And no fish swam

For an administration that has always been better known for delivering the sizzle rather than the steak, Premier Danny Williams’ announcement Friday of almost $14 million for fisheries research marks another achievement.

The announcement garnered swift editorial and political support. The Telegram gushed from the first sentence of Saturday’s editorial:

As a general rule, more information is better than less. And that's why the announcement that the province is getting into the fisheries research business in a big way is good news.

So too did the opposition leader, Yvonne Jones and fisheries critic Marshall Dean.  They think that the “funding allocation by the provincial government for fisheries science research is welcome news that should boost the industry’s chances to survive in the long-term.”

Even the language the Premier and the Opposition Leader used was similar.  As Williams put it:

No longer will we exclusively rely upon the research of others to guide the fishery into the future. Today, we once again take control of our destiny by investing in our own fisheries research and development.

Jones chimed in:

Clearly, one of the building blocks in this process [of rebuilding the fishery] has to be sound research that we can trust and use to make strategic management decisions in this industry.

All this is wonderful.  Memorial University and its Marine Institute get a bag of cash with which to hire some new graduate students and post-doctoral researchers.  Dr. George Rose gets a new job as the head of  something to be called the Centre for Fisheries Ecosystem Research.

Even the Irish government is happier after Friday.  The financially strapped country will get a bag of cash – the better part of half the total announced – to help operate its seven year old fisheries research vessel, the Celtic Explorer.

Friday’s announcement is three years overdue. The Progressive Conservative 2007 election platform included these commitments:

• invest $5 million a year in the province's research and development Crown corporation and dedicate $1 million of this funding exclusively for oceans research, [and…]
• provide $6 million for fishing industry research and developmental work over the next three years, which will include work associated with the development of new species, new products, new markets and new techniques to harvest, handle, process and market our marine fish resources.

The program announced on Friday seems to have less to do with genetic engineering [2007’s “development of new species”] or marketing and industry diversification as it does something else that does not appear to be defined beyond the notion that locally generated science might somehow be different from that produced by foreign infidels. The research vessel seems to be an idea cooked up on the spot by Danny Williams during the last provincial campaign.

Much about the announcement seems to be ill-defined.  The whole premise – that local scientists might discover some truths that others haven’t found or are hiding – is, itself, highly suspect.  Rose, for example, and other scientists at Memorial are quite knowledgeable about the fisheries ecosystem.  They and their predecessors have been studying the ocean and the creatures living in it for decades.

Perhaps that lack of definition is because the whole thing was hastily pulled together. It would appear that Friday’s announcement didn’t really exist until some six weeks ago. A month and a half ago, the provincial government was getting a political pounding for the latest in what has been a series of failures and fiascos.  The government has no fisheries policy worthy of the name;  that too has been painfully obvious from problems in some sectors of the fishery and the decidedly poor progress on the memorandum of understanding.

What better way might there be to get out of a raft of political sinkholes, one can imagine the Old Man thinking, than to change the channel.  Announce more cash for something  - it’s always about the money with these guys - and trot out the stuff that’s always worked before: the old pseudo-nationalist rhetoric. Never mind that the announcement will fall on a Friday smack in the middle of a holiday long weekend.

The one thing we know about this announcement is that it wasn’t about “[b]etter fisheries management through better fisheries science” and “an opportunity to improve and sustain this industry.”

The problem in the fishery today is the same as it was 18 years ago.  The problem is not a lack of knowledge, scientific (biological) or otherwise. The problem is a lack of political will to make decisions for a fishery that is both economically and environmentally sustainable.

Cod stocks collapsed because politicians opted to meet the demands of their constituents to keep fishing at unsustainably high levels when the scientists  - federally-funded scientists - said it would be a good idea to slow down or stop.  John Crosbie closed the fishery in 1992 because he had no choice.  There were no more fish.

And there never will be any more cod or any other fish stock for that matter as long as people disregard knowledge and make decisions based on unvarnished self-interest.  Whether it is the head of the hunters and gatherers union who wants to increase quotas on an endangered species (cod), to Open Line callers, or the blocheads who think cod jigging is some sort of racial entitlement or to the politicians  - federal and provincial  - who side with them daily, they all speak based on something other than sound, verifiable knowledge.

So spending $14 million won’t make a difference to that.

Spend $140 million.

Same result.

Heck, spend the entire anticipated cost of the non-existent Lower Churchill project - $14 billion – and you will still have the same calls for continued fishing.

Knowledge is not the problem in the fishery.

Impotence is.

And no amount of money, no army of scientists, no fleet of research vessels will ever find a little blue pill to cure that problem.

- srbp -

Update:  The dog whistling worked.

Tentative deal at Vale in Ontario

From the Globe and Mail:

The end to a long-running and bitter strike in Ontario is in sight as mining giant Vale announced it reached a tentative agreement with production and maintenance workers on Sunday.

The metals miner says the agreement involves a new five-year contract with United Steel Workers Locals 6500 and 6200, which represent production and maintenance employees in Sudbury and Port Colborne.

No word on Sunday about a possible settlement of the year-long strike at Vale Inco’s Voisey’s bay operation.

-srbp-

The harsh reality

While someone in the provincial government may have decided that an estimated population increase of 96 people was something to crow about, surely there is more good news than just that.

Why of course there is, as the new release writer tells us, via a quote from the minister involved:

For seven successive quarters now, there has been a net inflow of people to the province,” said the Honourable Tom Marshall, Minister of Finance and President of Treasury Board. “This sustained gain is encouraging, and an indication that more people recognize and have confidence in the opportunities offered in Newfoundland and Labrador.”

Sure enough, if you take the Statistics Canada numbers and graph them you will see what appears to be a net increase in population over time.

As the chart shows, there has been net growth overall  - not just in migration flow - in the last four quarters.
But just take a look at the drop from the third quarter in 2005;  10,000 fewer in the province by the middle of 2007 compared to two years earlier.  Since then the gains have been generally more modest each quarter.

Still, it’s an upward trend and those loyal to the cause will surely take that as a good thing.

Before you get too happy, though, try graphing the change in the population each quarter compared to the one previous to it.  You’ll get something that looks like this:
Here you’ll find something decidedly less comforting. Not only has there been a net loss in population over time, you can notice that there has been a rather precipitous drop in the rate of increase over the last three quarters.  in other words, while the population is going up each quarter, it is going by less and less.  First it was about 1350 or so in the second and third quarter of last year, then 533 and then a mere 96 for the first quarter of 2010.

That’s pretty much what you’ll see in the big chart of population, by the way.  Think of the most trend as being potentially like a ball thrown into the air: it goes higher and higher  but as it runs out of energy, it  climbs less and less.  Then at a point, gravity becomes the dominant force and down she comes again.

Now that may not be what is going on here, but odds are the net growth in population due to people coming here will start slowing.  The growth from the middle of 2007 onwards was due entirely to Newfoundlanders and Labradorians returning home as the first casualties of an impending recession.  Think of them as canaries in a coal mine.

Except for a big drop in early 2009, the population has been going up as the recession took hold nationally.  Stimulus spending took a while to work into the economy so there isn’t a perfect match between the local population and the deepening of the recession.  Overall though it’s a bit hard to mistake the connection between the recession on the one hand and the local growth in population.

And don’t forget, either, that the local economy actually shrank here by 10% last year.  If it wasn’t for the massive government infrastructure spending, things would have been much more bleak.  That public money continues to flow this year and  has already been credited with driving a huge chunk of the economic growth. 

