Have yourself a tacky little Christmas

So far Danny Williams’ parting finger to the taxpayers of Newfoundland and Labrador is going over like a fart in church.

People are showering something but it isn’t the love Danny wanted.

For some reason, normal people don’t like the idea of the guy taking a war memorial and using it as the backdrop for his political Christmas cards for a job he just vacated.

And by all the signs people in the province are genuinely fracked off about it.  In this corner, the post from Monday rocketed to wind up as the top post of the past 24 hours by a two-to-one margin.  Over at CBC’s online story, the two negative-for-Danny options  - “It’s inappropriate” or “It’s disrespectful” -  are together getting about 2,000 of the 4453 votes that were cast up until about 1845 hours local time.  More people have actually chosen the supposedly neutral choice – “It doesn’t matter to me” – than have selected the Danny-loving choice.

Danny’s fanboys are more than a bit peeved that this story is out there and that people aren’t loving the Old Man as much as they are supposedly supposed to.  They are trying every line from “it’s no biggie” to blaming the media. There’s some original stuff for ya.

The poor little darlings are clearly in a lather. 

And well they should be.

Their hero, the fellow for whom they have embarrassed themselves in public for almost a decade, frigged off on them with hardly any notice. One minute he was there;  the next he was in Florida soaking up the rays.  One minute they were happily clicking away at the VOCM question of the day, the next thing the talking points are gone and  he’s buggered off  leaving them to deal with this little embarrassing piece of egotistical excess. You’d be fried too is suddenly you were the guy at his high school reunion sporting at mullet at age 50.  That’s what the fanboys are looking like these days.

But truthfully there’s really no surprise at the tacky choice for Christmas cards.

Really.

Anyone on the Premier Danny Christmas card list got at least one other Yule-turd greeting besides the one they got this year. In 2009, the card  was a piss-poorly photoshopped shot of Hisself near Churchill Falls.

Remember the big Atlantic Premier’s meeting there last fall?  Danny waging war against the evil foreigners?  Invoking the spectre of Churchill Falls?

If you didn’t know better, you might be fooled into believing this shot was taken at the same time.  Take a closer look at the shot, the lighting and the edges of the Danny-figure and you can see he was cropped and dropped. The effect winds up looking like John Wayne walking into the sunset on a Vietnamese beach at the end of The Green Berets.

The fanboys can only hope this is the least embarrassing little mess the Old Man left behind.

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Connie Leadership 2011

Here’s your scorecard for the upcoming rumble.

This should also help you cut through the noise likely to come from all sorts of sources.

A.  Who will run…

• Joan Burke – According to some accounts her crew started working the phones the Danny Danny announced. She’s also reputed to have had a war chest ready to go for a couple of years.
• Jerome Kennedy – The perceived front-runner;  officially playing coy and a wee bit reluctant but that’s just for show.  Rumour on the Hill is that he’s got cash in the bank and a bunch of loyalists salted away in short-term jobs all through the Confed Building.  Jerome!’s been working on his image a bit here and there, suggesting he’s got someone coaching him. 
• Darin King – Hoping to come up the middle between two polarising candidates with gigantic negatives.  Bland might work.

B.  Who is likely to run…

• Kevin O’Brien – Premier Fairity  - below - may be the only person who thinks he should run. Likely wants to take the shot he gave up in 2000 to let Danny take the job.
• Steve Kent  - Officially, he won’t comment until after Christmas.  Expect him to give it a run to raise his profile. Someone registered draftstevekent.ca on November 29 when Danny’s political corpse wasn’t even chilly, let alone cold.

C.  Who might run…

• Shawn Skinner – Principal Skinner is one of those guys who might take it in his head to run but who is more likely to back someone like Kennedy.  His appointment to Natural Resources suggests he’ll be responsible for smacking the Muskrat Falls thing every now and then to make it seem like the Norwegian Blue is just kipping.
• Tom Osborne – the member that works is rumoured to be eyeing a job as the federal member that works.  His name still comes up and can’t be completely discounted.

