There's a reason...

An eagle-eyed reader pointed out a huge problem with the 11:00 AM post on CRA polls that will require a re-write.

SRBP apologies for the error.  We'll repost later, with an explanation appended.

Paying Attention to Details #nlpoli

Gabriella Sabau is an economics professor at Memorial University's Grenfell campus out in Corner Brook.

Sabau thinks Muskrat Falls is wonderful idea for three reasons.

For one thing, it’s green.  For another thing, the electricity rates for consumers are supposedly low.

And for a third thing, "there will eventually be affordable power that will help attract business and investment." 

Sabau noted the overall cost, though:

“The initial cost of the infrastructure is really high and those initial costs need to be paid up front,” she said.

Hmmm.

Paid up front.

And "eventually" the power will be affordable for consumers.

As it seems, Professor Sabau doesn't know much about Muskrat Falls.  If she did, the economics professor would know that the project costs won't be paid up front. In fact, the project financing is deliberately set up to push the costs off to the distant future.

And it is consumers in the province who will be passing those costs later rather than sooner.  “Eventually” will be a long time for consumers.

On the affordability thing, Sabau will evidently be quite happy.  Business will find the power eminently affordable up front. Because consumers are paying all the costs plus profit, business and export customers get a gigantic deal right at the beginning.

"Eventually" comes quickly for them.   In fact you could say that businesses and export customers will get the huge benefit  immediately.

And those consumers for whom “eventually” really means eventually?  Well, they won’t likely see profit from their considerable investment during the current century.

"Eventually" for the people paying the bills really will be "eventually" as in some undefined point in the far distant, almost incomprehensibly far away future.

You really have to love economists who pay attention before they offer opinions.

-srbp-

Conservative Rorschach Test: Part Four #nlpoli

“Pegasus Flying From Quebec”

 

-srbp-

Your Future is in Their Hands: impacted poller #nlpoli

David Brazil,  member for Conception Bay East-Bell Island, on how he and his political colleagues approach the task of governing:

Mr. Speaker, we do not govern by polls. We want to know what the people really think.

Someone forgot to tell Brazil that public opinion polls do exactly that:  they tell you what people really think.

Maybe Brazil just doesn’t like what the polls have been saying lately.

-srbp-

So much for Danny’s Bootie Bonus #nlpoli

During the 2007 general election, the provincial Conservatives announced a policy under which they would pay $1000 to any woman in the province who gave birth to a live baby or or adopted one.

SRBP called it the bootie call.  Danny Williams tried to claim the idea was similar to an idea Hilary Clinton announced in the United States while she was trying to get the Democratic Party presidential nomination.  It wasn’t and SRBP explained the difference between the two and why the Bootie Call was unlikely to work.  It wouldn’t work because it hadn’t really worked in any of the other xenophobic places where they’d tried it.

Williams famously told reporters at the announcement in Corner Brook that “we can’t be a dying race.”

You don’t hear much about the Bootie Call from the Conservatives these days, but a look at the birth statistics will tell you what happened after the the provincial government started handing out the breeding bucks in 2008.

Calgary Liberal takes top political blog spot

Thanks to everyone who voted SRBP!

-srbp-

Conservative Rorschach Test: Part Three #nlpoli

“Two Quebeckers”

 

-srbp-

The Prisoners of Their Own Delusions #nlpoli

 

Another part of the Premier’s Office assault on reality Monday was a puff piece by Paul McLeod in the Chronicle Herald on Kathy Dunderdale.  In some respects, the timing is a coincidence but the thing has been in the works since last month, at least.

“She won’t make Joey’s mistake” was the title, with a subhead that Kathy Dunderdale “is leading the charge” of a Newfoundland and Labrador that is now in a power position in the country.

The focus, as you can gather from the title is a presentation of recent history in Newfoundland and Labrador centred on the 1969 Churchill Falls power contract.

History holds powerful political totems in Newfoundland and Labrador and none is more potent than the contract between Churchill Falls (Labrador) Corporation and Hydro-Quebec signed in 1969.

The Chronicle Herald piece is a fascinating bit of insight into the mindset behind Muskrat Falls. it shows the extent to which the Churchill Falls totem is based more on fiction than fact.

Jerome’s Grim Fairy Tale #nlpoli

Last week, some people wondered if Premier Kathy Dunderdale was out of the loop on negotiations over a federal loan guarantee when she seemed to say she did not know anything about an announcement in Labrador.

Some other people wondered if perhaps she knew about the talks but for some reason opted to claim she didn’t know what the Prime Minister would be announcing. If you want an example of the media reaction, take a look at the first story on the Here and Now broadcast on Thursday.

Reporters found her comments on Thursday afternoon so odd that one of them raised the issue with Prime Minister Stephen Harper during his news conference after the announcement.  Harper replied that he did not believe the Premier was unaware of the talks and the announcement but that she was being a wily politician.

That was just part of the confusion.  Later on Thursday, the announcement seemed to be off.  But almost as quickly, things were back on.  A story in the Chronicle Herald on Friday credited Nalcor boss Ed Martin with salvaging the deal.

How interesting, then, on Monday morning that a an entirely different story appeared, apparently from the Premier’s Office.

Conservative Rorschach Test: Part Two #nlpoli

 

“The NDP”

 

-srbp-

New Politics, Polls and the Media #nlpoli

Given that the local media missed the single major story of the 2011 provincial general election until after it was over,  the editors and journalists in the province might want to think about how they can better cover the next provincial election.

The Risks Just Got Even Bigger #nlpoli #nspoli

While lots of people were busily cheering Friday’s announcement of a federal loan guarantee for Muskrat Falls, they probably noticed a small but very significant detail.

The loan guarantee doesn’t exist until Emera decides to sanction the Maritime Link.  Under the agreements announced earlier this year,  Emera has until July 2014 to opt in to the Maritime Link.  Until that happens, there is no loan guarantee for anyone.

That doesn’t mean that Newfoundland and Labrador will will put everything on hold until then.  Nosirreee.

2041 Group calls for release of loan guarantee term sheet #nlpoli #cdnpoli #nspoli

From the Group’s new release issued December 2:

Muskrat Falls Term Sheet Must Be Released For Public Scrutiny

“The term sheet for the federal loan guarantee for Muskrat Falls must be released for public scrutiny," say lawyers for 2041 Group.

Prime Minister Harper made it clear that the term sheet he signed is not a loan guarantee. No such guarantee yet exists for the Muskrat Falls project.

Prime Minister Harper also said that if Emera decides not to build the Maritime Link there will be no federal loan guarantee. Emera has until July 2014 to decide whether it will do so.

Group 2041 says: “Premier Dunderdale has said her government will not sanction the project without a federal loan guarantee. There is now plenty of time for the Dunderdale Government to finally commit to due diligence and a full regulatory review."