It’s not like the province is an Alberta-like hotbed of private sector investment, no matter how much the provincial would like you to think otherwise.

So if things are actually getting better elsewhere, it would only make sense that the local population growth would slow down.  Don’t be surprised if the population starts to drop again within the next two quarters.

On the other hand, pay attention to the news.  If we are looking at a “w”-shaped recession – that is if there’s another slowdown – the population will jump up again.

And just to keep all this in perspective, take a look at an opinion piece in this weekend’s National Post.  The subject is Alberta.  Note the similarity in the situation there and here:

Last week, for instance, the government crowed that it had nearly demolished the projections for the 2009-10 deficit, overspending by just $1-billion instead of the nearly $5-billion expected. The reason, however, was due to higher-than-expected royalty revenues from the oil sands, and not more careful fiscal management in Edmonton, where spending continues to swell. This year's projected deficit is still heading toward breaking red-ink records, unless serendipity again intervenes.

There are other economic indicators to examine, as the Post piece notes, but just think about what it means when a provincial government crows about a net growth in population of a mere 96 people after a loss of 10,000 in two years.

-srbp-

Traffic Drivers, June 28 to July 2

1. NL population up by estimated 96 people (28 Jun)
2. Potential investor quits mill talks, accuses government of “overt politicization”: CBC
3. Mind-boggled Dunderdale continues to blunder
4. In Alberta, they have problems too…
5. Beaumont Hamel
6. Potential GFW mill buyer in German bankruptcy protection for second time in six years (extend the date range to 26 Jun when this was first posted and it becomes the Number One story)
7. Five years of secret talks on Lower Churchill:  the Dunderdale audio
8. Motion Invest’s statement on Grand falls-Windsor project
9. A Crown corporation by any other name
10. Calamity Kath Dunderdale:  the Miracle Max ploy

- srbp -

The Delusion of Competence

Natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale, in full rhetorical flight during Question Period in the legislature, May 26, 2010:

Mr. Speaker, when the members opposite sat over here they certainly had no expertise in developing deals, negotiating contracts, as we saw on a number of occasions in the fourteen years of their mandate. Voisey’s which we had to renegotiate, I tell the Opposition Leader, Mr. Speaker.

No shortage of confidence in her own abilities and that of colleagues, would you dare say? Not much, at all especially in her own estimation.  In fact, Dunderdale seems supremely confident in her assessment that her crowd will do better than the crowd that went before.

Friends and supporters of the current administration would likely all nod in agreement and might even offer that Dunderdale’s confidence in their abilities is well justified. Confidence, after all, is something people usually assume comes with competence.

But it isn’t a safe assumption.

Research at Cornell in 1999 showed that the tendency to braggadocio is associated with people who are actually less competent than others. The confidence people often see in others, especially when expressed as a self-appraisal is pretty much a product of self-delusion. 

Remember the old saying “buy him for what he’s worth and sell him for what he thinks he’s worth?  That’s pretty much exactly the phenomenon researchers found.

Very often, people think they are much better at tasks than they actually are.  Now in an of itself, that hardly seems like a penetrating insight into anything except the obvious.  Well, that might be true except that you actually have to apply these little observations. Bear in mind that people who pump themselves up are likely actually not very good at whatever they are bragging about. 

Think about the delusion of competence when someone engages in excessive self-congratulation, in public oratorical onanism as your humble e-scribbler used to call it.

Or brags and blusters as Dunderdale did at the beginning of the whole Lott/Motion Invest affair and then performs far short of her self-appraisal when all is said and done.

-srbp-

When the quota of good news meets a failure to perform

The provincial government’s business department issued a news release today crowing about an estimated increase of the province’s population by a mere 96 people.

To see the business department’s stunning record of success to date, check out the list of news releases for 2010 or read about the fragile economy.

What will they say when the recovery sets in and outmigration resumes once more?

-srbp-

WGB re-releases original album on CD this Saturday

Straight from the release:

“The Wonderful Grand Band is pleased to announce the release of its very first record album The Wonderful Grand Band on CD.

Recorded at Clode Sound Studios in Stephenville in 1978 after the success of their first television series The Root Seller, the album features the original band members Sandy Morris, Ron Hynes, Kelly Russell, Glenn Simmons, Rocky Wiseman, Bryan Hennessey and Bawnie Oulton and also a guest appearance on one track by Peter Narvaez. The album was mastered at Joāo Carvalho Mastering in Toronto in 2010.

The Wonderful Grand Band CD is a collector’s treat for any fans of the Wonderful Grand Band or Newfoundland music. The CD has the original version of Sonny’s Dream and several other Ron Hynes songs and it marks the first recording of the late great Emile Benoit’s tunes. Kelly Russell, the founding fiddler player with the Band and a great collector of Newfoundland fiddle tunes, also appears in his only recording with the WGB. As well, on the CD you will hear the familiar vocal harmonies of the talented Bawnie Oulton, also an original member of the WGB and long-time resident of St. John’s who passed away in Nova Scotia May 30, 2010. The Band was saddened by Bawnie’s untimely passing and is pleased to be able to present her to the public on this long-awaited CD.

The CD is part of the Wonderful Grand Band’s effort to release some of its body of work to its fans. In November the WGB toured Newfoundland and Labrador to promote the release of the DVDs The Best of WGB Vol 1 and 2 from the TV series WGB. On July 31, the Wonderful Grand Band will be appearing at That Show in Gander, and on Aug 7 they will be performing at the Folk Festival in Bannerman Park in St John’s. Tickets are already selling fast for both events.

The CD will be released in stores July 3, 2010 and at Fred’s Records the first 25 customers will receive a free poster of the CD release.

For further information, or to get your media copy of the WGB CD contact White at WGB Management 709-722-7775 and visit our new website at www.wonderfulgrandband.com.”

-srbp-

Calamity Kathy’s story doesn’t add up

From a cbc.ca/nl story posted on Wednesday June 30, here’s natural resources minister and deputy premier Kathy Dunderdale after the people of the province learned that a company she said had been interested in the Grand Falls-Windsor mill was insolvent and after the investor backed away from the deal:

Dunderdale said she was aware of the company's troubled financial past.

"We knew that there were financial issues, but we knew that their investment wasn't coming from Lott Paper," said Dunderdale.

But here’s what Dunderdale said about the troubled financial past of the company before Saturday, June 26 when Bond Papers posted the news that the company Dunderdale identified as the interested party was insolvent yet again:

Speaking with reporters outside the legislature on June 24, Dunderdale was unequivocal about the name of the company:

The minister revealed that the company, later identified as Lott Paper, is in the process of submitting a business plan. [The Advertiser]

or…

Responding to questions in the legislature, Dunderdale said Lott Paper is working with the government in hopes of acquiring the Grand Falls-Windsor mill that closed in February 2009. [CBC version]

None of this gets better in her scrum on June 30.  During the scrum [posted to cbc.ca/nl] Dunderdale claims that the individual who visited the Grand Falls-Windsor mill site explained to her that the investment would be coming from Motion Invest.  So why then did she claim it was from Lott when she ought to have clearly known the difference, that is if she’d actually met the chap, had his business card and understood clearly in may who was putting up the cash?

She was also pretty clear about what the company did on May 26:

"It's a pulp and paper company that sees some opportunity because Abitibi is withdrawing from its markets in Europe," Dunderdale later told reporters.

"It's a very credible company, but it's very early days."

And as for the caution Dunderdale now claims she had all along – the “reservation” to use her own word -  let’s just say that Calamity Kathy has a very short memory. 

