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If you weren’t one of the 14,412 people generating 17,698 pageviews at Bond Papers in September, here’s what they were reading:
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Newfoundland and Labrador was the only province to experience a population loss in the second quarter of 2010, according to figures released Wednesday by Statistics Canada. The cause is primarily net interprovincial outflows, in other words outmigration. That’s also the first drop since 2008.
While the provincial government issued a news released last quarter trumpeting the gain of a mere 96 people, you are unlikely to see a release like it this month talking about a drop three times the size.
Here’s what the past five years looks like, by quarter.
Now it could be nothing at all but a blip. Then again, it could be a sign of things to come. Note that for the last three quarters the rate of growth has dropped dramatically. That suggests the steam was going out of things and that the Q1 results were the peak of the curve.
You can see that more clearly if you look at this chart:
In less than a year, the province went from gaining 130 people in a quarter to losing 300.
And actually, this could also mean that the North American economy is on solid footing. The change in migration patterns for Newfoundland and Labrador in Q3 2007 actually heralded the onset of the recession. A long-term analysis of provincial population suggests that the population grows shortly before major recession. Those are all people working elsewhere with relatively weak ties to the community who opt to come back to the province to weather the economic storm. When things pick up, they head off again.
And as much as the province’s finance minister may like to believe otherwise, odds are that is what’s going on again.
Great news, wot?
Well, not really. The longer term demographic problems that come with that aren’t ones the current administration and its unsound financial and economic management are not ready to cope with. Not by a long shot.
Don’t forget that in this pre-election and pre-leadership period, you can bet the government won’t be willing or able to do much to start adjusting to cope with the harsh reality of the economy and demographics. In fact, the next 18 months are basically a write-off for serious government decisions to deal with the problem.
On top of that you can forget the period between the election and whenever the new Premier arrives to replace the Old Man. And if that doesn’t wind up happening happen until a couple of years before the 2015 election you can almost write off dramatic policy shifts until that election is history as well.
Wow.
Not to worry sez you. There’s oil.
Sure there is.
Unfortunately, production and royalties won’t be able to cope with the demand for added revenue. There’s not much else going on to take up the slack and for good measure, the current administration plans to use oil money to fuel increases for education and health care and use exactly the same money to build the $14 billion Lower Churchill project.
Here’s lookin’ at you, kid…
…as you leave the province again.
At least we’ll always have Ottawa.
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Friday was a busy day for the province’s glorious leader.
Helicopter ride with Steve and Fabe out to visit places hit by Igor.
A bit of video fun somewhere in there.
For those who can’t read that, it says “vendredi, le 24 septembre 2010”.
Maybe if Mark Critch from This hour as 22 minutes knew about the helicopter ride long enough in advance, he could have had even more fun with the Premier’s French.
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The newly elected premier of New Brunswick is promising to tackle a provincial budget deficit approaching a billion dollars by “holding the line” on taxes and eliminating “wasteful” spending.
Oh yes.
And he’ll balance the budget in four years.
It’s going to be very interesting to see how he manages to sort out New Brunswick’s financial mess, at the same time, promising no radical change.
The New Brunswick Tories have their work cut out for them.
A new Progressive Conservative government led by David Alward will:
- Cancel future tax reductions f or the 1,300 richest New Brunswickers, who have an average income of $450,000, announced by Shawn Graham last year. This move will allow New Brunswickers to keep more than $120 million over the next four years to tackle the deficit and protect front line services, senior care and education for our children.
- Target a two percent reduction in wasteful and unnecessary spending while protecting spending on priority programs in health, education and services to those in need. Under the leadership of a temporary Government Review Office, this action will result in savings of $150 million annually.
- Create a “Taxpayers First” website for people to submit their ideas on where to save money in government to reduce the deficit and where to invest in better programs and services.
- Hold the line on cutting corporate taxes to 10%, still the lowest rate in the country, preserving $25 million in annual funding for government programs.