Group 2041 concludes: "It is clear that: 'No Nova Scotia' means 'No federal loan guarantee.' The November 30th term sheet must be made public immediately.”

Let’s see if the governments release anything.

-srbp-

Conservative Rorschach Test: Part One #nlpoli

“Quebec”

 

-srbp-

When will she quit? #nlpoli

Now that Muskrat Falls is sanctioned, it is only a matter of time before Kathy Dunderdale quits politics. 

How long will we wait?

Adding the technical to the legal on the WMA #nlpoli

“We are potentially paying 6.4 Billion for 170 MW of firm power, which will just be enough to meet the Emera commitment,”  notes JM in discussing one scenario in his latest commentary The Water Management Agreement and Peak Load Delivery to the Island. 

The scenario JM is referring to involves irregular production by Churchill Falls of 20 days at full capacity and 11 days at a minimum level. Nalcor laid it out in one of its presentations to the PUB:

This adds a significant new technical dimension to the ongoing water management agreement controversy.

10 Reasons to Oppose Muskrat Falls #nlpoli

For posterity, here are Simon Lono’s 10 reasons to oppose Muskrat Falls. He tweeted them on Wednesday, November 28.

Your humble e-scribbler buggered up the list from Twitter so Simon sent along the correct versions, now updated (4 December)

Oh for God’s sake, just get a room #nlpoli

If you want to read a strongly worded condemnation of a provincial politician, take a gander at the Telegram’s editorial on Yvonne Jones from Tuesday’s paper.

Jones told the provincial government last week that her vote in the House of Assembly on Muskrat Falls was up for sale. Word got around the province pretty quickly.  And the Telegram dutifully pointed out that Jones’ pork-barrelling was from another time, a time perhaps best left behind.

The editorial tuts the appropriate tuts at Jones’ style of retail politics, but there are a few other points the Telegram didn’t make about the episode that are worth laying out.

Save yourself a bundle #nlpoli

A couple of decades ago, Greg Malone made a living lampooning an actor who decided to get into politics.

Now the actor and comedian has decided to try his hand at history writing.

No small irony.

There is not a single thing – not a single, solitary, living thing – in Greg Malone’s book on the supposed Confederation conspiracy that professional Jeff Webb didn’t write about  - and dismiss - already.

For those who may have missed the post and links from last April on Malone’s book, here’s the link to Webb’s piece. 

Save yourself a bundle.

-srbp-

The Steve Kent Rule #nlpoli

The MFers seem to be testy these days.

They like to challenge people who aren’t keen on Muskrat Falls about something called facts.

Facts, as you will quickly discover, are what the MFers call anything Nalcor has used in its marketing campaign to sell the project.

Things that Nalcor doesn’t include in its marketing are not “facts” for the people who love Muskrat Falls.

Small problem

10 Things for First Time Blog Writers #nlpoli

So you are thinking about starting a blog.

Great!

Before you go any further, go vote for SRBP as the Best Political Blog in Canada.  There are a couple of days left in the final voting. Go back again tomorrow and the day after.

Lives could depend on it.

When you’ve done voting, come back and read the rest of this post.

Jerome’s Jawbone of an Ass #nlpoli

Last week Premier Kathy Dunderdale told the House of Assembly something that was patently not true.

She said that the public utilities board had endorsed the Muskrat Falls project.

She did not mislead the House, as some suggested.  To do that, Kathy would have had to know something the rest of the members didn’t.

In this case, they all knew the rights of it.  Kathy just frigged up.

Badly.

Controlling Our Own Resources #nlpoli

A chance re-read of the Labrador Hydro Project Exemption Order last week led your humble e-scribbler to a surprising discovery.

The powers granted under the Electrical Power Control Act, 1994 to the public utilities board to manage electricity production in the province are intact.

That means that the lowest cost source of electricity for the province is readily available at Churchill Falls.

Harper pushing for larger DND role at Goose Bay #nlpoli

According to the Ottawa Citizen’s David Pugliese, the prime minister’s office  directed defence minister Peter MacKay to “find a new role for the Canadian Forces at Goose Bay”.

The PMO sent letters to MacKay in January and again in June.

“As part of this process, you will need to include options and recommendations to establish a clear sovereignty protection mandate for 5 Wing Goose Bay,” Harper told MacKay in his June letter.

-srbp-

Cabot Martin’s paper on Natural Gas #nlpoli

Few people have the depth of experience in the province’s energy policy and history than does Cabot Martin.

From the mind-1970s until the early 1990s Martin was a senior advisor to the provincial government.  He was part of the team that negotiated the 1985 Atlantic Accord and negotiated the Hibernia agreement.  Since leaving government Martin has continued to be heavily involved in the province’s oil and gas industry.

Martin released commentary on Friday on the provincial government’s recent paper that dismissed natural gas as a viable alternative to Muskrat Falls.  For those who want to go back a bit, Martin also delivered a presentation to the public utilities board. 

It got some media coverage – CBC, the Telegram, NTV, and VOCM – but no one linked to the actual paper Martin wrote. The four reports are an interesting study in contrasts in and of themselves.

-srbp-

Gil Bennett won’t re-tweet this post #nlpoli

After a few weeks’ break, Telegram editor Peter Jackson had another go Thursday at the water management controversy involving Nalcor and the 2041 Group.

Jackson wrote about it in his Hallowe’en column. After digging up some additional information, he went back at it again.

Jackson comes to the same conclusion as before, namely that the lawyers are wrong:  there’s no issue.  Jackson quotes Nalcor vice president, the engineer who is running the Lower Churchill project.  What’s interesting though is that after more research, Jackson still missed a crucial – albeit maybe subtle – detail.

Who Does Number Two Work For? #nlpoli

The House of Assembly on Thursday was sounding a wee bit like a cheesy remake of Austin Powers.

Liberal leader Dwight Ball asked for an updated cost of Muskrat Falls electricity delivered at Soldier’s Pond.  He asked twice in a row.

Twice Ball asked for the new number and twice natural resources minister Jerome Kennedy refused to answer.

Standing up for what he believes in #nlpoli #cdnpoli

In this photo, beleaguered federal Conservative cabinet minister Peter Penashue rises to vote against a Liberal bill that would strengthen penalties for violations of the Canada Elections Act.

For those who can’t quite make him out, that’s Penashue slightly to the right of the clerk calling out the names of members as they stand to vote.

Penashue is currently embroiled in a controversy over irregularities in his election expense filings.

-srbp-

It’s a Comprehension Thing #nlpoli

Kathy Dunderdale told the House of Assembly on Wednesday something rather curious about the public utilities board review of Muskrat falls last spring:

Mr. Speaker, we did refer the question to the Public Utilities Board. The questions we asked: Do we need the power; is Muskrat Falls the least-cost alternative? Mr. Speaker, when the PUB produced its report it concurred with Nalcor – and it is in the executive summary right in the front so you might want to read it. It concurred with Nalcor and MHI that based on Decision Gate 2 numbers that we did need the power and indeed it was the least-cost alternative.

