Williams’ shift sends Lower Churchill back to enviro drawing board for second time this year

As labradore has it, the panel conducting the environmental reviewing the Lower Churchill project is asking NALCOR  - the provincial government’s energy company - to submit a raft of new documentation now that the Premier has decided to completely revise the project.

Not surprising.

Not surprising at all.

Nor would it be surprising to find that both the panel and the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency are privately spitting nickels in frustration at the twists and turns they’ve gone through to deal with this project.

Last January, the panel explained to NALCOR that the company’s submissions up to that point didn’t justify the project, as presented.  You got it.  NALCOR could not justify the project.  They also couldn’t demonstrate things like the claimed greenhouse gas emission reductions.  That’s because they don’t have any customers to show how the hydro juice will actually displace fossil fuels used in electricity generation anywhere on the planet.

NALCOR spent eight months  - until August 2010 - revising and revamping stuff, sending it along to the panel and then out to the interested parties for detailed review.

The Innu picked up on the fact that NALCOR and the provincial government were now substantially revising the project – the smaller dam and a whole new transmission routing – and said exactly that in their response filed with the environmental review panel. 

Based on the Premier’s comments at the end of October, the panel had to get the whole thing sorted in order to comply with the panel’s terms of reference.  Specifically, they are asking NALCOR to document:

a.  Changes to the project description, construction (including schedule) and operation;
b.  Transmission interconnection lines;
c.  Changes to accommodation facilities;
d.  New cost estimates;
e.  New socio-economic data and timing, particularly employment, work scheduling approach, labour requirements, goods and services;
f.  Changes to reservoir clearing and impoundment and validity of model results (mercury, flow, ice modeling, etc.);
g.  Harmful alteration, disruption and destruction of fish habitat and implications for the proposed Fish Habitat Compensation Plan;
h.  Potential aquatic and terrestrial impacts;
i.  Traditional land use and Aboriginal issues;
j.  Any other relevant information.

This is going to take another year or two, at least and the whole review is going to get way more interesting. 

The project the panel has right now consists entirely of two dams and a connection back to Churchill Falls so the power can head out through Quebec.  The line to Soldier’s Pond, near St. John’s is entirely within the province so that isn’t part of the federal review. But that’s it.  All that NALCOR is pushing is the same project Brian Tobin pushed in 1998.

Until now, the line to Nova Scotia simply didn’t exist except as a political throw-away line.  Events of the past two months have changed all that.  If NALCOR really intends to ship power to Nova Scotia – as discussed just within the past week -  they will now have to lay that on the table, in detail.  There will also be new interested parties looking for a say in what happens in the line from Newfoundland to Nova Scotia and then maybe in whatever connections will happen in New Brunswick. An already complex project just got a whole lot more complex.

Don’t forget that this project was supposed to be under construction right at this moment.  NALCOR was supposed to sanction it in 2009. 

This latest bad news comes on top of other setbacks and a reminder of the biggest inconvenient truth about the legendary project. Substantial chunks of the Innu community aren’t happy with the project. And if that weren’t enough, an analyst at the Atlantic Provinces Economic Council thinks the province needs to get its fiscal house in order before thinking of adding at least $6.0 billion to the public debt load.

But perhaps the biggest setback of all for Danny Williams’ plan was one entirely of his own making.  After rejecting a proposal to develop the deal with Hydro-Quebec and Ontario Hydro, Williams then spent five years  - entirely in secret - trying to get HQ to take an equity stake in the project. He even offered to set aside his political commitment that he would only sign a Lower Churchill deal if HQ provided redress for the 1969 contract.  HQ just wasn’t interested:  they’d already moved on to other big projects.

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It gets better

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Sign of the future?

The opposition leader makes a splash with a simple call for earlier breast cancer screening for women.

The cabinet minister issues a long-winded news release reciting all the stuff his department is doing about breast cancer.

And it predictably finishes with a recitation of how much money the current administration has spent.

Which one was more effective?

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The importance of staying competitive

The Government of Ontario is creating 75 scholarships aimed at attracting top graduate students to Ontario universities.

Meanwhile, in another province, the university not only faces declining enrolment but also a freeze on funding for graduate students thanks  - apparently - to some management cock-ups rather clumsily spun as a good thing.

On the upside, the provincial government’s research and development corporation announced on Wednesday it would provide funding over three years to support work by eight doctoral, 12 masters and two bachelors students at Memorial University.

“World-class research is at the heart of Memorial University and I’m delighted that 22 of our students have received RDC’s Ocean Industries Student Research Awards,” said Dr. Christopher Loomis, Vice-President (Research), Memorial University. “Graduate students are an essential part of Memorial’s research success. The competitive funding provided by this scholarship program will enable them to conduct research that is important to Memorial University and critical to the future prosperity of the province.”

 

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Smart politics versus not-smart politics

In his battle against Reform-based Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper over Equalization, Reform-based Conservative Party leader Danny Williams didn’t have any political friends left.

Not surprisingly, Williams failed.

Ditto, the family Feud, known to some as the ABC campaign.

Senior political reporter and columnist Chantal Hebert made the point rather bluntly in her column in the Wednesday Toronto Star:

At the federal-provincial table, Williams is ultimately a loner.

You can see that very point as far back as October 2004. Remember the famous storm-out?  Well, let’s just say it had less to do with negotiations and more to do with a potential dressing down from other Premiers who had finally cottoned on to the federal transfer deal Williams was trying to finagle.

By contrast, though, Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall just got Stephan Harper’s Conservatives to turn down a hostile take-over bid by BHP of Potash Corporation.

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Drop-out rate continues 20 year decline

The drop-out rate for Newfoundland young people reached 7.4% between 2007 and 2010, according to Statistics Canada, down from an average of 19.9% in the period between 1991 and 1993.

The rate fell most dramatically in the period between 1993 and 2005 when the rate fell from 19.9% to between 8% and 10%.

That’s also the period when Newfoundland and Labrador eliminated denominationally-based education. Prior to educational reform under the Liberal administrations of Clyde Wells and later Brian Tobin, control of education as divided among seven Christian denominations.

The provincial government eliminated denominational education in 1997 following two referenda.  In the second vote, an overwhelming majority of those holding educational rights voted to abolish the system.

Education has a smaller share of the current provincial budget than it was in 1995.

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“Get fiscal house in order” first: analyst

An analyst with the Atlantic Provinces Economic Council told a conference in St. John’s that the provincial government  “has to get its fiscal house in order” before it makes an investment in any version of the Lower Churchill energy megaproject.

Fred Bergman said the province’s net debt to gross domestic product ratio remains among the highest in Canada at 41%.

Bergman is quoted by the Telegram [page four story, Wednesday November 3, not on line] as saying:

“Get your fiscal house in order, get your debt-to-GDP ratio down, get your budget balanced and then you can afford to tackle something like that.”

The Williams administration ran a half billion cash deficit in 2009 and budgeted for a $900 million cash shortfall in 2010.  Budget projections released in spring 2010 do not include any forecast for balanced budgets.

Finance minister Tom Marshall has previously consistently rejected balanced budget legislation.

In its various configurations, the Lower Churchill project could cost anywhere from $6.0 billion to $14 billion.

