28 September 2010

Cringeworthy

What better time to issue a news release noting that a whole bunch of volunteers are helping out after a disaster than four days into it and long before the thing is over?

The wording, of course, must have the ring of a rejected greeting card to increase the sincerity of the sentiment behind the release.

Oh yes:  Don’t forget to plug your website and advertising campaign with the slogan that in no way is the subject of guffaws and derision across the province.

Finish with a snappy close that in absolutely no way came out of government-issued phrase generator.  Like “to help ensure that [insert event type here] happens in the most safe and efficient way possible.”

The provincial government agency responsible for the volunteer sector – Dave Denine, minister - would never be so tacky.

Would they?

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The politicisation of public emergencies


CBC commentator Bob Wakeham [CBC Radio audio file observed Monday morning that:
Also last week the emergency measures organization seemed to keep a low profile.  perhaps its employees were doing what they were supposed to be doing, but some of my journalistic friends working this hurricane story told me EMO seemed more than willing to hand over visual and public responsibility to cabinet ministers, to talking heads all of whom one would think know little or nothing about these matters, certainly a lot less than officials with a specific mandate to deal with, as the name implies, emergencies.
Right after saying that, Wakeham noted that there did not seem last week to be a sense of immediacy to the emergency response.

These two elements are connected.

And they tie as well to an observation made later Monday morning by the host of the morning talk show in the province.  Randy Simms wondered if the province’s fire and emergency management agency had a communications plan and any people responsible for carrying it out. Simms likened the situation to a disaster in the United States or the cougar crash.  He wondered where were the daily  - or even more frequent - technical briefings that featured, front and centre, the people actually delivering the emergency service, telling the rest of us what they were doing.

What Simms is talking about is what one expect in any other part of North America. Effective public communications are an integral part of recovery operations. Priority should go to basic information – where to find shelter, contact numbers to report problems, etc. – so that people who need help can get it.

This is a basic communications principle:  give people the information they need.

Regular operational briefings allows the emergency managers to make sure that accurate information on the entire emergency gets to the public using news media.  A typical briefing would include maps showing local situations and the type of problems being dealt with.  People get information.  They can track progress.  As events develop they can gain confidence that things are getting better. They can also better assess their own situation and make sensible decisions about their own situation;  they may need to just hang tough and weather the discomfort.  Or they can seek help.  Either way, information helps people make the right decision and have confidence.

In the modern age, officials should be using websites, Twitter, and Facebook to help push out detailed information. These can also be ways of feeding information into the emergency management room. 

News media bring pictures.  E-mails and twitter posts can give clues to where problems and that will supplement the information coming to the operations centre from health, fire, emergency, roads and other officials who should be present in the command centre.

The competence of the recovery - readily displayed to the public - instills public confidence.

St. John’s housing market feels national slowing trend

From RBC Economics:

Atlantic Canada’s housing market was not immune to the significant slowdown in activity that has swept across the country since spring. In the last few months, housing resales in the region fell back to the lows reached during the late 2008 to early 2009 downturn. The decline was felt across the board, including areas, such as St. John’s, which were on a tear earlier this year. The cooling in demand loosened up market conditions a little – they were very tight at the start of this year – and restrained home price increases.  In turn, this limited the rise in homeownership costs in the region. Depending on the housing type, RBC Housing Affordability Measures moved up between 1.1 and 1.5 percentage points in the second quarter and remain very close to long-term averages. Overall, housing affordability in Atlantic Canada
continues to be quite attractive and signals little in the way of undue
stress at this point.

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27 September 2010

NL only province to post jump in EI claims in July

The number of Employment Insurance claimants dropped in every province in Canada in July compared to June except in Newfoundland and Labrador.  The province saw an increase of 2.4% in EI claims in July, matching the increase seen in June from May.

Year over year, the number of claims is down 16.2%.

In June to July 2009, the number of EI claims went up by 6.5% but then dropped by 8.7% the next month. 

Over the past year, the number of claims has dropped each month, except for the past two.  Most months, the drops were modest, ranging from 0.0% to 1.3%.  Except for the July to August 2009 drop of 8.7%, the largest drop was 3.2% from October to November 2009.

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26 September 2010

Recovery effort continues #igornl

Via Trudy Lundrigan and Flickr, here are some photos of the impact Hurricane Igor had on Lawn, Newfoundland.

