Show him your love…this Sunday buy a book

What with all the fuss this week about Danny friggin’ off on a plane rather than show up for a love in with his Fan Club, your humble e-scribbler got a Dunderdaleish shock when this e-mail showed up in ye olde in-box:

What better way to show how much you love him – compared to those ungrateful Tories – than to show up and plunk down some hard cash so you can have his big mug on your coffee table.

Dunno if Danny has a piece of this book action or if he’s just helping the boys out with the marketing.

Heck, it isn’t clear to anyone if the Old Man is even gonna show up for that matter.  After all, this ad may well have been drawn up before he took his latest trademark hissy-fit. What an ironic turn of events as nothing shows Danny’s nature and style than the contemptuous “pffft” he threw at his former party-mates last week.

Even if he isn’t gonna be there, show up and chat with Paul Daly and award-winning writer Russell Wangersky.  You might even want to buy the book.

And if you are so inclined, pick up Bill Rowe’s tome as well.  Tons of copies of the thing are destined for the remainder bins if you don’t.

Better idea:  bundle them up and send them off to the Tokyo electric company.  They could use the fodder to help bury that troublesome reactor.

Anyway.

Sunday.

Russell and Paul signing their books at Chapters.

Support two local artists.

See you there!

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No Equalization offsets for Quebec

The new offshore resource agreement between the federal government and Quebec is a significant step toward developing oil and natural gas in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.

As with the similar situation between Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador, another major step will be settling the interprovincial water boundary between Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador.

What’s most interesting about the Laurentide Accord, though is the fact that it is modelled, generally, on the Atlantic Accord (1985) between Newfoundland and Labrador and the federal government or the similar Nova Scotia offshore accord.

The Quebec agreement doesn’t include a specific joint management board.  Instead, it describes a transitional period in which major decisions will be shared between the two governments. 

That period of equal management might actually last a long time. Section 4.1 of the agreement commits the governments to table legislation on joint management.  But that must happen only two years after someone finds a commercially viable discovery. In the meantime, everything will be run by a both governments equally.

That’s a pretty sharp contrast to Newfoundland and Labrador where the provincial government has significant control over offshore resources.

There’s also a sharp contrast on revenue sharing.  While both the Atlantic and Laurentide Accords give the provincial governments 100% of revenues from offshore resource development, Quebec won’t be getting any extra payments to offset drops in Equalization. in both Atlantic provinces, the provincial government set and collected all offshore revenues and in addition got 12 to 13 years of federal transfers to replace declines in Equalization.

If Quebec winds up with huge oil and gas money flowing in, you can watch its Equalization entitlements drop like the proverbial stone. That’s big news for the federal government. Quebec collects more in Equalization transfer from Ottawa than all the other provinces combined. Cut that out entirely or even cut it down significantly and the federal government will wind up with billions of extra cash in very short order.

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Dunderdale’s leadership woes deepen

Bad enough that Danny Williams is pissed at Kathy Dunderdale.

It’s worse now that everyone knows it.

Things took a slightly worse turn Thursday when Dunderdale faced a scrum of reporters all interested in this problem she’s having with her patron. She tried to put a brave face on it, right down to expressing her shock that he had decided to jet off to somewhere else rather than attend.

The story’s even turned up in the Globe and Mail. 

That would be another downside to the whole thing, incidentally.

But that’s not the end of it.

Dunderdale felt compelled to assure the universe that Danny Williams – the fellow who frigged off last December in a manner Dunderdale herself said was shocking – could rest assured that he had “the full support and loyalty of caucus, cabinet and the party.”

What party leader of any consequence would pledge her unflinching fealty to the guy who used to have her job?

Next thing you know she’ll admit she really is taking orders from him and that he is now able to fulfill a promise he made long ago:  to be premier but not take a salary from the government for doing the job.

Kathy Dunderdale has serious political problems that her Stacy and Clinton make-over won’t fix.

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Feds, Quebec announce joint deal on offshore resources

Natural Resources Canada news release:

“The Honourable Christian Paradis, Minister of Natural Resources, and Nathalie Normandeau, Quebec Deputy Premier, Minister of Natural Resources and Wildlife and Minister responsible for the Northern Plan, today announced that the Governments of Canada and Quebec have reached an important accord on the development of oil and gas resources in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.

"This is an important day that is the result of a great deal of hard work," said Minister Paradis. "Under a co-management framework, Quebec will derive significant financial benefits from resource-related activities. This accord is a concrete example of the two Governments collaborating to create jobs, energy security and economic opportunity in resource communities in the regions of Quebec and Canada. The Government of Canada will continue to work with Quebec to ensure the responsible and sustainable development of our natural resources."

"This is an historic day for Quebec. After more than 12 years — and thanks to the tremendous work of our two governments — we are very proud to announce that the Province of Quebec has an agreement that will give us 100 percent of the revenues from the development of our oil and gas in the Gulf. It's truly a great day for Quebec," said Minister Normandeau.

The Quebec government is undertaking a strategic environmental evaluation before allowing the development of oil and gas in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. The results of this evaluation will be known in 2012.

Since 2006, the Governments of Canada and Quebec have achieved several milestone collaborations. The accord is a key element in the continuation of that work.

The accord will be implemented by means of mirror legislation that will be tabled by the federal and provincial governments before the Parliament of Canada and the National Assembly of Quebec. The accord will be implemented in steps, and rigorous environmental assessments will be conducted before any oil and gas development begins.”

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Hell hath no fury …

Like the Old Man when he’s pissed off.

Reporters caught up to former Premier Danny Williams at St. John’s airport on Wednesday.  Not surprisingly they asked him about a report this week he won’t be attending a tribute dinner the party planned to throw for him during its leadership convention.

You’ll find the CBC version at about the 10:00 mark in the Here and Now broadcast.

Now usually, the Old Man would insist that nothing could be further from the truth whenever he wanted to deny something, even when the story was accurate.

In this case, there answer is conspicuously different. Glenn Deir asks Danny about the suggestion that there is some kind of rift between him and his successor.

“Not interested in getting into that”.

“No Comment”.

And reference to a tribute that will happen at some point in the undetermined future.

Put that together with the smirk on his face and you can pretty much guess that the Old Man is mightily fried with Kathy Dunderdale about something.  One version has it that Danny didn’t think Dunderdale and her crew had done enough to defend his former communications director in the controversy over her appointment to the offshore regulatory board.

If that’s the case, then Kath may well have some serious political cracks inside her caucus.  She doesn’t hold her current position by virtue of anything other than someone else’s good graces.  More than a few members of her caucus would likely take the view  - if pushed - that they owe their seats to the Old Man not to Kathy.

She’s gotta be feeling a little uneasy. There’s an implication to his tone, his smirk and reference that reporters should ask Dunderdale about their relationship.

If nothing else, his decision to jet off to Florida or wherever he’s gone instead of handing the reins formally to Dunderdale robs her of any symbolic continuity, any trace of his legacy. Instead, there will be some kind of tribute to Danny – with the focus solely on him, obviously – at some time in the future.

Imagine trying to get yourself sorted out for an election campaign while your predecessor and his pals are pissed off at you behind the scenes.  On top of everything else she’s facing, Kathy probably never expected she’d have to face Danny chucking hand grenades at her.

This is going to be one interesting political year and it’s a long way from over.

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Believing things that aren’t true

Cynthia Downey, ace provincial Conservative cheerleader, declares her unflinching support for the plan to double electricity rates in the province in a recent letter to the Telegram:

I, for one, am glad to have a government with a good plan for developing the hydroelectric power and making it profitable for us by selling it in the northeastern U.S.

Unfortunately for Cynth, that’s not true.

