Harper and Williams and message control: the second parts

The second part of Canadian Press’ expose.

And for good measure, the second part of the 2006 BP series on the local version of the same idea.

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Harper and Williams share love of total message control

Steve has Message Event Proposals.

Danny just controls everything.

The first in a series by Canadian Press (h/t @stphnmaher) and a three-parter (here’s the first one) from your humble e-scribbler, circa 2006.

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Weekly Top Traffic Drivers: May 31 – June 4

1. Lower Churchill decision up in the air, indefinitely
2. The World the Old Man Lives In
3. Lower Churchill cost estimates skyrocket
4. Lower Churchill costs: now up to $14 billion and counting
5. Rumpole and the Phantom Judges
6. Like we told you:  “Lower Churchill decision…”
7. May Stat Porn
8. How not to do social media
9. The pictures tell another oil spill story
10. Physician heal thyself:  Dunderdale edition

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Famous Comments by Telegram editors

1892:  ‘I’m certainly not buying any argument the city will burn to the ground.”

1894:  ‘I’m certainly not buying any argument that the country is bankrupt.”

January 1934:  “I’m certainly not buying any argument that the country is bankrupt.”

1969:  “I am certainly not buying any argument that this is a bad deal with Hydro-Quebec.”

1988:  “I am certainly not buying any argument that this cucumber factory will be a big waste of money.”

2009:  “I’m certainly not buying any argument that government spending is unsustainable.”

2010:  “I am certainly not buying any argument that the Premier should tell us he is having heart surgery.”

2010:  “I’m certainly not buying an argument that the provincial government expropriated the mill, even by mistake.”

2010:  “I’m certainly not buying any argument that NL simply botched its case.”

Plus ca change, as they say.

The tradition continues (read the comments section).

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Oil’s down, budget pucker factor up …again

When you project an average price of oil at US$83 and forecast a billion dollar budget shortfall on that basis, having oil at US$71-ish must make the old sphincter twitch a notch tighter than it used to be.

Heaven only knows what other economic news does.

Kinda makes all that effort spent on poll goosing seem…well…a tad bit…silly.

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Physician heal thyself: Dunderdale version

Natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale displaying her now-usual level of unjustified arrogance:

I advise the Leader of the Opposition to pipe down now and learn a few things. Hold your tongue and open up your ears and learn something so you can stop making a fool of yourself.

She was trying to explain something she clearly didn’t understand, namely open access tariffs for jurisdictions that sell electricity into the United States.

One thing Kath didn’t notice was a crucial part of the provincial government’s argument in front of the Quebec energy regulator. You see, the provincial government’s energy corporation argued that Hydro-Quebec Transmission didn’t follow the rules. 

And that was the sum total of their argument.

They said it.

As the Regie reported and as NALCOR’s lawyers dutifully translated the French:

[386]…NLH did not call any experts to testify on these technical questions or to contradict witness Deguire.

That’s right.  They did not present a single piece of evidence to support their claim or to refute HQT's witnesses.

Now you have to bear in mind that NALCOR’s argument on this was that HQT had failed to do a complete assessment of the five routes along which they theoretically wanted to ship power and five loads they wanted to ship using a direct current intertie as required by the open access transmission rules.  [paragraph 376]

At the last minute, just as NALCOR’s time to option a route was about to expire, they accused HQT of not doing a complete review because direct current intertie was just a NALCOR preference. [paragraph 379] HQT demonstrated pretty easily with documents signed by NALCOR officials that DC was more than just a preference and that it also made a huge amount of technical sense.

[388] NLH did not any tender [tender any?] technical evidence to contradict witness Deguire. In reply, it restricted itself to arguing that it was not required to submit evidence to establish that
the impact study was incomplete and that it sufficed to refer to the wording of section 19.3 of the OATT for a finding that the study did not contain the essential elements required by that regulatory provision.

Just saying it was supposedly good enough such that no evidence was required.

And what about when HQT was able to show that NALCOR’s argument on some points – like say the issue of DC intertie  - was more than a preference?  Well, that apparently really doesn’t require much comment either.  The foolishness of it is readily apparent.

At this point, sensible people are likely wondering not only why NALCOR was pursuing all this but who allowed the lawyers to make such a weak-assed presentation.

Well, that would be either the folks at NALCOR or folks like Kath and the Old Man or both.

