our democratic system is built on the expectation that parliamentarians will learn to balance the competing interests and ultimately exercise their best judgment on our behalf.

But here is where the modern democracy differs from the version that Hearn and Doyle practice. Modern democracy is a dialogue. Voters expect that politicians will speak frankly and reasonably. They expect to have discussion and disagreement. They expect that a politician will tell them what he or she plans to do and explain why in plain English.

The jibes to one side, the main reason why these electronic scribbles have poked at Hearn and Doyle is because they failed to measure up, not to their self-imposed standard of populist nonsense but to the baseline for modern democracy in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Hearn and Doyle had ample opportunity to state exactly what they were going to do on Thursday and explain why they thought it best for the country and the province. Let their Leader be hysterical and angry. Seasoned politicians can be strong-minded but relentless in their explanations.

What we got instead from Hearn and Doyle was spin - misrepresentations, half-truths and in some cases contradictory answers from one question to another.

What we got from Hearn and Doyle was weak through and through and relentless only to the extent they both regurgitated their talking points over and over.

Not once did they even pretend to hold an intelligent conversation with their constituents.

To make matters worse, Hearn in particular picked fights - needless fights - with Premier Williams. His "neophyte" crack, if said in the heat of the moment could have been easily forgiven with an apology. Instead, Hearn made the matter worse with further insults, backed, a few days ago by the ever-charming Mr. Harper. To his credit, the Premier displayed restraint when asked to reply.

Hearn and Doyle together persisted in their implausible positions to the point where even their own supporters in the provincial Tory caucus were openly talking of deserting them. Whatever shred of credibility they had even with the most stalwart of Tory supporters, must surely be stripped from them by now. As some have said, how can they go door to door with these guys and sincerely ask voters to support them?

Taken all together, it would be very surprising if either Hearn or Doyle survived to the next election.

Both Hearn and Doyle barely won their seats in the last election. Hearn, in particular, had counted on an easy win in a safe seat; instead he found that a neophyte came within a hair's breadth of defeating him. His weak position in the riding has grown steadily weaker since the last election and in the past several days, one can see that whatever pillars served as his support have been demolished with his own jawbone.

When they stood to vote against the federal government's budget, Hearn and Doyle were seen as voting against their own province and their own people. Neither Doyle nor Hearn bothered to explain themselves to the very people whose support they needed. They left that perception to become reality and it has been their undoing.

Norman Doyle and Loyola Hearn represent a style of politics long since mouldering in the ground.

It remains now for someone else to write the epitaph.

This has been merely a political autopsy.

Liveblog: Dead Man Talking on CBC

Hearn continues to spin despite being politically dead.

1. First person to raise the offshore revenues clawback problem in Ottawa 15 years ago (not 5):

Clyde Wells

2. First National Leader to reject the Williams proposal:

Stephen Harper

This guy is absolutely amazing.

Proven wrong again and again and again and he still sticks to the same spin.

19 May 2005

Two "C"s to thank

Two members of parliament deserve the thanks of every Newfoundlander and Labradorian for helping push forward the government's budget bill:

Chuck Cadman and Carolyn Parish. The Two "C"s.

The other two C's, Conservatives Hearn and Doyle abandoned their province to side with their own personal and party interests. They followed their master's orders.

The Midnight Shuffle about voting for one bill but against the other never survived the light of the next day as commentator after commentator explained that it was procedural gobbledy gook. It was a pack of nonsense and easily seen as such.

Finance minister Ralph Goodale explained the silliness of the Doyle Hearn two-step to Open Line audiences next day.

And if that wasn't good enough, Premier Danny Williams made it plain how he viewed it.

So bad was the Doyle/Hearn position that, as stated here several days ago, the two local Connies had even alienated their base of local workers. Local Progressive Conservative friends of the pair have said openly that they will have a hard time knocking on doors for Doyle and Hearn.

So thanks, Chuck and Carolyn. If Conservatives live to their word, they will back off their plans to topple the government. The budget will be passed and offshore revenue cash will flow by the end of the current session - in June. For the record that is at least a full year before Stephen Harper's personal best estimate of when he might have been able to deliver something following an election.

In the meantime, Doyle and Hearn have shown their true colours.

Not pink white and green as Hearn likes to pretend, nor the red, white, blue and gold of the current provincial flag.

Nope.

Norm and Loyola are deepest of deep blue.

They are true Reformatories.

Voters will remember who delivered the offshore revenue money.

That's why Norm and Loyola are still running scared.

The sad state of politics and journalism...

in this country is revealed by the excessive attention on The National and elsewhere over the relationship between Belinda and Peter MacKay, DDS.

I'd hate to see Pete go through the breakup of a relationship that lasted longer than a handful of months. Get a grip, man.

As for the journalists, try doing a series of stories on shallowness among the country's scribbling class as revealed by the reporting on the Stronach business.

Jane Taber, for example, is starting to sound like Joan Rivers without the wittiness of that decidedly unfunny bauble-hawker.

18 May 2005

Sinc the Slasher - Crusading Tory

While leisurely scrolling through the raft of news release on Canada Newswire, I came across this curious thing about something called Bloc-Harper warning that Stronach's defection was the start of something big.

Anyway, here's the full release.

Then you can find your way to the full site here.

The domain is registered to one Sinclair Stevens, former cabinet minister in the Mulroney government who has been fighting relentless against the assimilation of the old Progressive Conservative Party by the Borg-like Reformers.

He is apparently going to have merchandise to flog.

While mainstream media will likely never cover something like this, its sheer quirkiness makes it perfect for the land o' blogs.

Unlike John Crosbie, Sinc's old cabinet mate, Stevens knows the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada is dead.

Meanwhile on Crap Talk...

John Crosbie, former gauleiter of Newfoundland, and Bill Rowe, former envelope chucker and perpetual crank, are engaged in a mutual massage-fest dissecting current goings on.

Crosbie talks about a signed contractual document namely the offshore deal and why it should be a separate bill like the Real Atlantic Accord.

Simple answer, since John's memory is failing, is that the Real Accord represented some major policies that affected federal legislative jurisdiction. The bill took two full years to get through the House and Senate.

The current document is merely authority to spend money and doesn't amend any other legislation, the Accord implementation act included. Including it within C-43 is the fastest way to get it done.

Meanwhile, since John said he never turned his back on this province, I draw your attention once more to the vicious comments Mr. Bumble...err... Mr. Crosbie made in the fall of 1990 when the provincial government asked him if they might have the revenue portions of the Accord changed. Check out here and look for "John Crosbie and hand-biting".

It took a Liberal government in Ottawa (Paul Martin as finance minister and then Paul Martin as PM) to help people who Mr. Crosbie considered to be ungrateful wretches biting the hand that fed them.

Oh by the way, JC is Atlantic co-chair of the Conservative Party campaign, not the Progressive Conservative Party campaign. The latter was killed off in the Reform take-over that spawned the Harper party currently in Opposition.

Now come to think about it, that would make this John Crosbie's third political party, not counting the work he did for the anti-Confederate movement in the National Referenda.

Now it all comes back to me. Crosbie bolted from the Liberal Party after failing to win the party leadership in 1968. He then joined the Tories, became a cabinet minister, and boosted the deficit and debt to then-record heights through spending including buying up the Upper Churchill project before rushing to Ottawa in 1976.

Then he tried for the Tory leadership and hung around long enough to be a successful, albeit cranky, cabinet minister.

To paraphrase one long-time acquaintance of the former gauleiter, Crosbie has wanted to be leader of everything he has ever been part of since the Boy Scouts.

Come to think of it, ambition plus floor crossing makes Mr. Crosbie eminently qualified to comment on Ms. Stronach's recent actions. The only problem for JC is that the bricks he chucked via Bill Rowe's new show Crap Talk are likely to rebound against the glass walls of Mr. Crosbie's current abode.

Guess Norm thinks I am effective, but won't pay me

Here's the CBC Radio online version of the story featuring Norman Doyle.

I was struck by one line in particular:

"Doyle blamed 'Liberal spin doctors' in St. John's for creating the impression that the Atlantic Accord will be wrecked if the government falls."

Mr. Doyle is rather specific about where these nefarious people - Liberal "spin doctors" - actually live. He says St. John's, not Ottawa or even Aurora-Newmarket.

