Budget 2010: prep work

Some things to watch for in Budget 2010:

1.  Deficit 2009.  Check to see how big the accrual deficit is, but expect that to be pretty much zeroed out.  The pension plan should have recovered its paper losses and with revenues being higher than the deliberately lowballed forecast, some people might be fooled into believing things are healthier than they are.

Just remember that as he headed out the door Paul Oram described provincial government spending as unsustainable.  The finance minister said the same thing.  Odds are government will try and make things look smurferrific by pointing to the accrual numbers but don’t be fooled.

Check the cash deficit in a document titled the Estimates.  That will give you a picture of what the actual cash flows looked like in 2009. Budget 2009 forecast a cash shortfall of $1.3 billion.  The cash statements will give you a good sense of whether the the provincial government will have a significant financial problem in the medium- to long-term.

Your humble e-scribbler would expect a cash shortfall of something on the order of $800 million. 

That would make it the largest cash deficit in Newfoundland and Labrador since …well…ever and certainly since 2004.

In previous years, oil revenues erased just about every one of the projected cash deficits.  This year expect something closer to what they forecast a year ago on a cash basis.

That’s because…

2.  Oil revenues should be down.  The only question is by how much.

The finance department’s Decemberish estimate was for a drop of 30% which would bring in royalties of about $1.7 billion. The March 2009 prediction was for revenues to be half of what they were in 2008.

As it turned out, that was a pretty good estimate.  In the first half of the fiscal year royalties were down by almost 60% from where they were in 2008.  That was actually about 15% below the forecast in March 2009.  The year actually started off worse than the low-balled finance department estimate.

The December financial update claimed there’d be a jump in revenue from forecast but oil production figures – one of the revenue factors – stayed persistently below the volumes needed to help generate the cash.

Again, check the revenue figures in the Estimates. And don’t forget your humble e-scribbler had to get information from the feds because provincial finance basically refused to release any information. In itself that’s a reason to put a question mark over what’s coming.

Your old e-scribbler wouldn’t be surprised to see oil royalties of about $1.5 billion for 2009, give or take a couple of hundred million.  Just remember what finance minister Tom Marshall said during debate on the interim supply bill last week:

While production, natural production will come back when Hebron comes on, but it is never going to come back to what production was two years ago; unless, of course, we discover additional fields, such as in the other basins where they are continuing to explore…[Bold added]

Production is one factor in determining royalties.  Price and percentage are the other two.  Since we know the percentage and the price is unlikely to zoom back up to the stratosphere of mid-2008, we can reasonably expect the provincial government will have less money in the future than it has had in the past couple of years.

There are not new ideas.  Regular readers have seen them discussed before.

And that pretty much jives with something else…

3.  Other revenues were down in 2009, too:  Marshall put some numbers on the table in January and February during a series of speeches across the province.

• Personal income tax revenue for 2009 should come in somewhere around $800 million. That’s above forecast but remember that they lowballed the figures.
• Sales tax should be about $600 million.  That’s way off the forecast of $728 million.
• Mineral tax and royalties should be somewhere around $184 million.  Again that’s a wee bit above the forecast of $171.6 million

4.  Check the deficit forecast (cash) for 2010 and beyond it.  Revenues aren’t going to climb so the provincial government needs to lay out a plan on how to bring the books back into balance.  Deficit budgetting is what got us into a financial mess over the course of decades.  if the current administration doesn’t have a plan to balance the books sooner rather than later than we’d all better start wondering.

Former Bank of Canada governor David Dodge pointed out over the weekend that Canadians can expect health care costs to outstrip revenue growth by about 1.5% in the decade ahead. That’s just one aspect of the demographic challenge our province is facing but it is a very significant one.  The problem can’t be made to disappear with magical thinking or the cavalier dismissal that balanced budgets are just numbers on a page.

5.  We’ve been living in a fiscal house of cards and the house is collapsing. Take a look at the growth in interim supply spending since 2004, shown above in thousands of millions of dollars.   In six years, the interim supply spending has pretty much doubled;  it’s gone from 1.2 billion to 2.3 billion.

In four of the past six years, the leaps have been double-digits;  from 10.2% in 2007 to 17.5% in 2009.  This year it is seven percent above the year before.  The average increase in spending is 10.8%.  At that rate, the provincial budget in 2014 would be about $10.5 billion.

Just remember, though, that as Tom Marshall noted, oil production won’t be what it has been for the past two years.  Oil prices won’t be skyrocketing either and as such, provincial government revenues won’t be growing at the rate of 11% per year or better.

If provincial government spending continues to grow as it has since 2004, it won’t be very long before this province is in the same state it was during the late 1980s.

 

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PIFO

If the supporters of the administration believe that something has been done for entirely partisan reasons (let alone that such partisan decisions are justified), then it seems rather …pointless…ermmm…silly…to argue that a decision taken wholely, solely and totally by politicians was somehow not a political decision.

It would seem to be a penetrating insight into the friggin’ obvious.

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Dipperdoom

Dipper Dale’s Dead.

Again.

Well, at least his online presence Tickling Bight has gone the way of Brigadoon, back into the mists of the Internet moors.

Yep.

He’s hydroqueened for the second time in about a month.

No explanation.

Just poof and the blindly partisan  - and sometimes downright bizarre - rantings are gone.

Now maybe like Sue  - or the fictitious Scottish village Brigadoon -  the whole thing will pop back, just like the last time your humble e-scribbler noted it had up and run off without so much as a tip of the hat or a goodbye.

She’s gone, b’ys, she’s gone Update:  It’s been a week.  Looks like Dale the Dipper’s propaganda space is gone for good. [31 March 2010]

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Wanted: adults

Former Bank of Canada David Dodge laid it out in stark terms for anyone who wants to listen.

“It” is the challenge facing all Canadians of continuing to provide public services like health care in the face of shifts in the workforce among other things.

But the hard choices for any prime minister go beyond energy. Former Bank of Canada governor David Dodge spelled it out in bleak terms, saying Canadians need to have the courage to engage in an "adult conversation" about what governments can afford at a time of a shrinking workforce, ageing population and slowing economy.

"We kind of are wishing the problem away by assuming that we can curtail expenditures without curtailing the real services that governments are providing to you and me as citizens," he said after addressing 250 convention attendees.

Adult conversation has been missing from what public discussion there has been of major issues in this province for the past seven years.  Around these parts, the challenge of having a substantive discussion is greater given the prevalence of magical thinking throughout society.  Magical thinking in this case would be any suggestion that there are no problems at all or that they will be easily solved.

Let’s see if there is continued magical thinking in Monday’s budget.  Bet the farm on a “yes” and you won’t make much:  everyone who has been paying attention is expecting just that.

They likely won’t be disappointed.

