Kremlinology 28: How will he go?

Gordon Campbell resigned suddenly last week as Premier of British Columbia. Campbell’s been under considerable political pressure resulting fro introduction of the harmonized sales tax in the province.

The Globe this weekend is taking a look at the impact not only of Campbell’s departure but the abrupt way he left the political stage.  The quote Bob Plecas, a former Campbell advisor:

Any serious contender to replace Mr. Campbell, whose unpopular harmonized sales tax has crippled the party, would have to be free to differentiate himself or herself from the current policies, he added.

“But what he’s asking them to do is stay on the Titanic and keep rowing,” Mr. Plecas said.

It’s not exactly the same situation at the other end of the country.  Campbell left suddenly and pretty much unexpectedly.  Danny Williams, by contrast, has already made it abundantly clear he’s in the later stages of his political career in this province.

In fact, Williams first talked about quitting politics in late 2006.  Not surprisingly, one of the things he was moaning about at the time was the weight of the office he volunteered for. The backstory on his winter and spring full of discontent, at the time,  probably had much more to do with the collapse of Hebron talks and revelations about gross overspending and criminal activity in the House of Assembly, some of which continued until 2006, rather than any real annoyance with the life in the political goldfish bowl.

Fast forward four years.

Williams’ most recent version of the 12 minute rant at every Goldstein he could think of seemed to be much more about his frustration with the Lower Churchill, the budget and other matters than about liberals and the media.  After all, he finished up by urging people not to pay attention to the “bullshit”.  That would be, of course, the same “bullshit” he just spent 12 minutes obsessing about.

Doesn’t make sense, does it?

Not really.

Then again, it seldom does.

Maybe he was offering excuses for failure. 

“Imagine how much I could do…” or whatever the exact words were.  Your humble e-scribbler has made the same point many times before.  Maybe a lot more would get done if only the current administration didn’t spend so much time  - and public money - manipulating public opinion or obsessing about the three people in a coffee shop in Deer Lake who muttered misdemeanour words about the Old Man.

Maybe Williams was just venting his considerable frustration  - yet again - again with the job he volunteered for and that no one is forcing him to keep.  It’s just that those outbursts seem to be coming a bit more frequently lately.  His last Great Whine Session was in August, the last polling period.

As these bitch sessions seem to come closer and closer together, it seems appropriate to wonder how and when exactly Williams will finally give us all the wave from the Cessna door as he heads off to Florida more or less permanently.

Will he go before October 2011 or has his caucus roped him into one last kick at the cat?  What happens if the polls shift and it looks like he won’t reclaim the seats he has right now let alone score all of them?  Danny Williams hardly seems like the kind of guy who would stick around and settle for being in exactly the same spot again.  He needs to go for something bigger.  But what happens if he couldn’t hope to sweep all 48 seats in the House?

Will he struggle along and wait until 2013 or 2014 before pulling pin? Will he give plenty of lead time and hang around while his successors duke it out or will he pull a Campbell and walk out one fine January afternoon?

No matter what happens, we know that Danny Williams is in the final stages of his political career.  Go back to April and you can see a list of some of the contenders and pretenders to the throne who are already campaigning for his job. Maybe it’s time to think now about how he will finally slide out of his current job and when.

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Crude up, but what does it mean?

Crude oil finished the week on a high, with Brent coming closer to US$90 a barrel than at any time since October 2008.

That’s good.

Right?

Well, maybe.

Certainly, in the short run it brings in some extra cash.  The provincial government low-balled production estimates in the spring budget but the actual production level only offset prices below the forecast average of US$83. in the end, the forecast oil revenue will likely not be far off the actual budget projection of $2.1 billion. 

Don’t be surprised if it is more like $2.5 billion.  if that’s the case, then the current budget is the first one in a long while where the provincial government gave figures that were close to the actuals.

Unfortunately, the budget forecast a cash deficit of around $900 million.

Two things will help bring that number down.  First, production at Voisey’s Bay – even allowing for a strike – might start pushing government’s mining royalty back up to where it was before the recession.