Nalcor vice president Derrick Sturge said recently that Muskrat falls power may never go to the United States.  Nalcor isn’t counting on the United States market.

There’s good reason, too.  Right now the Americans can pump out so much cheap electricity that they are selling it into New Brunswick.  And that’s pretty much the forecast for the near future, at least out to the time Muskrat Falls will start pumping.

It doesn’t get any better, at least for Cynthia Downey.

She recites reason after reason for backing the deal but every one of her reasons is as wrong as that one about selling power to the United States.

She even trots out the old chestnut about shutting down Holyrood.

You’d think that a person who’d already been sucked in by a load of malarkey once before would learn to spot it again.

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Clean drinking water is a sign of progress

You know it is a good thing when two departments can join forces to issue a single news release praising a decade of clean drinking water training courses for municipal employees.

For those who have been hearing clean drinking water in the news lately, just recall a post on significant digits your humble e-scribbler wrote in December 2009.  Not much has changed in the past year and a bit.

Bravo for the workshop people.

Good on them for working hard to make things better.

But someone needs to hold feet to some fire to get action in a “have” province where something like 30% of communities operate routinely under boil water orders.

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Lies, damn lies and throne speeches

One of the glorious piles of foolishness you will see again in Monday’s provincial throne speech is the idea that no provincial or federal government before this current provincial one paid any attention to public sector capital spending.

For too many years, for want of proper infrastructure, our province languished while other regions of the country prospered.

It’s foolishness because every government delivered capital spending, even in the leanest of times.

Take a look at this table.  It shows public sector capital spending in the province from 1991 to 2011.  That’s federal and provincial spending combined and it includes construction as well as equipment.  The figures are compiled by the Statistics division of the provincial finance department using Statistics Canada figures.

The section marked Red I basically reflects provincial spending during the early 1990s recession combined with what appears to be any federal money that went into Hibernia.  That would account for the peak in 1995 and the drop off in the last year of the project before the GBS tow-out and first oil in 1997.

Blue II represents the combined federal and provincial Conservatives’ “stimulus” spending.

Red III  is a bit of an anomaly but since it covers both a federal and provincial election period, odds are good that there is a connection.  Anyone who can offer a reasonable explanation is welcome to chime in on that one.

What’s curious is that the first three years of the current provincial Conservative administration is roughly the same as that Red II period in terms of total capital spending.  It’s not because the provincial government was flat broke;  it wasn’t.

To the contrary, the provincial government had cash and announced a fair dollop of spending in the run-up to the 2007 election.  What seems to be reflected in this diagram is that a great deal of the capital works announced by the provincial Tories around the 2007 election just didn’t happen until two to four years later.

It’s one of those curious things but the current crowd what is ruling over us seem to have a chronic problem delivering their capital works projects.  They can announce them alright, but finishing the delivery seems to be a problem.

Oh.

And there is no coincidence that capex is peaking in 2011, a definite provincial and likely federal election year.

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Fried Clyde dumps Danny’s fish policy

Remember earlier in the month when fisheries minister Clyde Jackman abandoned the fisheries reform process?

Let’s just take a jump back to something that stood out from his newser at the time:

What Jackman did mention one too many times for comfort was the idea that some people think time will take care of the whole thing.  In other words, in an industry dominated by people rapidly approaching retirement, most of the people who would be “restructured” will simply leave the industry on their own if nothing else happens. He also talked about signs that prices might be climbing again soon, perhaps another clue as to what some in the provincial government might be hoping for.

No surprise, then, that Jackman is on the front page of the Telegram on Tuesday with this to say:

“…how can I justify, going forward looking for $190 million dollars, to justify a 30 per cent reduction (in harvesting), when the report clearly says that if you leave it alone it will restructure to an even greater degree than the ask that the FFAW put forward?”

How indeed, except that there is a difference in sheer human cost between an organized series of cuts and the wholesale slaughter that may well leave nothing much in the fishery to restructure when it is all over. You can see the same thread running through the front end of the letter Jackman sent to the processors and the union representing fish-plant workers and fishermen, now called “harvesters” in polite circles.

Perhaps the most interesting thing about Jackman’s letter is that he winds up abandoning the position he and his colleagues championed for seven years. Gone is taxpayer-funded bailouts and buyouts.  In two successive federal elections, Jackman and his colleagues tried to get commitment after federal commitment to doing just that.

What’s even more bizarre  - some might say disingenuous - about the Dunderdale’s government’s supposed concern for public spending is that it doesn’t apply to things like Muskrat Falls. 

It’s also a bizarre strategy to take in an election year especially when there are so many rural seats the Tories currently hold but where their grip might be weakening a bit.

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Selling cheap power to Quebec

The always reliable labradore has unearthed some fascinating information about a power deal between Nalcor and Hydro-Quebec.

Bottom line:

• Nalcor took forever to publicly announce the deal, and
• They are selling power into Quebec for about 20%
• of what Labrador and Newfoundland customers are paying.

Not bad, eh?

They even get a volume discount, something that will not be available to the residential consumers who will be bearing the full cost of Muskrat Falls in the future just so Nalcor can sell more cheap power to customers outside the province.

That’s the only way the “economics” of the current proposal make any sense to the people behind the scheme.

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Dunderdale government to cure arthritis

From the Throne Speech:

As My Government follows through in implementing its provincial wellness plan and its healthy aging strategy, it is also turning its attention to chronic diseases. Arthritis, cancer, chronic pain, diabetes, heart disease, kidney disease, lung disease – unlike many acute illnesses that can be treated and cured – are chronic conditions which can remain with people for the rest of their lives. My Government will move forward this year to release a new Chronic Disease Management Strategy which will include a comprehensive and collaborative approach to chronic disease prevention and management throughout the province.

Chronic disease prevention.

Arthritis listed first.

As someone with arthritis, your humble e-scribbler is not going to hang around waiting for them to deliver on that one.  Hint: no one knows what causes arthritis. But if they can improve the pathetic arthritis support delivered via Eastern Health’s bureaucratic monstrosity, then more power to ‘em.

Gotta say too, now that Hisself isn’t writing the speeches any more, they are much better. One more mangled Kennedy quote and people were going to start flinging themselves under busses voluntarily.

But this speech has some decent writing including nice turns of phrase and some great structuring.

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New Dawn up for vote yet again

Apparently, the Matshishkapeu Accord will be back for the Innu people of Labrador to vote on.

This must be the final, final, final version of the final agreement announced two and a half years ago as being the final agreement.

Note, though, that all the feds have announced on Monday was a financial deal.  The rest of the land claim is still up in the air.

Just sayin’, in case anyone figured this was a done deal.

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Muskrat Falls power may never go to New England: Nalcor

From Nalcor vice president Derrick Sturge:

"Whether all of the energy ever flows to the New England market - who knows? A significant portion of that (40 per cent) may never hit New England. It may end up in Prince Edward Island or New Brunswick. But the key is that there is the option to flow to the (New England) market."

And then he said the thing is going up with or without a federal loan guarantee.

Newfoundlanders should keep an eye on their wallets with this guy Sturge and his buddies around.

They have no markets for the power outside the province.

That’s why Sturge uses all the conditional language like “may”.  It may go there;  then again, it may not.

Count on the “not’ given that the front end of the story makes it plain that Nalcor and Emera couldn’t actually settle on a price.  Muskrat Falls power was just too expensive.

So in exchange for Emera partnering on a line to Nova Scotia they’ll get free power for 35 years.

Talk about the price is right.

Free is always the right price, except if you are Nalcor customers in this province.  For you guys, Nalcor will be jacking up Newfoundland electricity rates and adding another five billion or so to the public debt.

And for what?

