At the last minute, Harris ducks

In the last hours of the campaign, New Democrat candidate Jack Harris was hit with a simple, straightforward question.

Rather than answer it just as straightforwardly, he ducked it with a comment that his Conservative opponent was raising it at the last minute.

Maybe Jack needs to trying answering the question about what he plans to do with his considerable provincial pension.

After all, it can't be a good thing when Walter Noel is backing you with some comment about why people shouldn't worry about a politician's other sources of income.

Hmmm.

Makes you wonder on a subject no one should wonder about.

-srbp-

The Fruitloop Factory

There's no allowing for the myriad reason why people feel the need to make stuff up, nor that they would use this false stuff for their own political ends.

Nope.

All we can wonder about is how people actually wind up believe sheer crap and run around repeating it like it was...

true.

Stuff that can be easily shown to be...wait for it...completely false.

Like say the stuff about Barak Obama.

-srbp-

Iceland eyes IMF

As they prepared to head to Moscow to negotiation a four billion euro bailout, Icelandic officials gave signs on Sunday the country was looking at the International Monetary Fund as a potential source of help during the country's economic collapse. [Reuters-Iceland]

"My conclusion is that if we appeal to the IMF, other central banks and other nations would follow that track," Industry Minister Ossur Skarphedinsson told the Morgunbladid newspaper in a report published on its website on Sunday.

In related news, the Norwegian bank regulator moved on Sunday to take control of the Iceland bank Kaupthing's Norwegian arm. [Reuters - Norway]

-srbp-

Vote Dipper to stop the seal hunt

Why else would IFAW care about an election race in Canada?

 

-srbp-

Fishing for votes

Outgoing Connie fish minister Loyola Hearn is extending the damn fool fishery - an annual cod plunder disguised as tradition - just in time to try and snag a few more votes.

The only way for cod stocks to recover to commercial level is to keep these kinds of people off the water.

-srbp-

Harper hides

Okay, so the guy who will only speak to reporters in highly controlled conditions, is now canceling all media availabilities for the remainder of the campaign.

And this surprises who, exactly?

Meanwhile, in other news, reporters are burning their notebooks and any electronic record of their gushing over Harper's sudden appearance at breakfast early in the campaign. [Link to a National Self-Lampoon version.  Yes, it's the Lampoon but for some reason other media outlets fell for the bullshit even though they are genetically predisposed to ingest pre-digest pap and regurgitate it on command.]

Like that wasn't contrived either.

Sheesh.

During this campaign we have seen once again the ability of news media types to completely ignore the fact they are being manipulated despite ample evidence of the intention to manipulate.

Does anyone  - you'd have to be old enough - recall the whole roll of the dice piece from the Globe right before the whole Meech end game?  Same idea.

-srbp-

"Confederation is in danger": Cleary

Ryan Cleary, New Democratic Party, St. John's South-Mount Pearl, on his election blog:

“Confederation is in danger,” I said.

“Jack Layton, Jack Harris and myself can bring it back to safe ground.”

Ryan Cleary, editor of The Independent, May 2008:

I don’t want to seem ungrateful, but now that we’re rolling in the cash it may be time to consider breaking away from the country of Canada. If we’re teetering on the edge of economic independence anyway, why not go all the way and raise the Pink, White and Green outside Confederation Building?

Ummmm.

Which one are we supposed to believe is how Ryan really feels?

-srbp-

"Worse than first thought": Aussie foreign minister

From The Australian:

THE government's cabinet budget committee will meet later today to take any action deemed necessary from key meetings of the International Monetary Fund and Group of 20 finance ministers in New York today.

Foreign Minister Stephen Smith said there was a growing realisation that the international financial crisis was worse than originally thought.

-srbp-

CTV/ATV hatchet job

ATV and CTV are getting ripped for their hatchet job of Stephane Dion, and rightly so.

Geoff Meeker's media blog at the Telegram is a case in point.

May we expect a retraction any time soon from ATV and CTV?

Don't bet on it.

CTV's Craig Oliver is not only unfazed by the whole business, he trumpets it as a supposed example of how the country supposedly won't tolerate a leader who is not comfortable in both official languages.

The veteran journalists who commented at Geoff's post would disagree with Oliver's contention that the question would be "indelibly clear" "[t]o anyone with any comfort zone in English...".

The one point from Oliver's excuse pile that most would agree with is that the episode damaged Dion, even if only for a short while.

The next question top raise is why the whole episode occurred in the first place.  A network that features a dubious piece of analysis by Conrad Winn on its website in to different areas - the election and "world" space - should not be surprised if people started questioning its partisan affiliation. 

 

-srbp-

Dear Conrad...

Get a grip.

Obama was leading McCain before the meltdown.

McCain's miserable performance in the wake of the economic crisis has only worsened his position.

Some recent polls have Obama as much as 11 points in front of McCain nationally. Even Fox News analysts would have to reach to claim Obama is "fighting" to hold on to a "slim" lead.

That's nothing to shake a stick at.

It starts to get worse for McCain when one notices the shifts occurring in key demographic segments to Obama and away from McCain/Palin.

As for the Bill Ayers thing, the most spectacular point is that the McCain/Palin attack on that point has had almost no discernable impact on the latest Obama surge.

Perhaps your analysis is -  in a word -  simplistic.

Ditto the Canadian stuff.

In the past week or so we have seen the Conservative support in Quebec tumble as a direct response to Conservative messaging gaffes. No minor issues;  major gaffes.  The Conservatives who were poised to increase the Quebec riding count will now struggle to hold on to what they have.  Some numbers suggest their riding count will be halved.

Numbers have shifted dramatically in key Ontario ridings and even in British Columbia there has been a noticeable shift in voter intentions.

This hardly favours the Conservatives "one way or the other".

Far from being a case where voter intentions were solidly formed long ago in an election that may see "a "watershed" that changes fundamental voting patterns and party dominance for years to come", the current Canadian federal election is an example of how even front-runners can prove unpalatable to the majority of electors based on elector experienced with them.

Evidently there's something sitting close to Conrad's compass that is skewing his perspective.

-srbp-

Crude futures settle below US$78

Bloomberg.com is reporting that West Texas Intermediate for November delivery finished trading at the New York Mercantile Exchange at US$77.70 a barrel, the lowest price for front-month crude futures since last year.

Brent crude - closest in price to Grand Banks light, sweet - closed the day at US$74.09, a drop of almost eight and a half dollars from the day before. That puts crude oil $13 below the average price assumed by the provincial government at budget time last April.

At close of trading on Friday, crude futures up to April were below US$80 a barrel.

In other energy news, Harvest Energy - owners of the Come by Chance refinery - have delayed a planned $2.0 billion expansion of the 115K barrel per day refinery until 2010. Current economic turmoil is also forcing other energy companies to rethink plans in western Canada.

-srbp-

Jack channels Al Gore, in a bad way

New Democrat candidate Jack Harris seemed to be channeling Al Gore at the all candidates debate on CBC Radio Thursday.

No, not Enviro-Champ Al Gore, but the "I invented the Internet" version.

Morning Show host Jeff Gilhooley asked Harris what he would be able to accomplish for the riding if he were elected as an opposition bencher.

Harris replied he could do lots.

Like say when he was here in Newfoundland and Labrador, on the opposition benches:

"We've got school bussing in St. John's, which we didn't have, thanks to me."

Huh?

Thanks to Jack?

Jack may have advocated for school bussing but the service was extended to include metropolitan St. John's by Lloyd Matthews, the Liberal cabinet minister filling in for Judy Foote who was on sick leave at the time.

The candidates took turns whacking Jack largely because the polls have him way out in front of the rest.  They brought up all manner of points.  The video  - available at cbc.ca/nl/features/debate - makes for some entertaining viewing, even if the audio sucks.

