Dunderdale boosts Tory support from last Williams poll: government pollster (revised numbers) #nlpoli #cdnpoli

Corporate Research Associates issued a correction to its latest polling numbers for Newfoundland and Labrador on Monday and the result is truly startling.

The Conservatives under Kathy Dunderdale have the support of 56% of voters compared to 51% for the Tories under Danny Williams in November 2010.

Sure her personal popularity may be less than Danny’s but she’s managed to pull the Tories out of their downward slide in Danny’s last three months that took them from 61% in August to 51% in November.  Dunderdale’s started the Tories back on the path to the stars and without doing very much of anything for the past three months except fend off a weak challenge to her leadership by Brad Cabana.

Not surprisingly, the Conventional media are following along with CRA’s news release and their own conventional wisdom to make the poll numbers fit what they think the numbers should say.  They are saying that Dunderdale is not as strong as Danny but she is still pretty big.

But as absurd as it may seem, the CRA numbers really put Kathy ahead of her old patron.

According to CRA’s revised numbers, undecideds dropped from 31% to 23% in the three months or so Danny’s been gone.  The unfiltered, undistorted CRA numbers show Tory support went from 51% in November with Danny as leader to 56% with Kathy Dunderdale.

Both the change in party support for the Tories and the change in undecideds is outside the margin of error (4..9 percentage points)

“How could this be?” you are likely asking.

Call it the mother of all typos.

The original news release included this sentence:

Those with no stated preference included those who were undecided (18%), do not plan to vote (3%), or refuse to state a preference (18%).

That adds up to 39%.

The table at the end of the news release gave the figure as 23%.  Apparently that second 18% was only supposed to be two percent.

Not 18.

2.

Big difference.

It’s a bit of a head scratcher as to how someone could mistakenly type “18” instead of “2” and how the release could get out the door with such a glaring error.

Your humble e-scribbler took the figures in the text of the release in largest part since they were consistent, across the board with a similar poll done by NTV/Telelink in February.  Those are the figures used in an earlier post. 

Now what we are left with is a poll that mirrors Telelink in every way except in Conservative support and the level of undecided/no answer and will not votes.  The differences are hardly inconsequential. 

What this cock-up really should be is a reminder that CRA’s poll reporting does contain some rather glaring problems.  For instance, CRA routinely distorts the results of its polls by presenting only the results for decided voters. You can see the effect of that misrepresentation by charting the results as a share of all responses, not just the “decideds”. This chart is taken from post last December on CRA’s fourth quarter poll.

According to CRA’s version, the Conservative party’s support remains in the mid 70s. What doesn’t get noticed is that the “undecided” category has gone from the teens to 31% in November 2010.  Now it’s dropped again to 23% in the most recent poll.

You’ll also see in the middle of that chart another clue that something is seriously wrong with CRA’s polls.  That flat line in the middle would be a period of three consecutive quarterly polls where the difference in Tory support was apparently less than one percent. Those interested in a more detailed discussion can find it in an older post:  There’s a fairly lengthy post that discusses most of the major problems with CRA polling:  “How the Tories get 28% more votes thanks to CRA”..

For the first time in a long while, CBC has added a few questions to CRA’s quarterly polling.  Ostensibly they give new information, but essentially, CBC just gives a variation on the basic horse race questions. One of the CBC questions even repeats the same flawed question format of “mostly” and “completely” and equally extreme negative choices.  On other occasions, incidentally, CRA has asked a typical five point Likert scale (strong and moderate positives and negatives with a neutral) and reported the results as “completely” or “mostly” as appropriate. 

What is the difference, after all, between completely and mostly, compared to completely and somewhat?  think about it for a second and you’ll get the point.

What’s missing in all the questions is the sort of stuff that would give any indication of what Newfoundlanders and Labradorians are concerned about.  What pollsters typically do is ask what issues are of concern to their respondents.  Then they might ask voters to rate party performance on each question.  Sometimes they might leave out the party support questions so as not to unduly influence the responses, but with or without it, one can get a much better sense of what potential voters are thinking.

