Politics and Numbers #nlpoli

Regular readers of these scribblers will recall that we’ve discussed some problems that people have with math. 

More specifically we’ve talked about numeracy problems, which is a little bit different.  That’s not just the arithmetic functions – add, subtract, multiply, divide – but also with things like logic and reasoning.  According to some sources, as many as two out of every three people in Newfoundland and Labrador lack the basic ability with math and logic to function in a modern society.

That gets to be a pretty scary idea when you realise the importance of numbers, counting, math proportions and all the other number-related ideas that we run into during the course of a day. 
Numbers play a big part in politics just like they do in everyday society.

One of your e-scribblers favourites was the notion of the provincial government being too poor to spend money on this that or the other. It’s a line the current crowd ruling the place used to toss out when ordinary people wanted something, even though the Conservatives always managed to come up with billions of public dollars for their own projects.

We are talking before 2008, mind you. Back then, Danny Williams got a lot of political mileage by making all sorts of wild and in some instances completely false claims about the state of the province’s finances.  When it came to federal transfer payments,  the level of false information was truly astounding.

Somewhere in the midst of all that your humble e-scribbler called one of the radio talk shows and threw some numbers on the table.  The regular callers, some of them fairly obvious government plants were spouting off all sorts of thoughts and ideas.  Around the same time, the guy who is currently the Bloc NDP member of parliament for St. John’s South-Mount Pearl ran a newspaper.  His “balance sheet” on Confederation contained a raft of information carefully selected to “prove” his predetermined conclusion.

Anyway, what your e-scribbler tossed out were then- current figures on what each government spent each year in total on public services.  The figures also came for different sectors.  They were delivered on a per capita basis.  That means the numbers showed how much the government spent for each person within the province.

Traffic to start the New Year by #nlpoli

1. More on the polling controversy
2. Effective Speechmaking
3. Whose camp is it anyway?
4. Seven Habits of Spectacularly Ineffective Politicians
5. SRBP at Seven
6. A challenge for Premier Dunderdale. (so far, not a peep from her)
7. What?  No equity stake?
8. Christmas goodies
9. The question of democracy in Newfoundland and Labrador
10. Williams’ old political promises:  Labrador

- srbp -

Separated at birth: little plumber version #nlpoli #cdnpoli

Nice to see former natural resources minister Shawn Skinner at an Ice Caps game Friday night.

The place was rocking especially as the Caps sloughed off the holiday stupor after the first period and started playing some hockey.

Ever notice that sometimes when you look at Shawn you can’t help but wonder where his cap went?

Seriously.

Shawn walks by.

You have the thought.

And then the stadium sound system starts blaring out the little plumber’s theme music.

Way friggin’ spooky.

Hop, you little plumber!

Hop, hop hop!

- srbp -

So much for senate reform #nlpoli #cdnpoli

Surely to mercy, if Prime Minister Stephen Harper was halfway serious about senate reform he could find someone else from Newfoundland and Labrador besides Norm Doyle to take up a senate seat.

Maybe Harper could have found someone other than a  guy who has been recycled more times than a university freshman’s one good shirt.

And even if senate reform wasn’t the reason for making the appointment, there has got to be someone in the province who has distinguished himself or herself in the arts world, academia, social policy activism or business who could take up the appointment.

If Norm Doyle got the job, the list must have been made up of Conservatives in Newfoundland and Labrador who hadn’t followed Danny Williams blindly and who could be reached without a séance.

The last thing the senate needs is another political hack taking up space, drawing a nice salary (on top of his public sector pension) and not doing very much else besides.

- srbp -

Williams’ old political promises: Labrador #nlpoli

Now that Danny Williams is a special advisor to a company with a nice little iron ore project in western labrador, maybe we should look at Danny Williams’ political promises about resource development.

Maybe we can get some idea of what advice he might give his new client.

In 2003, Williams promised that he would stop the give-aways of our resources.  Specifically, Williams promised that he would:

“Ensure nonrenewable [sic]resource developments benefit future as well as present generations by controlling the pace of development, promoting value-added product manufacturing, and spending royalties in ways that have long-term benefits across generations.”

That sounds like a good idea. Surely, he still believes in those commitments.

In 2003, Williams had some pretty firm ideas about what needed to happen:

“Developing a healthy and competitive mineral sector is a solid strategy for ensuring the Province's future prosperity. From the mining and processing of ore through to product manufacturing and assembly, the mineral sector can make a vital contribution to economic growth and employment in both urban and rural regions of the Province.

• A Progressive Conservative government will work with the industry to remove barriers to value-added activities, and to make the industry the most high-tech, productive and socially responsible in Canada.
• Our goal is to increase the activities associated with the processing of minerals in the Province and related business activities in the service and supply industries, such as construction, energy, engineering and environmental services, research and development, equipment parts and supplies, and financial and legal services.

