08 November 2012

We get the message just fine, Jerome #nlpoli

“No, I don’t think that we have done a great job of communicating this,” natural resources minister Jerome Kennedy told the Telegram editorial board last week.
“I can give you a couple of examples myself that I’ve done. One is, ‘No debate! No debate!’ Then a week later, ‘OK, let’s have a debate now.’ That’s not good communication.”
The Telegram editorial on Wednesday then mentioned the provincial government’s general message to critics of the Muskrat falls project.  The editorial paraphrased it as “You’re all idiots, you don’t know what you’re talking about and you’re all wrong.”

Okay.

A bit of an exaggeration, but not much of one.

With all due respect to the newer, calmer Jerome Kennedy, the provincial government doesn’t have a communications problem.

Muskrat Falls propaganda a no-brainer #nlpoli

From the latest issue of the Irish Loop Post, Craig Westcott’s editorial “You won’t strain your brain reading government’s last minute batch of Muskrat Falls propaganda.”

There is more to read in a Victoria’s Secret catalogue than Nalcor’s electricity demand forecast, according to Craig.

07 November 2012

Numbers and stuff #nlpoli

Most of you are likely dissecting the American presidential election or hopped up to talk about the House of Assembly.  Well, there’s plenty of time for that.

Consider this post a minor diversion, more about the backstory than about the discussion of what just happened.  We’ll get back to some new and more involved subjects on Thursday.

06 November 2012

Thy Redeemer Liveth #nlpoli

Tuckamore Capital made a single political donation during the 2011 general election.

The company gave $1500 to Keith Hutchings, who ran for the Conservatives in Ferryland.

Dean MacDonald is president and chief executive officer of Tuckamore Capital.

In 2011,  MacDonald was being courted behind the scenes to take over the leadership of the Liberal Party from an ailing Yvonne Jones. 

At the time, Jones denied it publicly, as reported by CBC.  The same CBC story quoted MacDonald as saying that “as a Liberal I will be helping Yvonne in any way I can in terms of candidates, fundraising and all the things that go on with an election.”

The Tuckamore donation occurred during the campaign. 

-srbp-

Cost Per Vote: General Election Years #nlpoli

Last winter we took a look at the idea of cost per vote.  Basically, you compare the amount of money a campaign spent with the number of votes it got.

It’s a way of measuring the efficiency of a political campaign.  The lower the number, the more efficient the campaign is.

Here’s a chart showing the cost per vote for the three major parties in Newfoundland and Labrador in the four general election years 1996, 1999, 2003, and 2007.  The calculations added the annual contributions for each party and the specific contributions for each general election during the year of the general election and divided the sum by the number of votes cast for each party.

The chart doesn’t include 2011 since Elections NL hasn’t released the annual contribution figures for that year yet.

05 November 2012

The Mystical Lords of Mu’skr’at Fa’alls #nlpoli

The water management controversy flared briefly at the end of last week thanks to Geoff Meeker’s blog at the Telegram and a couple of interviews by the 2041 Group and Nalcor’s Gil Bennett.

This is one of those issues where a lot of people either tune out early on because it appears highly technical and complicated.  Actually it isn’t.  The topic only appears complicated.

It only appears complicated because of the very convoluted, long-winded, and very unhelpful way the cats at Nalcor talk about the water management agreement.  They go all techie.

Once you get a handle on the whole water management thing, it’s quite easy to understand and it’s quite easy to see where the possible problems are.

Kathy Dunderdale, give-aways, and the resource curse #nlpoli

Ontario has been interested in Gull Island since at least the 1990s.  We didn’t need Kathy Dunderdale to say that again as part of the advertising show she is mounting before finally admitting Muskrat Falls is a done deal.

As recently as 2005, Dunderdale and her friends turned up their noses at Ontario’s offer to help develop the Lower Churchill at no cost to local taxpayers.  The result: No development.

Instead of building the Lower Churchill for export  - profit for taxpayers -Dunderdale and her friends are forcing taxpayers to empty out their public bank accounts of billions in oil savings and then borrowing billions more in order to give cheap electricity to multi-billion dollar mining companies. Then those same taxpayers will pay themselves back through their electricity rates over the course of 50 years.

Whoever could imagine such a ridiculous idea?  Especially in a province where the overwhelming majority of the population pays very little, if any, tax.  

The Fifth of November returns once more #nlpoli

“I know why you did it.

I know you were afraid.

Who wouldn't be?

… There were a myriad of problems which conspired to corrupt your reason and rob you of your common sense. Fear got the best of you, … .

He promised you order, he promised you peace, and all he demanded in return was your silent, obedient consent.”

-srbp-

04 November 2012

The Disney Empire Strikes Back #nlpoli

Lots of anguish and lots of humour attend the news that George Lucas has sold out to Disney.

A sample of the fun:

And another:

disney star wars meme

-srbp-

02 November 2012

Water Management Controversy Hits Nova Scotia #nlpoli

Okay so the locals might call it Information Boring, but CBC’s morning Halifax radio show took a look at Muskrat Falls this week.

The interviewed Dennis Browne from Group 2041 on Wednesday.  The next day they came back with a discussion of the water management controversy.

Here are links to the audio files:
-srbp-

Windy #nlpoli

Anyone with half a clue knows that you cannot develop a reliable, efficient electricity system built on type of generation only.

You need a mix so that the advantages of one type offset the weaknesses of another.  All hydro is hard to do if you need steady supply because it tends to vary with the water flow.  Wind is even worse for that.  Oil and coal are good for steady supplies but they tend to be expensive, dirty or both.  Natural gas is very cool, especially these days, because not only is there lots of it but it is very inexpensive and can deliver electricity pretty much on demand. 

Only in Newfoundland and Labrador do we have access to trillions of cubic feet of natural gas already found, trillions more likely to be discovered, and a provincial government that doesn’t want to develop it because the natural gas is not expensive enough to use. 

Labrador Mines and Muskrat Falls #nlpoli

One of the things everyone is learning this week is that a consultant who accepts all the assumptions Nalcor used to arrive at its conclusion in the first place will -  inevitably -  reach the same conclusions.

Some people will think that the second report proves that the first conclusion was right.

Unfortunately, such is not the case.  It merely means that – inevitably –such an approach will repeat the same mistakes, errors, and flaws just as readily as it might get something right.

Think of it as a case of GIGO:  garbage in, garbage out.

01 November 2012

Creature from the Black Lagoon and other stuff

creatureOh, man they have got a Creature from the Black Lagoon in development at Moebius.

It might not hit the shelves until January 2013, though.

-srbp-

C.H.U.R.N #nlpoli

The first day of a new month and Premier Kathy Dunderdale is continuing to set new records of turn-over in the senior ranks of the provincial public service.

