Public too stupid to understand

Apparently, deputy premier and natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale believes firmly in the public’s right not to know what she’s up to.

She told an audience in Grand Falls-Windsor that “[i]t is probably wiser not to share information because people don ‘t understand the analysis that has to go into it once a proposal comes up, you have an obligation to do an analysis on it.”

Dunderdale was referring to the problems that resulted when the people of the province learned she and her cabinet colleagues were entertaining a proposal from a bankrupt company to take over the Grand Falls paper mill the provincial government mistakenly expropriated in 2008.

The province doesn’t want to comment any more on who the proponents may be, said the minister, given what happened with the Lott Paper incident where that news was revealed in the media.

“Once bitten, twice shy,” she said. “It underlines why you can’t share information, even though people ask the questions and they want to know.

In late June, Dunderdale told reporters that Lott, a German paper company, was interested in taking over the mill. What she didn’t tell the public – and apparently didn’t know – is that the company filed for bankruptcy protection in a German court.  Bond Papers posted that information two days after Dunderdale’s comment to reporters.

Confronted with the new information, Dunderdale’s department stuck to the original story and added that she was still waiting on a proposal from the bankrupt company.

Talks broke down however, with the company accusing the provincial government of overtly politicising their business proposal.

At that point, Dunderdale changed her story.  The proposal would have come from another, related company and not the one she had named. As it turned out, the proposal also wasn’t about making paper. And even though the provincial cabinet apparently wouldn’t entertain cash subsidies, Dunderdale and her cabinet colleagues were entertaining a proposal that reportedly included a request for more than $50 million in provincial cash.

Dunderdale also told her audience in Grand Falls-Windsor that she would be asking the nine companies that had expressed an interest in central Newfoundland wood to resubmit proposals.  None of them measured up the first time.

The most common proposal Dunderdale mentions is one to turn top quality trees into wood pellets.  While Dunderdale seems to downplay pellets because they don’t produce enough jobs, the reality is she is still thinking about pellets.  Everywhere else, pellets are what you make out of the sawdust and scraps from other high-quality wood product manufacturing.

But for all that, Dunderdale apparently thinks the people of Newfoundland and Labrador are too stupid to understand what she’s doing. Maybe what Dunderdale is really afraid of is that they understand all too well and that the only way she’ll survive any longer is if she keeps them in the dark.

Of course what else would one expect in an administration where the Old Man refuses to deliver his own campaign commitment to protect whistleblowers.

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Mystery company looking to buy AB fishing camp

A numbered mineral exploration company registered in Alberta but headquartered in Newfoundland and Labrador is looking to buy a fishing camp owned by AbitibiBowater.

Hunt River Lodge, located about 40 miles north of Hopedale, is listed by Sotheby’s International Realty at an estimated value of $3.5 million.  The mystery company is reportedly paying $1.4 million plus applicable taxes for the property.  AbitibiBowater must get the courts permission to sell the asset.

The main lodge plus two smaller outlying camps are on land leased from the provincial government for $500 annually.  The provincial government did not include the camp in the 2008 seizure of AbitibiBowater assets in the province.

The provincial government did, however, mistakenly expropriate the mill itself and all the associated environmental clean-up costs.

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Lowering the boom

Supposedly, there’s a baby boom in the province:

After years in decline, Newfoundland and Labrador’s birth rate has been steadily increasing in recent years — and the trend is expected to continue this year.

There isn’t really.

A steady increase or a boom.

And it isn’t clear from the Telegram front page story who expects the trend to continue.

First, the numbers.

In 2008, the number of live births in the province jumped by 300 to 4,905.  In 2009,  the number went up again by 35.  That’s not a steady increase.  It’s a big jump and then a tiny increase that is actually less than 10% of the total number of live births. Put another way, that’s almost a seven percent increase the first year and a point  seven percent increase – 0.7% (less than one percent)  - the next year.

This is not a trend. 

It’s curious but it isn’t a trend.

As for what will happen in 2010, look at it this way:  In 2008 and 2009, there were on average about 410 live births each month in the province, give or take.  If the same birth rate carried on into 2010, we’d expect to see about 3900 live births by  the middle of September (410 times 9.5)  As the Telegram notes, we’ve only reached 3300 or so by that time in 2010.