Nope.

Norm said St. John's.

Now, truthfully, I don't think for a moment Norm would stoop to calling me anything. I have no reason to believe he knows I am still alive.

I just thought the line was cute.

Where do I send the bill, Norm?

Meanwhile, the other beleaguered Connie incumbent in this province, one Norman Doyle told CBC Radio that the offshore deal is agreement between two governments and is therefore safe no matter what happens.

Regular readers will recognize two things:

1. The fact that this date (May 18) marks the very first time Doyle has said anything even vaguely like this about the offshore deal; and,

2. The stunning similarity between Doyle's new position and the one I posted here on Monday, May 16 under the title "Norm Doyle: Connie talking points change.

Here's a snippet - "In the meantime, the Connies - for some bizarre reason - have been consistently avoiding the most obvious position:

"The Accord is a deal between two governments. Whether we implement the current agreement or replace it with a much better deal - the Harper Equalization changes - a Conservative government will deliver for the people of Newfoundland and Labrador."

Ok, Norm.

Where do I send the bill for my consulting services?

I may have put that comment out there in a public forum but if you used it, you'd better pay for it. Since you only used half the comment, I'll only charge you half my usual rate.

Hearn pinocchiosis reaches terminal stage

In comments on CBC radio today, Loyola Hearn said that he could not stand for spending outside the budgetary process.

He might want to tell us what that is.

The agreement with the New Democrats is obviously within the budgetary process since a bill authorizing the expenditure is currently before the Commons.

Mr. Hearn either doesn't understand how our system of government works or he simply says whatever comes into his head to justify his actions.

Harper's rolling thunder of (self-)destruction

Speaking at a scrum in Ottawa, Conservative leader Stephen Harper has confirmed that the Conservative Party will vote in favour of Bill C-43, the budget measure containing the offshore revenue. However, they will vote against the second measure, which includes the agreement with the New Democrats.

As a result, the government would fall if it lost the vote on bill C-48.

The vote for C-43 - and the offshore money - in that context would be completely disingenuous. This new caucus manouevre is a cynical attempt at political manipulation of the likes the Conservatives have resorted to repeatedly.

The Conservatives and economist Stephen Harper are mired in a technocrat's argument, talking endlessly about process, often doing so as if they had no idea what the process actually was. Their arguments about separate bills for the offshore passing quickly or the absurd idea that the budget for 2004 was only passed last week are cases in point.

None of those arguments resonate in the public. Voters are are only concerned about results. Conservatives have increasingly been talking in terms that only they can hear or care about.

For the past six weeks Harper's Conservatives have sustained a shrill strategy focused almost exclusively on pushing up Liberal "negatives" in polling. They have done nothing to boost their own "positives". This explains very easily the persistent problem the Conservatives have been having in translating their approach into any meaningful gain in opinions polls.

Their latest effort - the radio spots - just reinforce a screeching message that people other than Connie loyalists started tuning out weeks ago. They continue an unproductive approach that had already begun to alienate voters by the time the spots hit the air.

Conservative references to mafioso and Liberals in the same breath are are part of same dog-whistling approach that appeals only to their own hard-core members. It does nothing to draw new supporters. In fact, it alienates a great many people the Connies would need to win.

Last week's antics in the Commons were seen by many as the childish tactics of those bent merely on destroying the Liberals, rather than presenting themselves as an alternative. The approach actually reinforced negative attitudes toward Stephen Harper and the Conservatives. It was a clear case of a series of self-inflicted wounds.

While national pundits could easily predict we will head to the polls if Harper has his way, what they consistently miss is that the Conservatives are stuck in the mud. Andrew Coyne's comments on the eastern edition of The National were a case of whistling past the political graveyard. The Connies, said Coyne, were building up in the polls from where they finished the last election. The problem Coyne avoided was that over the past few weeks, the Connies have been yo-yoing up and down. They are not on the way up.

For a party which has been engaged in an incestuous conversation with itself, today's defection by Belinda Stronach has produced even more damage, again, much of it self-inflicted.

Belinda Stronach's defection today highlighted all the worst things from the Conservative perspective:

- Obvious internal divisions over policy, reputed to be fairly significant, between the Reform wing and the Progressive Conservative wing.

- Internal leadership challenges and hence heightened speculation that Harper's push to the polls was motivated by self-preservation. Harper's comment to his wife said more about his own nervousness than about Belinda's overweaning desire.

- Harper's predictable reaction to the defection - as noted in Minister Stronach - was negative and at times catty and sexist. In every respect, the Conservative reaction to l'affaire Stronach pushed potential middle-of-the-road voters away from them. Sexist references by everyone from Harper on down reinforce the suspicion in the minds of many voters that the Connies are either not ready or not fit to govern or, worse, that they have a hidden agenda just waiting to be implemented.

- Stronach's defection was worth at least a five point boost in the polls for the Conservatives. With their margins close across the country and with their recent Ontario numbers looking dismal, going to the polls would be a case of political suicide.

- Expect the attacks on Stronach, like this one, or this one, or this one, to boost her worth by another five points. Consider, as well, these comments by a western Conservative who stops an inch short of calling Stronach a dumb blonde. This man is cabinet material?

The twisting approach - vote for C-43//vote against the NDP agreement portions - will only further damage Conservative credibility. It will be seen as a cynical and transparent effort to play games with matters that are fundamentally important to people. Stephen Harper is so genuinely concerned with what Newfoundlanders and Labradorians think that he will lie to their faces about what he is actually doing, let alone about what his intentions are. Stephen Harper the anti-democrat, the elitist, the sexist shines through his every word.

One need not take my word for it. As CTV is reporting, Harper wasted no time in his scrum announcing the budget two-step to lash out, as CTV puts it, at the Progressive Conservavtive premier Danny Williams. The budget dance may fool some of the provincial Conservavtives but the ongoing war of words with the Premier will suppress local party workers on whom both Doyle and Hearn will depend to vote for them and to get out their vote. For a man who won his seat by the thinest of margins, Loyola Hearn cannot afford to be alienating any more provincial Tories. [Note: If you missed David Cochrane's report this morning, here's a link to the full Harpoer scrum. It requires Windows Media Player.]

Doyle and Hearn have stood with their leader, but increasingly one must wonder what they are standing for. It surely is not the best interests of the country, let alone the province. Surely, they cannot seriously contend that Stephen Harper is the very best this country can produce to be prime minister at this time.

Pushing the country into an election the people of the country don't want was never a smart idea. It reflects the belief that politics is a game and that term has been bandied about with too much regularity lately by Conservatives. Politics as a game is explicit in Harper's reliance on game theorists to develop strategy. It is further evidence that they are fundamentally out of touch with the majority of Canadians.

The Conservatives may succeed in forcing an election now, after all that has occurred, and after doing a quick zig-zag for part of the budget and against part of it. One can only expect that the united right experiment will fly apart under the strains of running an election at full throttle. Debris will be scattered over a far greater area than an incoming Titan missile on the Grand Banks.

It will not be a pretty sight.

The rolling thunder you hear will be the disintegration of a political party glued together in an effort to gain power in Ottawa. The glue of individual ambition grows quickly brittle.

The Conservative party will have fallen apart as a result of a strategic approach as fundamentally unsound as the one used to develop the original Rolling Thunder.

Neither war nor politics is a game.

Stephen Harper defends Doyle and Hearn

Stephen Harper from his post-caucus scrum:

"What is the next thing [after passing the budget]? We are going to be asked to have a bunch of mafia people working for the government because it might get Danny Williams money a couple of weeks earlier?"

The effectiveness of the recent campaign by Fair Deal for Newfoundland can be seen by the presence of Norm Doyle and Loyola Hearn on either side of Stephen Harper during the scrum. These guys have likely never been under such intense political pressure in their long political lives.

Neither Doyle nor Hearn looked very happy.

Guess what? This little budget fiddle won't ease the pressure at all.

More to the point, Harper's stupid remarks aimed at Danny Williams will actually ramp up the pressure on the lone Conservatives on the island portion of the province.

Incidentally, in French, Harper said that this plan was the Consewrvative attention all along. They kept it secret for undisclosed tactical reasons. Maybe their constituency offices needed practice handling gajillions of e-mails. Maybe Loyola and Norm don't sweat enough.