The following charts show the provincial government’s liabilities and net debt.  The vertical axis is in millions of Canadian dollars.

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Related:  “The Fragile Economy: staying the course”

NL offshore drilling ban decision rests with prov gov #oilspill #cdnpoli

The federal government couldn’t impose a ban on offshore drilling in the Newfoundland and Labrador offshore area unless the provincial government agreed, according to briefing notes for the federal natural resources minister obtained by PostMedia.

Under the 1985 Atlantic Accord, such a decision would require the agreement of the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador. A federal-provincial agreement with Nova Scotia contains similar provisions.  In the absence of such an agreement, the Government of Canada has reportedly entered into informal talks with other coastal provinces where offshore drilling could take place.

Newfoundland and Labrador is also different from other provinces in that its provincial jurisdiction does not end at the low water mark.  Under the 1949 Terms of Union, the provincial government governs the same territory as it did prior to Confederation. Court decisions have upheld the view that this extends to three miles offshore, the territorial sea limit recognised internationally in 1949. As a result, the provincial government in newfoundland and Labrador has exclusive jurisdiction on offshore drilling within three miles of the shoreline.

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Related:  Drill, baby!  Drill! – Dunderdale rebuffs concerns about border, offshore oil spills

Keith Coombs: financial genius

Ah, friends, it seems like only yesterday that Keith Coombs wanted to be deputy mayor of St. John’s.

And what, pray tell, was one of his most outrageous claims?

In his campaign ads, Coombs says the city is expected to have an annual surplus of $11 million for each of the next four years, for a total surplus of $44 million, and that he wants the money to go back to the taxpayers.

Voters must have had a premonition that Keith was full of crap.

Turns out that $11 million surplus next year will be a five million dollar shortfall. 

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Being too negative

cbc.ca/nl takes a look at negativity and local politics in a report by provincial affairs reporter David Cochrane and a commentary by Randy Simms.

They are both worth checking out if for no other reason than they raise issues that are worth considering and worth debating.

A couple of quibbles:

First, negativity of this type isn’t something new.  In the current local version, this penchant for attacks goes back about a decade.

Second, Randy Simms is in the right neighbourhood when he mentions the recent mid-terms in the United States.  Politics in this province for the past decade or so demonstrate the very effective use of American political techniques  - including an ideological element - on a local level.  The lines used are similar to ones employed elsewhere in Canada, provincially and federally, and in the United States. While they use paid advertising in other places, here the slagging is done using other vehicles. 

When you are done with the video stuff, pop over to the Telegram and check the Wednesday editorial.  It points out the hefty price the Williams administration paid for a recent decision about a Facebook comment:

Why? Well, ask yourself what the circulation numbers are for one person’s Facebook page. Maybe hundreds; sometimes, thousands. In Pardy Ghent’s case, 1,109. 

Then, ask yourself this question: what’s the combined circulation of the Canadian Press, Yahoo News, MSN.ca, Troy Media, and the Reuters news service, just to name a few?
All of those sites carried the story of Pardy Ghent’s firing, under the not-so-pleasant headline “Facebook flap over Danny Williams’ penis.” 

It made newspapers and websites across Canada and the United States.

It even made the website of the India Times, half a world away. 

Yep — Skinner took a small fire, and unsuccessfully tried to put it out by pouring on the largest amount of gasoline he could find. 

Ignoring the status line would have made the whole thing a 15-second wonder that reflected far more poorly on Pardy Ghent than on anyone else. 

Instead of a handful of people shaking their heads, there are now thousands. Well done.

Two additional points:

First, the Telegram’s account of costs don’t really go far enough.  The CBC news stories and all the comments on this issue that are circulating under these and related media stories point out the extent to which negativity is now an issue that can cut the ruling Conservatives at least as sharply as it cuts anyone else.

Going negative this early definitely has its costs.

Second, Shawn Skinner didn’t do this on his own. Well, odds are he didn’t.  Like Kevin O’Brien, he was likely following orders.

Take out of all that what you will.

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*edits for caps, spelling and sentence structure

Stop bullying

Rick Mercer (via CBC NL)

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The October Traffic - Horrorshow

14,113 visitors up from 12,500 the month before.

20,039 page views.

Despite the drop in air temperature, October was a hot month at Bond Papers.

You might be surprised at what all those people were reading.  Here are the Top 10 posts for the month,based on the number of visitors:

1. Court docket now online
2. Williams announces political exit plan
3. Campaign Sign, Two
4. Municipal affairs minister passes away after lengthy illness
5. Campaign signs:  Outrage
6. Best Political Blog in Canada! Right Here!
7. The weight of office
8. When the rubber meets the paper mill
9. Jane Taber – Twit
10. Air Canada, the Maple Leafs and Sucking

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Anger Management: Conservative version

Former premier Roger Grimes makes some solid observations in the Tuesday Telegram about the idea of building Muskrat Falls on its own, as the latest iteration of the Lower Churchill goes.

“It makes ... absolutely no sense to finance the smaller part of the project that, of and by itself, can’t make any money,” he said.

What’s way more interesting in the current context, though, can be found in the comments section. 

Just note the number of comments, likely all Conservative partisans, attacking Grimes personally for having the temerity to offer an opinion. Notice how many of them appeared before 8:00 AM.  That is some serious anger-management issues going on there, people.

As you read the comments – if you can stomach them – remember that this is polling month.  As usual, people in the province are being treated both to an orchestrated series of happy-news announcements.  But what makes this month stand out is the connection to the assaults by the Fan Club. 

The Fanboys.

The Greek Chorus.

The Pitcher Plants.

The last time this crew deployed in such an organised and indignant manner was when some people dared to notice that the Premier had heart surgery. Their anger is aimed, not surprisingly at Liberals and if reporters step into the line of fire the media will be added to the list.

Anger  - and we are talking some major-league bile here - aimed at liberals and the news media.

Sounds just a wee bit familiar.

Dontcha think?

It gives a whole new meaning to the term anger management.  The real question, though, is will the strategy that worked before continue to work just as well the next time.

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Lower Churchill: more potato, potato

Sometimes really interesting things crop up in two stories about the Lower Churchill. 

Take for example, the likelihood of a deal with Emera to run a power line to Nova Scotia.  There’s a Canadian Press story dated November 1 that says this:

The head of Nalcor Energy won't say whether the Newfoundland and Labrador Crown agency is close to inking a deal with Emera Inc. (TSX:EMA) on the proposed Lower Churchill hydroelectric project.

Then there’s a CBC story dated November 1 that says something else:

Hydroelectric power from a proposed project in Labrador could reach the Maritimes within five to six years, Ed Martin, president of Newfoundland's Nalcor Energy, said Monday.

That five years obviously wouldn’t start today because as of 2010, the project is still bogged down in an environmental assessment.  Still, Ed didn’t give a probably projection on that.  It could – entirely fantastically  - be pumping juice in five years;  odds are though that the project would not be pushing electricity a decade from now. 

Premier Danny Williams recently told a gathering of the province’s Reform-based Conservative Party that a deal to develop one dam was possibly very close.  Ed Martin, the head of the province’s energy corporation told reporters in Halifax this week that  - from the CBC story – "[t]ime will not drive us. It has to be right."