It’s been a mere two weeks since the record-setting 40th change in a single year.  On Thursday, Dunderdale added five more:
  • a new deputy minister in advanced skills and training, who previously was the DM in education,
  • promotion for an assistant deputy minister in advanced skills to the post of associate deputy minister in the same department,
  • an acting deputy minister in education,
  • a new assistant secretary to cabinet for social policy, and,
  • a new assistant deputy minister in child youth and family services.
Note that two of those will open up the chance for further changes.  The acting DM in education will need to be replaced or confirmed.   The ADM for social policy will vacate and ADM job in health and community services on November 7.

SRBP forecast that Dunderdale was on track for 49 changes at the senior executive level before the end of 2012.
-srbp-

Muskrat Potpourri #nlpoli

-srbp-

King Kop. Kennedy Kop. #nlpoli

Expect to hear a lot more in the next couple of days about a comment Jerome Kennedy made on CBC Radio’s Crosstalk on Wednesday.

The reason is that back in the spring Kennedy said this to CBC about the opposition parties and debates:

"The problem right now is that I'm not sure these opposition parties are going to provide quality debate on anything," Kennedy said at the time.

Now his tune is different:

…And at that point, I was more critical of critics that I am today," said Kennedy.

"And I became very open to the debate as a result of the PUB's failure to make a decision."

31 October 2012

Calculators #nlpoli

Nalcor’s new marketing website for Muskrat Falls includes a little feature that supposedly shows you what your electricity bill will be with and without Muskrat Falls.

Even though you will pay for Muskrat Falls until at least 2067, they only show the comparisons out to 2030 on the new calculator.

So try a monthly bill currently of $200.

According to Nalcor, your monthly electricity bill with the Marvellous Muskrat will be $268 in 2025.

In 2010, they gave an estimate out to 2040 using a bill that was $200 in 2017.  On that basis, your monthly bill in 2025 would be $208 in 2025.

That’s a huge difference.

But ya gotta wonder why they changed the way they presented the numbers.  It just makes an already confusing situation – for many people – all the more confusing.

Most people aren’t really worried about the costs that far out in the future. They are more concerned with more immediate costs, like say the impact on their taxes or money they’d rather spend on health care but will now have to devote to paying for an enormous dam up in Labrador.

All the same, looking at the comparison charts.  The monthly savings aren’t all that great.  Even in 2030,  you’d be saving less than $50 a month.  Nalcor’s total estimated savings over the 14 years between 2016 and 2030 is only $3811. 

That’s $272 a year, on average.  What’s everything else going to cost in 2025 or 2030 if oil is going to be at the sorts of prices Nalcor assumes?  Besides, on the front end of that period the costs are almost identical.  There’s no comparative advantage to switching until well into the future.

Maybe all that is a bit too esoteric for some people.

Just look at the numbers.  Some people are going to conclude  - likely incorrectly - that in a mere two years, the monthly cost for Muskrat Falls for the ordinary consumer appears to have jumped $60 a month.  Once someone gets that idea in their heads,  even if it is completely wrong those $50 a month in theoretical savings way off in the future are going to seem like what they are today:  nothing.

-srbp-

The DG 3 Dog and Pony Show #nlpoli

Big Show.

Room full of people all there because they have a direct interest in the project.

Live streaming by the news media.

And all to release the latest cost estimates for Muskrat Falls.  The show was so big, however, that it looked like someone had decided to puff the whole thing up to make it appear much more important than it was.

That turned out to be a fairly accurate impression.

30 October 2012

Getting ready for the onslaught #nlpoli

Some things to bear in mind as the provincial government starts its latest information offensive on Muskrat Falls:

  1. These aren’t “final” numbers.  Whether it’s a government phrase or a media invention, the idea that these numbers are “final” is dead wrong.  The DG 3 numbers are nothing more than the latest cost estimate, plus or minus 30%.  We won’t know the final numbers until a decade or more from now.
  2. We already know why Nalcor didn’t look at alternatives.  As it looks from CBC’s report, the provincial government spent a chunk of cash to repeat what we’ve already heard from Nalcor – they didn’t look at alternatives to Muskrat Falls to generate electricity for use within the province.  When Nalcor suddenly changed the Lower Churchill project objective in 2010 (from export to domestic use) they should have gone back to DG1 and started from scratch.  That should have included a series of comparisons of alternatives. They didn’t do that.  Instead, they sailed through DG 2.  Nothing has changed.  They still haven’t looked at alternatives.
  3. Check for how much information they release about the federal loan guarantee.  The provincial government’s story has morphed over the past couple of months:  at one point the guarantee would be done.  Now we are supposedly getting a range of possible options. 

Overall, don’t expect to see any new information from the provincial government.  Their objective is not to inform or persuade. Their goal is to plough through the next couple of weeks in the hope that they can get the Muskrat off their political backs.

This has been a done deal since 2010. 

Claims to the contrary are complete foolishness.

-srbp-

29 October 2012

The Self-Inflicted Wound #nlpoli

When did the companies involved in the Hebron project sanction it?

Anyone?

Don’t google it.

When did ExxonMobil and all those companies give the project team the green-light to start building the gravity base and all the others bits that will lead to oil production on the fourth field offshore Newfoundland and Labrador?

Sanction. 

The green light.

No?

Darin King and the Tory Charm Offensive #nlpoli

A couple of the exceedingly small changes in the recent cabinet shuffle came out of the Bill 29 fiasco.  Felix Collins went from the relatively low profile job of justice minister to the complete obscurity of intergovernmental affairs.

Everyone saw that.

And over in another corner, there was a switcheroo people didn’t notice quite as much.  Jerome Kennedy gave up the job of directing Government business in the House so that Darin King could take over.

There was no doubt Jerome had completely frigged up in the House, just like there’s no doubt the Tories are way down in the polls.  The two went hand in hand all last session and indeed, for most of the last year or more.

Darin King offers no chance of changing that.

27 October 2012

Moebius’ Skipjack

Here are some views of Moebius’ 1/72 scale USS Skipjack held together with green painter’s tape. 

Skipjack was the first nuclear-powered hunter killer submarine using the teardrop hull design that optimised underwater performance.  Skipjack and her sisters were the fastest submarines in the US Navy until the arrival of the Los Angeles class boats in the 1970s. They remained in front line service until they were decommissioned in 1990.  

The navy rushed its first two ballistic missile submarines to sea by modifying the Skipjacks and redirecting some of the parts to what became the George Washington class.  A cut in the hull, the addition of about an extra 130 feet, 16 missile tubes and some other structural changes and the Americans had a working launch platform.  Unfortunately, they could be as noisy as hell. 

Ambitious modellers could convert this kit to a George Washington.  The easier conversion would be to build a GW after its conversion from a missile carrying submarine.  The navy chopped out the missile sections  and stuck the bow and stern back together.  The end results as a Skipjack with the old fairing around the sail that led up to top of the missile section left in place.

The picture quality isn’t great but for those interested in these things, it will give a sense of the size of this kit.

skipjack side

The front of the box says the kit builds to 40 inches.  The back of the box says 42 inches.  The back is right.  That’s a 48 inch level in the foreground and while you can’t see it clearly in this picture, the submarine will be 42 inches almost exactly from the tip of the bow to the point at the end of the five-bladed screw.

