The Kings of Cuts

There’s something about Paul Oram that just seems so familiar.

Maybe it’s his similarities to the equally-perfectly coifed predecessor, Lloyd Matthews.

Yes the father of the Premier’s Chief Publicist occupied the health minister’s office until early 1997 when he was hastily shuffled out.  There was a massive revolt against the way government was handling health care. 

Take a second and read the old news releases from those days though, and you’ll find more than a few things that seem oddly familiar.  Stuff like reviewing health care in central Newfoundland with an eye to what could get “improved”:

Health Minister Lloyd Matthews will take the next 6-8 weeks to fully evaluate and consider the recommendations of the report into health services in Central Newfoundland. KPMG Management Consultants recently presented the final report to the minister following four months of consultation with individuals and organizations throughout the region.

"This review is a comprehensive analysis of current and future health needs for the entire Central Newfoundland region," said Mr. Matthews. "The report looks at the network of primary, secondary, chronic and community based care, and makes recommendations on how these services can be better organized and coordinated to meet existing health needs and to reflect the emerging health needs of residents in the region."

The minister stated he would now be presenting this report to Cabinet for consideration. "Once government has had an opportunity to consider the full report, I will be able to provide further details on health services contained in the report, as well as outline future directions for health services in Central Newfoundland," said Matthews.

The minister thanked all individuals who made presentations or submissions to the consultants during the period of review, for their interest in health service delivery.

Matthews released the review in March, 1997, after announcing it had been received in early January.  The project started the previous June.   It recommended a number of things, including renovations to North Haven Manor in Lewisporte to ensure it could provide service out to 2005.

There are a lot of things in Matthews’ ministerial past that seem oddly familiar to the current generation, as well as a few surprising differences.

Matthews didn’t have much money to play with either as minister or as a member of cabinet generally.  Paul Oram and his cabinet colleagues  - by stark contrast - have access to more cash than any cabinet in the province’s history.

Oram talks about health care cuts.

Matthews’ review of health care in central Newfoundland could note that since the creation of new health care boards (re-organized out of existence by Oram’s clan), day surgery had increased by 70% in Gander. Note, for example, the reference to demographic projections for 2005.

There’s a sense of planning and organization to the whole thing.  The re-organization started with a view to changing how health care money was spent so more could be pushed toward front-line service.   It may not have worked out exactly as intended, but there was a long-range goal based on the knowledge that by 2005ish, the population would be pretty much where it actually turned out to be.  That brought with it certain predictable consequences and government worked to organize a system that could provide needed care within the budget likely to exist.

Sometimes, the differences are startling.  Back in the 1990s, the health minister could commission a report, get it and then release it within six weeks.  When was the last time Oram and his colleagues managed to get a report on the street within six months of getting it in hand? 

Compare as well, Matthews’ language to that used in the past 48 hours or so.  The emphasis on changes in the 1990s was ensuring that the government could continue to meet health care needs despite limited funds and what was anticipated to be skyrocketing demand. 

There’s a decidedly less positive sound to the way Oram put it:

“Our government faces a difficult decision to make regarding the types of services we can offer in the long-term, how much we can continue to invest as a province and identifying how we can improve the quality in our programs and services across the province.”

Still through it all there are some common threads, ones that transcend the superficial nonsense Oram got on with the other day by referring to cuts in the 1990s. 

He might do well to check with some of his predecessors, people who had a real hard time running the department but who managed to get through it with their reputation intact.  Roger Grimes would likely give him a good pile of advice. So too would Herb Kitchen or Julie Bettney.   Lloyd Matthews wouldn’t:  if memory serves, he got into political hot water largely due to the way he presented himself publicly.

How Oram handles himself might determine who really gets remembers as being the Kings of Cuts: Danny Williams and his crew or the guy Danny used to call the King of Cuts.

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Meeker gets behind the ad that is driving ‘em bonkers on The Hill

Geoff Meeker is back from vacation and is lighting things up at his Telegram blog, “Meeker on Media”.

The latest post is the text of an interview with the people behind a series of ads that are keeping political controversy alive in central Newfoundland.

“The reaction from the area MHA's has been disappointing to say the least,” said the spokesperson. “Clearly there are larger influences at work here. Susan Sullivan, whose light was shining so brightly (new MHA, cabinet appointment) has probably dashed her re-election hopes due to her inaction and complicity. Clayton Forsey and Ray Hunter have also placed themselves in jeopardy. Many say that Ray Hunter has achieved his goal of a two-term pension, so does not care either way (his record clearly speaks to this). Municipal officials have been even more inept – Mayor Rex Barnes and his council have failed to grasp the magnitude of this, and have, in fact, been shameless in praising the scraps falling from the provincial government table.”

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Just bear in mind…

the guy who is trying to explain health care decisions is the same guy who is clued out about a bunch of other things.

He’s also gotten himself in hot water over conflict of interest and briefing books and he even briefly turned up with one of the infamous rings from the House of Assembly scandal.

Last summer, as markets were tanking, then-business minister Paul Oram talked about a booming local economy.  In January, he was talking about bright the future will be but with no talk of any big financial problems at home.  Thankfully, the guy has finally wised up, or so it seems when it comes to the unsound state of the provincial government finances.

All that coupled with the inherent contradictions between what Paul Oram has been saying, what the Premier has said publicly,  and what the record shows might just make this health care crisis bleed all over the local political landscape well into the fall.

That Oram-fuelled health issue is on top of the other problems on both the Northern Peninsula and in central Newfoundland related to forestry that just won’t go away no matter how much money the provincial government has been willing to toss at the two areas.

Of course, now Oram and the talk of unsustainable spending built on oil makes it look like it is money government doesn’t have.

It may ell be one of the most interesting fall seasons in a long while in this province’s politics.

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Public money coming for Rolls-Royce

Paul Oram may be having trouble paying the health care bills but his predecessor, Ross Wiseman, apparently has cash for what appears to be an outright give-away to one of the great international symbols of luxury.

Yes, Ross will hand out taxpayer cash to Rolls-Royce.

“Contribution” is the word the provincial government likes to use when it hands over cash to a private sector company, not as a loan with interest.

Let’s see if that’s what it turns out.

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Unsound financial management, the stunning Oram admission

In Budget 2009, we invested $2.6 billion in health and community services.  This is no doubt a significant amount.  This represents a billion dollar increase in the past five years.  While we would like to do everything and meet every demand, that investment is simply unsustainable.

Paul Oram, Minister of Health and Community Services, September 21, 2009 [video file]

Note the date.

Health minister Paul Oram admitted today that the provincial government’s financial management since 2003 has produced a level of government spending that is - in his words -  “unsustainable.”

That is not just Paul Oram’s word.

His remarks were approved at the highest level.

That word  - unsustainable - is the word that the Premier’s Office chose to describe the financial state of the provincial government.

Until now, the Williams administration has prided itself on exactly the opposite. This is a remarkable admission for the Williams administration, an administration that has prided itself on what it claimed was sound management of the public treasury.

Regular readers of Bond Papers have known it for some time.

The earliest use of the word “unsustainable” in connection with provincial government spending was 2006:

What no one knew was that oil would hit US$70 a barrel and the cash would be pouring in at a rate no one in the province had ever seen before. That allowed Danny Williams to avoid making a whole bunch of good decisions and to crank up spending to unprecedented and, and in light of the economic slowdowns, likely unsustainable, heights.

The word turned up again a few months later in a quick look at the 2007 budget:

The current and forecast spending increases are based on optimistic projections for the price of oil in the medium term. Any downward trend in commodity prices (oil, minerals etc) will quickly make the consistent spending increases since 2003 unsustainable. Fiscal reality in those circumstances - taking less money in than is flowing out - would require program cuts, job losses and/or tax increases to correct.