Hmmm.

Potato.  Potato.

Tomato. Tomato.

Maybe the whole thing’s off. 

Maybe the whole thing’s on.

Maybe the whole thing is half on, and half off, go-it-alone and with partners simultaneously.

Surely you’ve noticed that since 2005 this project has gone from doing it alone to doing it with partners to doing only a bit of it with partners and still nothing has happened after five years of endless public posturing.

Oh yes, and five years of secret talks, in addition to the public talking about it.

And the price, meanwhile is still $6.5 billion for the smaller dam and a bunch of expensive transmission lines.  That was the original price for two dams and a line to Quebec. The whole thing could actually cost as much as $14 billion.

But that’s not the end of the flippin’ and da floppin’.

Danny Williams told his Conservative followers that the line to Nova Scotia would be a sweet way to reject Quebec after all their slights, real and imagined, over the years.  According to CBC, Martin said that shipping all that power means NALCOR needs a line to Nova Scotia in addition to a line that runs through Quebec.

"If we are going to move the kind of volumes we're talking about over the 50 years, we've come to the conclusion we need both routes."

And in leading up to that comment, Martin restated one of the ideas your humble e-scribbler floated, just so he could refute it:

"With respect to that question of is it something that we're using it from a leverage perspective, the answer is no,"

Still, though, if Ed Martin actually had a deal or was really close to one, he’d be announcing it rather than talking about all sorts of scenarios and possibilities.

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Federal briefing note cautions against #oilspill speculation

A briefing note prepared for federal natural resources minister Christian Paradis describes the potential impact an oilspill offshore Newfoundland and Labrador from one of the existing fields.

The note describes projections about impacts of an oilspill as risky since they are speculative. Nonetheless, the briefing note – obtained by Canadian Press under federal access to information laws – does give some idea of what might happen in a “non-trivial” spill:

The note says a “non-trivial” spill could leave oil in the water for weeks or months and much of it likely wouldn't be recovered. But little-to-no oil would likely wash up on Newfoundland's shores, and most of it would drift eastward and disperse in the Atlantic Ocean.

Sea birds might not be so lucky. The document says “it is likely that oil from a large blowout offshore eastern N.L. would cause substantial and significant seabird mortality, due to these species' extreme vulnerability to surface oiling.”

Fish might survive, but the fishery would likely be affected:

“This could have an economic effect upon the fishery enterprises involved. ... There is also the possibility that market perceptions could be affected for fishery products caught over a wider area than that actually affected by oil.”

Okay.  So this is speculation and, as the briefing note suggests, the minister should avoid speculation.  That’s actually good advice and someone should have fed the minister some better talking points.

Someone should have fed better lines to Premier Danny Williams and Kathy Dunderdale, too.  Both not only speculated on potential scenarios, they downplayed the potential impact of a spill.

And of course, neither the federal nor provincial Conservative politicians mentioned the possible impact of a “non-trivial” spill in some places offshore but not quite so far out to sea.

Like say in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.

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Thin-skinned or what?

It’s the “or what” you need to think about.

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Rumours of his demise…

Ted Sorensen, Kennedy advisor, White House speechwriter, lawyer, author and Democratic activist is dead at the age of 82.

Rumours of his demise, as noted in a post at Regret the Error, circulated previously.  This time they proved true.

The New York Times obituary described Sorensen’s role for President John Kennedy this way:

He held the title of special counsel, but Washington reporters of the era labeled him the president’s “intellectual alter ago” and “a lobe of Kennedy’s mind.” Mr. Sorensen called these exaggerations, but they were rooted in some truth.

Kennedy had plenty of yes-men. He needed a no-man from time to time. The president trusted Mr. Sorensen to play that role in crises foreign and domestic, and he played it well, in the judgment of Robert F. Kennedy, his brother’s attorney general. “If it was difficult,” Robert Kennedy said, “Ted Sorensen was brought in.”

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Lower Churchill: Tshakuesh leads quiet resistance to the Old Man’s Dream

Elizabeth Penashue is opposed to development of the Lower Churchill. 

She is concerned about what it will do to the environment and what the changes to the river will mean to the environment and to the Innu people who have lived in the area for centuries.

As she put it last year in a letter to The Labradorian:

A lot of people understand why we walk. We don't want the dam like they did before to Churchill Falls many years ago. We lost so many things back then, we lost hunting areas, and so did the white people, not only the Innu lost, other people lost too. They lost the same. The biggest thing we lost, were the burial grounds. This was the most important thing that we lost. If they make another dam what else will we loose? The river will die, and all the stuff around the river, trees, and the animals and fish. And the peoples hunting areas will be ruined.

We walk, women and children together to send a strong message that we will not give up. We are strong and we want to be respected and listened to. It is for the future of our children that we are doing this for!

While some people east of the over pass might have been pre-occupied with other things last week, listeners to Labrador Morning caught an interview with Elizabeth Penashue with host Cindy Wall (CBC audio file: October 28).

Penashue is a respected elder in the Innu community. Each fall for the past 13 years, she has walked the 80 kilometres from Happy Valley-Goose Bay to Gull Island to raise awareness about the impact Lower Churchill development will have on her people.

In the interview, Penashue talks about some of the people who have walked with her, including busloads of school children brought out each day.  She also talks about the food she enjoys and about the tent prepared for her by family members and other sin the community when she arrived at Gull Island.

More than many southerners may realise, Penashue represents a powerful political voice within the Innu community that cannot be ignored. Claims made a couple of years ago about an agreement on land claims and development, for example, proved to be so much hot air.  Penashue’s principled opposition carries great weight in itself and serves as the focal point for others who share her concerns.

Elizabeth Penashue is one of the reasons why any claims that a Lower Churchill deal is imminent or that the project may start soon are just so much hot air. The so-called New Dawn agreement vanished not long after the provincial government made a great noise about it. 

What blew the deal away, was not a mountain of hot air bigger than the blast that brought it.   It was the soft voice of a woman who walks 80 kilometres every fall and who will keep walking 80 kilometres until she can do it no more.

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Elizabeth Penashue’s Blog:  elizabethpenashue.blogspot.com

Before I’m gone I want to see some change, I want to help my people and teach the children. I don’t want to see my children lose everything—I know we can’t go back to how things were, but I don’t want them to lose their Innu identity, culture and life.

Moms say the darnedest things

The big front page story on the Telegram this Hallowe’en weekend is a story about the chow served to the guests at the Lakeside Hilton, the century old and then some prison that is the centrepiece of the provincial government’s correctional system.

Her Majesty’s Penitentiary.

The piece is called “Dining in at HMP”. The front end of it is a summary of a piece in the Toronto Star that compared local prison fare with that of the jails operated in the Greater Toronto Area.  The rest of it is a summary of the menus served at the Pen  garnished with quotes as fluffy as the mashed spuds that sit on the inmates’ plates next to the roast beef au jus or fresh Atlantic salmon.