Conservative Craig Westcott got in some of the sharpest licks, including one over Jack and what he plans to do with his provincial pension if he is elected to Ottawa. He kept it up on Friday with a statement aimed squarely at the issue of potential double-dipping by the former member of the provincial legislature:

"Yesterday during our all-candidate debate I posed a very simple question to NDP candidate Jack Harris: if he is elected to serve in Ottawa, will he follow in Norm Doyle's footsteps and donate his provincial pension to charity?

"Mr. Harris avoided answering this question during our debate. So I pose the question again: what will Jack do?"

"I'm not necessarily saying it's wrong to do it, but voters in St. John's East should know Jack Harris' position before election day."

Westcott also scored the most memorable jab during the all-candidates session:

"The only reason he's running this time is because the party couldn't come up with another candidate, so his arm was twisted by Jack Layton and Danny Williams [Harris' former law partner] so what I'd like to know is, when he goes to Ottawa and both of them tell him to jump, which one is he going to listen to?"

They may well have whacked at jack because he's the front runner.  Then again, when you claim credit for things you demonstrably didn't do, you pretty much invite a pile on.

-srbp-

The dark side of ABC

In "Enough traitor talk", Geoff Meeker at the Telegram takes issue with the extreme language being used by the ABC campaign in some instances:

Politics in Newfoundland and Labrador are heated and vitriolic, but this is something different. Something despicable. It turns my stomach.

One group, comfortably ensconced within the majority, has taken to condemning those they oppose as ‘traitors’, a crime that was punishable by death up until 1961. It’s pretty much the nastiest thing you can say about someone.

How far are we from smashing the windows of these traitors, burning crosses on their lawns and cutting them down with machetes?

-srbp-

Only Avalon up in the air

As of October 8, democraticSPACE is showing predicted winners in six of seven seats in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Only Avalon is left uncalled. The top picture shows the party that held the riding prior to the election call.  The bottom picture and the name show the candidate and party predicted to win.

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR

AVALON

BONAVISTA-GANDER-GRAND FALLS


SCOTT SIMMS

HUMBER-ST. BARBE-BAIE VERTE


GERRY BYRNE

LABRADOR


TODD RUSSELL

RANDOM-BURIN-ST. GEORGE’S


JUDY FOOTE

ST. JOHN’S EAST


JACK HARRIS

ST. JOHN’S SOUTH-MOUNT PEARL


SIOBHAN COADY

The website uses an elaborate mathematical model to project election results based on a combination of available poll results and past voting patterns.  That's a short-hand version.  Check the democraticspace.com site for a more detaile description of their methodology.

-srbp-

The politics of strange bedfellows, Merv and Craig version

Merv Wiseman, Conservative candidate in St. John's South-Mount Pearl.

Craig Westcott, Conservative candidate in St. John's East.

But not always such bosom buddies.

In April 2007, Merv Wiseman then president of the agriculture federation, found himself feeling nauseous at a Craig Westcott commentary on rural Newfoundland.

Wiseman accused Westcott of displaying the culture of defeat attitude toward rural Newfoundland that Stephen Harper displayed.

Ouchies.

Wiseman puts Westcott's comments down to an "urban" mind-set that doesn't understand the contribution made by the "rural."

Check out "The future of rural Newfoundland".  The ram audio file links still work.

-srbp-

Geez, that's gotta hurt

The view of Iceland then, for some. [h/t to Daimnation!]

His outline of how Iceland went from poverty to prosperity in less than two generations is an inspiration to the ambitions of small nations. In Newfoundland, the "Iceland Model" is a Holy Grail for politicians but they have a mental block when it comes to the reality that Newfoundland does not have control over certain economic policy that Iceland, as sovereign state, has and can make "top-level" policy to direct their economy. Fisheries management is only one example.  While on the surface, Newfoundland and Iceland may appear to have a lot in common, in reality, they are two different planets. The nationalist minded in Newfoundland eye Iceland doe-eyed as the future Newfoundland never had.

Iceland now.

For the fans of prognostication, the Offal News view in 2007, and for those looking for the Bond-able treatment, you can check out:

• Iceland's miracle:  the other side (December 2006):

Well, one of the costs of Iceland's supposed economic miracle is a currency that is dropping against the Euro. As a result, the Icelandic central bank has raised interests rates to 14.25%. It's been about 15 years since we've seen those kinds of interest rates in Canada.

Investors are keeping a close eye on the Iceland situation since the whole economic tension is coming from a government deficit on current account that is running at 27% of gross domestic product in the third quarter.

To put that in context, that's the equivalent of the provincial government here running a deficit - in a three month period just ended - of around $1.35 billion. That's just in one quarter, and assuming the economic output in the economy right at the moment is about $5.0 billion per quarter.

• Beowulf it ain't (August 2006):

But anyway, if this little story is right Danny Williams is going to look at how Iceland generates energy since "if it can be done there, it can certainly be done in" Newfoundland and Labrador.

Minor problem.

Iceland happens to sit on some pretty special geological real estate such that they country has active hotsprings and a volcano that's been known to erupt every so often. 87% of the country's heating needs are supplied by geothermal energy. That's heat from the Earth to you and me.

So of course, not everything done there can be done here.

• All trout live in trees (June 2005):

As noted in previous posts on this subject, the syllogism Iceland = Independent = Successful Fishery//Newfoundland=Not Independent=Fisheries Disaster doesn't stand up to closer scrutiny.

The idea of an independent Newfoundland managing the fishery as Iceland rests on a series of unfounded assumptions.

The local nationalists pushed the Iceland thing as hard as they could but events of the last few days have demonstrated unmistakably that their arguments were built on nothing but air.

A bit like the cartoons where the guy winds up running off the end of a cliff, only to find himself a few hundred feet up in the air.

Then he looks down.

Yep.

That's gotta hurt.

-srbp-

The little Cuba of the north

According to bloomberg.com, Moscow is offering the Icelanders A loan of four billion euros to help it get through the current crisis.

If Russia can support its stock market and preserve growth, the current financial crisis represents a chance to demonstrate ``influence in the world economy and the diminishing influence of the U.S,'' said Sergei Markov, an adviser to the Kremlin who is a lawmaker in the ruling United Russia party.

Both Putin, 56, and Medvedev, 43, have criticized the U.S. for spreading financial contagion around the world.

U.S. ``irresponsibility'' led to the global credit squeeze, which may reduce Russian growth to as little as 5.7 percent this year, according to the finance ministry, Putin told a cabinet meeting Oct. 1.

One former bank official is quoted as using the line that Iceland is becoming the little Cuba of the North.

Bit of a stretch, but still a cute line.

If things get tough will the locals here start recalling the pre-Confederation ties between Newfoundland and Tsarist and revolutionary Russia?

Maybe.

But don't mention Trotsky and the Cochrane Hotel.

-srbp-

And on the up side...

St. John's East Liberal candidate Walter Noel's political experience shone through at the start of an all-candidates forum on the local CBC Morning Show this morning.

When asked to identify the most important issue for his riding, Noel said it was the economy.

Noel hit that one and then nailed the corollary, given that the Conservative candidate isn't a contender:  the NDP ain't the ones to trust with managing the nation's economic problems.

Given the shifting strategic landscape and given that Jack Layton has abandoned his campaign goal to form a government, it reminds people they should be thinking twice about a stampede toward the Orange in the East.

It might be too little way too late, but you gotta give credit where it's due.

New Democrat Jack Harris  - the front runner - said the big issue for him was affordable housing.  Good choice but hardly likely to be the top-of-mind issue for voters in the riding, including Jack's own supporters.

-srbp-

Iceland banks have $250 million in NL fishery

Icelandic banks have invested at least $250 million in the Newfoundland and Labrador fishery.