Lawn is currently out of gasoline.  A shipment of gasoline sent by ship to the southern part of the Burin Peninsula didn’t stretch far enough to cover the community.  CBC quotes the mayor of the town saying:

"We're waiting now. We've got no gas here whatsoever," said Mayor Bill Lockyer, before calling the decision that put his community in this position "brainless."

Lockyer said given the road conditions, Lawn residents have the longest drive to the Grand Bank hospital of any Burin town. And the community of almost 800 is home to at least three people who require dialysis treatment, Lockyer said.

The provincial government is using some of the government’s own ferries to move supplies across Placentia Bay to the communities on the southern part of the peninsula.  They are currently isolated by damaged bridges.  While repairs are underway, it is possible they may only be able to handled reduced traffic loads for the first while after they are back in service.

CBC also quotes one resident who is concerned about the current state of affairs:

"We haven't seen any help at all," [Jenny] Tarrant said.

Tarrant said apart from what she can find online, she's not hearing any plans for relief. She said until Lawn residents get some answers about when aid is coming, concern will continue to spread.

Assessment of roads continues but the widespread nature of the damage continues to hamper recovery efforts.  Canadian Forces engineers decided to postpone bridge installations on the Bonavista Peninsula Sunday pending an improvement in road conditions.  The existing state of roads prevents heavy trucks from moving equipment into position.

All areas of the province now have electricity.  Newfoundland Power crews completed the the job of reconnecting lines over the weekend and are now focused on dealing with individual homes and small clusters that have lost power due to tree damage to specific sections of the grid.

large A map released by the Government of Canada over the weekend gives some indication of the scope of the problem facing recovery teams. Towns marked in purple have declared states of emergency.  those in red have food shortages.  The map is current as of 1130 hours local time, Saturday 25 Sep 2010.

While roads damage is keeping some communities isolated, recovery teams have airlifted fuel into a number of towns and villages.

 

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Igor emergency and donation info #igornl

Via Rick Martin, an up-to-date pile of information related to Hurricane Igor emergency response and donations.

If you need contact info or want to assist by donations, this is the place to visit first.

Rick Martin’s Igor* Info

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* Freudian slip correction

25 September 2010

Comprehensive #igornl coverage

@cbcnl’s website gives the most comprehensive collection of Hurricane Igor coverage out there.

You’ll also find a decent site at The Telegram, @stjohnstelegram on Twitter. Some stunning photos on their story pages.  Hopefully they’ll collect them together in a special space.  The shots and the shooters deserve that recognition.

  • Read further, Twillick Update:  There are three photo slide shows on the Telly site.  Just scroll down to find them.
  • There is also a great collection of photos on the Packet website.  That’s the weekly in Clarenville.
  • The Southern Gazette is the weekly on the Burin peninsula, another area severely affected by Igor.

NTV News doesn’t have a separate Igor space but their website contains all their broadcast stories. Ditto VOCM, the largest private radio broadcaster in the province.

 

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Traffic Drivers, September 20-24, 2010

  1. Jane Taber – Twit
  2. Hurricane Igor:  Emergency Response TASFU
  3. Important Igor Emergency Information. Not Really.
  4. Katrina North:  the picture changes
  5. Economics as ideology or, The Other Dismal Science
  6. Full of sound and fury
  7. Ok Go’s latest video – White Knuckles
  8. Labour force indicators raise questions about economic health and competitiveness
  9. Court docket now online
  10. A campaign of pork and entitlement (reprint)

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24 September 2010

Canadian Forces backgrounders: #igornl

Update: 26 Sep 10:  Third ship is actually HMCS Montreal, another FFH, not HMCS Moncton as earlier indicated.

Elements of 4 ESR are involved in bridge construction and supplying potable water to communities where fresh water is unavailable, according to media reports. in addition to army water purification capability, the three FFHs have the capacity to produce drinking water.

HMC ships Fredericton and Montreal arrived from Halifax.  HMCS St. John’s at St. John’s during and immediately after IGOR.  The week before the ship had carried the Lieutenant-Governor on his annual tour to remote coastal communities.

- 30 -

Original Post (24 Sep 10):

For those who are interested, here are some links to background information on the units and equipment involved in the Canadian Forces’ disaster relief operation in Newfoundland:

The Regiment's primary operational task is the provision of sustainment engineering such as water supply, route maintenance and construction, vertical construction and the provision of utilities. The Regiment is also capable of performing traditional engineer tasks in the following areas: mobility and survivability.