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From the safety of the ivory tower

Some professors at the University of Regina don’t like a scholarship for the children of Canadian soldiers killed in Afghanistan.

They argue it “glorifies imperialism” and:

“It conflates heroism with the death of individuals who are in the military service and we think that the death of individuals is always a tragic matter, but we think that heroism is something different,”

Lots of people conflate lots of things but in this case one is tempted to suggest that the learned ones at Regina U have conflated their thoughts with anything approaching reason.

But in light of these thoughts offered from the prairies, one wonders what the view is at the administrative level at a university that is part of the scholarship program, a university built as a lasting memorial to men who gave their lives in military and naval service.

Noreen Golfman, Memorial University’s managerially-challenged grad studies dean, wrote a piece for the now defunct Independent back in  January 2007 in which she vented her frustration over the prevalence of images from the war in Afghanistan during the holiday season:

Every time you opened a newspaper or listened to the news, especially on the CBC, you were compelled to reach for the box of tissues. If it wasn’t a story about some poor sod’s legs being blown off then it was an extended interview with some dead soldier’s parents. Indulging in another bite of dark chocolate was meant to be more painful this year. Here, have a plate of guilt with your second helping, my dear, and pass the self-reproach.

Golfman also lamented the lack of protest in her typically insightful way:

What in the world is going on? Where are the protest songs of yesteryear? I guess, when General Rick “MUN graduate” Hillier invites you to come along and share the joy ride you have to join up faster than you can say “Bob Hope is dead.” Reading Mercer’s widely circulated piece on the joys of serving gravy to the grateful Canadian boys was almost as painful as watching Peter MacKay flirt with Condoleezza “Condee” Rice.

One wonders if then Professor Golfman, now Dean Golfman, still holds the same miserable opinion of the men and women who served in Afghanistan.  Some of them might be graduates of Memorial or, mercy sakes, might even be graduate students there.

Does she share the  views of academics at Regina? Did she offer her opinion of the Project Hero scholarship before memorial endorsed it?

Perhaps she might be moved to offer a comment if she has the time, that is, coping with the financial mess in the grad studies school.

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Related:  Rick Mercer’s answer to Golfman.

Jacks and the Auditor General

What is it about Dipper leaders named Jack and their problems with having the Auditor General check over their expense claims?

Here’s Jack Layton using a worn out excuse that hasn’t been tried since well before the spending scandals in legislatures in St. John’s, Halifax and among Jack’s political brethren in Westminister:

"Well, those are already audited, so I don’t know why wasting money on a second audit of something that has already been audited would make sense," he said.

Yep and there were audits in the House of Assembly too during the peak of the spending scandal.  Layton should ask his defence critic Jack Harris who, as it turns out, is the former leader of the New Democrats in Newfoundland and Labrador. Here’s what he had to say in voting for a government bill that proved to be a key foundation stone for the spending scandal:

Similarly, we have a new provision which requires an annual audit of the accounts of the House of Assembly which I think is appropriate; that there be accountability through an annual audit.

That proved to be so incredibly effective, as a subsequent review by an Auditor General revealed. Heck, Jack Harris’ old bench mate wound up going to jail for his part in the whole business.

The days of the kind of unaccountable political privilege the two Jacks  and the rest of the Ottawa Dippers are clinging to is long over.

A little sunshine in dark corners goes a long way to killing off any untoward activity that is taking place, the glare of public scrutiny also helps to keep it from taking root.

Imagine what might have been prevented if political donations were scrutinised more closely.

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Shawn the Bullet Dodger

labradore makes a couple of very interesting points about Danny Williams and the failed New Brunswick Power deal, what with a major story that remains unreported in the mainstream a full six months after it broke.

Frankly it’s hard to know what’s more interesting here:  Shawn’s failure, Danny’s intervention or the reason why the mainstream media continues to ignore a gigantic energy story in Newfoundland and Labrador that is directly related to the first two.

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Related: “Five years of secret talks…”

Graham abandons NB power deal

The deal to sell New Brunswick Power to Hydro Quebec is dead.

Both sides are pointing to risks and problems that turned up apparently by surprise.

New Brunswick Premier Shawn Graham said:

"However, over the past several weeks as we worked to take that agreement and turn it into a full legal document, Hydro-Québec has asked for changes to the agreement that would have unacceptably taken away some of the value and increased some of the risks for New Brunswickers."

And CBC reported:

Quebec Premier Jean Charest told reporters on Wednesday his province pulled out after its power utility found unanticipated risks and costs related to matters like dam security and water levels.

After due diligence was done, he said Hydro-Québec decided that "we were beyond what was acceptable."

It will be interesting to see what happens if the Tories win the next provincial election and have to cope with the NB Power debt pig.  So far their only bright ideas have been to oppose someone else’s bright idea.

Stat Porn – all outlinks are local

On any given day, people who read Bond Papers also like to read:

1. John Gushue’s  dot dot dot.
2. Geoff Meeker’s Meeker on media
3. Ryan Snodden’s weather blog
4. Russell Wangersky
5. Bob Wakeham

All the number of visits to the other regular links around these parts  - over there on the left - fall off dramatically after those.

Well at least that’s what Statcounter tells us.

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U of O is ‘bush league’

That’s according to Ann Coulter and  - as painful as this is to acknowledge – she might actually be right.

Well, given that a couple of hundreds morons can create enough of a ruckus to deny free speech on a university campus.

Then again this is Canada where it isn’t unusual to see that kind of thuggery at universities, let alone discover some schmuck like Francois Houle in a position of responsibility.

Anyone been to Sir George Nutbar  - d.b.a. Concordia University - lately for a stimulating, civilised intellectual exchange on the Middle East?

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Kremlinology 19: Ass-kissing has its rewards

Wade Verge is apparently back in Hisself’s good graces.

One clue was Wade’s prominent place moving the Address in Reply to the Speech from the Throne during which Wade dutifully kissed The Boss’ hindmost regions with an enthusiasm not seen in the House of Assembly since the glory days of a former ambassador to Hy’s.

But the real clue to Wade’s new status is his meteoric shift of seats.  The fellow has gone from being right next to the door to sitting right up by the Speaker.  More importantly, Wade is now just inches away from Hisself, hisself.

It isn’t the treasury bench, but it’s a place of some prominence.

As proximity to The Old Man goes, Wade is way closer than the much beloved Diane Whelan. Wade is even closer than O’Brien The Embalmer. By the by, Kevin may not know where St. Anthony is, but he damn well knows where his meal ticket comes from.

Wade is in an august spot. The last ass to warm the particular bit of sealskin where Wade is now ensconced was none other than Senator Beth Marshall, as she now is.

Now for those who missed it, Beth may have had a bit of a disagreement with Hisself, but she remained a completely loyal foot-soldier right up to the time she was promoted to glory by their mutual friend, Steve.  When it came time to implement the Green report, Beth got the job.  If she was on the outs with The Old Man she’d never have gotten that job.