Telegram editor Russell Wangersky pointed to that fact in his latest column:

That's the $250 million or so Williams was talking about last year, a number that has almost certainly grown considerably since then. Icelandic banks have traded on the fact that, coming from a fishing nation, they understand the needs of the fishery. And truth be told, they've been one of the few sources of available capital for fishing companies in this province, even before the credit crunch hit.

And now, those same banks are promising to get out of their overseas investments. That's a message that must be more than a little frightening for the industry in this province, with capital scarcer than ever.

If the Icelandic banks call those loans - as a ready source of foreign currency - some entity, public or private, will likely be called on to step in an assist the fishing companies.

-srbp-

Portent?

British Petroleum is halting work on a Delaware liquid natural gas plant:

“We've been looking at the global market conditions surrounding LNG, and the timing for a terminal just isn't right, so we've put it on hold for at least two years,” BP spokesman Tom Mueller said Wednesday.

“We will hold on to the property and look at conditions down the road,” Mr. Mueller added, noting that the company “believes New Jersey will need LNG infrastructure in the future, and we will position ourselves to do that.”

BP's plans, initially announced in December, 2003, called for a 2,200-foot pier to be built off Logan Township. It was designed to handle enough liquefied natural gas, or LNG, to serve 5 million homes and meet rising demand. [Globe and Mail]

-srbp-

The imaginary bubble

From RBC Economics' latest provincial forecast for Newfoundland and Labrador:

While domestic conditions are generally strong, growth in the economy is nonetheless expected to slow significantly relative to last year amid a leveling off in oil production. In 2007, the return to full operation of the Terra Nova offshore project and the completion of White Rose’s expansion have boosted crude oil
output by more than 20%. With no such increase this year, the contribution of the energy sector to provincial growth is likely to be flat or slightly negative.

Through the first six months of this year, crude oil production was down almost 9% year-over-year. All things considered, real growth in Newfoundland & Labrador’s real GDP is forecast to be negligible this year at 0.2% before picking up in 2009 to around 1.3% on the continued strength of the domestic economy.

Get that?

-  Oil production down by 9%  for the first half of 2008 compared to the same period in 2007.

-  Growth in real GDP at 0.2% in 2008 and only 1.2% in 2009.

Look at the whole report to get the full picture.

-srbp-

Pattern Behaviour 2: Spot the Pitcher Plants

Provincial Conservatives love to astroturf. In fact they've had this latest astroturf run planned for some time.

They love to call radio programs and make comments in support of their leader, usually following talking points that are astonishingly similar.  It's supposed to appear like a giant groundswell of support for their leader's cause du jour;  some of it - like the insistence they aren't coached - gets kinda funny.

Within the past 24 to 48 hours, the number of Pitcher Plants has jumped dramatically. The ABC Astroturf is in full bloom.

You can tell them a mile away:

1. They make repeated reference to "Premier Williams", pledge their support for him and praise him in the stereotypical pitcher plant fashion.  Most people don't have a need to do that;  Provincial Conservatives evidently do.
2. They make repeated references to the need to "stand up for your province".  A recurring theme among Provincial Conservatives is that the province consists of one mass whose interests are identical and who must act in a corporate fashion under the leadership of a single individual in order to achieve victory over external forces.  That's the foundation of Provincial Conservative politics since at least 2003.
3. They've been making repeated attacks on Fabian Manning.  Again, that hasn't been a common feature of the call-in shows to date.  Tonight it's all Fabe, all the time.  Despite the efforts to claim otherwise - nothing could be further from the truth - there's been a great deal of Family Feud energy directed to defeating Manning.
• Dead give-away:  they all make reference to the same episode, namely Manning sitting next to Harper in the House.  They describe this episode suing similar terms and typically misrepresent what happened in the same way their Leader did originally. People who aren't Provincial Conservatives don't need elaborate rationales to vote against Conservatives.
• Second dead give-away:  they praise any politician who has sided with their beloved "Premier Williams", usually referring to the individual as having acted in the best interests of his or her constituents.  To provincial Conservatives, their leader's decisions and the interest of the entire province are synonymous. (See Indicator 2 above)
4. They take great care to distinguish between Conservatives and the Provincial Conservatives, which they insist on calling Progressive.  Only Provincial Conservatives need to make that distinction for some reason.  Liberals and New Democrats don't care.
5. They turn up online making comments from behind a pseudonym.  In classic Provincial Conservative fashion, everything is about their leader. Note that the two comments here are from individuals who have a well-established pattern of behaviour presenting exactly the same kinds of comments offered here.  They didn't comment on the original post at all, suggesting that they weren't yet mobilized to start astroturfing.

-srbp-

Iceland sinks deeper into financial mess

1.  "Iceland teeters on brink of bankruptcy". (Forbes.com)

LONDON - Iceland is getting closer to becoming the first nation to go bankrupt as a result of the subprime mortgage crisis and resulting squeeze on lending. Late Wednesday afternoon in Europe, Fitch Ratings said it had cut Iceland's long-term sovereign currency issuer default ratings to "BBB-," from "A," putting them firmly in "junk" territory. Moody's also cut Iceland's sovereign rating to "A1," from "Aa1," and said its ratings were on review, according to TradeTheNews.com.

2.  "Iceland sinks further into crisis". (ABC7 Chicago)

Today, the government said it was abandoning a plan to nationalize the country's third-largest bank (Glitnir) and is instead putting it into receivership.

Further details at Marketwatch.

3.  The Icelandic meltdown jeopardises British citizens who have cash in a British subsidiary of Landesbanki.

More than 300,000 British customers had around £4 billion deposited in Icesave accounts, which until yesterday offered higher rates of interest than British banks.

The UK government last week issued a general guarantee that British account holders will be able to reclaim their money if their financial institution goes bankrupt - but only up to a maximum of £50,000 each.

4.  The Icelandic bank collapse will affect the fishery in Atlantic Canada. 

"The big impact that people probably are not aware of is that these Icelandic banks, Glitnir and Landesbanki, both those banks (finance) a lot of Atlantic Canadian seafood companies," said the chief executive officer of Black's Harbour-based Cooke Aquaculture Inc. on Tuesday.

"Glitnir has a very small piece of Cooke," he said. "These Icelandic banks they're banking a lot of firms - Clearwater Fine Foods, they're part of the syndication in Connors Brothers, they back the Barrett Group [sic.  Perhaps he meant the Barry Group] out of Newfoundland."

So much for the claims Newfoundland and Labrador is protected by a magic bubble.

5.  CBC Radio Noon (St. John's, ram audio).  Rob Greenwood of the Harris Centre at Memorial University discusses the Icelandic crisis in the context of local proponents of the Iceland model for Newfoundland and Labrador.

Rob gives it a nice try but it must be getting really hard to push the Icelandic model and fanciful notion of "subsidiarity" with any degree of seriousness.

-srbp-

Pattern behaviour

Faced with the prospect he can't deliver his consistently stated goal of ensuring no Conservatives are elected in Newfoundland and Labrador, Danny Williams shifted the goals of his Family Feud and completely reinvented what it was all about.

He did it a few weeks ago.

He repeated the completely rejigged goal of his ABC campaign and CBC is reporting the shift.

No one should be surprised.

It's part of the pattern.

-srbp-

The Can-Opener's surplus prediction

Memorial University economist Wade Locke:

"The price of oil has already averaged in excess of $110, $115 per barrel for the year so far, so even if the prices were to fall down to $10 per barrel, they would still meet their budget projections of $87 a barrel," Locke told CBC News on Monday.

"So the forecasts in the budget should still be fine. They should have a budget surplus even bigger than they what they had forecast."

Okay.

Let's see if that works out.