Here’s another view from the top:

Skipjack vertical

The hull is split into four sections fore, aft, top, and bottom.  The sections are bagged and wrapped in soft plastic to prevent scratches and dings in shipping. The entire kit is packed into a box 22 inches long. This facilitates shipping and helps to keep the costs down.

The surface detail is finely molded with slightly recessed lines.  There is a waterline molded into the upper hull.  This mars the finish toward the bow where it cross the upper sonar array but you can fix that with a skillful application of some putty.  Fore and aft of the sail, you will find all the hatches marked, included the main access hatches as well as the ones covering the mooring cleats and bollards.

On the sail, most of the batches appear to be outlined, including the two main hatches that open onto the dive planes.  These were used when in port as easy access to docks, as well as for observation and mounting armed watches (guards).  None of the hatches are open so if anyone wants to do so, they’ll have to scratch build the interiors behind them.

The kit includes markings for all Skipjack-class submarines, including Scorpion. 

Out of the box, the kit builds as a submarine in its launch configuration and paintjob.  The two buoy hatches on the topsides are to be painted international orange.  That isn’t correct for an operational submarine.  you’ll have to do some research to decide how you want to paint your submarine.  If you hunt around, you can find some very useful advice on weathering, especially for the anti-fouling red on the lower half of the hull. 

The screw is the original five-bladed design.  The Skipjacks received seven bladed screws during refits in the early to mid- 1970s in order to correct a noise problem.  No biggie. If you build Skipjack from the box and change the paint scheme, you will get an historic ship from the time she sailed into Murmansk harbour and reputedly sat submerged a mere 30 or 40 metres off the end of a busy pier and watched goings-on in one of the old Soviet Union’s major naval bases.

-srbp-

26 October 2012

Muskrat Falls Trends #nlpoli

Just for the fun of it, here is a graph of the frequency of searches for the term “Muskrat Falls” in Canada since November 2010.

MF searches canada

According to Google the numbers on the graph represent the number of searches for the term relative to the total number of searches.   The numbers are not absolute values but are scaled and normalized.  To get an explanation of that check out Google Trends’ help section.

Aside from the peak in search activity right at the beginning, the most intense searching has been within the past couple of months.  Interest didn’t seem to ramp up on the project until the fall of 2011 except for a couple of brief periods that seem to coincide with when the House was open.

If you limit the search to just Newfoundland and Labrador, you get a fairly constant level of searching.

MF trends NL

The letters mark relevant news stories.

-srbp-

25 October 2012

From wonderment to bereavement #nlpoli

The decline in the quality of public life in our province over the past decade is matched by a decline in other places across Canada and in Ottawa.

For those who may not have noticed some of the commentary on this here are three pieces worth considering:

-srbp-

The Business Case for Muskrat Falls #nlpoli

All sorts of business people in Newfoundland and Labrador love Muskrat Falls.

Funny thing is that they don;t talk about risk, profits, cash flows, return on their investment, and other stuff you’d expect business people to talk about. 

Nope.  They say stuff like “We believe in good things for our province.”

Who doesn’t?

They say things like “… we believe we have the courage to harness the opportunity before us and make these things happen.”

So that started the old gears turning in your humble e-scribbler’s old noggin.  What would it be like if they listened to a business pitch for Muskrat Falls just the same way that Nalcor and the provincial government is pitching Muskrat Falls?

Let’s not get distracted by alternatives and public utilities board and megawatts and all that.  Let’s just talk about making the old staple product in business school:  widgets.  And just for the sake of convenience, let’s make the pitch to the province’s greatest living businessman, the Old Man Hisself.

24 October 2012

Muskrat Falls – The Importance of Transparency #nlpoli

Nalcor will install new generating capacity at Portland Creek in the mid-2030s despite having about 1200 gigawatt hours of  electricity available from Muskrat Falls.

In his latest assessment - Muskrat Falls – The Importance of Transparency [scribd pdf] -  JM concludes that Nalcor apparently plans to build Portland Creek  at additional cost to consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador in order to keep capacity available at Muskrat Falls to meet the commitment to Emera.

23 October 2012

Peckford Book Signings #nlpoli

Because some people have asked, here is a list of upcoming book signing opportunities by Brian Peckford for his memoir Some day the sun will shine and have not will be no more.

Check the Flanker Press site for more information on the book, including how to order.

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

2PM - 5PM
Costco, St. John's

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

6PM - 9PM
Gander Co-op

Thursday, October 25, 2012

1PM - 4PM
The Book Worm, Gander

6PM - 9PM
Gander Co-op

Friday, October 26, 2012

1PM - 4PM
Shoppers Drug Mart, Lewisporte

6:30PM - 9PM
The Bookmark, Grand Falls-Windsor

Saturday, October 27, 2012

1PM - 3PM
Island Treasures, Corner Brook

4PM - 6PM
Coles, Corner Brook

-srbp-

When engineering becomes imagineering #nlpoli

Nalcor issued a news release on Monday to correct inaccurate statements about the water management agreement between Nalcor and Churchill Falls (Labrador) Corporation.

Sounds good, except that Nalcor didn’t identify who made the statements.

Nalcor didn’t indicate hat the statements were.

Nor did the company indicate how the statements were inaccurate.

So basically, the company corrected nothing about nothing.

While that is telling – Nalcor claims aren’t backed by evidence -  that’s not the interesting thing.

22 October 2012

The Separated at Birth Comparison


Mark Quinn, the guy who reports the news on CBC.


Stuart Bloom, the guy who owns the comic book store on everyone’s favourite show.














-srbp-

Hydro’s Problem Questions #nlpoli

As the Telegram reported on Saturday, the Public Utilities Board has suspended consideration of Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro’s 2013 capital works application.

The company is having trouble answering a couple of questions.

Here are the ones that are causing problems.

One fine Friday afternoon, or change versus more of the same #nlpoli

A little over a week ago, Kathy Dunderdale told the provincial Conservative annual meeting that her administration is overspending. Dunderdale acknowledged yet again what she and her predecessor have admitted since 2009. 

The provincial economy is overly dependent on offshore oil, Dunderdale told her fellow Tories.

Dunderdale and the Tories are at historic lows in the polls for a majority Tory government.  Dunderdale announced a cabinet shuffle to her caucus months ago and to the public weeks ago.

After weeks of waiting, Dunderdale finally changed her cabinet on Friday afternoon.

