Party Spending on Polls #nlpoli

Over the past decade, the provincial Conservatives have consistently outspent the other parties in the province on polling and similar research in both election and off years, according to figures filed with the province’s elections office.

The table below shows the amounts each party reported as spending on research and polling. In general election years, the figures are the reported figures for the general election periods.  Parties also may have spent money outside the election period. That isn’t included here.

General Election Cost Per Vote - Updated #nlpoli

Last fall, we looked at cost per vote for provincial general elections.  At the time, Election NL hadn’t released the 2011 general election figures but with those numbers now available, it’s time to update the earlier comparison.

Two things to note:

• first, these comparisons are only for election period spending by each of the three parties.  Last fall we looked at total spending by the parties throughout the year.
• second, the chart is a bar instead of a line graph.  This is a better visual presentation since the individual yearly comparisons are still there without implying any connection from one year to the next.

Some evidence #nlpoli

A few years ago, some people believed that comments left on news stories and in online discussion groups could influence public opinion.

As it turns out, no one took any advice about anything from some person called newfiesexgod27.

Who knew?

Influence and Manipulation #nlpoli

Public opinion changes.

Individuals don’t hold exactly the same attitudes about things throughout their entire lives.

That’s true of how the typical man or woman feels about clothing styles, cars, movies, books, politics, or just about anything else.

Not surprisingly in a society like ours, there are people who want to try and change opinions and attitudes.  They want to persuade people to buy a product, support a political decision or stop doing something like smoking.

Also not surprisingly, we have some basic ideas about how people should do that.

Copper-fastened #nlpoli

According to the Telegram editorialist argued last week, this fuss over renovations was nothing at all.

At any rate, renovations planned long in advance — to keep the legislature from falling apart — are hardly a fair target for criticism.
It’s fair to say if the Opposition’s roof was leaking, they’d be singing a different tune.

This conclusions assume one thing not actually disclosed in media reports on the need to relocate three floors of the Confederation Building tower and another thing that’s actually preposterous.

Some Free Advice for Paul Lane #nlpoli

Paul Lane.

Paulie.

Pepsi-man.

Snook-ums.

You are embarrassed.

Someone ratted you out and made you look like bad.

You hid out for four days.

Not the smartest strategy ever, but hey.

You got pissy with people on Twitter and your performance on Here and Now was…well…vintage Paul Lane
.
Just remember:

Politicians have survived far worse scandals than a leak of a few text messages that show you and all your colleagues treat totally irrelevant online polls like they actually mattered.

Politicians have survived acting like far bigger jerks than you could ever be in your wildest dreams.  They have made it through sex scandals, assorted other personal indiscretions, financial shenanigans, electoral irregularities, and a raft of other things infinitely worse than what has happened to you in your very short political career.

But…

once the public starts laughing at you … in public … to your face … well…

you are screwed.

Totally.

Just sayin’.

-srbp-

A Record of Manipulation #nlpoli

With a tip of the hat to Gerry Rogers and Andrew Parsons, here are some posts from the SRBP archive that all bear on the current political mess in which the provincial Conservatives find themselves.

“Playing the Numbers”  (August 2006) One element of the program involves aggressively pushing out their own message, especially when their pollster is in the field.   The first of the original three-part series that described the Conservative media strategy.  There’s a lot more to it than just online polls. Follow the links for the other two.

Freedom from Information  (Various)  Bill 29 was just the latest in a long string of efforts by the Conservatives to restrict what the public knows.  Controlling information is another key element of the government program.

“Mark Griffin:  traitor”  (February 2009)  A third element of the program involved efforts to suppress dissent.  Mark Griffin was an especially glaring example. There have been lots of others, reported and presumably unreported.  Write a letter? Get a call. 

“Everything else is advertising”  (December 2009) News is everything they want to keep you from seeing.  There’s no story here.

“Deep Throat” (February 2010) Someone inside the provincial Conservative crew leaked the messages about poll goosing. Earlier, someone (else?) dropped a quarter and ratted Danny’s secret heart surgery out to NTV.

“The Screaming of the Banshees”  (February 2010)  NTV broke the story.  The Conservatives mount an organized attack on CBC.  Some people still think that the who horde of people saying exactly the same thing arose spontaneously.  Sure it did.