- Reduce by 50% the small business tax rate during our four-year term.
- Require that the Auditor General produce a special report on the province’s finances 60 days before each fixed election date.
- Propose new laws to start down the road to balanced budgets within four years.
- Increase the frequency of financial reports so that New Brunswickers can judge our performance.
- Propose new rules on how much the provincial government can spend in any one year, including a legislated cap on total spending that can only be exceeded under special circumstances.
- Bring forward legislation requiring government to table a deficit reduction plan with every budget, and that the Auditor General verify the results annually.
- Encourage more collaboration between government departments to promote efficiencies and share common services.
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As Brigadier Tony Stack reminded everyone in an interview with CBC Radio on Tuesday [audio file] , the 1,000 members of the Canadian Forces at work on relief operations in Newfoundland are really just adding to a substantial effort already done by provincial government employees and volunteers.
The Town of Bonavista lifted its state of emergency on Tuesday. That’s another milestone in what will be a long road to complete recovery.
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Via Globe gossip columnist Jane Taber, what turns out to be a surprisingly perceptive appraisal of the Old Man’s latest foray into semi-pro television humour:
He also learned how to say a couple of other choice phrases in French: “Miss, miss,” the Premier says, waving his hand impatiently while his seatmate, a little boy, looks quizzically at him. “I’ve got a question. How, how do you say, ‘Quebec is getting away with highway robbery’ in French?”
In case you were wondering, this is a joke. Mr. Williams is a guest on CBC’s comedy show, 22 Minutes, Tuesday night. But it’s not very funny; it’s cringe-worthy.
Good thing the Old Man wasn’t thinking of a leap to federal politics when he finally hangs up the local crown.
Maybe by then Mark will be looking for a replacement.
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What better time to issue a news release noting that a whole bunch of volunteers are helping out after a disaster than four days into it and long before the thing is over?
The wording, of course, must have the ring of a rejected greeting card to increase the sincerity of the sentiment behind the release.
Oh yes: Don’t forget to plug your website and advertising campaign with the slogan that in no way is the subject of guffaws and derision across the province.
Finish with a snappy close that in absolutely no way came out of government-issued phrase generator. Like “to help ensure that [insert event type here] happens in the most safe and efficient way possible.”
The provincial government agency responsible for the volunteer sector – Dave Denine, minister - would never be so tacky.
Would they?
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Also last week the emergency measures organization seemed to keep a low profile. perhaps its employees were doing what they were supposed to be doing, but some of my journalistic friends working this hurricane story told me EMO seemed more than willing to hand over visual and public responsibility to cabinet ministers, to talking heads all of whom one would think know little or nothing about these matters, certainly a lot less than officials with a specific mandate to deal with, as the name implies, emergencies.Right after saying that, Wakeham noted that there did not seem last week to be a sense of immediacy to the emergency response.
From RBC Economics:
Atlantic Canada’s housing market was not immune to the significant slowdown in activity that has swept across the country since spring. In the last few months, housing resales in the region fell back to the lows reached during the late 2008 to early 2009 downturn. The decline was felt across the board, including areas, such as St. John’s, which were on a tear earlier this year. The cooling in demand loosened up market conditions a little – they were very tight at the start of this year – and restrained home price increases. In turn, this limited the rise in homeownership costs in the region. Depending on the housing type, RBC Housing Affordability Measures moved up between 1.1 and 1.5 percentage points in the second quarter and remain very close to long-term averages. Overall, housing affordability in Atlantic Canada
continues to be quite attractive and signals little in the way of undue
stress at this point.
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The number of Employment Insurance claimants dropped in every province in Canada in July compared to June except in Newfoundland and Labrador. The province saw an increase of 2.4% in EI claims in July, matching the increase seen in June from May.
Year over year, the number of claims is down 16.2%.
In June to July 2009, the number of EI claims went up by 6.5% but then dropped by 8.7% the next month.