Second, and perhaps most likely, the provincial government could be way off in its  capital works spending.  This is – you will recall – a government that has a real problem getting the job done.  If someone could come up with a little blue pill for it, these guys would buy it by the container load.  We are talking projects announced in one year, forecast to end in a couple and they only get around to tendering the thing at the end of the two years.  Delays and massive cost over-runs are routine.

Things would be a lot clearer if the provincial finance minister issued a mid-year financial update in September as he should.  That’s halfway through the fiscal year.  As it is, he will say something in December.  If last year is any indication, he’ll toss a load of sheer bullshit into the public mix in the hopes of keeping people lined up at the counter spending cash for Christmas.

The we just have to keep an eye on crude prices.  Oil is still the biggest revenue source the provincial government has. Things are fine as long as oil stays where it is now.  But when the markets can show an eight dollar a barrel increase in as many days, they can equally show a drop if the factors come together in the right way.

If the provincial government plans to unleash a year of election spending at the same time as the markets start to sort themselves out, this could prove to be a very interesting year indeed, right up to the next provincial election.

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Some loveable turncoats

‘In Newfoundland politics,”  wrote Bill Rowe, “you haven’t lost your political virginity unless you’ve knifed your own party in the back and crossed the floor of the House of Assembly at least once.”

At the time he wrote that – 1984 – Rowe was a lawyer, columnist, radio show host and the author of the splendidly titled Clapp’s Rock and The Temptation of Victor Gallanti. he was also the former leader of the provincial Liberals, a job he lost in the wake of a political scandal involving leaked police reports.

In 1985, Rowe tried to run for Brian Peckford’s Conservatives.  He lost the nomination fight.

In 1993, he carried the Liberal banner in the provincial general election and got a solid drubbing by the local Conservative candidate.

Fast forward a decade.  Conservative Danny Williams tried to lure Rowe back into politics as a Conservative.  Rowe held out for an appointment to a job as Williams’ personal ambassador to Hy’s.  He took up the job in 2004 and held it for a few months before packing it in to return to St. John’s.

Rowe is now touring the country, incidentally, flogging what is purported to be an insider’s account of things he was outside the room for during that brief sojourn on the Rideau.  According to reports, the mainlanders are lapping it up. The softcover book has hit the Globe and Mail’s hardcover best-seller list.

You could not make this stuff up if you tried.

One of his regular talk show callers these past few years has been a decent fellow named George Murphy.  He has garnered some local notoriety for his ability to forecast retail gasoline prices with some accuracy.  Murphy is a staunch supporter of the government’s gas price-fixing scheme, among other things.

Murphy’s gained some extra notoriety lately by being the latest local politician to carry on the fine tradition of crossing the floor to the other side.  Murphy very loudly and very publicly renounced the Liberal party and headed for the New Democrats. Murphy was cross that the Liberals did not hire him for a job, picking instead Craig Westcott, a journalist of some considerable experience who did a bit of work for the provincial Conservatives and whose only foray as a candidate was for the Harper Conservatives in opposition to Danny Williams’ Family Feud in 2008.

So far only one local journalist -  Telegram editor Brian Jones - has accurately captured the essence of former Liberal Murphy’s current position, that of New Democratic candidate in a by-election likely to be called next week for a seat formerly held by the Conservatives:

…Murphy didn’t like it that a Tory became a Grit, so he bolted. Murphy, a former Liberal, is now an NDPer.

He is seeking support from NDP members to win the party’s candidacy in the upcoming byelection in the district of Conception Bay East-Bell Island.

But by Murphy’s own logic, NDP rank-and-filers should be aghast. A former Liberal is tainting their pure gene pool, as it were.

Perhaps Murphy knows something the rest of us don’t — that changing parties is unacceptable for some people, i.e., Westcott, but entirely acceptable for others, i.e., himself.

Maybe I’m missing something, but I’ve read that Telegram story three times and I’m still left thinking, let me get this straight…

You could not make this stuff up if you tried.

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The Traffic Report, November 1 - 5

No, folks, this is not a summary of Cecil Haire’s morning traffic reports on CBC Radio.

But something is going on all the same. Traffic in the past couple of weeks is up.  It’s currently running at 18% higher than the same time last month.