“Planted Calls and Personal Threats Against Talk Show Host Revealed”  (August 2010)  Randy Simms, interviewed by Geoff Meeker, included a text-book definition of a planted caller.

“Enough of the Political Day-Care” (March 2012) As soon as you read it, you will remember the episode.  What might leap out more for someone of you now than before is the idea that calling Open Line was a threat that struck fear into Tory hearts.

-srbp-

Live from the Orchestra Pit #nlpoli

Newfoundlanders and Labradorians got a vivid example on Thursday of the Orchestra Pit Theory of Political reporting.

For those who don’t know the story, the Orchestra Pit theory goes like this:  two politicians are on the stage.  One announces a cure for cancer.  The other falls into the orchestra pit.  The media will cover the guy in the pit.

Well, the guy in the pit on Thursday was Brad Cabana.

She’s Got Marty Feldman Eyes #nlpoli

If you want to see a politician under significant stress, take a look at Kathy Dunderdale talking to reporters about her party’s heavily organized effort to goose unscientific, online polls.

Her voice is high pitched.

She’s moving around.

And she’s got Marty Feldman Eyes.

So why did they lie? #nlpoli

CBC’s David Cochrane contacted the public works department*  Premier’s Office and asked about rumours he’d heard of renovations to the Premier’s Office.

As Cochrane reported on Twitter, the public works department Premier’s Office told him that there were no renovations currently happening.

Not exactly true, as it turned out.

“Doom and gloom” #nlpoli

Seems that finance minister Jerome Kennedy isn’t the only fellow out there conducting the annual budget “consultation” farce this year.

According to the Southern Gazette, justice minister Darin King “acknowledged, as part of a small cabinet committee appointed by Premier Kathy Dunderdale to bring budget recommendations back to government, he was asked to split the pre-budget consultations with Mr. Kennedy.”

Apparently, the idea is to have a bunch of ministers fan out across the province so they can come back with ideas on how to get through a “couple of years” when oil production will be down and things will be tough.

A couple of years.

Only two years?

That’s an interesting way to put it.

What’s more interesting is the way the Southern Gazette led into their story on the Marystown session:

It was largely more ‘doom and gloom’ from Justice Minister Darin King, as he conducted a provincial pre-budget consultation in Marystown Friday afternoon.

Yuck.

King had company at his session.  Education minister Clyde Jackman tagged along.

And that small group King mentioned?  It includes Nick McGrath, the province’s government services minister. 

-srbp-

High-Priced Cow Pats #nlpoli

The Atlantic Provinces Economic Council thinks the provincial government should do something about its spending, what with declining revenues.

Well, you know.

Sort of.

Maybe.

Who farted? #nlpoli

Finance minister Jerome Kennedy took his budget “consultation” roadshow to Corner Brook the other day.  Former finance minister Tom Marshall showed up to help.  Tom has run more than a few of these farces so he could lend a hand if things got tough.

Well, all that was one thing.

The other thing is the way the video freezes in the online CBC story on the “consultation” in Corner Brook. 

A Commitment to Secrecy #nlpoli

The justice department is the lead department enforcing the provincial access to public information law.

As such, it’s a pretty serious indictment of the government’s commitment to public access when the justice department violates the access law.

From the access commissioner’s summary of his report into the latest complaint against the justice department:

The Applicant submitted two access to information requests to the Department of Justice dated June 15, 2012. … The Applicant received no response to his request for information regarding psychiatric services until November 9, 2012, when the Department responded to both this Office and the Applicant as a result of his Request for Review submitted to this Office in October. This four and half month delay occurred despite the fact that the majority of information was in the custody or control of the Department and required little redaction. The request with respect to payment information was responded to on August 24, 2012, when the Department notified the Applicant that no records existed. There was no communication with the Applicant to explain the reasons for the delay in either case. The Commissioner found that in both cases there was a breach of both sections 9 and 11 of the ATIPPA. …

-srbp-

Who knows the mind of a squid? #nlpoli

[Almost Immediate Update at the bottom]

Why do they do it?

People keep asking why the provincial Conservatives spend so much time and tons of public money goosing the VOCM question of the day in the way that supports whatever the Tories are supporting at the moment.