The story is not front page fare by any means and it is only marginally less front page-y than the piece underneath.  That one comprises reminiscences by former managing editor Bill Callahan of the time he was a provincial cabinet minister back in the days when the last personality cult seized the good people of the province in its steely grip.  Incidentally that was long before anyone taped keys on walls at newsrooms, but that is to digress. Perhaps it is time for the powers that be over at the Telly to start re0running old Ray Guy columns from around the same time.  If the Mother Corp can recycle Chez Helene or Quentin Jurgens MP surely there is value in 45 year-old humour that is still relevant and savagely funny today.

Anyway, your humble e-scribbler’s mother inadvertently captured the gravitas of the Telegram’s front page Saturday evening with a dinner table comment she meant in all earnestness.

I saw that headline, she said, pointing to the paper over on a table in the living room.  “Dining in at HMP”, she read.  I thought that was going to be another Karl Wells food review.

At that, the family took a break from dinner to clean the shepherd’s pie off the walls.

Spit-takes can be messy.

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Hansard editor pens unique parliamentary novel

 

The blurb for this novel by the former editor of Hansard at the House of Assembly says it all:

Verbatim: a novel is a hilarious and scathing exposé of parliamentary practice in an unnamed Atlantic
province. Dirty tricks, vicious insults, and inept parliamentary procedures are some of the methods members use to best represent their constituents.

Infighting about petty matters within the staff of the legislature is captured by Hansard, its recording division, complete with typos unique to each correspondent. But when the bureaucrats begin to emulate their political masters, the parliamentary system’s supposed dignity is further stripped away.

Jeff Bursey reveals how chaotic and mean-spirited the rules behind the game of politics are, and how political virtue corrupts everyone. Verbatim is an inventive and blackly humorous work that speaks to the broken parliamentary practices found across the country.

About the author:

“Jeff Bursey has worked for Hansard in Atlantic Canada for seventeen years, first as
a transcriber, and then as an editor. Born in St. John’s, Newfoundland and currently
living in Charlottetown, PEI, Jeff has only ever lived on islands.”

What others are saying:

“Jeff Bursey has written a clever, highly innovative and highly readable novel about Newfoundland, specifically modern Newfoundland politics. The satire is sharp, sometimes hilarious, the language perfectly suited to the subject.“-- Wayne Johnston, author of The Colony of Unrequited Dreams.

Bursey’s work also enjoyed a very favourable review in the Winnipeg Free Press.

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New book by city councilor Frank Galgay

St. John’s city council Frank Galgay has a new book out this fall, just in time for the holiday season.

Here’s a chunk of the blurb from the Flanker Press website:

“The glory days of sailormen come alive in the pages of Rocks Ahead! as Galgay revisits the old northern channels where seafarers defied death at every turn.  These past few centuries, many have perished in the bitter Atlantic waters, while others have found hope among the ruins. The 30 stories within these pages span the years between 1704 and 1944. They recapture some of the most awesome and terrifying voyages any captain has ever seen, including the heroic rescue of the crew of the Merry Widow, the oil spill off Mistaken Point from the SS Rotterdam, the SS Grampian’s fatal collision with an iceberg, and many more exciting tales of doom and deliverance.”

Rocks ahead is in bookstores now or by mail from Flanker Press.

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The Rally for Sanity and/or Fear

From Forbes online comes the story of how the Rally for Sanity and/or Fear started:

“Right after I made the post, some other reddit [sic] guys created the Colbert Rally web site,” Laughlin told me in an interview. “That inspired all of the Facebook groups.”Although growing on the web at a fast pace, the idea existed in its infancy across multiple fan pages across Facebook as support for Laughlin’s conception of a rally, but no immediate plans to make it happen. “Colbert’s staff was on a week-long break when the post first went crazy. Me and other Reddit users were brainstorming ways to get the show’s attention.”

After some Googling around, Laughlin discovered that Colbert sat on the board of directors for online charity DonorsChoose.org, where donations can be made to one of multiple charitable projects chosen by the donor (hence the name). “We thought that if we could get a bunch of Reddit users to do a big charity bomb,” having thousands of users donate money simultaneously while others publicized the cause behind the mass donations, “we could get his attention.”  attn.  [sic] In the first 48 hours, over $200,000 in donations were made.

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Best Traffic, October 25 to October 29

1. Williams announces political exit plan
2. Best Political Blog in Canada.  Right Here!
3. Lower Churchill:  What Danny actually said (with translation)
4. Cleary quits as federal NDP candidate
5. Knuckle-dragging council pissed off at hard-working recyclers
6. NALCOR:  the power of nostalgia (Part 2)
7. Emera silent on Lower Churchill talks
8. Court docket now online and Five years of secret talks on Lower Churchill:  the Dunderdale audio [tie]
9. NALCOR:  the power of nostalgia
10. Insider baseball and Kremlinology 27:  Going negative early has its risks [tie]

This is the week of big news.

Danny talked up the Lower Churchill and the possibility of a deal.  That could be the signal he is ready to take a walk. A whole bunch of Lower Churchill stories crowded into the Top 10 this week, including the story the conventional media refuse to report (tied at Number 8).

Sir Robert Bond Papers took first spot in the Canadian Blog Awards for Best Political Blog for 2010.

Ryan Cleary, long touted as the NDP dream candidate to win a second federal riding in the province decided he would pack it in and go back to writing.  Some are speculating the Indy may be coming back.  The website’s had the login screen for months and the Indy is still deader than Cleary’s political hopes.

Besides, Atlantic Business Magazine is looking for an investigative type and Cleary just finished writing a few puff pieces for them.  Maybe that’s the fit.  ABM already picked up the best scribbler at the old Indy:  Stephanie Porter so the Indy’s second death already produced the best benefit it could for ABM and its able crew.

This is the week that Bond Papers traffic took a massive leap.  On top of that, weekend traffic has been matching weekday traffic for the past three weeks or so. 

That’s very odd.

Normally, weekend traffic drops to a low as 50% of the average weekday load regardless of whether there’s new material or not.

Maybe people sense that this is going to be a hot fall for news.

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Update: Added a couple of missing words, put in caps where they belonged,, added some italics where that belonged and added a new para [Starts with “Besides…”]

Book launch for first-time local author

Jill Sooley grew up in Mt. Pearl, NL. She enjoyed a successful career in public relations first with the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, and later, at a boutique public relations firm in midtown Manhattan. She currently resides in Long Island with her husband and children. The Widows of Paradise Bay is her first novel.

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Kremlinology 27: Going negative early has its risks

Newfoundlanders and Labradorians can be forgiven this week if they thought they’d entered the savage world of American politics complete with its intense and highly orchestrated personal attacks.

While the 2011 provincial election campaign has been underway since last spring, the provincial Conservatives went negative this week with a pre-emptive attack on the Liberal party.  The pretext for the attack was the opposition office’s new communications director, Craig Westcott.

Conservative leader Danny Williams was characteristically blunt in justifying both the attack itself and the violation of the province’s privacy laws by the release of an e-mail Westcott wrote to the Premier’s office in February 2009.

I did feel it was important that the people of the province know who they’re dealing with and what they’re dealing with when this man is now an integral part of the official opposition in this province.

The task of leading the attack went to Kevin O’Brien, recently promoted from a low-level portfolio to the slightly more demanding job of municipal affairs. O’Brien noted the idea as well of letting people know what  - supposedly - they could expect from the Liberals:

It's sad really to see the Opposition take that path because what I see is a fellow that can't even contain himself with regard to expressing that hatred."