Over the past year, the number of claims has dropped each month, except for the past two. Most months, the drops were modest, ranging from 0.0% to 1.3%. Except for the July to August 2009 drop of 8.7%, the largest drop was 3.2% from October to November 2009.
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Via Trudy Lundrigan and Flickr, here are some photos of the impact Hurricane Igor had on Lawn, Newfoundland.
Lawn is currently out of gasoline. A shipment of gasoline sent by ship to the southern part of the Burin Peninsula didn’t stretch far enough to cover the community. CBC quotes the mayor of the town saying:
"We're waiting now. We've got no gas here whatsoever," said Mayor Bill Lockyer, before calling the decision that put his community in this position "brainless."
Lockyer said given the road conditions, Lawn residents have the longest drive to the Grand Bank hospital of any Burin town. And the community of almost 800 is home to at least three people who require dialysis treatment, Lockyer said.
The provincial government is using some of the government’s own ferries to move supplies across Placentia Bay to the communities on the southern part of the peninsula. They are currently isolated by damaged bridges. While repairs are underway, it is possible they may only be able to handled reduced traffic loads for the first while after they are back in service.
CBC also quotes one resident who is concerned about the current state of affairs:
"We haven't seen any help at all," [Jenny] Tarrant said.
Tarrant said apart from what she can find online, she's not hearing any plans for relief. She said until Lawn residents get some answers about when aid is coming, concern will continue to spread.
Assessment of roads continues but the widespread nature of the damage continues to hamper recovery efforts. Canadian Forces engineers decided to postpone bridge installations on the Bonavista Peninsula Sunday pending an improvement in road conditions. The existing state of roads prevents heavy trucks from moving equipment into position.
All areas of the province now have electricity. Newfoundland Power crews completed the the job of reconnecting lines over the weekend and are now focused on dealing with individual homes and small clusters that have lost power due to tree damage to specific sections of the grid.
A map released by the Government of Canada over the weekend gives some indication of the scope of the problem facing recovery teams. Towns marked in purple have declared states of emergency. those in red have food shortages. The map is current as of 1130 hours local time, Saturday 25 Sep 2010.
While roads damage is keeping some communities isolated, recovery teams have airlifted fuel into a number of towns and villages.
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Via Rick Martin, an up-to-date pile of information related to Hurricane Igor emergency response and donations.
If you need contact info or want to assist by donations, this is the place to visit first.
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* Freudian slip correction
@cbcnl’s website gives the most comprehensive collection of Hurricane Igor coverage out there.
You’ll also find a decent site at The Telegram, @stjohnstelegram on Twitter. Some stunning photos on their story pages. Hopefully they’ll collect them together in a special space. The shots and the shooters deserve that recognition.
NTV News doesn’t have a separate Igor space but their website contains all their broadcast stories. Ditto VOCM, the largest private radio broadcaster in the province.
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Update: 26 Sep 10: Third ship is actually HMCS Montreal, another FFH, not HMCS Moncton as earlier indicated.
Elements of 4 ESR are involved in bridge construction and supplying potable water to communities where fresh water is unavailable, according to media reports. in addition to army water purification capability, the three FFHs have the capacity to produce drinking water.
HMC ships Fredericton and Montreal arrived from Halifax. HMCS St. John’s at St. John’s during and immediately after IGOR. The week before the ship had carried the Lieutenant-Governor on his annual tour to remote coastal communities.
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Original Post (24 Sep 10):
For those who are interested, here are some links to background information on the units and equipment involved in the Canadian Forces’ disaster relief operation in Newfoundland:
The Regiment's primary operational task is the provision of sustainment engineering such as water supply, route maintenance and construction, vertical construction and the provision of utilities. The Regiment is also capable of performing traditional engineer tasks in the following areas: mobility and survivability.
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According to the Prime MInister, engineers from 4 Engineer Support Regiment in Gagetown are on their way to Newfoundland to assist in disaster relief.