A strong mineral industry for the Province will be built on progressive legislation that will:

• Require that ore concentrate be processed to a finished metal product in the Province where it is feasible to do so.
• Secure preferences for local companies in supplying goods and services to the industry, first choice of jobs for residents of the Province, and training when there are skill shortages.
• Link royalties and taxes to market prices and the extent of value-added activity undertaken in the Province.
• Provide for a detailed geological database compiled from geological surveys and mapping programs that identifies new mineral exploration targets, and makes geoscience information easily available to everyone.
• Support development of the Province's mining sector through tax incentives for prospectors and exploration companies.
• Ensure lands are returned to a natural state after completion of exploration and mining and quarry activities.

he certainly believed those things in 2007.  When the popular Premier sought re-election, Williams committed that he would

• continue to discharge our responsibilities to ensure mineral exploration, mining and mineral processing operations in our province return full and fair benefits to Newfoundland and Labrador
• work to attract secondary and tertiary mineral-based processing and manufacturing operations to Newfoundland and Labrador communities

… [and]

• work with Labradorians to achieve increased benefits from resource developments associated with mining operations in Labrador West and at Voisey's Bay and hydroelectricity development on the Lower Churchill River.

Guess that means Danny won’t be advising the company to ship unprocessed iron ore out of the province.

Get ready people of Labrador.

If Danny delivers on his old political promises, you will not be able to stand the prosperity.

Of course, now that he isn’t a politician any more there’s no guarantee he will still push for the same ideas he used to talk about.

Maybe someone should ask Williams about give aways and getting the most for the people of the province from their resources.

- srbp -

What? No equity stake? Alderon takes Danny Williams on board as “special advisor” #nlpoli

From the corporate news release issued on January 5:

Alderon is pleased to announce the appointment of Mr. Danny Williams, QC, former Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador, as Special Advisor to the Chairman of Alderon.  Mr. Williams served as Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador from October 2003 until November 2010, retiring from the position at a time when his government had an approval rating of over 80%.

Alderon is developing its 100% owned Kami Iron Ore Project located within the Labrador Trough, next to the mining towns of Wabush, Labrador City and Fermont. The Kami Project currently hosts an NI 43-101 indicated mineral resource of 490 million tonnes at 30.0% iron and an additional inferred mineral resource of 598 million tonnes at 30.3% iron contained within three zones: North Rose, Rose Central and Mills Lake. Up to an additional 18,000 m of infill drilling will be carried out during the 2012 Winter Drill Program with a view to upgrading a substantial portion of the currently defined inferred resource to the indicated resource category in preparation for the completion of a Feasibility Study in Q3 2012.

Based on the recently completed Rose Central Preliminary Economic Assessment ("PEA"), Alderon plans to commence commercial production in 2015 at a rate of 8 million tonnes per year ("Mtpa") at a concentrate grade of 65.5% iron. Alderon has initiated the Federal and Provincial Environmental Assessment Process and the registration documents include a provision to increase planned production from 8 Mtpa to 16 Mtpa as part of a second phase capital expansion.

Alderon expects the development of the Kami Project to provide significant economic benefits to Newfoundland and Labrador including the creation of over 1,500 full time jobs over a period of 20 years including 268 jobs directly at the mine and concentrator, 1,254 jobs indirectly for local service and support groups and 768 temporary jobs during construction. These job creation forecasts are based on the 8 Mtpa production scenario only.

...

It's only after all sorts of information that isn't about Danny Williams and his new appointment that you get a comment from Williams about his appointment.

From the way this news release is written, the most important thing to know about Danny is that he was Premier and left the job when he had a really high approval rating. 

Interesting.

So anyway, Williams will see some familiar faces at Alderon.

Brian Dalton is on Alderon board of directors.  Regular SRBP readers will remember him. Dalton is president and chief executive of Altius.  They made a proposal on financing the Lower Churchill.  And when a refinery project Dalton was backing had some financial difficulties no less a person than Danny Hisself dragged Kathy Dunderdale to the Middle East in an unsuccessful effort to scare up some investors.

Danny likely also knows John Baker, who is also a director of Altius among other things.

If Danny drops by the offices, he will likely smile when he sees Gary Norris, Alderon’s executive vice president of government and community affairs.  You see, Gary used to work for Danny as Clerk of the Executive Council.

Gary retired the same time Danny did.

The same day, even.

Try playing six degrees of separation in Newfoundland and Labrador. 

You’d be lucky to get two steps.

- srbp -

Seven Habits of Spectacularly Ineffective Politicians #nlpoli #cdnpoli

“Run government like a business” is an old line. 

Some people use it as a rallying cry for success and innovation. 

Others think of it as a recipe for disaster.

Regardless of which side of that argument you come down on, you can sometimes find value in applying ideas from one sector to the other. 

Take, for example, a list of seven habits attributed to business leaders who screw up published online at forbes.com recently.  It’s a variation on the Seven Habits of Highly Effective People except you learn positive lessons from the negative experiences that illustrate the bad habits. 

Included in the forbes.com column are some warning signs as well.  Those are indicators that while your business leader might not have the full-blown bad habit, he or she is headed in that direction.

And bear in kind:  some of the companies cited in the article were successful for a period of time or appeared to be quite successful. Over the longer term, though, things weren’t quite that good.

So what would happen if you took the seven habits of what forbes.com called unsuccessful business executives and applied them to politicians? Let’s have some fun:

Habit # 1:  They see themselves and their companies as dominating their environment.