In English, Harper said this approach would prevent Liberals from saying that the Conservatives had voted against the provisions of Bill C-43. This is at odds with statements made by Conservatives, including Stephen Harper, over the past two weeks that they opposed the government and the budget.

Apparently, Harper is prepared to vote against C-48 which contains money for children and students, but in favour of money for children and seniors because C-43 conforms to the Conservative Party principles. That sounds to me like a convenient bit of spin as the Connies focus on process and tactical navigation rather than strategic thought.

17 May 2005

Minister Stronach - (updated)

In light of the move by Belinda Stronach to cross the floor and sit with the government, it is interesting to look more closely at the cracks appearing in the Conservative Party. [Update: Links added]

Update: For those who not know what Belinda looks like, here's a shot from Greg Locke's blog. Greg shot Belinda on several occasions for different publications and I wish he'd create a page of the shots. Notice the guy to the right in this one.

The Lampoon this morning caused Connie hearts to skip a beat with the possibility that Doyle and Hearn might cave under political pressure and vote for the budget.

Update II: Don't count on it. Loyola is doing the usual talking points on CBC Radio, calling the prime minister's comments "down-right lies". I'll leave it to you to judge who is saying things that aren't true. Loyola knows full well that if the government is defeated before any bill gets to the Royal Assent stage - stand-alone or budget - the offshore bill won't get passed and no money flows to the province until a bill is passed.

Update III: The Conservative House Leader is confident all his members will vote against the budget bill(s). The local boys are just being cagey.

Original post resumes: Now the woman reputedly involved romantically with the Connie deputy leader has abandoned the good ship Connie-pop. This cannot be good for Peter MacKay DDS, on any level.

The likely response of the Harperites (the Reformers in the party) will be to look more closely at the former Progressive Conservatives in their midst. Every word will be dissected for signs of disloyalty. There will be no room for dissent.

Therefore, the impact of Stronach's departure from the Connie ranks will be determined solely by the Connie/Harper response.

Criticize her as a self-interested whore - to use a popular Connie phrase - and, well, predictably her stock will go up and the Harper stock will, at least, not rise. Magnanimity is a sign of a leader. Meanspirited vindictiveness looks like the mark of a very small individual.

If the Connies pull the reigns tighter, then dissident members may well decide to join Belinda, not because they want to but because they are not being welcomed.

The situation for local Connies Doyle and Hearn just got much worse.

As national caucus chairman, the Harperites will be looking to Doyle to toe the line; he will need to be more zealously anti-Liberal than ever before. He cannot vote with the government on the budget without risking being pushed from caucus.

For Hearn, one of the architects of the Unite the Right experiment, the situation is equally dark. To buck the Harperites invites sanction. He has nowhere else to go. To buck the Harperites and open the division suggests that maybe his earlier action on bringing MacKay and Harper together was a mistake.

Politically, they cannot vote against their party and expect to move forward in glory as future Connie cabinet ministers.

Politically, they cannot buck the party line and expect to get re-elected. Over 13, 000 e-mails in a three day span and countless hours of Open Line and other media scrutiny is obviously causing the pair great difficulty.

Having insisted they are voting to bring down the government, they cannot suddenly switch positions and vote for the budget without damaging their credibility. The fact that Hearn and Doyle can argue any side of anything at any time really doesn't endear them to their constituents beyond the hard-core of the local Connie team.

If Hearn suddenly switches his vote - for the third time by my count, we have yet one more example of where Hearn said something emphatically that turned out not to be true.

Politics is always an entertaining sport to watch or to play.

Today's' events prove that to a tee.

John Crosbie - some background

As I headed off to work this morning, I caught the former imperial Tory governor of Newfoundland - one John Crosbie - defending the Connie cause by attacking Liberals.

Here are a couple of observations, since Mr. Crosbie found it necessary to blame the Liberals for the whole offshore mess.
1. John Crosbie negotiated and signed the original offshore deal in 1985 complete with the clawback - by one assessment - of 97% of offshore revenues through the Equalization program. [I am merely presenting the situation as Crosbie himself would have to admit it, given that he now believes in clawbacks.]

As provincial cabinet ministers, Loyola Hearn and Norm Doyle supported 97% clawbacks, too incidentally.

2. In 1990, Crosbie savagely opposed any changes to the clawback, arguing the provincial government was biting the hand that fed it.

3. In 1993/94, then-finance minister Paul Martin improved the Newfoundland and Labrador offshore revenues by changes to the Equalization protection offered.

4. In January 2004, Prime Minister Paul Martin accepted the provincial government's proposal for changes to the offshore Accord as the basis for discussions.

5. In January 2005, Prime Minister Martin reached an agreement on behalf of the Government of Canada with Premier Danny Williams on offshore revenues.

John Crosbie might want to look at the record objectively before he starts spouting off.

He has a lot to answer for in the dock of historical judgment.

Doyle and Hearn caving?

The National Lampoon is reporting this morning that Norm Doyle and Loyola Hearn are now waivering in their commitment to the Harper cause.

Here's the link to check out the story.

Wait 'til they hear the radio spots.

I can bet though that they won't be as negative as the Connie ones.

When will these guys learn that American style Connie anger just won't play well in Canada? Already the Connies have had to abandon their spoiled child tactics from last week.

Now they are trying radio spots.

Ok.

So they have been pounding their messaging for something like six weeks now and as far as I can tell, every single national pollster is reporting that Harper's personal numbers haven't moved. Ontario is back in the Liberal camp and overall, the numbers are too close to call.

Here's a clue for the game theory dweebs Harper is relying on.

Politics is not game theory or economics.

It isn't Alice in flippin' Wonderland where a word shall mean what I want it to mean.

Winning means winning.

It is not, as the Connie "strategists" seem to think a case of merely making the other guy lose.

The result of goof-ball strategising by game theory dweebs has led to six weeks of utter political paralysis and all for nothing.

This is politics by the guys who brought you Vietnam.

Oh yeah.

Let's base our strategy on the losers.

USCGS Eagle - background

It has been nice neeing the United States Coast Guard Ship Eagle in port again. She visits here periodically although this time, there is a bit of a cloud with the accident at sea that injured four of her crew.

Nonetheless, it might be interesting to see some background on the Eagle.

Here's a link to the official profile.

The Eagle was war booty and represents rehabilitating a ship named after a Nazi thug and turning it into a proud vessel which is a fine symbol of one of the best natioanl coast guards in the world.

16 May 2005

Harper's motivation?

One of the persistent rumours floating across the country is that Stephen Harper is pushing an election out of fear that others are eyeing his seat as Leader Opp. After all isn't' this going to be his fourth or fifth kick at the election cat?

Take a gander at this little link to The Hill Times, courtesy of Bourque Newswatch.

Maybe the rumours are true.

Conservative supporters in Newfoundland play name that tune

Interesting to see a couple of Newfoundland Connies who keep blogs - namely Damian Penny and Barry Stagg - agree that voting for the federal budget and the offshore money is a case of being bought off. Or being welfare bums.

At least, they seldom use the word "explosive" or "whore" as most Connies seem to do. Maybe one day there will be a dog-whistle breakdown and these guys will run around calling everyone an explosive whore. I shudder to think what that would involve.

Back to the point, this is a complete turn-around for two individuals who last year were hammering away at the federal government to fork over cash to the province.

Here's a link to Penny's blog and here's a link to some comments by the transplanted Tory, Stagg. Read'em for yourself.

Barry Stagg is particularly adept at tossing around the anger words that seem to motivate Conservatives.

Stagg even seems to find Margaret Wente's views to be appealing:

"The Fair Deal For Newfoundland web site reveals a sorry tendency to traffic in welfarism by backing the Liberal nastiness."

That's from his own blog, "The Boswarlos Daily".

Norm Doyle: Connie talking points changed

Talk about holding two contradictory ideas in your head at the same time.

Norm Doyle told Peter Gullage of CBC Radio that if the budget passes the feds can't flow money right away to the province because of the lengthy process involved in passing federal legislation.

This contradicts the Connie talking point - up to now - that if the deal was done as separate legislation, the money could flow quickly.

Then, in another classic case of pot and kettle, Doyle accuses John Efford and others of "telling fibs".