The PUB said that Muskrat Falls was the least cost option and that the province needed the electricity.

It’s in the executive summary.

Go read it, she said.

Okay, let’s do just that.

Lobsters and rules #nlpoli

Seems that the post about the recreational lobster fishery got Jamie Baker over at the Navigator thinking about a bunch of things.

The biggest one was the idea that maybe the fishery around these parts is regulated too heavily:

It all raises the question: Is the industry in this province too tightly controlled? There cannot be anywhere else where the fishing industry at sea and on land is so strictly controlled and loaded with rules and regulations. There’s just can’t. It’s at a point now where fishermen almost have to take a logbook to the bathroom with them to record the colour and consistency of their urine.

Federal regulations.  Provincial regulations.

So what do you think?  There’s a spot for comments on Jamie’s post at The Navigator blog.

-srbp-

It’s a Confidence Thing #nlpoli

The public utilities board is good.

The public utilities board is bad.

She said..

He said.

Confused aren’t you?

Well, there’s no surprise when Premier Kathy Dunderdale and natural resources minister Jerome Kennedy say two completely different things about the same PUB on the same issue.

The Secret of Their Distress #nlpoli

Not content with just one round of fascinating public opinion information, NTV decided to unleash a second evening of news about how the public feels about Muskrat Falls.

The responses are based on the same panel conducted for NTV by MQO and first reported on Tuesday.

Let’s take a look at the results, as reported, and then make some observations.

If it’s on the Intertubes… #nlpoli

Keith Hutchings is the Minister of Twitter.

At least that is what the Wikipedia entry for the Newfoundland and Labrador cabinet minister said on November 21:

In GovSpeak, he would be the TwitMin.

-srbp-

If NOIA advocated for offshore development… #nlpoli

Bob Cadigan is president of the association that represents the province’s offshore supply and service companies.

He thinks that there’s more interest in exploring offshore Nova Scotia than Newfoundland and Labrador because of the way the Nova Scotia offshore regulator handles exploration data.

As the Telegram reported on Tuesday,

Cadigan said the data — like geochemistry and seismic testing results — is more difficult for curious companies to access in this province. For example, much of the seismic data here is only available on paper and not digitally, he said.

In other cases, individual oil companies completed the testing and keep the results to themselves for as long as they are allowed. 

Difficulty in obtaining information about an area can limit interest in making a bid and committing to exploration work in the area, Cadigan suggested.

Okay.  That could be the problem.

And then again, maybe not.

Support but lacking sufficient information - the NTV/MQO Poll #nlpoli

The more questions you ask, the more information you get. The more information you have, the more accurate a picture you can draw of anything.

In this case, it’s public opinion.

On Monday, the provincial government/Nalcor front group released the results of a single poll question put by Corporate Research Associates to a random sample of residents of Newfoundland and Labrador.

It showed 66% of respondents supported the Muskrat Falls project.

But on Tuesday, NTV News released the results of a poll it had commissioned from MQO.  More questions.  More information and a much different picture from Monday.

Kennedy’s Krazy Kost Kalculations #nlpoli

One of the hardest things to do is keep track of the numbers the provincial government uses to justify their plan to double the province’s debt and force taxpayers to pay it down through their electricity rates.

Muskrat Math is unlike any other type of math because the numbers the government uses never add up.

Take events in the House of Assembly on Monday as a good example.

Your future is in his hands: Russell again #nlpoli

Provincial Conservative Keith Russell is at it again, back in the news over allegations about his behaviour.

As CBC reports, Hockey Newfoundland and Labrador is considering a multi-game suspension for Russell for a couple of incidents on November 10 and 11. 

Russell was reportedly coaching a team in a children’s tournament on the 10th when he got into a verbal altercation with officials.  They punted him from the game.

Russell came back the next day and again berated officials, according to the CBC report:

A woman who was there said Russell used foul language and upset children who were playing hockey.

The game had to be stopped twice before Russell was escorted out of the building.

In September, Russell displayed great sensitivity – not – when he dismissed Muskrat Falls protestors during a call to Labrador Morning:

I don’t buy into the mumbo jumbo about the trail leading to the Muskrat Falls site as being sacred ground. You can romanticize and sensationalize that particular piece of land all you want, but it is a resource.

In 2011, the Nunatsiavut government punted Russell from his position:

Quite simply, Mr. Russell was not fulfilling his duties and responsibilities as a minister. The matter was raised with him previously, on several occasions, and I was assured by him that he would make a more concerted effort to work co-operatively with officials within his department and with the Nunatsiavut Executive Council. It is incumbent on all ministers to be actively involved on a regular basis with their respective departments, and to work with other members of the Executive Council to ensure the Nunatsiavut Government functions efficiently and effectively. By his own admission, Mr. Russell was not actively involved in the functions and operations of the Department of Health and Social Development, and had very little to no contact with senior officials within the department. He made that fact known to me and the First Minister, as well as other members of the Nunatsiavut Assembly and numerous officials. I had taken the liberty of raising the issue with Mr. Russell in hopes that the situation would change. Unfortunately, it did not, and we were forced to take action accordingly.

-srbp-

Final Round of Voting for Best Political Blog in Canada #nlpoli

SRBP is in the race for the Best Political Blog in Canada for 2012.

Please take a moment and show your support.

Just click the pick to go to the Canadian Blog Awards voting page.

Vote early.

Tell your friends.

And thanks for your support.

-srbp-

On the value of legislative hearings #nlpoli

United States senator John McCain (Republican – Arizona) thinks that Parliament should hold hearings into the prospective purchase by the Chinese national oil company of Alberta-based Nexen.

“I think it’s also a role for the legislative body to hold hearings, to get witnesses and say, ‘OK what is this all about?’”

Two benefits that come with public hearings are media coverage and public education -- but when cabinet makes the decision behind closed doors, that exposure is lost, he said.

That pretty much says it all.

-srbp-

He’s not that into you, either #nlpoli

Some reporter decided to ask Paul Antle if he was interested in the Liberal leadership now that Dean MacDonald has decided he had better things to do that try and become Premier of the province.

Sure, says Paul. Love to. But gee, the timing on this whole voting thing is not good for me.  Could we postpone this whole politics deal until like say a couple of years from now when it’s a tad more convenient for me?

That’s a paraphrase, but it pretty much captures the essence of Antle’s remarks.

The 2011 Muskrat Falls Referendum #nlpoli

Some people want a referendum on Muskrat Falls.

In an enthusiastic support of democracy, some other people don’t want to have a referendum on Muskrat Falls because the punters are not sufficiently enlightened as to the details of this major issue to make an intelligent-enough choice.