Instead of some insight, one gets absurd responses.  For example, when asked whether Williams departure will influence party choice (the question itself is oddly worded, by the way), 34% said they were less likely to vote Conservative while 30% said they are more likely. 

Huh?

Exactly.

And don’t forget the Conservatives supposedly enjoy 73% voter support  - using CRA’s own method of reporting - with only 18% actually undecided in their party choice.

And as a last point, let’s just remember this basic point.  CRA polls eligible voters.  They don’t screen for usual voters or regular voters.  They just survey all eligible voters. That means you need to compare their poll results, including UND/DK/NA with the actual poll results for any given election.

In their Fall 2007 quarterly survey, CRA put the combined no answer/will not vote/undecided at a mere 18%. The actual result on polling day was 38%.  CRA’s quarterly polls typically show that the “will not vote” category is less than five percent.

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White Rose field may get GBS

According to the Telegram, the White Rose partners are looking at using a concrete gravity base structure or GBS.

The concrete well-head unit would support a drilling rig.  Oil from the wellhead would be pumped to the existing SeaRose floating production, storage and offloading vessel and from there to tankers to take it to market.

“We’re looking at a whole range of different concepts,” said Paul McCloskey, Husky’s East Coast vice-president

“One of the opportunities that we are considering is the installation of a very skinny GBS.

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Tories at 44.5%, UND at 39%: government pollster #nlpoli #cdnpoli

Double-down Update:

• CRA's issued a correction that its UND category was 23% as shown in the table not 39% shown in the text.  That's one mother of a typo and therefore that's worth a whole new post, coming later.
• CBC apparently piggybacked on this one and has some specific questions of its own coming later on Monday evening.  That would warrant a separate post on its own.
• New post:  “Dunderdale boosts Tory support from last Williams poll”

Original Post begins...

Support for the ruling provincial Conservatives under Kathy Dunderdale is at 44.5% compared to 61% last August under Danny Williams according to a Corporate Research Associates quarterly poll released on Monday.  The results match almost exactly with a recent NTV/Telelink poll that put support for the province’s Tories at 44.3%.

Undecided, including those who refused to answer and those who do not plan to vote is at 39%, up eight percentage points from CRA’s November 2010 poll.  NTV/Telelink reported 37.9% of its respondents didn’t know how they might vote, wouldn’t state a preference or indicated they would not vote.

And that’s where the real story is for these polling numbers.  According to CRA’s polls, support for the provincial Conservatives started to slide during the last three months of Danny Williams’ leadership.  His abrupt departure didn’t stop the slide.

What’s worse, the margin of error for this poll is 4.9%.  That means there is a possible variation in those numbers of almost 10 percentage points.  Given that the Tory and UND number is less than 10% is it possible that more people are undecided or won’t state a preference than are actually indicating they will vote for the provincial Conservatives.

There are problems with the way CRA presents its figures.  For example, they show party choice for decided voters.  This is highly misleading as can be seen in the party vote numbers. The obvious decline in Tory support vanishes completely because of the way CRA reports its figures.

Still, if you look at the numbers, understand what you are seeing, and can check them against a second set of figures like NTV/Telelink, the results can be dramatically different than what you will see reported by conventional media.

These poll results from two different firms don’t  mean the Tories will lose the next general election.  What they do show is an electorate which is sufficiently uncomfortable that they will not state a clear support for the ruling party.  The fall general election could be up for grabs, depending on what the Conservatives and the opposition parties do over the next three to seven months.

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MOU PIFO 2

For those who haven’t watched it yet, the raw video of fisheries minister Clyde Jackman’s news conference on the fisheries restructuring report  is worth watching in its entirety. 

Jackman and his staff apparently tried to rush the reporters and overwhelm them.  Instead of the usual background briefing on the report and a lengthy introductory statement, Jackman simply sat down, blathered out some perfunctory thanks and quickly asked for the first question.