So unless people were making like bunnies nine or 10 months ago or there are a crop of twins and trips out there no one really has talked up, the provincial birth rate seems to be on track to come in well below the 2008 and 2009 figure. That’s even allowing that October is one of the big baby months according to some analysis. In fact, if the current trend holds, the birth rate might well be back to where it was in 2007:  around 4500 live births.

As for the Telly claim that someone expects the growth trend to continue, there’s no one quoted in the article who actually says that.  The Telly article includes a reference to a 2009 news release by the provincial centre for health information, but your humble e-scribbler had a few choice words about that piece and its dubious commentary when it came out.

The article also makes an obligatory mention of the provincial government’s breeding incentive program. That’s the one Danny Williams announced during the 2007 campaign with the infamous quote “we can’t be a dying race”, but that’s another story.

Basically, there’s a cash bounty of $1,000 for every live birth or adoption in the province. Aside from the fact these sorts of programs don’t usually work, this one isn’t likely the cause for the spike in births since it doesn’t really change what the provincial government’s own statistics agency identified as long term trends affecting the population:

The number of births has been trending downward for four decades because of declining fertility rates and, more recently, a decline in the number of women of child-bearing age.

A grand for successful copulation doesn’t really get at the core problem fewer people at the right age to have children wanting fewer children than previous generations.

Most likely, the two year increase in live birth rates came from the increase in migration that started in 2007.  All those young people who moved home to escape the recession may well have decided to carry on with their lives and have babies.  Since out-migration seems to have picked up again, it would only make sense that the birth rate is down, as the Telegram’s statistics suggest.

The real stunning figures from the Telegram article though – and in some respects the real story – are in the print edition but not in the online version.  In print, the Telly gave registered births in selected communities in 2009 and from January to September 2010.  Labrador City, with about 8,000 people there and in neighbouring Wabush saw only 88 births registered in 2009.  Bonavista had none in 2009 and has had two so far in 2010. Corner Brook (2006 population = 20,083) saw 650 births in 2009. meanwhile, St. John’s and its 100,000 or so residents registered 2629 births in 2009.  For those keeping track that was 53% of the total number of live births in the province that year.

Outside the St. John’s census metropolitan region, large swaths of Newfoundland and Labrador are basically devoid of people under 50 years of age.  Once bustling communities are collections of retirement homes. And in places like Grand falls-Windsor or Deer Lake, the local construction “boom” is pretty well all from retirees returning to the province from outside or people from smaller communities along the coast heading into the major centres.

What the demographic trends mean for the province is way more interesting than a minor – and temporary – shift in the birth rate.  It’s also a subject the local crop of politicians, from the Old Man on down, quite clearly don’t have a sweet clue what to do about.

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French fried over oil

Via nottawa, a link to a story by Canadian Press that so far has eluded local news media.

Seems Parti Quebecois leader Pauline Marois is a wee bit fried that, as the PQ members of the legislature claim, Newfoundland will be stealing Quebec oil in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. They attribute this to Premier Jean Charest’s supposed federalist-induced impotence.

The Quebec government imposed a moratorium on exploration in the Gulf.  Meanwhile, the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board approved this week plans to explore the part of the Old Harry field that is within the Newfoundland and Labrador offshore area.

Also via nottawa, you can find a few choice excerpts from the PQ questions in the Quebec National Assembly.  Like take this bit from Pauline Marois:

Il me semble que, si le premier ministre est vraiment sérieux, cultiver l'économie du Québec, appuyer l'économie du Québec, la première chose à faire, c'est, à tout le moins, de faire respecter nos droits, de nous défendre à Ottawa. On est en train de laisser Terre-Neuve piller nos ressources, voler notre pétrole, M. le Président...

Basically she says that if Charest were serious about developing the Quebec economy, he’d be protecting the province’s interests in Ottawa.  Instead, he is “letting Newfoundland pillage our resources, [and] steal our oil…”.

or this bit:

Mr. Speaker, the Premier of Quebec,offers us a pretty sad spectacle. He is absolutely incapable of responding to my questions and above all responding to the people of Quebec, who are very upset by the fact that this government does not defend us while Newfoundland is in the process of exploiting and exploring in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. We're going to assume the risks, and Newfoundland the benefits…

For his part, Charest noted – among other things -  that Marois called for a moratorium in August and now attacks the idea.  The whole exchange makes for some very interesting reading.

