If you want to get a decent discussion of the Ontario election results and the way polling research tracked the campaign, take a look at a piece from The Star on Sunday.
The piece talks about different ways of conducting a poll – Internet panel, live calls or automated calls – and compares the results of each technique with the election outcome and with different polls conducted during the last week of the campaign.
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We’re shit at giving it, we’re shit at getting it, respecting it, promoting it. Criticism in Newfoundland is bad.
“Fundamentally, the [Conservative Party leadership] process works,” former Conservative cabinet minister Shawn Skinner said on CBC’s On Point last weekend. “It’s been proven in the past. The party would have been better served if there’d been more candidates, but it is what it is.”
It’s a variation on what Skinner said on the same program after he confirmed he wouldn’t run.
In itself, the statement is literally true: the process delivered a leader for the party.
But that’s about all it seemed to do.
The incredible story from Ireland about the remains of 800 babies and children found in a discarded septic tank caused your humble e-scribbler to think a bit about local history.
Then this post at the Monkey Cage put it in a bigger perspective.
How times change.
Last week, industry minister Susan Sullivan attended an announcement by Air Canada that they would be bringing back year-round direct flights between St. John’s and London. Starting in the fall, Air Canada will offer three direct flights a week to London. Next summer, they’ll offer daily service.
It’s great news for anyone who wants to travel to Europe for business or on holiday. For that matter, if you want to get anywhere to the East, having a flight to London is a bonus. It’s like having that daily shuttle to Newark if you want to go anywhere in the United States and further south.
At times like this, it seems like a million years ago that the same people who are running the province these days were engaged in a complete insane jihad against Air Canada for making a simple business decision.
Tom Marshall spent his last few hours ever as a member of the House of Assembly on Thursday, as the spring session drew to a close. Tom’s already handed in his notice and will be out of the Premier’s Office and politics around this time next month.
Marshall is decent fellow who brought sincerity, integrity, and dignity to the House and to the cabinet responsibilities he bore. He took a lot of praise from colleagues on both sides of the House on Thursday and Tom deserved every word. Tom’s short tenure as Premier began with some of the smartest moves the Conservatives have ever made.
It’s unfortunate that the end of his tenure has been marred by a series of unfortunate events. But in another sense, those events are typical of the history of the current administration.
Corporate Research Associates and the provincial Conservatives played up the change in government satisfaction in the release of CRA’s quarterly advertising poll on Wednesday.
But CRA’s satisfaction numbers don’t mean anything, as regular readers of this corner recall from last month. CRA doesn’t explore “satisfaction” to see what it means and, as you can see from the party choice numbers, voters don’t think it means much either. The Conservatives get high government satisfaction numbers but they still indicate they’d vote for another party by a wide margin if there was an election tomorrow.
Essentially the Conservatives today are in the same spot the Liberals were in before the 2003 election. That is, the same spot, with one difference: the Liberals were polling higher. That should send a shiver up the spine of a few Conservatives. Either that it would spur them to all sorts of imaginary crap like pretending that the Liberal vote is soft or that people are just waiting with bated breath for the real Coleman to emerge and unleash his “vision” on them.
Rather than fantasy, let’s see what the CRA numbers might tell us if we try to keep both feet on the ground.
John Crosbie, the elder statesmen of Conservatives in the province took a shot at Danny Williams for his continued interference in the internal affairs of the provincial Conservatives.
Danny blew a gasket and willingly gave interviews to every media outlet in town, thereby guaranteeing that the story that can only do even more damage to the provincial Conservatives would keep going for a day longer than the Conservatives needed.
Not to be outdone, Tweet minister Steve Kent called a couple of the local media outlets and claimed that his unique status in the Conservative leadership-race-that-never-was entitled him to refute Crosbie. Thus the story will drag on for yet another news cycle longer than the Conservatives really needed.
Every now and again, someone will talk about voter apathy.
Last week, Steve Kent was circulating the link to an article that claimed that youth engagement – getting young people more involved in the community and in politics – was a way of getting more people to vote at election time.
That’s what voter apathy is about, by the way: low voter turn-out at the polls. It’s a big issue in most of Europe and in North America. we’ll get back to it in a minute.
Kent was so keen on this article because he is working hard to become the youth engagement guru of Newfoundland and Labrador. He is especially proud of his first bill in the legislature – Bill 6 – that included a couple of clauses that say a town council can name people under the age of 18 years to positions called “youth representatives.”
The smart guy they could have had – but frigged over twice - told Canadian Press:
“The understanding of the [provincial political] climate isn’t as sophisticated as it should be for those who are working with Mr. Coleman on the strategic side.”
Without knowing what the smart guy said, one of the guys supporting Mr. Coleman said:
“I don’t think anybody ever dreamed in a million years that Frank would take the heat that he has taken over the past few months since he decided to run…”.
The ferry service between Newfoundland and Cape Breton is economically important to the province as a whole, but it’s especially sensitive for Port aux Basques.