But anyway, whatever Wade did, he did it right.

You can tell by just how pretty he is sitting now compared to where he was perched just three months ago.

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Coulter finds Canuck suckers

Ann Coulter at Western in a handful of words:

1.  Francois Houle is a schmuck.  If you can’t understand why, then read this guy.

2.  Coulter is playing this exactly as she would, if anyone knew anything about Coulter’s schtick.

Which is why Houle is a schmuck, in case you didn’t figure it out yet.

3.  Meanwhile, for those of you old enough to remember the Lampoon and who can appreciate NSFW writing in the old style, try this and this.

You’ll laugh harder than Coulter is at Houle and all the other Canuck schmucks who fell for same lame game…

yet again.

Sheesh.

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I am Legend

This is a throne speech from someone who doesn’t plan on doing very much more in politics.

There is no greater legacy My Government is building for our province’s children than the renewed sense of pride and confidence that they, as Newfoundlanders and Labradorians, are feeling as we become masters of our own destiny. In classrooms and homes across our province, a new attitude is taking hold, full of hope in the dream of a wonderful future for young people right here at home. This year’s plan of action builds with confidence on the extraordinary progress Newfoundland and Labrador has achieved since 2003.

That’s pretty much the tone of the whole thing: “Everything I set out to do is now done.  Everything and everyone is ready for a better tomorrow.”

The only thing missing was the talk of new hands taking the helm.

We already have that, by the way, in the 2005 throne speech in which Danny Williams plagiarized John Kennedy’s inaugural address to come up with his own version:

"The time has come for new heroes to step forward: men, women, and young people who can build their community, grow our economy, foster cooperation, and inspire the confidence we need to pursue our dreams together."

In the context of the speech though, Williams didn’t have the same idea Kennedy’s speechwriter used.  Kennedy was running on the theme that he embodied the new generation of leaders.  In Williams’ case, he was – apparently – talking about others coming forward to replace him.  That sounds odd, but then again, this is an administration that started out with the sort of foolish ideas – grandiose, overhyped megaprojects – that usually come from parties that are entirely clapped out.

In any event,  the new session of the latest Williams’ legislature may prove to be his last and one of the lightest in the history of the province. Then again, this guy has been The –est Premier.

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Personality Cult

Take a gander at a Canadian Press story about the personality cult surrounding the Premier and you’ll notice some rather curious things.

Of course there are the cultists themselves who display the characteristic worship of the Premier, the propagation of the usual myths and the patronising and paternalistic way these people look at politics.  To wit:

“Blair”:…The one thing I can say for certain is that he has accomplised  [sic]the most possible for this province, and I see no leader that could possibly shake my belief in him and his ability to run our great Province.

…

“C”:…I can finally say that there is a premier that I am proud of.  I can honestly say that when I am represented by MY premier I'm not cringing in anticipation of his comments like so many in the past.

…

“Seriously”:…Danny Williams is successful because he doesn't need the office. He can make decisions that have better long term outcomes because he doesn't need the office.

…

By far the best example of the personality cultist view came from someone who signed with a pseudonym “Joe Blow”:

But Danny already has everything he wants when it comes to money. Now what he wants is a better future for his people, and he is succeeding in this.

[Lorraine] Michael wonders how long the Cult of Danny can endure?

Here is your answer.

Death will be the only thing that stops this man from ensuring that our province thrives.

“Now what he wants is a better future for his people, and he is succeeding in this.”  There can be no clearer statement of that view which reduces individuals in Newfoundland and Labrador to the status of children fit for nothing better than to be looked after.

Such is the essence of personality cults.

It’s also worth noting this comment:

"If anybody thinks democracy is healthy in this province just look at the voter turnout the other day," said Michael Temelini, a political scientist at Memorial University.

…

"As popular as (Williams) may be, we should be paying as much attention to the House of Assembly and its important role in upholding our democratic system. People should stop paying so much attention to the executive branch. But that's what happens when you get one party in power.

"What's going on in Newfoundland is people are just going to wait until Danny Williams retires. Now that's a problem."

There is nothing evident today that was not also evident five or six years ago but that’s really another issue.  The thing to note is that Temelini – once a very public Dan-o-phile – is now a solid critic of where the province is under Williams’ leadership.

Temelini isn’t alone in this.  There are a number of public commentators who have gone from praising the Premier to be concerned for the state of public life in the province.  Then there are the comments coming from all corners of the province that express some frustration with things in Newfoundland and Labrador after seven years of Danny.  Increasingly the grumbling is coming from within the Tory party, especially among the old townie establishment part of the Blue Machine.  it’s all still very much quiet grumbling of the sort where people are a bit self-conscious that word might spread back to Hisself and Hisself’s hangers-on. But five years ago, no one would have dreamed of even thinking of being disgruntled let alone expressing it.

Moods are shifting.

Still, some people quoted in the article seem to recognise  - albeit vaguely – that there is an issue even if they quite obviously don’t know what to do about it.

"Why do people put so much hope in one person?" wonders Lorraine Michael, the sole New Democrat in a Gang of Five opposition that includes four Liberals.

"We do have a personality cult mentality here in Newfoundland and Labrador and a lot of it is based on his personality."

That last bit is by no means clear.  The worship of an individual in the fashion seen in this province over the past few years speaks to a much deeper cultural issue  - a cultural disorder – rather than something as simple as “he is a sweet guy” or “he is a bully” or “he is very charismatic.” take your pick:  those are all descriptions of a personality but they don’t explain the bootlicking toadying of so many out there.

Nor does it explain the unwillingness of Michael and the four Liberal opposition members to resist being steamrolled by Mr. Popularity.  Just because someone is popular, even if he or she is actually that popular, doe snot make them correct in decisions. Rolling over on something like the expropriation bill, for example, simply shouldn’t happen in a healthy democracy.

Still, recognising there is a problem is the first step in finding a solution.

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Backlog

As labradore notes, while a throne is speech is supposed to be about laying out the new legislation for the upcoming session, the one delivered today was surprisingly thin in that respect.

Not to worry. 

There is plenty of old legislation that isn’t in force and unkept promises dating back to 2003 to keep any half decent administration busier than a one-armed paper hanger.

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PUB quietly imposes water management deal

The public utilities board imposed a water management agreement on NALCOR and Churchill Falls (Labrador) Corporation on March 9, 2010. The reasons for the decision were filed separately ,

The PUB didn’t issue a news release when it issued the order, nor did it issue any sort of media advisory or news release on the half day of hearings it held into the application.

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Maquis?

More like maquette.

or to be even more accurate a mockette. 

Not even enough of a mockery to be a fully qualified one to handle the name on its own.