Well, since Nalcor’s own figures show there is no demand on the island that couldn’t be met other ways besides Muskrat, the answer to that question remains as much a mystery as why Kathy Dunderdale threw Shawn Skinner under a political bus last week with the Matthews’ debacle.

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Libya 1986 - OP El Dorado Canyon

This is a short video recounting the American air strike against Libya in 1986. 

The video mentions SA-3 Goa and SA-5 Gammon anti-aircraft missiles.  Together with the much older SA-2 Guideline, they still formed the backbone of Libyan air defence.

Well, that is until the past 48 hours.

Taking out Libyan air defences was the first phase of coalition military action against Muammar Gaddafi’s forces.  Aircraft and cruise missiles reportedly struck anti-aircraft missile sites and airfields.

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High cholesterol Traffic: Now with extra pork!

From a pork-barrel almost appointment to a minister welcoming federal pork that never comes, this week the most popular posts are about Conservatives and patronage.

1. Matthews bails on board position
2. Operation Ridiculous
3. Head-scratching and nose-pulling in latest twist in Matthews appointment debacle
4. Matthews appointment to offshore kept secret until leak
5. Anyone seen John Hickey?
6. The disease spreads
7. Inadvertent media humour
8. Good Tory?  End of Story
9. No more give-aways indeed:  provincial government considering cash breaks for major oil companies
10. Pushback in New England on hydro lines

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Cleary to unquit for NDP again?

Ryan Cleary, former newspaper editor, former talk show host and former NDP candidate is considering another run at federal politics six months, after he packed it in as the New Democratic Party candidate in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl.

Cleary carried the orange banner in the 2008 federal election, lost that one, then took up a job hosting a late night talk show.  Although the gab-fest was well suited to his talkative style, Cleary quit that gig to spend more time with his family and then sought the NDP nomination again.

Last October he gave that up to go back to journalism and now he is apparently considering an offer from the NDP to run again for them in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl.

Talk about on-again, off-again.

A campaign involving Cleary, Liberal incumbent Siobhan Coady and reputed Tory heavyweight Loyola Sullivan could turn out to be an interesting race.  Cleary has the potential to split up the nationalist Conservative vote especially among local Conservatives who are still can’t get beyond the whole demon Harper thing. 

In 2008, Danny Williams’ gang tried to drive the Tories to Coady.  Four prominent members of his caucus, including Kathy Dunderdale and Paul Oram, went door-to-door for Coady.  It didn’t work.  The local Blue Crew that did turn out opted for Cleary, instead.

Cleary also might not be able to count on quit so much spill-over help from Jack Harris in St. John’s East.  The darling of the East End will be in a tighter race of his own against Jerry Byrne. 

As a result, Jack might not be able to give any serious help to the fellow some will soon be affectionately referring to as Yo-Yo Maw.

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The disease spreads

Scott Reid’s dissection of national politics could equally be a commentary on politics in Newfoundland and Labrador since 2003.

Here’s a taste:

We can begin with a Parliamentary Press Gallery that, increasingly, is dazzled by political tactics, bored by substance and disinterested in the awkward obligation of challenging authority. With too few exceptions — and one fewer with the sad passing of the Star's Jim Travers — reporters seem more interested in sounding like in-the-know party strategists than detached observers.

It is they, in particular, who tell us repeatedly that "no one cares." And all too frequently, there is little, if any, suggestion that part of the media's function is to serve as a check on abuse of authority. Put another way, if Woodward and Bernstein had followed the same method we sometimes witness in Ottawa, they would surely have shrugged off Deep Throat, explaining that no one cares about such a technical, complicated story and that, in any event, Nixon's triumph over McGovern rendered the matter moot.

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Provincial government wakes up on EU trade

Almost two years after your humble e-scribbler pointed out the blatant stupidity of the provincial government’s decision to boycott free trade talks, the provincial government is now sorting itself out.

The provincial government trade gang will switch from observers to participants at the upcoming trade talks between Canada and the European Union in April.

The old policy  - supported unquestioningly by the same people who have now turned 180 degrees – was stupid because it jeopardized the existing and future economic interests of the province and left local industry to being left out of a new lucrative market.

What’s worse, the old, stupid policy threatened to increase the dependence of the local economy on  on the American market. As a result, the provincial economy would become even more fragile than it had already grown as a result of seven years of backward economic policy by the provincial government.

It may have taken two years but the current crowd have finally figured it out.

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Inadvertent media humour

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Kelly wins in Corner Brook

Gary Kelly won the by-election for Corner Brook City council polling 987 votes.  He topped a field of five candidates.

He ran a campaign with a significant presence in the social media and took to the streets of Corner Brook with his sign in hand, greeting pedestrians and waving to motorists. His effort was often the talk of the city throughout the campaign, and Wednesday evening the results proved its worth.

Expect to hear more about this guy in the future.

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Anyone seen John Hickey?

Our man in Menihek.

The Pavement Putin of the Permafrost.

Currently the Labrador affairs minister and reputedly wannabe Conservative candidate in the next federal election.

Well, he may not be seen anywhere other than the A&W in Goose Bay for breakfast but certainly no one has heard from him on a CBC story that the Department of National Defence isn’t interested in spending any more cash on sustaining the infrastructure at Goose Bay beyond what they need.

Funny that Hickey is so silent.  In 2006, for example he was adamant that the fine people of Goose Bay could count on the promises of his political pals in Ottawa.  Here’s what he said in the House of Assembly in April 2006:

Although there was some fearmongering [sic] going around the community and there were some moments there last week when people were not really sure, I want to commend the new Minister of National Defence, Minster Gordon O’Connor, for coming out publicly on Monday morning and reconfirming the commitment that he made to the people of Happy Valley-Goose Bay, that he made recently to Premier Williams in Ottawa, and the commitment that Prime Minister Harper made to our Province in a letter that he wrote to the Premier during the election. The commitment is there, Mr. Speaker, it is solid, 650 troops on the ground. We are going to see an army base there with  an extra 100 support troops for a UAV squadron. This is fantastic news, Mr. Speaker, for the Town of Happy Valley-Goose Bay and for the
District of Lake Melville.

Fantastic news of the glories to be delivered onto the fine people of the Big Land by John’s Big Friends.

Anything to the contrary was fear-mongering.

Five years later?

Fantastical nothingness.

In fact, the likelihood of the federal Conservatives delivering even the promise to promise something vaguely like they’ve been promising is so remote at this point that some of the local movers and shakers in Labrador are thinking about trying to press the federal Conservatives for the loan guarantee on Muskrat in lieu of the numerous lavish and thus far unfulfilled pledges to bring riches to Goose Bay via National Defence.

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Pushback in New England on hydro lines

Environmental concerns are causing problems for a proposed electricity transmission line that could help carry Labrador electricity into the United States.

The Northern Pass project will carry electricity from Quebec into New Hampshire and on to the rest of New England.

Some local residents in New Hampshire are concerned that the proposed route will damage the state’s tourism industry. 

John Harrington is a retired newspaper publisher.  He told North Country Public Radio:

“What’s being threatened is the only thing we really have left, which is tourism. All for the convenience of people far to the south. And we’re going to wind up with this huge scar right down through the narrowest and most fragile part of New Hampshire.”

Then there’s the question of whether or not big hydro is actually green. Only Vermont currently accepts hydroelectricity from large dams as renewable and green and therefore eligible to count in state-mandated energy calculations.  Most New England states require that a percentage of electricity in the state come from renewable, green energy sources.  Both the American federal and some state governments also give cash incentives to renewable energy projects.

In some states, debate is already raging about the implications of renewable energy policies.  In last fall’s gubernatorial campaign, incumbent Deval Patrick’s Republican challenger included support for big hydro as part of his campaign platform. 