Think of this as the idea that they can do no wrong, that everything they think or say is genius and that they crap brilliance every minute of ever day.

Unlike successful leaders, failed leaders who never question their dominance fail to realize they are at the mercy of changing circumstances.They vastly overestimate the extent to which they actually control events and vastly underestimate the role of chance and circumstance in their success.

The rules only apply to other people.  They don’t apply to us.

They live in a bubble.

Sound familiar?

Of course it does. 

Warning Sign  #1:  A lack of respect

You won’t even need to think too hard to come up with an example of a politician who consistently shows an utter lack of respect – and sometimes outright contempt – for other people and their ideas.

While those other links are to a couple of Danny Williams’ defining characteristics, that lack of respect thing is one Kathy Dunderdale leads in.  She loves to claim that her opponents are stupid or incompetent and usually that’s the sum total of her argument.

Habit #2:  They identify so completely with the company that there is no clear boundary between their personal interests and their corporation’s interests.

Warning Sign #2: A question of character

House of Assembly spending scandal.

And if you want something creepy, you can always go back to the Old Man’s 2007 claim:

I think I represent in my own heart and soul the hearts and souls of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians.

It’s hard to think of a statement in which someone confuses himself with the whole.

Habit #3:  They think they have all the answers.

If anyone can think of a time when Danny Williams ever took advice from someone else and acknowledged it publicly, then by all means share the story with the rest of us.  Did he ever take disagreement with his pronouncements well?

If you want a Dunderdale example, consider her approach to Muskrat Falls.  She  and her team of geniuses  have all the answers. So far Dunderdale hasn’t heard a single criticism of the project that makes her doubt the wisdom of ploughing ahead with the project.

And, in any event, all the critics are picking at little things in their predictably partisan way so what would they know?

Warning Sign for #3:  A leader without followers

Habit #4:  They ruthlessly eliminate anyone who isn’t completely behind them.

Think about the bizarro need to call people who wrote letters to the editor just to sort them out or blast them as traitors.

Let’s not forget the periodic expressions of concern about the handful of people who didn’t love Hisself unconditionally.  In the Straits after the by-election he sniffed about how much he had done for people and yet they didn’t vote for his hand-picked candidate.

The Old Man may not have relentlessly eliminated anyone but the Yes-Men and Yes-Women but he was overly concerned with dissent.

Warning Sign #4:  Executive departures

Think Beth Marshall in Health,  Florence Delaney or the executive level churn in the public service under Danny Williams and Kathy Dunderdale. 

Habit #5: They are consummate spokespersons, obsessed with the company image.

Poll goosing.

Public comments about having to spend 50% of his time dealing with counter-spinning negativity.

Micromanaging an access to information request to withhold copies of his public speeches.

Clinical example of this habit.

Warning Sign #5:  Blatant attention-seeking

This Hour Has 22 Minutes in a Hurricane

Habit #6: They underestimate obstacles.

Muskrat Falls.

Warning Sign #6:  Excessive hype

Pick an example.  There are too many to list since 2003.

Habit #7: They stubbornly rely on what worked for them in the past.

Danny Williams:  the Ultimate One Trick Pony.. 

Prime Ministers.

Oil Companies.

A lawyer from GFW.

Randy Simms.

If Danny Williams wasn’t lacing into someone for something, he just wasn’t having a good day. 

Warning Sign #7:  Constantly referring to what worked in the past

Anybody recall that offshore oil agreement thingy?

- srbp -

Whose camp is it anyway? #nlpoli

Leo Abbass, mayor of Happy Valley-Goose Bay.

Regular readers will know him already.

Quoted this time by Voice of the Cabinet Minister about a controversial work camp a company wants to build in his community.  VOCM linked the camp to Muskrat Falls, and so did Leo, according to the version on the story they had on Tuesday:

The Mayor of Happy Valley-Goose Bay says in order for work to continue on the Muskrat Falls project, a work camp has to be built in his town.  The proposed camp by the Shaw Group on Kelland Drive has come under scrutiny by area residents who think the 300 person sleeping and eating facility should be built elsewhere. Others, meanwhile, think local residents are not being given fair job opportunities. Mayor Leo Abbass says the attention that this work-project is receiving online seems to be based on what he calls 'the mixing of issues'.

He refers to one note on Facebook which says that the person was shocked that these jobs were being offered to outside people before they were offered to local residents. He says the expertise is not available in his town, and engineers and technicians have specialized skills and they will be brought in for this project. 360 members have joined a Facebook page opposing the development, which would require town council to amend its development regulations.  Abbass says public submissions will still be accepted until January 12th, and he hopes a public meeting scheduled for Thursday on the matter will help clarify the confusion. He says he thinks people are jumping the gun on what this project is all about. He says the grief that he is hearing right now about this work camp seems to based on what he calls 'a lot of misconception out there'.

Problem.

The work camp has nothing to do with Muskrat Falls, according to no less an authority than the people proposing the multi-billion dollar debt scheme.

“Nalcor not involved with proposed Kelland Drive camp” is the title of a post by vice president Gil Bennett on the Nalcor blog.

I assure residents that Nalcor Energy is not involved in this proposal by Shaw Group. Their proposal is not a requirement for the Muskrat Falls Project.