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Only Chips With My Fish Update:  In a post at labradore, you can find a comparison of the oddly similar rhetoric used by the Old Man hisself earlier this year and the Parti Quebecois energy critic in the National Assembly.  Apparently both were concerned with betrayal and taking sides.

No greater shame…third anniversary

In honour of the third anniversary of Danny Williams’ promise to bring a whistleblower protection bill before the House of Assembly in the spring of 2008, here are a few relevant links.

1.  The draft public interest disclosure law offered by Bond Papers to assist the Premier in keeping his promise.

Yes, you read that correctly: a complete piece of legislation ready for someone to lay before the legislature.  Could be government.  Could be the opposition. 

There are three parties in the legislature and either of them could introduce the bill.  Of course, if the government doesn’t want it, they will work to defeat it or stall the bill.  But since it is their promise that remains unkept three years later, any action to further delay the bill would only add ignominy on top of shame.

In any event, there’s the bill if anyone in the House of Assembly is genuinely interested in protecting public interest disclosure. So far all the people of Newfoundland and Labrador have heard from the three parties is blather.

2.  From May 2009, a post that picks up on some comments by the Premier with the conclusion that the Premier is evidently scared to death of a whistleblower protection law.  Frankly there’s no other reason for his failure to keep his own promise.

He’s obviously scared.

3.  From June 2009, here’s another post in which the Premier resorts to complete bullshit to deflect from his fear.

Well, fear or maybe he was just playing politics, like he did with a completely unfounded accusation he, himself, made in 2002.

4.  And just for good measure, in a province with one of the highest levels of unionisation in North America, not to mention the highest level of public sector employment in North America, a reminder that the province’s largest public sector union talks a lot about about protecting public interest disclosure but just can’t deliver.

Come to think of it,  there might be a shame that is at least equal to the unkept promise. Carol, Yvonne and Lorraine can collect their prize alongside the promise unkeeper himself.

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Breasts: they’re not just for gawking at

This is important.

66 at 6 in 2: We need to get 66% of new mothers still breastfeeding their newborns at six months and we need to do that within two years of making the commitment.

And if you want to know how far the province has come since 2006, let’s just say that the numbers today likely aren’t remarkably better than they were back then.

If we wait for politicians, nothing will ever get done.

October 1-7 is Breastfeeding Awareness Week.

Don’t just stand there staring.

Lead by example in your own little corner of the universe.

66 at 6 in 2.

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A leaf from Harper’s political playbook, by J. Layton

Jack Layton and the New Democratic Party want the federal government to drop the goods and services tax on home heating costs.

Layton had a wonderful story to go with his call, as recounted by Aaron Wherry at macleans.ca:

“Mr. Speaker, Frank Rainville is a senior in Sturgeon Falls, Ontario who told me about how his bills for basic utilities have gone up by $20 a month just this past month because of the government’s HST,” the NDP’s Jack Layton reported a short time later. “He asked me how he could cope with heating bills when he has to turn the thermostat on because it is cold up there. The fact is heating bills are going up all across the country and working families are struggling right now. Will the Prime Minister show some leadership, join with us and work to take the federal sales tax off home heating fuel now?”

Yes, folks, Jack Layton and his fellow new Democrats are standing up for the working poor, people and fixed incomes and all sorts of downtrodden, hard-done-by people. Well, at least that’s what the die-hard Dippers out there will tell you.

But just think about it for a second. Mr. Rainville is going to have to cough up an extra $20 a month for heating thanks to what Layton has taken to calling the Harper Sales tax.  Rainville’s on a fixed income and that 20 bucks will come in handy.  Even though Layton’s little HST cut is aimed primarily at voters in Ontario and British Columbia where the HST is very unpopular, there are plenty of Mr. Rainvilles throughout Newfoundland and Labrador and the same cut to the heating costs will help them out, too.

Yay, Jack.

Well, not so fast.

These sorts of blanket tax cuts – the stock in trade of conservatives  - have the wonderful effect of cutting costs and they have the even more wonderful effect – from a Connie perspective of helping rich people proportionately more than people like Mr. Rainville. In St. John’s someone in public housing will get a break, but the person down in King William Estates or one of the other swankier neighbourhoods springing up in St. John’s East will just love the cut on heating oil or electricity that it takes to make their blimp hangers all the more cozy in the cold January night.