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Harper/Williams disconnect #igornl

According to the Prime MInister, engineers from 4 Engineer Support Regiment in Gagetown are on their way to Newfoundland to assist in disaster relief.

As well, two or three ships – HMCS Fredericton, HMCS St. John’s and maybe HMCS Moncton – and helicopters on Fredericton and St. John’s are available for hurricane relief as well.

News media are reporting that. Here’s a Telegram story complete with a picture of Fredtown offshore Grand Bank.

Seems no one told the provincial government which delayed a newser Friday afternoon by a whole hour after the Prime Minister left town.

In addition, the Provincial Government has requested from the Government of Canada the provision of support from the Department of National Defense. [sic] The specific support being requested consists of Sea King helicopters and the ship-based naval support necessary to maintain operation of these helicopters, which have night flying and heavy lifting capabilities.

That release seems like the provincial government specifically wanted to limit the DND help available by asking only for helicopters.  And for the record, the helicopters don’t actually need ships.  The ships just happen to bring other capabilities with them, like water-purification units, medical facilities and other essential services needed during disaster relief operations.

Either the person who wrote that bit of the news release simply didn’t know what was going on or he or she wanted to minimise the scope of the help the provincial government needed.

Still no word on whether the engineers are coming or why the provincial government didn’t request help earlier.  Given the magnitude of the disaster it seems strange the provincial government would hesitate to take advantage of the considerable resources available even through the local reserve forces of the navy, army and air force.

Katrina North: the picture changes #igornl

Some four days after Hurricane Igor ripped through Newfoundland and Labrador, more and more people are calling local media to complain about the lack of provincial government action in the wake of the disaster.

On Friday afternoon, local media reports suggest that:

  1. despite knowing they had a huge disaster on their hands from the beginning, the provincial government never called for federal government assistance; and,
  2. for some reason the provincial government has still not requested federal assistance even as the Canadian Forces prepares to send elements of 4 Engineer Support Regiment from Gagetown, New Brunswick  and three ships from the Canadian navy to provide humanitarian assistance.

Make no mistake: responsibility for emergency response in the province sits squarely on the shoulders of the politicians who flitted around in helicopters for two days.  The federal government can only act once they get a request from the province. If the Canadian Forces aren’t in Newfoundland already it is simply because the provincial government didn’t ask for them.

In the days ahead, the provincial government may face some very difficult questions about its failure to seek help even when the magnitude of the disaster was well known.  Things were bad enough on the first day.  They were painfully obvious by the second.  By Friday – the fourth day – the scope was overwhelming.

Who knows why the provincial cabinet delayed asking for help as long as it did?  One thing is for sure, you can tell there are political consequences to the provincial government’s inaction.  Were it not so, the government’s political friends – like Bill Rowe – would not be trying so desperately to push responsibility for emergency response onto someone else’s shoulders.

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23 September 2010

Important #igornl Emergency Information. Not really.

Education minister Darin King called VOCM’s night time call-in show to take a pot-shot at people criticising government for its supposed lack of emergency communications.

He and his colleagues have been working hard on behalf of their constituents, Darin assured us all.  Darin and Clyde Jackman only took time away from their districts to go to a cabinet meeting in St. John’s.  Presumably, if they came to St. John’s, they flew there on a chartered helicopter but that will be another story.

Darin mentioned he has been pushing information out via his Facebook site, for example.  Okay, sez your humble e-scribbler, let’s check out the important storm and recovery info Darin is offering his constituents.

There are a couple of things on Darin’s website, as of 2130 hours Thursday night.  Like this tourism notice:

king1

The other thing is basically a report on his helicopter ride, issued September 23, which would be the day after his ride. Note that it doesn’t really contain any official emergency response information and what it does give is pretty vague. 

As for Facebook, there are 12 notes on Darin’s “wall” in the past two days.  Two of them contain information about road repairs.  He had to get the big giant head in there though, in case people might not recall where they found the information.  Maybe it is just there as a reminder that – as Darin said a couple of times during his call Thursday night – you have to check the source of the information:

king2

The other wall posts are essentially all pictures taken during the recent helicopter tour by the Premier and a few other bigwigs.