19 October 2012

Stephen Harper and Principle #nlpoli

Premier Kathy Dunderdale, from her unscripted speech at the Tory party annual meeting, via the Telegram’s James McLeod:

We didn’t support the Harper government, people of Newfoundland and Labrador didn’t. You know, somebody who didn’t have principle could’ve walked away from the commitment to the loan guarantee. What would the consequence have been? We wouldn’t elect anyone for a long time to that party? He didn’t, he absolutely maintained his commitment to the people of this province. You’ll see what that means in the next couple of weeks, but it’s hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars. He didn’t have to do it, but he did it. He made a promise to the people of the province, and he kept it. And it’s important as Tories, because we tore strips off him when we believe he needed to have that done, and here was Miss Buffo out leading the crowd. Not everything has to be a brawl on the steps of Confederation Building, remember that too. But there comes a time when you’ve got to stand your ground, and b’ys, get out of the way, and that was one of them. I made no apologies then, and I don’t make them now.

-srbp-

Sally’s Cove, Labrador #nlpoli

During the last federal election two polling stations in the riding of Labrador closed for two hours after an Elections Canada worker drove away with the ballot boxes, according to the Toronto Sun.

According to the Sun:

A spokesman for Elections Canada said an employee in Labrador thought ballot boxes were for "training" and drove away with materials for about 20 minutes. The employee was then called back to the polling stations, located at a legion and a hall, by another officer and the station was reopened.

-srbp-

 

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18 October 2012

The Dangers of Being a Mythbuster – 50 is the new 70 #nlpoli

Look around and anyone can find a huge amount of information about Muskrat Falls and electricity in Newfoundland and Labrador.

For all that, though, there is a great deal of misinformation out there.  That only adds to confusion some people are experiencing.  As disappointing as it is, misinformation remains a fact of life in the Muskrat falls discussion.

As a couple of recent posts have shown, some of the misinformation turned up in a single online commentary recently posted. Something good can come out of everything, as it seems and so this third post corrects the misinformation and replaces it other issues and more substantive information.

The Challenge of Perspective #nlpoli

From Kathy Dunderdale’s unscripted speech to Conservative party delegates at the 2012 annual meeting:

Only the people who love us very much will be around when we finish this job because it takes over your life. I remember being in a Treasury Board meeting and somebody saying, you know, you can’t do that. You can’t expect somebody to drive a hundred miles a day and work for minimum wage, and somebody said, well sure, you ask Ross Wiseman to do it every day.

17 October 2012

Loyola Sullivan and conflict of interest #nlpoli

From the report by federal conflict of interest and ethics commission into certain actions by former fisheries ambassador Loyola Sullivan:

In June 2011, after consulting with my Office about whether he could take the position, Mr. Sullivan took up the position of Vice President of Resource Management and Sustainability at Ocean Choice International (Ocean Choice). In that position he had several interactions with Fisheries and Oceans Canada and Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada related to matters of interest to Ocean Choice during his one-year post-employment cooling-off period. He also attended a consultation organized by Fisheries and Oceans on behalf of the Groundfish Enterprise Allocation Council.

During my examination I found that several of these interactions were made in order to persuade federal government officials to make a decision to the advantage of Ocean Choice and, in one case, to change a policy in accordance with the position of the Groundfish Enterprise Allocation Council. In my view, these interactions involved making representations. I have therefore found that Mr. Sullivan contravened subsection 35(2) of the [Conflict of Interest] Act.

-srbp-

The Dangers of Being a Mythbuster – More Thermal than Thermal #nlpoli

The issue of Holyrood and the future cost of thermal generation is a big part of the argument for Muskrat Falls.

What’s so amazing about it is that people can actually get so confused by something so straightforward.

The Power of Delusion #nlpoli

Kathy Dunderdale gave a speech to the hundreds of Conservatives who gathered in Gander last weekend for their annual convention.

The Telegram’s James McLeod transcribed most of it and posted it to his blog at the Telly website.

Dunderdale’s speech is amazing because, unlike her recent speeches, she didn’t rehearse every single word and gesture.  This one is all Kathy, speaking earnestly about what she believes.

16 October 2012

The Dangers of Being a Mythbuster – Transmission Lines #nlpoli

As a rule, any commentary that purports in its title to bust myths usually winds up perpetuating a myth or two of its own.

Corollary: if it doesn’t propagate a few myths, there’s a danger that the same commentary will contain misinformation that will lead people off into the trees.

John Samms' recent post sets out to debunk a few myths about Muskrat Falls but winds up proving the old mythbuster rule and the corollary in the process.

Here’s how.

Conventional Wisdom #nlpoli

After a wild weekend in Suburbia in the Woods, the province’s ruling Conservatives turned up all over the talk radio shows going on about how there were so many Tiny Tories at the convention and how a chunk of the provincial executive was made up of people under 30 years of age.

Clearly, the Tories are bothered by something to do with age, as in they are loaded down at the top end with people who aren’t young.  Like say the Old Man, who was the oldest person elected Premier when he took office in 2003.

Or Kathy Dunderdale, who beat Danny by a good few years to be the oldest person ever elected Premier.

Or maybe they are just a-feared of the province’s New Democrats.

15 October 2012

Dunderdale hits new record #nlpoli

Premier Kathy Dunderdale made a record-setting change to the senior ranks of the provincial public service on Friday with the appoint of Peter Au as the new assistant deputy minister of fiscal and taxation policy with the province's finance department.

This is the 40th change to the senior public service Dunderdale's made in a single year, bettering her previous record of 39 changes in 2011.  If she holds to her current pace, Kathy Dunderdale will make 49 changes in 2012.

-srbp-

The Language of Newfoundland Politics #nlpoli

Some of you may have noticed a couple of words turning up in any discussion of Muskrat Falls.

One is “confused”.

The other is “tired” as in tired of hearing about it.

These are very interesting code words, once you realise what they mean.

The Simple Litmus Test #nlpoli

by JM

There has been a new group of business people who have been formed in support of the Muskrat Falls Project. I would ask that these individuals review the following key facts and figures before they confirm their support of the project. I would also ask that they push the Government to answer the questions raised at the end of this short post

14 October 2012

Same Old New Energy! #nlpoli

Thanks to the Telegram’s James McLeod and his Twitter feed from Gander, take a look at two of the resolutions from the Progressive Conservative.

13 October 2012

There’s always more to see if you look #nlpoli

Watch the raw video of the Thursday news conference in which Premier Kathy Dunderdale, natural resource minister Jerome Kennedy, and finance minister Tom Marshall announced the end of a dispute with the companies developing the Hebron project.

Pay less attention to the details of the announcement itself than to the details of how they made the announcement.

12 October 2012

Christmas will arrive early this year

Word from the hobby shop Thursday is that the USS Skipjack is on the way.

USS Skip Jack Box Art

In 1/72 scale, this is going to be one big submarine:

-srbp-

Vote SRBP for Best Political Blog in Canada #nlpoli #cdnpoli

Canadian Blog Awards 2012Sir Robert Bond Papers is in the running for Best Political Blog in Canada for 2012.

Round 1 voting is open and I respectfully ask for your support.

Click on the picture to cast your vote.

-srbp-

How much was that principle in the window? #nlpoli

Sending the third topsides module from Hebron outside the province was “absolutely unacceptable” to Premier Kathy Dunderdale back in June.