As my daughter used to say when she first started talking: "Oh deeuh".

In the meantime, the Connies - for some bizarre reason - have been consistently avoiding the most obvious position.

"The Accord is a deal between two governments. Whether we implement the current agreement or replace it with a much better deal - the Harper Equalization changes - a Conservative government will deliver for the people of Newfoundland and Labrador.

I think they are avoiding because it simply isn't the Harper/Connie plan for the offshore deal.

Are Norm and Loyola telling lies? Nope. That assumes a level of malice I just won't say without proof. There is no proof and - contrary to what Connie partisans have been saying elsewhere - I think both Norm and Loyola are decent guys trying to do the best they can.

I think they are sticking to a line because that's all they have. They know some of the things they say aren't true, but Leader Harper just has his own ideas and his own agenda.

What a hideous place to be in for any politician, let alone the two guys who played up patriotism as a way to hammer away at federal Liberal politicians from this province.

Go look up the word petard and the associated quote about being hoist by one's own clever device.

I just keep thinking the real issue here will be how high will these two gentlemen be hoist, or worse, how big will be the hole into which they might fall at the polls.

Cry havoc! And let loose from their nylon restraining devices the moderately-sized canines of annoyance

Guess what?

The offshore revenue issue is back with a vengeance.

When this site started I could count on a big spike in hits - people visiting the site - whenever there was something controversial on a given day or if people were really hungry for some background detail.

As I started posting at the Fair Deal site and some other bloggers started linking to me, I could see more people paying a visit.

Well, they're back.

Normally weekend hits drop by more than 40% whether I post or not.

Yesterday - Day Two of the renewed Fair Deal campaign brought me more hits on Sunday than I got on Friday, normally a busy day. My hit counter looks like a saw.

Oh well.

Once more into the breech dear friends.

Hit counter inflation test

sex

stephen harper

nude

norm doyle

welfare

danny williams

neophyte

michael jackson

whore

loyola hearn

petard

fair deal for newfoundland

kevin mccann

paul martin

gomery inquiry

liberal scandal

blogging tories

john efford

rob antle

titan IVB

international fund for animal welfare

atlantic accord

iceland

bjork

britney spears

While this may appear to be a shameless attempt to see what this does to my google search results, I challenge anyone to fit those words into a paragraph that makes any sense at all.

Most of these are actual terms people have used to somehow find a google hit for this blog.

15 May 2005

A little perspective would be nice

On Day Two of the revamped Fair Deal campaign, over 7, 000 e-mails have been sent to Norm Doyle and Loyola Hearn pressing them to vote for the offshore money on Thursday - put province above party.

I just caught Loyola Hearn desperately trying to avoid dealing with that core issue.

It is everyone else's fault, says Loyola, not mine that I must put party above province.

Let's take a little time out for perspective.

A few short months ago, a motion cam before the House - from Loyola I believe - condemning the Prime Minister in strong language and pressing the government to sign a deal on the offshore.

Some Liberal MPs voted for the motion, something I don't mind telling you I thought was despicable given that the Pm was obviously trying to conclude some sort of deal. I even went so far as to e-mail one of them saying that he should resign.

Well, in hindsight, I will say that I was wrong. Those Liberal members of parliament actually took a stronger stand since they voted on a mere motion which, even though it criticized the prime minister, had little weight. It still took guts to do that.

By contrast, now when the cash is on the line, when it is meaningful and serious, it is clear that both Doyle and Hearn are putting party before province.

A few months ago those Liberal MPs could have sided with the prime minister and voted against the motion knowing full well a deal would be done and the vote would come before the House. The difference between the two positions could not be any more stark.

As a closing point, here is what Stephen Harper said in the Commons last week when he failed to get unanimous consent to split the offshore deals from the rest of the budget bill:

"The government House leader and the Chair will of course know that by what he has done he has ensured no vote on the Atlantic accord for at least a year."

Now what exactly did Mr. Harper mean by that, in light of Mr. Hearn's assurances that a Conservative government would bring the bill before the House shortly after the next federal election?

Credibility gap?

Rampant pinocchiosis?

Take your pick.

Indy backs Harper, Hearn and Doyle over province's cash

Not surprisingly, I suppose, managing editor Ryan Cleary's editorial in this week's Indy supports bringing down the federal government by defeating the budget bill - and the offshore money - because, as Ryan believes, the cash is safe.

Funny thing is, Stephen Harper said just this week that it will take more than a year to get an offshore revenue bill back before the House in some form. Am I the only person who heard that clip?

Ryan tries to link the Premier's pressure on Loyola Hearn to the fact Loyola backed Fabian Manning.

I'll just repeat a simple comment:

If the money was so safe or if Harper was potentially offering a better deal, then why exactly would Danny Williams risk ticking off a future PM by siding with the current one? That just doesn't make sense on any level.

I have a simple way of settling the whole matter, especially since Ryan Cleary puts great stock in the Harper letter:

Let's see the letter.

What does Harper actually say?

I am betting - and there is a whole $10 bill riding on this - that the letter isn't quite as unequivocal a commitment as Ryan and others would have us believe.

In the meantime, it is obvious Ryan Cleary hasn't read bill C-43, the one he criticizes. Otherwise he would notice that it is a pretty straightforward piece of legislation that gives money to seniors, children, cities and provinces.

Apparently Ryan believes that parliamentarians can only handle one topic and one bill at a time. An omnibus bill seems to overtax their brains, if you follow the Cleary logic.

Here's another simple suggestion, this time for Ryan Cleary - actually read bill C-43 and see just exactly how uncomplicated it is.

After reading it, Ryan you should be able to see how sweet it would be for people in this province to get their money and then defeat the government - if that's their wish - rather than put Harper in the PM's office and wait for the cash.

Why exactly can't we do the Fair Deal option, Ryan?

CPC attacks populist offshore website - update

Anyone who has been following the Fair Deal campaign on Loyola Hearn and Norm Doyle will see that the Connies have pulled out all the stops in an effort to blast him with their own messages.

The whole thing has caught Paul Wells' attention.

As of about 8:00 AM this morning, more than 5, 000 e-mails have gone to Hearn and Doyle encouraging them to vote for the budget and then bring down the government later. It's a sensible idea, especially since the Connies like to tell us that a separate bill could pass quickly. Well, N & L, try voting with NL.

Much more interesting though are the comments posted to Kevin McCann's blog itself. While there are a few Newfoundlanders and Labradorians, there are way more mainlanders criticising the campaign, pointing out - mostly backed up with complete nonsense - that the offshore money isn't in jeopardy, Harper is the only way to get the money, Harper proposed the deal first etc. etc.

One post from a woman named merely "Julie" advises that we should vote Conservative down here because of all the money stolen from us by "Liberal governments" over the past 50 years. Talk about someone spouting prepared talking points, Julie: the original offshore accord was a Tory deal, clawbacks and all. She pressed the lever and earned her little pellet, though. The end of her post is a link to the CPC national website.

Then there's the mainland Connie nomination-seeker who claims he supported this deal the last time. Here's a link to his own website.

As if that wasn't rich enough some guy with the pseudonym "springer" is also wading into the discussion and lambasting us all for being weak. So some guy who feels inspired by - presumably - the daily trailer-trash parade on the TV show of the same name is presuming to lecture others. Oy vey!

My personal favourite is the e-mail from Paul Brown - Loyola Hearn's aide or former aide - although Brown doesn't identify himself.

It's a lovely long-winded post as to why Hearn and Doyle shouldn't be getting e-mails. He uses the word disingenuous, yet proceeds to be the most disingenuous poster of all. (Most of the CPC posts are long; one cut and pasted Hansard!!!) After all, if Paul has to answer those e-mails his opposition to getting them is more about self interest and typers' cramp than anything else.

UPDATE: Paul finally posted back to the Fair Deal site to say he actually works now in the private sector. So let's update that lil tidbit.

My all time favourite mainlander post is from some woman named Michelle. She was succinct in her dismissal of us all. She just called us "whores".

Scan the postings, especially the mainlander ones. Lots of talk about corruption. Lots of use of the word "whore". Lots of anger.

There are some very angry people out there and they sure don't like it when you oppose them.

After Michael Harris' column on Friday, and then this, I wonder what the Open Line crowd will do as they return to the airwaves tonight?