Bennett also outlined the local benefits scheme for Muskrat Falls.

On Wednesday, VOCM was still running the story connecting the camp to the Muskrat Falls project.

And they were still mentioning Leo Abbass who was also making the same connection.  The Wednesday version:

A public meeting will take place tomorrow night to discuss the construction of a controversial work camp in Happy Valley- Goose Bay. The local town council is proposing to amend its development regulations, which has residents worried that the 300-person camp would be built too close to homes. The camp will provide food, services, and shelter to engineers and technicians working on the Muskrat Falls project. Happy Valley-Goose Bay Mayor Leo Abbass says having a work camp in town is better than the situation in Labrador City and Wabush. He says contractors in Lab West have been buying up living spaces, a move which further tightens the housing market.

He says the work camp project in Happy Valley-Goose Bay will help alleviate the possibility of contractors buying existing properties, and then using them to house their workers. The proposed work camp has generated a fair bit of opposition from area residents, who have set up a Facebook page opposed to the project.

Leo has a bunch of problems, evidently, not the least of which is squaring his version of what the camp is about with what the Muskrat Falls people are saying.

One of the ways of doing that might be for Leo to have town officials look at any municipal regulations that would hinder growth in the town.  Leo could also talk to his provincial government buddies about shifting their regulations that hinder development of affordable housing.

If Leo and his council want to avoid the housing nightmare they have in Labrador West, then some regulatory changes would be far easier than backing a work camp for a project that the work camp apparently isn’t connected to in the first place.

- srbp - 

More on the polling controversy #nlpoli #cdnpoli

Susan Delacourt, from The Star, December 30:

Canada’s polling industry could be in for a shakeup in 2012, after some major knocks to its reputation in 2011.

Regular readers will recall the controversy from the federal election and from the fall provincial election from the series on polling and politics.

The Delacourt article mentions concerns voiced by pollsters themselves,  including comments by Ipsos chief executive Darrell Bricker.  He complained about the polling firms themselves and the media and how they report polls.

Delacourt also has some observations by Nik Nanos:

The MRIA [the industry association in Canada] does have a code of conduct and does audit polling firms to see whether they meet its “gold-seal” standard, says Nanos. But he’d like to see MRIA being more active in investigating members, and when it finds problems, Nanos believes the association should be publishing details of the polling transgressions, either on the website or through periodic bulletins.

The SRBP series included the MRIA standards. One of the tidbits that didn’t make it into the series was the standards contained in an FAQ produced by Newspapers Canada in 2008.  The broadcast media don’t have any industry standards at all as best as your humble e-scribbler could find, let alone anything close to these standards for newspapers. 

When I publish an opinion poll, what do I have to include?

If you publish a "real" opinion poll that is - not an unofficial "streeter" - you are required to include certain information if you are the first person to release the information or if you publish it within 24 hours of its first release.

You must include:

• the name of the sponsor of the poll
• the name of the organization who conducted the poll
• the date on which or the period during which the poll was conducted
• the population from which the sample of survey respondents was drawn
• the number of people contacted to participate
• the margin of error, if applicable

As newspapers, you must also include:

• the wording of the survey question
• instructions on how to obtain a written report of the survey results.

If I sponsor an opinion poll, are there any additional requirements?

If you sponsor a public opinion survey, you must, after the release of the survey, provide, on request, a written report that contains the following information:'

• the name and address of the sponsor of the survey
• the name and address of the person or organization that conducted the survey
• the date on which or the period during which the survey was conducted
• Information about the method used to collect the data from which the survey results were derived, including:
• the sampling method
• the population from which the sample was drawn
• the size of the sample
• the number of people asked to participate in the survey and the numbers and percentages of them who did not participate in the survey
• the number of people who refused to participate in the survey and were ineligible to participate in the survey
• the dates and time of day of the interviews
• the method used to recalculate data to take into account the results of participants who expressed no opinion, and any weighting factors or normalization procedures used in deriving the results of the survey
• the wording of the survey questions and the margin of error

A sponsor may charge up to $0.25 per page for a copy of the report.

That’s a pretty comprehensive list of information.  Following this standard would go a long way to correcting many of the problems with media reports of polling, including their own polls.

Too bad newspapers don’t follow the standards at all.

- srbp -

Christmas Goodies #nlpoli #cdnpoli

A couple of provocative articles turned up online over the holidays.  Now that everyone is getting back into the work-a-day groove, check them out.

Energy consultant Tom Adams took a hard look at Muskrat Falls and gave it a failing grade.  Adams doesn’t limit his comments to the MF project alone.  He also takes a look at the current rate structure:

The prevailing electricity rate structure for service on the island also suggests that the government is not serious about seeking the lowest cost options for meeting the province’s energy needs. The sale of power during the winter is highly subsidized, with the financial losses recovered by overcharging the rest of the year. Although this rate design is normal utility practice in far too many jurisdictions, given the cost structure for the power sector on the island where two thirds of the power is supplied by hydro-electric facilities, this practice is particularly wasteful of public resources. It would be interesting to know how much potential energy from on-island hydro-electric facilities is spilled during the spring, summer and fall. The prevailing rate structure encourages electric heating, where the power to drive those electric heaters is derived from oil. Using the oil directly for heating would be about three times as efficient as using the oil indirectly through electricity. If the government was really serious about mitigating the high economic and environmental costs of oil-fired generation, why would such a wasteful pricing methodology be allowed to persist?