The comms assessment?  The noise to signal ratio is pretty high.  Lots of static:  very little useful information.

But the scarcity of solid information on Darin’s site suggests that even cabinet ministers aren’t getting good updates on what is going on. That reinforces the point that the provincial government’s emergency response system desperately needs a complete overhaul. If you take Darin’s helicopter ride “update” at face value, there’s no sign of the emergency services division at all. The whole thing seems rather haphazard.

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Hurricane #IGORNL Emergency Response: TASFU

One thing is becoming clear a couple of days after Hurricane Igor swept through eastern Newfoundland:  for all the weather and other emergencies in the province over the past decade, the province’s emergency response system – municipal and provincial – remains woefully ill-prepared and poorly organized.

All the same, it is nice to know that the province’s major daily newspaper and the provincial agency responsible for emergency response have their priorities in order.  As ordinary citizens in Clarenville arrange boatloads of supplies to help people in isolated communities on nearby Random Island, the Telegram and Fire and Emergency Services – Newfoundland and Labrador want to make sure people get their paperwork in order so that those claims for federal assistance or insurance coverage will flow easier.

It’s taken FES two whole days to post a web link to any Igor information and, chronologically,  the first release is the one linked:  document everything so you can file claims.  There’s not very much solid and up-to-date information road closures, power outages or what to do if there is a specific problem. That sort of thing, by the way, is being done in exemplary fashion by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police even though it isn’t their job. For the provincial government, it’s hard to find out any concrete information.

Like say you are in one of those isolated communities and need medical help.  Where do you go?  Well, apparently the best thing to do is call the local radio station.  The government’s ever-vigilant agents will pick up the call and get on the case to deliver a peachy response.

But what if you don’t have a phone?

Maybe you can flag down one of the government-chartered helicopters ferrying politicians hither and yon so these tourists can see for themselves the magnitude of the disaster. They talk to reporters about the sights, incidentally, as if they, themselves were either in it or doing anything substantive about it.  With rare exceptions, they aren’t.

In St. John’s, two days later, the city website has one thing about Igor issued after the storm hit. It’s an advisory on where to drop off tree bits. Never mind that people have been using those spots since they started cleaning up – 24 hours and more ago – and that this information is potentially the least important stuff of all the city is responsible to its citizens for. 

But still the average citizen cannot tell where the power in town is off and what traffic lights are functioning.  This is crucial safety information for those of us trying to get to work or get children to school.  None of that is available from the city but residents of the capital could hear a councilor this morning on radio talking up the great city emergency plan.

Then this politician issued the warning that because power is off at the bus depot, they can’t keep up with regular maintenance and might have to reduce service.  One wonders why they would take such a drastic measure if there are other city facilities with power and other spaces in the metro area where they might relocate bus maintenance temporarily.

Two mayors hit on the problem this morning while chatting on a local open line show.  One is the host of the show and the other called in to advise the world that his community is now officially out of gas at the local gas stations.  The only road is down and people are hoping the road will be fixed within 24 hours or so.  Other than that there is no plan – apparently – on how someone might get fuel for generators and such into the affected area.

The two mayors talked about lessons to be learned after things were all over.  They are absolutely right.  That’s the time to figure out what to do and what not to do next time based on experience in this event.

But then one of the mayor’s offered the view that maybe the emergency response  this time has not been as good as it should have been.

He’s absolutely right.

The provincial government spends more money today on emergency response than it ever did before.  There’s a whole division of government to handle central co-ordination where just a decade ago there only four people for the whole province.

And yet:  TASFU. 

Things are still fouled up.

The main reason is that for all the lessons readily evident from other emergencies, none have been learned.  People want you to believe that 9/11 was a success.  Provincially, it was a balls-up on many levels.  The official assessment doesn’t come close to noting that.  Ditto other, more recent, natural disasters.

Instead, the government system seems geared to the sort of knob polishing that infests sections of the Telegram. Frankly, the provincial municipal affairs minister today sounds much like his predecessor nine years ago.  Lots of kudos and vacuous verbiage but not much in the way of solid information that people need.  His hasty call to an open line show Thursday came with the breathless claim that he had to rush off to catch another sight-seeing helo-ride.  Big fat hairy deal.