Smell the rot of desperation

Aside from Andrew Coyne pointing out the obvious as the Connie's try desperately to inch their way into power, the surest sign that the Conservatives are willing to do anything for a vote is this release issued today from the Connie command bunker.

Here's the release with my comments and notations, as appropriate. Try to keep a straight face as you go through it. I had a hard time doing it and I like retired zipperheads. Really I do.


LABRADOR WILL HAVE RESOURCES NEEDED TO CREATE NEW JOBS AND FOSTER ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT UNDER A STEPHEN HARPER GOVERNMENT, SAYS O'CONNOR

For immediate release: Saturday, May 14, 2005


HAPPY-VALLEY GOOSE BAY -- Today, Gordon O'Connor, MP for Carleton Mississippi Mills and Official Opposition Critic for National Defence visited the Graham Letto campaign in Happy-Valley Goose Bay and made an important announcement regarding how a Conservative government led by Stephen Harper would treat several issues critical to the future economic growth and prosperity of Labrador and its communities.

O'Connor said, "The people of Labrador have told us they are tired of lip service and tokenism and the Conservative Party of Canada is listening. There is a yearning in the land for integrity, leadership and a new direction. A Conservative Government led by Stephen Harper will put decision making power back in your hands so that the people of Labrador can create new jobs, and foster economic development."

Comment: The CPC may be listening but they ain't hearing much based on the lip service Labrador voter's backsides pick up in this release.

O'Connor announced that a Conservative government led by Stephen Harper would:

- Renegotiate the revenues sharing from Voisey's Bay.

Comment: Gordo has been banging his brain housing group inside a tank without proper headgear obviously. The federal government has no revenue sharing arrangement to renegotiate. Everyone in Labrador knows this.

Either Gordo is telling a giant fib or the CPC research bureau is full of stupid people or most likely scenario: Gordo is telling us that the CPC government would be resurrecting its plan to remove nonrenewable resources from Equalization.

Kiss the offshore deal goodbye, ladies and gentlemen.

- Share in the completion of the Trans-Labrador Highway.

Comment: It's been years coming and the federal government has already committed to this. See Andrew Coyne for a further discussion of how the CPC will be all the things the Liberals are when it comes to spending without being Liberals. Why buy a fake Liberal when the real one is already there?

- Help develop the Lower Churchill Falls as a power source.

Comment: The PM already made that commitment this time last year and repeated it several times. The only hang up has been that the Williams government was temporarily sidetracked with other issues.

- Ratify the Inuit land claims agreement.

Comment: Thanks for nothing Gordo. The deal is already signed. All someone needs to do is put it through the House. Oh. But wait. The Labrador Inuit would have to wait at least a year - just like Harper said about the offshore - in order to see their land claim finally settled. The reason? Stephen Harper needs to be Prime Minister before anything else happens.

- Ensure the employment at CFB Goose Bay does not decline. Comment: How? No answer. This sounds like both Conservative lips are servicing fully.

- Encourage increased flying training operations at CFB Goose Bay. Comment: We can "encourage" 'til the cows come home. The allies don't need to train at Goose, so the Connie promise is meaningless.

- Establish a Regular Force rapid reaction army battalion at CFB Goose Bay. Comment: Gordo the retired tank driver didn't promise to base a tank regiment in Goose Bay. (He still wants to get invited to armoured corps functions, after all.)

So instead he promises an infantry battalion, and a rapid-reaction one at that.

Small problem for Gordo. Where is the battalion going to come from? Valcartier? Gagetown? Petawawa? Winnipeg? Edmonton?

If they don't come up with some cockamamie idea of doubling the size of the army and making a whole new battalion (Hint for Gordo - DND has recruiting problems), I'll venture the battalion will be relocated from the one place where the Connies don't have to worry about losing votes by shifting millions of dollars and hundreds of jobs from a base. I am talking Valcartier.

The Vandoos hit Goose Bay.

Newfoundland and Labrador nationalists start sweating.

Film at 11.

Oh. There's another small problem. The army doesn't have plans for a rapid-reaction battalion, whatever that is supposed to be. The new formation being created as an adjunct to Joint Task Force 2 needs to be close to the main guys, so I am guessing they will be in Petawawa.

- Establish an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Squadron at CFB Goose Bay. Comment: Five big bucks says this already on the drawing board. UAVs were already trialed at Goose. A small presence is needed to give support to the UAVs doing coastal patrols. A squadron sounds about right.

-30-

As a public relations professional, I just love news releases that tell people they are tired of bulls**** and then spew cow manure instead.

Gord O'Connor.

Loaded the charge.

Forgot the sabot round.

Ask a tank guy what happens when the commander yells "Fire!" in that case.

Big noise.

Bright flash.

F*** all else.

14 May 2005

Fair Deal website targets Hearn and Doyle

The Fair Deal for Newfoundland website has targeted Norm Doyle and Loyola Hearn in its reinvigorated efforts to secure the offshore revenue deal for Newfoundland and Labrador.

"Members of Parliament Loyola Hearn and Norman Doyle have a clear choice: put their party first — or put their province first. By voting against the federal budget, they put all of our efforts at risk by bringing down the government and breaking the Atlantic Accord. By voting for the federal budget they make the deal a reality, but can still move to take power at a later time. This choice is clear: Doyle and Hearn need to put their province above party politics."

Maybe they just need to follow the example set by Sir Robert Bond, one of the greatest prime minister in our history.

He routinely put people and principle before party.

Top Secret Argentia site - the facts

Friday's Telegram had an editorial which screamed for some clarification.

It spoke of a top secret building at the base, hinting that this might be the place a former Marine Corps soldier said was used to store nuclear weapons. The editorial made it sound like people didn't know what was going on there.

Piffle. That building was known as the "T" Building and is located at the south side of the base. It housed the data processing centre for a section of the Sound Underwater Surveillance System or SOSUS. This was a collection of hydrophones strung across the seabed that listened for Soviet submarines. To the best of my knowledge the T Building is not the building the former Marine is talking about.

In 1963, data from the Argentia SOSUS station was used to help pinpoint the location of a United States Navy submarine that had disappeared after leaving Spain on its way home.

The T Building was a highly sensitive facility since SOSUS was part of the front line defence against Soviet ballistic missile submarines. Not much of a surprise therefore that it was highly guarded and the Americans looked suspiciously on anyone who inquired about it. Does anyone remember Stephen Ratkai? Maybe that's a name for the "Newfoundland and Espionage" posting.

The top secret research facility everyone has been talking about was the SOSUS station - top secret underwater acoustic research.

Were nuclear weapons present at Argentia?

Yes.

During the Cuban Missile Crisis, complete nuclear weapons were deployed to Argentia. This is one of the major facts that led the federal government to negotiate an agreement with the United States specifically governing American nuclear weapons deployments to Argentia.

At other times, nuclear weapons components were there. That is, the base housed everything except the cores of fissionable material that would produce the atomic explosion of the thing worked properly.

There has been no report of any unusual radiation levels at Argentia. This undermines the story that the site housed large numbers of weapons, that these weapons were improperly stored and that there is a major environmental catastrophe at Argentia being covered up by the US government.

Of all the buildings at Argentia, the T Building was retained in American control after Argentia was closed out. It was refurbished and two large white radar domes were mounted on top as part of the US Air Forces range instrumentation system for the Cape Canaveral launch facility. The T Building continues to be used today, including during the recent Titan 4B launch.

Now you know the facts.

Make up your own mind.

13 May 2005

Anonymous posts and the challenge of integrity

As some of you will notice, I have removed the public comments section from this blog.

When I started the Bond Papers in January 2005, I set it up so that people could make comments in the hope that there could be an informed and frank exchange of views on some of the things posted here. The idea of this blog is to be provocative and to ground the comments as much as possible in fact.

The Papers didn't attract much comment in public although I do get regular e-mails from people seeking additional information or challenging some of my comments. Fair enough. The result has been very useful for me and hopefully led to a greater understand of the point I was trying to make. Certainly some of my correspondents clarified the other perspectives on issues and helped me to appreciate those points of view more than I may have.

The odd comment that did appear during the offshore fracas was invariable anonymous and at times merely focused on trivial side issues rather than substantive ones.