Maybe the next time Kathy gets some idea about keeping mouth shut and learning something, she might want to take her own advice.

Quite frankly, that display of breathtaking incompetence in the Regie hearings has succeeded only in making the people of this province out to be complete idiots, not just mere fools.

And she’s ultimately responsible for it.

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The pictures tell another #oilspill story

Natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale, as quoted in a recent Telegram editorial:

Mr. Speaker, in terms of an oil spill offshore, the greatest vulnerability will exist to the bird population.   Mr. Speaker, based on 40 to 50 years of wind study, it is shown that oil, because of the wave action and the coldness of the sea, Mr. Speaker, breaks up and disperses. ... Mr. Speaker, we had an oil spill in 2004 on the Terra Nova. Mr. Speaker, that oil dispersed, broke up, and went away. Ocean floor studies have been done, Mr. Speaker, there is no evidence of oil from that oil spill on the floor around our Terra Nova project.

From the same editorial, a quote attributed to a Chevron report on drilling in the Orphan Basin:

The report notes a spill could cause 'relatively few' to a 'very large' number of seabird deaths. But overall, it concludes a spill 'will not result in any significant residual impacts' on animals.

And when you’ve digested that, take a look at some pictures from the Gulf of Mexico.

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Very lucky indeed

The Old Man Hisself, in the House of Assembly this week, speaking of the $14.7 billion Lower Churchill project, arguably one of the most expensive hydro megaprojects on the drawing boards of North America today:

…from an economic perspective we are in a situation where we have enough information to really sit down and talk with any industrial developer at any point in time.

Yes, NALCOR is ready to talk about building this project any time at all, just as they have before now.

And just for comparison sake, from last fall, energy analyst Tom Adams has a different take:

Just as natural gas from the Mackenzie delta is now recognized as uneconomic in light of foreseeable market conditions, the factors that have driven down power prices in Northeastern North America make the economics of Lower Churchill development unviable for the foreseeable future. Newfoundlanders are lucky that Nalcor, their Crown energy company, is not out in the market the trying to sell high cost power right now. [Emphasis added.]

Yes, the people of this province are lucky indeed to have people looking after the Lower Churchill who’d be smart enough not to try and flog a project estimated at upwards of $15 billion in a depressed energy market.

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Enviro minister trades with the enemy

Sometimes it’s hard to know which is funnier:  environment minister Charlene Johnson’s repeated attempts to be arrogant and condescending even when she is completely shagging up or her admission that her answer to the mounds of used tires in the province collected under a recycling program is exactly the same answer used by her Liberal predecessor.

I can get the exact details for him on the cost for shipping to Quebec. Certainly, under their failed attempts in the past that is where the tires went as well, so I imagine it would be somewhere in line when you had to ship them to Quebec as well. Mr. Speaker, shipping tires to Quebec is certainly, we know, the cheapest option for the tires.

Yes, folks, the tires are being shipped to Quebec.

Charlene Johnson is trading with the enemy.

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Williams party support drops nine points

Support for the Danny Williams Conservative party dropped nine points in three months according to the latest poll results from the provincial government’s pollster.

Corporate Research Associate’s quarterly poll showed that 58% of respondents indicated they would vote for the provincial Conservatives party if an election were held tomorrow.  That’s down from 67% in February.

The numbers are likely grossly inaccurate even with the correction presented here. The orange line shows the actual percentage of eligible voters who voted Progressive Conservative in the last provincial general election in October 2007. The blue line is CRA’s number, adjusted to remove their artificial inflation of Tory support.

The provincial government’s pollster doesn’t report the numbers this way, though.  CRA routinely inflates Tory support by as much as 28% by only reporting the percentage of decided voters.

These corrected figures also don’t account for the provincial government’s deliberate efforts to skew CRA’s polling numbers. As Bond Papers noted in late 2006, the Williams administration times its communications activities to correspond with their own pollster’s polling periods. probably one of the most significant examples of this would be the Premier’s disingenuous “have province’ announcement during the November sweeps month.

Local news media also routinely report CRA polls inaccurately by accepting at face value the CRA news releases.

Even allowing for problems with CRA’s polling, and for the government’s organized poll goosing efforts, that’s the largest quarterly drop CRA has reported for the Williams Tories since early 2005.