Sure emergency response in the province works very well out where real people – road crews, police, fire, linemen, health care workers and so forth – do real jobs. Practicality and good will are the order of the day and that is what worked during 9/11.  If Newfoundland Power needs to get to a spot, they will sort it out with the local roads guys.  The result will be haphazard and uneven, but then again, that’s what happens when the entire provincial emergency “plan” relies in 2010, as it did in 2001, on people pulling it out of their ass on the day.

Meanwhile, back in the head-shed, in the place that is supposed to be co-ordinating the hockey bag of public and private agencies - assigning scarce resources to the places they will do the most good -  heads are just buried deep in the hockey bag.  Not much in the way of light is getting through. How else would one explain a political news conference the day of the storm called for exactly the same time as a technical report from Environment Canada and an official of the province’s emergency response division?

You can hear the same old excuses already bubbling up.  This was an unprecedented disaster, they are already saying.  Yes,  it was.  And so was the one before that and the one before that and the one before that.  We’ve heard it as an excuse for failures every time.

No one should doubt the sincerity of politicians in wanting to relieve the suffering of their fellow citizens.  But the time for their intervention is not now.  The time for that was last month, last year and five years ago when they should have been making sure the emergency response system worked.

They’ll get another chance to fix things when this current disaster is over, as two mayors suggested already. This time, though, everyone needs to face the things that didn’t work – yet again – and fix them.

Otherwise, when the next hurricane barrels through, we’ll just face the same old fumbled responses and the same “never saw this before” excuses.

The people of the province deserve better.

Let’s put an end to the emergency response TASFU.

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Day-ja vue Update:  Nothing like a bit of perspective.

Via nottawa, a reminder that this same bullshit – send us your receipts and get your forms properly filled out – came around the last time Mother Nature roared through town on a bender. 

Back then of course, the local Reform-based Conservative Party  - as the Old man now likes to think of it - wasn’t speaking kindly of the federal Reform-based Conservative Party.  So it was Stock Day telling the Old Man to make sure his paperwork was done properly.

And yes, there was also the effort to turn disaster relief into some sort of infrastructure funding program, as if then or now the provincial government didn’t have the cash to fund improvements to roads, bridges and drainage systems. If Marystown mayor Sam Synyard, for example, wants to install bigger culverts on the local roads, then Sam could be and should be looking to the tourists in the helicopter for some cash.

Nottawa’s also got some other pithy observations on emergency response.

22 September 2010

Jane Taber - Twit

As shallow goes, the Globe’s gossip columnist always seemed like a wading pool.

As it turns out, there wasn’t even water in it.

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Ok Go’s latest video – White Knuckles

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21 September 2010

Creditors approve AbitibiBowater restructuring plan

The AbitibiBowater news release:

ABWTQ (OTC)

MONTREAL, Sept. 21 /CNW Telbec/ - AbitibiBowater is pleased to announce that the Company has received the necessary creditor approval for its plan of reorganization under chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code, except with respect to Bowater Canada Finance Corporation (BCFC), a special purpose company subsidiary with no operating assets, which has been excluded from the chapter 11 plan. The chapter 11 plan of reorganization received overwhelming support from creditors, both in dollar amount of claims and in number of claim holders who voted on the plan.

Having obtained the requisite votes from creditors, except with respect to BCFC, the Company and its subsidiaries will exclude BCFC from the process and proceed with plan confirmation. The Company does not believe that the exclusion of BCFC will affect the timing of its confirmation hearing that is scheduled to start on September 24, 2010, in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware.

"We are pleased to have received approval by the vast majority of creditors under the U.S. Bankruptcy Code for our chapter 11 plan of reorganization," stated David J. Paterson, President and Chief Executive Officer. "We appreciate the support for our plans of reorganization as we work to create a more sustainable and competitive organization."

As previously announced, on September 14, 2010, the Company received approval for its plan of reorganization from affected creditors under the Canadian Companies' Creditors Arrangement Act in Canada, except with respect to BCFC.

Subject to the satisfaction of certain conditions provided for in the plans of reorganization, AbitibiBowater continues to expect emergence from creditor protection this fall.

Details of the voting results under the chapter 11 plan of reorganization, including votes on a class-by-class basis, will be available through www.abitibibowater.com/restructuring.