Here are the Top 10 stories, as determined by what people are reading:

1. Thin-skinned or what? (Arguably the first time a one sentence post linked to an article on Sarah Palin hit the top of the chart in this corner of cyberspace.)
2. Stop bullying
3. Lower Churchill:  Tshaukesh leads quiet resistance to the Old Man’s dream
4. Being negative
5. Smart politics versus not smart politics
6. Anger Management:  Conservative version
7. Keith Coombs:  financial genius and Lower Churchill:  more potato, potato [tie]
8. Rumours of his demise…
9. Court docket now online and Williams announces political exit plan [tie]
10. It gets better

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Shatner – F**k you

And the original

 

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Blaming liberals and the news media

You can find the Premier’s remarks at the annual Conservative Party fundraiser online at cbc.ca/nl.

He’s been down this road many times before but never this intensely.  And he finishes by telling us how much money the government spent.

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Drop-out drop detail

The 2008 report on schools from the provincial education department is a wealth of useful information on one of the most important government service areas.

Chapter 10 is about school leavers.  In light of the Statistics Canada report on drop-outs, it’s worth taking a closer look at the way the drop-out rate dropped in this province.

As we know from the Statistics Canada report, 19.9% of young people dropped out of school in Newfoundland and Labrador, on average, in the three years 1991-1993.  By 1996, that figure had declined to 16.7%.

By 2006, that number was down to 8.9%. The rate was lower in 2003, continued downward for the next two years and then jumped up in 2006. The current rate  - 7.4%  - is actually about what the rate was in 2005. The table is taken from the provincial government report.

Media reports indicate that a higher percentage of males than females dropped out in this province in 2009 (103% versus 6.6%). That’s a change from a decade and more ago when the male rate was dramatically higher.  According to CBC, “while rates have declined for both sexes, the rate of decrease was faster for men, narrowing the gap between the two.”

The provincial education department has another statistic, though.  It compares rural versus urban rates of school-leaving.  Here’s the provincial government table comparing the rates for all provinces and for the country as a whole.

This sort of statistic doesn’t bode well for economic development in rural Newfoundland and Labrador. And it doesn’t get any better when one considers the trend in the Eastern district, for example, that shows those graduating high school in rural areas are more likely than urban students to leave with a general pass.  n other words, they aren’t necessarily more likely to enter post-secondary education or training.

If a provincial government could only focus on one area in order to produce economic and social benefits to individuals and to the community as a whole, improving educational performance would be it.

Now it is interesting to pick up on comments on the other post on this report.  Both noted the possible influence of the cod moratorium in 1992 on the decline.  On the face of it, the answer seems to be that the moratorium did influence the rate.  Young people in rural areas, especially males, tended to leave school since they could make a living in the fishery or other similar work with a limited education.  Without the cod fishery they might have stayed in school.

Maybe.

The idea is worth exploring but the answer is likely to be more complex. Don’t forget that about 70,000 left Newfoundland and Labrador in the aftermath of the moratorium.  While the drop-out rate declined dramatically in the period between 1993 and 2005, the persistence of a high drop-out rate in rural Newfoundland  suggests there might be other factors at work.

Still, these numbers bear further consideration.

Especially considering the literacy and numeracy rates in the province.

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Williams’ shift sends Lower Churchill back to enviro drawing board for second time this year

As labradore has it, the panel conducting the environmental reviewing the Lower Churchill project is asking NALCOR  - the provincial government’s energy company - to submit a raft of new documentation now that the Premier has decided to completely revise the project.

Not surprising.

Not surprising at all.

Nor would it be surprising to find that both the panel and the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency are privately spitting nickels in frustration at the twists and turns they’ve gone through to deal with this project.

Last January, the panel explained to NALCOR that the company’s submissions up to that point didn’t justify the project, as presented.  You got it.  NALCOR could not justify the project.  They also couldn’t demonstrate things like the claimed greenhouse gas emission reductions.  That’s because they don’t have any customers to show how the hydro juice will actually displace fossil fuels used in electricity generation anywhere on the planet.

NALCOR spent eight months  - until August 2010 - revising and revamping stuff, sending it along to the panel and then out to the interested parties for detailed review.