Given:

• The 2008 budget estimates predict oil royalties of $1.789 billion based on an assumed average price for oil of $87 per barrel.
• The 2008 budget estimates forecast a deficit on capital and current account of $414 million.
• The 2008 budget estimates forecast an additional borrowing requirement of $380 million for a combined cash requirement (borrowing) of $794 million.
• For the first six months of the fiscal year, Locke gives the average price for crude oil as $115 per barrel.
• The finance minister forecast a $544 million surplus in public statements and the budget speech, even though that figure does not appear anywhere in the budget estimates voted on by the House of Assembly.
• All other revenues and expenditures remain as projected in the estimates.
• Annual oil production is 111 million barrels.

Therefore:

• In order to attain a surplus of $544 million, provincial oil royalties would have to exceed the forecast by approximately $1.338 billion ($794 million + $544 million);  in total that would be oil royalties at $3.127 billion.
• If oil averages $115 per barrel for the entire fiscal year, the projected royalty would be $2.361525 billion.
• If oil averages $115 for half the fiscal year and $87 for the remaining six months, the total provincial royalty would be $2.05535 billion.
• Budget surplus (deficit) @ $115 for 12 months = ($766 million)
• Budget surplus (deficit) @ $115 or $87 over 12 = ($1.072 billion)

No matter how you slice it, that doesn't look like a surplus.

No matter how you slice it, that doesn't look like a larger surplus than the one supposedly forecast in the budget.

Anyone who wants to explain Locke's figuring or where the Bondable version is off is welcome to do so.  Either add your comment to his post or send it by e-mail and we'll do it for you.

-srbp-

Taylor's self-made hard spot

Provincial acting fisheries minister Trevor Taylor is in a hard spot.

You can tell he's in a hard spot because in order to criticize a recent fish quota trade deal, Taylor wound up resorting to an argument favoured by people Taylor usually criticizes harshly,  people like Gus Etchegary and Sue The Vanished Hydroqueen:

Taylor said the deal hearkens back to prior trade agreements, in which Canada traded its fisheries stocks for economic advantages.

Yes, it's a sign of complete bankruptcy when your argument is merely to repeat the same discredited fables as Gus, Sue and others.

Taylor called the deal tragic.

It's hard to see how it is tragic.

In exchange for allowing Americans to fish a portion of the Canadian quota for yellowtail flounder outside 200 miles, a portion not usually caught anyway, Canada gains.  It gains because:

-  the deal secures American support particularly for other conservation measures;

-  the deal includes Canadian access to over 600 tons of deep water shrimp which will be fished by a Newfoundland and Labrador company (and processed in already under-utilized plants);  and,

-  the deal includes an increased by-catch for American plaice which will allow the Newfoundland and Labrador harvesters to fish the yellow-tail flounder quota more efficiently and to a greater extent.

Sadly, the fishery is as misunderstood as the offshore oil and gas industry.  The result is that completely bogus arguments like the ones offered by Etchegary and Taylor are accepted as fact.

What is tragic is that Taylor is considering increasing plant capacity in a province in which there is way more capacity than existing quotas. Fish plant workers are making as little as $8,000 in some cases from their labour and must scramble to find other work in order to qualify for a pittance in employment insurance on top of that. The existing plants are in many respects  nothing more than stamp factories and Taylor is seriously considering making a bad situation demonstrably worse.

Taylor and the cabinet to which he belongs know what needs to be done.  They are - in effect - abrogating their responsibility to reorganize the fishery in a way that corrects the human tragedy and the economic tragedy in the province's fishery. Taylor and his colleagues are doing nothing more than following the less than sterling example of some recent fisheries ministers, like John Efford, who during his tenure increased the number of plant licenses and contributed to creating the current mess.

Such is the scope of the tragedy in the fishery.

Such is the scope of the tragedy that Taylor, who started his political career showing some promise, has become just another politician mucking about in the fishing industry for political purposes. 

A shuffling of the province's cabinet will evidently produce no positive change in the province's fishing industry.

That's another sign of the tragedy.

-srbp-

Marg, Princess Warrior tackles Harper again

From nlpress.ca.

CTV caves in face of ABC campaign

From Danny Williams comments on a voice of the cabinet minister call-in show on Sunday evening:

A couple of weeks ago when they were out in Harbour Grace, or Grace Harbour, as the Prime Minister referred the community to, you know, there was something came out of that whereby spokespeople for the Conservatives and for Mr. Manning came out and said that businesses were being threatened, that contracts were being threatened, that if people didn't vote ABC that our government was going to do something to them. CTV reported that and CTV actually had to retract that publicly on their network when it was found that those claims were unsubstantiated.

The original story is linked from this Bond Papers post: "Family Feud?  Try blood feud."

Let's see if CTV and Bob Fife want to comment on this.

-srbp-

The return of The Can-Opener

Memorial University economist Wade Locke is back in the news and, not surprisingly he is saying things the provincial government will love.

Like his view of oil prices and the chances for a budget surplus bigger than the one forecast:

"The price of oil has already averaged in excess of $110, $115 per barrel for the year so far, so even if the prices were to fall down to $10 per barrel, they would still meet their budget projections of $87 a barrel," Locke told CBC News on Monday.

"So the forecasts in the budget should still be fine. They should have a budget surplus even bigger than they what they had forecast."

Perhaps Wade would like to actually, you know, read the budget estimates and see what the budget says about oil averaging 87 bucks a barrel and surpluses.

Wade also believes that the world has changed fundamentally - high demand and no new supply - such that oil will sell above US$90 a barrel way out into the future.  In the short-term, - up to two years, according to Locke - they might dip but the long-term price will be high, higher and highest. Asked if he thought oil prices would go to  ten bucks a barrel, Locke gave an emphatic "no". 

Like we haven't heard that one being forecast before, based on the change in market fundamentals yada yada yada. There's likely tape somewhere of an economist telling us that there was absolutely no way oil would fall to $10 a barrel again;  that would be right before it went to 12 and then eight bucks.

Uh huh.

Even the Lower Churchill will go ahead, completely unscathed by the tightening of world capital markets. No problems there at all.  The future is bright, as Locke says.

Maybe someone should fire off a proposal to Trevor for some government cash to build a shades factory.  Not Raybans or anything pedestrian but some unique NewfoundlandLabrador brand of sunglasses to keep the unique sun out of our unique as we go around under this amazing bubble of economic protection that evidently surrounds us. 

Other places are falling victim to the global crisis but not here.

Economics is truly a dismal science. Aside from stating the obvious - that things will be unsettled in the next year or two - the rest of what Locke said was ultimately about as useful as something we'd get from Aline Chretien's confidant and her psychic alliance. No shame in that:  none of us can predict the future with any accuracy.  When we do get close it is often due more to blind luck than any insight or foresight.

Maybe to give a sense of Locke's analysis in the past though, perhaps we'll go back to his view of the Atlantic Accord when Danny was in full fight and Wade's view after the deal was inked.

Wee bit different.

But hey, at least we now know who Danny Williams turns to for economic advice and has been probably turning to for advice for some time.

Turns out it wasn't Sarah Palin after all.

-srbp-

Slim Whitman's Greatest Hits

Danny Williams, from a call to voice of the cabinet minister's Sunday night call-in show:

And, you know, there are issues that are very, very important to Newfoundlanders and Labradorians and we look at the economy and we look at where the American economy is going and Minister Flaherty was on last week and the Prime Minister is out saying oh no, we don't have to worry in Canada, everything is fabulous, everything is wonderful. But, you know, we have to realize that, you know, we do have a direct link to that American economy and if that tanks at some point in time, then, you know, we are vulnerable.

Followed immediately by:

Now that's not to say that, you know, there's going to be gloom and doom in Canada because Canada's fundamental are sound and I firmly believe that.

Well, there's a relief.

You know.

But it gets better.

You know.