D.  Who you can count out…

• Kathy Dunderdale – Headed for retirement anyway.  She got beatoned as a thank you on her way out the door for her loyal, if uninspiring, service to the Old Man.
• Tom Marshall – Ditto on the retirement thingy.  He hedged his bets for appearances sake during a recent scrum. 
• Tim Powers – A candidate in the imagination of people in Ottawa.  If, by some bizarre turn of events Powers actually runs, he’ll likely drag up the arse end of the pack slightly ahead of Kent and O‘Brien.
• Doug Moores
• Rick Hillier – the first name that cropped up  people anxious to have the racket start.  He’s got too much else on the go.  And besides, why would he give up a national profile for that gig?
• Senator Beth Marshall – Set for life and with a steady paycheque until she turns 75.  Would you give that up?
• Senator Fabian Manning – Seen in the Avalon Mall on Monday afternoon doing some shopping but as with Beth, why would any sane person give up the sinecure?

E.  Sentimental Favourite

Right in!  Right on!  Rideout!

 

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*   Edited for typos and to clarify some sentences.

 

Catch-Update:  The mighty Ceeb cornered Darin King and got him on the record giving the standard line candidates use before they are ready to it over announce. Someone also asked Clyde Jackman and while Jackman said he’s going to take the holidays to mull over a leadership run, expect him to announce he is leaving politics.

Williams’ disgraceful Christmas cards

Danny Williams is sending out a batch of Christmas cards – presumably at taxpayers expense – identifying himself as the Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador even though he quit the job last week.

What’s worse, the tasteless cards feature a shot of Williams from his good bye news conference using a war memorial in the Confederation Building lobby as a backdrop for his face.

The text inside the card reads:

"I have been so honoured to be your leader for the past seven years. Thank you for your continued support. I will miss you all and will never forget you. I wish you a very Merry Christmas, peace, happiness and good health. Danny Williams, Q.C., Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador."

Williams is shown standing in front of the display holding the province’s official copy of the Book of Remembrance for Newfoundlanders and Labradorians who paid the supreme sacrifice during the First and Second World Wars. 

The book is a duplicate of one on display in the Memorial Chamber in the Peace Tower in Ottawa.
They are described officially at the Veterans Affairs Canada website:

The Newfoundland Book of Remembrance commemorates the men and women of Newfoundland who gave their lives in defence of freedom during both the First and Second World Wars – before Newfoundland became a province of Canada on April 1, 1949. Those listed are from all three branches of the military – the Navy, Air Force and Army. The book includes memorials to First World War campaigns, including Gallipoli and Beaumont-Hamel, and Second World War campaigns, including North Africa and Italy, and Northwest Europe. The Newfoundland Book of Remembrance, containing more than 2,300 names, was installed in the Memorial Chamber of Parliament in 1973, and a replica was placed in the Confederation Building in St. John's.

Since the photo appears to be from Williams’ announcement, the cards could only have been prepared after he knew he was leaving the job.

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Tory support drops sharply

Support for the province’s ruling Conservative Party dropped by about 10 percentage points in Danny Williams’ last month in office according to a poll released on Monday by the provincial government’s official pollster.

Corporate Research Associates reported that 75% of decided respondents to a survey said they would vote Conservative if an election were held tomorrow.

CRA reported that the undecided, do not know and will not vote categories amount to 31%.  In itself, that’s the largest UND reported by Corporate Research Associates in the past five years.  It’s also up dramatically from the 19 percent reported in August.

When you adjust CRA’s party support number to show as a percentage of all respondents, the Tory vote drops to 51.8% from the 61.8% reported three months earlier. The graph above gives the CRA polling results since the last provincial election, adjusted to show the responses as a percentage of all respondents.  The reddish-brown line shows the actual Conservative vote share in the last provincial election – 43% - shown as a share of eligible voters.  That’s the same basis on which CRA polls.

Don’t get overly excited by the gap between the two lines though.  It illustrates the extent to which CRA’s polling is out of whack. 

Except for a couple of odd drops or climbs (November 2008, February 2010 and August 2010), the Conservative support has been declining steadily since CRA’s first post-election poll. The drop overall has been from 67% in November 2007 to 52% three years later. There’s even a bizarro period in the middle where the party support was within fractions of a percentage point for nine months consistently.