In Connecticut, Northeast utilities senior vice-president James Robb told a conference last November that without big hydro, “ it will be very challenging to meet those goals” of increasing the use of renewable energy sources to 25% of generation by 2025.  Robb said that there are projects but many are uneconomical.

Still, the big hydro projects don’t meet existing guidelines.

The main concern regarding hydro is that the flooding resulting from dams causes leaves and other foliage to decompose, emitting methane, one of the worst greenhouse gases. The Canadian officials [at the November conference]  argued that the water in their provinces is so cold that the leaves don’t decompose.

“I’m struggling here in New England with how New England is going to meet its renewable requirements. Without Quebec and Newfoundland & Labrador, you will struggle to hit that,” said Ed Martin, president and CEO of Nalcor Energy, which is based in the hydro- and wind-rich Newfoundland & Labrador. “Hydro is part of the mix that has to happen if you are going to meet the goals in New England.”

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Operation Ridiculous

Usually when one is in a hole, it is a good idea to stop digging.

There may be exceptions to this rule,  but for most occasions,  when you can no longer see over the edge of the hole even on your tippee toes, best thing to do is lay the shovel down and start figuring out how to get out of the self-inflicted predicament.

If your friends are in a hole, then you can offer them a hand up out of the hole.  Under no circumstances, though, should you start shovelling dirt in on top of them.  Jumping in with them may be noble but it is never sensible and if you are in the hole, it is never wise to start pulling the shite back in around your own feet.

Evidently, someone forgot to explain this subtle bit of mystical political knowledge to Premier Kathy Dunderdale.

Instead,  Premier (pro tempore) Dunderdale got hold of the Danny and Liz playbook, a portion of which Liz decided to continue this week in her ongoing campaign to destroy whatever shreds of her own dignity she might have left.

Remember that claim about not knowing about the appointment?  Well, kiss that nose-puller goodbye when the evidence is unveiled.  Elizabeth Matthews told the Telegram that in fact she had a copy of the order in council the Liberals released on Tuesday.

The she tried to turn the whole thing into a process story:

The job of vice-chair of the CNLOPB requires approval from the federal government and Matthews said she was not “informed in any official capacity” that she had been named to the board.

So she knew, but not officially and therefore she didn’t know.

Or did she?

Liz Matthews may well turn out to be the political progeny not of Danny Williams but of Tom “TimeLord” Rideout.  Liz knew but didn’t know.  Back in 2007, Tom wanted to explain that the Green report recommendations on allowances would come into effect tomorrow but in his world, tomorrow meant six months in the future, not the day after this one.

How in the name of heavens can anyone not wilfully and pathologically blinded by Danny-envy be surprised that the Gang That Couldn’t Shoot Straight, the crowd that brought you a low rent version of Doctor Who  - Rideout, Hedderson and Marshall editions - and the Abitibi expropriation blunder couldn’t even handle a simple appointment to a board whether out of unfettered lust for patronage or a secret John-Turnerish promise to Danny?

Seriously.

Who is shocked by this?

Didn’t think so.

Unable to hide from the media any longer, the person who actually made the Elizabeth Matthews nomination made a few comments today.  The result was, well, let’s just say that when she frigs up Kathy Dunderdale does not settle for half measures. She laid her shovel down alrightee and then dragged in a backhoe just to really bury herself.

Before going any further, let us remember that the core point Dunderdale could have used was simple:  appointment’s not done yet.  We’ll let you know when and if it is made. That is the same line Matthews could have used and it is the one Shawn Skinner could have tried. 

There might have been a bit of a stink about patronage or potential pork-barrelling but it wouldn’t have been half as bad as day after day of the appointee and a senior minister saying things that they both ought to have known were bullshit and that could be shown to be bullshit fairly easily.

Think of it this way:  they did not impeach Clinton for a quickie in the closet with a young woman a fraction of his age.  They got him for insisting that he had not had sex with that woman and then engaging in some amateur lawyer bullshit about the definition of “is” in order to perpetuate the patently ridiculous denials.

So take a gander at the raw footage of Dunderdale talking to reporters. 

Making it up as she goes along 

Dunderdale claims there is a regulation requiring first a board appointment and then the second stage of a vice-chair nomination.  She then claims that a letter conveys the official appointment.

Dunderdale knows or ought to know this is preposterous.  There is no regulation governing the appointment.  The Atlantic Accord implementation acts simply state that the nominee for vice chair needs the support of both the federal and provincial governments.  If both governments agree on the nomination, a board appointment can follow in due course.  Both governments can even agree whether it will be a federal, provincial or joint appointment.

Take a look at the order in council.  It is clear that Matthews is appointed with effect from January 1 and that – in addition – cabinet put Matthews forward as a nominee for vice-chair subject to federal agreement.  There’s even a reference to negotiating the salary for the vice chair’s job.

Simply put, Dunderdale is wrong.  You have to be on the board if you are vice chair but you don’t have to be on the board before becoming vice chair.

Let’s go one step beyond.  If, as Dunderdale claims, she never intended Matthews to sit on the board in any capacity other than as vice-chair, the order in council would have been written to say that.  More likely, it would have followed the agreement and approved the appointment and salary as already agreed.

Dunderdale defends her nomination of Matthews because she believes the former Williams communications aide is a “strategic thinker” who is articulate.  Clearly the events of the past couple of days speak to the contrary impression.  Articulate strategic thinkers don’t usually default to easily disprovable crap as the first thought.

Dunderdale claims that the process is not secret, that it has to be straightforward and done in public.  The events as they unfolded and Dunderdale’s own account of how things were supposed to happen make her claims about welcoming debate patently false.

Had things unfolded as Dunderdale intended, no one would have learned of the appointment until after it was copper-fastened, to use a hideous Dunderism.  Michael Connors of NTV (or so it sounded like) made the point in a question that an appointment to the board announced in December would have sparked controversy.  Indeed, it would have.

As for welcoming the chance to defend Matthews, it is almost laughable that both Matthews and Dunderdale talked about their willingness to defend the appointment only after Matthews quit the process and therefore made such a defence unnecessary. 

People who genuinely believe they can win don’t quit.  It’s that simple.  Everything else is nonsense.

As for what really happened, the full story may never emerge.  It is possible, for example, that Dunderdale – like her patron and water rights – got caught in a rather amateurish effort to engineer something for Matthews.  Heck, maybe the same legal geniuses behind that fiasco and the expropriation cooked up this scheme with their less-than-perfect knowledge of the law and procedure.

Faced with a federal twin vice-chair who might well have wound up as the official replacement for Ruelokke, any other schemes about changing the board using Matthews may well have been scuttled.

Then again, the simple fact that Matthews blew her own feet off with her patently false claims on Friday, coupled with industry and political pushback made the appointment too stinky to survive the very debate Dunderdale supposedly welcomed. Dunderdale and Matthews can talk all the brave talk they want:  fact is they lost.

The whole Matthews mess is almost too embarrassingly ridiculous to believe. Had it not unfolded in front of our eyes, anyone could reasonably reject it as too incredible to be true.

[But the fact is] you just cannot make this stuff up.

All we can do is wait to see what Dunderdale does next.

[Updated:  corrected typos;  subhead clarified;  words added in square brackets to clarify sentence.]

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Related:

• “Introducing Premier Kathy Dunderdale”
• “Introducing Premier Dunderdale:  Patronage and the Public Tender Act”
• “Introducing Premier Dunderdale:  delusions”
• “A primer on the new Premier”
• And for those who missed it, this post carries on the tradition of “Chaos in Control”:  “Get Smart!  “Operation Ridiculous”,  Season 3 

Head-scratching and nose-pulling over latest twist in Matthews appointment debacle

A few of the people steadfastly supporting the provincial government’s pork-barrel attempt to get Elizabeth Matthews on the offshore regulatory board were left scratching their heads Tuesday evening. [changed verb tense]

Some are so perplexed trying to reconcile their stories with the facts that they are even calling for a public inquiry

The reason is simple.  Yet another aspect of the story they have been spreading is blowing away in the face of facts. 