Apparently, the province is somehow shielded from the goings-on in the world economy, even if, you know, we do have that direct link he mentioned and if that link "tanks" we would, you know,  be vulnerable:

And on the other side of it, you know, from our own perspective, you know, our economy is strong, we're in a better position than we've ever been, we're also in a very good position now with the, you know, the international financial crisis that's underway. We now, for the first time in our lives, are in a bit of a financial bubble and that's a wonderful thing. We have that protection and the people of this province got the support of the provincial government.

The bubble seems to be some kind of magical Star Trek kinda thing:

But I do think that Newfoundland and Labrador is in a very, very good position. Hopefully our surpluses will continue, hopefully they'll get even larger, it will enable us to do the things that we've been doing. I mean this, for us this hasn't happened overnight. We've been preparing for this.

Ahhh.

We got surpluses and ones that Williams hopes will get bigger.

You know.

Unless that link thing "tanks".

That would be the completely imaginary surpluses, though.

You know.

Which would make the protective bubble surrounding the provincial economy more like The Bubble in St. John's harbour.

Well, not exactly, because apparently some things have been going on behind the doors of Confederation Building people would not be aware of.

Like, you know, building a war chest whatever that means:

You know, we've built a war chest and, as well, we've tried to move our debt down to get us in a good position so that if ever there was a very, very, very serious situation we'd have to take that debt back up again, but we'd have the ability to do it. But, you know, we've been really, very fiscally prudent and fiscally responsible.

Ahhh, again.

You know.

So there's great comfort for all of us because even though we are vulnerable, there is a bubble of some kind, consisting of imaginary surpluses and then there's the debt which has been moving down due to the really very fiscally prudent responsibleness so that - only if there was a very, very, very serious situation  - we could drive the debt up again.

No word on what would happen if things only got very, very serious.

Or if that link thing tanking would be merely very serious, or if it would get enough veries to qualify for the debt growth bubble protection thing and then something else besides.

But anyway, we are vulnerable and then again, we aren't.

You know.

The debt has been going down.

Just like the chart at right shows.

If you hold it upside down, that is.

And it's not like we'd be planning on borrowing any more money in the meantime.

Like say for a major oil project.

Or a major hydroelectric project which the Premier said at the start of his call he had been busy working on.

A nine billion dollar project, which, if you notice, is actually more than the entire public debt load is currently.

Loyal Bond Papers readers will recall the idea of doubling the public debt being raised in January 2006.  That would be, if you recall, long before there was any talk of a major economic downturn. When the downturn came a little closer to reality, the Premier was  willing to acknowledge it would affect the Lower Churchill.

But then the Premier finished on a high note:

So, you know, Newfoundland and Labrador is very much on the move and so, you know, I'm pleased with the position we're in and I do think we're in a favoured position, to be quite honest with you.

To be quite honest, it is completely confusing to know that the province is vulnerable - as the Premier started out saying - and then to have him conclude by saying that this is a favoured position.

Up is down.  Vulnerable is favourable. Deficits are surpluses.

It would be funny, if it wasn't all so very serious.

You know.

-srbp-

Trevor's duck and cover explained

Trevor Taylor, part-time substitute fisheries minister in the Provincial Conservative government has been busily ducking a looming issue in the fisheries world.  In a system already grossly overstocked with processing capacity, Taylor's department has a recommendation under consideration to add a few more licenses.

The local CBC fisheries broadcast has been trying desperately to get Taylor on the air.

He's been unavailable.

Apparently, Trevor's been too busy campaigning against Fabian Manning, not in his free time or anything mind you but during the day time  - normal government working hours - when one might expect he could have found a few hours to devote to his custodial responsibilities in the fish department.

Seems Trevor has been joined on the hustings by attorney general Jerome Kennedy and intergovernmental affairs genius Tom Hedderson. 

You will recall Hedderson as the guy writing letters to Ottawa last June lobbying on a decision that was made...18 months earlier.

Trevor sees no problem with this carrying on partisan family fights during daylight hours.

Trevor also decided on Monday to issue a news release criticizing the federal government for a deal giving 1500 tonnes of yellowtail flounder from Canada's NAFO allocation to the Americans.

But sure Trevor and the boys are supporting the ABC campaign, you say.

Yes, sez your humble e-scribbler, but don't forget the real motivation for all these cabinet ministers to join in the Family Feud.

There's a big cabinet shuffle coming very shortly.  Being seen out there hammering away at The Boss' favourite cause is much better for the old career path than spending time doing other things, like say the job you get paid to do.

Oh.  That's right. 

Trevor did find time in his hectic hectoring schedule to call the Fisheries Broadcast and do an interview.

But that was after one of his predecessors outed him on the Family Feud thing.

-srbp-

Cats, frogs and something really lost in translation

Cute piece about Stephen Harper in Yarmouth Nova Scotia, a tickle in his throat and the side story about the different idiomatic expressions in English and French for the condition.  Frog in the throat in English;  cat in the throat in French.  A cough, a chuckle and a gaggle of confuddled Francophone reporters who missed the almost gaffe

All that from an English language Canadian Press story carried by the Star online.

Mais, the readers of copy from La Presse Canadienne got an autre histoire.

Seems Harper was coughing.

He was also pretty clear that while he thought Acadians were lovely people he had no intention of introducing a motion in the Commons recognizing the Acadians as comprising a nation within Canada:

"Je n'ai pas l'intention de faire une motion à la Chambre des communes", a déclaré, hier, le chef Stephen Harper, lors d'un point de presse à Yarmouth, en Nouvelle-Écosse.

Harper couldn't have had a cat in his throat.  The feline was too busy being set among the pigeons.

-srbp-

The way ahead

As a rule, Canadian political campaigns don't make use of the available technology to reach voters.

They don't.

The national party websites are light years ahead of what goes on at the riding level, but even nationally, they aren't anywhere close to the Obama campaign and its new iPhone application.

Yes. 

Barack Obama'[s people have introduced an application designed specifically for the iPhone.  The app allows the user to build contact lists, keep track of campaign news, and send information out to their personal contacts.

The basic idea behind the app is simple. It's a way of letting individual voters help mobilize their friends.  I love Obama.  I go and get a few friends to vote Obama.  Those friends are more likely to vote Obama because I am pushing it rather than because some dorky student from state u at butthole is sitting on their doorstep. 

Social media used to send a message through social networks.  Holy crap.  That's exactly what this stuff is for! 

And the psychology of it is as simple as it is brilliant as well. 

In one app you get an answer to declining voter turn-out,  voter tune-out, the shortage of volunteers all campaigns are experiencing and all the other woes of modern campaigning.  Get the activists going and let them spread the word on your behalf.

The Obama app shows the way, but in order to grasp it, politicos will have to break out of their mental confinements.

And that, dear reader, is something for another post.

-srbp-

Iceland economic troubles

Odds are you won't hear Newfoundland nationalists speaking too loudly about Iceland these days.

Not so very long ago it was a source of inspiration.

Iceland's prime minister and central bank officials held emergency talks on Sunday to deal with the country's growing economic problems.

That's just the latest effort.

But last week the Icelandic government nationalised Glitnir, one of its largest banks, and a large investment house collapsed. Now Kaupthing, Iceland's largest bank, is the focus of nervous investors, and the Icelandic krona plunged more than 20 per cent against the dollar last week as traders fretted about the implications of the bail-outs.

-srbp-

Whistling past the economic graveyard

The business world in a free market runs so extensively on psychology it's amazing that business schools around the world spend so much time on balance sheets, marketing and business plans.

Psychology is pretty much the reason why western government's responded to the American financial crisis with assurances that "the fundamentals" of the economy are sound.

However, in some instances, the efforts to describe the Canadian economy as somehow able to avoid any consequences of the move toward a recession south of the border became somewhat bizarre.