Those same punters are able to pick governments in general elections, though.

Election.

Referendum

What does Kathy Dunderdale think?

A friendly audience #nlpoli

Kathy Dunderdale defended the Muskrat Falls project at a speech on Wednesday night, according to cbc.ca/nl’s story.

That’s an odd phrase given that Dunderdale was speaking to a Tory party fundraiser, as the headline noted.  That would be the textbook definition of a friendly audience for any talk about Muskrat Falls.

But if you look at the record of political donations you can see some rather interesting things.

The Original Nalcor Technical Briefing #nlpoli

After all this time, some of you will find it interesting to go back and look at some slides from the original Nalcor “technical briefing” on Muskrat Falls delivered in November 2010.

The ”last saved” date on the deck is 25 November 2010

Compare it to the briefing Nalcor gave to the public utilities board, for example, in July 2011.  Notice how much changed.

Time to Rescind the Pork Appointment #nlpoli

Last December, the federal cabinet appointed intergovernmental affairs minister Peter Penashue’s campaign manager in the 2011 to a plum seat on the joint federal-provincial board that regulates the province’s offshore oil industry.

It was a pure pork-barrel appointment since Reg Bowers has absolutely no background that might have made him  qualified to sit on the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board.  A series of appointments by his provincial Conservative friends doesn’t count.

Bowers landed a sweet gig:  six years, subject to reappointment.  Hob-knobbing with international oil industry types.

Flip ahead a year and Penashue has tried to distance himself from the controversy.  A letter from Penashue to constituents released on Tuesday notes that Bowers was responsible for campaign administration.  Penashue says he made it clear that the campaign would follow Elections Canada rules.

“No one is more surprised than I am at the allegations that have arisen since the campaign,” wrote Penashue.  “No one is more disappointed. That’s why there is a new Official Agent in place to examine all of the paperwork and to work with Elections Canada to correct any mistakes.”

There have been enough questions about Penashue’s campaign finances since last summer for him to have relinquished his cabinet job until Elections Canada finished its probe into the campaign. The fact he hasn’t done so is one thing.

But In his letter to constituents, Penashue pointed to his official agent during the campaign and his responsibility, as a function of the position he occupied, for the state of Penashue’s campaign accounts, finances and documentation.

Something was clearly amiss in Penashue’s campaign.  The problems with Penashue’s campaign may well have resulted from nothing more exotic than incompetence.  But that incompetence should be seen plainly enough by now, on the face of it, to cause the federal cabinet to request Mr. Bowers’ resignation from the offshore board.  If he doesn’t to leave voluntarily, then he can be removed. 

Peter Penashue’s letter laid the groundwork for it.

Let’s just get on with it.

-srbp-

Politics and Misinformation #nlpoli

If you haven’t done so, take a few minutes and listen an interview CBC’s David Cochrane did with Mark Dobbin for this week’s edition of On Point with David Cochrane.

As Cochrane notes at the start of the show, Dobbin is the other director who quit the board of Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro a decade ago over another deal to develop both Gull Island and Muskrat Falls entirely for export. [correction]

Watch the interview – it’s about half way into the clip – and notice how the misinformation and false information starts right at the beginning in David Cochrane’s question.

Your Future is in Their Hands: Political Definition #nlpoli

Voters in Newfoundland and Labrador have a new political definition:

to crummell:  to have one's opinion completely reversed in a nanosecond by the whim of another.

There may well be others that will turn up in the wake of Tory Dan Crummell’s 180 degree reversal on Peter Penashue on Friday.

But no matter what witticisms crop up, Dan Crummell defined himself rather neatly, if unflatteringly, last week.

Some Thoughts on Politics, Myth, and Identity #nlpoli

Your humble e-scribbler saw a couple of comments last week that said the NDP town hall on Muskrat Falls was a good argument against having a referendum on the megaproject.  Some people were quite badly misinformed, so the commentary went, not just about Muskrat Falls itself but about the province’s electricity supply and demand.

Those observations are surprising.  They are surprising because we’ve had two whole years of relentless marketing by Nalcor about their project.  They are surprising because the provincial government has been trying to develop the Lower Churchill continuously since 1998.  There isn’t a single year since then when the provincial government, Nalcor and before that Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro have not been trying to find some way to get this thing done.

That’s almost 15 years of relentless public discussion.  And still people don’t know basic information.

Absolutely gobsmacking, that is.  Unless you think about public discussions over the past decade or so.

Remembrance Day 2012

Master Corporal Darrell Jason Priede, killed in a helicopter crash at approximately 2100 hrs 30 May 2007 near Kajaki, Helmand Province, Afghanistan

- Veritas -

Self-massaging the message #nlpoli

The Telegram’s Pam Frampton has a neat column this weekend on Jerome Kennedy, Muskrat Falls, and the provincial government’s problems with explaining to people in simple terms why Muskrat falls is a good idea.

Frampton nails the biggest problem simply enough: 

The problem with the government’s Muskrat Falls message till now is that it has been a moving target. One week the project was all about clean energy, the next it was job creation, then it was all about being an affordable energy source, then it was a means of foiling Quebec, then it was a lure for mining companies.

Then she notes the critic’s arguments and the fact they they were,as Frampton, puts it often “shrilly spun” by government officials and others.

Kennedy tried to put a new face on government’s messaging during his appearance at the Telegram’s editorial board. as much as Kennedy seemed to change both his tone and his content, none of that stopped Kennedy from spinning  - to use Frampton’s word - either his own position or that of the critics. 

How surprising.

Recreational Lobster Fishery #nlpoli

Lots of people in Newfoundland and Labrador fought for and continue to bitch about the recreational cod fishery.

They bitch because they cannot fish anytime they like.  They bitch because other people in other parts of Canada don’t have the same restrictions on their recreational fishery.

Well, take a look at another place on the eastern seaboard where marine species are under heavy pressure both from commercial fishermen and, as it turns out, the recreational types as well.

How Darin Could Have Succeeded on the Debate #nlpoli

Darin King failed miserably in his first encounter with the opposition parties.

He didn’t have to.

We get the message just fine, Jerome #nlpoli

“No, I don’t think that we have done a great job of communicating this,” natural resources minister Jerome Kennedy told the Telegram editorial board last week.

“I can give you a couple of examples myself that I’ve done. One is, ‘No debate! No debate!’ Then a week later, ‘OK, let’s have a debate now.’ That’s not good communication.”

The Telegram editorial on Wednesday then mentioned the provincial government’s general message to critics of the Muskrat falls project.  The editorial paraphrased it as “You’re all idiots, you don’t know what you’re talking about and you’re all wrong.”

Okay.

A bit of an exaggeration, but not much of one.

With all due respect to the newer, calmer Jerome Kennedy, the provincial government doesn’t have a communications problem.