These statements stand out because they characterise something that had not occurred.  Both Williams and O’Brien drew attention to what they considered Westcott’s personal “hatred” for the Premier. 

Westcott has been characteristically blunt in his criticism of Williams, but his comments have been typically not as personal as Williams presents them.  And sure, Westcott made plain  - before he started the job – that he was concerned about Williams’ impact on politics and the potential the Williams’ Conservatives could win all 48 seats in the provincial legislature.  But at the point O’Brien mentioned the e-mail, the opposition itself hadn’t gone anywhere near negative.

Interestingly, Westcott described Williams accurately in 2007:

it's impossible to avoid being negative about a leader who is so negative himself, especially about his critics and some of the people who try to do business in this province.

And Williams and his crowd took great offense at anything and everything Westcott said.  For his part, Westcott released a raft of e-mails with Williams’ communications director at a time when Westcott published a local newspaper and couldn’t get an interview with Williams. Westcott ran for the federal Conservatives in 2008, largely as a personal gesture in reaction to Williams’ anti-Harper crusade.  One of the consequences is that CBC stopped using him as a commentator after the election.

That isn’t just background for the most recent shots in an ongoing personal feud,  nor does it suggest that both sides are equally guilty of anything. Westcott started his new job on Monday morning.  On Wednesday, the Conservatives launched the assault. Until then, there was nothing other than the known animosity between Westcott and Williams. The point to note is that the Conservatives characterised what Westcott and the Liberals would do in the future. 

But that prediction – and all the negative implications – are entirely a fiction created by Williams’ Conservatives.

Going negative isn’t something new for Williams.  He likes the ploy and has used it on everyone from Stephen Harper to a previously unknown lawyer named Mark Griffin.  Around the same time Westcott sent the now infamous – and previously private – e-mail, Williams labelled Griffin a traitor.  Williams also started a lengthy battle with the Globe and Mail over a column that speculated about Williams’ possible motives in expropriating assets from three private companies in central Newfoundland.

Nor is it the first time Williams has tried to put words into someone else’s mouth.  in the most famous episode cabinet minister John Hickey sued then opposition leader Roger Grimes for defamation.  The case quietly disappeared because Hickey sued Grimes not for what Grimes said but for what Williams attributed to Grimes.

The provincial Conservatives are a tough and effective political organization.  They bring message discipline and zeal to the table. On top of that they have an army of enthusiastic sock puppets who will fill any Internet space and radio talk show with pre-programmed lines. Going nasty and negative is second nature to them.

The curious thing about the episode is that Williams could easily have waited until the first lump of mud came hurling his way. 

But he didn’t.

He sent O’Brien out as his crap flinger, first.

Taking the first shot, going negative in this way, this early in a campaign would be a risky venture in any case in Newfoundland and Labrador. Most voters aren’t engaged in politics and the overwhelming majority aren’t thinking about the election yet.  Local politics is anything but the highly competitive, ideologically-divided wasteland of the United States. People don’t like taking the battle-axe to the heads of their neighbours and friends. 

Politics can be competitive, but heavily negative campaigning doesn’t bring any great benefits.  Going negative early carries a risk of alienating people from the Conservatives and from politics generally. And it’s not like Williams has a surplus of voter support he can afford to tick off with negative campaigning.  He won in 2003 and again in 2007 with about the same number of votes, about the same share of total eligible vote.  That’s because Williams’ voters consist of a core of traditional Conservative supporters plus a group of voters who have voted for other parties, usually Liberal, in the past.  

For someone with Williams’ reputation, however, there is the added danger that yet more relentless negativity will affect his own support. Voters may not be able to stomach a full year of his highly concentrated political bile on top of the seven years they’ve already witnessed. Even Conservatives have been known to revolt against Williams’ diktats.  In 2008, Conservatives in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl voted heavily for the New Democratic Party, despite the fact that four prominent cabinet ministers campaigned for the Liberal. In other ridings, they just stayed home in response to Williams’ personal anti-Harper crusade.

There are signs that voters, generally, in some parts of the province are discontented if not slightly cranky. Williams’ Conservatives have already started trying to mollify concerns over some issues. Public money is flowing freely in announcements about spending for new outdoor basketball courts or cassettes for x-ray machines.  A news conference heralding a new case of DVDs or a packet of screws can’t be far behind. 

The provincial Conservatives have also telegraphed that they are worried about voter attitudes toward the party, generally. Maybe it wouldn’t take much to see the sort of rejection of the Conservatives that happened in the Straits and White Bay North spread to other districts along the northeast coast and other parts of central and western Newfoundland and into Labrador.

In a sense, going negative early suggests the Conservatives are particularly sensitive about any prospect that a resurgent Liberal Party might be able to capitalise on voter discontent. It reinforces the idea that Williams’ personal smear of Marystown mayor Sam Synyard had more to do with a fear of political rivals than anything else.

In the insider baseball world of political reporting in this province, this week’s drama about an e-mail and a communications director may looks like one thing to some people.  But if you look more closely, another picture may appear.

No matter what, the next 12 months could bring some of the most interesting political developments in years.

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Outside the Overpass Update:  The Overpass is to Newfoundland and Labrador politics as the beltway is to American federal politics.  In that light, consider this e-mail from the province’s other daily that puts the week’s game of insider baseball in perspective:  “Get back to work”.

Going negative this early has its risks.

Cleary quits as federal NDP candidate

Ryan Cleary won’t be carrying the New Democratic Party banner in the next federal election.

Cleary ran for the party in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl in 2008, lost, took up a job as a talk show host, quit that gig supposedly because he wanted to spend more time with his family and then sought the Dipper nod in the same riding almost immediately afterward.

Perhaps he expected a quick election call.

Cleary posted a note on his blog:

I wish to advise the constituents of St. John’s South-Mount Pearl that, effective Oct. 27th, I resigned as NDP candidate for the federal riding, and as a member of the party — severing all affiliation. I’ve written several articles in recent months for publication and hope to write more, which creates a professional conflict. You cannot be a politician and a journalist — it’s one or the other. I’ve chosen to return to journalism, my profession of almost 20 years. I would like to say a sincere thank you to the people who have supported me politically. It’s been a humbling and eye-opening experience, and my passion and drive will continue to be directed towards the betterment of Newfoundland and Labrador.

No word yet on a possible replacement for Cleary.

Several recent converts might make good candidates.

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St. John’s Planning – town hall meeting, October 30

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Contrasts 2: Quitters

When it was someone else in the Premier’s Office:

[Williams] also said the agreement in principle [on the Lower Churchill] fails to address the Upper Churchill deal.

"The Upper Churchill power project must be the most lopsided agreement ever signed in the history of Canada," Williams said.

While prominent Newfoundlanders have urged that any Lower Churchill deal address the Upper Churchill, Williams said Grimes views them as separate entities.

"I don't accept Premier Roger Grimes's position," Williams said.

"It's something you would expect to hear from quitters and we are not quitters."