Take a second and go read that post.  You’ll find the “unsustainable” again:

That level of per capita spending [second only to Alberta] is unsustainable in the long run. As a recent Atlantic Institute for Market Studies assessment concluded:

“If the province fails to reign in its whopping per capita government spending (about $8800/person [in FY 2006]) and super-size me civil service (96 provincial government employees /1000 people) it will quickly erode any gains from increased energy revenues.”

That is exactly the situation Paul Oram described today.

Look through Bond Papers and you will see repeated warnings about the unsustainable growth in government spending since 2004/05. 

This is not an exercise in “I-told-you-so”;  let’s clear that out of the way at the start.

This is about something much more significant.

Point One:  The issues are not new and the implications of the issues aren’t new.

Go back further than 2006.

Go back to the early to mid 1990s and you will see forecasts that showed the demographics in the province for the time period we are currently in and that mapped out the implications for health care costs.  Some of those same ideas turned up here in several posts throughout 2007 and 2008 that discussed the very serious financial state facing the provincial government.

Point Two:  Fail to plan;  plan to fail.

The current situation is a direct result of a series of short-term decisions made by the current administration since 2003.  The short-term spending decisions took place in every aspect of spending;  health care just happens to be the one place in the budget where the demand for more spending is greatest and where the implications of spending are also proportionately great..

How do we know the decisions have been made on an ad hoc basis?

Well, the indicators are littered throughout the correspondence released today by the provincial government.

For starters, just look at the dates on the e-mails to the regions.  The provincial government only settled on its spending allocations in late February and even then, the decisions were preliminary.  

Since 2003, the budget process has slipped further and further back in time such that crucial decisions – like gross spending – are not made until a few weeks before the end of the fiscal year. The reality of these letters suggests that budget decisions were not made until well into the current fiscal year. 

Throughout the 1990s and into the early part of this century,  the big picture spending decisions were made before Christmas.  By the time late February rolled around, the individual line items had been settled such that there was very little to decide.  In those days, the only adjustments that came after February would be cuts based on any changes to federal spending.

But in a provincial government where cash hasn’t been an issue, there is really no reason why the annual budget process should be so far out of whack that major budget decisions are still not settled four weeks before the end of the fiscal year.

Secondly, notice that the direction from the department to the regions is simply to freeze spending at 2008 levels.  That’s a short-term decision if ever there was one, not the sign of a decision taken within the context of a longer-term plan.

Thirdly, take a look at the list of options offered up by the boards.  In Central, there is a wide and unconnected list.  On  the one hand there are major program shifts.  On the other, there is an inconsequential cancellation of a single position for a few thousand dollars.  In Western, the increased costs forecast include substantial amounts that have to be annualised.  That is, the initial amounts increase over time as with any program spending. 

None of this is a sign of planning either at the regional or provincial level.  Rather it suggests a series of ad hoc decisions being made in response to ad hoc direction from central authorities.  As can be seen particularly in the letter from Western region and Labrador-Grenfell, significant new projects were started in 2007 and 2008 which need to be continued.  Yet, in preparing for 2009, the long-term implications of these projects are called into question by a predicted downturn in the economy.

In truth, this inconsistent management situation matches up with what we have seen from the provincial government across the board.  Capital works projects take inordinately long times to get start.  Significant legislative measures get lost for upwards of two years and more before they are implemented.   All the delays cost money. 

Point Three:  The solution cannot be more of the same.

One of the most obvious implications of analysis done for the Strategic Social Plan approved by cabinet in December 1995 was that government needed to fundamentally change how it delivered some services if it was going to balance the demand with the ability to supply.

Unfortunately, one of the first acts of the Tobin administration in 1996 was to scrap the SSP and replace it with a pale imitation. Gone were the needed reforms.  What has occurred since 2003 has been a continuation of the situation post-1996, with predictable results.  Until now, the Williams administration has steadfastly refused to acknowledge it faced a very serious problem.

But acknowledging that a problem exists is the first step to setting things right.

With all that as the basis, the next few posts will lay out some ideas for producing fundamental changes aimed at providing a financially sound future for the province.

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The truth is out there…

It just ain’t coming from this Mulder.

labradore notes a curious commentary on Sean Cadigan’s recent history of Newfoundland and Labrador written by someone name Judith MacDonald Guy Mulder from Port Hope, Ontario.  The thing appeared in the weekend Telegram but isn’t online.

Ms. Mulder either did not read or did not understand Cadigan's book.  She mentions several things but does not present anything to rebut Cadigan other than merely to assert that he is just wrong. That is always persuasive.

With that said,  her major grievances appear to be that Cadigan :

1. does not accept the anti-Confederate orthodoxy now in vogue, and,
2. calls Danny Williams a "tycoon".

On the first of these he ought to be commended.

On the second, it is hard to fathom why she objects to calling Williams a word that means a powerful and wealthy businessman.

Isn't that what he is?

Cadigan’s book is worth taking the time to read if you have an open mind and can understand simple English.  The argument Cadigan offers is not complicated or hard to understand. Cadigan is a professional historian but his writing is, as the saying goes, “accessible” and the themes he weaves are equally easy to grasp. 

This is an exceptional overview of  Newfoundland and Labrador history that deserves to be read by more people.

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The Return of the Living Brain Dead

Now that zombie movies are back in fashion, this is only fitting.

The only questions is whether this dream job will trump another dream job for the out-of-work editor cum politician. 

Which one would allow more time with the kids?

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Are they hypocrites?

As Rex Murphy put it, one has to have principles first in order to abandon them.

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Hard to put some black top on that

While the poll goosing machine may have tried to convince the good burghers of Labrador West that they would be seeing pavement before the snow flew, the wise people of the community likely knew far better.

At least this past week, they had the pleasure of listening to transportation minister Trevor Taylor explain why about a month an a half after he and cabinet colleague John “The Shoveller” Hickey  - left, doing his takogo kak puddin’ routine - promised the whole paving thing would be “accelerated”, they would like not be seeing much pavement this year on the Trans-Labrador Highway.

Seems that the contractor on the current tender ran into some problems shipping the equipment up from Sept Isles;  something about too big for the tunnels, so they had to unscrew some bits and dismantle some others.

And if all that wasn’t bad enough, it seems that there was a problem finding enough aggregate – crushed stone to you and moi – to go with the asphalt. 

But that didn’t just shag up the schedule for this year. 

Hoooo, no.

As Trevor told the whole of Labrador via Labrador Morning [mp3 link] that lack of aggregate meant the “accelerated” tender was actually not even out yet.

Trevor insisted though that the direction to the contractor was to do everything possible to get some pavement on the ground this season, even though the daily temperatures in Labrador this time of year hover around the “no go” temp for laying asphalt successfully. 

Apparently, Trevor  - on the right there,  looking over some ice control equipment - wants to make the people of Labrador west know that “we are serious” about the project.

Between the shag-ups with the road and the on-again, off-again hospital it will take a lot more than a teaspoon of hardened tar to convince some people that what they just saw the past couple of months from Hickey and Taylor wasn’t open mike night at Yuk-Yuks.

As it turns out though, the road work will not be accelerated, as anyone with half a clue could have told you. It was always planned for next year, planned that is by the people who do the work and know what they are talking about.

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In humour, veritas

It’s always good to keep a sense of humour, even of you have to wear those cruel shoes.

From 2005, Jack Layton sings the party song.

Blow-out

If the NTV/Telelink poll is correct, Doc O’Keefe will waltz back into the mayor’s job after this month’s municipal election and Ron Ellsworth can start campaigning for the provincial district of St. John’s North.

The poll puts O’Keefe support at 38% with Ron Ellsworth at 17%. Mark Wilson has one percent and 44% are reported as undecided. Bear in mind that Telelink doesn’t distort their numbers by reporting percentage of decideds. Of the 1,030 people they polled, only 17% backed Ellsworth.