Muskrat Falls propaganda a no-brainer #nlpoli

From the latest issue of the Irish Loop Post, Craig Westcott’s editorial “You won’t strain your brain reading government’s last minute batch of Muskrat Falls propaganda.”

There is more to read in a Victoria’s Secret catalogue than Nalcor’s electricity demand forecast, according to Craig.

Numbers and stuff #nlpoli

Most of you are likely dissecting the American presidential election or hopped up to talk about the House of Assembly.  Well, there’s plenty of time for that.

Consider this post a minor diversion, more about the backstory than about the discussion of what just happened.  We’ll get back to some new and more involved subjects on Thursday.

Thy Redeemer Liveth #nlpoli

Tuckamore Capital made a single political donation during the 2011 general election.

The company gave $1500 to Keith Hutchings, who ran for the Conservatives in Ferryland.

Dean MacDonald is president and chief executive officer of Tuckamore Capital.

In 2011,  MacDonald was being courted behind the scenes to take over the leadership of the Liberal Party from an ailing Yvonne Jones. 

At the time, Jones denied it publicly, as reported by CBC.  The same CBC story quoted MacDonald as saying that “as a Liberal I will be helping Yvonne in any way I can in terms of candidates, fundraising and all the things that go on with an election.”

The Tuckamore donation occurred during the campaign. 

-srbp-

Cost Per Vote: General Election Years #nlpoli

Last winter we took a look at the idea of cost per vote.  Basically, you compare the amount of money a campaign spent with the number of votes it got.

It’s a way of measuring the efficiency of a political campaign.  The lower the number, the more efficient the campaign is.

Here’s a chart showing the cost per vote for the three major parties in Newfoundland and Labrador in the four general election years 1996, 1999, 2003, and 2007.  The calculations added the annual contributions for each party and the specific contributions for each general election during the year of the general election and divided the sum by the number of votes cast for each party.

The chart doesn’t include 2011 since Elections NL hasn’t released the annual contribution figures for that year yet.

The Mystical Lords of Mu’skr’at Fa’alls #nlpoli

The water management controversy flared briefly at the end of last week thanks to Geoff Meeker’s blog at the Telegram and a couple of interviews by the 2041 Group and Nalcor’s Gil Bennett.

This is one of those issues where a lot of people either tune out early on because it appears highly technical and complicated.  Actually it isn’t.  The topic only appears complicated.

It only appears complicated because of the very convoluted, long-winded, and very unhelpful way the cats at Nalcor talk about the water management agreement.  They go all techie.

Once you get a handle on the whole water management thing, it’s quite easy to understand and it’s quite easy to see where the possible problems are.

Kathy Dunderdale, give-aways, and the resource curse #nlpoli

Ontario has been interested in Gull Island since at least the 1990s.  We didn’t need Kathy Dunderdale to say that again as part of the advertising show she is mounting before finally admitting Muskrat Falls is a done deal.

As recently as 2005, Dunderdale and her friends turned up their noses at Ontario’s offer to help develop the Lower Churchill at no cost to local taxpayers.  The result: No development.

Instead of building the Lower Churchill for export  - profit for taxpayers -Dunderdale and her friends are forcing taxpayers to empty out their public bank accounts of billions in oil savings and then borrowing billions more in order to give cheap electricity to multi-billion dollar mining companies. Then those same taxpayers will pay themselves back through their electricity rates over the course of 50 years.

Whoever could imagine such a ridiculous idea?  Especially in a province where the overwhelming majority of the population pays very little, if any, tax.  

The Fifth of November returns once more #nlpoli

“I know why you did it.

I know you were afraid.

Who wouldn't be?

… There were a myriad of problems which conspired to corrupt your reason and rob you of your common sense. Fear got the best of you, … .

He promised you order, he promised you peace, and all he demanded in return was your silent, obedient consent.”

-srbp-

The Disney Empire Strikes Back #nlpoli

Lots of anguish and lots of humour attend the news that George Lucas has sold out to Disney.

A sample of the fun:

And another:

-srbp-

Water Management Controversy Hits Nova Scotia #nlpoli

Okay so the locals might call it Information Boring, but CBC’s morning Halifax radio show took a look at Muskrat Falls this week.

The interviewed Dennis Browne from Group 2041 on Wednesday.  The next day they came back with a discussion of the water management controversy.

Here are links to the audio files:

• Dennis Browne
• Bern Coffey and the Water Management Agreement

-srbp-

Windy #nlpoli

Anyone with half a clue knows that you cannot develop a reliable, efficient electricity system built on type of generation only.

You need a mix so that the advantages of one type offset the weaknesses of another.  All hydro is hard to do if you need steady supply because it tends to vary with the water flow.  Wind is even worse for that.  Oil and coal are good for steady supplies but they tend to be expensive, dirty or both.  Natural gas is very cool, especially these days, because not only is there lots of it but it is very inexpensive and can deliver electricity pretty much on demand. 

Only in Newfoundland and Labrador do we have access to trillions of cubic feet of natural gas already found, trillions more likely to be discovered, and a provincial government that doesn’t want to develop it because the natural gas is not expensive enough to use. 

Labrador Mines and Muskrat Falls #nlpoli

One of the things everyone is learning this week is that a consultant who accepts all the assumptions Nalcor used to arrive at its conclusion in the first place will -  inevitably -  reach the same conclusions.

Some people will think that the second report proves that the first conclusion was right.

Unfortunately, such is not the case.  It merely means that – inevitably –such an approach will repeat the same mistakes, errors, and flaws just as readily as it might get something right.

Think of it as a case of GIGO:  garbage in, garbage out.

Creature from the Black Lagoon and other stuff

Oh, man they have got a Creature from the Black Lagoon in development at Moebius.

It might not hit the shelves until January 2013, though.

-srbp-

C.H.U.R.N #nlpoli

The first day of a new month and Premier Kathy Dunderdale is continuing to set new records of turn-over in the senior ranks of the provincial public service.

It’s been a mere two weeks since the record-setting 40th change in a single year.  On Thursday, Dunderdale added five more:

• a new deputy minister in advanced skills and training, who previously was the DM in education,
• promotion for an assistant deputy minister in advanced skills to the post of associate deputy minister in the same department,
• an acting deputy minister in education,
• a new assistant secretary to cabinet for social policy, and,
• a new assistant deputy minister in child youth and family services.

Note that two of those will open up the chance for further changes.  The acting DM in education will need to be replaced or confirmed.   The ADM for social policy will vacate and ADM job in health and community services on November 7.

SRBP forecast that Dunderdale was on track for 49 changes at the senior executive level before the end of 2012.

-srbp-

Muskrat Potpourri #nlpoli

• The skinny on cost overruns – Des Sullivan
• Bringing energy efficiency to the equation – Winston Adams
• The need for power isn’t proven – Maurice Adams

-srbp-

King Kop. Kennedy Kop. #nlpoli

Expect to hear a lot more in the next couple of days about a comment Jerome Kennedy made on CBC Radio’s Crosstalk on Wednesday.