The specific bit now boiling off faster than a Japanese reactors’ cooling water is the claim that Elizabeth Matthews didn’t know about her board appointment or that her appointment included a seat on the board, depending on how you interpret the comments. 

On Friday, Matthews responded to a Liberal opposition news release that noted she was appointed to the offshore board on December 21 with effect from January 1, 2011. CBC provincial affairs reporter David Cochrane tweeted a series of comments on this, including comments about Matthews:

(March 11)  “Where are you getting this from?  Feds tell me her appt isn’t finalized at all…I spoke to Matthews directly.  She says she is not on the board….EM says she has never been told of any appointment.  Do Libs have draft letter never sent?…Skinner says they nominated EM in January…”.

Cochrane put Matthews’ comments to Shawn Skinner in a scrum on Monday.  Skinner agreed that Matthews hadn’t been notified and that’s the story CBC ran with on Tuesday.  Skinner also mentioned that the appointment needed an order in council but insisted that Matthews didn’t know about the appointment.

Well, the order in council clinches it:

If you look on the left-hand side of the document, you will see the list of people to whom officials of the cabinet secretariat distributed the order.  “P” is the Premier.  The Natural Resources and Public Service Secretariat deputy ministers got copies, as did the Attorney General, the Deputy Clerk of the Executive Council and the file.

And so did someone named E. Matthews.

Just so that everyone understands just how crucial this document is, understand that the order in council is one of the basic legal instruments of our system of government.  You can find a handy definition of what an order in council is over at the Privy Council Office website along with a searchable database of these public documents.

To paraphrase, an order in council is a legal instrument made by the cabinet, called the Lieutenant Governor in Council, by powers given by a law or, less frequently, the royal prerogative.  In most provinces, orders in council are made on the recommendation of the responsible minister and take legal effect only when signed by the Lieutenant Governor.

They don’t get back-dated.  And they damn well don’t get left sitting idly around somewhere unattended.  The people who handle these things are nothing if not diligent to the point of anal retentivism about making sure everything is done just so. That’s not a knock on them; to the contrary, the people in the Executive Council office are among the most trustworthy and responsible people anywhere on the planet.

They don’t shag up, as a rule.

And in this case, they’d have extra incentive not to make a mistake.  As Shawn Skinner pointed out on Monday, these appointments belong entirely to the Premier.  Kathy Dunderdale gets to make them just like her predecessor Danny Williams did. That isn’t what happened before 2003, by the way.

If Kathy picked Liz, then there’d be hell to pay if Liz did not know that she could start earning cash come the New Year.

Nor is it really plausible that Kathy Dunderdale, Shawn Skinner or any of their senior staff might have buggered up and not mentioned to Liz she had a seat on the board.

Nor is it likely that they thought one didn’t happen without the other.  Shawn Skinner’s been pretty clear since Monday that they considered it a two-stage process, but stage one happened in December. 

The order in council makes the appointment to the board first.  Then it puts Matthews forward as a vice-chair, subject to federal approval.  That’s what Skinner told reporters on Monday.  As it turned out, the feds made a counter-offer to accept Matthews contingent on the province accepting a second vice-chair by federal appointment.

Nor is it likely David Cochrane either misunderstood what Matthews told him or made a fairly consistent mistake in conveying it via Twitter or anywhere else. Matthews relayed what he got and consistently put the comments to Skinner.

Now Liz may have misunderstood what was going on, but that’s a different – and entirely possible – thing. 

For something like this, Matthews would have been entitled to attend any board meetings after January 1, 2011 and participate like any other member.  The only thing that hadn’t been settled up to the time she bailed on the whole thing was the second part of the order.  That is, the federal government had not agreed to her appointment to the vice-chair’s job.

But her board appointment on behalf of the province?

Full legal effect on December 21.

With Matthews’ decision to bail on the appointment, the whole vice-chair position at the board is up in the air.  The idea of two vice-chairs appears to have been nothing more than an effort to have a federal appointee to offset Matthews. 

With her appointment now dead, there’s an opportunity for both St. John’s and Ottawa to agree on an open competition to be followed by an appointment based on qualifications and merit.

If nothing else, it’s got to beat the hell out of yet another complete disaster  - remember Andy Wells? - that its proponents have been forced to defend with what amount to claims of their own bungling and incompetence.

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Where is the Hebron development application?

Last January, the Hebron partners said they’d be submitting their development plan for Hebron to the offshore board by the end of the year.

That would have been December 2010.

Now it’s March 2011 and there’s still no sign of it.

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No more give-aways indeed: Big Oil’s L’il Buddy considering cash breaks for major oil companies

According to the cover story in the latest issue of Natural Resources magazine, the provincial government and representatives of the major oil companies are reviewing ways to increase exploration offshore.

Operators are presenting the government with a “suite” of proposals, according to [industry representative Paul] Barnes — many of them involving fiscal incentives, such as tax credits or royalty relief, that could spur increased exploration. 

Barnes is quoted as saying that the talks are “high-level” likely meaning they involve the Premier and other senior cabinet ministers. The 2007 energy plan included a recommendation to establish a working group involving industry and the provincial government to develop “regulatory and fiscal measures” to promote exploration as well as what the document refers to as “other industry needs.”

One idea reportedly under consideration is a royalty break for dry exploration wells.

For example, companies already producing in the area may favour some type of incentive that’s royalty based. If they drill a well and come up dry, they could get royalty relief on current production. “If there’s some risk offset, that may encourage some additional exploration activity,” Barnes noted. He said there are similar royalty-relief holidays for deepwater exploration in the Gulf of Mexico, to help mitigate the cost of unsuccessful wells.

That’s a significant switch from earlier Conservative positions but it is consistent with what the Conservatives have done since they took office.

For example, before 2003, when oil prices were below US$30 a barrel, Danny Williams attacked any suggestion that the Hebron partners might need a flat one percent oil royalty in the early years of any Hebron project.  Once in office, when oil prices tripled, he agreed to just just a windfall for the oil companies. The provincial government will lose hundreds of millions of dollars as a result, if oil prices remain above US$35 a barrel. 

Other issues for the industry include continued uncertainty about the province’s oil royalty regime.  The 2007 energy plan committed to scrap the existing one and replace it with a new approach.  Four years later there’s no sign of work being done, let alone any progress.

In natural gas, the provincial government still doesn’t have a royalty regime.  That’s despite the fact work on the rules started in 1997 and the 2007 energy plan outlined a draft royalty policy.

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Matthews bails on board position

Elizabeth Matthews is bailing out of her controversial nomination to serve as vice-chair of the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore petroleum Board.

It isn’t clear if she is also leaving her appointment to the board itself.

As CBC reports, Matthews is blaming the Opposition Liberals for politicising the entire matter.  Matthews served as a communications director for the Liberal administration of Roger Grimes before she left quickly to work for Danny Williams in the Opposition office where he was infamous for slinging wild, political accusations.  In another ironic twist, Matthews former boss said he got into politics because he was sick of all the patronage and corruption.

The big twist in the story appears to have come on Friday when the Liberals revealed a December 21 letter from natural resources minister Shawn Skinner to his federal counterpart appointing Matthews to the offshore with effect from 01 January 2011.