Those numbers generally conform to the poll numbers tossed around in rumours since the middle of the summer that supposedly had O’Keefe ahead of Ellsworth by two to one.

Given the past voter turn-outs in St. John’s, you can probably consider that the final results will show that the undecideds actually won’t to vote at all.

In the deputy mayoral race, Shannie Duff leads Keith Coombs 36% to 28%.

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Feds back BC electricity line

The federal government will commit $130 million to help build an electricity line in northern British Columbia.  Total estimated cost of the project is $404 million.

The northwest transmission line, smaller than anything proposed for the Lower Churchill and significantly less costly, is being touted as a way to open up opportunities for new energy projects in the northern most regions of British Columbia. 

The project is also touted as a way of connected Alaska to the North American grid, via BC.

Funding for the project is coming from the Green Infrastructure Fund.

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The Cruel Shoes, Part Two

So if Michael Ignatieff had a hidden agenda about a coalition government, what is it when the Connies and the Dippers form an entente cordiale to keep Stephen Harper in power?

The shoes are cruel when they are on the other foot, but then again, this is the sort of politics Canadians get when the three major political parties are all beset with a leadership malaise.

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R.I. contradicts Dunderdale: no legislative problems and state still interested in power from NL

There is no legislative issue preventing the sale of Lower Churchill power to Rhode Island, according to Governor Donald Carcieri’s office.

Cost was identified as an issue in discussions under a 2007 memorandum of understanding between the state and the provincial government,  but the State of Rhode Island remains interested in the possibility of purchasing electrical power.

That’s not even close to what natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale told the people of Newfoundland and Labrador during the emergency session of the legislature last week:

They found out that they did not have the capacity to negotiate a long-term power purchase agreement with Nalcor on behalf of the Province. Nor were they able, in their Legislature, to do the regulatory changes that were required in order to wheel electricity into the state. Therefore, Mr. Speaker, we learned a lot through that discussion but it was not possible and we have moved on because other customers are in a position to be able to do business with Newfoundland and Labrador.

Nothing had been heard about the MOU from the time it was announced until the questions in the legislature.  Bond Papers labelled it  missing in action.

No double entendres allowed

Evidently one candidate in the St. John’s municipal council election is responsible for stirring a strong response in one voter.

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Sullivan and Michael both wrong about government commitment to anti-scab legislation

New Democratic Party leader Lorraine Michael claimed that Danny Williams committed to introduce a law banning replacement workers during strikes.

Human resources, labour and employment minister Susan Sullivan claims that “[t]he government has never made such a commitment.”

Both are off base.

What actually happened is that cabinet ministers John Hickey and Shawn Skinner both indicated in 2007 that the provincial cabinet was reviewing the issue of labour legislation, including the need for anti-scab laws.

Hickey told CBC:

“Minister Skinner has advised me that inside the department, this whole legislation is under review, [and] I have taken the opportunity to review other legislation across the country … so these are issues that we as a government certainly are looking at dealing with.”

Skinner told the House of Assembly that the province’s labour laws were under review:

… I have indicated that the Labour Relations Agency, through its Strategic Partnership Initiative, is undertaking a review of all of the labour legislation in the Province. That will look at whatever the union representatives on that committee and the employer representatives on that committee wish to bring to the table for discussion. Once that review is complete, we will be in a better position at that time to look at the kinds of things will need to be updated in the legislation.

…

MS. JONES:  …My question today to the minister is: Are you prepared to move up the agenda on anti-scab legislation and have it brought to the House of Assembly so that we do not have situations like we have at Voisey’s Bay in the future?

MR. SPEAKER: The hon. the Minister of Human Resources, Labour and Employment.

SOME HON. MEMBERS: Hear, hear!

MR. SKINNER: Mr. Speaker, as I have indicated in my earlier remarks, we do have a strategic partnership between our Labour Relations Agency, the unions and the employers representative groups in this Province. We have a process in place that all parties have agreed to follow, and we will be following that process to do a thorough review and to make sure that any and all issues that are important to the people of this Province, be they employers or be they employees, will be reviewed and will be brought forward for consideration by the government.

We have undertaken that commitment, we will fulfil that commitment, and once we know what the results of that are we will decide then what actions can be taken.

Danny Williams might not have made a commitment about anti-scab legislation but two of his cabinet ministers sure did.

What Sullivan needed to explain is not who made a commitment but why it is taking more than two years to complete a review of the province’s labour laws.

Is this another example of something gone missing in action in the bowels of the Confederation Building?

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Yep, there’s always room for more fire trucks

Fire-truck month is not quite over.

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Pushing buttons: technology and campaigns

While most candidates in the St. John’s municipal election have embraced some form of technology to support their campaign, the level of usage and the sophistication varies widely.

On one end of the spectrum you’ve got Ward Three candidate Bruce Tilley and his Web 0.5 beta site that looks like it was left over from the days when the Internet ran on vacuum tubes.

There’s no one who has fully embraced Web Campaign 2.0, but some are pretty close.

Like Shannie Duff and Simon Lono. Both have the social media add-ons like Twitter and they update them frequently. Both are also using videos through youtube to help spread their views. 

Those are just two;  their are others like Sheilagh O’Leary or Debbie Hanlon who are making maximum use of the facebook space to keep their network of dedicated supporters informed an up-to-date.

Others have got the look down, but the content is lacking, like any of the mayoral contenders or Keith Coombs.

Doc O’Keefe has a really expensive electronic brochure but then again that’s what you get when you hire an advertising agency. It’s all non-threatening designer beige and even the photos of the candidate are retouched packages of pure crud. 

Human beings simply do not look like this.  Borg have healthier skin tones.   There’s a calculated effort here to be inoffensive but the effect is so calculated and so miserably executed that it comes off being offensive and obnoxious.

 Ron Ellsworth’s site looks good, but there are some inconsistencies in the content that mar the overall package.  He has a section called “My approach” and the sub-headings are about “Our” this and that.  There are plenty of these jarring internal contradictions in Ellsworth’s campaign.  Think a plan where the first action item is to develop a plan. Altogether, these suggest Ellsworth hasn’t got his political shit together or his campaign team is so inexperienced or otherwise incapable that they can’t get a bit of focus to the message.

Take Twitter as another example. Ron’s got it, but one suspects he’s got it because someone told him that’s what campaigns need to look good.   But Twitter is the sort of thing that hyper-caffeinated hamster people with crackberries use to keep people notified of the bathroom habits or random firings of the few synapses left in their brains.  Some of them are so wired they are proof  a monkey can sometimes luck out and type a coherent sentence with just their thumbs.

Okay, so that’s a bit of an exaggeration.

But when a guy uses Twitter like a stone tablet in cuneiform – google it, people on your iPhone -  you know that  Ellsworth can talk about engaging people but he has no idea how to actually do it. 

But if you want to get a taste for raw energy and the sort of straight-up presentation the Web 2.0 technology can deliver, check out Lono’s virtual door-to-doors. 

Specifically have a look at the one on community, taxes and services.  It should raise a few hackles but it speaks very loudly and very deliberately to a raft of voters in the west end of St. John’s.  Curb-side recycling is funny but the humour is an entree to a simple message about the need to just get on with better waste management.

The two that are getting the most attention are two you might expect to, though.  Bally Hally speaks directly to an election issue and one that will face the next council.  Lono makes his position clear. Lono’s call for a municipal auditor general seems to have struck a nerve with people too, if the number of visitors is any indication.

There are plenty of ways to use technology in political campaigns. You can see the full spectrum in the St. John’s municipal race.

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Half-million in free money for local business

Called a contribution, $500,000 handed out today to a local offshore supply and service company from the provincial government doesn’t have to be repaid.