She was “extremely unhappy” and vowed to “pursue all avenues available” to her in order “to ensure that this very important work stays in Newfoundland and Labrador.”

A few months later, the absolutely unacceptable has become completely acceptable.  The only question – as it turned out – was the price.

11 October 2012

Exploring the AIMS Commentary #nlpoli

Premier Kathy Dunderdale might cavalierly dismiss Gordon Weil’s commentary on Muskrat Falls but others – more thoughtful types – will find much in it to chew on.

Equalization Changes and Hydro-Electricity #nlpoli

The federal government is considering changes to the Equalization program and the way it assess revenue from hydro-electricity, according to documents obtained by PostMedia News under the federal access to information system.

The changes would apparently take into account revenue from hydro-electric corporations in provinces like Manitoba, Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador where a portion of the revenues from provincially-owned hydro corporations are sometimes passed directly to consumers in the former of lower electricity rates.

“Potentially, it’s a huge issue,” said Al O’Brien, chairman of the federal government’s 2006 expert panel on equalization, which examined hydroelectricity revenues as part of its analysis of the broader national program. “It will be controversial.”

He believes governments in Quebec and Manitoba recognize their fiscal capacity, or revenue-generating ability, is underrepresented in the current system.

However, any changes to how hydroelectricity is calculated in equalization could have a “huge impact” on how much — if any — a province receives from Ottawa in equalization, he explained. For example, some studies have suggested Quebec could lose billions of dollars in equalization payments if the true value of hydroelectricity were calculated in the program.

-srbp-

10 October 2012

Remittance Work and the Newfoundland Economy #nlpoli

For those who have been following the issue, SRBP and others were talking about remittance work back in 2007.

It remains a key part of the current administration’s economic policy.  The proof is in an airport in western Newfoundland that offers parking facilities for patrons who may be gone for upwards of one year.

-srbp-

Another sign of the democratic deficit #nlpoli

If you have a few minutes to spare, flip through the provincial government’s 2012 budget.

Look for the work “donation”.

You won’t find it.  Nor will you find any amount of money set aside in the health department budget that would cover a donation by the provincial government to health care foundations operated in some communities on the west coast earlier this year.

Muskrat needs full review: AIMS #nlpoli

By any reasonable standard, Gordon Weil would count as an expert.

In business.

In the energy business.

An expert.

As much as she said she wants to hear from experts, Weil’s review of the Muskrat Falls project won’t have any impact on Kathy Dunderdale.

That’s because he doesn’t fit her unique definition of what an expert is.

09 October 2012

Free-Fall from space

-srbp-

Muskrat, Martin, and Meaning #nlpoli

Note the number of times Ed Martin says “open”  or “transparent” within the first five minutes of his weekend interview for On Point with David Cochrane.

Odds are very high that these words relate to a very sensitive issue for Nalcor, revealed by their extensive polling.

Put the On Point interview together with Martin’s article in the weekend Telegram  - not online - and you can see why these ideas are causing Nalcor such problems.

06 October 2012

Dunderdale on track for 100% #nlpoli

Premier Kathy Dunderdale tied the record on Friday for senior executive changes in the provincial public service.

She appointed an acting deputy minister of justice to replace a fellow who has gone off to his reward as a justice of the supreme court.

Dunderdale set the record last year with 39 changes in a group of senior managers numbering about 85 in total.

If she keeps up the same pace of changes in 2012, Dunderdale will make a total of 49 before the New Year arrives.  A quick tally would show that  - if she hits that number – Kathy Dunderdale will have made the equivalent of a complete change in the senior ranks of the public service in about two years.

That’s on top of the heavy number of changes to the senior public service over the past decade.  Of the line departments, natural resources as seen the heaviest number of changes.  There’s been no obvious explanation for the high turn-over any more than there was any explanation of the sudden and mysterious changes at the deputy minister level in the department last month.

The former deputy minister, appointed in 2011 disappeared in September 2012 without explanation or – if you check the release – even a mention of her existence.

She.

Just.

Disappeared.

-srbp-

The Last Refuge #nlpoli

Call them the Dam One Percent.

Call them Dan-Dam Style.

Call them Millionaires for Muskrat.

Call them MFers, with tongue firmly in cheek.

The business people who back Muskrat Falls are now writing letters to the newspapers and forming political action groups to show their support of Muskrat Falls.

Like nobody knew that people like Nalcor directors Cathy Bennett and John Steele, former Nalcor chair Deanny MacDonald, and Labrador businessman Peter Woodward didn’t love the Muskrat Falls project already.

05 October 2012

Masters of our debt-ridden domain #nlpoli

Premier Kathy Dunderdale confirmed on Wednesday that companies looking to develop Labrador mines have been getting good results from their inquiries about buying electricity from Hydro-Quebec.

According to Dunderdale, the companies “understand that if Muskrat Falls does not go ahead, what happens in Labrador from that point on lies squarely in the hands of Hydro-Québec and the province of Quebec.”

She added:
Think about that! Does anybody have any confidence that, when mines in this province go to Hydro-Québec looking for energy for development in Labrador, they are going to get the best industrial rates in Atlantic Canada?
The provincial government wouldn’t be worried about the issue unless Quebec had power to sell. 

04 October 2012

David Vardy on Muskrat Falls #nlpoli

-srbp-

Kathy Dunderdale’s World #nlpoli

Remember the World the Old Man Lived In?

Apparently, Kathy Dunderdale lives in the same place.

-srbp-

The First Casualty in Dunderdale’s War #nlpoli

As she launched the first salvo in the final battle of the War for Muskrat Falls, Premier Kathy Dunderdale decided to prove the old maxim correct:  she put Truth up against the wall and shot the old girl squarely between the eyes.

“We adhere to established contracts and respectful business practices,” she told the crowd at a Board of Trade luncheon.  No word if the crowd at Fortis shifted uncomfortably in their seats.  The people from ENEL  - had they been there - could certainly attest to the manifest falsehood in the Premier’s comment.

Dunderdale had a few more bullets to pump into Veracity’s lifeless form off before she was done.

03 October 2012

Random observations #nlpoli

What Kathy Dunderdale said in 2012 about wanting to be Premier:

“If you live your life more in the moment, the rest of it will work its way out.”

Sounds a lot like what SRBP told you.  Here’s one comment from July 2011:

Kathy Dunderdale took over the job in the first place on the understanding it would be a temporary thing.  The shift in December had more to do with internal party politics than Dunderdale’s sudden discovery she had some goals to accomplish.  [Hint:  she didn’t].

Then out of the blue she gave some of her staff new titles and presumably bigger salaries to go with them.  At least, they will certainly have fatter severance packages now when she leaves the office well before the next election.

-srbp-

02 October 2012

GovSpeak Translator #nlpoli

A “forgivable loan” is another way of saying that a private-sector company is getting a free gift of public-sector money.