And then things went horribly wronger Update:

The Telegram has the full text of Matthews’ statement.  For starters, try and find the clear statement where she says she is quitting her appointment. Then check and see if she has actually launched any defamation action given her references to defamation.  This sounds suspiciously like John Hickey suing Roger Grimes for stuff Danny Williams said:  a huge pile of smoke to cover the catastrophe everyone else sees.

If that wasn’t enough, note, among other things, the change in her title in the Premier’s Office from the bio sketch in the letter on the appointment – “Senior Policy Advisor”  - to “a senior advisor”.  There’s a huge difference in the two.  That’s just the tip of that iceberg.

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Matthews appointment to offshore board kept under wraps until leak

Flip back to the provincial government news release archive for last December and there’s one thing you won’t see:  an announcement appointing Elizabeth Matthews to occupy a provincial seat on the offshore regulatory board.

That’s because they didn’t issue an announcement despite sending the federal government a letter advising the feds of the provincial appointment. You can find the letter online at the Official Opposition’s website.  They got it from the provincial natural resources department.

In the second paragraph of the letter, natural resources minister Shawn Skinner  also nominates Matthews as vice-chair of the offshore regulatory board. That’s something the federal government would have to agree to.  Apparently they did but only on the condition that the province accept a federal second vice-chair.

One huge difference between the two vice-chairs, incidentally is that the federal one actually was a senior policy advisor in a previous life.  The biographical sketch of Elizabeth Matthews was evidently written by someone in the latter stages of advanced pinochiosis.  For example, the bio sketch talks about a re-negotiation of the Atlantic Accord.  That never happened so it would be pretty hard for Matthews to have been involved in it at all, let alone at the level the writer claimed.

There’s a story in Saturday’s Telegram on this but sadly it isn’t online. The story includes some quotes from a bizarro news release Skinner issued on Friday, supposedly to correct information in the Liberal release that went out along with Skinner’s letter to the feds.

The bizarro thing is that he didn’t actually correct anything. Instead, Skinner confirmed what the Liberals said.  he also did a bit of a nose-puller when he claimed that the provincial government had to appoint Matthews to the board in order to nominate her as vice chair.

Think of that as being a chicken-and-egg version. Before now, the federal and provincial governments could successfully agree on an appointment as vice-chair before making an announcement.  The board seat was secondary.  In this case, the provincial government apparently tried to push Matthews forward with a seat on the board and then tried to cut the deal on the vice-chair’s job.

Surprise.  Surprise.

The feds didn’t play along and put forward their own nominee for a second spot in a “I’ll take yours but only if you take mine too” kinda deal.

Both bits of that – the provincial ploy and the federal counter - likely have a lot to do with the fact that Matthews is basically a patronage appointee with no relevant qualifications to take on the vice-chair’s job. She can’t really hold a candle to either the current or former chair and she’s outclassed experientially speaking by the guy she was supposedly replacing.  Had the provincial government opted for a meritorious appointment perhaps with an open competition they might have found one of several qualified women from the province to take the job.

Word of Matthews’ appointment leaked out about three or four weeks ago in the province’s oil community.  It caused a great deal of consternation.  A few weeks after word started to spread, CBC’s David Cochrane reported it.  He only gave the bare bones of the basic story though. Apparently CBC isn’t reporting the rest of these details as they’ve come to light.  It will be interesting to see if anyone adds new details to the story this week or if this is really the end of the story.

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Toronto Sun needs oil fact checker

Here’s the quote:

So you’ve got the only oil refinery processing Newfoundland crude owned by the South Korean government, while the other oil refineries in Eastern Canada process oil pumped from wells located halfway around the world.

That comes after a lengthy discussion about the Come by Chance oil refinery and where crude from the Newfoundland offshore goes.

Slight problem.

Come by Chance refines oil from Iraq, Venezuela and Russia.  It doesn’t refine anything from the local offshore.

Certainly the company that owns the refinery could get oil from the local offshore if it wanted to use it.  Some people like to spread a fable that the 1985 Atlantic Accord prevents it, along with prohibiting the construction of a new refinery in the province. But truth be told it merely puts some restrictions on refining Newfoundland offshore oil in Canada.

The oil companies ship their product to the United States because it is more profitable for them to do that.  They take the oil they pump out of the ground and ship it to their refineries and sell the refined products in their gas stations across the Untied States.

D’uh!

Makes good economic sense.

Meanwhile, the crowd at Come by Chance buy cheaper heavy sour crude from places like Venezuela and Iraq and ship that into the United States.  The stuff offshore Newfoundland is light, sweet crude, incidentally.  Higher wholesale price but also easier to refine into more products.  That means it is much more profitable in the longer run.

Someone at the Sun really needs to do some checking of those pesky facts.

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Good Tory? End of story

Telegram editor Russell Wangersky maps out the new normal in federal and provincial politics in a devastating column titled “Lies, the new truths.”

Russell’s right on the solution to the problem:  people have stop accepting what they are told at face value especially when it comes directly from people involved and who, in certain instances, have a vested interest in the story.

Do that and, among other things, you might avoid the gigantic embarrassment of tweeting “I just heard from her. This is a patently false rumour” only to have to suck the whole thing back minutes later when the thing turned out to be patently true. 

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Traffic with no secret appointments (Mar 7–Mar 11)

1. Dunderdale boosts Tory support from last Williams poll
2. MOU PIFO 2
3. The importance of education:  education and the economy
4. Tories at 44.5%;  UND at 39%:  government pollster
5. Patronage, pure and simple
6. The secret of life in Newfoundland and Labrador
7. Personal bankruptcies in Newfoundland and Labrador
8. AbitibiBowater, Democracy and the public interest
9. Drilling in Gulf is dangerous and unmanageable
10. Labrador Hydro:  That 70s Show

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Getting more women involved in elected politics

Take a gander at this clip from a recent edition of CTV’s Power Play with Don Martin. It features an interview with Nancy Peckford, executive director of Equal Voice.

Nancy covers some of the issues involved at the federal level in getting more women in elected politics.

 

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AbitibiBowater, Democracy and the Public Interest

There’s a new commentary from an Ottawa-based think tank on the AbitibiBowater expropriation.  The commentary is basically Brian Lee Crowley’s presentation to the Commons standing committee on international trade.

You can read the full text here. and below are four highlighted points:

“1.  The Chapter 11 provisions of NAFTA provide no bar whatsoever to Canadian
governments acting in the public interest through law and regulation, but they
properly require that the government pay the legitimate costs associated with
their decisions, including compensating parties whose property is confiscated or
nationalized.

2.  Paying compensation for expropriation is a matter of basic fairness and is a
fundamental principle in Canadian law, not just NAFTA.

3.  As a country with huge investments in other jurisdictions, we benefit enormously from such investor protections in other countries, and failure to apply
such protections domestically would damage our credibility and harm Canadian
investors

4.  The AbitibiBowater case points up a damaging inconsistency in Canada’s constitutional and legal framework whereby Canada has the treaty-making power
and, therefore, is responsible to ensure that we meet our treaty obligations; but
provinces are not bound to respect the NAFTA provisions. A mechanism can and
should be found to oblige provinces to take responsibility for their decisions and
prevent them from passing the costs of provincial decisions on to the federal taxpayer.”

There’s also a version of the presentation in a Troymedia piece called “Provinces behaving badly and what can be done about it”:

Governments in Canada have the right to take your house, farm, or factory, but the requirements of fairness and the Canadian democratic tradition normally subject that power to limits. Governments must compensate you if they take your property. Moreover they don’t get to set the price unilaterally; it must be done by an arm’s length agency and be subject to judicial review.

It was Newfoundland and Labrador’s decision to ignore these rules of decent behaviour that created the damage that federal taxpayers must now clean up.