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Lower Churchill costs: now up to $14 billion and counting

According to Premier Danny Williams, the Lower Churchill project – which he estimates at a cost of up to $12 billion -  is “ the lowest cost , the cheapest hydroelectric project in all of North America.”  Dead link to CBC story June 1, 2010 quoting Williams]

That’s more than a bit of a stretch, even for the Old Man and his legendary love of absurd comments bordering on the ridiculous.

A simple comparison of costs based on information in the public domain demonstrates that the Premier’s claims in this case are once again nothing short of ridiculous.

For example, a 1998 cost estimate of the project elements to develop both Lower Churchill dam sites and the transmission infeeds (one to Quebec and the other to Soldier’s Pond, just west of St. John’s) put the cost at $10.5 billion.

Now we can add to that the costs of getting the power across to Nova Scotia, for example and then down into the United States.

According to the Chronicle-Herald, a study done for the Nova Scotia government put the cost of connecting from Newfoundland to Cape Breton between $800 million and $1.2 billion.  Hooking to the US would add another $2.0 billion to $3.0 billion to that.

The only thing we’d be missing at that point is a connection from Deer Lake to Port aux Basques or where ever the line would go to connect with Nova Scotia.

Even at that, we’d be looking at between $2.8 billion to $4.2 billion on top of the $10.5 billion to use the so-called Atlantic route.

That puts the grand total at between $13.3 billion and $14.7 billion.

Not bad for a project that the current administration touted in 2005 as costing about $3.3 billion.
But since Danny Williams said it is the lowest cost hydro-project in North America we can be pretty much assured he was talking through his hat.

Maybe he was talking in relative terms, like say as a measure of how much it would cost to get the power up and out to market for every megawatt produced;  it’s called, not surprisingly, a cost per megawatt calculation.

Well, the Lower Churchill’s 2800 megawatt project would come out as follows.  For good measure, there’s a comparison with the La Romaine project in Quebec which is already under way.

Cost	Cost per megawatt	Notes
$10.5 billion	$3.75 million	1998 projected cost, includes connection Quebec and Newfoundland only (currently under enviro assessment)
$12.0 billion	$4.285 million	2010 Williams upper-end estimate of project costs, link to Newfoundland and Quebec only. [Update]
$13.3 billion	$4.75 million	Low-end estimate to connect to NS and US
$14.7 billion	$5.25 million	High-end estimate to connect to NS and US
$6.5 billion	$4.195348 million	Hydro-Quebec’s La Romaine, 1550 MW

British Columbia’s Site C dam will deliver 900 megawatts for an estimated $6.0 billion so that will more expensive on a cost per megawatt basis.  That’s over $6.6 million per megawatt.  Another power project in Ontario will add 440 megawatts of power to an existing hydro structure for a cost of $2.0 billion or $4.5 million per megawatt.

By comparison, wind power projects run about $3.5 million per installed megawatt, according to a wind industry website.

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North Amethyst pumps first oil

A few things to note about the news that the White Rose extension field – called North Amethyst – pumped its first oil this week;

1. It took only four years to go from discovery to production. reducing the time from discovery to production is huge for the future of the offshore industry.
2. Tiebacks.  Expect to see more of them as Terra Nova dries out, for example.  Floating platforms are the most cost-effective way to exploit the numerous small fields that have already been discovered offshore. The gang at Terra Nova and eventually at White Rose can just float their hulls around, hook up to underwater pipes and pump the crude cheaply, efficiently and in a way that should be as environmentally sound as oil production can be.
3. An established royalty regime is a key part of promoting development.  That’s what worked for this deal and helped speed up development. Thankfully, while the 2007 energy plan called for a complete overall of the royalty regime, the generic regime is still in place.  Given the rate the current crowd do things, we wouldn’t see a royalty regime to replace the current one for decades.  As it is, the existing, pre-2003 royalty regimes – not the Old Man’s tweaks – are producing the lion’s share of offshore cash these days.

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How not to do social media

Kudos to the City of St. John’s for adopting a great way to build strong effective relationships with citizens.

"It's important that we communicate with people in ways that they want to be communicated to, and it's about getting the message out to the broadest range of people that we can," Coun. Danny Breen told Monday evening's council meeting.

Spot on, Danny!

But unless the City has its claims already staked to the most common or likely variations on the City’s identity at both Twitter and Facebook, the smartarse brigade will be there ahead of them.