Take, for example, comments by Premier Danny Williams in an interview with the National Post:

"The fortunate thing about Newfoundland and Labrador and Saskatchewan in today's fragile economy is that our provinces are very, very well-positioned. We have strong economies, a lot of it based on natural resources, but we're going to weather this storm and weather it very well."

Finance minister Tom Marshall told reporters on several occasions that he doesn't see a problem find cash to build the Lower Churchill project. In other news stories, Marshall said he was concerned that lower oil prices would lower government revenues.

The Premier told VOCM listeners on Sunday night that the provincial "economy is growing very well."  That isn't accurate.  All economic forecasts - including the provincial government's own forecasts  - show the province having incredibly modest growth.  Some project the growth this year and next year will be scarcely above 1% and some have forecast growth at one half of one percent.  That is as perilously close to a decline as it can get.

At the same time, European countries are taking action to bail out where necessary and take other actions to avoid repercussions from the American downturn.  Odd is that, given that European countries are not as dependent as Canada generally or Newfoundland and Labrador specifically on the healthy American economy.

Iceland, once touted by some nationalists as a model for Newfoundland and Labrador to emulate, is in serious economic difficulty:

But in the financial world Iceland is now a hot topic of discussion for a different reason: many people suggest that it could become the “first national casualty” of the ongoing credit crunch. Until last year, Iceland’s economic track record in this decade had been phenomenal—its annual growth rate averaged close to four per cent over the past decade, and its per-capita gross national income is now higher than that of the U.S. This year, though, the country’s currency, the króna, has fallen twenty-two per cent against the euro; the economy has stagnated; and a global rating agency has put the nation’s three major banks on a credit watch. Now analysts are wondering whether the new Nordic Tiger will end up, instead, as “the Bear Stearns of the North Atlantic.”

Take, as but one example, an article from the weekend Globe and Mail.  It included this comment one one manufacturer from Newfoundland and Labrador:

Mr. [Lorne] Janes, president of Newfoundland-based Continental Marble of Canada, is already getting the cold shoulder from his customers in Florida, Maryland and California. “The reply I'm getting now is, ‘Lorne, save the phone call, don't call any more until this sorts out,'” said Mr. Janes, whose 12-employee company manufactures equipment to produce moulded stone countertops.

Janes wouldn't be alone.  A Bond Papers post from last July highlighted the extent to which the provincial economy is dependent on exports - especially energy exports - the majority of which heads to the United States. In 2005, the last year for which information is posted online at the provincial government website, 52% of international exports from Newfoundland and Labrador headed to the United States.

As the United States economy slows, the effects on Newfoundland and Labrador will be felt directly and in some instances very strongly:

1. As demand for energy products declines, exports to the United States will also likely decline.  That will reduce provincial government revenue.
2. As the price of oil declines, provincial government revenue will decline accordingly.  If crude oil averages US$87 in 2008, the provincial budget will run into deficit to the tune of about $800 million.
3. Declining commodity prices and lessened demand for minerals, forest products and fish would affect the three traditional major economic drivers in Newfoundland and Labrador.
4. The American credit crunch - and the resulting tightening of capital available for major projects - will affect virtually all the major projects projected for Newfoundland and Labrador:

• The NLRC refinery project is already in serious trouble and may well be dead for all practical purposes.
•  Hebron is not yet sanctioned.  While many believe the project is underway, it is not.  Oil prices, increased costs and tight capital may delay project sanction.
• The Lower Churchill needs $9.0 billion in capital investment, capital which is growing increasingly scarce. The project currently does not have a single power purchase agreement.  PPAs are crucial for securing long-term financing. A decline in revenues from oil and gas developments and mineral production would adversely affect the provincial government's ability to cover the costs of doubling the provincial debt in order to build the project.

The Newfoundland and Labrador economy is not immune from the effects of a serious downturn in the American economy.  As much as politicians are tempted to say something different from that for political reasons, it would be far better to provide people with an accurate picture of the provincial economy and the interrelationship between international events and local economic well being.

The shock of finding out the truth if serious consequences follow will be far greater than if politicians didn't try to whistle a happy tune as they walk towards what - for some economic projects - might well be a graveyard of ambition. That shock will have far greater consequences than what would occur from telling it like it is right now.

-srbp-

Campaign zoo diaries

1. Palin:  One too many pucks to the head.  The Republicans were desperate enough when they nominated Sarah Palin for the veep spot on the Republican ticket.  [Hint:  Despite what it seems, HNGs are not really a big enough demographic to win an election on.]  Now Palin is showing how completely wasted the GOP is, accusing Obama of "palling around with terrorists".

Palin's a self-described hockey mom.  Maybe she's taken one too many pucks to the head.

2.  Dippers lose a dipstick.  Well, another dipstick, as in a candidate they should never have nominated in the first place.  Yeppers. How many is that now?

3.  Not really plagiarism this time.  Stephen Harper says that he cribbed a couple of bits of a Mike Harris speech, but says what he used were "fairly standard" bits of political rhetoric.

Translation:  "If we keep killing staff whenever I screw up there'll be no one left to follow my orders."

-srbp-

Mission Impossible

Before someone gagged Ivan Morgan, he used to write the odd column - at the Herald and the now dead Independent - on local politics.  He offered sometimes pithy observations, sometimes no so worthwhile thoughts.

Then someone laid a hand on his shoulder and told him to stop.

So he started writing about jam jams.

Back in the days when Ivan actually felt free to offer his opinion, he wrote an open letter to Ross Reid. 

This was back in the days before October 2003 when all changed and Ivan it should be allowed was prepared to crown Danny the greatest ever long before the guy had a chance to warm the chairs on the 8th floor.  Ross was doing good work overseas and Ivan felt the need to appeal to Ross' civic sense and ask the guy to come back and help keep an eye on Danny.

So your job...will be to keep a lid on Danny and his merry band. Take the edge off - so to speak.

There's a bit earlier on than that quote where Ivan talks about Tory insiders muttering darkly about Danny's "management style."

Odd how these things slip your mind until they magically appear in your inbox.

Click on the picture, right, and the thing will pop up large enough for you to read.

-srbp-

Wishin' and hopin' and spewin' and sprayin'

Undoubtedly, Scott Andrews campaign took great heart this past week for stories running on CBC and in the Telegram about Fabian Manning and his expense accounts in the House of Assembly.

The race looks tight, according to an NTV/Telelink poll and those two stories might well look like the kind of ammunition needed to push Andrews into the lead.

They might.

But then again, they might not.

Here's why.

Firstly, the race in Avalon appears tight according to the NTV/Telelink poll.  Given the relatively high undecided  - 40% of respondents - it might look like pulling Andrews in front is within grasp. 

However, the undecideds are likely made up of a huge number of Fabe fans who are right now either uncomfortable in saying who they will vote for or who genuinely are hung up about whether or not to vote.

Those people are necessarily winnable for the Andrews cause.

But they have to be won.

And that leads us to the second point:  Andrews hasn't done anything to woo the undecideds. 

Thus far, Andrews has run a flame-thrower of a campaign built almost entirely on attacks straight at Manning.  Andrews has sucked the ABC tit harder than a cabinet minister looking for a new job in the upcoming shuffle.  He's not getting any milk out though because the Family Feud nipple spews only bile.  It's all negative, all the time.

The Family Feud gives nothing to which a voter can attach.

Take a listen to the Morning Show's candidate forum last Thursday and you'll see the point. [Part 1 and Part 2] 

Andrews spent way too much time slicing into Manning personally in a high pitched and grating way.  Who the heck could stand to listen to that for more than a few seconds?

The answer is no one and in the case of Morning Show listeners no one other than the handful of partisan loyalists and the masochists who just take anything political they can get regardless of what it is.

The rest of us would rather have been chained naked at Cape Spear with seagulls plucking out our eyeballs all the while enduring Slim Whitman's greatest hits at top volume rather than sit through one more second of Thursday's racket.