-srbp-

The Enduring Principle of Newfoundland Mining Development Policy #nlpoli

If you want to understand the provincial government’s mining policy, look no further than Joe Smallwood and a speech he gave to the local chapter of what was then the Canadian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy in 1979.

01 October 2012

Labrador Mining and Power Rates #nlpoli

In her scrum with reporters last week, Premier Kathy Dunderdale answered questions about possible rates offered to new mining companies in Labrador if the Muskrat Falls project goes ahead.

She mentioned the low electricity rate IOCC and Wabush mines receive from Churchill Falls as an example of how industrial customers get better deals than consumers.

Yeah, well, no.

Muskrat Timelines slide back #nlpoli

Here’s what VOCM reported after Nalcor chief executive Ed Martin delivered a speech to St. John’s Rotary earlier this year:

Ed Martin won’t get into precise dates but says a decision on Muskrat Falls is fast approaching. The Nalcor CEO was the guest speaker at a Rotary luncheon in St. John’s. Martin says a sanction decision one way or the other needs to be made by October at the latest. Anything past that he says will cost the Crown corporation millions per month. Martin says they’re looking at having the decision ready by June/July so they can be presented to MHA’s and debated in the House.

Last weekend, Martin told the Telegram he would hope to get things done by the end of the year:

28 September 2012

Kremlinology 42: Dependency and the Loan Guarantee #nlpoli

The cost of the Muskrat Falls project has escalated to the point where the provincial government can’t do it without a federal loan guarantee.

Premier Kathy Dunderdale said as much on Wednesday when she finally got around to meeting with reporters two days after her meeting with Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

In her long rambling answer to the first question, she called the loan guarantee “important” at least twice. How far they have come since Danny Williams first started down the entirely political road to build the entirely political project.

27 September 2012

Labrador Mining and Muskrat Falls #nlpoli

Premier Kathy Dunderdale is bothered enough by his detailed critical analysis of Muskrat Falls that she has been known to single him out in fundraising speeches in the province and in the House of Assembly.

Journalists like CBC’s David Cochrane are tweeting requests for the guy to get in touch.

Yet so far Nalcor hasn’t challenged any of his commentaries at the Public Utilities Board or previously here at SRBP.

Today, they have another reason to pull at their hair.

26 September 2012

The Boyo called Brazil #nlpoli

Obviously, Premier Kathy Dunderdale got squat from her meeting with the Prime Minister on Monday. 

You can tell because all she had to say on the day of the meeting was nothing.  Her office issued a statement that – for some inexplicable reason – hasn’t turned up on the provincial government’s website.

You can also tell because a media scrum she had scheduled for Tuesday got bumped off until noon on Wednesday.

English v. Pike: Game on! #nlpoli

Supreme Court Trial Division, Court Room 7, Duckworth Street.

10:00 AM.

Be there or be squarer than you’d normally be as a lawyer or person interested in lawyer stuff.

William J. English vs Mark D. Pike et al.

25 September 2012

Tone, Standards and Political Suicide #nlpoli

The song from MASH was wrong.

Suicide is not painless.

And political suicide is more painful to watch than any other kind.

24 September 2012

38! #nlpoli

This will be a record year fort changes in the senior ranks of the provincial public service.

On Friday, Premier Kathy Dunderdale announced change number 38 for 2012.  That puts her one off last year’s record total.

And as we told you a couple of weeks ago, she’s on track for 49 changes this year.

Cabinet ministers must be pissed off about this constant disruption in their departments.

-srbp-

22 September 2012

Title Shuffling #nlpoli

The news via Twitter looked a lot bigger than it actually is.

David Cochrane tweeted on Saturday:

Sources: Premier Dunderdale shaking up staff on 8th floor (Premier's office). New deputy chief of staff Lynette Carroll (more)

Premier's new press secretary Debbie Marnell, new Director of Policy Denise Payne, new Assoc Dep Chief of Staff Derek Rideout (more)

Premier current press secretary Milly Brown moves to Special Assistant for Comms

Those moves continue a staff shakeup that started this summer with @LynnHammondNL taking the top Communications job on 8th floor.

Take a gawk at the provincial government telephone directory, though, and this looks a lot less impressive than you might think.  Here;s what these people were doing before and what they are doing now.

Name

Old Title

New Title

Lynette Carroll

Director of Policy

Deputy Chief of Staff

Derek Rideout

Director of Operations

Associate Deputy Chief of Staff

Debbie Marnell

Communications Specialist (TCR)

Press Secretary

Denise Payne

Special Assistant

Director of Policy

Milly Brown

Press Secretary

Special Assistant

Basically they’ve brought Debbie Marnell from a junior comms job in Tourism, Culture and Recreation to replace Milly Brown in the job of dealing with reporters day to day.

Brown goes off with a new title but there isn’t anything from the job description or her background that is a clue to what she’ll be up to.

Lynette Carroll, whose LinkedIn profile shows her as the Tory party executive director, moves from policy director in the Premier’s Office to deputy chief of staff.  No one filled that job in the Dunderdale Premier’s Office before.  They’ve created a new title for Derek Rideout but maybe not a new job to go with it. 

Rideout, incidentally had the title of Principal Assistant to the Premier whenever they last changed the PC Party website listing for the party executive board.

pcparty

Maybe these changes will fix some problems on the 8th Floor but on the whole this looks a lot more like changing some titles and maybe changing some salaries rather than bringing in new staff with new skill sets.

This sort of stuff doesn’t change performance and poll results.

-srbp-

21 September 2012

Sex and the cabinet #nlpoli

If all the speculation about a cabinet shuffle in the near future turns out to be true, it will be interesting to see if Premier Kathy Dunderdale breaks the fundamentally sexist nature of her current cabinet.

Kathy Dunderdale is justifiably proud of being the first woman premier in Newfoundland and Labrador’s history.  The fact that she is the first woman to hold the job is what makes her choice of cabinet ministers stand out a bit. Frankly, it’s a wee bit odd that no one has mentioned a curious pattern that appeared.

20 September 2012

The Budget and Oil Prices #nlpoli

Just when everyone thought it was safe, a  gigantic Twitter exchange erupted on Wednesday evening between Telegram report James McLeod and Deanny MacDonald, the guy everyone thinks is already the Liberal Party leader .

They wound up discussing oil prices and the provincial government budget, something you’ll find in Macleod’s article in the Thursday Telegram.

19 September 2012

Now that is what you call interesting #nlpoli

Labradore infuriates Connies both provincially and federally because the guy just knows his stuff and needles the little darlings at every chance.

On Tuesday, he posted a chart showing the number of words recorded by Hansard for each member of the House of Assembly during the last session.  He even colour-coded it by party for ease of reference.

You can find the whole chart here, but let’s take a look at a specific spot on the big picture.

deadwoodzoom

If some of the provincial Connies, were quick to identify Tom Osborne as “deadwood”, then you have to wonder what they think of the people who participated less in the House than Osborne did.