The reason is that back in the spring Kennedy said this to CBC about the opposition parties and debates:

"The problem right now is that I'm not sure these opposition parties are going to provide quality debate on anything," Kennedy said at the time.

Now his tune is different:

…And at that point, I was more critical of critics that I am today," said Kennedy.

"And I became very open to the debate as a result of the PUB's failure to make a decision."

Calculators #nlpoli

Nalcor’s new marketing website for Muskrat Falls includes a little feature that supposedly shows you what your electricity bill will be with and without Muskrat Falls.

Even though you will pay for Muskrat Falls until at least 2067, they only show the comparisons out to 2030 on the new calculator.

So try a monthly bill currently of $200.

According to Nalcor, your monthly electricity bill with the Marvellous Muskrat will be $268 in 2025.

In 2010, they gave an estimate out to 2040 using a bill that was $200 in 2017.  On that basis, your monthly bill in 2025 would be $208 in 2025.

That’s a huge difference.

But ya gotta wonder why they changed the way they presented the numbers.  It just makes an already confusing situation – for many people – all the more confusing.

Most people aren’t really worried about the costs that far out in the future. They are more concerned with more immediate costs, like say the impact on their taxes or money they’d rather spend on health care but will now have to devote to paying for an enormous dam up in Labrador.

All the same, looking at the comparison charts.  The monthly savings aren’t all that great.  Even in 2030,  you’d be saving less than $50 a month.  Nalcor’s total estimated savings over the 14 years between 2016 and 2030 is only $3811. 

That’s $272 a year, on average.  What’s everything else going to cost in 2025 or 2030 if oil is going to be at the sorts of prices Nalcor assumes?  Besides, on the front end of that period the costs are almost identical.  There’s no comparative advantage to switching until well into the future.

Maybe all that is a bit too esoteric for some people.

Just look at the numbers.  Some people are going to conclude  - likely incorrectly - that in a mere two years, the monthly cost for Muskrat Falls for the ordinary consumer appears to have jumped $60 a month.  Once someone gets that idea in their heads,  even if it is completely wrong those $50 a month in theoretical savings way off in the future are going to seem like what they are today:  nothing.

-srbp-

The DG 3 Dog and Pony Show #nlpoli

Big Show.

Room full of people all there because they have a direct interest in the project.

Live streaming by the news media.

And all to release the latest cost estimates for Muskrat Falls.  The show was so big, however, that it looked like someone had decided to puff the whole thing up to make it appear much more important than it was.

That turned out to be a fairly accurate impression.

Getting ready for the onslaught #nlpoli

Some things to bear in mind as the provincial government starts its latest information offensive on Muskrat Falls:

1. These aren’t “final” numbers.  Whether it’s a government phrase or a media invention, the idea that these numbers are “final” is dead wrong.  The DG 3 numbers are nothing more than the latest cost estimate, plus or minus 30%.  We won’t know the final numbers until a decade or more from now.
2. We already know why Nalcor didn’t look at alternatives.  As it looks from CBC’s report, the provincial government spent a chunk of cash to repeat what we’ve already heard from Nalcor – they didn’t look at alternatives to Muskrat Falls to generate electricity for use within the province.  When Nalcor suddenly changed the Lower Churchill project objective in 2010 (from export to domestic use) they should have gone back to DG1 and started from scratch.  That should have included a series of comparisons of alternatives. They didn’t do that.  Instead, they sailed through DG 2.  Nothing has changed.  They still haven’t looked at alternatives.
3. Check for how much information they release about the federal loan guarantee.  The provincial government’s story has morphed over the past couple of months:  at one point the guarantee would be done.  Now we are supposedly getting a range of possible options. 

Overall, don’t expect to see any new information from the provincial government.  Their objective is not to inform or persuade. Their goal is to plough through the next couple of weeks in the hope that they can get the Muskrat off their political backs.

This has been a done deal since 2010. 

Claims to the contrary are complete foolishness.

-srbp-

The Self-Inflicted Wound #nlpoli

When did the companies involved in the Hebron project sanction it?

Anyone?

Don’t google it.

When did ExxonMobil and all those companies give the project team the green-light to start building the gravity base and all the others bits that will lead to oil production on the fourth field offshore Newfoundland and Labrador?

Sanction. 

The green light.

No?

Darin King and the Tory Charm Offensive #nlpoli

A couple of the exceedingly small changes in the recent cabinet shuffle came out of the Bill 29 fiasco.  Felix Collins went from the relatively low profile job of justice minister to the complete obscurity of intergovernmental affairs.

Everyone saw that.

And over in another corner, there was a switcheroo people didn’t notice quite as much.  Jerome Kennedy gave up the job of directing Government business in the House so that Darin King could take over.

There was no doubt Jerome had completely frigged up in the House, just like there’s no doubt the Tories are way down in the polls.  The two went hand in hand all last session and indeed, for most of the last year or more.

Darin King offers no chance of changing that.

Moebius’ Skipjack

Here are some views of Moebius’ 1/72 scale USS Skipjack held together with green painter’s tape. 

Skipjack was the first nuclear-powered hunter killer submarine using the teardrop hull design that optimised underwater performance.  Skipjack and her sisters were the fastest submarines in the US Navy until the arrival of the Los Angeles class boats in the 1970s. They remained in front line service until they were decommissioned in 1990.  

The navy rushed its first two ballistic missile submarines to sea by modifying the Skipjacks and redirecting some of the parts to what became the George Washington class.  A cut in the hull, the addition of about an extra 130 feet, 16 missile tubes and some other structural changes and the Americans had a working launch platform.  Unfortunately, they could be as noisy as hell. 

Ambitious modellers could convert this kit to a George Washington.  The easier conversion would be to build a GW after its conversion from a missile carrying submarine.  The navy chopped out the missile sections  and stuck the bow and stern back together.  The end results as a Skipjack with the old fairing around the sail that led up to top of the missile section left in place.

The picture quality isn’t great but for those interested in these things, it will give a sense of the size of this kit.

The front of the box says the kit builds to 40 inches.  The back of the box says 42 inches.  The back is right.  That’s a 48 inch level in the foreground and while you can’t see it clearly in this picture, the submarine will be 42 inches almost exactly from the tip of the bow to the point at the end of the five-bladed screw.

Here’s another view from the top:

The hull is split into four sections fore, aft, top, and bottom.  The sections are bagged and wrapped in soft plastic to prevent scratches and dings in shipping. The entire kit is packed into a box 22 inches long. This facilitates shipping and helps to keep the costs down.