The criteria for getting the cash are, in a word, vague.

The promotional material talks about technology transfer and large-scale local enterprises.  The actual eligibility criteria are much less stringent.  The job creation and other benefits to flow from the project are – in the words of the business department – required to be merely “incremental”.

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Way less for way more in Lewisporte

While everyone is talking about the removal of laboratory and x-ray services from Lewisporte, a much larger cut seems to have escaped public attention.

The proposed redevelopment of the chronic care centre at North haven Manor was supposed to include acute care facilities as well.  The original budgeted cost was $20 million.

When people started to complain about the lab and x-ray business, the initial government response from no less a personage than the local member of the legislature was that people should be mindful of the $30 million health centre that was coming to town.

Now a 50% cost over-run sounded bad enough, the more accurate version of the whole story is found in the local newspaper – the Lewisporte Packet – from August 12.

Turns out that the original concept had ballooned in cost to $42 million.  Not so much as a single shovel had been soiled by local mud and the thing had jumped 110% in cost.  The provincial government’s response was to hack out most if not all of the acute care facilities, bringing the cost down to the low 30s.

"The one-roof health facility project was estimated to be around $20 million. It escalated to be about $40 million, in fact over $40 million," Mr. Oram explained. "As a government we had to look at where our priorities lie and we had to prioritize based on the identified needs.

"The project is still going to be - from our estimates - around $30 million for North Haven Manor and some other components as well. There's no way to keep it under $30 million to do what we want to do there and to meet the needs that we see as being in the Lewisporte area - this is the amount of money we are going to have to spend to do it."

The slash to laboratory and x-ray facilities was on top of that $12 million cut.

If all that weren’t bad enough,  the story is already widening.

Health minister Paul Oram is taking it in the head for the way the information on the x-ray and lab changes was released in the first place, let alone the way the new information flopped out last Friday.

The letters released last Friday have given risen to concerns in other communities that cuts are coming there as well. But even in trying to allay concerns, the health minister just made matters worse:  all health regions were asked to identify cuts, according to Oram. 

Now what he said is absolutely true but in the context, he is only adding gasoline to his own backside.  In his initial bluster, Oram stated clearly that further changes – always read as cuts – are coming.

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Related:  “Much less for may more for St. Anthony”

Reaping the wind

A little over a year after the contract was awarded, Technip and StatoilHydro have launched the first floating wind turbine offshore Norway.

The turbine has a reported capacity of 2.3 megawatts in its location 10 kilometres out to sea.

StatoilHydro is also involved in a project to install wind generators offshore the United Kingdom.

The 315 megawatt project is expected to be in service by 2011.

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The joy of accountability

Here’s a picture of a government being held accountable for its actions.

At left is a picture of  the parliamentary secretary to the government house leader in the House of Commons tabling responses to questions on the order paper put there by the opposition Liberals before the House rose for its summer break.

It could be subtitled: “How I spent my summer vacation.”

There are a few things to notice here.

First of all, there are thousands of pages of documents made public in response to questions asked by members of the national legislature.

It’s part of what they get paid to do, asking questions and it’s part of what the government gets paid to do:  answer them.

Second of all, in Ottawa they still use the time-honoured tradition of questions on the order paper.  These are inquiries into government decisions or policies that are posed in order to elicit as full and complete a response as possible.  They are done free of charge, unlike ATIPs which carry costs.

In the 1980s, the Peckford crew kept the House closed so much they essentially forced the opposition to use freedom of information laws to get what they should have obtained for free in the House.

In the Tobin era, the members of the whole House came to the conclusion they should do away with order paper questions for most things.  All in the House were more comfortable with that situation and evidently some of them needed more time to file expense claims. 

That tradition continues such that the opposition in Newfoundland and Labrador doesn’t get to use the order paper as it is supposed to be used, they get fewer sitting days in the legislature to pose the questions they might pose in the first place, and then to make it worse, they have to submit access to information requests and pay for them out of the budget which the government deliberately  keeps tight.

Talk about setting up a system that restricts the flow of information and thereby hampers accountability.  Let’s not even get into the issue of how the government answers  – or to be correct  - tires desperately not to answer simple questions, regardless of who is posing them.

But don’t worry about that.

Just look at the mound of information the government had to cough up.

Would that governments that talked a good game on accountability could actually deliver  in proportion to their self-congratulatory rhetoric.

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There are no coincidences, Northern Peninsula version

There is absolutely no connection between a sudden announcement that the Premier would make a big money announcement within two hours and the screaming headline on the front page of the local paper about  people being upset over cuts to health care.

No connection.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

Click the picture to get the online version of the story.

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Much less for way more in St. Anthony

Costs for a new sports and conference centre for St. Anthony have already jumped 70% over the original budget and no one has even broken ground on the new Polar Centre yet.

In January  2007, the new centre was estimated to cost $5.676 million. By May, 2009, the project was estimated to cost $9.557 million.

But here’s the thing:  the higher cost facility will actually be a fraction of the original project.

In 2007, the new facility was supposed to include an arena seating “1,295 people, a conference centre, an indoor walking track, and will provide the necessary amenities to enable the town to host significant conferences, trade shows and other events.”

The centre announced on Monday by no less a personage than the Premier himself will house only 540 spectators and won’t have any of the conference and trade show facilities.

The Premier was in St. Anthony to announce that tenders would be called shortly for site preparation on the new arena which will be tacked onto a brand new multi-million school housing students from kindergarten to Grade 12.  Total estimated cost for the combined project is $28 million.

For those who might think the Polar Centre is still alive, guess again.  The town council still has a news release trumpeting the 1295 seat arena, but a news story in the latest Northern Pen puts it all in order:

To avoid excess engineering work the province plans to select an existing plan for one of the many K-12's built around the province in recent years. That plan would be modified to allow the school to connect to the proposed Polar Centre and to fit other local concerns.

But even the new construction project doesn’t mean the arena will have all the amenities announced on Monday:

Mayor [Boyd] Noel warned that the facility council wanted to build would have cost $15-16 million and because it's only been approved for $10-million by the province there will be significant cutbacks. One of those cutbacks is the possible loss of a planned walking track around the arena.

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Questions in search of answers

Just a few observations on announcements from the province’s health ministry lately.

1.  labradore points out that others – like the local news media -  are noticing the odd but telling similarity between the Lewisporte cuts announcement and the one from Eastern Health about breast cancer back in April.

So much for the story then and now that it was all up to the local health authority.

2.  During Cameron, every senior government witness insisted that all the decisions were made by the people at the health authority because that’s what they do; ministers of health and cabinet did not get involved in operational issues.

Like say, deciding whether to shut down laboratory and x-ray services.

Who decided on an operational issue in the Lewisporte case?

Hint:  it wasn’t the regional health authorities.  They found out about the cut the morning it was announced.

3.  And how many times will a cabinet minister refer to the recommendations of the Cameron Inquiry in trying to justify the operational decision made in Lewisporte?

4.  Then there’s the claim by no less a personage than the Premier that the cuts came from the health authorities and that it was aimed at improving the system.

He claims the health authority made a recommendation “to us” for services that should be cut.

He leaves out the important bit, of course, that the health authority didn’t come up with this idea on their own.   They suggested cuts  only when prompted by a request from the health department to suggest cuts in the first place.

And the cuts had nothing to do with either offsetting the cost of the health centre in Lewisporte (as the Friday release claims) or “improving” the system.

That’s plain from the letters released by government late on Friday.

But don’t take my word for it:  Read them for yourself.

5.  And since we are in the questioning mood:  why would a provincial government that is evidently flush with billions in loose change ask for recommendations on what to cut from health budgets in the first place, especially when the sum finally settled on by  - whom?  cabinet, the Premier, definitely Paul Oram – was such a measly, miserable amount?