If there is any kind of a democratic deficit in the AbitibiBowater decision, surely it is here: in a genuine democracy, voters should have to face the true costs of their decisions so that they can make a balanced assessment of the pros and cons. The current arrangements force innocent federal taxpayers, who have no hand in choosing provincial governments in other provinces, to nonetheless pay the tab for those governments’ bad behaviour. And that is practically the textbook definition of a perverse incentive.

 

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Labrador hydro: That 70s Show reruns

Listening to Leo Abbass on CBC radio Wednesday afternoon, you could almost imagine you were back in the 1970s. 

Harry Hibbs. 

Banana seat bicycles. 

Joan Morrissey. 

All around the circle.

John Crosbie with muttonchops. 

The whole shooting match.

Radio Noon had Abbass, the mayor of Happy Valley-Goose Bay, as the guest for its hour-long call-in show. He was talking up Muskrat Falls, the economic disaster doing business as Danny Williams’ memorial to Hisself. 

Some guy called in to point out that after construction ended, there’d only be a handful of jobs left keeping an eye on the gauges as all the power streamed off somewhere other than Labrador.  Abbass disagreed.  After all, he reasoned, there’d be all that cheap power available to lure some industry or other and hundreds of jobs to boot.

Flick your mind back 40 years - if it goes back that far -  and you probably remember another bunch of politicians who said exactly the same thing. That was the big idea for Churchill Falls back to the 1950s when Joe Smallwood supposedly first dreamed his first dream of immortality: cheap power for aluminum plants and lumber mills. 

Ditto Baie d’Espoir on the island.  That one was supposed to support not one, not two, not even three or four major new industries.  By the time Joe Smallwood and his crew got around to that one, their cheap power was supposed to sustain seven new industries.

Seven.

With one blow.

Paper mill.

Refinery.

Petrochemical plant. 

Hockey stick factory.  Betcha never heard that one before.

Phosphorus plant.

A bunch of new industries.

Hundreds of new jobs.

All with cheap power.

2 mills, even less than at Churchill Falls.

Not even the pretext of trying to make the thing break even.

Just like the aluminum smelter in Labrador.  That old chestnut is still good for all sorts of mileage even from the most highly educated members of our population.

What do the hydroqueen, at least one recent premier, the odd economist, and now maybe a mayor have in common? 

Your first two guesses don’t count but if you get it right, you could win the chance to cut the ribbon at the Grand Opening of the latest Great Unnamed Industry to Save Newfoundland (and Labrador). 

The gigantic load of horse manure is that much a part of our culture that when they get done with the 60th anniversary of the Fisheries Broadcast, CBC should celebrate 60 years of aluminum smelter rumours in Newfoundland and Labrador. 

Oh dear.  Was that sarcasm? 

There’ll probably be a Telegram column now defending the honour of this beloved fairy tale.  If two university professors get a quote in the paper noting its turd-like aroma, you can bet there’ll be at least two columns, one of which will point out that the two learneds are – whispers – you know.

That way.

What way?

You know:

Different.

You mean mainlanders?

YES!  For Gawd’s sake.

And as such, they are unfit to comment at all on our revered customs and venerated observances.

Like Screech-ins and gravel-pit camping, both of which have been practiced in the province (and maybe even Labrador) since John Cabot’s time at least. 

Surely, that long.

And they are definitely not – respectively – a cheesy 1970s marketing gimmick by the liquor corporation and a relic of the post-war era when the government actually had enough money to build roads for people to drive cars on.

And it isn’t just this Labrador hydro power stuff.

Take a look at municipal politics.  Some poor sod who went into a coma around the time of the Canada Summer Games in 1977 and who sprang back to life this week would look at the TV and wonder what the frig was going on.  Some woman from city council with a hat on then talking about being verbally beaten up by her fellow councillors when his lights went out. Now that the lights are back on,  he sees some woman from city council with a hat on…

You get the idea.

Then there’s the fishery.

Only difference is that this cartoon today would have the one guy with four hands covering ears and eyes and with both feet in his mouth.

Since 2003, it’s like the province – and Labrador - is one giant trip back to the 70s.

 

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Personal Bankruptcies in Newfoundland and Labrador

The following chart shows personal bankruptcies in Newfoundland and Labrador from 1991 to 2009.

Data is from Statistics Canada, compiled by the Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency.

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The secret of life in Newfoundland and Labrador

The secret of life and comedy is timing.

In this case, the secret of life in Newfoundland and Labrador would be the curious coincidence in timing of a conference to discuss ways of getting more women involved in the oil and gas industry with the leak that the provincial government passed over qualified female candidates in the industry for a job at the offshore regulatory board in favour of pure patronage.

As much as this sort of old-fashion pork may be the nature of life under the provincial Conservatives, it isn’t very funny.

What it does make clear, though, is that anyone hoping to increase the number of women involved in the province’s offshore industry is going to have a long way to go.

First you’ve got to get rid of these very old, very backward ideas about patronage and entitlements and get government to make appointments based on merit first.

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A trading nation: 2011 update

Newfoundland and Labrador exports more to the United States than any other foreign location.  This is a point made in a 2005 post but more recent numbers tell just exactly how important a role the United States plays.

In 2008, total exports peaked at more than $10 billion.  Two years later, exports to the United States have only recovered to slightly more than it was in 2005;  that’s about $6.4 billion.

In 2010, the next largest export destination was Germany at $734 million, then China at $704 million.  It’s a big slide to the fourth largest export destination – the Netherlands – and $120 million in exports in 2010.  When you look at those figures, consider how foolhardy it was to ignore free trade negotiations with the European Union.

On the flip side, the largest import source for Newfoundland and Labrador remains Iraq at $1.8 billion.  Next is Russia at $595 million followed by the United States at $324 million.  The fourth largest import source is Venezuela.

If you are trying to figure out those import sources, think about the largest export destination.  Think of oil and you are in the right neighbourhood.  Iraq is the chief source of heavy sour crude for Come by Chance and on the flip side, all that refined product is destined for the Untied States.

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Drilling in Gulf is dangerous and unmanageable

Marilyn Clark, a Magdalen Islander studying at Memorial University, argues that oil and gas exploration in the Gulf of St. Lawrence is unmanageable and dangerous in the current regulatory context.

She writes in the Montreal Gazette:

What will governance look like with four offshore regulators in less than 500 kilometres of water? If we believe that Quebec and Newfoundland will cooperate to prioritize citizens, we are kidding ourselves. They have already sliced moving water down the middle to conduct their environmental assessments.

The lack of a harmonized approach for a single body of water will permit pollution without political accountability; the citizens of one province will have no way of holding the governments of other provinces responsible.

Why is the government gambling with the assets of my region, while the renewable resources of southwest Nova Scotia and British Columbia are protected? The Gulf only fully flushes itself out once a year. If drill cuttings, waste water and chronic spills are the new ingredients of our Gulf, we will be importing our lobster from the Caribbean and our crab from Asia. How can I be expected to invest in my region when I know that the offshore regulatory framework is so flawed that oil companies monitor themselves?

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The importance of education: education and the economy

The National Post’s Kelly McParland offered a colourful chart last November comparing a number of things, including federal transfers to provinces (on a per person basis), provincial gross domestic product and the amount spent per person on education.

There are also some bullet points. 

One stood out:

Newfoundland has strong investment, high GDP, generous transfers, yet still has the country’s highest unemployment and spends very little on education. Might those last two be related?

They might well be related. 

But then again, it is hard to know for sure given that the figures for per capita education spending, for example,  are from 2006 and unemployment is from 2010. There’s no indication why the figures are from different years but they are;  it’s not like the information is secret or otherwise unavailable. 