More like mockery-light.

Mockery of a political party, mockery of democracy and mockery of a genuine separatist party. 

Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc:  political irrelevant. 

But damn fine comedians.

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The Money Program

Within the past 12 months, federal and provincial government sources have poured $2.0 million into a building expansion at Dynamic Air Shelters and to unspecified research projects the company is running.

The most recent injection – this time from the provincial government – came last week.

That brings the total amount of public cash in this private company to slightly less than $ 3.5 million in the four years since the company relocated from Calgary to Grand Bank. That doesn’t count what the company received as a result of EDGE status.

 

Date	Description	Amount (Cdn$)	Type
19 Mar 10	12,000 square foot building expansion plus new equipment	725,000	INTRD - unspecified
17 Jun 09	Research	50,000	NRCC - contribution
17 Jun 09	Research	30,000	NRCC - contribution
12 Jun 09	Research	30,000	NRCC - contribution
19 May 09	Research	465,000	NRCC - contribution
16 Apr 09	Building expansion plus new equipment	500,000	ACOA – interest free loan, Business Development Program
		200,000	Grand Bank Development Corporation loan
06 Nov 08	6,000 square foot expansion plus 30 + jobs	500,000	Business Oil and Gas Manufacturing Services Export Fund
27 Jun 08	Salary subsidy – hire and train 18 employees	180,000	INTRD - unspecified
01 May 07	Loan – unspecified purpose	250,000	INTRD – SME Fund
20 Dec 06	Prod. “efficiencies” and employee trg	20,000	INTRD
26 Jun 06	Construct oil industry shelters	499,926	ACOA – “provisionally repayable contr”
12 Jun 06	Hire marketing manager	50,000	ACOA - contribution
SUB-TOTAL	Provincial Federal	1,675,000 1,824,926
TOTAL		$ 3,499,926

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Le declin de l’empire

Eyes firmly fixed on the past, as if obsessed,  instead of looking toward the future.

Tell-tale sign on top of all the other tell-tale signs - Churchill hydro etc - of unhealthy obsession with the past.

In eight years time, they may find that many of the changes they hoped for like massive new industries will still be little more than the fodder for someone else’s rhetoric.

Finishing other people’s ideas, if you can finish them at all, is not like having ideas – and real accomplishments  - of your own.

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Jesse James and the stripper

Arguably the stupidest ar**hole in the world.

There simply isn’t any other word for him.

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Old Harry: Gulf prospect bigger than Hibernia

Old Harry is an oil and natural gas deposit in the Gulf of St. Lawrence that could be twice the size of Hibernia. As it is the current estimated size is about the same as the current proven, probable and possible oil at Hibernia.
The field is back in the news because one of the companies involved – Corridor Resources – is planning to do some exploration work on the portion of the field that is within the Newfoundland Offshore Area. Corridor has licenses for the field from Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador.
There are two major problems.  Firstly, the border in the Gulf has not been defined clearly enough in that area.  Secondly, and more importantly, nothing is likely to happen on the Quebec side of the border unless and until Quebec City and Ottawa resolve a royalty/jurisdiction dispute.
The Quebec government is looking for a deal:

"This represents a good opportunity and lot of money for Quebec, especially at a time where we are trying to limit our dependence on oil imports," said Natural Resources Minister Nathalie Normandeau. "We want to settle this issue for good. Quebec has been very patient and we're taking a firmer line today. We've been waiting for 12 years and now we want to reach a deal."

And there’s a unanimous resolution in the Assemblee Nationale to back it up.
All things considered, oil and gas development in Newfoundland and Labrador is likely to shift to the western portion of the province sooner rather than later. 

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h/t to labradore.

Seals!

Near Port aux Choix on the Great Northern Peninsula.

The pictures turned up in ye olde in-box on Thursday evening.

Okay, so it’s more like very near Port aux Choix.

Ice conditions at sea are obviously so bad, the animals are whelping on whatever patch of ice they can find, even if it is well up the beach (and across a road). From pictures circulating in the mainstream media, there is no ice at sea in some areas where it would normally be choked off with the white stuff.

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Good one there, Wente

Margaret Wente argues that bloggers are mostly male and demonstrates in the process that her argument [as to why that is so] is wrong.

[Sarah and I believe the urge to blog is closely related to the sex-linked compulsion known as male answer syndrome. MAS is the reason why guys shoot up their hands first in math class. MAS also explains why men are so quick to have opinions on subjects they know little or nothing about.]

Clearly, basing your column on an inherently fragile, sexist stereotype demonstrates that blogs aren’t the only place for instant, ill-founded opinions.  Moreover,  the time it takes to produce a column versus a blog post doesn’t -  in and of itself  - improve the quality of the thought behind the column.

Not many women are interested enough in spitting out an opinion on current events every 20 minutes.

Maybe not, Peg, but apparently at least one is interested in taking longer to get to the same place.

But don’t worry, plenty of bloggers wind up generating exactly this kind of writing:  an argument that defeats itself.

At least Peg doesn’t have to write her own sock puppet comments.

-srbp-

[] denotes additions to clarify the point for people who don’t go off and read Wente’s column.

Wente Sorted Updated:  Apparently the considerable number of women who write blogs decided Peg was full of shit, too and decided to tell her in so many far more elegant words [original links from the Globe version are live]:

"When influential women are ignorant to the numerous women's voices on the Internet, when the voices of many women are dismissed as endearing, cute and girly, and when the voices of those women who are most oppressed are ignored altogether, that gender gap is perpetuated. Thank you, Margaret, for proving your own point about how hard it is to change the conversation."

Changing the conversation is very hard to do.

So the Globe has decided to have an online chat between Peg and women bloggers.  Get the popcorn.  This should be funny.

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.

Never let it be said: House of Assembly version

Never let it be said that your humble e-scribbler didn’t help out the governing party as it struggles to figure things out a mere seven years into its time in office.

Tuesday’s post on on the opening of the House of Assembly noted that there was a major bit of business missing from the news release issued at 11:00 AM, namely proroguing, or officially closing, the old session.

Poof.

At 4:20 PM on Wednesday – odd time for something supposedly routine, dontchathink? -  yet a second media advisory emerges giving “details” of the proceedings on March 22. Turns out the House will meet at 10:00 to prorogue the old session.  Then His Honour will show up at 2:00 PM to deliver the speech from the throne.

24 hours and 20 minutes after the BP post points out the missing bits, basic information that ought to have been known and released in the first place miraculously appears.

Shades of the ABC website.

Ya gotta wonder sometimes. 

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Births and Deaths

With a tip of the bowler to David Campbell, here’s a table showing the ratio of live births to deaths, by province, for the selected years, courtesy of of the good folks at the Dominion statistics bureau, currently d.b.a. Statistics Canada.