That’s why you wait to unveil your strategy rather than say we are going to be doing this in a while.

AFAIK, @cityoflegends is available as of this moment.

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May Stat Porn

From May 1 to May 31:

• 13,508 visits.
• 19,427 page views.

Top 10 pages:

1. The World the Old Man Lives In
2. Lower Churchill:  Imaginary project.  Imaginary News Stories.
3. How our system doesn’t work
4. So long.  It’s been good to know you.
5. Reach for the Screech.
6. Tail-gunner Bob:  equality is not a “realistic philosophy”
7. 2001 Moonbus from Moebius in April
8. Potato, potato:  hydro version
9. AbitibiBowater files reorg plan
10. Court docket now online

By far and away, the most popular specific page in the past month has been the chart of the paranoid world described by the Premier’s statements about Quebec.

The other stories represent a mixed bag ranging from a discussion of our weakened political system in the province to a post about the Provincial Court docket.  Speaking of older posts, the docket one continues to be a popular item for search terms hits.  Ditto the 1/55th scale moonbus model from Moebius.  It’s been a sought-after item since 1969 when the old Aurora issued it for a single season.

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Like we told you: Lower Churchill decision up in the air indefinitely

The nugget of news buried in a front page story in Saturday’s Telegram [not online] turns out to be dead on: there is no timeline to sanction the Lower Churchill.

 Bond Papers reported it on Sunday and in the House of Assembly Premier Danny Williams said the same thing. CBC has the story complete with comments from the scrum after Question Period.

That’s a gigantic change from just a few years ago when the pledge was to sanction the project by 2009, start construction in 2010 and then get it pushing power by 2015.

Williams has been pushing back the timelines on the project since 2007 but Monday marks the first time he has tossed the calendar out the window.

None of this will come as a surprise to BP readers.  The problems with the project, including the lack of markets, are old news around here.

In that context, it’s a bit funny to hear Williams complaining about paying for transmission through Quebec.  That’s something your humble e-scribbler noted as long ago as 2007:

The go-it-alone option now being pursued by Williams means that Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro may now have to eat the costs of grid upgrades in Quebec and will certainly bear the cost of the underwater cabling to use the Maritime route. The cheapest estimate for the Maritime route would add an additional $1.5 to $2.0 billion to the project cost.

No word on what all this means for Williams’ personal political future, something he’s linked repeatedly to his continued life in politics.

If the Lower Churchill is off -  indefinitely – then by his own assessment, there’s really nothing holding Williams in politics. 

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Lower Churchill cost estimates skyrocket

Touted in 2004/05 at under $4 billion, Premier Danny Williams referred to the Lower Churchill in the House of Assembly on Monday as a “a $6 billion to $12 billion project.”

Williams insisted though in other comments in the legislature that from “a perspective of the cost, I can tell you that this particular project is the lowest cost, the cheapest hydro-electric project in all of North America.”

In another response he repeated the claim:

Mr. Speaker, I just said it before and I will say it again. This is the lowest cost hydro-electric project in all of North America. That is equivalent to – could deal head on with La Romaine or any other projects that come on stream from Quebec.

That’s an odd statement since Hydro-Quebec’s La Romaine project, announced is 2009, is estimated to cost $6.5 billion.  The Lower Churchill has not yet been sanctioned and the provincial government’s energy company is still picking its way through cost estimates and route analyses.

The original expressions of interest package for the Lower Churchill - released by the provincial government in 2005  - is no longer available online from either the provincial government or its energy company but the government’s estimated cost  - $3.3 billion - is contained in a report compiled by TD Economics at the time.

The provincial government cancelled the expressions of interest process in 2006, preferring to “go-it-alone”.  With the cancellation of the EOI process, the provincial government effectively rejected a joint proposal from Hydro-Quebec and Ontario Hydro to develop the project in co-operation with the province.  That proposal included upgrades to transmission capability to Ontario which would have been borne by the Ontario and  Quebec partners.

Once Williams rejected the proposal Hydro-Quebec turned to Plan B.  That involved development of about 4,000 megawatts of wind energy within Quebec and another 4,000 megawatts of hydro power from new projects all within Quebec.