What happens next is both beautiful and horrifying.  The beauty is in the elegance of reporters’ questions, especially CBC’s David Cochrane:  simple, focused and sharp despite working with the considerable handicap of not having read the lengthy report ahead of time.  They fillet Jackman’s credibility in living colour and lay out for anyone who cares to see it both the solution to the fisheries crisis and the only serious obstacle to it, namely the provincial government itself.

The horrifying bit is Jackman, his finger sometimes point here and there while he desperately tried to say something that did not sound asinine.  What Jackman fell back on repeatedly were a bunch of stock phrases about the need to treat the industry like an industry or the “ask” for a whole lot of money.  The result – the horrifying bit – comes with the realization that either the cabinet is completely fractured over fisheries reform and cannot figure out what to do or that they are agreed that the fishery must simply be allowed to collapse of its own accord.

There simply isn’t another alternative for Jackman’s performance.  After all, you don’t have to watch too much of his squirming to get the feeling that Jackman was busily clicking his heels under the table and muttering “There’s no place like home, Toto” under his breath.

In all likelihood, the current cabinet, like previous cabinets simply can’t get a position they can all agree on.   That would explain why Jackman never could define what he actually wanted instead of the report in front of him.  That’s why he relied on stock phrases that themselves meant nothing.  And as a result, one gets the idea pretty clearly that the provincial government simply doesn’t know what it wants, except to know that they did not want to accept the report in front of him and all its implications.

What Jackman did mention one too many times for comfort was the idea that some people think time will take care of the whole thing.  In other words, in an industry dominated by people rapidly approaching retirement, most of the people who would be “restructured” will simply leave the industry on their own if nothing else happens. He also talked about signs that prices might be climbing again soon, perhaps another clue as to what some in the provincial government might be hoping for.

Cochrane asked if the entire MOU process was now a waste of time.  Four and a half years of work at building a consensus in the industry seems to have come to naught. Not at all, said Jackman since now everyone has a study that describes exactly how bad things really are; now people can talk about solutions.

People have been talking about solutions for years.  This report was supposed to be the first step to action, not to further talk.  For anyone willing to pay attention, comments this past week made it pretty clear that both processors and fish harvesters are done with talking.  They want some action.

That leaves the provincial government in a terrible spot:  there is an election in October. The fishery is a gigantic political problem affecting many districts on the island and in Labrador. The governing party not only has no idea what to do about the fishery, they cannot even develop a strategy to effectively manage the controversy.

And what’s more, they have no distractions, no foreign demons, no bits of absurd political theatre to use to distract people.

What a terrible place to be in.

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Traffic without patronage, Feb 28 to Mar 3

1. HMV
2. Provgov pollster seeds ground for bad news
3. A cheaper, green alternative to Muskrat Falls
4. MOU PIFO
5. Are city councillors paid enough?
6. Patronage, pure and simple
7. CB city council by-election down to five
8. Birds of a Conservative feather
9. Court docket now online
10. 35% unsure of Dunderdale

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Charlie or Gaddafi-Duck?

From the Mirror, a list of comments.

You have to pick whether the line came from Charlie Sheen or Muammar Qadafhi.

Then try the Vanity Fair version.

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So who would be the deputy Max?

The Atlantic Accord Implementation Act, 1987 allows for the appointment of two vice-chairs at the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board.

But with two vice-chairs, who will be the board member to fill in for chief executive officer Max Ruelokke if he is away for a vacation or is otherwise not on the job?

Here’s what section 14 says:

The Board shall designate a member to act as Chairman of the Board during any absence or incapacity of the Chairman or vacancy in the office of Chairman, and that person, while acting as Chairman, has and may exercise all of the powers and perform all of the duties and functions of the Chairman.

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Patronage, pure and simple

Take out a piece of paper and a pencil and it wouldn’t take you very long to write down the names of men and women from the private or public sector who are qualified by their experience to take on the job of vice-chair at the federal-provincial agency that regulates the offshore industry.

Limit the list to just women and you’d still have a fair number of very capable people.

Elizabeth Matthews  - Danny Williams’ former communications director  - wouldn’t be on the list anywhere.

She wouldn’t be left out of consideration because she isn’t smart or capable in her own right.  It’s just that she lacks the experience necessary for the job.