Marine Atlantic announced a change in the summer ferry schedule on Thursday. The company will reduce the number of crossings daily and put one of its ferries on stand-by in the event they need it.
This isn’t the schedule the company announced in February for its busiest season of the year but, as the company spokesperson put it in this media interviews, their original projections turned out to be high. As a result, the company has reduced the number of schedules crossings while keeping the option of adding capacity if bookings pick up.
The Telegram’s James McLeod started a story that appeared on 26 May with the following sentence:
Premier-designate Frank Coleman says he wants to run a premier’s office with fewer people, and he’s starting that already — six weeks before he becomes premier.
What neither McLeod, nor his editors, nor anyone else in the province’s news media seemed to wonder is how Coleman did that. They’ve all treated events last Friday evening as normal. They’ve reported it as routine.
According to NTV’s Mike Connors Frank Coleman said that he and Tom Marshall agreed to Friday’s events. That is, they both agreed to sack all but a couple of Tom’s staff members and replace them gradually with people of Coleman’s choosing.
For his part, Tom Marshall insists that he appointed Coleman’s people and that there is only one Premier in the province. That’s all beside the point, though, as Marshall well knows.
Liberal leader Dwight Ball and Conservative leader-designate Frank Coleman delivered speeches in St. John’s last week and you couldn’t have scripted more startling contrasts.
Ball delivered a speech at an event that reflected his party’s standing in the polls: more than 500 people who paid $500 a head to attend.
Coleman spoke to a small meeting of the St. John’s Rotary Club where the audience paid a few dollars to the Club.
Thanks to the Telegram’s James McLeod, you can compare the two speeches. Since James posted the speeches and Coleman’s scrum to youtube, we’ll also give you those links.
Take the time to listen to the speeches yourself, but here are some observations about the pair of them.
From the industry association representing companies that provide sureties and other bonds, released May 26, 2014:
News Release
For Immediate Release: May 26, 2014
Recent remarks by Nick McGrath, Minister of Transportation and Infrastructure for Newfoundland and Labrador about the use of surety bonds on public projects are completely preposterous. So says Steve Ness, the President of the Surety Association of Canada.
“Mr. McGrath clearly doesn’t understand surety bonds; nor does he comprehend how they work to protect public construction buyers from serious losses.” said Ness. His comments were made in response to a statement made by Minister McGrath following the ministry’s decision to release Humber Valley Paving from its obligations to complete an unfinished project without making a claim on its performance surety bond. The government instead opted to see to the completion itself and has now retendered the uncompleted portion of the project. In explaining this controversial decision, McGrath stated: "If I had called in the bonds, I would not have got the job done on time and on budget," [sic (comma in original)]
Frank Coleman recorded CBC’s On Point with Peter Cowan on Thursday or Friday afternoon.
During the show, Coleman acknowledged that he had a personal financial interest in a decision by transport minister Nick McGrath to let Humber Valley Paving out of a contract without calling the performances bonds associated with the project. Coleman’s son – connected to the company at the time - negotiated with department officials on behalf of the company.
Auditor General Terry Paddon is currently investigating the contract decision based on a request from Premier Tom Marshall.
Whether McGrath should have called the bonds is another question. But Coleman told CBC that he had personally guaranteed the bonds. As a result, he would have been personally on the hook for the bond despite the fact he had sold his interest in Humber Valley Paving three days before his son contacted the department about the contract.
Whether McGrath would have called the bonds or should have is another matter.
Coleman recorded the show well before it aired. But what happened on Friday evening caught everyone by surprise.
Whatever is going on in the Premier’s Office these days, it isn’t an orderly and organized transition from one premier to another.
That’s certain.
Every transition from one premier to another since 1949 - whether it involved a change of party or not - has happened in a matter of a few days or at most a couple of weeks. Your humble e-scribbler was directly involved in two of them and is familiar with most of the rest.
News on Friday that Tom Marshall had fired all but two of his staff doesn’t look like any transition anyone has ever seen.
For those who missed it, here’s the podcast from the Fisheries Broadcast for May 22, complete with your humble e-scribbler talking about politics and the fishery.
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If you want to get a sense of how the New Democratic Party convention actually ran last weekend, take a few minutes and listen to Tony Adey’s interview on CBC’s Corner Brook Morning Show.
Adey attended the convention but announced afterward that he was leaving the party. Adey believes that the convention was stacked and that more New Democrats want to see major changes in the party than the convention vote suggested.
He noted that the chair of the meeting wouldn’t allow debate on the motion about whether or not hold a leadership convention. For all that, they still had to spend 45 minutes answering questions as many of the delegates couldn’t tell if a yes vote would mean the party wouldn’t have a leadership review. Adey also said there was a discrepancy between the number in the room for the vote and the tally of ballots. More people voted, apparently, than were officially in the room.
The most forceful point Adey made in the speech is that Lorraine Michael believes she can be Premier while many people in the party believe that Lorraine has to go so that the party can attract new candidates and move forward.
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