How much gets spilled, Tom?  Crap loads.  The island is also in a situation where huge amounts of hydro currently spill because of deficiencies in the interconnection  between the main part of the island and the bit where a goodly part of the population lives.

As for the pricing structure, that’s the result of a chronic lack of policy direction from the provincial government and weakened oversight by the regulator. It’s the same climate that spawned the Muskrat Falls monster. 

When you are done with that, take a look at the second biting online commentary by CBC’s John Furlong.  He’s the host of the Fisheries Broadcast and one of the most seasoned journalists in the province. That gives him an impressive background which, of course, is the polite way of saying “he’s seen it all and he doesn’t swallow the bullshit”.

An example:

The union might not like it, the people in Marystown might not like it, and the people in Port Union might not like it, but it's time to lay down the over-heated rhetoric, be in the vanguard of this change and do something constructive.

You can tell Furlong is hitting the target by the vicious personal attacks on him from the anonyturds in the comments section of the CBC website.  This is his second sharply worded opinion piece.  it really livens up the CBC website.  Here’s hoping they make more use of him.

- srbp -

SRBP at Seven #nlpoli #cdnpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers turns seven years old today.

The purpose remains simple enough, as described in the first anniversary post:

While much has changed in the past year, the core goal for the Bond Papers is still the same: to contribute to an informed discussion of public policy issues. It started with the offshore and in the first few weeks that proved to be the issue that dominated.

Since then, there have been posts on everything from the fishery to alleged spy planes flying through Newfoundland and Labrador, Titan missiles and economic development. Some posts are light-hearted and humourous. Others have been deeper and wordier. Whether they succeeded in being funny or serious, as the case may be, is best left to its readers.

On the fourth anniversary, in 2009, your humble e-scribbler posted draft whistleblower legislation. 

In 2011, the anniversary post went by the wayside in favour of the daily fare:  Muskrat Falls financial problems.

This morning, your humble e-scribbler started a new short series on democracy in Newfoundland and Labrador. 

All are typical of what this corner of the Internet has become in the last seven years.  SRBP is not just about adding to the voices out there.  It’s about getting at the layers underneath.  It’s about explaining the why behind arguments and beliefs.

SRBP has also become about advocating for new initiatives.  When the province’s most popular politician Danny failed to deliver his promise of whistleblower protection, your humble e-scribbler delivered it.  Look through the archives and you’ll find all sorts of policy ideas for the fishery, the economy and education and early childhood development.

And in some areas, your humble e-scribbler has been telling you things you won;t find anywhere else.

SRBP was an immediate opponent of the Abitibi expropriation.  It was fundamentally wrong, as a matter of principle.  The government never told the full story of why the expropriated the hydroelectric properties in central Newfoundland.  Finding out that the government botched the whole thing and expropriated environmental cesspools made it only more stupid than it was at the beginning.

After a brief examination, your humble e-scribbler also became a firm opponent of Muskrat Falls.  In the year since Danny Williams announced the scheme, more people have joined the ranks of the critics and opponents.  As more people learn more, they invariably realise the project is wrong.

SRBP’s critique goes much further than just picking at bits and pieces of one small part of a much larger problem with the current administration’s policy.  Your humble e-scribbler has already proposed an alternative way to manage the province’s electricity resources that will genuinely work in the public’s best interest.

As SRBP enters its eighth year, the ultimate judge of its success or failure is you, the reader. There are many thousands more of you today than there were seven years ago.  You send e-mails, make comments on posts or in some cases, pull your humble e-scribbler aside for a quick chat.

Politicians used to make angry phone calls in 2005 to gripe about a comment or opinion.  In 2007, the Old Man took to threatening your humble e-scribbler publicly.  In 2011, his successor gave the ultimate compliment to those of us who toil online by singling us out in her year-end interviews.

All of that speaks to the fact that people are interested in what they read here.  As long as they keep coming and as long as your humble e-scribbler can keep going, the Sir Robert Bond Papers will be here.

Thank you for your support. 

Thank you for your interest.

And to each of you, every wish for a happy and prosperous and healthy New Year from your humble e-scribbler.

- srbp -

The question of democracy in Newfoundland and Labrador #cdnpoli #nlpoli

“A democracy only works really well,” according to Kathy Dunderdale, “when people are asking questions.”

Opposition Leader Dwight Ball told a Western Star interviewer that “my job is to ask questions with substance…”.

Not to be outdone in the spate of year-end interviews, New Democratic Party leader Lorraine Michael tied the health of democracy to asking questions:

If our natural resources standing committee ... were operating like a House of Commons committee or like the committees in Nova Scotia, we’d have a fully open discussion on Muskrat Falls.

Not surprisingly, all three party leaders in Newfoundland and Labrador agree on what constitutes democracy in the province.  They lead parties that agree on everything but the fine details. 