Province	1999-2000	2007-2008
NL	1.20	0.94
PE	1.29	1.18
NS	1.22	1.00
NB	1.26	1.11
QC	1.40	1.53
ON	1.62	1.54
MB	1.48	1.48
SK	1.40	1.36
AB	2.22	2.32
BC	1.50	1.38

Campbell explains the figures this way:  for every death that occurred in a province in the given year, there was the number of births shown in the table. So in Alberta, for example, for every death, there were more than two births.

Most provinces have been stable.

In Atlantic Canada the figures have been going down and in Newfoundland and Labrador the decline was the worst of all. We don’t have enough babies to replace our deaths on a one for one basis.

The reason is simple:  young people of child-bearing age leave for somewhere else. This has not changed at all, despite the claims that the number of live births the past couple of years has gone up. People are still croaking at at least the same rough rate. And once the economy everywhere else settles down and starts to grow the normal patterns will resume.  The folks who have come home to seek shelter during the storm will venture out once more to foreign lands, to return  - if at all – once they have retired.

There are a couple of observations on this.  First, it is a reminder that the demographic issue is still with us and needs to be addressed.

Second, as far as the number of workers goes, this is not really much of an issue. if there was economic activity here, people would be staying.  And if they didn’t stay others would come here to replace them.

But that isn’t happening.

This is where you notice the general lack of growth locally and recall the number of projects that were supposed to happen but that died.

And then you realise the number of times cabinet ministers talked about slowing down development or – in the case of Hebron – letting work go because we could never do it all here anyway. 

Sure we could;  as in Alberta, we’d open the doors to people willing to come and do the work.  But that didn’t happen.

Just think about that for a second.

We actually had people talking about foregoing development or slowing the pace of development in order to avoid something. That “something” wasn’t overheating the economy or crime, housing crises or anything of the sort.

Nope.

There must have been some other reason why people thought letting opportunity slip by would be a good idea.

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Court docket now online

Word-for-word, the release issued by Provincial Court:

Effective March 3, 2010, the Provincial Court of Newfoundland and Labrador began providing improved public access and greater transparency by posting its daily Adult Criminal Docket online. The dockets are found online at http://www.court.nl.ca/provincial/adult/dockets.htm

The public and media now have the capability to go online and access, at their convenience, the daily Adult Criminal Docket for any Provincial Court location in the Province.

By providing this service the Court eliminates the need for the public, and particularly the media, on a daily basis to call or visit a court centre in order to confirm that a particular matter is scheduled for the following day. This access not only benefits the public and media, but improves the efficiency of the court by reducing phone calls and visits to the Court Registries.

The Small Claims Docket will also be available online in a few short weeks. As regards Youth and Family cases, there is specific legislation that prohibits the information contained in these dockets from being published.

Chief Judge Mark Pike said, “I am pleased that our Court Services Director has taken this innovative step to improve the efficiency of the Court’s daily operation and to make it more convenient for the thousands of people who have contact with us every year”.

Prominent St. John’s criminal lawyer, Randolph J. Piercey Q.C. stated “For many years lawyers, witnesses and those accused of crimes were required to crowd around a printed listing of the schedule posted outside the court door every morning. This was cumbersome and confusing. By having the docket posted and accessible online, all parties can confirm their schedules in advance.”

Pamela Goulding QC, Director of Public Prosecutions said “All too frequently, people went to the wrong courtroom or were mistaken about when their case was scheduled to proceed. Those who work in the courts such as police officers, lawyers and media personnel upon whom the public relies for information about what’s happening in our courts every day, were especially affected. Now, anyone with internet access can check the docket at their convenience. This will make it a lot easier for everyone. It just makes sense”.

The Provincial Court of Newfoundland and Labrador is the first Provincial Court in Canada to offer online daily Adult Criminal Dockets. The open court principle can be significantly enhanced through the appropriate use of existing information technologies.

“Innovative step”?

Just goes to show how far things have to come where something as patently obvious as posting a docket online is innovative.  Still it’s a good first step.

Of course, this isn’t the first court in the province to do this.  Trials Division of the Supreme Court has had its docket online for the better part of a year or more.

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Williams to continue unsustainable spending

In his first public statement since coming back to the province after heart surgery, Premier Danny Williams confirmed the provincial government will continue spending public money at a level his finance minister has described as unsustainable.

According to Williams, a balanced budget is no longer a target for his administration.

Williams said it was important to keep “momentum” going in the province. 

Take-away:

1. We are in a pre-election - if not a pre-leadership -  period in which any sound fiscal management goes out the window.
2. Williams correctly identifies provincial government spending as the source of economic activity on the northeast Avalon.  As BP readers know, oil hasn’t been driving things in the metro area, contrary to public belief.

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Big show; big deal

Okay so it’s not like anyone doubted the outcome but take a look at the turnout.

Out of 10,189 eligible voters, only 33% of them showed up to vote.

The newly elected member of the House of Assembly got the approval of a mere 27% of the electorate in the district.

Forget the tiny opposition party votes.  They were never expected to do anything anyway. 

But look at the Tory numbers and think about it:

A party that is supposedly worshipped by the entire province – except for a couple of skeets and ne’er do wells – could only motivate 27% of voters in a riding to cast their ballot.

That’s it.

2,737 out of 10,189.

That’s about half (55%) of the vote Beth Marshall pulled in 2007.  And even that was with a smaller number of eligible voters and in one of the historically worst turn-outs (60%) for a post-Confederation general election.

This one was even worse than that and in a situation where there was virtually no opposition campaign and the Tories could pile on the cash and the bodies as they always do for these shows.

Of course, none of that will be discussed during the inevitable – and entirely routine – post-game show on Wednesday.

But while the rest of the world just drones on, take a minute and just think about everything that’s happened since last September.  Then add this rather dismal performance.

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House to open two weeks late

Surprisingly this didn’t get announced yesterday – on a government holiday – along with the news Hisself had returned to work.

The House of Assembly will open with a Throne speech next Monday, March 22.  That’s two weeks late.

If past speeches are any guide, this one will be a truly mind-numbingly hideous piece of verbal diarrhoea.

No mention of what happened to the old session which was adjourned before Christmas but not ended.  Normally the House would meet and conclude the old session.  Maybe the word normally used for that – prorogue – is not in fashion among Conservatives any more.

Anyway, the finance minister will deliver a new budget a week after that, Monday March 29.

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Loonie on the way up

The Canadian dollar is at a level it hasn’t hit since just before the giant meltdown of the economy in the middle of 2008.

And this is supposedly a good thing.

How exactly is unclear since the United States economy is still in the crapper and the Canadian economy is still full of government cash.

Productivity is up, for sure, and that’s good.  But…

While the recent pickup in productivity is welcome, “the question of sustainability still remains front as centre as firms continue to increase hours worked along with overall employment,” said Bank of Nova Scotia economists.