If you accept the drops and spikes, the Tories have dropped from 67 to 52 since February 2010.

There are a few things to bear in mind when looking at CRA polling numbers.  First, it is well established that the provincial government organizes its political communications to influence the outcome of the quarterly poll.  Second, as the actual 2007 election result shows, CRA also gives poll results that are significantly different from actual election experience.  In 2007, CRA’s results show the Conservative vote to be much higher than it was on election day and radically underrepresented the “will not vote” by approximately 20 percentage points.

Even allowing for those considerations, the Tories appear to have experienced a dramatic decline in voter support in a relatively short span.  Neither the Liberals nor the New Democrats picked up the disaffected vote, apparently.

Nonetheless, this poll shows the extent to which the Conservatives were bleeding support even before Danny Williams announced his departure.  What happens in the 10 months to the next provincial election will hinge on developments over the next five to six months.

The Conservatives will pick a new leader and bring down a new budget.  They also face labour and other problems across the province.  A significant number of voters in the province look like they have decided to wait and see what happens.

Keep your eyes fixed on the February polling period.

CRA’s news release was not available on line as of 1430 hours Newfoundland Daylight Savings Time.

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The Cable Atlantic solution

They say that you can never go home again but Danny Williams’s parting gift to the people of Newfoundland and Labrador seems to be more than a massive guarantee they’ll bear an ever greater public debt than the crushing one they carry now.

The guy who made his fortune delivering Detroit television stations to townies just couldn’t resist adding some cable to the deal.

Seems that Nalcor, the government-owned energy monopoly Williams created is now promising the people of Labrador that if they go along with his plan to bring Labrador power to townies, they will get cable.

Now to truly understand just exactly what this little bait and switch deal is really all about, recall that Danny Williams once promised, in writing, that

[c]onsistent with our energy policy objectives, a Progressive Conservative government will make use of the hydroelectric potential of the Lower Churchill and any electricity that can be recalled or reclaimed from the Upper Churchill to accomplish the following priorities:

•   Promote industrial development and meet domestic energy demand in Labrador and then on the Island of Newfoundland. [Emphasis added]

But that promise went out the window right as soon as Williams got into the business of trying to build his debt-laden legacy. They’ve been offering cash for the past couple of years for people to study small hydro projects as an alternative to powering these coastal towns with diesel.

If the Old Man and his hand-picked successor get their way, power lines from Muskrat Falls will run right by communities now served by diesel generators.  Power lines will run by the towns and take that Labrador power off to St. John’s and down into Nova Scotia, but none of it will go to the people closest to the dam, if it is built.

So, as it turns out that promise about using Labrador power for Labradorians is headed for the same dustbin that holds the one about only developing the Lower Churchill with Hydro-Quebec if there was redress for the 1969 deal.  As it turned out, Williams spent five years of his seven in office trying to get HQ to take an ownership stake without redress.  Set redress to one side is the way Premier Kathy Dunderdale described it last year.

What was that some famous politician said once about greatest frauds and unkept promises?

Anyway, …

The people in different parts of Labrador are none too pleased about this idea, apparently.  You can tell because there are suddenly Internet and telephone cable lines in the mix for the Lower Churchill.  The existing lines in Goose Bay are apparently at capacity and can’t handle any more subscribers.

Only a handful of years ago, back when the Old Man’s party was cutting a deal to subsidize some private sector cable companies, the cost of adding the lines to Labrador was something they needed to study.  And at a cost of $80 million or so back in 2006, it seemed to be a bit much, apparently because the provincial government couldn’t manage to step up.  Billions in public infrastructure but no cash for a Labrador cable line.

And then in 2009, Danny Williams was mongering any scare he could find just to sling a power lines through a World Heritage site.  The cost of going around the park was about $100 million according to Williams, and that was too much since it might jeopardize granny’s heart surgery or some such foolishness. 

But now – suddenly – they can find the cash.

If…that is.

Even though fibre optic lines would be a completely separate thing from the Nalcor project, government is now talking it up.  Maybe they are counting on the gullibility of the people of the Big Land.

Maybe they should think again.