As well, two or three ships – HMCS Fredericton, HMCS St. John’s and maybe HMCS Moncton – and helicopters on Fredericton and St. John’s are available for hurricane relief as well.
News media are reporting that. Here’s a Telegram story complete with a picture of Fredtown offshore Grand Bank.
Seems no one told the provincial government which delayed a newser Friday afternoon by a whole hour after the Prime Minister left town.
In addition, the Provincial Government has requested from the Government of Canada the provision of support from the Department of National Defense. [sic] The specific support being requested consists of Sea King helicopters and the ship-based naval support necessary to maintain operation of these helicopters, which have night flying and heavy lifting capabilities.
That release seems like the provincial government specifically wanted to limit the DND help available by asking only for helicopters. And for the record, the helicopters don’t actually need ships. The ships just happen to bring other capabilities with them, like water-purification units, medical facilities and other essential services needed during disaster relief operations.
Either the person who wrote that bit of the news release simply didn’t know what was going on or he or she wanted to minimise the scope of the help the provincial government needed.
Still no word on whether the engineers are coming or why the provincial government didn’t request help earlier. Given the magnitude of the disaster it seems strange the provincial government would hesitate to take advantage of the considerable resources available even through the local reserve forces of the navy, army and air force.
Some four days after Hurricane Igor ripped through Newfoundland and Labrador, more and more people are calling local media to complain about the lack of provincial government action in the wake of the disaster.
On Friday afternoon, local media reports suggest that:
Make no mistake: responsibility for emergency response in the province sits squarely on the shoulders of the politicians who flitted around in helicopters for two days. The federal government can only act once they get a request from the province. If the Canadian Forces aren’t in Newfoundland already it is simply because the provincial government didn’t ask for them.
In the days ahead, the provincial government may face some very difficult questions about its failure to seek help even when the magnitude of the disaster was well known. Things were bad enough on the first day. They were painfully obvious by the second. By Friday – the fourth day – the scope was overwhelming.
Who knows why the provincial cabinet delayed asking for help as long as it did? One thing is for sure, you can tell there are political consequences to the provincial government’s inaction. Were it not so, the government’s political friends – like Bill Rowe – would not be trying so desperately to push responsibility for emergency response onto someone else’s shoulders.
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Education minister Darin King called VOCM’s night time call-in show to take a pot-shot at people criticising government for its supposed lack of emergency communications.
He and his colleagues have been working hard on behalf of their constituents, Darin assured us all. Darin and Clyde Jackman only took time away from their districts to go to a cabinet meeting in St. John’s. Presumably, if they came to St. John’s, they flew there on a chartered helicopter but that will be another story.
Darin mentioned he has been pushing information out via his Facebook site, for example. Okay, sez your humble e-scribbler, let’s check out the important storm and recovery info Darin is offering his constituents.
There are a couple of things on Darin’s website, as of 2130 hours Thursday night. Like this tourism notice:
The other thing is basically a report on his helicopter ride, issued September 23, which would be the day after his ride. Note that it doesn’t really contain any official emergency response information and what it does give is pretty vague.
As for Facebook, there are 12 notes on Darin’s “wall” in the past two days. Two of them contain information about road repairs. He had to get the big giant head in there though, in case people might not recall where they found the information. Maybe it is just there as a reminder that – as Darin said a couple of times during his call Thursday night – you have to check the source of the information:
The other wall posts are essentially all pictures taken during the recent helicopter tour by the Premier and a few other bigwigs.
The comms assessment? The noise to signal ratio is pretty high. Lots of static: very little useful information.
But the scarcity of solid information on Darin’s site suggests that even cabinet ministers aren’t getting good updates on what is going on. That reinforces the point that the provincial government’s emergency response system desperately needs a complete overhaul. If you take Darin’s helicopter ride “update” at face value, there’s no sign of the emergency services division at all. The whole thing seems rather haphazard.
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