That’s really the warning that has to go with any Pollyanna projections:  we can’t be absolutely sure this is real.

Sales of manufactured products was down 11% in this province in January from December.  But the January 2010 numbers were about the same as the numbers in January 2009.  And that’s the opposite of what was happening nationally.

Oil production is still running about 17% below last year.  January production was about 8.7 million barrels compared to 10.5 million barrels in January 2009. That’s consistent with what you’ve been seeing reported in this corner since last fall.

 

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Quiet: Genius at Work

Those people who worked diligently to smash FPI into tiny bits can see how much their handiwork is benefitting people who don’t live in Newfoundland and Labrador:

Around the world, he could see two models of integrated seafood companies that were able to grow: They focused on being very efficient at primary production, or they specialized in value-added processing, sales and marketing.

High Liner took the second tack and Mr. Demone eventually got out of the fishing fleet business, which had been his company's, and his family's, historical foundation.

The company got another boost recently by picking up assets in the selloff of FPI Ltd., a troubled seafood company based in St. John's. That brought a strong food service business in the United States, as well as production capacity in Newfoundland and Labrador. Recent results reflect the first synergies from that purchase, Mr. Demone says.

Meanwhile in Newfoundland and Labrador, the geniuses who brought you the original fiasco are still at work offering the same old solutions to the same old problems.

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Related:

• “The FPI-competitor myth…”

Satisfaction with Williams gov drops 13 points

What’s the difference between approval and satisfaction?

Well, quite a lot according to Newfoundlanders and Labradorians surveyed during February by two polling firms.

A Corporate Research Associates poll conducted between February 9 and February 25 showed public satisfaction with the Danny Williams administration at a record 93% percent.

But a new survey by Angus Reid conducted during the same time period (February 16 to 23) showed that only 80% of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians approved of Danny Williams’ performance as Premier.

The Angus Reid poll has a lower margin of error at 3.9% 19 times out of 20 compared with CRA’s 4.9%. in addition to a news release, Angus Reid also released a description of the polling methodology and details on the poll itself.  CRA does not release that information.

What this really shows, though, is the gigantic discrepancy between CRA and other pollsters in their results.  The problem with CRA polls is highlighted by the difference in results between AR and CRA for Nova Scotia.  The Angus Reid poll also highlights a huge discrepancy between the AR poll and CRA’s results on a similar question in Nova Scotia. 

According to CRA:

Satisfaction with the NDP government declined even more significantly, with one-half of residents satisfied with the overall performance of the government (49%, down from 63% three months ago).

But according Angus Reid, the Nova Scotia government led by New Democrat Darrell Dexter has only 23% approval down from 49% in November 2009.

Bond papers has contended for some time that CRA polls are wildly inaccurate measures of public opinion.

 

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Firds of a bleather: uncommunication edition

What government departments or agencies in Newfoundland and Labrador have a policy like the one at Environment Canada forbidding interviews unless they’ve been cleared by the strategic uncommunications folks first?

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Danny is still in Florida

Nowhere in the official news release is there any mention that Danny Williams is back in Newfoundland and Labrador.

CBC didn’t report that he was back in the province either, merely that he was back at work.

Ditto the Telegram and Voice Of the Cabinet Minister.

And if you listen all the way to the end of an interview with health minister Jerome Kennedy from the Morning Show on Monday you can get pretty much the same idea. Kennedy acknowledges that Williams has been recovering and “will be back to work shortly.”  He quickly corrects himself to say Williams has already returned to work.

In fact, given that Monday was a provincial government holiday, a news release saying that Williams is back at work looks highly suspicious.  The timing of the release suggests it was triggered by Kennedy’s comments on the Morning Show.

But that doesn’t mean he is actually in the province. 

Williams has been working – apparently – throughout most of his recuperation period. It’s highly unlikely that a man described by his own deputy as a workaholic could actually do anything but try and run the province from his sick bed in Florida.

There’s no word on when Williams will actually return to the province.

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Great Minds Update:  As WJM notes, Hisself has been doing official work things before the news release announcing he is on the job once more.  That pretty much clinches the conclusion that the “news” today was more a reaction to Jerome!’s comment than any actual change in Hisself’s health status.

What-no-facebook-status? Update:  Turns out Hisself is actually back and the release was cover for his campaign foray into Topsail district.  Still, he could just have easily issued the release in February when he went to Vancouver – what was that, a lark? - and said he’d be working from the Southern premier’s office in Sarasota until the snow final disappeared.

Elements of Style: Notebook…and pen

Keep your Blackberry.

Thanks for the Palm, but no thanks.

Ditto the iPhone, iPod and even the iPad when it arrives.  They have their uses, sure enough.

For some purposes, only a notebook will do.

Not a computer, mind you.

A notebook.

A book in which one writes notes.

There is the Moleskine - left, on the bottom - or a version by Piccadilly, left, on the top that is far less expensive and every bit as good.

Black cover, elastic to keep it closed, a few hundred pages of blank paper, either ruled or plain, to suit the purpose. 

Something durable enough to carry around the corner or around the world.

And to write in the notebook, there is nothing that compares to a fountain pen.

A Mont Blanc, if you are so inclined, in this case a Meisterstuck 146.  

Writing need not be without its pleasures.

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Oveur and Out

Actor Peter Graves, whose career ranged from Stalag 17 to Airplane!, died of an apparent heart attack on the week.  Graves was age 83.

Graves was perhaps best known as the spymaster in the 1960s television series Mission: Impossible. 

Known for his serious roles, Graves lampooned them all successfully in Airplane!, a send-up of airplane disaster movies.  Graves played Victor Oveur, the pilot of a doomed airliner.

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Inherent weakness: a public sector-driven recovery

Newfoundland and Labrador showed weak job growth in February with an increase of a mere two tenths of one percent compared to January 2010 and 1.5% compared to February 2009.

Nationally, the job growth in February was driven almost entirely by the public sector.

That matches rather nicely with the experience in Newfoundland and Labrador where private sector job creation has been trailing off for a couple of years. As usual you can find great details on this at labradore: One, Two, Three, Four, Five, Six.

Here’s a chart – h/t  labradore – that should help you get a clear picture of what has been going on.

Three things to take away from this:

1.  What you just saw is absolutely, categorically NOT what you are hearing from the mainstream media, political circles and people in the local business community.  But it is real. The happy-crappy-talk coming from places like the Board of Trade demonstrates the extent to which the Board has its head up its collective backside or can’t understand simple numbers.

2.  The corollary to the private sector jobs-slide is that the jobs growth that has taken place – akin to the boom on the northeast Avalon – has been fuelled almost entirely by the public sector.  Since public sector spending is – as regular SRBP readers have known for years – unsustainable the whole thing is built on very shaky foundations.