And once the Old Man got the job:

The Premier has gone to Quebec, and gone to Premier Charest, and, y’know, we’ve had Nalcor visit, y’know, Hydro-Quebec, I’ve been meeting with ministers and so on, and we say to them, OK, y’know, we’ll set the Upper Churchill to one side. But, y’know, let’s sit down and have a talk about this Lower Churchill piece.

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Contrasts

There is the series on NTV’s evening news this week featuring Yvonne Jones. The Liberal Party leader is fighting breast cancer. She allowed NTV to follow her through part of that experience.

This is not something most of us would do, under any circumstances.  Jones did, however,  and in the act of openness has given people a chance to see an aspect of her that is quite different from the clips on the evening news or the sterile quote in the paper.

The segment on Wednesday night featured a group of women, some of them breast cancer survivors themselves.  They came to support Jones as she shaved her head before starting chemotherapy. Even if you did not know any of the women, you could not help but be moved to the brink of tears.

There was a prayer chain made up of sheets of paper containing messages for Yvonne.

Jones held up a blanket knit by a group of women at a church and told about it and where it came from.

There was a picture of her cheerleaders.

Here was a woman taking the first step along a very difficult journey.  Difficult is not even the right word for it.  Truth be told, unless you have faced such a thing as cancer, it’s hard to know what word is right.

Other words come to mind, though, from watching the segment. Red faces.  Cracking voices. Trepidation.  Hugs.  Prayers. Fear.  But at the same time compassion, optimism, and laughter that seemed to make all those other things  - if not disappear  - then seem not quite so enormous.

An experience that can only be singularly personal transformed in all its dimensions through camaraderie.

Some people lead by saying: “Follow me!”

Others say: “let us go this way together.”

Life is full of contrasts.

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Insider baseball

What is interesting to people on the inside is often of no interest to people outside.

That idea, in a great many more eloquent words and with a bunch of other ideas, may be found in this 1988 article by Joan Didion.

Some people will get this.

Most will not.

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No House sitting until December

The House of Assembly won’t be sitting until December and, as a result, it likely won’t sit much more than a dozen days.

No word on why the House is being delayed so long. 

Maybe the Premier’s Office is a wee bit preoccupied replacing all the carpets chewed up since last week.

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Best Political Blog in Canada! Right here!

The votes are in.

The tally is done.

And Sir Robert Bond Papers is the Best Political Blog in Canada for 2010!

Thanks to all those who clicked their fingers to the point of osteo to make this possible.

Imagine what could have happened if the Premier’s Own Clicking Team decided to get behind this blog and vote their little hearts out as they do over at VO massaging Question of the Day results.

All jokes to one side, this is something that will proudly go on the masthead.  In the five and a half years or so since BP started, there are times when it has been an effort to keep going.  What does keep one typing away is know that there is an audience out there  - consistently bigger than some local independent newspapers enjoy or enjoyed - that finds something of value in these e-scribbles. This award reflects their continued support and interest and for that, they have one humble e-scribbler’s eternal gratitude.

Now it’s back to the daily job of ensuring SRBP is deserving of that recognition.

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Lower Churchill: what Danny actually said (with translation)

From the text of Danny Williams’ speech to the provincial Conservative convention:

And of course, also looming large on the horizon right now is the development of the Lower Churchill project.

Right now, we are in discussions with Emera Energy and the folks in Nova Scotia who are anxious to be our partners as we move forward.

Imagine how exciting a day it would be if we could see that power avoid Quebec altogether and use the power ourselves or send it our neighbours in the Maritime Provinces and New England states. And it could happen my friends - just wait and see!

[BP:  How nice of Danny to tell you how other people are feeling.  He’s done this before and it turned out to be complete nonsense.  The most important words here are the verbs:  “would” and “could happen”.   It could happen but then again it could not.  And yes it would be exciting, if it happened.  Then again it wouldn’t be exciting if it didn’t.]

With this potential new and mutually beneficial partnership with Emera Energy which builds upon our existing partnership with them on our recall power from the Upper Churchill, we are embarking upon an exciting journey that has never before been seriously contemplated and pursued by those seeking to develop the Lower Churchill.

[BP:  There’s that conditional language again:  “potential”.   Of course, the idea of selling power to the Maritimes is as old as the Lower Churchill itself.  Most of what Williams seems to be doing here is thinking inside the box of what happened when he worked at the House of Assembly in the 1970s. It was very seriously contemplated back then, but abandoned.  Incidentally, remember about the claims that turned out to be total crap?  Well, there’s another one

We are saying "thank you Quebec, but we simply do not need you to develop this project". We are going to bring that clean, green power down from Labrador to the island and then sending power across to Nova Scotia.

[BP:  Funny but that just rings hollow in light of the news  - still unreported by any conventional news media - that Williams spent five frackin’ years trying to convince Hydro-Quebec to take an equity stake in the Lower Churchill, with redress for the 1969 contract put “to one side.”  It’s hard to get beyond the idea Williams is just talking this up to soothe his jangled nerves over last year’s series of Churchill Falls embarrassments or to replay Joe Smallwood’s 1964 strategy.]

Ultimately, some of the power could also end up going into New Brunswick or the hungry United States market as Emera has assets in Maine as well.

[BP:  Hungry?  Interesting choice of words given that the province’s energy corporation hasn’t been able to interest a single one of the hungry mouths to buy a morsel of the Lower Churchill food.  Now Hydro-Quebec on the other hand…]

How about that folks? Our power developed and managed by the people of Newfoundland and Labrador and sold to market for the first time in history without having to beg Quebec for a piece of the pie!

[BP translation:  And if they’d accepted the secret deal without redress, I’d be standing here kissing French ass.]

This partnership with Emera would be based on another previously untested development option, and that is a phased development of the project. As you know the Lower Churchill River system is comprised of Muskrat Falls with 824 megawatts of power and Gull Island with 2250 megawatts.

[BP:  There’s that conditional language again:  “would”.  One of the reasons why people didn’t think of phasing with the small dam first is that the first dam can’t really generate the cash to pay for the huge transmission infrastructure and make cash at the same time.]

Our discussions with Emera and Nova Scotia would result in a partnership that would see us proceed with the development of Muskrat Falls first. The power from Muskrat would be used to help us displace expensive, dirty power from Holyrood which in itself justifies the project, and then the remainder would be sold to our partners in Nova Scotia and beyond.

[BP:  Displace isn’t the same as shut down entirely, is it?  That’s good because there is no plan to close Holyrood.  And as such it doesn’t justify the multi-billion project in itself.   It sure doesn’t justify the project when you have plenty of juice on the island to meet anticipated need without spending all that cash we don’t have.]

By using the Lower Churchill power here in the province, we will be able to provide stable rates for generations to come and an appropriate return to the treasury.

[BP:  Ratepayers will enjoy stable rates anyway, without the Lower Churchill.  If Williams builds his legacy project taxpayers will likely be saddled with prices that are much higher than the need to be.  The environmental assessment panel already told NALCOR that their submissions don’t justify building the Lower Churchill using exactly the same rationale Williams just used.  he knows that yet he is sticking to the same old – disproven – line.  makes you wonder what he is really up to.]

We would share the transmission with willing partners, unlike those in Quebec.