And that’s based on nothing more than the general political principle that you just don’t go out and randomly shoot off a body part when you don’t need to. 

Cuts make people upset.

Cuts to health care make lots of people really upset.

Burn ‘em at the stake kinda upset.

And they don’t get un-upset easily.

Un-upsetting them will be costly either in blood and/or treasure:  cash or in political strips taken off someone’s hide.

Therefore, as the political wisdom would suggest:  do NOT cut health care unless it is absolutely necessary.

So why in the name of all that is political and therefore unholy would any cabinet in its right mind ask health regions to recommend a list of slashes, some of them valued at upwards of a million bucks.

6.   When did they make the decisions?  Observers of government will note the date on the letters released on Friday is from early 2009, well into the budget cycle and long after decisions would normally be made.  People will start asking hard questions about when all this was decided. Evidently it wasn’t in August.

7.  There is no plan. And when all that is done, ask yourself why a government department would release letters that show their initial talking points were more composed at the Mad hatter’s tea party?

Usually you release evidence that backs your claim, not further hints that – contrary to the Premier’s claims at the bored of trayed last week - people in the departments of government have no idea what they are doing.

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Duff points out obvious: Keith Coombs has no cred on city finances

Okay, right off the bat there has to be the fairly obvious point:  the guy who oversaw the Mile One stadium money pit and has been known to talk about surpluses that turned into horrendous deficits is not a guy with a huge amount of credibility when it comes to numbers anyway. 

If Keith Coombs said one plus one is two, most people in St. John’s would run it through the calculator just to check.

Anyway, Shannie Duff is quite rightly pointing out that challenger Keith Coombs claim that there is a $44 million surplus in the municipal budget is “unsubstantiated”.

But here’s the thing Shannie:  Coomb’s claim is not irresponsible.  It is total typical Keith Coombs fiscal bullshit.

Call it what it is:  bullshit.  When people hear “Keith Coombs” they already think “crap” right away.  It’s Pavlovian. So don’t be coy and polite.  Call a spade a spade:  Keith Coombs is full of fiscal crap. People will cheer your unbridled honesty.

Anyway, here’s Duff’s version:

Duff says Coombs’ $44 Million Tax Claim Irresponsible

Deputy Mayor candidate Shannie Duff says her opponent's claim that the City of St. John's expects a total surplus of $44 million over the next four years is "unsubstantiated."  "Does it really exist?" asks Duff.

On Friday Ms. Duff met with the City's comptroller to discuss Keith Coomb's claim that the city expects annual tax surpluses of $11 million per year for the next four years.

Mr. Coombs has based a promise to vote against any increase in taxation, according to his website, "without impacting on the level of services offered."

"The forecast of a tax surplus appears to be based on an internal planning document which made several significant assumptions which Mr. Coombs has conveniently chosen to ignore" says Duff. "The internal document assumes the City's current level of expenditures remains constant, but we know there are negotiated payroll increases coming, we know all of the bids for our tenders are coming back in excess of the money we have budgeted, and we have to account for inflation" notes Duff.

The significant cost of curb side recycling program scheduled to be introduced next year is not part of the expenditure forecast in the internal document.  "What is Mr. Coombs going to do about that?  Cut it?" asks Duff.

Shannie Duff says Mr. Coombs' promise is "old politics at its worst.  For a candidate who keeps talking about going forward, Keith Coombs is campaigning like a relic from the past."

- 30 -

Shannie's Statement from the Rogers Candidates Forum

I think most voters would agree that what a politician does is more important that what a politician says.

I am proud of my record at City Hall. Whether the issue has been protection of our environment, affordable housing, social justice, or support for neighbourhood groups I have been there.

I have also been a voice for a balanced approach to planning and development. We have to find a balance between growth and protecting the social, cultural, and heritage assets that make St. John's a creative and livable city.

What do I mean by balance?

I support good development that is appropriate for its location
I support change when it is in the public interest.
I support fairness in dealing with development applications.
I supported 1.6 billion dollars of development in St. John's since 2001.

There is a difference between my opponent and I. I don't want just any development. I want good development.

My opponent is also promising to give back to taxpayers $44 million over the next four years. Does this surplus really exist?

My opponent's claim is based on a preliminary internal document developed to assist staff with budget preparations.

The document's assumptions do not include any provision for a reduction of high property tax assessments if people appeal (as they will).

It does not include the start up costs for Robin Hood Bay or the new sewerage treatment plant.

There is no provision for inflation for providing our existing services, and we know all of our tenders have come back at prices over our estimates.

I think Council will cut the mill rate, but who ho has a crystal ball to predict a surplus four years out? City staff told Council that this forecast was very preliminary, based on some major assumptions, and not for public release. Perhaps if my opponent had attended any meetings of the Finance committee or the Internal Audit committee he would have known this.

My opponent isn't the first politician to promise to cut taxes during an election. It is easy to say.

I say, judge me on my record. Judge me on what I have done.

If you share my passion for this wonderful city of ours, then I ask you for your support, again, and I thank you.

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The Cruel Shoes

The picture says it all.

Suddenly, Jack Layton is suddenly not so keen on an election.  He’s talking about making parliament work, about working with the Connies.  You know, the sort of stuff Jack and his householders used to chide the Grits over.

An unusually media-skittish Mr. Layton said little Saturday during an event in Toronto, but what he did say lowered the temperature somewhat.

“I think that everybody involved would want to see us co-operate in the House of Commons and get some results for people — especially those that are struggling right now: the unemployed and people being left behind,” Mr. Layton said as he inched away from reporters at an archway opening in Toronto.

“So that's going to remain our preoccupation.”

Looks like the real preoccupation will be getting the shoe that’s on the other foot out of Jack’s ass.  Hint:  it went in via the mouth while he was shooting it off before.

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Megamania: NL falls farther behind in wind energy development

While it has huge potential in wind energy, Newfoundland and Labrador currently has less than 60 megawatts in production or in development.

There are no plans for more and the province’s 2007 energy plan places tight restrictions on development of any additional wind energy.  The plan talks about potential but ensures that there is little chance the potential will be developed.

For electricity, the energy plan is focused on development of the Lower Churchill to the exclusion of all else.

As a rest of the political obsession with turf wars and 40 year old megaprojects, the province  - already well back in the pack - is falling farther and farther behind in a race where it should be leading.

1.  Hydro Quebec is pushing ahead with development of new energy technologies.  It’s looking for 500 new megawatts of wind energy.  That’s on top of existing projects and the ones in train.

Hydro-Québec has invited municipalities and native groups to compete for 500 megawatts of wind power contracts. Wind farms in the utility's third call for tenders must not exceed 25 megawatts.

The company’s strategic plan forecasts upwards of 4,000 megawatts of wind generation over the next four years.

2.  Wolfe Island wind farm official opened.  Canadian Hydro officially opened the Wolfe Island wind project this past week.  The project is the second largest wind farm in Canada and generates slightly less than 200 megawatts.

3.  Norway just installed the first floating turbine to harness offshore wind energy.

4.  Work on a $1.5 billion offshore wind farm in Rhode Island is continuing apace.

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From the rumour mill: municipal politics version

Stuff you hear around.

Could be real.

Could be something else.

You decide.

1. Win or lose – and more likely the latter than the former - Rompin’ Rip-Off Ronnie Ellsworth will ditch municipal politics to run in St. John’s North in the next provincial election. 

The guy has made no secret of his aggressive ambitions that go all the way to being the second Cable Guy to occupy the Eighth Floor.   Ever notice Ron’s love of words like “piece” and how he has tried to copy other aspects of his idol’s political approach?

Ronnie’s rapid rise – never more than 18 months in a political job  - fits perfectly with the timetable to replace  the geriatric Tory incumbent and then 18 months after that look to replace his political heartthrob.