People like Tony Cornect, Ray Hunter, Tracy Perry or John Dinn, all of whom spoke less than Osborne did.

Things got so bad in caucus, apparently, that Tom Osborne decided to leave rather than put up with it.  Is he the only one who will cross the floor this fall?  We could wind up with the “independent” party made up of as many members as the Liberals or the New Democrats.

-srbp-

More mumbo on the mumbo-jumbo #nlpoli

Keith Russell apologized on Tuesday for comments he made a week ago about the religious beliefs of some aboriginal people in Labrador:

I don’t buy into the mumbo jumbo about the trail leading to the Muskrat Falls site as being sacred ground. You can romanticize and sensationalize that particular piece of land all you want, but it is a resource.

As CBC reported, Russell issued a written statement:

With regards to my recent comment about Muskrat Falls, I apologize for my poor choice of words,

There it is: apology.  Job done.

Well… yeah but read a bit more.

18 September 2012

Come again, b’ys #nlpoli

Two things about the provincial government’s new website devoted to climate change and energy conservation:

First, they could have used an editor.  This big chart has a rather glaring error in it.  Can you spot it?

screwed up chart

This seems to be a pretty simple problem with the layout.  Strange that no one noticed it given that it is such a big picture on the middle of a page.

17 September 2012

Dunderdale Translator: expert edition #nlpoli

Kathy Dunderdale speaks her own language.

She uses words in a different way from the rest of the population.  Take the word “expert”, for example.  Dunderdale claims that she would welcome any expert opinion that contradicts her current plan to rack up billions of dollars in debt building Muskrat Falls.

Dunderdale confirms knowledge of Osborne’s views on her leadership #nlpoli #cdnpoli

Premier Kathy Dunderdale confirmed on the weekend that she was aware Tom Osborne didn’t support her as leader of the Conservative Party in 2010.

Dunderdale told CBC’s On Point with David Cochrane that aware that Osborne supported her as interim leader.  However, Dunderdale said that when she wanted to seek the leadership on “a more permanent basis”, she polled the caucus and called Osborne last.

When Cochrane asked why Osborne was last on her list, Dunderdale said:

“…because you don’t miss when somebody… when he says now publicly that he didn’t support me, that’s not something you miss…”

That’s just one of several contradictions or misleading statements Dunderdale used to continue the Conservative attack on Osborne’s character.

14 September 2012

Your Future. Their Hands. More Russell #nlpoli

In 2011, Keith Russell was dumped from his position as a cabinet minister in the Nunatsiavut government.

Nunatsiavut president Jim Lyall issued a statement afterward that included this section:

Quite simply, Mr. Russell was not fulfilling his duties and responsibilities as a minister. The matter was raised with him previously, on several occasions, and I was assured by him that he would make a more concerted effort to work co-operatively with officials within his department and with the Nunatsiavut Executive Council. It is incumbent on all ministers to be actively involved on a regular basis with their respective departments, and to work with other members of the Executive Council to ensure the Nunatsiavut Government functions efficiently and effectively. By his own admission, Mr. Russell was not actively involved in the functions and operations of the Department of Health and Social Development, and had very little to no contact with senior officials within the department. He made that fact known to me and the First Minister, as well as other members of the Nunatsiavut Assembly and numerous officials. I had taken the liberty of raising the issue with Mr. Russell in hopes that the situation would change. Unfortunately, it did not, and we were forced to take action accordingly.

The future of your province is in his hands.

-srbp-

Your Future. Their Hands. Weakest Link edition #nlpoli

Fact:  Sandy Collins is the member of the House of Assembly for Terra Nova.

Fact:  Collins is a provincial Conservative.

Fact:  Sandy Collins supports Muskrat Falls.

Fact:  Collins was executive assistant to Paul Oram, a cabinet minister who had some problems with facts relating to the province’s recent history

Cabinet Audition #nlpoli

According to former Tory caucus member Tom Osborne, caucus knew a month ago that Kathy Dunderdale would be shuffling her cabinet in October.

That’s bizarre in itself.

But now we know why Steve Kent has been busily telling anyone who would listen and more who didn’t care about  his love for The Leader and her pet Muskrat Falls project.

It explains his one man Twitter war on behalf of Muskrat Falls.

And it also explains his Super-Shitheel behaviour and the shit-eating grin when he was out in August attacking Her enemies.

(Memo to Steve: your forgot to  change the website, sunshine.)

Now it is all clear.

Steve was auditioning for the promotion she screwed him out of before.

And he wasn’t alone, in all likelihood.

-srbp-

Osborne quits Tory caucus #nlpoli

Tom Osborne is part of the old townie Tory establishment in Newfoundland and Labrador.

He quit Kathy Dunderdale’s party on Thursday to sit as an independent member of the House of Assembly.  Osborne’s announcements sent a shock through the political community since no one saw it coming.  He cited a series of grievances he’s had with the way Dunderdale is running the party, although he never referred to the Premier by name.

Osborne’s announcement was a neat bookend to the week in which CBC’s David Cochrane reported on leaked news of a pending cabinet shuffle.  As SRBP noted, that sort of leak suggested that Dunderdale’s administration was “in far more serious political trouble than it first appeared.”

13 September 2012

Osborne versus Kent #nlpoli

The only thing more entertaining than watching the “member that works” leave the provincial Conservative caucus was watching the provincial Conservatives send out the always-credible Steve Kent to talk about party loyalty.

Only a few short weeks ago, the pair were featured in a government news release praising up a can of Matchless paint.

-srbp-

Your future. Their hands: profound ignorance edition #nlpoli

Conservative member of the House of Assembly Keith Russell.

He’s at it again, this time on CBC Radio’s Labrador Morning:

I don’t buy into the mumbo jumbo about the trail leading to the Muskrat Falls site as being sacred ground. You can romanticize and sensationalize that particular piece of land all you want, but it is a resource.

Religious beliefs are just “mumbo  jumbo” for Russell and he is prepared to dismiss them utterly because it is just a resource to refuse.

You wish people just made stuff like this up but there he is, folks.

This guy has your future in his hands.

-srbp-

Brian Peckford’s memoir now on sale #nlpoli

Updated:  Book signing dates below

The room at the Battery Hotel and Suites was packed with former politicians and public servants who were involved in some of the most important events in the province’s history over the past 35 years.

Noticeably absent from the launch of former Premier Brian Peckford’s memoir were members of the current Conservative caucus in the House of Assembly. 

Well, except for St. John’s South MHA Tom Osborne. 

Tom stood out. 

And that’s saying something.

12 September 2012

What’s the hang-up this time? #nlpoli

 

Via VOCM:

Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty says he is looking forward to working out details for the Muskrat Falls loan guarantee with Premier Kathy Dunderdale. … Flaherty says the feds have made a commitment to provide the loan guarantee for Muskrat Falls, but they still need to work out the details.

Working out the details?

Merciful jumpin’s!  At this rate, the damn dam will be built before they work out the details on the loan guarantee.