[BP translation:  Yeah and I’d be kissing their asses if only they’d have let me.  And thank heavens nobody remembers April 2009 when I cut a deal with Hydro-Quebec. ]

The larger Gull Island development would be a separate phase to follow, and would provide opportunities to attract industry to Labrador, should commercial partners be prepared to provide appropriate economic benefits.

[BP translation:  We could use the power for any company that would be foolish enough to come here knowing I’d expropriate their asses back to the stone-age just because  I woke up one morning without enough wood to finish the job. And frig AbitibiBowater too while we’re at it.]

Needless to say, there are still details to be worked out before and if a final agreement falls into place. But we are extremely excited about the prospects of developing this project in a way that brings real and meaningful benefits to the people of the province, to our partners and to our customers.

[BP translation:  That’s about all we have to get excited these days – the idea that something might possibly happen at some point down the road.  Anyone got any other conditional language?  I’ve used all mine up]

Of course, it is never over til it is over but we are cautiously optimistic that we will be able to announce something sooner rather than later.

I am hopeful that with your support we can finally see this project get off the ground.

[BP translation:  If by something “we” mean just enough to let me get the frig out of here permanently.  Put a few bucks in the retirement coffers when we have the going away party.  In the meantime, keep the Citation turning and burning, boys.  We’ll be wheels up before you know it.]

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Knuckle-dragging council pissed off at hard-working recyclers

Put aluminum cans and other recyclable beverage containers on your front doorstep in some parts of St. John’s and they’ll be gone before morning.

The aluminum fairies are busy.

Think of it as a form of curb side recycling.  These hard-working men and women have been trekking the streets since the provincial government introduced the beverage-deposit system to encourage recycling. Why they do it is of no concern.  The fact is that they have helped to cut down on the amount of garbage in our city.

And they’ve been doing it for years.

Rain, sleet or snow.

The same years that the knuckle-draggers at city council resisted running a curb side recycling program altogether.  Sure they had money for other stuff:  Wells-Coombs memorial money pit.  Cruise ship junkets.  Council was willing to spend other people’s money  - yours and mine, that is - on anything, by the bagful.

But something like recycling that is fundamentally part of what the city should be doing. anyway?  Too expensive, supposedly.

And so it fell to the people some affectionately call aluminum fairies to do what the crowd downtown would not bother to do.

Now some people are complaining about the aluminum fairies.  And some other people are trying to figure out ways to stop the aluminum fairies from plying their chosen trade. Plenty of crap-talk has been tossed around as well, likening the people who collect beverage containers to gulls or suggesting they are all people on social assistance. Hardly socially progressive talk, one would think, but definitely indicative of the bigoted attitudes held by some people in this town.

The only obvious reason is that the knuckle-draggers at city council have been counting on people tossing out beverage containers so that the city could pick up some spare change.  But that would just cut into the legitimate business of a whole bunch of people who are not – as city council clearly is – a bunch of johnnies-and-janes-come-lately to being environmentally responsible citizens of an otherwise stinky planet ee-arth. 

They may be grubby compared to the tonier lot at Tammany at Gower but at least the aluminum fairies work hard for their nickels.  And it would be exceedingly bad form for the crowd on council to do anything but change the recycling program they’ve started up to allow the aluminum fairies to do their business unhindered.

Chuck the stupid blue bags, for starters. Next time Doc O’Keefe can spare a moment from gallivanting around with cruise ship folk or hobnobbing at the local Connie convention, he might try hitting up his Conservative confreres for a few bob to supply the good folks of St. John’s with blue boxes. 

The colour should be appealing to their Connie sensibilities, for starters, so they should look favourably on the idea. And as for the cash, the provincial Conservatives have bags of it, thanks to the beverage recycling program. Blue boxes are also a damn-sight better than the blue bags, as well, since they make it easier for residents to put all their recycling in one container.

With a blue box at the curb, the fairies won’t have to make a mess to get at the stuff they are interested in.

But fines or tickets? 

Forget about it. 

There’s not a city councilor in St. John’s fit to look on one of those people shoving a shopping cart full of cans and tetra packs around our streets let alone shag with their work.

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NALCOR: the power of nostalgia (Part 2)

From Jason Churchill’s paper on Labrador hydroelectric development for the Blame Canada commission, a few paragraphs on Lower Churchill development (numbers are for footnotes in original):

The story of the attempted development of the Lower Churchill River begins in September 1972 when BRINCO, using the Upper Churchill model, made a formal offer to the Moores’ government to develop the Gull Island and Muskrat Island sites. The Moores’ administration refused to accept the idea of being tied into a long-term contract with Hydro-Quebec. In 1974, after two years of failed negotiations, Moores decided to nationalise the CFL Co. portion of BRINCO. (45)  Nationalisation was presented as a matter of principle; government needed control over resources in order to mould the province’s future. At a cost of $160 million, nationalisation of BRINCO was an expensive exercise in political philosophy. The key argument underlying the move was that the public interest of the province could differ from the private interest of the company. However, Section 9(5) of the 1953 BRINCO legislation prevented the export of any power without the explicit consent of the government.(46)

A former Conservative member of the Moores’ administration, the Honourable William Marshall, considered the initiative to have been a great mistake as it “compounded the mistake” of the 1969 power contract. While costing an enormous amount of money, it did not improve the province’s bargaining position. Marshall stated that the only thing accomplished was provincial money being used to buy out private shareholders. Each year, the province continued to pay the interest on the money borrowed to finance the deal while the Lower Churchill remained undeveloped.(47) The measure failed because Newfoundland and Labrador’s core problem of access to markets without terms being dictated by Quebec remained unchanged. 

By the mid-1970s, negotiations had become increasingly complex due to inflationary pressures, the energy crisis and the overt inequities of the 1969 Churchill Falls Contract. In February 1975, after lengthy negotiations, the federal government committed to provide $425 million towards a $1.842 billion Gull Island project. While issues related to electrical transmission were not secured, the federal government was illustrating a strong willingness to provide financial assistance to Newfoundland and Labrador. However, by August 1975, inflationary pressures had forced the cost of the project up to  approximately $2.318 billion. As a result, the Newfoundland and Labrador government had to order a complete re-examination of the project and associated costs. (48)

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Emera silent on Lower Churchill talks

From Canadian Press:

HALIFAX - Halifax-based energy company Emera Inc., is declining comment on whether a deal is imminent with Newfoundland's Nalcor Energy on the proposed Lower Churchill hydroelectric project in Labrador.

…

Emera spokeswoman Sasha Irving will only say that talks are ongoing with both Newfoundland and New Brunswick on an energy link.

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NALCOR: the power of nostalgia

Via labradore comes a copy of the 1978 ad used to push the idea of selling Lower Churchill power to Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island.

Next up:  NALCOR invests in a pet rock factory.

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Williams announces political exit plan

Danny Williams always said that building the Lower Churchill was the only thing he wanted to do before leaving politics. He took a huge step down that road in 2006 when he rejected other options in favour of the supposed go-it-alone strategy.

With no markets and no money for the project, and with setback after setback in the environmental and land claims fronts, the odds were slim he could achieve that dream.