On May 25, New Democratic Party leader Lorraine Michael asked a simple question:

Since that is so important - I agree it is - I am asking the Premier: Are they out looking for that major industrial customer to make that happen [to drive industrial development in central Newfoundland]? That is the question I am asking.

Dunderdale did not reply with a general answer that the government was actively seeking expressions of interest, would continue to do so and would announce anything when there was concrete news to report.

No.

She did not do that.

Instead she said:

While we have not had the results that we are looking for particularly from that Expression of Interest, Mr. Speaker; I am happy to say that we have had an Expression of Interest from Germany last week, principals in, looking at what we have to offer in Central Newfoundland. We are very hopeful about that prospect, Mr. Speaker.

We are very hopeful about that prospect, Mr. Speaker.

She avoided a general answer that would have certainly prevented anyone from having any false expectations or hopes.  She decided not to give a non-committal answer, one that would be prudent given that  - as any experienced negotiator knows – there is a long way between the first contact and the final deal.

Instead, she said the government had an expression of interest and that “we” – the provincial government – were full of hope about it.

Not cautiously optimistic.

Not wary.

Not concerned, lest people get too excited too early.

Hopeful.

Her caution, such as it was in both May and a month later, seemed to be more about ensuring the public didn’t expect something to happen very suddenly.  Her claim on Wednesday that she had reservations all along just isn’t backed up by her own public statements. 

Dunderdale only developed any serious reservations about the company once Bond Papers and others revealed the financial problems with the company.  And if those concerns weren’t enough, CBC did a fine job of digging out greater detail on the potential investors themselves.  All this information was readily available to anyone doing some fairly simple checks. it isn’t rocket science.

All of this checking ought to have been done from the outset.  Instead, if one listens to Dunderdale’s scrum from Wednesday,  it is clear that neither she nor her staff did anything to check into the company.  Dunderdale states at one point well into the questioning that her staff would only do the necessary analysis -doing “due diligence”  as Dunderdale puts it in her cliche-ridden way of speaking – once the company sent along a detailed business plan.

Nor is all of this confusion on Dunderdale’s part the only sort of problems there are with this most recent of her cock-ups.  Take a good listen to the scrum.  What she claimed on June 24 was a letter of intent with a great amount of detail has morphed – now that the problems with the company are in public – into something that wasn’t sufficiently detailed enough for anyone to make a decision on. On June 24 she described the letter – now with insufficient information – as being a business plan.

All of this goes back to an episode much like the current one.  It dates from the days when Dunderdale was in charge of the business development portfolio.  Then as now, Dunderdale was long on meaningless jargon - “due diligence piece” and very short on either comprehension or details.

As Bond Papers put it in 2005:

She also said this information turned up by reporters wouldn't have "negatively impacted" on government's decision, had it been known.

The problem, Kath is not that you might have acted differently if you knew. The point is you just didn't have all relevant information in front of you when you opened my chequebook to hand some American company some of my cash.

The problem is that we out here among the toiling masses don't know what else it is that you don't know before you make a decision.

Five years later and with considerably more public money up for grabs here, Kathy Dunderdale’s old problem – making decisions without having adequate information – remains the same.  So too does her apparent inability to understand what it is that she actually does have in the first place.

Dunderdale has considerably more power now than she did in 2005. 

The public still cannot be assured, however, of what she doesn’t know – or care to know – before she’s prepared to carry forward with a project involving potentially tens of millions of dollars of public money.

This is no way to run a provincial government and it is astonishing that the Premier, as capable a businessman as he supposedly is, would allow this situation to continue for five years.

-srbp-

Addendum: From an exchange in the comments section, here are a string of questions coming out of this latest fiasco that need answers. 

The answers are important not merely to get to the bottom of this particular episode;  they are important because the public should be assured of exactly what the provincial government policy is on using public money to subsidize private businesses.  The answers are important because they can give the public some assurance that those in charge of handing out public cash are capable of doing the job of protecting the public interest they get paid to do.

1. If Dunderdale knew the difference between Lott and Motion Invest, when did she know it?

2. Was it before or after she claimed that Lott was the company that would be investing?

3. If she had concerns about the company's financial state, did she have them before or after Lott's bankrupt status was made public (not by Dunderdale)?

4. If she had any doubts at all about this company and its interest, then why did she even mention the whole affair on May 25 and therefore set up the circumstance on June 24 [in which she was asked a follow-on question]?

5. Since she is a cabinet minister with knowledge (presumably), why does she elect to blame someone for merely asking a question?

6. Is the whole thing on or off? According to her comments in the scrum, it's only nearly almost dead. According to the excellent reporting at [the Telegram], the deal is dead.

7. Therefore, what exactly did she say to Roche and what did he say to her in their telephone conversations on Wednesday that could lead to two diametrically opposed comments? [Update:  According to Dunderdale in the scrum, she never spoke to Roche:  her unidentified CEO did.  That raises another question: which CEO was it -  Ed Martin or the agrifoods boss?  This sort of thing should be going through Ross Wiseman’s department.]

8. And since we are asking, why did she make several calls on Wednesday given that she basically pissed all over the company and their proposal publicly the night before?

9. What is the difference between a letter of intent and a business plan?'

10. Did Kathy actually read the letter from Roche (or whoever sent it)?

11. Will the government pour cash and other subsidies into any venture or will they stand by her earlier comment that there was no cash available?

12. If there is no cash, why didn't she just tell Roche that $52 million was nonsense instead of considering the proposal?

13. If there is cash, then how much is government willing to pour into a venture?

14. Would the government cash be in an equity stake or would it be - as with others - basically like a set of free steak knives for playing the game?

Beaumont Hamel

If you want to know more about the attack at Beaumont Hamel, July 1, 1916, being remembered across Newfoundland and Labrador today, visit this section  - Newfoundland Beaumont Hamel Memorial Park - of an excellent website on the entire Somme campaign.  The website is a production of the Imperial War Museum.

-srbp-

June Traffic Drivers – Happy Canada Day!

Of the 12,500 visitors who read 17,260 pages in June, these are the top 10 pages for the month:

1. Sun News?  Ya gotta be kidding
2. Five years of secret talks on the Lower Churchill:  the Dunderdale audio
3. Telling quotes:  Lower Churchill version
4. A Crown corporation by any other name
5. Eventually the other guys will lose
6. Salma Hayek and Maria Bello freak out over a snake
7. Potential GFW mill buyer in German bankruptcy protection for the second time in six years
8. Lower Churchill costs:  now up to $14 billion and counting
9. Roger Fitzgerald’s bias
10. The World the Old Man Lives in (larger picture)

The top post for June isn’t surprising at all: word of a new news channel in the country caught attention across the country.

But look at Number Two:  the story the local conventional news media  have deliberately ignored for 10 months.

Right behind that, another Lower Churchill story that gained some national attention after the Premier’s speech in Ottawa. More people read that post that showed up for the speech.

Once again, a post on the sorry state of our provincial democracy made the top 10 list.  This time it is one about the political culture that feeds the current dysfunction. Add that to the one about Roger Fitzgerald’s blatant partisan bias  - a most unwelcome trait in a Speaker - and you can tell that a fair number of people are concerned about the decline in public life in the province.

Now let’s see what July looks like.

-srbp-

Forget-me-not 2010

- srbp -

Calamity Kath Dunderdale: the Miracle Max Ploy

Whoo-hoo-hoo, look who knows so much. It just so happens that your friend here is only *mostly* dead. There's a big difference between mostly dead and all dead. Mostly dead is slightly alive. With all dead, well, with all dead there's usually only one thing you can do.