2.  Win or lose  - again more likely the latter than the former - Keith Coombs will look to run in St. John’s West in the next provincial election when the geriatric Tory incumbent in that seat finally retires. 

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From the rumour mill: electricity stuff you hear around town

A compendium of the stuff ordinary people have been saying. 

Could be true.

Could be complete bullshit.

1.   NALCO will have to do a major re-write on its Lower Churchill project to correct deficiencies.  That’s what you get for relying on a decade old pile of paper.

2.   Danny Williams’ attack on Hydro Quebec was a sign that his dream legacy project is screwed up royally, with little hope of ever being built no matter how long he stays in office. 

3.   The little hissy fit was a sign of his usual impulsive decision-making style. Williams was so pissed by Russell Wangersky’s column in the weekend Telegram that Williams had to stick a denial into his speech at the board of trade.

4.   Williams will use his hissy fit as the excuse when the re-write comes.  He’ll claim there is some sort of plot or conspiracy aimed at keeping the Lower Churchill project from being built, while the real reason the project is screwed up is because of the way it’s being run.  Williams is recycling excuses from decades ago but some people are ready to believe anything even after the government inked a deal in April that shows that Hydro Quebec can’t block the Pet Project.

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Hydro Quebec not an issue: Ed Martin

A few days before Danny Williams tried to blame Hydro-Quebec for delays and problems in the Lower Churchill project, NALCO chief executive Ed Martin was singing the same old song about what a great project he had and how any day now he’d be ready to start talking to prospective customers about a sale.

He’s been saying that for three years.

But here’s part of what you’ll find in the August 31 Toronto Star:

Martin doesn't see the Quebec issue as a major stumbling block, as regulation requires the province to allow access to its grid in return for a set tariff. Hydro Quebec and Nalcor are just working out the details.

That’s the exact opposite of the line Danny has been pushing for a week or so, now.

You can also notice in this piece that  - according to Martin - the project will be financed at least in part by oil revenues.  Some of those are flowing now from White Rose, but others won’t be along for the better part of the next decade.

Ed Martin is going to have to pull off some neat financial tricks if he plans to pay for a $10 to $14 billion project  Danny Williams said will be pushing power in 2015 when the cash Martin is counting on won’t start showing up at his front door until around 2020. 

But anyway…

Ed needs to talk to Danny or vice versa.  Basically these guys are on two completely different pages about this project. 

Then again, Danny and others seem to be on different pages quite a bit lately, including with himself over Hydro-Quebec and an ownership stake in the Lower Churchill.

Rest assured though, that as much as Danny Williams and his team appear to be all over the map, there is a piece of paper somewhere with the word plan written on the top of it.

At least that’s what he felt compelled to tell the local board of trade the other day after a local newspaper editor pointed out the decidedly errat…mercuri…caprici…ummm…errr… impulsive way the provincial government tends to be. 

Well, he said “slaphappy” too, but let’s use impulsive because it is a bit friendlier than most of the words that come to mind.

-srbp-

Signing his own death warrant

Newfoundland and Labrador information commissioner Ed Ring is welcoming a  court case that will settle once and for all a dispute with the provincial government over access to government records.

The provincial government is insisting Ring shouldn’t have access to documents as part of his review under the province’s open records law.  That law currently gives Ring the powers of a commissioner under the public inquiries act to compel the delivery of any and all documents he deems relevant to discharging his responsibilities.

Danny Williams disagrees.

Now a judge will get to sort it out.

Of course, those of us who know Ed Ring personally wouldn’t expect anything from him but exactly this thoughtful and responsible discharge of his duties as set out by law.

Let’s just hope that if the judge sides with Ring, the powers that be don’t decide Ring must be replaced with someone considerably more pliable.   it would be a shame that doing his job and speaking his mind wound up being a case of the guy signing the death warrant for his own job.

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Just say “No!”

Federal finance leprechaun Jim Flaherty thinks the federal government will take a while to get out of deficit spending and doing that will take a bit of pain.

"I am telling Canadians today that if a politician tries to tell you that getting back to surplus will be pain-free, they are simply not telling you the truth," Flaherty said.

"It will require a lot of saying 'no' to pet projects and special interests."

Flaherty forecast the federal government will be running deficits until 2015.  In the meantime, the priority will be on economic stimulus spending and restraining growth in programs.

Guess that means projects requiring tens of billions of federal tax dollars, that currently have no customers  - and no sign of customers - for their output, and that are running way behind schedule are going to be SOL.

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Oram and Williams give wildly contradictory accounts of Lewisporte decision

As a sharp-eared reader picked up, the raw video of the Premier’s scrum revealed that Lewisporte MHA Wade Verge knew about cuts to health service in his district some time before July 9, 2009.

That’s the day Premier Danny Williams shuffled Ross Wiseman out of health and moved Paul Oram in.

The decision wasn’t announced until August 31, almost two months later.  And even then, some people claim,  the wording of the news release didn’t make plain what was happening in the affected communities.

The regional health authorities involved didn’t hear about the changes until the morning they were announced.

But even that is now at odds with comments by health minister Paul Oram.  Under questioning in the House of Assembly on Wednesday, Oram said the decision was made after a trip he made to the region to discuss the issue with local officials:

The fact is that this decision was made during discussions, Mr. Speaker, with Central Health and Community Services, also with discussions that we had ongoing with the community. The fact of the matter is, we went out to Lewisporte, and we told them very clearly that this facility would not be built or put inside of the new facility. We would not have X-ray and lab inside of the new facility. That is exactly what we told them, Mr. Speaker. They understood where we were coming from and we moved forward on that basis.

SOME HON. MEMBERS: Hear, hear!

MR. SPEAKER: The hon. the Leader of the Opposition.

MS JONES: Mr. Speaker, I ask the minister: Isn’t it true that you told the people in Lewisporte at that time that there would not be a one-roof concept for lab and X-ray services, but you did not tell them you were prepared to gut their service within two weeks, did you?

MR. SPEAKER: The hon. the Minister of Health and Community Services.

SOME HON. MEMBERS: Hear, hear!

MR. ORAM: Mr. Speaker, I said exactly what I said, and that was that there would be no laboratory and X-ray services under the one roof in the new facility that we were building in Lewisporte. In terms of –

MS JONES: (Inaudible).

MR. ORAM: - if she would let me answer. In terms of a discussion around what was happening with closing out the lab and X-ray part of what we were doing in Lewisporte, that discussion was had but there was no final decision made on that when I was out in Lewisporte.

Either the Premier has his story shagged up or Oram does.

Which is it?

 

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Expropriation by the numbers

At long last the rest of us get to see some of the simple print ads that have been causing such political consternation in central Newfoundland among the supporters of the current administration.

There are a series of them, some of which connect the amount of money to specific things like number of magnetic resonance imaging machines you could buy with the cash.

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Freedom from Information: thousands of bucks for the Premier’s public speeches, redacted

It’s a bit of a hairy-assed editing job but the youtube video posted by VOCM includes a curious reference by the Premier to some of the access to information requests that he finds problematic.

You’ll find it at around the 1:45 mark. 

Danny Williams bitches about a request for copies of every speech he’s given as a politician.

That’s right. 

The guy who used to think that openness and freedom of information are good things has a problem with someone wanting copies of speeches he gave in public and for which texts exist.

This is the kind of thing that politicians would normally make readily available as a matter of course via the Internet.

Take a second a look around the Internet.  Try googling “speaking notes”  Politicians actually like people to find their speeches, even when the speeches are appallingly bad. 