It’s that simple.

By proposing to appoint the unqualified Matthews as vice chair of the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board, Kathy Dunderdale has shown exactly the same tendency to propose unqualified people for very important jobs her patron had.  Andy Wells, the former mayor of St. John’s is perhaps the best example of that. 

However, Andy Wells is surely not the only example of an appointment that left many people scratching their heads in bewilderment or – as again with the Matthews appointment – setting teeth on edge in the province’s oil industry. They might have understood appointing Danny Williams’  former chief of staff who is also looking for a new gig now that Williams has left politics.  At least, Brian Crawley had work experience in the industry on the Hibernia project.  For the past couple of weeks though, the movers and shakers in the local oil patch are shaking their heads at the sort of appointment one might find in some banana republic rather than in a Canadian jurisdiction that aspires to be among the world leaders in regulating a complex industry.

Conservatives are trotting out the idea that Matthews will somehow change the communications practices at the board because of her work experience.  The board already has a competent and experience public relations practitioner, for one thing and Matthews certainly isn’t needed for that.  What’s more important to realise in that regard is that, as others have pointed out, Matthews helped to create and sustain one of the most secretive political machines in the province’s history. 

What both the provincial [and] federal governments ought to have done in this case is what the position warrants:  an open competition in which the successful candidate is appointed based on merit.  That’s how such a senior position ought to be filled.  That’s how they filled the chairman’s job a few years.  The process wound up a mess [in that case] simply because Danny Williams intervened to try and foist his blatantly unqualified whim onto a process that was supposed to be driven by merit. Just because the law says appointments like this are made by cabinet does not mean that they must be handed out as patronage plums.

Merit ought to count for much more that it does with the current provincial administration.

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*   Corrections in square brackets

Birds of a Conservative feather

Not surprisingly at all, the federal Conservatives now call it the “Harper government”. 

From 2003 to 2010 in Newfoundland and Labrador, it was always the Williams government, too.

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From the extraordinarily stupid comments file

The Western Star -  the newspaper that previously blamed the opposition Liberals for Danny Williams’ expropriation fiasco – now thinks that Liberals should just go away and let the Conservatives do as they see fit.

Is that just an extraordinarily stupid comment, even for the Western Star, or what?

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HMV

Danny Williams, on why he got into politics:

I was tired of the patronage and the corruption.

Well maybe he as tired of half of that.

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35% unsure of Dunderdale

A new poll by VisionCritical/Angus Reid shows Kathy Dunderdale with the second highest approval rating of premiers across Canada. Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall topped the list at 63% approval, with 16% undecided

But look at the numbers in the wider context and you can see why the provincial government’s pollster was in the news this week lowering public expectations for his client. Don Mills told the Telegram that: “[Premier Kathy Dunderdale’s popularity is] not going to be 75 per cent, I wouldn’t think.” 

Mills’ polling firm was cluing up the quarterly survey when he made the comments. The VisionCritical/Angus Reid numbers give an indication of the numbers Mills was likely picking up.

Dunderdale’s got the highest reported undecided – 35% – of any Premier in the country. Dunderdale is slightly ahead of New Brunswick Conservative at 33% undecided.  His approval rating is also the third highest at 42%.

Dunderdale is also a long way from Danny Williams’ approval numbers.  In November 2010 he was at 67% and in February 2010 he had the approval of 80% of those surveyed.  Fully 78% approved of Williams and only 12% were unsure in November 2009.

That was an enormous drop for Williams and the trend is still downward for his hand-picked successor.

What’s more, VisionCritical/Angus Reid’s question is not a choice of one leader compared to others:  it merely measures people’s opinion about the premier himself or herself from people within their respective provinces. Mills’ polls ask respondents to chose the political party leader they would prefer to see as Premier.

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A cheaper, green alternative to Muskrat Falls

Natural resources minister Shawn Skinner has hit on a cheaper, less risky green alternative to the Muskrat Falls megaproject.