Take a look at Andrews' campaign website.  Look as hard as you want  and you will be hard pressed to find one single reason why anyone should vote for Andrews and the Liberal Party. There are plenty.  Andrews just isn't intent, apparently, on letting on what they are.

Third, if you look at the Manning stories, you have a hard time finding something to get really annoyed at.  In a case where the benchmarks were set by Tom Rideout and Walter Noel, Fabian Manning's handful of travel claims is hardly worth talking about. On top of that he paid back the secret bonus cash.

You don't have to like what Fabian did, but he is by far nowhere near the worst of the bunch, even if you take aside those facing criminal charges. Hey, it's not like even one of Andrews' staunchest supporters hasn't been known to change his mind completely on House of Assembly spending once the local Family head has pronounced on the matter.

How the heck will a Manning supporter react?

Even if Andrews wants to get indignant about Manning's spending, the story is still framed as what not to do.  The Connie vote is suppressed enough;  you can't suppress it more without risking post-traumatic stress disorder up and down the shore.  What's missing is the stuff to pull voters in Andrews' direction.

So far he and his team haven't shown any signs of figuring that out.

Now, their hammering might work.

The odds are against it.  No amount of wishing and hoping based on spewing and spraying has worked very well yet anywhere else.

-srbp-

At least he's got a plan

While the Conservatives race to cobble one together for release on Tuesday and Stephen Harper and finance leprechaun Jim Flaherty do their best Chip Diller impressions - all is well - at least one party actually has a plan to deal with the economy.

-srbp-

Jack's coming back

Jack Layton, whose campaign signs are popping up all over St. John's South-Mount Pearl is coming back to campaign for Ryan Cleary, the guy running in Jack's place.

He'll be in St. John's this Sunday, October 5.

-srbp-

Harper channeled Mike Harris, too

First Howard.

Now Harris.

The press release compares the speaking notes used by Harris on December 4, 2002, which are posted on the website of the Montreal Economic Institute:

"Thinking about things from a new and different perspective is never easy. It takes courage, conviction and the strength to know that in taking a new and innovative course, you are making change for the better. Genuine leaders are the ones who do the right thing."

Two months later, on February 19, 2003, Harper gave a similar address in the House of Commons in response to the Liberal budget:

"Thinking about things from a new and different perspective is not about reading the polls and having focus group tests. It is never easy because it takes courage, conviction and the strength to know that taking a new and innovative course is going to make change for the better. Genuine leaders are the ones who do the right thing."

Holy crap.  It doesn't look like Harper's had an original thought in his life.

-srbp-

Now there's video of the Great Copiest.

Refinery's Euro-backers bailed in '07, law suit alleges

In statement of claim against Altius in the ongoing legal battles over the second refinery proposed for a site near Come by Chance, BAE Newplan Group claims that three European backers of the NLRC project withdrew in 2007.

BAE Newplan is seeking damages, interest and court costs totaling $20,594,224.65 in a dispute over engineering and environmental work done for the proposed refinery.

Later in the statement of claim, BAE-Newplan further accuses Altius of not disclosing key information, including that three European investors had dropped out of the project last year, and that $30 million raised in a share offering by Altius Minerals in November 2007 would be used to construct integral parts for the NLRC refinery.

An earlier suit brought against the refinery company - NLRC - led the refinery proponents to seek bankruptcy protection. Altius is one of the major shareholders in NLRC.

NLRC claimed that the project was suffering financial problems due to the subprime crisis in the United States. It is unclear whether the European investors bailed in 2007, something that hasn't previously  been reported by Altius or NLRC. The three investors are still listed on the NLRC website as of 03 October 2008.

Altius is a financing proponent on the provincial government's proposed Lower Churchill hydroelectric project.

-srbp-

Now will someone start reporting it correctly?

The ABC campaign is a Family Feud.

The Provincial Conservatives are sticking it to their federal brothers and sisters.

That's it.

That's all of it.

-srbp-

Stephane's response to Danny

A simple, well-crafted letter and the missing attachment.

-srbp-

Steamroller!

If the latest NTV/Telelink poll on the race in St. John's East holds true,  New Democrat Jack Harris can start house-hunting in Ottawa and his two rivals can count on not getting their deposit back.

Of the 526 people in the riding polled by Telelink, 52.3 percent said they would be voting for Harris.  Liberal Walter Noel polled 8.7 percent and Conservative Craig Westcott polled 8.2 percent.

Craig shouldn't be embarrassed;  to come from nowhere, hold up the name of an underdog's underdog and tie a former provincial cabinet minister is no mean feat.

Now mind you, Craig had some help from Walter who seems to love setting fire to his own bollocks at every opportunity.

But still.

In the right campaign for the right party, Craig would be electable.  he's smart, knows his stuff and can make the case.

Michael Connors finished the NTV broadcast by wondering if Harris and his crew of New Democrats and Provincial Conservatives would now spend the last two weeks in St. John's South-Mount Pearl campaigning against Liberal Siobhan Coady.

She'd better hope not.

Ordinarily, she's got enough of a lead to win against her nearest rival, the NDP's Ryan Cleary.

If Harris piled on for the last two weeks, there might actually wind up being two orange seats in Newfoundland and Labrador.  None of the Connies would sally to the south since they've already taken a shine to Coady.

But Harris and the Dippers?

They wouldn't have the same hesitation.

Not for a second.

-srbp-

If you aren't depressed, you should be

Richard Raleigh holds nothing back in his assessment of the candidates running in the two St. John's ridings.

-srbp-

Lower Churchill delayed a mere six months?

Energy corporation boss Ed Martin told CBC News that the current market turmoil in the United States could delay the Lower Churchill project by up to six months.

The province will need to borrow billions of dollars to finance the project, and Ed Martin, CEO of Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro, said Wednesday the project could be set back by a few months as he waits for the financial market to sort itself out.

It was hoped the megaproject could get the green light as early as 2009, but with the U.S. economy in turmoil Martin said raising the cash on the open market won't be easy.

"Well, we can be flexible and we will be. We are going to be very strategic in terms of when we go in. If that means that we're going to delay going in for six months, we will," he said.

Just six months?  That seems incredibly optimistic given the apparent magnitude of the economic downturn in the United States. 

Earlier on Wednesday, the Liberal opposition in the provincial legislature raised questions about the impact economic uncertainty might have on the project.

The project is currently in the midst of an environmental review and, to date, no firm power purchase agreements have been made public.

A downturn in the American economy would reduce demand for electrical power, a potential export customer for the project. Likewise a global downturn in the economy would lessen the need for a new aluminum smelter which has been suggested as a potential local development in Labrador.   A global recession in the early 1990s helped to scuttle plans to develop the Lower Churchill at that time.

Tightening capital markets were cited as one reason proponents of a oil refinery near Come by Chance, Newfoundland to seek bankruptcy protection.  Bond Papers took a different view.

-srbp-

Steve and Stock in 2003

From the Wall Street Journal, March 2003, Stephen Harper and Stockwell Day tell Americans their position on Iraq (presumably not stolen from someone else):

Canadians Stand With You

By STEPHEN HARPER and STOCKWELL DAY

Today, the world is at war. A coalition of countries under the leadership of the U.K. and the U.S. is leading a military intervention to disarm Saddam Hussein. Yet Prime Minister Jean Chretien has left Canada outside this multilateral coalition of nations.

This is a serious mistake. For the first time in history, the Canadian government has not stood beside its key British and American allies in their time of need. The Canadian Alliance -- the official opposition in parliament -- supports the American and British position because we share their concerns, their worries about the future if Iraq is left unattended to, and their fundamental vision of civilization and human values. Disarming Iraq is necessary for the long-term security of the world, and for the collective interests of our key historic allies and therefore manifestly in the national interest of Canada. Make no mistake, as our allies work to end the reign of Saddam and the brutality and aggression that are the foundations of his regime, Canada's largest opposition party, the Canadian Alliance will not be neutral. In our hearts and minds, we will be with our allies and friends. And Canadians will be overwhelmingly with us.