As for employment rates, in October 2010 it was around 13%  - according to the Post chart - and in October 2006, it was 14%. The participation rate is up slightly in 2010 compared to 2006 (61% versus 58-59%).

Still, it’s hard to escape the idea that there is a connection between education and economic performance.

Consider this some food for thought.

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Dunderdale boosts Tory support from last Williams poll: government pollster (revised numbers) #nlpoli #cdnpoli

Corporate Research Associates issued a correction to its latest polling numbers for Newfoundland and Labrador on Monday and the result is truly startling.

The Conservatives under Kathy Dunderdale have the support of 56% of voters compared to 51% for the Tories under Danny Williams in November 2010.

Sure her personal popularity may be less than Danny’s but she’s managed to pull the Tories out of their downward slide in Danny’s last three months that took them from 61% in August to 51% in November.  Dunderdale’s started the Tories back on the path to the stars and without doing very much of anything for the past three months except fend off a weak challenge to her leadership by Brad Cabana.

Not surprisingly, the Conventional media are following along with CRA’s news release and their own conventional wisdom to make the poll numbers fit what they think the numbers should say.  They are saying that Dunderdale is not as strong as Danny but she is still pretty big.

But as absurd as it may seem, the CRA numbers really put Kathy ahead of her old patron.

According to CRA’s revised numbers, undecideds dropped from 31% to 23% in the three months or so Danny’s been gone.  The unfiltered, undistorted CRA numbers show Tory support went from 51% in November with Danny as leader to 56% with Kathy Dunderdale.

Both the change in party support for the Tories and the change in undecideds is outside the margin of error (4..9 percentage points)

“How could this be?” you are likely asking.

Call it the mother of all typos.

The original news release included this sentence:

Those with no stated preference included those who were undecided (18%), do not plan to vote (3%), or refuse to state a preference (18%).

That adds up to 39%.

The table at the end of the news release gave the figure as 23%.  Apparently that second 18% was only supposed to be two percent.

Not 18.

2.

Big difference.

It’s a bit of a head scratcher as to how someone could mistakenly type “18” instead of “2” and how the release could get out the door with such a glaring error.

Your humble e-scribbler took the figures in the text of the release in largest part since they were consistent, across the board with a similar poll done by NTV/Telelink in February.  Those are the figures used in an earlier post. 

Now what we are left with is a poll that mirrors Telelink in every way except in Conservative support and the level of undecided/no answer and will not votes.  The differences are hardly inconsequential. 

What this cock-up really should be is a reminder that CRA’s poll reporting does contain some rather glaring problems.  For instance, CRA routinely distorts the results of its polls by presenting only the results for decided voters. You can see the effect of that misrepresentation by charting the results as a share of all responses, not just the “decideds”. This chart is taken from post last December on CRA’s fourth quarter poll.

According to CRA’s version, the Conservative party’s support remains in the mid 70s. What doesn’t get noticed is that the “undecided” category has gone from the teens to 31% in November 2010.  Now it’s dropped again to 23% in the most recent poll.

You’ll also see in the middle of that chart another clue that something is seriously wrong with CRA’s polls.  That flat line in the middle would be a period of three consecutive quarterly polls where the difference in Tory support was apparently less than one percent. Those interested in a more detailed discussion can find it in an older post:  There’s a fairly lengthy post that discusses most of the major problems with CRA polling:  “How the Tories get 28% more votes thanks to CRA”..

For the first time in a long while, CBC has added a few questions to CRA’s quarterly polling.  Ostensibly they give new information, but essentially, CBC just gives a variation on the basic horse race questions. One of the CBC questions even repeats the same flawed question format of “mostly” and “completely” and equally extreme negative choices.  On other occasions, incidentally, CRA has asked a typical five point Likert scale (strong and moderate positives and negatives with a neutral) and reported the results as “completely” or “mostly” as appropriate. 

What is the difference, after all, between completely and mostly, compared to completely and somewhat?  think about it for a second and you’ll get the point.

What’s missing in all the questions is the sort of stuff that would give any indication of what Newfoundlanders and Labradorians are concerned about.  What pollsters typically do is ask what issues are of concern to their respondents.  Then they might ask voters to rate party performance on each question.  Sometimes they might leave out the party support questions so as not to unduly influence the responses, but with or without it, one can get a much better sense of what potential voters are thinking.

Instead of some insight, one gets absurd responses.  For example, when asked whether Williams departure will influence party choice (the question itself is oddly worded, by the way), 34% said they were less likely to vote Conservative while 30% said they are more likely. 

Huh?

Exactly.

And don’t forget the Conservatives supposedly enjoy 73% voter support  - using CRA’s own method of reporting - with only 18% actually undecided in their party choice.

And as a last point, let’s just remember this basic point.  CRA polls eligible voters.  They don’t screen for usual voters or regular voters.  They just survey all eligible voters. That means you need to compare their poll results, including UND/DK/NA with the actual poll results for any given election.

In their Fall 2007 quarterly survey, CRA put the combined no answer/will not vote/undecided at a mere 18%. The actual result on polling day was 38%.  CRA’s quarterly polls typically show that the “will not vote” category is less than five percent.

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White Rose field may get GBS

According to the Telegram, the White Rose partners are looking at using a concrete gravity base structure or GBS.

The concrete well-head unit would support a drilling rig.  Oil from the wellhead would be pumped to the existing SeaRose floating production, storage and offloading vessel and from there to tankers to take it to market.

“We’re looking at a whole range of different concepts,” said Paul McCloskey, Husky’s East Coast vice-president

“One of the opportunities that we are considering is the installation of a very skinny GBS.

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Tories at 44.5%, UND at 39%: government pollster #nlpoli #cdnpoli

Double-down Update:

• CRA's issued a correction that its UND category was 23% as shown in the table not 39% shown in the text.  That's one mother of a typo and therefore that's worth a whole new post, coming later.
• CBC apparently piggybacked on this one and has some specific questions of its own coming later on Monday evening.  That would warrant a separate post on its own.
• New post:  “Dunderdale boosts Tory support from last Williams poll”

Original Post begins...

Support for the ruling provincial Conservatives under Kathy Dunderdale is at 44.5% compared to 61% last August under Danny Williams according to a Corporate Research Associates quarterly poll released on Monday.  The results match almost exactly with a recent NTV/Telelink poll that put support for the province’s Tories at 44.3%.

Undecided, including those who refused to answer and those who do not plan to vote is at 39%, up eight percentage points from CRA’s November 2010 poll.  NTV/Telelink reported 37.9% of its respondents didn’t know how they might vote, wouldn’t state a preference or indicated they would not vote.

And that’s where the real story is for these polling numbers.  According to CRA’s polls, support for the provincial Conservatives started to slide during the last three months of Danny Williams’ leadership.  His abrupt departure didn’t stop the slide.

What’s worse, the margin of error for this poll is 4.9%.  That means there is a possible variation in those numbers of almost 10 percentage points.  Given that the Tory and UND number is less than 10% is it possible that more people are undecided or won’t state a preference than are actually indicating they will vote for the provincial Conservatives.

There are problems with the way CRA presents its figures.  For example, they show party choice for decided voters.  This is highly misleading as can be seen in the party vote numbers. The obvious decline in Tory support vanishes completely because of the way CRA reports its figures.

Still, if you look at the numbers, understand what you are seeing, and can check them against a second set of figures like NTV/Telelink, the results can be dramatically different than what you will see reported by conventional media.

These poll results from two different firms don’t  mean the Tories will lose the next general election.  What they do show is an electorate which is sufficiently uncomfortable that they will not state a clear support for the ruling party.  The fall general election could be up for grabs, depending on what the Conservatives and the opposition parties do over the next three to seven months.

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