He didn’t mean to do that, of course.  he was actually trying to justify Muskrat Falls by claiming the project will give the province energy security by allowing the island portion of the province to import power from the mainland in the event of an emergency.

The major way of doing that would be through the tie to Nova Scotia, according to Skinner. As the Telegram quotes Skinner:

“We’re anticipating to mostly use it to export excess capacity, excess electricity into the Atlantic provinces and the northeast United States, but in the event of a catastrophe … it would be possible for us to import electricity,” Skinner said in a recent interview.

That’s certainly true, but that isn’t a rationale for building a very expensive dam in Labrador and a very expensive power line from that dam to St. John’s especially when the island portion of the province doesn’t need the juice. 

But let’s just allow for a second that the island needs power. Skinner has actually given Newfoundlanders and Labradorians a far better option to meet the province’s energy needs that building Muskrat Falls.

At $1.2 billion, the line to Nova Scotia would actually meet the island’s energy needs and give the energy security Skinner is talking about. Nalcor or Newfoundland Power could import power from the mainland if it is needed. 

But more importantly the line from Nova Scotia and an upgrade to the line across the Isthmus of Avalon would help bring to market all that stranded central Newfoundland hydro seized by government in the botched expropriation.  In addition, it would allow for wind and new small hydro projects on the island.  Right now, there’s no place for that extra power to go when it isn’t needed on the island.  A link to Nova Scotia would take care of that.

And all that wind generation and small hydro – far cheaper than Muskrat Falls  - would help displace the thermal generator at Holyrood with green energy that is far cheaper than the $5.0 billion dam and power line project that is at the heart of Danny Williams’ legacy project.

The line would cost $1.2 billion compared to $5.0 billion for the dam and line to St.John’s.  Emera is already committed to the Nova Scotia line.  If Nalcor split the bill 50/50, then the actual cost of Nalcor would be a mere $600 million plus annual operating costs.  Nalcor and Emera wouldn’t need a federal loan guarantee or any federal financial help at all in that scenario.  Nalcor could fund its share from offshore oil revenues.  Heck, the provincial government could build it’s share of the line right now for cash since it has billions on hand in temporary investments.  Talk about the perfect go-it-alone, stand-on-your-own-two-feet, “have province” option.

On top of that, there are plenty of private operators ready to build wind projects on the island;  the only thing stopping them right now is Nalcor and government policy.  In other words, there’s no practical reason not to pursue the cheaper, green options.  Private sector companies could build the projects either alone or in partnership with Nalcor. 

Unfortunately, the tie to Nova Scotia is the last thing on the list of things to be built for the current version of the Lower Churchill. And right now Skinner and his colleagues are obsessed with a very expensive very risky project that could wind up going way over budget. 

Given the soft markets for electricity in the near-term, it would actually make economic sense to wait a while to build the entire Lower Churchill until the markets will buy the power with long-term deals.  That’s much better for consumers in the province who, right now, are staring at a government hell-bent on doubling their electricity rates by 2017 and saddling them with $5.0 billion in debt on top of the $12 billion they currently owe.

There’d be an added bonus in building the Nova Scotia line first:  Nalcor would have export infrastructure plus it would have a megaproject to its credit to prove to investors it can deliver complex engineering work on-time and at or under budget.

On top of that, a policy that encouraged private sector investment for wind development would go a long way to reversing the image the province has gained since 2003 of a banana republic where the government is closed for business.

Cheap, green energy to meet the needs on the most populous part of the province at a low cost and with the potential to bring new revenue from exports?

Job done.

Association of Seafood Producers responds to Jackman

Below you’ll find the complete text of a statement issued Tuesday by the Association of Seafood Producers.

Key bits:

• ASP clearly supports the process that led to the report and the report itself, describing Tom Clift’s work as “a comprehensive analysis of the predicament facing the industry” and as something that lay the groundwork for “a planned landing”
• By refusing to take the report to cabinet, fisheries minister Clyde Jackman is apparently breaking one of government’s commitments in the memorandum of understanding.
• The processors were looking for government assistance in securing a loan to help pay for the industry down-sizing, not a simple request for cash as the fisheries minister suggested.