It can’t last.

Therefore…

3.  Stand by for some serious adjustments.  The reckoning may not come in the next few months but it will have to come.

Of course, you will hear nothing but happy-crappy-talk from politicians who are looking to get re-elected in two years.  The pre-election campaign has already started.  What’s more, in a worst case scenario, some of those politicians may be looking to become Premier in a Tory leadership fight before then. Either way, there’s little hope that any political party in the province will be able to come to grips with the real economic issues and start taking action to set the right course for the future.

To steal the words of the Lucides:

Those who deny there is any danger are blinded by the climate of prosperity that has prevailed in … recent years. … That’s the peculiarity of the current situation: the danger does not appear imminent but rather as a long slow decline. At first glance, there doesn’t seem to be any risk. But once it begins, the downward slide will be inexorable.

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Saint-Saens – Symphony No. 3

Sunday morning listening pleasure:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2001 Moonbus in April from Moebius

You know you’ve been waiting for this.

Coming next month.

From Moebius.

For those of us who have the original Aurora release, this is still something pretty special.

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The Zen of media intimidation

If a story goes unreported, did it actually happen?

In Mexico, as in post-communist Russia, pesky reporters sometimes turn up dead pour encourager les autres.

In other parts of the world, you don’t have to shoot people to stop things from being reported.

There are other ways.

And some of the the reporters will even deny that the lesser forms of intimidation even happened.

But that doesn’t mean there isn’t intimidation nor does it mean stories  - sometimes really big and important stories - don’t get reported.

But if they don’t get reported, did they actually happen?

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Telly-torial goes home

A classic Telegram editorial consists of a summary of an issue concluding with a blinding insight into the completely frigging obvious.

This pattern reflects - as much as anything else -  the historic inability of the editorial board to form a collective opinion on any issue unless there is already such a staggeringly obvious answer staring everyone on the planet in the face that to deny it would be to look like a total idiot.

It also reflects another local media truism, namely that if “we didn’t break, they don’t have to add to it.”  In this instance, as with any other issue of considerable substance tied to an equally considerable controversy – like say anything to do with a certain someone’s unmentionable but potentially medically related travel – there is virtually zero chance the paper would explore any side angles or issues let alone weigh in along the same line.  No sleeping dog dare be disturbed. 

If nothing else that would open the chance that a political storm hovering over another media outlet might also come hover over the Village Mall, and that would apparently be a bad thing no matter what issue or principle might be savaged in the process. 

That sort of attitude is what makes a politician’s blacklist so effective.

Well that and the fact that if the Telly was ever blackballed – don’t hold your breath for that trigger event to occur in the first place -  they’d cave so fast you’d only know there had been any problem in the first place by the hole in time and space left by the Telly retreat. Speed of light?  They’d be faster.

Notice, to illustrate the point, the Telly history between 1997 and 2000.  Once someone started getting fed, they stopped asking tough questions about things like the Premier’s travel.  But once their source left office and his spoon stopped coming over regularly from the 8th, the intrepid Telly newsroom rediscovered the wonders of access to information.

It was left to mainland media to tell us about The Source’s free-wheeling travel budget.

Plus ca change.

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Study-in-contrasts Update:  Meanwhile, the editorial board at the province’s other daily newspaper never seem to have trouble speaking what they see as truth to power.  That’s even more amazing when you consider the editorial board lives in the city that has been the home seat to more premier’s than any other:  Joe, Frank, Clyde, Brian One, and now Danny all represented seats in Corner Brook.

Here’s their take on the same issue that Telly publisher Charlie Stacy  - on behalf of them all - wussed out on.

RBC Economics: Imaginary project to drive NL economy in 2010

Sometimes you wonder if these guys actually have a clue:

The recent Public and Private Investment Intentions survey revealed that growth in non-residential capital investment in the province will be the fastest in Canada, surging by an impressive 31.2%. This increase will be fuelled by stronger investment in mining, oil and gas extraction,
utilities (related to the Lower Churchill Hydro development project) and the provincial government’s aggressive infrastructure stimulus plan.

Lower Churchill Hydro development project?

Since no one will be spending money on a project that doesn’t exist it’s going to be pretty hard for that gigantic imaginary project to drive economic development in the province.

It’s like the Matshishkapeu Accord, appropriately named around these parts after the spirit of the anus, the flatulence god.  Because that’s pretty much what the whole LC project is right now:  so much hot air that hits your nostrils with a pretty ripe odour.

Then there’s this piece of sure shite from the boys at the bank:

Employment in the province fell by 5,200, causing the unemployment rate to rise during most of the year; however, outside of energy and mining, the rest of the domestic economy fared surprisingly well.

Sure.

Surprisingly well indeed, if you don’t mention that the fishery is down 22% in landed value.

And let’s not forget that forestry, as in pulp and paper making, is in near complete friggin’ meltdown.  Mills closed.  The one remaining mill has one machine going instead of two and is slicing off workers and costs in a desperate effort to stay afloat.

The province’s finance minister admits they’ve shagged up government spending so badly that current spending patterns are “unsustainable.”  But the fin min say recently that if it wasn’t for oil – thanks BP, CKW, BT, and   RG – he and DW would be shagged up royally?  good thing there were all those give-aways before 2003 of they’d be up the creek.

But sure sure thing, there, RBC economist guys.

Everything in Newfoundland and Labrador is just wonderful.

Protected by a magic bubble.

Friggin’ loons.

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Yep, that’s unscathed alrightee

The province’s fishing industry saw a 22% drop in the value of fish landings in 2009.

So much for coming through the recession protected by some sort of magic bubble. Then again, some of us mocked that idiotic idea the moment the words slipped out of someone’s mouth.

Now you know that when a provincial politician talks about coming through the recession better than most you know they were only talking about themselves, personally. 

They sure as heck weren’t talking about their constituents.

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The seven percent solution

Mark Griffin, former traitor, spouts the new government policy for rural development which is, to be sure exactly the same policy as other every other government before (save one) that didn’t have any idea what to do to develop the economy successfully either:  shift public service jobs into town and create new public service ones.

Send us a prison says lawyer Mark and quickly too before all that “political capital” is burned up.

Mark.

Bubbie.

We are in a pre-election period.

It could be we are in a pre-leadership period on top of that.

Over the next two years there’ll be no shortage of political will to distribute scarce tax dollars around on any scheme  - no matter how useless, no matter that it has been tried and failed before - that might pay for a few more votes.

Forget a prison.

Dream big.

Think of a gigantic greenhouse for growing things like cucumbers and tomatoes.

Just because it failed before doesn’t mean it can’t be useful again to get that last seven percent.

Mark Griffin, former traitor, may well have hit on the way to get that last seven percent of people fully satisfied.