The go-it-alone option also didn’t turn out that way even after Williams rejected the proposal.  As natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale revealed last September, Danny Williams and others spent five years in secret talks trying to lure Hydro-Quebec into a deal on the Lower Churchill.  In the process Williams abandoned his previous commitment that he wouldn’t cut a deal with Hydro-Quebec on the Lower Churchill unless it involved redress for the 1969 deal that led to the development of Churchill Falls.

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Rumpole and the Phantom Judges

Don Singleton never sat as a Provincial Court judge, not even for a single day.

But he has an e-mail address and an entry in the provincial government’s electronic telephone directory.

 

Absolutely astonishing, isn’t it?

James Igloliorte, the retired judge who sat on the Blame Canada commission almost a decade ago has an e-mail address and a telephone number.

Ring the number and you will get a telephone at the Child and Youth Advocate’s Office.

But wait:  it gets better.

David Peddle, a justice of the supreme court since December 2008, still has an entry on the provincial government’s directory giving an e-mail, telephone and facsimile address. 

His number gets you to his replacement, Mike Madden.

And if that all wasn’t bad enough, there are even a couple of judges listed in the directory who passed away within the past decade.  Your humble e-scribbler has screen caps of the entries for posterity but since there problem here is with the people maintaining the directory, there’s no need to reveal the names of the deceased individuals.

Given that the department responsible for the telephone directory just overhauled the whole site, it seems odd they didn’t manage to delete names of people who are retired or dead or both.

But what’s more, given all the controversy that surrounded Don Singleton’s appointment, plus the fact he resigned the appointment before he ever got to the job, how did the guy ever get a government e-mail address and a listing in the directory in the first place?

Not surprising of course.  After all, if you can expropriate a mill by mistake…

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Lower Churchill decision up in the air, indefinitely

The provincial government’s energy plan  - released in 2007 - committed to a sanction decision by 2009 and first power by 2015 but in an interview with the Telegram published in the Saturday edition, premier Danny Williams said he has no idea when he might be in a position to decide on whether the project goes or not.

Asked for a firm timeline on when the provincial government will decide how to move forward with the project, Williams said:

I can’t give you that.  That’s a question that I ask as well with NALCOR and we’re not there yet.

The Telegram story follows up on comments in Friday’s Telegraph-Journal by new Brunswick Premier Shawn Graham that the cost of Lower Churchill power is a factor in whether or not his provincial energy company will buy from the Lower Churchill .

The Telegram quotes New Brunswick energy minister Jack Keir:

My view would be: show us your business case.  Show us what it would be to get here and when that’s going to be…

It could be 10 years, it could be 15 years.  And maybe 16 cents at that point is a great number.  Who knows?

That’s the first time anyone has given any hint of the sort of prices NALCOR may have floated in talks with any potential power customer.  Williams told the Telegram that NALCOR has had preliminary talks with New Brunswick.

That’s also the first time that anyone has publicly acknowledged what many know privately, namely that the Lower Churchill is at least a decade or more away from construction and may well be held up even longer.

So much for juice by 2015.

Williams also confirmed to the Telegram that NALCOR isn’t ready to talk seriously about an energy sale from the Lower Churchill with any potential customers.

We can only sell that power when we’ve got it – when we’ve built the generation and built the transmission.

He admitted, for the first time, that the province’s energy company is still working on project cost estimates.  Power purchase agreements are crucial to securing enough financing for the $10 billion energy megaproject.

This information also confirms why NALCOR balked at making a firm commitment to run power through Quebec for the Lower Churchill.  If there is no project, then there’s no reason to commit provincial cash to building  billions of dollars in transmission lines or buying up space on the Quebec grid.

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Fact Check: CBC and political party leadership

In the House is not a home, former opposition leader Erik Neilson pointed out that the news media had a habit of calling him the interim leader. 

That is, of course, completely wrong:  Neilson was the opposition leader in the Commons, full stop.

Now cbc.ca/nl has pulled a similar gaffe:  “The [provincial Liberal] party hasn't had a full-time leader since the last provincial election in 2007.”

The Liberal Party has had a full-time leader since 2007.  The leader’s name is Yvonne Jones.

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Principal beneficiary

Newfoundland and Labrador’s royalty take from the offshore in 2009 (entirely based on 1985 Atlantic Accord and deals negotiated pre-2003): $1,826.3 million

Federal government take from Hibernia 8.5% share:  $107 million. 

That’s not bad for a bunch that supposedly couldn’t negotiate deals.

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