The Innu picked up on the fact that NALCOR and the provincial government were now substantially revising the project – the smaller dam and a whole new transmission routing – and said exactly that in their response filed with the environmental review panel. 

Based on the Premier’s comments at the end of October, the panel had to get the whole thing sorted in order to comply with the panel’s terms of reference.  Specifically, they are asking NALCOR to document:

a.  Changes to the project description, construction (including schedule) and operation;
b.  Transmission interconnection lines;
c.  Changes to accommodation facilities;
d.  New cost estimates;
e.  New socio-economic data and timing, particularly employment, work scheduling approach, labour requirements, goods and services;
f.  Changes to reservoir clearing and impoundment and validity of model results (mercury, flow, ice modeling, etc.);
g.  Harmful alteration, disruption and destruction of fish habitat and implications for the proposed Fish Habitat Compensation Plan;
h.  Potential aquatic and terrestrial impacts;
i.  Traditional land use and Aboriginal issues;
j.  Any other relevant information.

This is going to take another year or two, at least and the whole review is going to get way more interesting. 

The project the panel has right now consists entirely of two dams and a connection back to Churchill Falls so the power can head out through Quebec.  The line to Soldier’s Pond, near St. John’s is entirely within the province so that isn’t part of the federal review. But that’s it.  All that NALCOR is pushing is the same project Brian Tobin pushed in 1998.

Until now, the line to Nova Scotia simply didn’t exist except as a political throw-away line.  Events of the past two months have changed all that.  If NALCOR really intends to ship power to Nova Scotia – as discussed just within the past week -  they will now have to lay that on the table, in detail.  There will also be new interested parties looking for a say in what happens in the line from Newfoundland to Nova Scotia and then maybe in whatever connections will happen in New Brunswick. An already complex project just got a whole lot more complex.

Don’t forget that this project was supposed to be under construction right at this moment.  NALCOR was supposed to sanction it in 2009. 

This latest bad news comes on top of other setbacks and a reminder of the biggest inconvenient truth about the legendary project. Substantial chunks of the Innu community aren’t happy with the project. And if that weren’t enough, an analyst at the Atlantic Provinces Economic Council thinks the province needs to get its fiscal house in order before thinking of adding at least $6.0 billion to the public debt load.

But perhaps the biggest setback of all for Danny Williams’ plan was one entirely of his own making.  After rejecting a proposal to develop the deal with Hydro-Quebec and Ontario Hydro, Williams then spent five years  - entirely in secret - trying to get HQ to take an equity stake in the project. He even offered to set aside his political commitment that he would only sign a Lower Churchill deal if HQ provided redress for the 1969 contract.  HQ just wasn’t interested:  they’d already moved on to other big projects.

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It gets better

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Sign of the future?

The opposition leader makes a splash with a simple call for earlier breast cancer screening for women.

The cabinet minister issues a long-winded news release reciting all the stuff his department is doing about breast cancer.

And it predictably finishes with a recitation of how much money the current administration has spent.

Which one was more effective?

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The importance of staying competitive

The Government of Ontario is creating 75 scholarships aimed at attracting top graduate students to Ontario universities.

Meanwhile, in another province, the university not only faces declining enrolment but also a freeze on funding for graduate students thanks  - apparently - to some management cock-ups rather clumsily spun as a good thing.

On the upside, the provincial government’s research and development corporation announced on Wednesday it would provide funding over three years to support work by eight doctoral, 12 masters and two bachelors students at Memorial University.

“World-class research is at the heart of Memorial University and I’m delighted that 22 of our students have received RDC’s Ocean Industries Student Research Awards,” said Dr. Christopher Loomis, Vice-President (Research), Memorial University. “Graduate students are an essential part of Memorial’s research success. The competitive funding provided by this scholarship program will enable them to conduct research that is important to Memorial University and critical to the future prosperity of the province.”

 

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Smart politics versus not-smart politics

In his battle against Reform-based Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper over Equalization, Reform-based Conservative Party leader Danny Williams didn’t have any political friends left.

Not surprisingly, Williams failed.

Ditto, the family Feud, known to some as the ABC campaign.