On the one hand there is the CBC account of the latest Dunderdale-torqued version of  the Lott/Motion Invest proposal for Grand Falls-Windsor:

Despite several confusing twists and amidst accusations of 'confidentiality breaches' and 'misrepresentations' from a company seeking to revive a paper mill in central Newfoundland, the province's deputy premier says the deal may not be completely dead.

Then there is the version from the Telegram, straight from the company spokesperson:

“To be clear Motion Invests’ position has not changed since its release, and we have not communicated any message to any person in government which indicated otherwise,” the spokesman wrote in an e-mail to The Telegram.

Given Dunderdale’s propensity to shag things up so badly and blatantly, it’s amazing the Ceeb is still giving her the positive play on her obvious torque-ploys.

But when she starts channeling characters from the Princess Bride?

It’s just as well to go through the pockets and look for loose change.

Miracle Max knew what to do.

-srbp-

Motion Invest’s statement on Grand Falls-Windsor project

“Date of Release : 28th June 2010

Motion Invest withdraws it's interests in the former Abitibi Bowater newsprint mill at Grand Falls-Windsor Canada

Motion Invest announced today that it has no longer any interest in the Abitibi Bowater newsprint mill at Grand Falls-Windsor Canada.

Motion Invest had been in confidential discussions to undertake a feasibility / viability study into creating a new non-newspaper print mill at Grand Falls-Windsor Canada.

However due to recent and wholly incorrect reports / statements that it was close to a deal to purchase the Abitibi Bowater newsprint mill in Grand Falls-Windsor Canada, Motion Invest has now decided to withdraw its interest.

At no time was Motion Invest ever close to preparing any offer for the Grand Falls-Windsor.  Its interest was wholly subject to the completion of a feasibility / viability study into moving production at the Grand Falls-Windsor mills away from newsprint production. 

Motion Invest has already spent over $ 75,000 conducting a preliminary review and site inspection of the mill regrets that the serious breach in the confidentiality and the misrepresentation of its interest in the mill makes the continuation of the project unviable.

Accordingly Motion Invest has been left with no option withdrawn its interest.”

-srbp-

Mind-boggled Dunderdale continues to blunder

In an interview with CBC, natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale misrepresented her own earlier comments on talks to re-activate the paper mill at Grand Falls-Windsor.

According to a story at cbc.ca/nl, Dunderdale said:

“We have said very little about it. My response was a reply to a direct question in the house of assembly [sic] when the leader of the Opposition [sic] asked had we received a proposal from this company."

But that’s only partially correct if one limits consideration to a fraction of what she said last week.

Dunderdale first discussed the interest in the mill in response to a question in the House of Assembly on May 25 from New Democratic Party leader Lorraine Michael.  She didn’t name the company but she did make it sound very up-beat and positive:

We are very hopeful about that prospect, Mr. Speaker.

The next day in the House she didn’t issue many notes of caution either.  Rather, Dunderdale was full of bluster about the ability of her party to negotiate with companies compared to the inability of the other crowd.  Then she added this bit:

Mr. Speaker, we have a very good company coming out of Germany that have expressed an interest in that fibre.

Dunderdale also told reporters that she expected to have further contact and that the visit to the mill was a sign of the seriousness with which the company – consistently identified as being a company with paper-making experience – was viewing the mill:

The indication of their seriousness, Mr. Speaker, is they sent somebody from Germany to have a look at this mill. When I asked him what his observations were, he told me quite frankly that it was exactly what he had expected to see. They have gone back to do some work. We expect to have some kind of a submission from them in the next month or so, Mr. Speaker, and based on that we will see where we go.

It’s likely no coincidence that Dunderdale raised the site visit and potential interest at the same time that the opposition was hammering Dunderdale and her cabinet colleagues over revelations about the botched mill expropriation.

Getting her facts wrong is nothing new for Dunderdale on this issue.

As recently as last week, Dunderdale continued to link the company to pulp and paper production, something now known to be wrong.

Dunderdale also indicated in the House of Assembly that the company had submitted a business plan that was being assessed by three government departments.  Outside the legislature, though, she told reporters government had received a detailed letter and expected to have a business plan from the company – identified as Lott – on Monday, June 28. [Report starts at 2:30.]

According to a news release sent to CBC on Tuesday June 29, and quoted online, the company – now identified as Motion Invest was withdrawing its expression of interest in the mill.  And the release also identifies the potential project as being about something other than making newsprint:

“Motion Invest had been in confidential discussions to undertake a feasibility-viability study into creating a new non-newspaper print mill. However, due to recent and wholly incorrect reports and statements that it was close to a deal to purchase, Motion Invest has now decided to withdraw its interest,"

In comments to CBC on Tuesday, Dunderdale also claims that she didn’t miss-speak when she identified the company interested in the mill as Lott, a company that is in bankruptcy protection, rather than Motion Invest.

Dunderdale is confirming the new information which is in the public domain:

"The first contact we had was from Bob Roche on behalf of Lott Paper. The investment was going to be made by Motion Invest," she said. "The principal who was interested in making this investment was a principle with Lott Paper who would be bringing the knowledge and experience from Lott Paper to Grand Falls-Windsor, even though the investment was coming from Motion Invest."

Dunderdale never once mentioned Motion Invest at all until the company issued its own news release to CBC.

- srbp -

Potential investor quits mill talks, accuses government of “overt politicization”: CBC

CBC’s David Cochrane reported this evening that the investment company that had expressed interest in the defunct Grand Falls-Windsor paper mill is withdrawing its offer. The first segment is at about 15:00 into the Here and Now broadcast.

Cochrane quoted from a statement issued by the company shortly after 1800 hrs Newfoundland Daylight Savings Time. 

According to the statement, Lott Feinpappen was never the company looking at the mill.  Instead it was a company called Motion Invest, in which an individual named Bob Roche was a principle.

Roche is quoted as saying that at no time was Motion Invest close to an offer for the mill.  There was an interest in doing a feasibility study on moving the mill away from what Cochrane described as unprofitable newsprint production.

In the statement as reported by CBC, Roche accuses the provincial government of a “serious breach of confidentiality of a commercial issue” of wholely incorrect statements and misrepresentations of Motion Invest’s intentions.

In the most recent session of the House, Dunderdale boasted about the ability of the current administration to negotiate successfully with companies.

The statement appeared to have been drafted in some haste, according to Cochrane, as it contained as many “broadsides” against the government as it did spelling mistakes.

Cochrane added to his report at about 49:00 with initial provincial government reaction.

According to Cochrane, natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale found the Motion Invest comments to be “mindboggling” and “absolutely incorrect.”  The proposal went well beyond a feasibility study and included targets and timelines.  

The company was also looking for loans and loan guarantees totalling $52 million, according to Dunderdale. 

The provincial government may release documents within the next 24 hours but is currently consulting with justice department lawyers.

Dunderdale told reporters in St. John’s last week that the company was looking for financial assistance.  She did not specify what the amount was at the time.

The latest information is also significantly different from Dunderdale’s previous comments in which she consistently described the project as being about a pulp and paper operation of the type already in the defunct mill.  In late May, she said:

“It's a pulp and paper company that sees some opportunity because Abitibi is withdrawing from its markets in Europe.”

Dunderdale also initially rejected the idea of the government providing “big loan guarantees or big subsidies.” 

However, by last week she was more concerned to “understand clearly what they are looking for from us”.