In the past couple of days yet another anonymous poster using the name "Biddy" has taken to filling up the comments page with little more than partisan talking points. Curiously, the posts appear at the times when a parliamentary IP address is accessing the blog. I am drawing a logical conclusion that "Biddy" is a CPC staffer since I happen to know the other member of parliament staffer who checks my blog from time to time. He doesn't post things here.

I have no problem with a well-constructed partisan argument. What I do find offensive is that the individual chooses to hide behind some pseudonym. This approach betrays a fundamental lack of respect for me and the other readers of this blog such that I refuse to tolerate it. Were that not enough, since the individual lacks any obvious sense of humour there really isn't much point is hosting the comments anyway.

For the time being, I will withdraw the comments section and save bandwidth as a result. If people using it can't display some integrity or display some common courtesy by properly identifying themselves, then I do not feel obliged to give them a platform.

Anyone who wants to berate me or engaged me in further discussion can feel free to send me an e-mail.

Nutty Norm and Michael Harris

Norm Doyle has snapped completely under the strain of people wanting him to put province first, while Norm himself is putting his party before all.

In an interview with VOCM, Norm insisted that had the government supported a motion to split the offshore money from the budget bill, the province would have had its money right away.

Norm is now confirmed as being willing to say anything at all in a desperate bid to prop up his position.

Even if the bill got through the House before Norm and his fellow Conservatives defeated the government, the province can't get a nickel until the bill passes the Senate and gets Royal Assent.

Ok. I just thought about it again.

Maybe Norm isn't nuts after all.

Maybe what Norm is saying is that if we can get the bill out of Harper's clutches and into the Liberal-dominated Senate it will pass irrespective of who wins the next federal election.

Maybe what Norm and the Premier are telling us is that if Norm Doyle's party brings down the government our offshore money is history. But if we could possibly get it past Harper then maybe it would be safe - but only because Liberals are steadfastly behind the deal.

Norm Doyle: pinocchiosis-induced insanity or disloyal to his leader? Geez. This is getting harder to read with every passing moment. What will Norm say next?

Stay tuned.

Meanwhile, Michael Harris has decided to kick the crap out of Danny Williams.

Here's a link to his column in the Sun chain.

It contains such comments as:

"First of all Danny, you are the premier of Newfoundland, not Napoleon. There are limits to a local potentate's powers, even one as rich as you are personally. Last time I looked, the province's MPs took their marching orders from Martin and Harper, not you."

or this one:

"He [Williams] even had the cheek to describe his ugly fiat to all provincial MPs as non-partisan. What could be more partisan than supporting a government and party that have made your corner of the world more prosperous while corrupting the highest public institutions in the land?" [Emphasis added.]

Mike, I got a question for you. Did you ever write screeds for John Crosbie? I do know you wrote a fawning book about the former federal governor of the former poorest province.

Maybe Mike has been inhaling Charlie Lynch columns by the snoutful.

But man, Mike's anti-Danny invective in this column will make people appreciate Margaret Wente for her frankness.

Friday catch up

Since it is Friday and nothing truly exciting is happening - watching Norm and Loyola melt doesn't count - I thought I'd give a quickie update on a couple of promised posts.

First, on the Telelink poll, I have received nil response from NTV save for an e-mail that the request had been passed up to the proper authorities.

For my own part, I need to call Telelink directly and see what I can find.

Second, I will post on game theory over the weekend. Part of that will involve my digging into a paper I wrote about 16 years ago. As well, I have had a couple of useful chats with a friend of mine who is into game theory - poor sod. He has raised some points that I really should consider before dismissing the whole thing as economics.

Other than that I can't recall any promised follow up posts. Perhaps faithful readers would be good enough to jog my memory on stuff that isn't stale and outdated by now.

12 May 2005

Norm Doyle is nuts

Norm Doyle just told Mary-Lou Findlay that the only way he'll vote for the budget bill (C-43) is if the Prime Minister renegs on his commitment to pass the offshore money bill.

Is there a psychiatrist in the House? Norm is obviously cracking under the strain.

Either Norm is absolutely crackers or he has no regard whatsoever for the intelligence of his electorate.

As I am listening to Norm he just spouted another falsehood claiming that Danny Williams wanted to see the offshore money in a separate bill from C-43.

Wow, Norm. The pinocchiosis virus is obviously now in full bloom. Danny said as recently as yesterday what he has said all along: pass the bill with offshore money in it. Get it done. A vote against the offshore money - i.e. the budget - is a not in the best interests of the province.

As for the theme of "unauthorized spending" that the Norm and Loyola show are spreading, every deal like the offshore one is technically unauthorized until the House of Commons gives legislative approval.

Does anyone smell an "out" here? A Harper government refuses to honour any of the provincial deals because they are "unauthorized" and set a bad precedent and the country can't afford them. Then on the offshore, Harper just goes back to his plan to change the Equalization formula.

If Norm gets elected, we are gonna be supporting some extra staff to help move his nose around. Pinocchiosis is a modern scourge among some politicians far more debilitating than any other condition.

Maybe Brian Mulroney could host a telethon.

Hearn and Doyle keep on squirming

Aside from the sudden appearance of anonymous postings to the comments section of my blog from someone spouting Conservative talking points, I was almost floored to see Norm Doyle on NTV this evening and read Loyola's comments in the Telly. Things must be getting hot for the Reformatories if they are sending what looks to me like their paid staff onto blogs in order to spread what is really nothing more than piffle.

On NTV, Norm kept repeating a call for Liberals to promise the offshore money is safe is the Liberals are re-elected. He seemed to lose focus at one point and just kept rambling on and on.

Let me put it this way: Liberals will be voting for the deal their prime minister signed whether the thing is in bill C-43, a stand alone bill or delivered baked in a pizza and written in mandarin Chinese.

The Liberal commitment on this point is clear. Except for desperate Connie partisans flailing around for excuses, the main issue is what the two Conservative members of parliament will do when the real vote comes on the offshore money.

Remember that the vote the Liberals sided with before was just a hollow partisan gesture by Doyle, Hearn and a few others. They picked province over party and PM and they never suffered a bit.

This time it matters, Norm and Loyola. That's why everyone expects you to stand up and state what you plan to do rather than weasel around as you have been doing.

So which way are you going to vote, Norm: Party or Province?

Meanwhile over in the Hearn bunker deep in the heart of Renews (not in the riding he nominally represents), the wannabe fish minister is spreading some nonsense of his own.

He is trying to pretend that the Connies were going to vote for the budget but can't do it now because of all the new spending. For further detail see the Telly story in today's edition on page A4.

Here are the facts - something Loyola has a historical problem with irrespective of the subject -

1. The Conservative Party has never indicated it would vote for the government's budget. Their initial objection was because of the bill's Kyoto provisions. They were removed and so then the Connies decided to object to the offshore money being included in what they called a "complex" piece of legislation.

Mr. Hearn's line of argument is nothing more than an effort to divert attention from the truth.

2. The reason Messrs Doyle and Hearn are nervous is because their party is soft on the offshore deal.

- Their leader rejected the Williams proposal in his written reply to the Premier almost a year ago. Harper also promised to sell the federal Hibernia shares on the open market " for the benefit of all Canadians".

- No one has seen this recent letter from Harper so we don't know what it says. Apparently, the Premier is concerned about it to the point where he is willing to start again from the beginning to negotiate with a Harper government. So much for a done deal.

- Danny Williams has also said he would welcome re-opening the deal to make it better.

- Flip over to Andrew Coyne's website and you'll see the Connie view of the offshore deals reflected in some of the comments on the site from Coyne readers.

3. Danny Williams now considers voting against the offshore money to be "not in the best interests of the province."

A few short months ago, Loyola was praising Danny. Today's Telly has the premier making a stark, negative comment on Hearn's intentions. All is not well in the Connie camp.

To switch back to my own interpretation, I'll toss this on the table. Hearn is going to have a hard time getting workers in the next federal election. It was bad enough that traditional Tory supporters abandoned him to work for Norm Doyle last time.

The Osborne machine deserted him because of some serious disagreements on policy - like the death penalty and Hearn's role in the shotgun wedding with the Reformers.