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The end of history

From the Telegram’s Saturday edition, comes a provocative idea from another opinion piece:

If Churchill Falls is the alpha and omega of provincial politics, what happens now?

How does a political culture evolve once it has reached the promised land, where have-not is no more?

Mr. Williams did not change the province’s political culture so much as he embodied it. And for the past forty years, that culture has been predicated on the politics of anticipation.

For two generations, Newfoundlanders have waited for political deliverance from the injustices of the past.

This anticipation created a political teleology so deeply ingrained that it’s hardly recognized, let alone questioned. The unspoken assumption has always been that Newfoundland and Labrador is not just a place but a time: it’s always on the cusp of going somewhere, becoming something, fighting someone.

To be a Newfoundlander is to know in your bones that the next big announcement is just around the corner, because one day the sun will surely shine.

Being Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador has meant never having to say you’re sorry, because suffering have-not status and Ottawa’s perfidy justifies doing whatever is necessary, from hauling down a national flag to slandering opponents as traitors and betrayers.

Yet if politics has meant struggle, what happens when the struggle is won?

Historian Jerry Bannister comes up with a poser.

After all, Labrador hydro-electric power is the political equivalent of paradise on Earth in Newfoundland and Labrador. 

It’s something that is always just around the next bend.

It’s the better tomorrow we have to be ready for.

So what happens now that we are supposedly at that point in history?

What’s next?

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Another Muskrat Falls sceptic

Add talk show host Randy Simms to the pile of people who now appreciate that the Lower Churchill announcement wasn’t about a deal to get the thing done.

His column in the Saturday Telegram (not online) couldn’t have been any plainer:

Premier Danny Williams did much the same thing, declaring, "Today will go down in history as the day that finally eclipses that day back in
1969 when the Upper Churchill Contract was signed."

Really?

…

I think the spectacle we saw at the term sheet signing was more
political than practical. It was done for the benefit of the home
audience.

And it only took a couple of weeks.

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It’s not sexism

It’s just more of Bob Wakeham’s usual bullshit.

Yvonne Jones became leader of the Liberal Party through acclamation, not a bonafide leadership convention. …

Lorraine Michael had a leadership contest with a political nobody, and won her party’s leadership in a proceeding  in which a mere 100 or so delegates cast ballots, not exactly a history-making, barn-burner of a race.

…

If there are cheers to be hollered from inside the ranks of those who have diligently fought the good fight for women, or if Newfoundlanders wish to pat themselves on the back for an enlightened view of gender equality, then I would suggest the appropriate time, the most meaningful time, would occur when and if women have fought it out tooth and nail in the kind of process that have elevated men to roles of governance.

Meanwhile, Bob makes no observation about how his recently departed hero got his political job.

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Surprise Traffic, 29 Nov to 3 Dec

Betcha can’t guess what the top post of the week was?

If you thought the Old Man’s going away present was it, you can guess again.

Here are the top posts at Bond papers from last week based on what people read the most.

1. NL Wikileaks References Decoded
2. No US market for Lower Churchill power:  deputy premier
3. All we want is fairity
4. [Tie]  An Ibbitson Inanity Hat Trick and Energy Analyst doubts Muskrat Falls economics and Introducing Premier Kathy Dunderdale
5. Government by Fernando
6. Introducing Premier Dunderdale:  patronage and the Public Tender Act
7. Why he’s heading south
8. [tie]  Hubris and Separated at birth: delusions edition
9. [tie] Kremlinology 7: desperate in the Straits and The politics of history (reprint)
10. [tie]  Premier Fairity and Premier Doug Moores

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Budget consultation farce starts early

The budget consultation farce is starting early this year.

Last year, and the year before the farce started in January.

Doesn’t matter:  major budget decisions are made before Tom Marshall hits the road.

Fool ‘em  once, shame on you.

Fool ‘em twice, shame on them.

So what is it for fool ‘em seven times in a row?