The surface detail is finely molded with slightly recessed lines.  There is a waterline molded into the upper hull.  This mars the finish toward the bow where it cross the upper sonar array but you can fix that with a skillful application of some putty.  Fore and aft of the sail, you will find all the hatches marked, included the main access hatches as well as the ones covering the mooring cleats and bollards.

On the sail, most of the batches appear to be outlined, including the two main hatches that open onto the dive planes.  These were used when in port as easy access to docks, as well as for observation and mounting armed watches (guards).  None of the hatches are open so if anyone wants to do so, they’ll have to scratch build the interiors behind them.

The kit includes markings for all Skipjack-class submarines, including Scorpion. 

Out of the box, the kit builds as a submarine in its launch configuration and paintjob.  The two buoy hatches on the topsides are to be painted international orange.  That isn’t correct for an operational submarine.  you’ll have to do some research to decide how you want to paint your submarine.  If you hunt around, you can find some very useful advice on weathering, especially for the anti-fouling red on the lower half of the hull. 

The screw is the original five-bladed design.  The Skipjacks received seven bladed screws during refits in the early to mid- 1970s in order to correct a noise problem.  No biggie. If you build Skipjack from the box and change the paint scheme, you will get an historic ship from the time she sailed into Murmansk harbour and reputedly sat submerged a mere 30 or 40 metres off the end of a busy pier and watched goings-on in one of the old Soviet Union’s major naval bases.

-srbp-

Muskrat Falls Trends #nlpoli

Just for the fun of it, here is a graph of the frequency of searches for the term “Muskrat Falls” in Canada since November 2010.

According to Google the numbers on the graph represent the number of searches for the term relative to the total number of searches.   The numbers are not absolute values but are scaled and normalized.  To get an explanation of that check out Google Trends’ help section.

Aside from the peak in search activity right at the beginning, the most intense searching has been within the past couple of months.  Interest didn’t seem to ramp up on the project until the fall of 2011 except for a couple of brief periods that seem to coincide with when the House was open.

If you limit the search to just Newfoundland and Labrador, you get a fairly constant level of searching.

The letters mark relevant news stories.

-srbp-

From wonderment to bereavement #nlpoli

The decline in the quality of public life in our province over the past decade is matched by a decline in other places across Canada and in Ottawa.

For those who may not have noticed some of the commentary on this here are three pieces worth considering:

• Allen Gregg:  1984 in 2012  - the assault on reason
• Susan Delacourt:  a lesson in the art of political debate
• Chantal Hebert:  House of Commons no longer a source of wonder for a journalist

-srbp-

The Business Case for Muskrat Falls #nlpoli

All sorts of business people in Newfoundland and Labrador love Muskrat Falls.

Funny thing is that they don;t talk about risk, profits, cash flows, return on their investment, and other stuff you’d expect business people to talk about. 

Nope.  They say stuff like “We believe in good things for our province.”

Who doesn’t?

They say things like “… we believe we have the courage to harness the opportunity before us and make these things happen.”

So that started the old gears turning in your humble e-scribbler’s old noggin.  What would it be like if they listened to a business pitch for Muskrat Falls just the same way that Nalcor and the provincial government is pitching Muskrat Falls?

Let’s not get distracted by alternatives and public utilities board and megawatts and all that.  Let’s just talk about making the old staple product in business school:  widgets.  And just for the sake of convenience, let’s make the pitch to the province’s greatest living businessman, the Old Man Hisself.

Muskrat Falls – The Importance of Transparency #nlpoli

Nalcor will install new generating capacity at Portland Creek in the mid-2030s despite having about 1200 gigawatt hours of  electricity available from Muskrat Falls.

In his latest assessment - Muskrat Falls – The Importance of Transparency [scribd pdf] -  JM concludes that Nalcor apparently plans to build Portland Creek  at additional cost to consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador in order to keep capacity available at Muskrat Falls to meet the commitment to Emera.

Peckford Book Signings #nlpoli

Because some people have asked, here is a list of upcoming book signing opportunities by Brian Peckford for his memoir Some day the sun will shine and have not will be no more.

Check the Flanker Press site for more information on the book, including how to order.

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

2PM - 5PM
Costco, St. John's

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

6PM - 9PM
Gander Co-op

Thursday, October 25, 2012

1PM - 4PM
The Book Worm, Gander

6PM - 9PM
Gander Co-op

Friday, October 26, 2012

1PM - 4PM
Shoppers Drug Mart, Lewisporte

6:30PM - 9PM
The Bookmark, Grand Falls-Windsor

Saturday, October 27, 2012

1PM - 3PM
Island Treasures, Corner Brook

4PM - 6PM
Coles, Corner Brook

-srbp-

When engineering becomes imagineering #nlpoli

Nalcor issued a news release on Monday to correct inaccurate statements about the water management agreement between Nalcor and Churchill Falls (Labrador) Corporation.

Sounds good, except that Nalcor didn’t identify who made the statements.

Nalcor didn’t indicate hat the statements were.

Nor did the company indicate how the statements were inaccurate.

So basically, the company corrected nothing about nothing.

While that is telling – Nalcor claims aren’t backed by evidence -  that’s not the interesting thing.

The Separated at Birth Comparison

Mark Quinn, the guy who reports the news on CBC.

Stuart Bloom, the guy who owns the comic book store on everyone’s favourite show.

-srbp-

Hydro’s Problem Questions #nlpoli

As the Telegram reported on Saturday, the Public Utilities Board has suspended consideration of Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro’s 2013 capital works application.

The company is having trouble answering a couple of questions.

Here are the ones that are causing problems.

One fine Friday afternoon, or change versus more of the same #nlpoli

A little over a week ago, Kathy Dunderdale told the provincial Conservative annual meeting that her administration is overspending. Dunderdale acknowledged yet again what she and her predecessor have admitted since 2009. 

The provincial economy is overly dependent on offshore oil, Dunderdale told her fellow Tories.

Dunderdale and the Tories are at historic lows in the polls for a majority Tory government.  Dunderdale announced a cabinet shuffle to her caucus months ago and to the public weeks ago.

After weeks of waiting, Dunderdale finally changed her cabinet on Friday afternoon.

Stephen Harper and Principle #nlpoli

Premier Kathy Dunderdale, from her unscripted speech at the Tory party annual meeting, via the Telegram’s James McLeod:

We didn’t support the Harper government, people of Newfoundland and Labrador didn’t. You know, somebody who didn’t have principle could’ve walked away from the commitment to the loan guarantee. What would the consequence have been? We wouldn’t elect anyone for a long time to that party? He didn’t, he absolutely maintained his commitment to the people of this province. You’ll see what that means in the next couple of weeks, but it’s hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars. He didn’t have to do it, but he did it. He made a promise to the people of the province, and he kept it. And it’s important as Tories, because we tore strips off him when we believe he needed to have that done, and here was Miss Buffo out leading the crowd. Not everything has to be a brawl on the steps of Confederation Building, remember that too. But there comes a time when you’ve got to stand your ground, and b’ys, get out of the way, and that was one of them. I made no apologies then, and I don’t make them now.