Added to all that will be Hearn's turning his back on Newfoundland and Labrador. How can any provincial Tory work for Doyle or Hearn in this instance when they plan to put Stephen Harper ahead of their province's interests?

Loyola remembers very well that he only won St. John's South Mount Pearl by a mere 4.5% last time over political newcomer Siobhan Coady. Slightly less than 40% of the electorate supported the Renews-based Hearn. Coady polled 35% and the New Democrats' Peg Norman polled 24%.

Loyola ducked every possible opportunity to debate his opponents and was decidedly miserable and ungracious in his victory. That didn't win him any new friends.

Peg may not run again and in a stark contest between the Connies candidate Hearn, backed by the likes of Stockwell "Culture of Life" Day and Peter MacKay, DDS, I would lay odds on NDP supporters holding their noses and voting Liberal just to keep the Reformatories from taking power.

Add to that the spectre of a country run by a majority federal party with no or almost no support in one of the country's most populous provinces.

Gomery and the $100 million pilfered by what most Canadians consider a bunch of bad apples will rapidly drift off the minds of most Canadians when they start to consider which party would make the best government for the country.

Coyne's readers comment on the Premier

Grab that mouse and click on over to Andrew Coyne's blog.

Note especially the comments posted thus far. I like the last one from some guy who wants to give the premier a "talking to" for daring suggest that all members of parliament from this province should support bill C-43.

Norm and Loyola: you have your orders! (updated)

Norm Doyle and Loyola Hearn aren't on the greatest terms with Danny Williams anyway but it is interesting to see the premier's comments, at least as attributed to him by VOCM.

"It's a vote that may be the federal Conservatives' best hope of bringing down the Paul Martin Liberals, but Premier Danny Williams wants this province's MP's, be they Liberal or Tory, to vote with the government. MP's will vote on the federal budget next Thursday. Williams says a vote against it will be a conscious decision to vote against the Atlantic Accord and he'd prefer to see the Accord passed as soon as possible."

Expect the calls to Open Line from the two boys in Ottawa to become increasingly shrill in their denunciation of the Liberals for putting the offshore money in the budget bill in the first place.

Politics is about hard choices, Loyola.

Just think of it like you did in 1985 when you voted in favour of the clawbacks.

UPDATE: CBC Radio's version of this story has a slightly different take on it. The Premier is not worried about losing the offshore money, in part because of an unsolicited letter from Stephen Harper that pledges "to follow through on the accord", as CBC puts it.

Let's see the actual letter, please.

Wade Locke was quoted in a CBC TV piece last night saying that since the NDP and Conservatives supported the deal all along, there really wasn't a problem. Maybe he misspoke. The Conservatives initially did not support the Williams proposal.

As for the current guarantee, then, I find this quote a little curious:

{"I can say categorically, as premier of this province, that if the Conservatives or NDP form the next government, then I'm prepared to go through the exactly the same process that I went through the last time," Williams says.}

Why would the premier need to go back through the same negotiating process again if the current deal is already assured?

As for Norm Doyle, here's what CBC attributes to him:

{Norm Doyle, the MP for St. John's North, said he had considered voting for the budget because of the accord provisions.

However, he said a separate bill should be introduced.

"We could put it through immediately," Doyle said Thursday.}

Norm Doyle knows this just is not true; not even close to being factual and accurate.

A separate bill would have to be introduced from scratch thereby resetting the process to the beginning. It would take as long or longer to get a separate bill through as it would for people to vote for the current budget bill. Norm knows this. Loyola knows it too. They know their position just isn't true.

What they are presenting is a media line that avoids having to deal with the fundamental fact:

Their leader wants to bring down the government today - before any approval could be given to this province's new offshore revenue. It doesn't matter whether the offshore money was a separate bill or in C-43 as it is now. It will die one way or another if Doyle's Conservatives and the Bloc partner up to defeat the government.

Following the logical implication of the premier's comments, he will likely have to start from scratch re-negotiating a deal with Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

After a good night's sleep

It helps to let things die down a bit before making any big decisions.

Here are a few links to ponder as you sip your morning coffee.

Paul Wells has done the invaluable service to thinking Canadians of providing the text to the Conservative so-called non-confidence motion. It's pretty clear that it is just an instruction to a committee to reconsider something.

Put that in the context of the continued nonsense on Wednesday over "non-confidence" motions, as reported by the Globe.

Then have a gander at the poll results compiled by SES Research for the Canadian Parliamentary Affairs Channel. SES did the CPAC nightly polling during the last federal election and was deadly for its accuracy.

Note especially the high number of respondents who want to wait until after Gomery for an election.

Then, just for curiosity sake, flip over to this piece from last week about Stephen Harper's love of game theory and the fact that he now has two of the country's leading game theory proponents (more of the U Calgary Mafia) on his payroll. This single fact explains much of Harper's ongoing strategic problems, but I'll develop that in another post.

I don't want to burst any Conservative bubbles here but game theory has been around for a while. It was tremendously popular in the 1950s and 1960s among American academics many of whom wound up helping Robert Strange MacNamara run the war in Vietnam. You can see perhaps where I might wind up going in my discussion of game theory and crap strategy.

Mapping scenarios is one thing and running simulations is all fine and good. Here's a little reality check: game theory is not exactly the most precise of sciences. In fact, the political scientist/ historian in me wants to scream that game theory is to the practice of policy making as Intelligent Design is to science. Or maybe astrology to psychology.

Game Theory has a number of fundamental flaws one of which is the tendency to assume rationality, or more correctly, to assume that people behave according to the game parameters and the game-related definition of reality. Like economics, it is built around assumptions and that, as my faithful readers well know, is the second most abysmal science of all. I am still hunting for the first.

Remember the joke?

[Hold up one hand.]

"First, we assume a can opener."

If you can't go back to here, and scroll down to the post entitled "Morning smile - here's the real can opener joke".

Here's one link I came across from 2002 on the application of game theory to the current Iraq conflict and the broader revival of Thomas Schelling's The strategy of conflict. If you want to buy the book, try the local Chapters. Better still get it from a library. Here's the online info and it is relatively cheap.

While it is all neatly laid out, the whole approach seems to be a peculiarly American approach to strategy that rests in part on the exclusion of anything which cannot be quantified. It is also an approach with very limited successes, as I will discuss in that other post to come right next to the discussion of Trevor Dupuy.

If you want a well-presented critique of the application of "rational actor" models to life, try reading Voltaire's bastards by His Excellency John Ralston Saul.

Armed with all those threads, you can now go off and weave some kind of afghan to ward off the chill of the pending election.

Personally, I am heading to Tim's for another large double-double. This one game theory thing may now give me enough to figure out the peculiar world of Harper's Conservatives.

Harper for PM!

Stephen Harper is proving or is intent on proving that the Official Opposition in concert with the Bloc Quebecois controls the House of Commons.

In keeping with parliamentary tradition, there is no reason to hold an election in a case where a minority government loses a vote of confidence.

Soooo, if the government loses the budget vote, Paul Martin should take a walk to Rideau Hall some day soon and before he tenders his resignation, offer the GG the advice that she should contact Mr. Harper to ask him to form a government.

How can he legitimately refuse having proven day in and day out that he controls the House?

I bet Harper's game theory dweebs never factored that one into their calculations.

Oh yeah, notice the savage rhetoric Harper is using. I just point it out since this is the guy who wants to be your leader.

Does Stephen Harper look and act like a prime minister?

Who skipped the vote on crab? (Updated)

Did anyone else notice the Tories missing from the vote on the government's plan - the only vote that will come before the House on it?

Well, aside from the speaker and John Ottenheimer - absent due to illness - there were at least four missing from the government benches. NEW: After an e-mail from a reliable, non-partisan source who was in the House, I made some big errors in my quickie assessment. So I went back and double checked against Hansard. Here are the three names I came up with:

Missing :

Kathy Goudie
John Hickey
Dave Denine

I am curious to know where these three members were.

Even putting that aside, the funniest thing yesterday was Harvey the Imaginary Speaker declaring the motion "lost" as opposed to defeated.

It is customary to say something as simple as "The nays have it". Perhaps when you go to the CPA conference, Harv, you can take a course in "Mr. Speaker 101".