Provincial government policy includes interest free loans and outright gifts of cash for companies.

Update:  Motion Investment’s brief statement

 

-srbp-

In Alberta, they have problems too…

with a biased, incompetent Speaker in the provincial legislature.  As the Calgary Herald quoted recently:

In an unprecedented attack, she [Danielle Smith] went after legislature Speaker Ken Kowalski for twisting the rules to keep his party in power.

"The Speaker needs to remember that his job is to serve the interests of all Alberta," Smith said.

"Time and again he has failed in that role and failed Albertans. And make no mistake, it is Ed Stelmach who has given the Speaker permission to run roughshod over Alberta's democracy. . . ."

"I think Albertans are as shocked as we are by the behaviour of this government, having seen the games they play, having seen how they treat Albertans, having seen how they push around political leaders and bully their own caucus. . . . I don't recognize them as the party I once supported."

How many people in this province say the same sort of thing about the shenanigans that go on here?

Hint:  it’s a lot more than the freshie-gulpers would like you to believe.

-srbp-

Dunderdale still awaiting proposal from bankrupt company; spokesperson promises “due diligence”

According to cbc.ca/nl, natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale is still expecting a business plan from a German company to take over the Grand Falls-Windsor paper mill.

An unnamed spokesperson in Dunderdale’s office promised that the department will conduct “due diligence” on the proposal.

But as Bond Papers readers learned on Sunday, the company – Lott Feinpappen – has been in bankruptcy protection since June 15.

CBC added more detail on Monday:

As well, a lawyer with the Achern firm of Schultze & Braun told CBC News that Lott does not have the cash to pursue ventures, and cannot do business in Canada because of its legal situation.

The lawyer told CBC News that Lott is currently in "deep trouble." The German state is covering workers' wages at Lott — which produces high-quality paperboard products, and which has been in business for more than a century — until the end of August.

Insolvency procedures are to start in Germany in September.

In a news release late Monday, opposition leader Yvonne Jones said that this new information on Lott “highlights [the] careless and superficial work by government in not learning and disclosing this information to the public.”

Jones said that the provincial government “likes to talk due diligence, but rarely performs it.”

-srbp-

NL population up by estimated 96 people

Don’t worry.

You read that correctly.

Statistics Canada estimates the population in Newfoundland and Labrador went from an estimated 510,805 to estimated 510,901.

96 people.

- srbp -

Potential GFW mill buyer in German bankruptcy protection for second time in six years

The same week German papermaker Lott sent deputy premier and natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale a detailed letter proposing to take over the former AbitibiBowater mill in Grand Falls-Windsor,  the company went into bankruptcy protection in Germany.

According to the Insolvenz Rategeber:

Über das Vermögen der  Lott Feinpappen GmbH & Co. KG in Achern wurde Insolvenzantrag gestellt. Der Antrag erfolgte durch eine Gläubigerin des Unternehmens. Betroffen sind 70 Mitarbeiter, deren Löhne für die kommenden drei Monate über das Insolvenzgeld abgesichert sind.

The company – which employs 70 people – previously sought bankruptcy protection in 2004.

The premier’s hand-picked deputy told the House of Assembly on Thursday that she had received a business plan from the company the week previously:

Mr. Speaker, late last week we received a business plan from this company. It is currently undergoing assessment by us, the Department of Finance and the Department of Business. We do not have anything further to report at this time, Mr. Speaker, until that analysis is completed.

Outside the House, she told reporters that she was waiting to receive the business plan. What the company had sent was a detailed letter.

According to euwid-papier.de, Lott sought bankruptcy protection on June.

Dunderdale told reporters on Thursday that the provincial government would study the proposal very carefully.  Dunderdale raised hopes in central Newfoundland in late May by announcing in the legislature that representatives of a then-unnamed company had toured the mill and were interested in re-opening it. Apparently, even though she assured people of the province that her officials would review any proposal carefully, no one had, up to that time, done a preliminary review of the company and its financial history.

This is not the first time the Premier’s carefully chosen right hand has run into problems with business proposals.  As Bond Papers noted in 2005:

Then yesterday, we find out that no one [in Dunderdale’s department]bothered to check out American call-centre company Teletech using what Jack Harris has hilariously referred to as due diligence for dummies: the Internet search engine google.

Dunderdale is well known for blunders.  Some have been laughable.  Some are just plain ridiculous. Some are far more serious.  The deputy premier misled the legislature in 2006 over public tender act violations by a former Tory candidate filling a pork-barrel appointment.

In 2009, the deputy premier told the legislature a memorandum of understanding with Rhode Island for Lower Churchill had fallen through because the state lacked the necessary legislative jurisdiction to handle some aspects of the deal.  Turns out that NALCOR just couldn’t get the power to the state at a competitive price.

Dunderdale has also been known to score the odd own-goal of a far more  significant nature.  In September 2009, she revealed that she and Danny Williams had tried unsuccessfully for five years to interest Hydro-Quebec in an ownership stake in the Lower Churchill.  The deal would have been without redress for the disastrous 19569 Churchill falls contracts.  Before 2003 Williams insisted any deal he signed on the Lower Churchill would have to include redress. 

The secret talks to sell a stake in the Lower Churchill remains the biggest story of the Williams administration which has still not be reported by any mainstream media.

-srbp-

Traffic drivers: June 21-25

1. A Crown corporation by any other name
2. China and CSIS:  the naive and sentimental writers
3. Today in history (Meech Lake)
4. The Spleen (Bill Rowe)
5. Government of Newfoundland and Labrador Hiring Test (Communication Directors)
6. Rowe book due this fall. Why?
7. Public money in inflatable shelter company now hits $4 million in four years
8. The Money Program
9. Suns News?  Ya gotta be kidding.
10. Government Talking Points:  the oil spill will never reach the shore edition

Bonus:  Spleen Audio! Here’s Bill in all his call-us interruptus glory.

This is what people in the blog business call a bizarre week.

Why bizarre?  Because an old post about Bill Rowe eclipsed the one posted fresh this week.

More on that way below, but other than that the traffic drivers were pretty straight forward.

Clearly people are interested enough in a company getting huge wads of public cash in a short time.  Three top posts this week relate to Dynamic Air Shelters.

Meech Lake grabbed a bit of attention even though the topic isn’t at all obvious in the headline.

China/CSIS and Sun News were popular national stories so that pretty much makes sense.  Undoubtedly more than a few people were surprised to learn the current administration in Newfoundland and Labrador had signed a pretty generous  memorandum of understanding in 2004 with a company they should have been more cautious about. Then again, this would be the first time they’ve blundered into something anyone with basic google skills could have warned them about.

The hiring test is clearly humourous.  Some people make have mistakenly thought from the headline it might be real.  Hopefully, they enjoyed the chuckle.

Posted late in the week, the oilspill quotes clearly hit a chord, just eclipsing a post about Dipper candidate in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl Ryan Cleary and the discrepancies in his story about why he left voice of the cabinet minister as its late night talk show host.

If the problem with VOCM was that Cleary wanted to spend more time with the family, being a member of parliament would be more incompatible with that goal than spending five nights a week yacking to the locals about whatever is on their sometimes less-than-sober minds.

Usually, it is a bad idea to draw attention to your own major shag-ups.  In this case it turned out to be a really, really idea for PAP as the smear attempt backfired big-time. Anyone who clicked through to BP clearly loved that Cleary post plus the old stuff about Billy Rowe. 

Double own-goal!