-srbp-

Bleeding and Motivation #nlpoli

The provincial Conservatives who hang tight around natural resources minister Jerome Kennedy like to say that you have to look at the motivations of people commenting on Muskrat Falls. According to the pro-Muskrat folks, you have to discount the opinion of people who have an interest in seeing the project stopped.

Let’s accept that for a second.

So by the same token we would have to check all the pro-Muskrat types to see if they have a bias that would allow us to completely disregard any opinion they would offer in favour of the mega-debt nightmare.

Your future is in their hands #nlpoli

Forget the engineers, economists, lawyers and all the people who have examined the Muskrat Falls project in great detail.

They do not matter.

The people who will approve Muskrat Falls are politicians.

The future of Newfoundland and Labrador is in their hands.

The fate of your province will be determined by Keith Russell:

Four people can get together roadside up by Muskrat Falls, with magic markers and some sticks and a little bit of cardboard, and they’ll make the news. I don’t see the point at that...

It certainly is the flavour of the month. Everybody’s got their own agenda as to why it should or should not be developed, but what you’re seeing here, especially up in Labrador, is people who have never been there, have never had any historical ties to the site, who have never had any family that ever hunted or trapped remotely close to the area, everybody’s getting’ their picture took, everybody’s talkin’ about their ancestors.

I don’t know, I just find it, you know — it’s nice to be concerned about the land, it sure is, but now this is the opportune time, if you will, for people to jump on the bandwagon, and claim to want to be part of the environmental movement to see this project stopped, which to me, it’s just silly at this point.

-srbp-

11 September 2012

Separated at Birth: Kent and Cleary edition #nlpoli

For the longest time after Kathy Dunderdale became Premier, Mount Pearl North Conservative Steve Kent proudly proclaimed on his website that he was party of the Danny Williams team.

kent081611

Dunderdale demoted him.

As recently as Hurricane Tuesday, Kent’s website was distinguished by the total absence of the Premier from its pages and pictures.  There’s like one picture and absolutely nothing else.  Kent’s slogan is there”  I’m on your side”.  But the you doesn’t seem to include Kathy Dunderdale.

Well, apparently Ryan Cleary feels the same way about Thomas Mulcair as Kent does about Dunderdale.

clearykent

Over to you, Mr. Mulcair.

Or back to you, Kathy Dunderdale.

Maybe Steve will change his website if she gives him the cabinet seat he craves with every pore of his ambitious being.

-srbp-

The sum of all fears #nlpoli

Kathy Dunderdale says that it is gratifying to have the support of the majority of the people of the province, as recent polls show, according to the Premier.

In another corner, former natural resources minister Shawn Skinner thinks it is great that the Conservatives have the support of six in 10 of the people surveyed.  He was referring to the responses in a recent Corporate Research Associates poll asking people whether they were satisfied or dissatisfied with the current government’s performance.

Shawn and Kathy missed some rather important things.

Polls, Politicians, and Messages #nlpoli

Cabinet is where the real political power sits in a parliamentary democracy. Ministers have enormous power both individually and collectively.

Only the first minister – the prime minister or premier – gets to decide who sits at the cabinet table. That’s a power first ministers are always careful to preserve because it is the ultimate expression of their control over their caucus.  People want to get to cabinet and the only way in is through the premier.

Changes in cabinet are often rumoured but until they happen, they are not real.  Only the premier and her closest, most trusted advisors know what is coming.  They only tell the people involved at the last possible moment.  The expectation  - often a clearly spoken expectation - is that the people who know will keep their mouths firmly shut. 

So when CBC provincial affairs reporter David Cochrane can report that a cabinet shuffle is imminent, attributing information to multiple unnamed but apparently high-ranking Tories, you can understand that Kathy Dunderdale’s administration is in far more serious political trouble than it first appeared.

10 September 2012

That and a buck fifty… #nlpoli

Former natural resources minister Shawn Skinner thinks that the Progressive Conservatives can turn around their current abysmal polling numbers if once they get beyond Muskrat Falls and turn their attention to other things.

Skinner was part of the political panel this weekend for On Point with David Cochrane.


Well,  that and a buck fifty and you have a cup of coffee.

The Swirl Continues #nlpoli

As it appears, all the talk last week in the Telegram editorial about the unusually large churn in the senior ranks of the provincial public service caused a bit of a churn in the stomachs of some people around St. John’s.

Some of them – including one curious series of Twitter comments – insisted the whole thing could be put down easily to retirements because we have an aging work force.  That’s an old one that local Tories have used to try to explain this away when SRBP raised it before.  We’ll get to that in a little bit.

For starters, let’s bring everything up to date. The more you dig, the more curious things you find.

07 September 2012

Who wants to play Brutus? #nlpoli

Just as they ate up the Corporate Research Associates’ quarterly poll when the numbers favoured the local Conservatives,  the local media have reported the latest CRA numbers with equal enthusiasm now that the Tory numbers are lousy.

To put it simply, the numbers confirmed the general thrust of two recent polls and the local media have reported them faithfully. As CBC put it:

Kathy Dunderdale and Newfoundland and Labrador's Progressive Conservatives continue to lose ground among voters, a new tracking poll suggests.

06 September 2012

Fairity O’Brien: Political Genius #nlpoli

On a day when the government’s pollster releases shitty news for his party, municipal affairs czar Fairity O’Brien decides it is a good idea to remind people of the miserable job his government did responding to Hurricane Igor.

Or as it is apparently known in some circles, Hurricane Ego.

For those who may not be familiar with the colourful cabinet minister, Fairity O’Brien is the guy who:

  • doesn’t know what electoral district Snantny is in, and
  • loves to commute between his home in Gander and his office in Sin Jawns, at taxpayer expense.

-srbp-

Did Mulcair really say that? #cdnpoli #nlpoli

According to CBC News, federal opposition leader Thomas Mulcair said that his party would honour a loan guarantee for the Muskrat Falls project “even if price tag goes up.”

But did he actually say that?

As the mind ponders… #nlpoli

labradore takes a unique look at the results of this week’s Quebec general election and wonders what might have happened if a few votes shifted around.

“What if”can be a useful exercise sometime.

-srbp-

As the Public Service World Churns #nlpoli

The Telegram editorial on Wednesday noted the most recent changes to the senior executive at the natural resources department and put it in the wider context of changes during the past 20 months.  The editorial notes that in the budget document for 2011 called Departmental Salary Details show that

the province had 20 deputy ministers, four associate deputy ministers and 61 assistant deputy ministers — a total of 85 positions at the top of the provincial civil service.

In the last 20 months, Dunderdale has announced 54 appointments at the level of assistant deputy minister or higher.

To paraphrase the editorial, maybe it means something, maybe it doesn’t matter that their figures show a 63% turnover in senior provincial public service management.

If you look at the period since Kathy Dunderdale became premier you will see that the Telegram missed a fair bit. If you drill deeper again and look at the pattern of changes, you can see even more.