AbitibiBowater produces a wide range of newsprint, commercial printing and packaging papers, market pulp and wood products. It is the eighth largest publicly traded pulp and paper manufacturer in the world. AbitibiBowater owns or operates 19 pulp and paper facilities and 24 wood products facilities located in the United States, Canada and South Korea. Marketing its products in more than 70 countries, the Company is also among the world's largest recyclers of old newspapers and magazines, and has third-party certified 100% of its managed woodlands to sustainable forest management standards. AbitibiBowater's shares trade over-the-counter on the Pink Sheets and on the OTC Bulletin Board under the stock symbol ABWTQ.

For further information: Investors: Duane Owens, Vice President, Finance, 864 282-9488; Media and Others: Seth Kursman, Vice President, Public Affairs, Sustainability & Environment, 514 394-2398, seth.kursman@abitibibowater.com

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Full of sound and fury

Public consultations on a strategy for “the inclusion of persons with disabilities” in society.

In the 21st century.

A strategy to include people with disabilities in society.

Another consultation to develop a strategy for early childhood education.

Novel idea.

41 cash announcements in the month of August alone, according to the Telegram editorial, a great many of which involved the announcement – yet again -  of earlier announcements.  In some others, announcements include money for new food carts in hospitals and nursing homes.

Announcement of a plan to install a new set of road scales in Labrador.

A gaggle of ministers and government members of the legislature visit a shipyard to look at construction of new ferries that have been in the works for most of the current administration’s tenure.

And then there’s the study of garbage.

This is a provincial government that talks more and more about less and less.

The reason is simple enough:  we are in a pre-election/pre-leadership period. We know that, all things being equal, there is an election in October 2011.  We also  know that Danny Williams will leave politics sometime over the next two to three years.

Now governments in either of those phases alone aren’t famous for doing much of anything new. Pre-election governments like to spend cash, as everyone in the province saw in 2007’s Summer of Love vote-buying orgy from the Reform-based Conservative Party currently running the local show.  Pre-leadership governments usually get caught up in the internal division as people jockey for position in the party leadership race.  And since they can’t get any agreement on any major initiative until someone winds up as leader, there is nothing knew likely to happen until the leadership issue is resolved. Well, nothing that is except spend money,

Governments in the double-whammy of pre-election and pre-leadership are rare.  But what they do is guarantee a unique kind of lowest-common-denominator politics.  Money is everywhere for everything.  In addition to that, you have the raft of consultations on things that are the sort motherhood issues not likely to raise controversy.  Inclusion?  Early childhood education?  These are hardly debatable subjects.

Even John Hickey  - seldom heard from any more - is getting in on the act. He’s got an information session scheduled for Churchill Falls.  Apparently there is something about the Northern Strategic Plan they haven’t heard yet.

You can tell these things are busy work, by the way.  First of all, there is that word strategy.  This is nothing more than the latest government cliche.  Second there is the schedule.  A good half of the consultations on childhood education take place in the afternoon, a time when the people most likely to be concerned about the subject are working.  As the video of the session from Mount Pearl showed, the room was nearly empty and two of those in the audience were cabinet minister Dave Denine and his executive assistant.

Added to this whirligig of deep thoughts are the early stages of a leadership racket.  Until lately, cabinet ministers seldom showed up to talk about anything substantial with anyone. Danny and Liz wouldn’t let them. But now education minister Darin King is on any radio station with a phone to discuss his early childhood education initiative.  Health minister Jerome! Kennedy is the face of health care spending.  Note the number of news stories about multiple sclerosis that described government spending as something Jerome! himself was doing personally.

Personally is the clue.  Cabinet government is normally collective government.  Sure there is a powerful front man, but cabinets wind up being committees that share the load of deciding on this problem or that one. Except of course, in the Danny Williams administration. It’s only natural that those who wish to replace The Old Man should work hard to be seen as the one person with an idea.

And while all of this consulting, and announcing and news conferencing is going on in public, not much else is happening.  No discussions about labour relations.  No talk about reforms to economic development policy, the fishery, a strategy to address problems in the labour force or anything else that might actually involve some serious discussion and tough choices that everyone in the province has a right to be involved in.

No.

That’s the sort of stuff that will have to wait until after the next election and Danny’s successor is firmly in place. Meanwhile, the people in government no one has heard much of in a while are busily sorting out the budget for 2011. 

That’s right. 