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The politics of history (reprint)

This post first appeared as a column in the old Sunday Independent in 2004

Your humble e-scribbler posted at Bond Papers in July 2005 along with a few extra comments, including this one:

Reviewing the column now about 18 months after I wrote it, the only thing I would disagree with is the conclusion: I was wrong. People here don't seem to tire of having the same carpet threads being pushed in front of them again and again. Actually, I'd have to admit that over the past 18 months we have seen old ideas and old threads being sold time and again at their original price, marked up to account for inflation.

In light of this period of change in provincial politics, it’s worthwhile to take another look at how things looked like just six years ago:

The politics of history

History is a powerful thing in Newfoundland and Labrador politics.

In his victory speech a few weeks ago, premier-elect Danny Williams pledged that Newfoundlanders and Labradorians had voted to seize control of their destiny using words eerily reminiscent of Smallwood, Peckford and Tobin. "There will be no more giveaways. The giveaways end right here and right now!"

Why are we stuck on this rhetorical merry-go-round?

One reason is that political leaders take a Calvinist approach to history. As Calvin told his stuffed tiger Hobbes many years ago, people reinvent history to suit modern prejudices and to fit modern needs. We spin our history, old and new, reweaving the threads of fact to suit the immediate need. Tories blame the Liberals for job cuts in the early 1990s, conveniently forgetting the world recession, and the abysmal state of the province’s finances. New Liberals blame old Liberals for the Upper Churchill give-away. Nationalists blame foreigners for everything from the collapse of responsible government to current resource "giveaways", all the while forgetting that we have controlled our own destiny for most of the past 200 years.

The second reason is that spin seems to work. Politicians like to get elected. Brian Tobin and Brian Peckford won huge majority governments promising that one day the sun will shine, that we will be masters in our own house or that not one teaspoon of ore will leave the province. They hammered at the giveaways, vowing never again. At least in Peckford’s case, he stuck around long enough to make a decision, yet, as good as his intentions were in signing the Atlantic Accord, newer politicians have found in that deal their latest scapegoat.

The third reason is that politicians are people and people like sameness; it’s a human characteristic. Change in any form is often intimidating. For politicians in a province that has experienced relatively little change throughout its history, more of the same seems like the answer to everything, especially if you want to get elected.

The fourth reason is that there is a certain expectation that everything in the province is government's responsibility. For most of our history, Newfoundland and Labrador has been a top-down place. Churches and politicians ran things. The churches handled schools, salvation and morality. The government ran everything else, from job creation to the dole. If voters expect you to walk on water, and you don't have a better idea, politicians found it easier to take a step or blame someone else for the supposed failure, if they wanted to get elected.

History seems to push politicians to more of the same, but ironically, history is about change. And as the Newfoundland and Labrador electorate changes, they are getting better able to spot the same carpet being sold to them time and again.
The choice for the new crop of politicians elected last month is whether to spin history for immediate, and ultimately short-lived, gains. Or use history - our experience, our culture - as one tool to guide substantive changes in and for Newfoundland and Labrador. In eight years time, they may find that many of the changes they hoped for like massive new industries will still be little more than the fodder for someone else's rhetoric.

The four factors just mentioned, though, are all within their power to change.

For a politician to change those in Newfoundland and Labrador would be something truly historic.

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Premier Dunderdale: TARFU

As part of the little series of reminders about the new Premier, here’s one of your humble e-scribbler’s favourites, from October 2010:

She told an audience in Grand Falls-Windsor that “[i]t is probably wiser not to share information because people don ‘t understand the analysis that has to go into it once a proposal comes up, you have an obligation to do an analysis on it.”

Yes folks, apparently the rest of us are not capable of comprehending the analysis that officials routinely feed to Kathy Dunderdale to help make her the genius that she is.

Uh huh.

Right.

The rest of us didn’t expropriate a frackin environmental nightmare in Grand Falls-Windsor and then neglect to tell people about it until way after.

 

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Separated at birth: delusions edition

Vanity Fair’s got Randy Quaid.

Paul Wells decides to go to two objective sources to sum up Danny Williams.

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Williams approval plummets: Angus Reid poll

A new poll by Angus Reid shows public approval in Newfoundland and Labrador for  Danny Williams’ performance as premier fell from 80% in February 2010 to 67% in November.