Just like the IRA bomb-maker in Belfast who liked to shift the nitrogen fertilizer around on his concrete garage floor using a metal shovel.

They never did find all of him, let alone the shovel or the garage or chunks of the backyard.

-srbp-

US courts accept AbitibiBowater backstop commitment agreement

AbitibiBowater issued the following on Friday: US$ ABWTQ (OTC)

MONTREAL, June 25 /CNW Telbec/ - AbitibiBowater Inc. today announced that, in connection with its creditor protection proceedings and exit financing efforts, the Company has obtained approval of a backstop commitment agreement by the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware. On May 24, 2010, the Company had announced that it had secured a backstop commitment from certain unsecured note holders for a rights offering of up to $500 million. In this rights offering, AbitibiBowater would offer new convertible notes with a seven-year maturity from the date of closing to eligible unsecured creditors. Upon the effective date of the plan, the notes would be obtained upon exercise of the rights and convertible into common stock of the emerged company. Additional information on this rights offering has been disclosed in the Company's court filings, which are available at www.abitibibowater.com/restructuring.

"We are pleased with today's court approval which supports our exit financing efforts. This is another important step forward as we look ahead to the Company's ultimate emergence from credit protection scheduled for early this Fall," stated David J. Paterson, President and Chief Executive Officer. "The Company expects to emerge with a significantly improved financial position, resulting from its efforts to reduce costs, lower debt and mitigate the impact of ongoing market and currency fluctuations."

Before emerging from creditor protection, the Company must obtain adequate exit financing and complete efforts to address labor costs and pension issues, as well as satisfy other conditions set forth in the plans of reorganization. AbitibiBowater has commenced a process to obtain an exit financing package that will provide sufficient capital for the emerged company to manage business operations and execute its plans.

Ultimately, the Company's plans of reorganization will require creditor approval and confirmation by the courts. Affected unsecured creditors who are entitled to vote will receive the court-approved disclosure and voting materials, which are expected to be mailed in July subject to court approvals. More information about AbitibiBowater's restructuring process can be found at www.abitibibowater.com or by calling toll-free 888 266-9280. International callers should dial 503 597-7698.

-srbp-

Government Talking Points: the oil will never reach shore edition #oilspill

Danny Williams, speaking in the House of Assembly in May 2010, as reported by CBC:

"As recently as this morning, we've looked at just exactly what the situations are in the North Atlantic," Williams said.

"It is a general understanding that because the offshore sites are significantly offshore and well east of the province that ... there's a lower likelihood that oil would actually come ashore in Newfoundland and Labrador."

From the Wall Street Journal, June 2010:

BP PLC and other big oil companies based their plans for responding to a big oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico on U.S. government projections that gave very low odds of oil hitting shore, even in the case of a spill much larger than the current one.

Natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale, in the House of Assembly, June 2010, as quoted by the Telegram:

  Mr. Speaker, based on 40 to 50 years of wind study, it is shown that oil, because of the wave action and the coldness of the sea, Mr. Speaker, breaks up and disperses. ... Mr. Speaker, we had an oil spill in 2004 on the Terra Nova. Mr. Speaker, that oil dispersed, broke up, and went away. Ocean floor studies have been done, Mr. Speaker, there is no evidence of oil from that oil spill on the floor around our Terra Nova project.

The WSJ, again:

The government models, which oil companies are required to use but have not been updated since 2004, assumed that most of the oil would rapidly evaporate or get broken up by waves or weather.

 

-srbp-

China and CSIS: the naive and sentimental writers

Richard Fadden, head of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service said something a few days ago that did not go down well with many people.

In an interview taped on Monday past with Peter Mansbridge, Fadden said:

“We're in fact a bit worried in a couple of provinces that we have an indication that there's some political figures who have developed quite an attachment to foreign countries."

In the days since CBC broadcast the interview, Fadden issued a public apology in which he retracted his statement that CSIS was discussing with the Privy Council Office how best to deal with the provincial government’s involved.

Some commentators have made a big deal out of the fact Fadden made the comments this week, in advance of the G8/G20 meetings.  Others have taken the apology as a sign that Fadden has been reckless and that he may well be  - or ought to be - replaced very soon.

Two things:

1.  In the context of the week’s events, an apology and retraction would be absolutely necessary if only to save the Prime Minister’s face with foreign leaders.  But no one should take that official retraction for anything other than that.  Canada plays in the big leagues and Fadden is too experienced a public servant to make comments that are as off-the-wall as the apology might suggest. 

Fadden’s comments may alarm the uninformed  - and there are evidently plenty of those out there - but for anyone even passingly familiar with CSIS publicly available intelligence assessments there is no surprise in anything Fadden said. China has long been mounting a campaign of economic and political espionage around the globe.  The country’s aggressive moves into the energy sector is well known.  The two things together suggest a need for wariness, if not increased vigilance.

Incidentally, you can include in the ill-informed list none other than Brian Mulroney’s former chief of staff, Norman Spector. The facts are at cbc.ca.

2.  Around these parts, no one should be surprised either at the Chinese presence  or the potential naiveté of some provincial administrations. 

In 2004, the Williams administration signed a memorandum of understanding for the potential development of the Lower Churchill. 

The company – Sino-Energy – was a consortium of companies that included a state-owned Chinese corporation that has been involved in questionable arms shipments.  The memorandum of understanding gave Sino-Energy complete access to NALCOR information, including details of the interconnection between Churchill Falls and the rest of the North American energy grid.

Bond Papers discussed the MOU issue - including the national security implications – in a 2005 post. No one has followed up on the story since Jeff Ducharme started it. 

The Williams administration might not be on CSIS’ watch list  - they might; China might not be the only foreign country of concern either - but that doesn’t mean they been known to make some amateurish shag-ups when it comes to signing secret deals like that memorandum of understanding with questionable foreign companies.

-srbp-

Public money in inflatable shelter company now hits $4 million in four years

With a dose of $249,978 research money from the provincial government’s research and development corporation, Dynamic Air Shelters has now received about $4.0 million in public cash since 2006.

The federal government dropped $300,000 on the company on Monday.

That was on top of nearly $3.5 million the company had received between 2006 and earlier this week.  Most the cash has come within the past 18 months.

Here’s how the official news release described the most recent cash infusion:

Dynamic Air Shelters Limited is a world leader in inflatable blast shelters. Dynamic has the lead in this market and must maintain it by demonstrating constant improvement and validating the improvement through rigorous and controlled testing. The goal of this R&D project is to prove the performance of a production-model prototype of a fully upgraded blast shelter system that includes components and assemblies not yet tested. Expanding the blast resistant market and repelling competition is the most critically important feature of this product development. The RDC’s investment is $249,978 of a total project cost in excess of $1 million.

Dynamic Air Shelters received the largest single batch of funding in the most recent announcement.

-srbp-

Rowe book due this fall. Why?

Danny Williams’ former personal envoy to Hy’s tossed out a few bon mots to those listening to the province’s Open Line show on a sunny Wednesday.

Someone else picked up on the rest of the chat but your humble e-scribbler chuckled at this bit:

There were a number of excerpts from the work in progress  that are now being compiled into a full length book.

Rowe thought he had something from his short stint in Ottawa that was worth putting to paper. It was a short time (six months), if memory serves, but Rowe apparently had great insights to offer.

So great were the insights that he quit his stint as a columnist at the Telegram to write the book.   Rowe claimed that writing a column every week for the largest circulation daily in the province would hinder his writing ability. Your humble e-scribbler had a great larf at that idea back when Rowe forecast his magnum opus was in the works.