Senior political reporter and columnist Chantal Hebert made the point rather bluntly in her column in the Wednesday Toronto Star:

At the federal-provincial table, Williams is ultimately a loner.

You can see that very point as far back as October 2004. Remember the famous storm-out?  Well, let’s just say it had less to do with negotiations and more to do with a potential dressing down from other Premiers who had finally cottoned on to the federal transfer deal Williams was trying to finagle.

By contrast, though, Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall just got Stephan Harper’s Conservatives to turn down a hostile take-over bid by BHP of Potash Corporation.

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Drop-out rate continues 20 year decline

The drop-out rate for Newfoundland young people reached 7.4% between 2007 and 2010, according to Statistics Canada, down from an average of 19.9% in the period between 1991 and 1993.

The rate fell most dramatically in the period between 1993 and 2005 when the rate fell from 19.9% to between 8% and 10%.

That’s also the period when Newfoundland and Labrador eliminated denominationally-based education. Prior to educational reform under the Liberal administrations of Clyde Wells and later Brian Tobin, control of education as divided among seven Christian denominations.

The provincial government eliminated denominational education in 1997 following two referenda.  In the second vote, an overwhelming majority of those holding educational rights voted to abolish the system.

Education has a smaller share of the current provincial budget than it was in 1995.

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“Get fiscal house in order” first: analyst

An analyst with the Atlantic Provinces Economic Council told a conference in St. John’s that the provincial government  “has to get its fiscal house in order” before it makes an investment in any version of the Lower Churchill energy megaproject.

Fred Bergman said the province’s net debt to gross domestic product ratio remains among the highest in Canada at 41%.

Bergman is quoted by the Telegram [page four story, Wednesday November 3, not on line] as saying:

“Get your fiscal house in order, get your debt-to-GDP ratio down, get your budget balanced and then you can afford to tackle something like that.”

The Williams administration ran a half billion cash deficit in 2009 and budgeted for a $900 million cash shortfall in 2010.  Budget projections released in spring 2010 do not include any forecast for balanced budgets.

Finance minister Tom Marshall has previously consistently rejected balanced budget legislation.

In its various configurations, the Lower Churchill project could cost anywhere from $6.0 billion to $14 billion.

The following charts show the provincial government’s liabilities and net debt.  The vertical axis is in millions of Canadian dollars.

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Related:  “The Fragile Economy: staying the course”

NL offshore drilling ban decision rests with prov gov #oilspill #cdnpoli

The federal government couldn’t impose a ban on offshore drilling in the Newfoundland and Labrador offshore area unless the provincial government agreed, according to briefing notes for the federal natural resources minister obtained by PostMedia.

Under the 1985 Atlantic Accord, such a decision would require the agreement of the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador. A federal-provincial agreement with Nova Scotia contains similar provisions.  In the absence of such an agreement, the Government of Canada has reportedly entered into informal talks with other coastal provinces where offshore drilling could take place.

Newfoundland and Labrador is also different from other provinces in that its provincial jurisdiction does not end at the low water mark.  Under the 1949 Terms of Union, the provincial government governs the same territory as it did prior to Confederation. Court decisions have upheld the view that this extends to three miles offshore, the territorial sea limit recognised internationally in 1949. As a result, the provincial government in newfoundland and Labrador has exclusive jurisdiction on offshore drilling within three miles of the shoreline.

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Related:  Drill, baby!  Drill! – Dunderdale rebuffs concerns about border, offshore oil spills

Keith Coombs: financial genius

Ah, friends, it seems like only yesterday that Keith Coombs wanted to be deputy mayor of St. John’s.

And what, pray tell, was one of his most outrageous claims?

In his campaign ads, Coombs says the city is expected to have an annual surplus of $11 million for each of the next four years, for a total surplus of $44 million, and that he wants the money to go back to the taxpayers.

Voters must have had a premonition that Keith was full of crap.

Turns out that $11 million surplus next year will be a five million dollar shortfall. 

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Being too negative

cbc.ca/nl takes a look at negativity and local politics in a report by provincial affairs reporter David Cochrane and a commentary by Randy Simms.

They are both worth checking out if for no other reason than they raise issues that are worth considering and worth debating.