Slim odds, that is, until this weekend. Williams told provincial Conservatives he is trying to lure Nova Scotia and Emera  into a deal to build a greatly scaled down version of the project.  That confirms he is trying to cut a deal so he can leave politics.

The Telegram reports that:

The agreement would develop the smaller of the two parts of the project — Muskrat Falls — first and work towards the larger part — Gull Island — later on.

If the deal comes to fruition, Lower Churchill power would travel from Labrador to the Island part of the province first, to eliminate the Holyrood generating station.

There are more than a few problems with that proposal as the Innu Nation pointed out in a recent submission to the environmental review:

• the capital cost of Gull Island includes the costs of the 230/735 kV switchyard (est. $130M), communications infrastructure (est. $70M) and other costs associated with construction of the first of the two projects – these costs would need to be borne by Muskrat Falls if it is constructed first;
• cost savings, such as reuse of the construction bridge and construction camps, and staged mobilization from Gull Island will no longer be available to Muskrat Falls and must be added to its capital cost (est. $50M total);
• construction costs at Muskrat Falls could potentially increase for other reasons as a result of Gull Island not being in place during construction, including costs for larger diversion facilities and cofferdams (est. to be determined);
• based on the information in Table 23 of the Supplemental Report, the capital cost of Muskrat Falls is $2682/kW compared to $1902/kW for Gull Island meaning that it has a lower rate of return and will generate less cash flow; adding an estimated $250M to the capital cost of Muskrat Falls results in an estimated capital cost of $2985/kW.

On top of that, the residents of eastern Newfoundland would wind up bearing most of the costs for power they actually don’t need.  There is no plan to shut down Holyrood, as NALCOR has already acknowledged publicly, so the power isn’t needed to displace the diesel generators at that plant. Still, taxpayers would left paying for it.

And even if NALCOR did shut down the Holyrood diesels, the 2008 seizure of hydro-electric assets owned by three private sector companies coupled with the shutdown of the Abitibi mill at Grand Falls meant that NALCOR has more than enough generation to meet existing and forecast demand already. They just don’t need the juice.

It gets better. Weak electricity prices coupled with the front-end loading of capital on on Muskrat Falls would likely mean power sent to Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and the United States could only sell at heavily discounted prices. Even Muskrat Falls power at a break even price would likely be too expensive for the markets to bear.   That’s an old and fundamental problem with trying to sell Labrador power so far away from Labrador.

No problem for NALCOR, these days. Thanks to changes made to the Electrical Power Control Act in 2006, the Hydro Corporation Act, the Public Utilities Act,  and government policy, NALCOR wouldn’t suffer any losses. The company can export all the discounted power it wants  knowing that the people of Newfoundland and Labrador will wind up paying for it.

As for a federal loan guarantee mentioned in the Telegram story, the Premier can look forward to a truly sweet deal. In 2006, federal Conservative party leader told Premier Williams that a federal Conservative government would consider joining in the project in the same fashion as Hibernia.  That would mean only one thing:  an equity stake. What a massive climb down that would be to go from attacking Stephen Harper as a kitten-eating alien to welcoming him in on the Williams Legacy Project.

None of that would actually matter if Williams was planning to stay in Florida permanently before the next election, though.  He need only announce a memorandum of understanding with Nova Scotia and Emera to give him the excuse he’d need to go wheels up on the private jet. His successor would get the job of negotiating a deal.  And if the whole thing fell apart, Williams could just point to his successor and shrug.

If Williams is close to any sort of announcement on the Lower Churchill it can only be part of a plan for him to exeunt stage right, tout de suite. 

Well, that or this is just another part of Williams’ revival of the 1964 ploy conveniently timed for polling month. That could be another version of something BP noted in another post:

Interestingly enough, the rumour started to sputter a couple of weeks ago with talk of an impending Lower Churchill announcement in November.  Those of us who’ve been following the latest saga of the Lower Churchill didn’t see anything obvious on the horizon.  The environmental assessment process is bogged down with  significant problems. There are no markets and no money and the provincial government itself can’t afford to backstop the $14 billion project all by its lonesome.

Anyone who seriously thinks this is exactly what the Premier announced is in for a rude shock.

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Almost immediate update:  Added reference to rumour about polling month from earlier post.

Will Danny expropriate?

Talks between Vale and its Voisey’s Bay union broke down again on Saturday.

This is after Premier Danny Williams tried to be “the voice of reason” on Friday.

Will Danny expropriate? 

Well, he’s undoubtedly desperate to find a foreign demon to distract attention coming into an election year. It wouldn’t be too hard for Williams to cast Vale as another foreign multi-national attempting to use local resources without properly compensating the resource owners. He could even posture as a great defender of unions.

The mine has a huge market value and – unlike Grand Falls-Windsor – the provincial government would have an easy time unloading the mill or operating it profitably as a Crown corporation.  Heck, revenue from the mine could pay for the Lower Churchill.

And, also unlike the old AbitibiBowater properties, there are no stinking environmental messes to expropriate by accident.  There may be environmental problems but nothing that should hold up the expropriation or even cause the province’s New Democrats to lose a wink of sleep.

Much would depend on whether or not Vale had a legal angle under NAFTA.  If the company can’t find a way to sue, then stripping the company of its mine and the smelter project at Long Harbour is a pretty simple affair for a government with such a commanding presence in the House.

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Quoteworthy

“Blogging’s like sex cos: to do it well u need to do it frequently, really enjoy it and take careful note of feedback.”

Tweet by Paul Waugh, deputy political editor at the London Evening Standard, quoted in a post at Left Foot Forward.

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Gordon Pinsent reads Bieber

In case you haven’t seen this yet…

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Plain English: he’s a bully

As the province’s Reform-based Conservative Party gathers in St. John’s for its annual rally, the editor of the province’s major daily assesses its leader in the plainest English yet used in the conventional media:

So, are you fighting for the little guy when you deliberately use your power and position to insult and belittle any opponent, or are you just another bully?

How long is this going to go on, and who else is the premier going to tag as a traitor or a nothing or a zero?

Here’s my opinion — this kind of behaviour is petty and childish and an abuse of power.

He’s more than willing to sit as judge and jury over the rights of ordinary citizens to speak their minds. Let’s hope he’s not looking for the third part of that triad.

It’s now only a matter of time before the pitchfork and torch mob take to the Internet and elsewhere to denounce this kind of penetrating insight into the obvious. 

That’s not to diminish in any way Russell Wangersky’s comments.  He’s right on every point of the editorial.  What Wangersky said long ago became obvious to a great many people in the province.

It’s just to say that seven years in, Danny Williams can count on unquestioning support and public defences of him from all quarters in the province, including  - scarily enough - some newsrooms. 

Whenever their god is challenged, they’ll set fire to the heretic in a moment.

And right now, Wangersky just nailed his theses to their front door.

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Related: The video that has turned out to be a minor Internet success.

 

Outrage

Unromantic Traffic, October 18-25

1. No Dawn gives another Lower Churchill setback
2. The rent is too damn high
3. Court docket now online
4. Priorities
5. Guaranteed Annual Income
6. Bond Papers needs your vote
7. Tom Rideout meets the Bride of Frankenstein
8. More Showboat!
9. New Dawn without Light
10. Showboat!

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