That’s an interesting detail buried in the release from Angus Reid.  Most media outlets apparently have taken the company’s news release and not looked at the attached research report.

The release lede notes that Williams topped the list of all premiers with Saskatchewan’s Brad Wall coming second. The first sentence of the analysis section states that while impressive, “the overall approval rating for Williams in Newfoundland and Labrador is now 11 points lower than it was at the end of 2009.”

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Hubris

On Friday, Danny Williams will head to Government House and resign as Premier, just as eight others have done before him.

Danny Williams was a superlative tactical politician, the likes of which one seldom sees anywhere in Canada and certainly one has seen very rarely in this province.

That was his singular strength and for seven years he campaigned relentlessly to sustain his cult of personality. That cult then gave him license to pursue his own political agenda free of any interference by a thriving, healthy democracy.

Craig Welsh, the townie bastard,  put it aptly:

And what I mean by "he can get away with doing it" is that the premier's popularity is such that he could strangle a baby in the middle of the Avalon Mall parking lot with the assembled provincial media in attendance and there would be people that would say the baby had it coming.

It’s a graphic image.

It is a disturbing image.

But it is an accurate description of Williams’ political influence.  He could say things that were patently,  demonstrably false and people would accept it unquestioningly. Supposedly cynical and sceptical media types were not immune from his powers of persuasion, despite what Danny liked to pretend. Some were known to leap to  defend him.

Danny Williams was right because he was popular and popular because he was right. That he could create and sustain that preposterous notion and have it accepted by so many people is the sum of his political genius.

That was no mean accomplishment.  Danny Williams ranks with the likes of Joe Smallwood, W.A.C. Bennett and Maurice Duplessis.  Anyone who looks on that accomplishment  - cultist worship 40 years after the last of the old demagogues held power – cannot fail to be impressed.  That Williams was able to spread that cult of absurdity to the national level amongst business, academic, editorial and political leaders in a G-8 country at the start of the 21st century is truly astounding.  

Instead of recognising that stunning achievement, people are crediting Danny Williams with a bizarre range of things; but the list, whether compiled at home or across the country, breaks down this way.

• They credited him for things he didn’t do:  Williams promised a raft of things from openness and transparency in government to sound fiscal management.  He just didn’t deliver on any of them.
• They credited him for stuff other people did:  the oil and mining windfalls came as a result of deals put together by premiers before Williams. Of that $70 billion Williams talked about in his goodbye speech,  the lion’s share of it came from deals delivered by Clyde Wells, Brian Tobin and Roger Grimes.
• They credited him for stuff that hasn’t happened yet:  let’s see Hebron in action before anyone breaks open the champagne.  It will likely work out fine but both the earlier reviews of Hibernia or Churchill Falls turned out to be wildly inaccurate, albeit for different reasons.
• They credited him for stuff that doesn’t exist.  There is no deal to develop the Lower Churchill. What else can anyone say to that sort of thing except note that Williams had them all playing his tune more completely at the end than ever before?

The things that Williams did do, like a one time transfer payment from Ottawa in 2005, have been swollen by the cultist chanting to the point of absurdity. 

And what of Danny Williams’ future? 

Well, in all likelihood,  he and his accomplishments will go the way of other politicians’, including those long-ago strongmen in whose ranks he clearly belongs. There is an inky abyss, a vacuum that awaits them all.  It is a cross between Limbo and Purgatory, a living death for the egotistical and the once-mighty.  Where once throngs sang their praises, there is only silence.

Five days after Williams announced his resignation, people still cry for his departure.  Five weeks from now, they’ll be more concerned about Christmas credit card bills and if politics excites them, they’ll be watching the race to replace him.  Five months from now and the province’s election campaign will be well under way.

Five years from now, people will struggle to remember that guy who parted his hair down the centre of his head.  The collective amnesia on which Danny Williams built his cult of personality will swallow him as surely as it swallowed his predecessors.

Who the gods would destroy, they would first make proud.

 

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Other reading:  Robert Rowe makes the point as succinctly as anyone might in a letter to the Telegram.