A couple of quibbles:

First, negativity of this type isn’t something new.  In the current local version, this penchant for attacks goes back about a decade.

Second, Randy Simms is in the right neighbourhood when he mentions the recent mid-terms in the United States.  Politics in this province for the past decade or so demonstrate the very effective use of American political techniques  - including an ideological element - on a local level.  The lines used are similar to ones employed elsewhere in Canada, provincially and federally, and in the United States. While they use paid advertising in other places, here the slagging is done using other vehicles. 

When you are done with the video stuff, pop over to the Telegram and check the Wednesday editorial.  It points out the hefty price the Williams administration paid for a recent decision about a Facebook comment:

Why? Well, ask yourself what the circulation numbers are for one person’s Facebook page. Maybe hundreds; sometimes, thousands. In Pardy Ghent’s case, 1,109. 

Then, ask yourself this question: what’s the combined circulation of the Canadian Press, Yahoo News, MSN.ca, Troy Media, and the Reuters news service, just to name a few?
All of those sites carried the story of Pardy Ghent’s firing, under the not-so-pleasant headline “Facebook flap over Danny Williams’ penis.” 

It made newspapers and websites across Canada and the United States.

It even made the website of the India Times, half a world away. 

Yep — Skinner took a small fire, and unsuccessfully tried to put it out by pouring on the largest amount of gasoline he could find. 

Ignoring the status line would have made the whole thing a 15-second wonder that reflected far more poorly on Pardy Ghent than on anyone else. 

Instead of a handful of people shaking their heads, there are now thousands. Well done.

Two additional points:

First, the Telegram’s account of costs don’t really go far enough.  The CBC news stories and all the comments on this issue that are circulating under these and related media stories point out the extent to which negativity is now an issue that can cut the ruling Conservatives at least as sharply as it cuts anyone else.

Going negative this early definitely has its costs.

Second, Shawn Skinner didn’t do this on his own. Well, odds are he didn’t.  Like Kevin O’Brien, he was likely following orders.

Take out of all that what you will.

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*edits for caps, spelling and sentence structure

Stop bullying

Rick Mercer (via CBC NL)

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The October Traffic - Horrorshow

14,113 visitors up from 12,500 the month before.

20,039 page views.

Despite the drop in air temperature, October was a hot month at Bond Papers.

You might be surprised at what all those people were reading.  Here are the Top 10 posts for the month,based on the number of visitors:

1. Court docket now online
2. Williams announces political exit plan
3. Campaign Sign, Two
4. Municipal affairs minister passes away after lengthy illness
5. Campaign signs:  Outrage
6. Best Political Blog in Canada! Right Here!
7. The weight of office
8. When the rubber meets the paper mill
9. Jane Taber – Twit
10. Air Canada, the Maple Leafs and Sucking

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Anger Management: Conservative version

Former premier Roger Grimes makes some solid observations in the Tuesday Telegram about the idea of building Muskrat Falls on its own, as the latest iteration of the Lower Churchill goes.

“It makes ... absolutely no sense to finance the smaller part of the project that, of and by itself, can’t make any money,” he said.

What’s way more interesting in the current context, though, can be found in the comments section. 

Just note the number of comments, likely all Conservative partisans, attacking Grimes personally for having the temerity to offer an opinion. Notice how many of them appeared before 8:00 AM.  That is some serious anger-management issues going on there, people.

As you read the comments – if you can stomach them – remember that this is polling month.  As usual, people in the province are being treated both to an orchestrated series of happy-news announcements.  But what makes this month stand out is the connection to the assaults by the Fan Club. 

The Fanboys.

The Greek Chorus.

The Pitcher Plants.

The last time this crew deployed in such an organised and indignant manner was when some people dared to notice that the Premier had heart surgery. Their anger is aimed, not surprisingly at Liberals and if reporters step into the line of fire the media will be added to the list.

Anger  - and we are talking some major-league bile here - aimed at liberals and the news media.

Sounds just a wee bit familiar.

Dontcha think?

It gives a whole new meaning to the term anger management.  The real question, though, is will the strategy that worked before continue to work just as well the next time.

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