Not surprisingly, the three leaders discuss democracy solely in terms of what happens in the provincial legislature.  The only disagreement they have, such as it is, centres on the questions the opposition parties ask.  The NDP want more time to ask questions.  The Liberals want to ask better questions and the Conservatives claim variously that there is enough time for questions as things stand or that the quality of them is low anyway so more time wouldn’t make things better.

In one sense, democracy is about questions.

It is about people who want power – like Kathy Dunderdale, Lorraine Michael and Dwight Ball – asking the rest of us in the community to support them at election time.  We support them with the one thing that we all have in common:  our individual vote. Everyone in the community has exactly the same kind of vote. And it is our individual vote that is the foundation of everything else that happens in our democracy.

In between elections, democracy is about those people who get enough support to form a government asking “May I” when they want to do something. That’s essentially what they do in the House of Assembly.

They pose the question to the other members of the House, whether from their own party or the other parties and individuals who won enough votes to sit in the legislature. 

You’ll find that quite literally in the procedure.  The Speaker will “put the question” on a motion, a resolution or a bill to the House and ask the members to vote.

Ask a question. 

Vote on an answer.

Decision made.

All starting from the fundamental question put to individual voters at an election to chose individuals who will represent those voters in the legislature.

Things weren’t always that way.  But starting almost 800 years ago, in those countries that follow the British parliamentary tradition, people started to place limits on what the government could do without the agreement of the people ruled by the government.

The 1689 Bill of Rights brought together many of the features of our modern democracy that we often assume have always been around and that people have always accepted.  Freedom of speech,  freedom to stand for and to vote in elections to the legislature and the need for the legislature to meet regularly are all contained in the 1689 Bill of Rights. They survive today: some changed, some the same.

At the core of the whole thing is choice.  People chose their representatives to sit in the legislature.  We select those representatives to stand in for each of us every day between elections.

We do not elect a government.  We elect people to the legislature, to the House of Assembly.  Out of those people, we get a group to run the government.  And those people running the government must come back to our direct representatives for approval for what they want to do, especially when it comes to spending public money.

There are two other ideas that go along with choice and who gets to chose.  One of these is that choices must be based on information.  The legislature’s day-to-day business is built around debate and the exchange of information. 

The other idea is that the information and choice must be in public.  The legislature has space for people to sit and watch what happens.  News media and others can report on what happens.  The legislature keeps an official record – Hansard – that people can read.

Seen from that perspective, those political comments about questions and the legislature don’t look all that good or convincing.  Looking at some recent history, one can find a host of examples  – from the spending scandal to the Abitibi expropriation fiasco  - that show the bad things that happen when politicians operate in secret. 

You can also see that the Premier’s excuses for keeping the legislature closed simply don’t make sense.  If she feels that her current job is a “rare privilege”, then Kathy Dunderdale needn’t remind herself of that fact every day, in secret, in her office. 

She can show up in the legislature and demonstrate that she gets the point:  if you want power in this province, the you have to stand up in the legislature and ask “May I?”

The purpose of the House is to subject those with power to public examination and to the test of debate, discussion and disclosure.  The Premier and her colleagues should want the legislature to be open as much as possible.  They should want to tell us about their plans, present their case and convince us all that they have good ideas.

How very odd it is, then, that the Premier admitted at the end of last year that she and her colleagues don’t have any thing ready to present to the House.  This is the case despite the fact they’ve been in office since 2003 and the Premier herself has held her job for more than a year.

At other times, Dunderdale has said that she kept the legislature closed because the House was dysfunctional.  The opposition parties were weak. Who will hold them accountable for what they say, she wondered. 

The answer is simple:  the ordinary people of Newfoundland and Labrador will.  If the opposition political parties are as weak as Dunderdale claims, then they won’t be able to hide away from public scrutiny either.  Exposing yourself to examination works both for those with power and those who want it.

The fact that the Premier and her colleagues avoid the House as they do and denigrate the legislature as the Premier does, she demonstrates nothing less than contempt for the people of the province.

To be fair, though, none of the parties in the House can really escape blame on this point.  All parties have  helped to create the current climate. Dunderdale controls how often the House sits.  But the other parties went along unquestioningly with the special ballot laws that undermine the right of individuals to stand for election.  Some even openly suggested making this a one party state.  Perhaps that explains why they slipped things through the House with a nod and a wink and stood idly by as their colleagues abused the fundamental rights we have enjoyed. Now they may not see it that way. They may believe that what they have done is absolutely right in every respect.

But they were not right.

It is not okay.

The attitude and actions of politicians in the province in recent decades are why the state of democracy in our province is, itself, in question.

- srbp -

Effective Speechmaking

Scan down the list of recommended blogs and you’ll see a link to Max Atkinson.  He’s a British academic whose made a sideline career out of being a communications consultant.

While many of you have likely never heard of him, Atkinson has had a significant impact on modern speech making through his writing and consulting work. Much of what people now take for granted or what they consider to be established fact actually came out of Atkinson’s research over the past 30 years or so.

Dig into Atkinson’s background a bit and you will inevitably come across reference to his success with Liberal Democrat leader Paddy Ashdown. Before that, though, Atkinson gained public notoriety when he appeared on a British television program called “World in Action”.  They hired him to coach an inexperienced political activist as she delivered some public remarks at a Social Democratic Party conference.  She earned a standing ovation for her four minute speech.  Once the program aired, Atkinson’s phone started ringing with calls from other politicians who wanted his help.