[reposted at 1900 hrs NDT with new information correcting previous comments]

11 May 2005

Conservatives are posturing? Say it ain't so

The National Lampoon is reporting today that the Opposition Conservatives are considering bringing in an adjournment motion to shut down the Commons before the budget can be brought to a vote.

There's an interesting idea. A group of people who claim to have no confidence in the government and who have been threatening an election would actually avoid the ultimate parliamentary non-confidence vote and, as the Lampoon notes, try to get the prime minister to call an election.

We should hope this is posturing.

Shutting down the Commons without a budget vote would leave the federal government in the financial slings.

Pushing through an adjournment motion would also show the Conservatives to be manoeuvering for political optics since voting down the budget would inevitably have them vote against money for seniors, health care, towns and cities, and of course, the offshore agreements with the eastern-most provinces.

Shutting the House before the budget vote also puts Loyola Hearn and Norm Doyle in yet another political jam. They have a hard-enough choice deciding whether to vote for the budget and their province and alienate their leader's aspirations or vote for their political buddies in the Conservatives and the Bloc and against their province's financial interests. Having argued for so long about the offshore money, these guys will have to flip back after flopping over on this matter repeatedly.

Sure, they'll blame Liberals for everything but hey, their politically convenient spin doesn't erase their actions. Where will they stand? With their party or with their province? I can see the political ads now pointing out the hypocrisy of two guys who said others should vote with their province but who then turned around and voted against their province when they had the choice.

It sure won't erase concerns that a Harper government will wipe out the whole set of financial agreements on all those matters currently in Bill C-43. (By the way, Loyola, it is not a complex bill as you well know. It is only complex for you because your leader and party want to do something that isn't in your best political interests. Like I said before, I'd never wish that dilemma on anyone...except maybe Hearn.)

Harvey Hodder: Best before date expired (updated)

CBC Radio woke me up this morning to word that Opposition Leader Roger Grimes is writing the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association to complain about Harvey Hodder. Here's a link to the web story.

If nothing else, this will embarrass the hell out of Harvey, who plans to attend the next CPA conference this summer. After all, Newfoundland was one of the charter members of what used to be the Empire Parliamentary Association when it was formed in 1911.

It is important to note, however, that the CPA has absolutely no authority to discipline or censure parliamentarians. This move by Grimes is designed solely to embarrass Hodder.

I long ago lost any vestiges of sympathy for Hodder who has demonstrated bias and incompetence in equal measures over the past six weeks. He is rapidly becoming a joke and to make things worse his behaviour is bringing the legislature itself into a state of dysfunction and disrepute.

Ed Byrne was quoted in the CBC Radio story complaining about the endless points of order from the Opposition. Surprise, surprise, Ed. The Opposition is using whatever tactics it can in order to frustrate Hodder and raw attention to his evident shortcomings. Hodder, for his part, takes forever to make a ruling on even a straightforward point. Overload him with work and the poor guy may just crack from the strain.

But more to the point, the increase in points of order on the Speaker's rulings might be a clue that Hodder is causing problems. Parliamentarians seldom complain about the Speaker. They are even less likely to question a Speaker like Hodder, who was popularly appointed. However, if Hodder isn't working out, then it is only reasonable to expect more and more complaints. The points of order cannot be simply dismissed as a case of whining or being a nuisance.

Personally, I'd go a step farther than Grimes has done. If I was in the Opposition, I'd use my next Opposition Day to debate a motion of non-confidence in the speaker. Even though the government will ultimately defend Hodder and defeat the motion, a three hour litany of his incompetence may well be enough to push him out the door. At the very least it will emphatically make the point that Hodder needs to take some corrective action on his own performance.

Does this happen very often in legislatures? Not really, but then again it is rare for a Speaker to demonstrate persistent disregard for the rules of the House or for bias. Here's a link to one speech from the Saskatchewan legislature from 1992.

Maybe the Opposition here needs to bring the matter into the House in a more direct manner.

Loyola Hearn: Pinocchiosis case zero

Alright, I take the words I use very seriously.

But when I hear Loyola Hearn on CBC Radio spouting nonsense about how a stand-alone offshore revenue bill would pass the House in a second while the current bill will take forever because it is "complicated", then I know we have found case zero in the spread of pinochiosis.

He is telling fibs, untruths, spreading falsehoods deliberately to bolster his political cause. He spews them faster and in greater numbers than any politician I have ever known.

Loyola knows full well that what he is saying is simply not true according to the processes of the House. A stand alone bill will take just as long if not longer than Bill C-43.

Then there's another one he just spit out about supposed problems finding Liberal candidates.

His Connies just closed calls for nominations with not even a single person coming forward.

Hearn's problem with Bill C-43 is that his leader and Peter Kent, their newest candidate oppose the offshore deals.

Hearn knows the money is doomed if Harper becomes prime minister, yet in the meantime, Loyola will say anything to advance his personal interests.

It is long past time for someone to rid us all of this corrupt member. His desire for power outstrips his commitment to integrity in relationships with his constituents.

10 May 2005

Harper: Fixed election fixes nothing

Canadian Press is reporting today the federal Conservative are planning to offer Canadians several changes to federal policy as a way of demonstrating that they will take action to combat what they see as corruption in government.

Nice idea.

Here is one of the ideas, along with some comment:

- A fixed election date so the government can't manipulate public opinion by increasing spending before it decides on an election date.

Comment: Fixed election dates don't affect the possibility a government will ramp up the warm and fuzzy spending to win votes. A fixed election merely gives you fixed election dates. If it is like the recent changes in Newfoundland and Labrador, it doesn't even offer you that. The very first clause of the bill supposedly bringing in fixed dates for elections reserved the right of the Lieutenant Governor in Council to call an election at any time for any purpose.

The other Connie changes, like letting the Auditor General look into federal foundations, are good ideas but they are really just housekeeping.

Let's see if something more substantive comes out of the Harper campaign once it finally gets around to talking about something other than Gomery.

Argentia and Nuclear Weapons - Background

CBC Radio's story today  - updated link - on the possibility a US serviceman may have been exposed to nuclear radiation at Argentia raises the issue of American nuclear weapons and Newfoundland and Labrador.

While the idea of nuclear weapons at Argentia would have been controversial a decade or more ago, there is enough research to conclude that nuclear weapons were present there for most of the Cold War although the presence of fissionable materials would most likely have been of very limited duration.

Mk 7, Lulu and Betty depth bombs, based on the original atomic weapons designs were introduced to the US navy in the 1950s and remained in service into the late 1960s and early 1970s. It is reasonable to assume that nuclear weapons components for these systems were either temporarily stored at Argentia or transitted through there on various American naval vessels and aircraft.

Components include the bomb casing, the firing and ranging systems and the high-explosive charge used to trigger a fission explosion. Fissionable material (the core) was legally in the hands of the US Atomic Energy Commission unless specifically released to the military. That normally happened in North America for frontline deterrent units.

At Argentia, fissionable material was deployed during the Cuban Missile Crisis and for a short period afterward, as far as I have been able to determine. This was not routine and certainly would not have involved large numbers of cores. Long term storage would have produced a detectable radiation signature and to the best of my knowledge there has never been such a signature detected at or near Argentia.

Here's the single most detailed account published recently. Here's another commentary that makes reference to the same book.

In short:

1. The US military routinely moved nuclear weapons around its various bases and stored them at many overseas bases throughout the Cold War.

2. These weapons often did not contain the nuclear cores needed to make them true nuclear weapons. What they did consist of was the casing, the high explosive detonating device and any electronics that go with the weapon.

3. The Canadian and American governments agreed on the deployment of nuclear weapons to Canada on many occasions and in the post-Cuban Missile Crisis period, the federal government understood and approved what was occurring. Nuclear weapons and their nuclear cores were stored on Canadian soil with the full knowledge of the Canadian government from time to time. There was a specific agreement for Argentia signed in 1968.

4. There have never been any tests of biological, chemical or radiological weapons at Argentia or anywhere else in Newfoundland and Labrador.

5. Project SHAD was a series of tests, some of which were conducted at Argentia, in which materials were released to study the distribution of radioactive particles and biological agents in the atmosphere. The tests also served to evaluate decontaminating procedures. No radioactive particles were used; rather the tests involved inert agents that simulated the behavior in the air of radioactive and biological particles.

A specific project summary for the COPPER HEAD test can be found here.