-srbp-

Sally’s Cove, Labrador #nlpoli

During the last federal election two polling stations in the riding of Labrador closed for two hours after an Elections Canada worker drove away with the ballot boxes, according to the Toronto Sun.

According to the Sun:

A spokesman for Elections Canada said an employee in Labrador thought ballot boxes were for "training" and drove away with materials for about 20 minutes. The employee was then called back to the polling stations, located at a legion and a hall, by another officer and the station was reopened.

-srbp-

 

.

The Dangers of Being a Mythbuster – 50 is the new 70 #nlpoli

Look around and anyone can find a huge amount of information about Muskrat Falls and electricity in Newfoundland and Labrador.

For all that, though, there is a great deal of misinformation out there.  That only adds to confusion some people are experiencing.  As disappointing as it is, misinformation remains a fact of life in the Muskrat falls discussion.

As a couple of recent posts have shown, some of the misinformation turned up in a single online commentary recently posted. Something good can come out of everything, as it seems and so this third post corrects the misinformation and replaces it other issues and more substantive information.

The Challenge of Perspective #nlpoli

From Kathy Dunderdale’s unscripted speech to Conservative party delegates at the 2012 annual meeting:

Only the people who love us very much will be around when we finish this job because it takes over your life. I remember being in a Treasury Board meeting and somebody saying, you know, you can’t do that. You can’t expect somebody to drive a hundred miles a day and work for minimum wage, and somebody said, well sure, you ask Ross Wiseman to do it every day.

Loyola Sullivan and conflict of interest #nlpoli

From the report by federal conflict of interest and ethics commission into certain actions by former fisheries ambassador Loyola Sullivan:

In June 2011, after consulting with my Office about whether he could take the position, Mr. Sullivan took up the position of Vice President of Resource Management and Sustainability at Ocean Choice International (Ocean Choice). In that position he had several interactions with Fisheries and Oceans Canada and Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada related to matters of interest to Ocean Choice during his one-year post-employment cooling-off period. He also attended a consultation organized by Fisheries and Oceans on behalf of the Groundfish Enterprise Allocation Council.

During my examination I found that several of these interactions were made in order to persuade federal government officials to make a decision to the advantage of Ocean Choice and, in one case, to change a policy in accordance with the position of the Groundfish Enterprise Allocation Council. In my view, these interactions involved making representations. I have therefore found that Mr. Sullivan contravened subsection 35(2) of the [Conflict of Interest] Act.

-srbp-

The Dangers of Being a Mythbuster – More Thermal than Thermal #nlpoli

The issue of Holyrood and the future cost of thermal generation is a big part of the argument for Muskrat Falls.

What’s so amazing about it is that people can actually get so confused by something so straightforward.

The Power of Delusion #nlpoli

Kathy Dunderdale gave a speech to the hundreds of Conservatives who gathered in Gander last weekend for their annual convention.

The Telegram’s James McLeod transcribed most of it and posted it to his blog at the Telly website.

Dunderdale’s speech is amazing because, unlike her recent speeches, she didn’t rehearse every single word and gesture.  This one is all Kathy, speaking earnestly about what she believes.

The Dangers of Being a Mythbuster – Transmission Lines #nlpoli

As a rule, any commentary that purports in its title to bust myths usually winds up perpetuating a myth or two of its own.

Corollary: if it doesn’t propagate a few myths, there’s a danger that the same commentary will contain misinformation that will lead people off into the trees.

John Samms' recent post sets out to debunk a few myths about Muskrat Falls but winds up proving the old mythbuster rule and the corollary in the process.

Here’s how.

Conventional Wisdom #nlpoli

After a wild weekend in Suburbia in the Woods, the province’s ruling Conservatives turned up all over the talk radio shows going on about how there were so many Tiny Tories at the convention and how a chunk of the provincial executive was made up of people under 30 years of age.

Clearly, the Tories are bothered by something to do with age, as in they are loaded down at the top end with people who aren’t young.  Like say the Old Man, who was the oldest person elected Premier when he took office in 2003.

Or Kathy Dunderdale, who beat Danny by a good few years to be the oldest person ever elected Premier.

Or maybe they are just a-feared of the province’s New Democrats.

Dunderdale hits new record #nlpoli

Premier Kathy Dunderdale made a record-setting change to the senior ranks of the provincial public service on Friday with the appoint of Peter Au as the new assistant deputy minister of fiscal and taxation policy with the province's finance department.

This is the 40th change to the senior public service Dunderdale's made in a single year, bettering her previous record of 39 changes in 2011.  If she holds to her current pace, Kathy Dunderdale will make 49 changes in 2012.

-srbp-

The Language of Newfoundland Politics #nlpoli

Some of you may have noticed a couple of words turning up in any discussion of Muskrat Falls.

One is “confused”.

The other is “tired” as in tired of hearing about it.

These are very interesting code words, once you realise what they mean.

The Simple Litmus Test #nlpoli

by JM

There has been a new group of business people who have been formed in support of the Muskrat Falls Project. I would ask that these individuals review the following key facts and figures before they confirm their support of the project. I would also ask that they push the Government to answer the questions raised at the end of this short post

Same Old New Energy! #nlpoli

Thanks to the Telegram’s James McLeod and his Twitter feed from Gander, take a look at two of the resolutions from the Progressive Conservative.

There’s always more to see if you look #nlpoli

Watch the raw video of the Thursday news conference in which Premier Kathy Dunderdale, natural resource minister Jerome Kennedy, and finance minister Tom Marshall announced the end of a dispute with the companies developing the Hebron project.

Pay less attention to the details of the announcement itself than to the details of how they made the announcement.

Christmas will arrive early this year

Word from the hobby shop Thursday is that the USS Skipjack is on the way.

In 1/72 scale, this is going to be one big submarine:

-srbp-

Vote SRBP for Best Political Blog in Canada #nlpoli #cdnpoli

Sir Robert Bond Papers is in the running for Best Political Blog in Canada for 2012.

Round 1 voting is open and I respectfully ask for your support.

Click on the picture to cast your vote.

-srbp-

How much was that principle in the window? #nlpoli

Sending the third topsides module from Hebron outside the province was “absolutely unacceptable” to Premier Kathy Dunderdale back in June.

She was “extremely unhappy” and vowed to “pursue all avenues available” to her in order “to ensure that this very important work stays in Newfoundland and Labrador.”

A few months later, the absolutely unacceptable has become completely acceptable.  The only question – as it turned out – was the price.

Exploring the AIMS Commentary #nlpoli

Premier Kathy Dunderdale might cavalierly dismiss Gordon Weil’s commentary on Muskrat Falls but others – more thoughtful types – will find much in it to chew on.