But we will not be with the Canadian government.

Modern Canada was forged in large part by war -- not because it was easy but because it was right. In the great wars of the last century -- against authoritarianism, fascism, and communism -- Canada did not merely stand with the Americans, more often than not we led the way. We did so for freedom, for democracy, for civilization itself. These values continue to be embodied in our allies and their leaders, and scorned by the forces of evil, including Saddam Hussein and the perpetrators of the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. That is why we will stand -- and I believe most Canadians will stand with us -- for these higher values which shaped our past, and which we will need in an uncertain future.

Messrs. Harper and Day are the leader and shadow foreign minister, respectively, of the Canadian Alliance.

This comes from a supposedly conservative website, so presumably they just copied as is.  Short, sweet and too the point.  Harper may have cribbed the text of his speech that same month in the House of Commons, but there can be no mistake about the position that Harper and his party (now doing business as the Conservative Party of Canada) took on the need to invade Iraq.

-srbp-

It's Coady in front

The NTV/Telelink poll on St. John's South- Mount Pearl didn't turn up many major surprises.

Liberal Siobhan Coady, who is trying the seat for the third time, is in front with 29.1% of "likely" voters.  New Democrat Ryan Cleary is in second place with 19.5% and Conservative Merv Wiseman is at 11.6%.  Green Party candidate Ted Warren and NL First Party candidate Greg Byrne fall into the "other" category in the poll, and split up 1.3% between them.

Undecided is at 38.5%.  Margin of error in the poll of 550 "likely" voters was plus or minus 4.3%.

Coady polled 35% and 33% of the cast votes in both her previous outings.  That means she's pretty much held on to her vote.

The New Democrats likewise seem to be hanging on to their vote with Ryan Cleary.  Peg Norman, the candidate last time, garnered a share of the vote in the low 20s.

Biggest change came for the Conservatives.  Loyola Hearn polled 40% and 45% of the cast votes in 2004 and 2006.

Fully 70% of respondents said the ABC campaign had no influence on their choice of Liberal or Conservative.

Undecided is very large, but in both the previous campaigns voter turnout was less than 60%.

Finally, voters were asked what issue they considered most important. As in Avalon, social programs rated first at 51.1%; the economy was second at 18.4%.

Equalization was the third issue, at 10.4%.  That's a pretty strong indication that the ABC campaign - which has Equalization at its core - isn't moving voters toward the Liberals and New Democrats.  Rather it has merely served to suppress the Conservative vote.

Unlike in Avalon, which had an equally large undecided population, the clear differentiation among the candidates in St. John's South-Mount Pearl and the absence of an incumbent suggests that the election is Coady's to lose.

She's been running a campaign that appears aimed to appeal to disgruntled Conservatives, although, as in past elections, the economic issues which have tended to be at the forefront of her campaign literature aren't the ones at top of mind for most voters.  A shift in her messaging to emphasize issues that are likeliest to move voters to the polls might help to make her unbeatable.  [Hint:  As in the past two federal elections, the Hibernia 8.5%, the Lower Churchill and Equalization are not the biggest thing on voters' minds.]

Cleary's campaign hasn't dropped literature throughout the riding and the absence of a website and advertising specifically for the riding has made it harder for the New Democrats to push their message to voters in the riding.  They've been relying, apparently on the national effort. That would make it very difficult for Cleary and the New Democrats to develop any momentum by appealing to the undecideds.

There's not much Wiseman could do except pray for some sort of October surprise.

Otherwise, St. John's South-Mount Pearl is going pretty much as the popular wisdom would have it.

-srbp-

Double barreled update - Not one but two e-mails corrected the point about Ryan Cleary not having a website.

He does, and you can find it at ryanclearyndp.ca.  Some will note that Ryan is blogging and find that hysterically funny given his relentless attacks on bloggers, including the claim at one point that he never read blogs.

There are some other points to note.  Cleary has signage which is a campaign standard.  The ones seen by your humble e-scribbler do not have the website addy.  Simple clue:  by putting the addy on the signs, you drive traffic to the website where more detailed information can be found.

Apparently there have been no literature drops in the Cowan Heights/Bowring Park area of the riding. Despite having searched by every means possible, your humble e-scribbler couldn't find the Cleary site.  It seems to have gone live around September 23, judging by the date of the first blog entry. 

Cleary has been knocking doors, however it is hard to hit the entire riding in five to six weeks that way.

Thanks for the corrected information, Dale and Clare Marie. Now that it's confirmed Ryan has a website, we can do the Campaign 2.0 assessment of this election.

If there are any other gaps, keep the corrected information coming.

 

A tight race in Avalon? Dream on, baby

NTV and Telelink released a poll on Tuesday on the race in the federal riding of Avalon.

NTV touted it as showing a tight race, with the Conservative incumbent and Liberal challenger separated by only the margin of error for the poll.

Take a look at the undecided in the poll and you can forget about tight races.

39.9%

Yes, 40 percent of the people surveyed said they were undecided. That's 15 percentage points higher than Fabian Manning got and he's in the lead;  his nearest challenger - Liberal Scott Andrews - racked up something around 21%.

Then look at the satisfaction number for the incumbent, Fabian Manning.  Fifty-one percent said they were satisfied with his performance as member of parliament.

Then recall that Fabian Manning has been on the receiving end of a huge amount of attention as the only incumbent Conservative running in this election. The entire rhetorical weight of the Family Feud sat on his shoulders at one time and even though the Premier has backed off somewhat, there's evidently no love loss between the two.

And everyone knows that.

With all the anything but Conservative messaging out there, anyone who has made a clear choice shouldn't feel the least problem in telling the world that they intend to vote Liberal, New Democrat or even that they won't vote.

The large undecided vote in Avalon is most likely comprised of a large group of Manning voters who are simply uncomfortable with saying publicly what they could reasonably perceive as being an unpopular choice.  In some instances, they might even think that expressing their choice that might invite even more pressure against their guy than he's already felt.

Here's another clue:  when asked about the impact of the ABC campaign on their choice, people who selected a non-Conservative choice (i.e. the Liberals and New Democrats) overwhelmingly indicated (66%) that ABC had no impact on their choice.

That leads your humble e-scribbler to conclude that those Grit and Dipper votes were pretty much shored up any way.

Now it is entirely possible that the 40% undecided contains a huge number of people who just won't vote. That still likely works more in Manning's favour than against him.

As a last point, note that Telelink doesn't probe undecideds to determine any leanings or why they are undecided.  That means any detailed analysis  - including this post - is difficult and any comments are conjecture.

Still, you'd have to believe an awful lot of things to believe that the race in Avalon is actually tight.

-srbp-

A-B-C = D-E-A-D

Some local media outlets have taken to tacking obligatory mentions of the ABC thingy onto stories related to the election campaign even when there is absolutely no logical reason to do so.

Despite that effort to keep the thing alive, Danny Williams' office confirmed on Tuesday that the whole thing is deader than a doornail.

They offered up the "he's too busy" excuse.

Uh huh.

Like yesterday when his jag was in his parking space but he sent Kathy Dunderdale down to meeting with people worried the government is about to issue even more fish processing licenses in a market already grossly oversupplied with fish plants.

Yes, Danny Williams turned down yet another request to  campaign.  That is to do more than deliver a bad speech badly to an audience that has heard it a dozen times already.

At some point, the local newsrooms will figure out the real story here and start covering it.

They can find a hint as to the reasons the ABC thingy is a total fiction in at least one Bond Papers post.

-srbp-