It is a mystery, gentle readers.

It is inscrutable.

Like the ways of the Lord, it passeth all understanding by those of us who have not touched the hem of Hisself’s garment or who don’t hang around churches chowing down on breakfast, lunch or dinner, like current poll goosing ring-master Paul Lane apparently does.

Muskrat Falls: delayed dividends, more equity needed #nlpoli

The provincial “mid-year” financial update included a familiar claim about the Muskrat Falls project:

We estimate that the province will see revenues in excess of $20 billion over 50 years beginning in 2017, with average annual revenues of $450 million over this period.

But a new analysis of the project cash flows by JM shows that it will be 2031 before the provincial government will realise any genuine dividends from the project.  What’s more,  it will be sometime around 2048 before the dividends would reach as much as $200 million.

That’s not all.  The provincial government will have to inject upwards of $100 million over and above any amounts described to date in order to maintain the debt-service coverage ratio (DSCR) of 1.4 during the first five years of the project as required by the federal loan guarantee.

When you consider the equity repayment, the required debt service ratio, and include the potential upside from power exports, Muskrat Falls will be in operation for nearly two decades before the net returns to the Government of Newfoundland will match that presently provided by the Upper Churchill. This statement is one which is not fully understood by even the most buoyant supporters or sharpest critics of the Muskrat Falls project. [page 2]

If the next two years are bad… #nlpoli

[Stick to your Lane Update:  See bottom]

No surprise that on the day after natural resources minister Jerome Kennedy talked about looming deficits of pre-1934 proportions that the ruling Conservatives did two things.

First, backbencher Paul Lane reinterpreted Kennedy’s comments on VOCM Open Line with Randy Simms.  There will only be big deficits, says Lane, if we don’t do anything about it. 

Second, Jerome Kennedy didn’t tell the people at his first pre-budget “consultation” anything of what he planned to do over the next few years. 

Time to Break the Cycle #nlpoli

Jerome Kennedy told reporters on Wednesday that  he and his officials are forecasting that the provincial government will rack up almost $4.0 billion in deficits over the next three years.

That consists of about $725 million this year, followed by two years in which the government will spend $1.6 billion each year than it will take in.

None of that should come as a surprise to any regular SRBP readers.  This corner has been warning about the current administration’s spending practices since 2006. 

So now what?

Water, water, everywhere…#nlpoli

Before they took office in 2003 – an election year -  the province’s Conservatives pounded the incumbent Liberals for the poor quality of drinking water across the province.

Danny Williams thought the whole thing was such a big problem that he promised to make drinking water a key part of the Conservative agenda after the 2003 election.

Once in office, the Conservatives did nothing about drinking water at all.

Newfoundland Act, 1949 (Terms of Union)

Newfoundland Act

12 & 13 Geo. VI, c. 22 (U.K.)

An Act to confirm and give effect to Terms of Union agreed between Canada and Newfoundland.

[23rd March 1949.]

Whereas by means of a referendum the people of Newfoundland have by a majority signified their wish to enter into confederation with Canada;

And whereas the Agreement containing Terms of Union between Canada and Newfoundland set out in the Schedule to this Act has been duly approved by the Parliament of Canada and by the Government of Newfoundland;

And whereas Canada has requested, and consented to, the enactment of an Act of the Parliament of the United Kingdom to confirm and give effect to the said Agreement, and the Senate and House of Commons of Canada in Parliament assembled have submitted an address to His Majesty praying that His Majesty may graciously be pleased to cause a Bill to be laid before the Parliament of the United Kingdom for that purpose;

Be it therefore enacted by the King's Most Excellent Majesty, by and with the advice and consent of the Lords Spiritual and Temporal, and Commons, in this present Parliament assembled, and by the authority of the same, as follows:--

1. The Agreement containing Terms of Union between Canada and Newfoundland set out in the Schedule to this Act is hereby confirmed and shall have the force of law notwithstanding anything in the Constitution Acts, 1867 to 1940.

2. In accordance with the preceding section the provisions of the Newfoundland Act, 1933, other than section three thereof (which relates to guarantee of certain securities of Newfoundland) shall be repealed as from the coming into force of the said Terms of Union.

3.This Act may be cited as the Newfoundland Act.