Williams might have instilled some sense of pride, however defined, in Randy Simms and others, but no dear leader did that for me. I had it before Williams, during Williams, and I’ll have it after Williams. I have never suffered from any sense of inferiority or poor second cousinism to other Canadians.

True pride cannot be grafted onto a people in Kim Jong-Il style. It is not fostered by belligerence. It is not waving a flag (nor lowering it, for that matter) and it is not the jingle in your pocket. Rather it is a feeling in your guts — deep in your guts — and I’d like to think we have always had it. That’s a gift Premier Williams could not give me. What we did not have was wealth, and I suspect Simms has conflated these issues.

With my gratitude for the effort, I wish the premier a jingle in his pocket and good health in the future.

Update:  Edited to eliminate an awkward sentence.

Crude supplies sufficient to meet decade’s demand

Crude supplies available through OPEC will be sufficient to meet global demand through to the year 2020 according to international energy consultants Purvin & Gertz. 

“Robust supply increases from non-OPEC producers such as Russia, Kazakhstan, Canada, and Brazil will be mirrored by expected large production capacity increases from Angola, Nigeria, and Iraq,” Purvin & Gertz said. This will result in no appreciable change in OPEC's market share until after 2015. [from Penn Energy]

That growth in supply from Canada would be coming from Newfoundland and Labrador.

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The finance minister who loved deficits

Give finance minister Tom Marshall credit for one thing is nothing else. 

Tom told a CBC Radio Morning Show [audio file]audience in St. John’s on Wednesday the God’s honest truth about oil royalties and recent windfalls;  Danny didn’t do it.

Those royalties are a function of three things, according to Tom:

• price
• production, and
• the relative value of the dollar. 

And, sez, Tom, those are things the provincial government doesn’t control.  Regular readers of these e-scribbles will be familiar with the idea.

So there you have it, straight from an authoritative source:  Danny didn’t do it.

But the interview on Wednesday was also a chance for Tom to slip back into his regular routine of saying one thing that sounds sensible, all the while denying the insensible stuff he’s actually doing as finance minister.

He told CBC that:

"It would be a travesty if we don't use this windfall we have, this oil — which will be gone one day — if we don't use that to get rid of this massive debt that our people and our governments have accumulated," …

Only Tom Marshall could say that with a straight face. 

Don’t misunderstand:  not using the oil windfall to reduce the public debt burden in this province should be one of the provincial government’s main uses for the gigantic oil windfall.

The funny part is that the provincial government has been doing just the opposite of what Tom said.  He got the verb tense wrong and he ought to know it.  It is a travesty that the provincial government has not been using the oil windfall from the middle part of the decade to pay down the huge public debt. 

Not “would be”.

“Is”.

Tom Marshall, finance minister, has consistent refused throughout his entire term of office to accept any suggestion that would significantly reduce public indebtedness.  Marshall has been very clear about his desire to retain the right to overspend the public accounts free of any fetters:

I certainly would agree with fiscal responsibility legislation … but I'm not prepared to be locked in automatically to a balanced budget every year," he said [in April 2007].

The most he’d accept, apparently,  is a law that said balanced budgets might be an interesting idea.

Then Tom went right on jacking up spending whenever he could.  In fact, he boosted it up so high and so far that people have called the current financial state of the province as unsustainable.

Who said that?

Well, not just your humble e-scribbler.  There was – according to Marshall himself - an analyst for Moody’s bond raters who questioned the sustainability of public spending. Then there was a cabinet minister who muttered the word as he left cabinet.

And most recently, an analyst for the Atlantic Provinces Economic Council warned that the provincial government needed to tackle its massive debt before it started thinking about piling on even more debt for an energy megaproject.

That would, of course, be the massive increase in the public debt Tom Marshall and his colleague’s announced a week and a bit ago.

Tom Marshall:  debt fighter.

Or not.

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Rebellion!

NTV’s Michael Connors isn’t a flashy reporter but he is a solid performer, day-in, day-out.

He doesn’t work for the news outlet everyone loves to hate, but then again, NTV manages to score solid news hits time after time.

One of his reports on November 26 was an overview of the political landscape in the province after Danny Williams. It includes an observation that Kathy Dunderdale and the next Tory leader after her may well face a fractious caucus.