We are now half way through 2010 and it is usually around this time that government officials try and figure out what next year will look like.  For the past seven years that’s been pretty much Danny’s exclusive responsibility and odds are that’s where he’s been holed up lately.  He’ll work hard into the winter and make the big decisions well before sending old Tommy Marshall out for that biggest consultation farce, the one on the budget.

While the Old Man works quietly in the background on the stuff that involves real choices, government officials are wondering if you think that in 2010 we should find ways to allow people with disabilities to become fully contributing members of our society.

The busy-work will continue.  The number of news releases and consultations will only multiply as time goes by. It’s all part of an effort to make it seem like stuff is happening when, in truth, not much of consequence is. But it will certainly seem important, as only a Fernando Administration would allow. It is better, after all,  to look busy than to be busy.

And lest you doubt all this consider that coming soon to a motel meeting room or bingo hall near you, is a round table on that burning question on the minds of fish plant workers, and foresters and soccer moms everywhere -  puppy dogs: cute or what?

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20 September 2010

Labour force indicators raise questions about economic health and competitiveness

In a recent Fraser Institute study of labour markets in North America, Newfoundland and Labrador came in 49th out of 60 overall.  The study measured performance in five indicators:

  • average total employment growth,
  • average private-sector employment growth,
  • average unemployment rate,
  • average duration of unemployment, and,
  • average gross domestic product per worker.

The study also assessed the level of public sector employment, minimum wage rate, level of unionization, labour relations laws and what the study authors termed “other areas of concern”.

Here’s how Newfoundland and Labrador placed in nine of the categories for which there was a readily measurable score that compared jurisdictions straightforwardly.   

Some of these figures, like the private sector as a percentage of the labour force, will be very familiar to Bond Papers readers. Now there is some context for them that shows they are cause for concern not just in and of themselves but because they raise serious questions about the overall health of the economy and about the province’s competitiveness.

It should almost go with saying that anyone arguing for an increase in public sector employment is out of touch.

  1. Average total employment growth (2005-2009):  38th place with 0.1%.  That’s the weakest of the Canadian provinces.  The next weakest was Nova Scotia with 0.5%.
  2. Average private-sector employment growth (2005-2009):  34th place with 0.0%.
  3. Average unemployment rate (2005-2009):  60th place with 14.5%.
  4. Average duration of unemployment (2005-2009):  17th place with 14.9% of the unemployed being out of work for 27 weeks or longer.
  5. Average GDP per worker (2005-2009):  eighth place with $134,494.
  6. Average provincial public sector employment as share of total employment (2005-2009):  59th, with 24.8%.  Nevada and Pennsylvania topped the ranking with 9.4% and 9.5% respectively.  Only Saskatchewan beat out Newfoundland and Labrador for the bottom spot with 24.9%
  7. Average public sector employment (fed/prov/mun) as a share of total employment:  60th place with 28.2%
  8. Average minimum wage as percent of GDP per worker (2004-2008):  10th place, 12%.
  9. Unionized work force as a percentage of total work force (2005-2009):  59th, with 38%.  Quebec was the most unionised jurisdiction, at 39.9%.  North Carolina was the least with 4.3%.

Some of the other areas of concern are also interesting to note.  Newfoundland and Labrador showed the most days of work lost per 1,000 employees due to industrial disputes. (390 days, 2004-2008) That was three time the number of days of the second spot, British Columbia, with 127 days. Quebec – in third place – had a loss work days of 75 days.

And here are a couple of measures for just the past year:

  1. Average unemployment rate, July 2009- June 2010:  60th place with an average unemployment rate of 15.4%. 
  2. Average total employment growth, July 2009-June 2010:   tied for second place with 0.2% average growth.

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19 September 2010

Economics as ideology, or, The Other Dismal Science

So at some point people thought that economists actually might be good at forecasting things.

No wait.

This is serious.

Apparently, some people actually believed that.

But only now is some mathematician figuring out there might be some doubt as to the ability of your average economist to forecast much of anything with any accuracy.

According to David Orrell:
Current economic theory is less a science than an ideology peculiar to a certain period of history, which may well be nearing an end…
All jokes aside, the Globe piece by Brian Milner is worth the time, if for no other reason than there is an audio excerpt of Orrell reading from his book, Economyths: 10 ways economists get it wrong.


While Orrell uses ideology in another sense, it is interesting that two of the economists who get the most popular attention in Newfoundland and Labrador seem to be more ideological or partisan than analytical.  To wit:
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