The program is 27 minutes long.  Atkinson posted a good quality copy of the whole thing to his blog in 2010 as well as a youtube version which is broken into segments.  The picture quality on the segments isn’t that good. Bear in mind, though, that the thing came from a video tape made 25 years earlier.

Here’s the last bit with the actual speech, as delivered.

If this is all the time you have, that’s fine.  But if you want to get the full effect, go back and take the time to watch the whole thing.  You’ll find the impact of the speech is much greater.  You can spot some of the techniques employed.

The segment is about winning applause.  If you watch the whole thing, you’ll see how to deliver an effective speech.

Enjoy!

- srbp -

A challenge for Premier Dunderdale #nlpoli #cdnpoli

“In any thriving democracy, sound public policy can only come through informed debate and discussion.”

”Beginnings” , SRBP, January 3, 2005.

Premier Kathy Dunderdale thinks that at least some of the opposition to Muskrat Falls comes from picking at “snapshots” of the project instead of looking at the big picture. 

Truth is the three political parties in the province all support her project.  The NDP are all in.  The Liberals are just quibbling over minor details.

The Premier also spent a fair chunk of time in her year-end interviews talking up her critics online and running down the debate skills of her opponents in the legislature.

The people of Newfoundland and Labrador deserve to hear the Premier’s detailed, passionate argument in favour of the multi-billion dollar Muskrat Falls.

They also deserve to hear a detailed, passionate argument her plan.

Since they aren’t going to get that from the province’s political parties, here’s the simple solution:

The Premier can debate your humble e-scribbler.

In public.

One night only.

Book a big enough hall, sell tickets and open the thing to the news media and to online coverage.

We can sort out the date, time place and format.  We’ll find a moderator.

Proceeds from  the event will go to the charity of the debaters’ choice.  Your humble-e-scribbler will give his share to the Arthritis Society.

The Premier can take all the time she needs to get ready but since she has her own deadlines to meet, we should be able to get the thing done before Easter. 

The Premier is backed by the mighty forces of Nalcor.  She has the army of bureaucrats in the Confederation and all the communication coaches, debate trainers, technical experts and pundits she can hire.

Your humble e-scribbler has himself, a couple of buddies and the Internet.

The Premier should have no problem at all.

All she has to do is accept the challenge.

- srbp -

The Last Weekly Traffic Report for 2011 #nlpoli

1. The reality of her world
2. Making the world safe for sexism
3. Monkey Cage Round-up
4. The Top Ten for Eleven
5. Undisclosed risk
6. Familiar Furrows
7. The Scribbler’s Picks for 2011
8. Tory angst might be well founded
9. The Zazzy Substitution
10. The Wheel of Fish

- srbp -

Familiar Furrows #nlpoli

Kathy Dunderdale spent most of her time in year-end interviews lamenting her critics.

No accomplishments.

No vision thing.

Just a lot of carping.

Lots of grousing about her critics and even a reference to the problems free speech in the legislature are causing her.

She said she kept the House of Assembly closed because it was dysfunctional, and a waste of time, and everyone else was useless.

Can’t ask proper questions, dontchya know. Kathy-approved intelligent questions.

Now, as the Telegram’s James Macleod puts it, the story is a little different:

Dunderdale has said repeatedly that there’s a simple reason for leaving the House closed: the government had no legislation to pass.

All that and the glories of Muskrat Falls, even though she  - herself – spends more time griping about everyone else rather than explaining the whole thing to people.

It is all just so boringly familiar.

The relentless negativity, that is.

Follow that second link if you haven’t already.  It will lead you to a quote from the Old Man Hisself circa November 2009:

But Williams said he's not going to stick around forever "to beat a dead horse" if a deal cannot be sealed, nor will he sign a bad deal [to develop the Lower Churchill] for the sake of getting one done while in office.

Hmmm.

In an interview with CBC to be broadcast Friday evening, Williams says he left office suddenly in late 2010 because he couldn’t handle the criticism anymore. 

His skin got thin again, apparently.

When Williams left office he said it was because he had just inked a deal with Nova Scotia to develop the Lower Churchill that was by no means a give away.

And as for that promise about no deal just to get out of the job?

Well, let’s just say that Harvey’s has salt for sale by the bucket load down at the waterfront. 

Buy lots.

You’ll need it.

- srbp -

The Scribbler’s Picks for 2011 #nlpoli

National Political Story:  The Conservatives finally won a majority government in 2011.  They turned out to be not-so-scary after all for enough Canadians.


Provincial Political Story:   OCI’s unilateral start to changing the fishing industry beats anything else.  What they have started will have a profound effect on the province well into the future.

Many the politician is scared shitless of the whole thing.  You can see the fear in their eyes every time they speak of it.

None was more fear-filled than Kathy Dunderdale who tried to claim in one year-end interview that all she could do was facilitate discussions among other people.  Yeah, right,  as if Kath and her fellow pols of all political stripes haven’t been intimately involved with creating the current mess or won’t be affected by the sea change that is coming.