Why back in the time before the Internet, when your humble e-scribbler used to edit transcripts of speeches by another Premier, the Premier’s Office would photocopy and send out speeches  - wait for it - free of charge, on request.  If the Internet had existed, we’d have published the damn things on the Internet as soon as we could largely because the Internet is a free means to disseminate information. 

in those days, speeches were records of government policy.  They were important because people could actually hold government accountable as a result of things said in speeches. And that Premier understood that as uncomfortable as it might be, the public had a right to hold their elected officials to account.   Certainly, no one in his office spent time micromanaging the living hell out of the entire government access to information system.

But that was then.

This is now.

And  the people looking for stuff like speeches are not people out to get this Premier or any other politician.  Ordinary folks like to see what commitments were made.  Academics like to see what was said and trace the history of an idea.  It’s all legitimate, normal and nothing for someone  - especially a politician - to get into a paranoiac lather over. 

But just take a breath and think about where Danny Williams’ head is on freedom of information.

Not only does Danny Williams force people to file an access to information request for copies of speeches he has given – they aren’t available otherwise -  he then bitches about the fact that people are interested in what he has to say.

Now in the case of that particular request, your humble e-scribbler happens to know about it.  An e-mail turned up in ye olde Bond Papers inbox giving the background and the horrendous amount of money Danny Williams’ office was demanding for delivering the speeches in hard copy only, even though they are available electronically.

If memory serves, we are talking thousands of dollars.  The speeches had to be produced in hard copy – supposedly – because the Premier’s Office claimed the speeches that were delivered in various public fora would have to be reviewed and possibly redacted.

Redacted?

Bits cut out of a public speech?

And no, they weren’t kidding.

The whole thing has gone off to the information commissioner where it sits, alongside a few other examples of the Premier’s Office efforts to frustrate public disclosure of information that should be in the public domain.

And people wonder why Alice in Wonderland is an apt source of metaphors for politics in Newfoundland and Labrador.

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Cross Rhode Island off the power purchase list

Remember the missing memorandum of understanding with Rhode Island that was supposed to study shipping a couple of hundred megawatts of power from the Lower Churchill if nit gets built?

Yeah, it’s been missing in action for two years.

Well, it turns out that the whole process discovered that Rhode Island can’t handle the power. That little gem came up during Question Period in the emergency legislature session:

They found out that they did not have the capacity to negotiate a long-term power purchase agreement with Nalcor on behalf of the Province. Nor were they able, in their Legislature, to do the regulatory changes that were required in order to wheel electricity into the state. Therefore, Mr. Speaker, we learned a lot through that discussion but it was not possible and we have moved on because other customers are in a position to be able to do business with Newfoundland and Labrador.

The only problem with that answer is that  - like many things natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale says - it doesn’t make sense.

First of all, the MOU was supposed to "develop and action plan to address any technical or regulatory requirements.  Throwing up hands and calling things off wasn’t supposed to be an option.

Second of all, while Rhode Island has a limited capacity to get power into the state, that was known at the time the MOU was signed.

Third of all, there’s a plan to deal with that.

Fourth of all, Rhode Island, as a state of the union like all the rest, has the legislative competence in the state legislature to make rules about energy.  They’ve been doing it for years.

This sounds a lot like Dunderdale’s efforts to discuss energy wheeling through New Brunswick on Tuesday when she kept talking about applications in front of something she called the “Ray-zhay”.  The “ray-zhee” is the Quebec energy regulator.

But wait.

It gets better.

When asked what other customers the province’s energy geniuses were talking to, Dunderdale listed off provinces and states that are on everyone’s list of potential customers.  The implication of Dunderdale’s answer was that none of them were likely customers.

And that gentle readers is the problem with this project:  there are no customers on tap. 

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Techie update:  An e-mail from someone who knows these things advises that interstate transmission is regulated by a federal agency – FERC – which would be the same one that enables Canadian provinces to wheel power to places like New York.

Any Canadian province should be able to wheel power across several states provided it pays the appropriate costs and can, therefore, get it to the customer at a reasonable cost.

A curious misuse of words

Over the past couple of years, Premier Danny Williams and his cabinet got into the habit of referring to 2041 as the year that the Churchill Falls hydro project and all its power would be “repatriated” to Newfoundland and Labrador.

Leave aside the Mad Hatterish implication of talking about a river as if it had somehow been removed physically from the province.  Just look at the words used by the Premier Hisself:

2007 – Danny Williams’ speech to the Board of Trade: 

And in 2041, we will repatriate the Upper Churchill and take back what is rightfully ours. [Underlining in original]

2008 – Danny Williams, on the occasion of a land claims deal with the Innu:

"We all look forward, with great anticipation, to that day in 2041 when the Upper Churchill is finally repatriated to our province, once and for all," Williams said.

2009 – Danny Williams, during his little tirade aimed at Randy Simms:

And as well by then we will have wind on, we’ll have gas on, we’ll have the Churchill on, we will have repatriated the Upper Churchill, a lot of wonderful things happening in Newfoundland and Labrador and…

Hmmm.

Some of you may be wondering what is so special about 2041.  Well, that’s the year the contract with Hydro Quebec expires, the contract that sees power go to Hydro Quebec at ridiculously low prices.  In 2041,  Churchill Falls (Labrador) Corporation will find itself with 5400 megawatts of power and the ability to sell the power to whatever customer comes knocking.

And what of Hydro Quebec?

Well, it will still own one third of CF(L)Co unless it sheds its shares in the meantime. 

So with the Quebec Crown corporation still owning one third of Churchill Falls, the falls wouldn’t exactly be “repatriated” then, would they?  Hydro Quebec would still get a huge piece of the action from the falls.  That hardly seems like any sort of redress for the grievance found in the original contract.
But here’s the question:

When – if ever – might the falls be considered to revert entirely, and unquestionably, to the people of Newfoundland and Labrador?

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NL caught screwing with Churchill Falls: the quotes

Yet more on the story of the year that everyone has thus far ignored.

1.  What part of “F**k off!” wasn’t clear?

From Dave Bartlett’s story on page three of the Wednesday Telegram (not online):

“They [Churchill Falls (Labrador) Corporation lawyers and directors] felt that we had extinguished their rights to the whole watershed area that they require to produce electricity in the Upper Churchill and that would cause them some concern,” said [natural resources minister Kathy] Dunderdale.

Dunderdale is quoted elsewhere in the story as saying that there was possibly some “ambiguity” in the 2008 legislation.  “Ambiguity” means doubtfulness or uncertainty over the meaning of words or phrases. 

Extinguishing a company’s rights to their business doesn’t sound like something that is a bit “iffy”.

2.  I don’t think that’s the conspiracy they meant…

Kathy Dunderdale, from debate on emergency legislation to change the “ambiguous” wording of the water rights reversion bill to something a bit more concrete:

Mr. Speaker, my head is kind of spinning with some of the things that we have heard here today. There are conspiracy theories all over the place. So much of this, of what we heard this afternoon, is so far out in left field that I am not even going to bother to comment on it, Mr. Speaker.

…

Certainly I am not assigning, nor is this government assigning, any motive to the board of CF(L)Co. We believe that they are negotiating this agreement in good faith. CF(L)Co has an issue, the lawyers have an issue, with the definition as it exists in the current legislation, and because of that ambiguity that is in that legislation we are back here today doing the amendment.

Of course not, Kathy.  The people who found out you were trying to f*ck them over would logically not be the ones with ulterior motives.

But since you insist you weren’t trying to screw them (now that you got caught)  let’s leave it at that.

3.  Dunderdale, on one alternative to the emergency session:

If this definition issue caused CF(L)Co to delay entering into the agreement Nalcor Energy still had the option of placing the proposed agreement in front of the Public Utilities Board and asking for an agreement to be imposed upon the parties. This would be a legitimate process, Mr. Speaker, as provided for under the legislation, but it would take up valuable time - time that is better applied to other tasks before us in advancing the project.