So weighty were the burdens of a weekly column that Rowe took to writing a weekly column for the Spindy which would become the book. And of course, collectors of great local literature will recall Billy once edited a collection of his old Telegram columns together into a book as well.  Column-writing does indeed interfere with book-writing.

Don’t worry, folks.  This makes no more sense now that it did when Bill first penned his good-bye in the Telly.

And, as you may have noticed, those Indy columns were the works in progress now being compiled into a full-length book, not unlike the 1980s vintage compilation which also wound up in a full-length book. 

Just go with this for a second.

A full-length book would be in contrast to a half-length book or a three-quarter length one. 

Just take a book off the nearest bookshelf and see how many pages it is.  Now randomly pick another one – any book, any shelf – and preferably not from the same series or encyclopaedia.  Note that the number of pages is different from one to the other.  Pick another.  Same thing?

That’s because “book” is not a standard unit of measure.  There can be no full-length book since, by definition, every book is “book” length.

Yes, folks, Bill is a fountain of these sorts of idiotic remarks.

But anyway…

By now, those of you who haven’t clicked off to the old post from Bill’s last column at the Telly might be wondering how long this book  - covering a mere six months of time, don’t forget – has taken to cobble together.

Rowe started the Ottawa gig in 2004 and quit in the winter of 2005. Bill’s last column for the Telegram was in October 2007.  Presumably he was writing it then or had pulled together some bits and pieces to start work.

If this book appears in the fall of 2010, then we are talking six years from the time he started the gig, five and a half years or so from the time he quit the job and three years from the time he quit the Telly.

Even if we allow Billy boy finished bashing out the manuscript in late 2009, we are still talking two full years to document his recollections of events that took no more than six months to experience in real time.

And that’s allowing that he had three or four of the episodes published in the old Spindy.

So what’s so special about this fall for a book covering events that are already rapidly receding into the mists of time?

-srbp-

Government of Newfoundland and Labrador Hiring Test (Communications Director)

The provincial government is looking for a few new communications directors.

Standards are high.  Not everyone can do the job.

The public service commission is under such pressure to find enough people to meet the stringent criteria set down by the Premier’s Office that they’ve had to simplify the qualifying exam.

Gone is the intensive two stage examine, including a written test, before the list was passed to the Eighth for selection.

According to the latest internal e-mail circulated last week – and obtained by your humble e-scribbler – public service commission examiners are to place two objects in front of the candidate.  They are not allowed to say anything. They must merely observe what the candidate does.

See if you can figure out how to pass the test.

Object 1:

Object 2:

-srbp- 

The Fragile Economy confirmed

BMO Capital Markets lays out the scope of the problem:

Newfoundland & Labrador [sic] saw a sharp 10.2% real GDP contraction in 2009, the worst performance in Canada. However, improvement in the mining sector and a reversal of some temporary factors will drive 4% growth in 2010 and solid 2.8% growth in 2011.

Problem? sez you, wiping the purple freshie from your lips. 

Growth returns. 

Here’s the problem:

However, the biggest economic driver in the province in the next two years will be construction activity. Government infrastructure spending will total about $1 bln in FY2010/11, helping boost total
capital spending an expected 23% in 2010. Provincial government infrastructure spending will amount to more than $5 bln over the next several years, keeping the economic fuel burning into 2011. At more than 3% of GDP, the Province’s infrastructure program is among
the largest in Canada relative to the size of the economy.

It is definitely not good when the public sector is driving the economy to such a degree.

And as for all the rosiness in BMO’s outlook. 

Well, let’s just say they obviously haven’t done any detailed analysis of the local economy especially if they think the recent population growth is driven by anything other than migrant labourers returning home from other parts of the country.

-srbp-

 

-srbp-

The language of Shakespeare

On the one hand, you have the regular performances of Julius Caesar at Cupids, site of the of early 17th century English colony.

There is a tide in the affairs of men
Which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.

And on the other hand, you would scarcely recognise the language of Shakespeare some four centuries on, as it is spoken in the House of Assembly:

Staff members at the school say that the faces of the children light up as they eagerly access the food items each morning.

Yes, that’s what we all long to do with food:  access it.

-srbp-

Brazil to expand oil production

From UPI:

RIO DE JANEIRO, June 22 (UPI) -- Brazil will spend $224 billion in five years on doubling its capacity for oil production and export despite cautious business optimism on the future global outlook for crude prices.

State-run Petrobras oil giant unveiled the spending plans as Chief Executive Officer Sergio Gabrielli set out the company's strategy to build capacity in the run-up to 2020, when Brazil will have doubled its production to 5.4 million barrels a day from 2.7 million barrels a day at present.

[more]

Anti-Rubinesque Update:  Peak oil, Schmeak Oil:

But crude oil itself has already peaked – at least five times since 1950, Prof. Boyce says – without beginning to approach the demise of oil anticipated by peak oil theory’s famous Bell curve. Indeed, crude oil reserves have doubled roughly every 15 years since 1850 and the world now has more proven reserves than it has ever had in the ensuing 150 years.

-srbp-

A Crown corporation by any other name

A company that has received almost $3.5 million in federal and provincial government money since 2006 is getting another $300,000 from the federal government to support its production.

Dynamic Air Shelters will receive another $300,000 for “research, and development, engineering and marketing initiatives.”

That’s in addition to the $575,000 the company has received over the past two years for research from the federal government.

Since 2008, the company has received more that $2.0 million in federal and provincial government money to support its business operations.

A Crown corporation by any other name would not  be sucking so much public money.

-srbp-

Today in history

June 22, 1990.

The Meech Lake Accord died.

In Manitoba, Elijah Harper refused to give the consent needed to bring the Accord to the floor of the legislature for debate.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, and after a last-minute effort at further manipulation by the Mulroney administration in Ottawa, Clyde Wells spoke at length in the House of Assembly before adjourning debate on the Accord.

Some predicted the country would fall apart.

It didn’t.

The finger pointing continues to this day, as Deborah Coyne concluded her memoir of the affair: Roll of the dice.  Brian Mulroney’s 2007 memoir is full of vitriol and a unhealthy dose of misrepresentation about the Accord debate.

Jean-Francois Lisee used exactly the same sort of fabrications as Mulroney to begin his blog series on the 20th anniversary of the Accord’s demise. Then again, the premise of the Accord was a fabrication, a falsehood, a blatant lie so it’s really not all that surprisingly that some of its proponents still rely on falsehood to argue for their case.

Meanwhile, in another corner of the universe, Gil Remillard, Quebec’s intergovernmental affairs minister at the time thinks:

<<L'entente du lac Meech aura servi à préparer le terrain et 20 ans après, on se rend compte que maintenant, nous faisons beaucoup de choses comme on voulait que ça soit fait lorsqu'on a discuté de Meech.>>

For the most part, though, only a few people in the country have even noticed the anniversary slip by.

-srbp-

Gulf #oilspill economic impact not what it seems

Crude is currently trading eight percent below where it was the day the BP rig in the Gulf of Mexico blew up.

CBC quotes a TD economist as saying that:

“It probably won't have a huge impact [on global oil production]. Deepwater drilling accounts for about seven per cent of global output right now.”

But the same online piece notes that Gulf of Mexico production accounts for 30% of American domestic output.

Now if there should happen to be a complete moratorium on new drilling and exploration in deep water as a result of the BP disaster, that could have interesting repercussions.  All those rigs currently being used in the southern US will be available for renewed exploration efforts in other parts of the world.  Like say offshore Brazil or offshore Newfoundland.