Try the SRBP post “The Wheel of Fish” if you want to read some of this corner’s observations.

High Point for the Scribbler:  The 15 Ideas series. Start here.  Close second:  The series on politics, polls and the media starting with the Echo Chamber which goes back to a 2006 series that changed the way many people look at politics and the news media.

Recurring Theme to Remember:  You can’t slide a single sheet of paper between the three political parties on most issues.  The Tory leadership fiasco at the start of the year is as good a place as any to start your review. Try “A Hugh Shea for our time” from January.

What Theme  Keeps Repeating Like Greasy Fish and Chips?  Irresponsible government spending. Start with “The Four Horsemen and government finances”.  Notice how familiar the issues are.  Regular readers will recall that SRBP flagged the Tories’ spending habits in 2006. 

A story that will drag into the New Year:  The death throes of the provincial Liberal Party.   “The Zazzy Substitution”  will get you started.  Don’t worry if you haven’t been paying attention.  There’ll be plenty of opportunities to catch up over the next couple of years.

- srbp -

The reality of her world #nlpoli

Some people are trying to make a controversy out of Premier Kathy Dunderdale’s recent comments that public sector unions should “expect a more modest increase” than the salary rises they’ve been used to from the Conservatives since 2003.

Look at “the reality of the world”, Dunderdale admonishes everyone.

Well, a look at the world she lives in  - as opposed to the one people imagine exists - reveals a great deal.

Revelation One:  As labradore has noted repeatedly, the provincial Conservatives are responsible for expanding the public service both in absolute numbers and as a share of the provincial labour force.

In his most recent version, labradore notes both the size of the public sector: 25% of the provincial labour force.  Then he adds Revelation 2: the growth in the total value of the pay packet.  Since 2006, the total public sector pay cost has gone from about $1.9 billion to about $2.65 billion by January 2011.

Revelation 3 really puts it in perspective. Scan down through David Campbell’s commentary in the Globe on December 28 and you’ll find plenty to knock your eyeballs out about the growth of the provincial economy. Take the bits rom labradore and put it together with this on the relative position od the public sector pay envelope compared to the national average:

In 1998, the average weekly wage in the public administration sector in Newfoundland and Labrador was more than 22 per cent below the national average. Now it is 3.3 per cent above. That is a monumental shift in wages over a short 11 year period. A similar, but less pronounced story is found in both the health care and education sectors.

Most of that increase came since 2006.

So for anyone who is still harbouring any misapprehensions, understand that the provincial public sector has been driving the provincial economy for the past decade.  Thousands of more employees making – collectively – hundreds of millions more year over year and you have the growth since 2006 focused on the northeast Avalon. 

Now add to that the sources of provincial government revenue, as laid out in the annual provincial budget Estimates. You start to see the role that taxes on individual incomes and consumption play in fuelling the explosion in government spending since 2006.

Mining taxes and royalties produced about $167.5 million in revenue in 2010.  Personal income taxes brought in $888 million and sales taxes brought in another $791 million. Even gasoline taxes brought in more than mining royalties ($168.45 million) in 2010.

The forecast for 2011 did include an increase in mining royalties and taxes to $343 million. But even with that, two of those three taxes will still produce well over double the amount for the treasury than will come from rent companies pay for the privilege of exploiting the province’s non-renewable mineral resources.

When you look at the reality of things, Kathy Dunderdale and the Conservatives can’t afford to chop into provincial spending without putting a gigantic chill in the local economy.  As much as Dunderdale likes to admit that she and her colleagues have been irresponsible in boosting public sector spending to unsustainable levels, they haven’t left themselves any real manoeuvring room politically.

Now this might seem a bit harsh to Kathy’s delicate sensibilities, but the reality is that Dunderdale can’t do anything but provide the public sector with some lovely increases in their coming contract negotiations. 

When Kathy Dunderdale says public sector unions should expect more modest increases, we should understand she is probably speaking relatively.  Compared to their last contract when they got an eight percent jump followed by three successive years of four percent, public sector employees should probably look for something like four years of four percent. or four percent followed by three over the subsequent years.

But any serious confrontation?

Don’t count on it.

The Tories don’t have the nuts for it, pea or otherwise.

- srbp -

Undisclosed risk (September 12, 2007)

[Editor's Note:  This is a post originally scheduled for publication in September 2007.  For some reason, it never appeared. Here it is, as originally written.  Note that some of the links may not work].

Take a look at the energy plan consultation document released in November 2006.

Try to find any reference to changing the province's generic oil royalty regime.

You won't find one.

The Top Ten for Eleven #nlpoli

1. Tory angst may be well founded (January 2011)
2. Humber West post mortem (February 2011)
3. Connie leadership rigged? (January 2011)
4. Watton to carry Liberal banner in Humber West (January 2011)
5. From 61% to 44% since August:  NTV poll shows Tory support slides further (February 2011)
6. HMV (March 2011)
7. Rick Hillier?  Tim Powers?  No thanks say NL Tories (January 2011)
8. Anyone seen John Hickey? (March 2011)
9. Connie Leadership 2011:  Brad and Circuses  (January 2011)
10. Patronage, pure and simple (March 2011)

- srbp -