Furthermore, Mr. Speaker, if the agreement was put before the PUB for consideration, the PUB will be considering a proposed agreement that was subject to the same ambiguous definition of the Lower Churchill River raised by CF(L)Co.

Translation:  we were really worried about costly, embarrassing and ultimately unsuccessful legal action when CF(L)Co sued our asses off.  calling the House together in a hurry is way cheaper.

4.  No deal is imminent.  There are a few people running around St. John’s who think this emergency session means there’s a Lower Churchill deal around the corner.

Guess again.

There are only two serious issues holding up the project:  markets and money.  Four years after the “go it alone” option, note what Dunderdale listed in the House as two of the outstanding issues to be settled:

Some of these outstanding issues include ratification of the New Dawn Agreement with Innu Nation; an environmental assessment, which is expected to be complete next year; finding customers for the power, and obtaining financing for the project… [ Emphasis added]

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Churchill Falls reversion fails for second time

The Newfoundland and Labrador government  is making quick changes to a 2008 law after lawyers for the Churchill Falls (Labrador) Corporation  - CF(L)Co – raised questions about the impact of the bill on the company’s 1961 lease and rights to all property related to Churchill Falls.

Lawyers for CF(L)Co raised the issue with the provincial government’s  NALCOR Energy company during talks on water management for the proposed Lower Churchill project. 

The changes were tabled Tuesday in an emergency sitting of the House of Assembly.

It appears that - reminiscent of the 1980 water rights reversion bill - the 2008 bill stripped CF(L)Co of its lease.

In the original 2008 bill - Energy Corporation of Newfoundland and Labrador Water Rights Act - the Lower Churchill River is described as including “all waters that originate within the Churchill River catchment area and all rivers that naturally flow within the catchment area or from diversions into the catchment area.”

Clause three of the then stated that

any property in and rights to the use and flow of water, previously conferred by a grant, lease, licence or other instrument or under a statute of the province, or vested in, acquired by or accruing to a person by whatever means relating to the Lower Churchill River are extinguished.  [Emphasis added]

By combining the two clauses, the new bill effectively cancelled the 1961 Churchill Falls lease.  The 2008 law also blocked rights holders from any legal action and stripped them of  any entitlement to compensation.  

The bill became law on June 4, 2008.  There is no indication when cabinet issued the license to the energy corporation, now known as NALCOR Energy.

The changes introduced in Tuesday’s emergency session make it plain that the 2008 water rights law applies only to the Lower Churchill and that, for absolute certainty,  the 2008 bill “ excludes the area described in Appendix A to The Churchill Falls (Labrador) Corporation Limited (Lease) Act, 1961, and all waters while they are in that area.”

Emergency sessions are rare

For its part, the Williams administration is downplaying the session and the hasty changes.  In a news release, Dunderdale said that the act was never intended to cover Churchill Falls.

But the very fact the session was called to deal with one set of amendments to one bill suggests the issues involved are far from routine and that the legal implications of the water rights bill would be significant if left unamended.

Emergency or special sessions occur very rarely and usually only deal with extraordinary issues like war or labour disputes that threaten public health and safety.

Ordinarily – and if the implications of the bill were considered inconsequential or inadvertent -   CF(L)Co and NALCOR could simply have made routine amendments in the regular fall sitting a condition of an overall deal on water rights management on the Churchill River. 

Interestingly, the provincial government also tried to downplay the water rights bill in 2008, even to the point of making apparently misleading statements in the legislature.

In June 2008,  natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale told the House of Assembly that the bill was needed since government had decided against using the  Lower Churchill Development Corporation as the vehicle to develop the Gull Island and Muskrat Falls power projects. 

But the 2008 water rights bill didn’t repeal the 1978 Lower Churchill Development Act, nor did it remove the LCDC option for development of the Lower Churchill.  The 2008 bill merely extinguished previously existing rights, leases, grants and licenses. 

Deja vue

This marks the second time since 1975 that a Progressive Conservative administration in Newfoundland and Labrador has found itself in hot water over legislation related to Churchill Falls.

In 1980 Brian Peckford’s administration introduced the Upper Churchill Water Rights Reversion Act.  The bill expressly cancelled the 1961 lease.  A subsequent legal challenge by creditors led to a landmark decision by the Supreme Court of Canada that ruled the 1980 statute was illegal. 

One of the influential factors in that case was public comments by politicians that identified the real purpose of the bill as being to undo the 1969 Churchill Falls agreement.

If the 2008 water rights bill effectively expropriated the Churchill Falls complex, it would be the second such move by the Williams administration in 2008.  In December 2008, the Williams administration moved to seize assets of Abitibi, Enel and Fortis including hydro-electric generating facilities. 

Confusion reigns in hydro policy

Revelation of the 2008 water rights ploy is the fourth Lower Churchill-related blockbuster news in a week.

On Friday, natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale revealed that the provincial government had been trying unsuccessfully for five years to interest Hydro Quebec in an ownership stake in the Lower Churchill project. 

Dunderdale told Open Line Show host Randy Simms and his audience that the provincial government proposed to “set the Upper Churchill [issue] to one side.”

This move came despite commitments by Premier Danny Williams that there would be no Quebec involvement in the Lower Churchill without redress for the appalling 1969 deal that sees Hydro Quebec buy electricity at better than 1/30th the cost for which it is sold to consumers.    Williams has repeatedly railed against the 1969 deal as an example of a resource give-away by previous provincial governments.

The offer of an ownership stake to Hydro Quebec also flies in the face of Williams’ 2006 commitment to develop the Lower Churchill without any outside help:

"It's an opportunity for us to get back some of what we've lost on the Upper Churchill, and the fact that we're going to do this alone is significant," Williams said in an interview.

The Dunderdale revelation came after Williams accused Hydro Quebec of doing everything possible to block the Lower Churchill project. 

Williams also said last week that  his government would no longer plan to string hydro lines from the Lower Churchill through a UNESCO World Heritage site.

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Giving HQ an ownership stake in the Lower Churchill

Via labradore, yet more connected to Kathy Dunderdale’s surprise admission last Friday that the provincial government wants Hydro Quebec to take an ownership stake in the Lower Churchill project.

This time it’s some remarks by Gerry Reid on amendments to the Electrical Power Control Act in 2006.

Reid noted the curious change of position by the government in moving from “go it alone” to “take the lead” on the Lower Churchill.

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Signs of impending fun…

1.  An IP address from Hydro Quebec starts prowling around.

2.  Dipper astroturf starts showing up in the comments section of any post that mentions just about anything, but especially anything related to Dippers and elections.  They are all anonymous and all follow a generally similar series of lines about Dipper Ryan Cleary and Grit incumbent Siobhan Coady.

So far  - and this is like some provincial Connies – the comments have been about on the same level as 9/11 truthers. 

When the Grit and Connie astroturfers start in with their counter-strikes, this next federal election could look like a trip to the multiple personality war at the Waterford as Anonymous goes after Anonymous for something Anonymous said.

And people wonder why I think Alice in Wonderland is such an apt source of metaphors for local politics.

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So what happened to the Chinese?

The year is 2004. 

The provincial government signs a secret deal with a group of companies – including one owned by the Chinese government – to discuss developing the Lower Churchill.

After questions are raised by local media about the company, the project quietly disappears.

What happened to the Sino Energy deal anyways?

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Forward not backward!

We’ve had Rip-Off Ron, the mayoral candidate who likes to lift other people’s campaign slogans.

Now, we have a deputy mayor who makes the perfect match on more than their shared history of using public money to fund the private sector;  on that last one think the Wells-Coombs Memorial Money Pit, then recall Ellsworth thinks it is acceptable to sink taxpayers cash into money losers because local businesses can make huge bucks.

Now we can look forward with Kang …errr… Coombs.

And always twirling, twirling, twirling…

Originality in local politics is evidently at a premium.

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