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Wonderland

 

--and then all the people cheered again, and one man, who was more excited than the rest, flung his hat high into the air, and shouted (as well as I could make out) “Who roar for the Sub-Warden?” Everybody roared, but whether it was for the Sub-Warden, or not, did not clearly appear: some were shouting “Bread!” and some “Taxes!”, but no one seemed to know what it was they really wanted.

Once upon a time, as all good fairy tales must begin, one could explain how to pronounce the name of the place by saying that it rhymed with “understand”.

But since “understand” has gone out of favour both as a word and an idea, one must now try and find a replacement.

What better choice than “Wonderland” for a place that these days most resembles the love child of Tim Burton and John Waters after consuming a truckload of the Peruvian marching powder reputedly popular in local junior high schools these days.

After all, this is a province where cabinet minister after cabinet minister admitted over the past six months that they shagged up public finances – spending is “unsustainable” – and the public response is to give them the highest satisfaction level in the history of polling anywhere in Atlantic Canada.

93%.

Higher than flag stomping time.

Higher than the January 2005 handout cheque victory.

Higher than not one but two back-to-back record surpluses that put more money in public coffers than the entire provincial budget 20 years ago.

Even higher satisfaction than the poll taken after the October 2007 election.

Without any apparent reason, people suddenly decided to be hugely satisfied.

Ah, but it was Danny’s bum ticker getting sympathy, some of you smarties are saying.

Take a look.  In a question in which people could show love for Hisself alone, he could only manage to go from 79% to 81%. Less than half the margin of error.  Hardly a thing worth noting at all, let alone label a surge. Were the Telegram story signed it could have been a job application to the Ministry of Truth.

And if you deconstruct the CRA poll numbers, it is even more bizarre.  After 24 months of steady decline, support for the provincial Tories shot up enough to beat the poll taken right after the 2007 election.

But that’s not all.

Even with satisfaction levels that Sarah Palin and George Bush The Younger could only dream of, still 15% of the people polled actually want someone other than the current Premier to be Premier.  In fact, half the people who want Yvonne Jones running the place instead of Danny Williams actually think that Danny Williams’ crowd is doing a completely or mostly satisfactory job. or maybe all 15% of them do which is even weirder.

Such is life in Wonderland.

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Penashue bails; Matshishkapeu Accord in trouble

Peter Penashue decided to pack it in as deputy grand chief of the Innu Nation.

That leaves the Matshishkapeu Accord in even more doubt than before now that its chief champion is gone to the sidelines. The Accord is crucial to development of the Lower Churchill.

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90 or more Club

The result of just a quickie google scan on politicians with a voter approval of 90% or better:

1.  Sarah Palin (Republican), former Governor of Alaska.

2.  Jon Huntsman, (Republican) former Governor of Utah.

3.  George W. Bush, (Republican) former President of the United States

4.  Hisself.

Interesting.

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And if Glenn Beck says it…

Well ya know it must be true.

Glenn likes Danny, too.

 

Way freakin’ spooky

Danny likes Canada’s health care system and goes to Florida for surgery.

Sarah Palin rants and raves against socialised medicine but admits that her family has come across the border for care.

They’ve been known to share an interest in reading, too.

Interesting.

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Ron Silver: No More.

Rest in peace.

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Financial shorts – Second Monday in March edition

1.  Crack whores rebel:  Icelanders voted against a US$5.3 billion package to deal with part of the country’s financial mess.

“This is a strong no from the Icelandic nation,” said Magnus Arni Skulason, co-founder of a group opposed to the deal.

“The Icelandic public understands that we are sovereign and we have to be treated like a sovereign nation — not being bullied like the British and the Dutch have been doing.”

Sovereign Icelanders may be, but they are also broke.  If they don’t like it when people come looking for their money back – it ain’t bullying, BTW – then maybe they shouldn’t have been running the financial equivalent of a crack-house.

2.  More hidden cash turns up:  There may be a few million extra in provincial coffers when the financial year ends.  This isn’t a windfall or a gift.  It’s just what you get when you compare the actual amount of federal transfers in the current fiscal year - $1.264 billion – to the $988 million reported in Budget 2009 last spring.

Well, that’s if you use the Estimates which gives different numbers than the ones in the budget speech. The numbers in the budget speech are pretty much dead-on the actual federal transfers.

Someone should ask the finance minister to explain why he feels the need to keep two sets of books.

3. Counter-intuitive.  Okay.  Crude is up.  Gold is up and silver is is up as well. US dollar is down.  The American economy shed jobs but not as many as expected.  Some news media are reporting this as a good thing.  Basically, it’s more of the recovery-is-here-yada-yada crap they’ve been fed since this time last year.

If the dollar is down, and oil and gold are up, that’s a sure sign that not only is the US economy not in recovery, it’s virtually a guarantee it won’t recover while prices for things like crude oil are that high.

The American economy needs oil prices to be about half of what they are currently in order to see a recovery tale hold.  And when a recovery does start, it won’t keep going if oil prices shoot back up to their current levels.

In the meantime, stand by for an “adjustment’ sometime in 2010 or early 2011.  The “correction” won’t be as big as the collapse in 2008 but it will hurt.

It will especially hurt any government that doesn’t have its financial house in order.

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She’s funny even if she doesn’t try

Let’s just say that Google's translator didn’t quite get the subtle nuances of a French-language story on Sarah Palin’s speech in Calgary.

Here’s the original:

L’ancienne gouverneure de l’État américain de l’Alaska et ancienne candidate républicaine à la vice-présidence, Sarah Palin, a fait salle comble samedi soir à Calgary.

Here’s the google version.

Ummm.

Not exactly.

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KGB Connections

While some may have viewed it as politically incorrect, CBC followed up on its expose of organized crime in Canada with a documentary on Soviet espionage in North America.

KGB Connections aired in 1982 and doesn’t appear to have aired since. The thing is now in the public domain and the whole program is available on youtube.  local audiences will be interested in the reference to one Soviet spy dropped off in St. John’s when a fishing vessel arrived to change crews and pick up supplies.

This version is in black and white but the show originally aired in colour. A colour version, slightly shorter in length, is also available on youtube.

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Firds of a bleather: legislature edition

The second Monday in March.

That would be this Monday, March 8.

Why is that an important day?

Well, under the standing orders of the House of Assembly, the legislature is supposed to sit:

“in the Winter-Spring from the second Monday in March to the Friday before the Victoria Day weekend with a break from the end of the sitting day on Maundy Thursday to the third Monday after Easter…”.

Seems pretty clear.

And yet, for some completely inexplicable reason the House of Assembly is not being called back into session on Monday, March 8, it being the second Monday in March.

Anyone care to suggest a rational, sensible, plausible and/or very good reason why the House likely won’t be sitting again until two weeks after it was supposed to be back?

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