:

You an find the Telegram’s online story here.

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Labrador Metis to seek injunction blocking Muskrat project

The NunatuKavut Metis Nation will be seeking an injunction to halt environmental assessment hearings on the Muskrat Falls project, according to CBC News.

Chris Montague of the NunatuKavut Metis Nation said the group is meeting with a lawyer Tuesday morning.

He said the Metis group expects to file an injunction against Nalcor, the provincial environmental department, and the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency, as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday.

UPDATE:  The Metis filed an injunction on Tuesday morning in the Supreme Court of Newfoundland and Labrador, according to the Telegram.

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Are city councillors paid enough?

Debbie Hanlon doesn’t think so.

Residents of the city took pains to explain otherwise in the comments section of Monday’s Telegram story. Their comments make this story well worth reading.

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February Traffic Patterns

1. Humber West post mortem
2. From 61% to 44% since August:  NTV poll shows Tory support slides further
3. Connies torquing Bev Oda
4. Cheryl Gallant sinks
5. Layton will cave
6. Kremlinology 32:  the St. Valentine’s Day Massacre
7. Signs of the Granterdannerung
8. Tweet of the week (early edition)
9. Dunderdale admin awards lucrative legal work without tender and Never heard that before and Think federal equity stake (three way tie)
10. Quebec interested in lunatic megaproject

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Noble gets deep water license in Gulf of Mexico

The United States Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Regulation and Enforcement has issued a license to Noble Energy to continue work on a well located 115 kilometres southeast of Venice, Louisiana, according to the Globe and Mail and other media outlets.

The company started drilling the exploratory well just before last year’s catastrophe.

The Wall Street Journal reports the well is in 6,500 feet of water.

There are six other permits for deep water drilling currently awaiting approval, according to the New York Times.

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CB city council by-election down to five

cornerbrooker.com has a great little piece on the west coast city’s municipal by-election.

This leaves five candidates competing for one City Council seat: June Alteen, Gary Kelly, Trent Quinton, Tarragh Shanahan, and Alton Whelan.

Aside from some lawn signs, most candidates have been fairly quiet so far, however I think that Gary Kelly is at least proving that he’s visible and willing to work for the position. You may have seen him marching up and down O’Connell Drive in all sorts of nasty weather, or standing outside hockey games at the Pepsi Centre with his bright yellow campaign sign, waving as the cars head down the hill.

They mention that Gary also has a website and is using Twitter and Facebook.  That’s not surprising for a guy who was an early adopter to blogging  and who ran one of the best little gems of a blog in the process. A lot of politicians in the province could learn a lot of lessons from Gary.

For what it’s worth, Gary has the Bond Papers endorsement. Corner Brook readers of these e-scribblers would be well served if they voted for Gary in the by-election.

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Provgov pollster seeds ground for bad news

Provincial government pollster Don Mills is in the Telegram on Monday getting people ready for yet a further decline in polling numbers for the province’s ruling Conservatives.

“[Premier Kathy Dunderdale’s popularity is] not going to be 75 per cent, I wouldn’t think,” he said. “To some extent, it will have nothing to do with Kathy Dunderdale at all. I think it’s just going to be people realizing that (Williams) was a pretty extraordinary personality that commanded support across party lines.”

As you can see, Mills wasn’t just contented to hint that the numbers would be down;  he also felt obliged to offer his opinion on the implications.  The basis for his opinion won’t ever be found in any of his polling numbers.  They are – like his seat projections in 2007 – based on something else.

Mills is talking about personality popularity – or even name recognition – but neither of those are directly connected to ballot results.  Danny Williams personal popularity soared after 2005 but in the 2007 general election, the Conservatives garnered the same share of eligible vote they had in 2003. 

A recent poll by NTV/Telelink puts the Conservatives under Kathy Dunderdale as the choice of  44% of eligible vote.  That continues a steady decline registered by Corporate Research over the third and fourth quarters of 2010.  If the implication of Mills’ comments are borne out, CRA’s poll that is just clueing up should confirm the NTV/Telelink numbers.

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