That’s true.  Danny Williams ran a tight ship not because he was a populist, as Memorial University professor Alex Marland claims, but because he ruled with an iron hand. 

People in Williams’ caucus – and it was his caucus, not a Conservative Party caucus - saw time after time his enthusiasm in attaching people for the tiniest of alleged transgressions and his willingness to go to war with Fabian Manning over what, apparently, was a mix-up in which manning brother was thinking of running federally.

With that gone and with the pent up egos of  a few really ambitious politicians about to display themselves for the first time in seven years, it all might wind up like some sort of Spring Break in Fort Lauderdale meets Mardi Gras. 

More likely, though, the problems won’t be with caucus discipline.  There might be people who start speaking a bit too freely about their own opinions as opposed to standing with their team. 

More likely, the problems will come as the campaign heats up and leading contenders start to smash into each other.  Things are pretty civilised so far, but then again what is happening right now is only a few notches above the simmering undeclared war that’s been going on for months.

Supposedly, prospective late-comer candidates are making calls gauging support while the ones who’ve already decided to run are starting to take the wrappers off their teams.  Those people are making calls on behalf of candidates like Joan Burke, she who has had a war chest for some time.

The object of her likely aggression will be Jerome Kennedy.  His coy comments about maybe not wanting to be the man who follows the man are just talk.  He’s got people salted away throughout government and it would be a complete surprise if he didn’t run at this point. 

There is still the outside possibility the Tories will try to emulate the Tobin coup in 1996, but odds are against it.  A crew got Tobin into place before potential leaders  like John Efford even started.  They could then head into a quickie election and carry on from there.

The Tories don’t seem to function like that.  In 1989, they opted for battle-axes to the sides of each other’s heads. Not a good move, as it turned out. The warfare lasted well into the next decade and really didn’t disappear until Danny showed up as the saviour in 2000.

In 1979, they had a large battle that ended successfully in several respects.  But that was a completely different caucus both in style and substance from the current Tory one. For one thing, the incoming leader could remake the party and take it to further success.

What does Danny’s replacement do?  There could be an anti-Danny who tries to disown his predecessor’s style and policies.  That’s got limited potential.  on the other hand there could well be a candidate who tries to pass himself or herself as the distilled essence of Danny;  all the anger but none of the depth.  Being more Danny than Danny isn’t likely to be a winnable strategy in some parts of the province either.

In any event, the whole thing will stay calm through Christmas.  Once the New Year arrives and the party figures out what it will do for a convention, all bets are off.

And in the end, the leadership will be about a simple proposition:  either the party changes or the voters will make a change for them.

- srbp -

The GWS Monthly Traffic

That upward traffic trend that started a couple of months ago continues to surge here at Bond Papers.

The number of visitors in October jumped 10% from September and then another 39% from October to November. Cumulatively, the jump is 53% from September to November. Page views are up by the same percentages.

What people were reading in November is an interesting mixture, to say the least. Just take a gander:

1. Court docket now online
2. Introducing Premier Kathy Dunderdale
3. Williams announces political exit plan
4. No US market for Lower Churchill power:  NL deputy premier
5. Kremlinology 20:  Who will replace Danny? and Shatner  - F**k You  [tie]
6. The Delusion of Competence
7. Williams on his political future
8. US and NL taxpayers might help subsidize costly big hydro project and Talking to Canadians [tie]
9. Thin-skinned or what? A one sentence post about Sarah Palin but evidently people thought it was about someone else.
10. Introducing Premier Dunderdale:  patronage and the Public Tender Act

 

- srbp -

Premier Doug Moores

Not like his name hasn’t been tossed around before as a potential Conservative Party leader.

The guy’s got bags of experience and he has a strong business and legal background.  Here’s the blurb that went with a 2001 provincial honour he received:

Doug Moores has served as a volunteer for 30 years, contributing locally, provincially, nationally and internationally. He has held leadership roles in numerous sports, arts and culture, health care, and business and development associations. He has made significant contributions to the Conception Bay North Development Association, the Harbour Grace Board of Trade and Baccalieu Chamber of Commerce, among others.

- srbp -