And hey, notice that the CBC article refers to tougher regulation.  That doesn’t mean something like a ban;  it just means Americans will start applying the same sorts of regulation that other countries take for granted and where exploration and production is going on as always.

-srbp-

Weekly Traffic Drivers, June 14-18

1. Sun News?  Ya gotta be kidding
2. Telling quotes:  Lower Churchill version 
3. Eventually the other guys will lose (Newfoundland and Labrador political culture)
4. Roger Fitzgerald’s bias (The Speaker of the House of Assembly is biased)
5. NB Connies argue over pork
6. We thought *you* had jobs for *us* – Russian version
7. Opportunity for comment – Hebron project
8. The Le Petomane School of Government (House of Assembly legislative agenda)
9. One for Chuck (Takogo kak Putin)
10. The World of the Psychic Economic Forecaster (crude oil price forecasts)

-srbp-

Weather is here…Russian junket version

1. What a total waste of time!  What politician,  any time in the history of human civilization ever went on a lovely trip to a foreign land entirely at taxpayers’ expense and came back proclaiming that the junket was anything but “productive”?

2.  The St. Petersburg economic forum was about attracting investment to Russia.  Is the Lower Churchill underwater line now going to run to Murmansk, he asked facetiously?

3. Dear Ladies and Gentlemen of Facebook… As for anyone being invited, the SPIEF organizers extended the exclusive invitation to everyone on Facebook.  Find any mention of Canada – let alone Newfoundland and Labrador – on the official Twitter feed for SPIEF.

4.  The event ends tomorrow.  Wasn’t the release announcing the glorious events of the trip a wee bit premature?  Don’t anybody mention quotas of happy news.

-srbp-

International Can Opening: Gold hits new record

Gold is up again  - a record US$1,248 an ounce - based on economic problems in Europe and the United States.

Oh yeah.

Bring on the recovery baby.

-srbp-

The World of the Psychic Economic Forecaster

On the one hand Jeff Rubin is in St. John’s telling audience that oil will be back in triple digit pricing within six months and will stay there. It’s a line from his book, basically.

The recovery presumably is underway and is solid.

On the other hand, in another part of the globe someone notices that a key index of shipping tonnage is currently at about 2,784 compared to 11,793 points  - a record high – that it hit just before oil prices hung in the triple digits for a short period in 2008.

Followed of course by a massive collapse.

Jeff says oil prices caused the collapse.

Okay.

Sure.

And that runny nose you have?

It caused your cold.

Chest pains?

Caused your heart attack.

Jeff’s forecast and the indicators don’t quite seem to fit together, do they?

-srbp-

Opportunity for comment – Hebron project

From the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board:

“The public is invited to comment on the draft Comprehensive Study Report (CSR) for the Hebron Development Project being proposed by ExxonMobil Canada Properties on behalf of the Hebron Project Proponents: Chevron Canada Limited, Petro-Canada Hebron Partnership, Statoil Canada Ltd., and Nalcor Energy – Oil and Gas Inc.

The Hebron Project will include activities associated with installation, drilling and production, maintenance, and decommissioning of a concrete gravity-based structure (GBS) at the Hebron field, northeast Grand Banks. The Hebron Project will involve construction activities at two locations, the Hebron field and the Bull Arm marine facilities in Bull Arm, Trinity Bay. Construction activities are scheduled to commence in 2012, with petroleum production to begin in 2016 or 2017.

Before any petroleum-related activity can be undertaken in the Newfoundland & Labrador Offshore Area, a detailed and location-specific Environmental Assessment (EA) must be submitted to the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (C-NLOPB). In addition, this project is subject to the federal environmental assessment process pursuant to the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act. The CEA Act requirements indicate this environmental assessment must be reviewed using the comprehensive study process as the project involves the proposed construction or installation of a facility for the production of oil or gas, if the facility is located offshore.

Pursuant to Section 21(1) of the CEA Act, the C-NLOPB, on behalf of the responsible authorities for the federal environmental assessment of the project (C-NLOPB, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Transport Canada, Environment Canada and Industry Canada), is inviting the public to comment on the proposed draft CSR. The draft CSR was completed pursuant to the CEA Act and the Scoping Document prepared by the C-NLOPB and the other responsible authorities.

The Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency will provide an opportunity for public comment on the final CSR at a later date.

Comments must be received by the C-NLOPB no later than Wednesday August 11, 2010. Interested persons may submit their comments in the official language of their choice to information@cnlopb.nl.ca or to the following address:”

Public Comments – Hebron Development Project

Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board

5^th Floor, TD Place

140 Water St., St. John’s, NL

A1C 6H6

(709) 778-1400

NB Connies argue over pork

New Brunswick Conservative member of parliament Greg Thompson – who isn’t planning on running for re-election – says that Conservative cabinet minister Keith Ashfield is sitting on pork announcements for New Brunswick in an effort to influence the provincial election in September.

Canwest is reporting:

"(Ashfield) stated very clearly, with his own lips to me, 'We're not going to be carrying the province on our backs to the next election.' And, of course, I took exception to that and I'm just wondering who he's attempting to punish," said Thompson, who says he is not running in the next federal election.

Thompson said he suspects Ashfield is defending his chief of staff Fred Nott, who suggested in an e-mail to hold off on approving funding in Thompson's riding until after Sept. 27, the date of the provincial election.

Hmmm.

A fight within the Conservative party?

A family feud as it were.

Sounds vaguely familiar.

Come to think of it, New Brunswick provincial Conservative leader David Alward might want to be careful about having what UNB political scientist David Desserud called “some of that Danny Williams magic” rub off.  Desserud made the comment after Alward took a taxpayer funded partisan campaign hop across to see the Old Man recently. 

Alward might well have been thinking how nice it would be to get the rumoured version of the Danny Williams effect.  But truth be told, the the real Danny Williams Effect can be a bit more like something you pick up on a planet in Star Trek: The Original Series.  You know:  the stuff that makes your hands all itchy and then Sulu comes at you with an epee right before some whack-job belts out another chorus of ‘I’ll take you home again Kathleen.”

Maybe poor Dave got the actual Danny political mojo instead of what he hoped for.

And then: poof!

Instant family feud.

Ouch.

That has got to hurt.

-srbp-

We thought *you* had jobs for *us* - Russian version

The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum is about encouraging foreigners to invest in Russian development.

The focus of this year's forum will be Russia's modernization, which is captured in its slogan, "Laying the foundation for the future." There will be a special emphasis on making deals with energy and high-tech companies, as well as large financial corporations, Presidential Aide Arkady Dvorkovich said during a news briefing at RIA Novosti on June 15.

So why exactly is a Canadian politician desperately looking for investment in his own province headed all the way to the former Russian capital for a conference about expanding the Russian economy?

Good question, especially considering he is just another one of the thousands headed there as attendees.

Not a keynote speaker.

Not an organizer.

Just another nametag in the room.

The plan is to sign more agreements and memoranda with foreign partners at this year's forum than ever before, Mr. Dvorkovich said.

"We expect that you won't be able to count the signed investment agreements on even two hands," he said, adding that European investors plan to announce a "significant expansion" of investment in Russia.

Something says someone got confused about which St. Petersburg the forum was in.

This one isn’t conveniently close to home.

-srbp-

Related:

• Takogo, kak Danny
• Takogo, kak Hickey

Sun News? Ya gotta be kidding

Think of it this way:

Less news.

More boobs.

-srbp-