If Jack Layton really wanted to help people on fixed incomes, he’d go for something other than a blanket tax cut. Layton and his crew would offer rebates or  - better still - tax breaks tied to income. That way the people who need the help the most could get it and those who can well afford to heat their massive homes can carry right on doing so while footing the bill for their choices.

And actually the problem is not just with giving a disproportionate big break to the wealthy – as the NDP idea would do – or carrying a huge public deficit while helping out the wealthy.  That’s all bad enough just as it is bad enough that the average Republican looking at this scheme would embrace Layton as a discipline of Karl.  

Jack Layton’s tax cut idea is also damned poor environmental policy. Canadians don’t need to be rewarding energy inefficiency or giving people the chance to consume more energy.   An across-the-board tax cut does just that.  It potentially makes the NDP vulnerable on the left from the Greens, but there seems to be a conscious effort in the NDP thinking that they should just look for more votes in places where they can fight Conservatives, like out west or in a couple of ridings in Newfoundland.  That’s pretty much in tune with the NDP position on the gun registry as well.

Now the NDP position isn’t all bad.  They do want to bring back an energy efficiency incentive program.  That’s a great idea and coupled with a targeted tax break scheme, it would be a progressive social policy.

Unfortunately, this isn’t about progressive social policy:  the New Democrats are playing politics like Stephen Harper.  This HST thing is just Connie-style retail politics.

And politically, it is a sensible  - if monumentally cynical - thing to do if you want to get elected.  Jack Harris in St. John’s East will win re-election handily with such an idea.  All the well-heeled people in his district will love his conservative policies while the people on fixed and low incomes will get a bit of cash to make them happy too.  Over in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl, the same thing applies even if there aren’t as many people with giant houses there.

Basically these sorts of Conservative-looking policies might help sagging New Democrat fortunes in a place like St. John’s where, as bizarre as the idea might seem, Conservatives will vote New Democrat if they can’t vote Connie for some reason.

It might work.  Too bad for Jack Layton and the New Democrats there likely won’t be an election for some months yet.  By the time people head to the polls federally, this sort of thing will likely be long forgotten.  But in the meantime it is interesting to see just exactly how much influence Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party have had on Canadian politics.

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Municipal affairs minister passes away after lengthy illness

Municipal affairs minister Diane Whelan died on Sunday after a lengthy battle with cancer.

The Premier issued a statement sometime on Sunday.  There is is no time on the release.

It is with a very heavy heart that I mourn the passing of my cabinet colleague and dear friend, Dianne Whalen; one of the most courageous individuals I have ever known and one of our province’s most devoted champions.

While valiantly battling cancer the strength of her spirit and the conviction behind her words was as passionate and unshakable as ever. Even during her illness, she continued to diligently advance the work of her department and participate fully in Cabinet, always determined to carry on with her responsibilities.

Whelan was hospitalised in late 2009 with an undisclosed illness.  She took a leave of absence from her cabinet duties, later returned to work but again took a leave of absence some time ago.

Whelan’s illness last year came hot on the heels of two high-profile departures from cabinet which prompted a cabinet mini-shuffle.  In July, the Premier appointed newly elected member of the House Paul Davis to serve as “Legislative Assistant” for the department.

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Traffic Drivers, September 27 – October 1

1. 24 French
2. The Politicisation of Public Emergencies
3. Cringeworthy 2
4. Jane Taber – Twit
5. Court docket now online
6. Recovery effort continues
7. Cringeworthy
8. For all the perception problems…
9. Freedom from Information Week:  the colour of invisibility
10. NL only province to post jump in EI claims in July

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Traffic patterns: September 2010

If you weren’t one of the 14,412 people generating 17,698 pageviews at Bond Papers in September, here’s what they were reading:

1. Jane Taber – Twit (the Globe’s gossip columnist)
2. Court docket now online  (the Provincial Court docket)
3. Cruise ends abruptly in St. John’s (Cruise ship problems)
4. Hurricane Igor Emergency Response: TASFU  (Enduring problems in provincial government’s emergency response)
5. Harper/Williams disconnect  (What the PM said DND sent to help with Hurricane Igor versus what the provgov announced)
6. Cruise ship sale and passengers “not even an issue”:  mayor (Doc O’Keefe puts his foot in his mouth…again.)
7. Katrina North:  the picture changes (Public complaints about the provincial government’s hurricane relief efforts)
8. Process stories, or real insiders don’t gab (The foolish election speculation in The Hill Times)
9. Bury my lede at Muskrat Falls (From August, the real news (not good by any means) buried in a recent media report on the Lower Churchill buried)
10. 24 French (The Premier and This hour has 22 minutes)

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Freedom from Information Week: the colour of invisibility

As labradore notes, at least one member of a Reform-based Conservative Party administration likes to use purple files to denote sensitive material to be given special attention as part of an access to information request.

Not surprisingly, another Reform-based Conservative Party in power likes to use purple files to denote sensitive information.  And, as regular readers will recall, that sensitive filing system officially does not exist.

Even though it does.

And the Premier admits it exists, but he refuses to release the information.

Because it officially doesn't exist.

When it comes to public access to government information the public has a legal right to obtain, it seems that purple is the colour of invisibility. Whatever these two Conservative administrations are afraid of, there's no doubt that fear lies at the heart of their obsession with secrecy.

That's why the Premier told reporters that if he had to release information people were looking for he'd "be outta here". Lest new readers get confused at this point or think the requests were intrusive, understand that one of the requests the Premier found unbelievably intrusive was one that asked for all his public speeches as Premier.


One big difference between the two Conservative approaches to secrecy, though is in the role played by political staffers.  In Ottawa, political involvement in the access to information process is considered controversial.

In St. John's, bureaucrats will testify under oath that it is perfectly acceptable for responses to information requests to be dictated by politicians and political staffers. Interestingly enough, while reporters covered that testimony as it it contradicted other claims about political interference, the reality is that the testimony suggested the level of political interference was routine.

But still, there are signs of sanity.  Your humble e-scribbler had a pleasant experience this past week.  One access co-ordinator in one department answered a simple inquiry with a simple answer.  Plus, she did so promptly and professionally.  Compare that to the refusal of three other more senior officials to even think about the same request and the lengthy delay it took to get them to refuse to provide simple information.

That's the difference between a culture of politically-driven secrecy  - call it a purple culture - and one that shows a respect for the law and for the public's right to know. Hats off to a public servant who does an honour to her chosen career.

What a fitting way to mark Right to Know week.

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NL population drops in Q2 #cdnpoli

Newfoundland and Labrador was the only province to experience a population loss in the second quarter of 2010, according to figures released Wednesday by Statistics Canada. The cause is primarily net interprovincial outflows, in other words outmigration. That’s also the first drop since 2008.

While the provincial government issued a news released last quarter trumpeting the gain of a mere 96 people, you are unlikely to see a release like it this month talking about a drop three times the size.

Here’s what the past five years looks like, by quarter.

Now it could be nothing at all but a blip.  Then again, it could be a sign of things to come.  Note that for the last three quarters the rate of growth has dropped dramatically.  That suggests the steam was going out of things and that the Q1 results were the peak of the curve.

You can see that more clearly if you look at this chart:

In less than a year, the province went from gaining 130 people in a quarter to losing 300.

And actually, this could also mean that the North American economy is on solid footing.  The change in migration patterns for Newfoundland and Labrador in Q3 2007 actually heralded the onset of the recession.  A long-term analysis of provincial population suggests that the population grows shortly before major recession.  Those are all people working elsewhere with relatively weak ties to the community who opt to come back to the province to weather the economic storm.  When things pick up, they head off again.

And as much as the province’s finance minister may like to believe otherwise, odds are that is what’s going on again.

Great news, wot?

Well, not really. The longer term demographic problems that come with that aren’t ones the current administration and its unsound financial and economic management are not ready to cope with.   Not by a long shot.

Don’t forget that in this pre-election and pre-leadership period, you can bet the government won’t be willing or able to do much to start adjusting to cope with the harsh reality of the economy and demographics.  In fact, the next 18 months are basically a write-off for serious government decisions to deal with the problem. 

On top of that you can forget the period between the election and whenever the new Premier arrives to replace the Old Man. And if that doesn’t wind up happening happen until a couple of years before the 2015 election you can almost write off dramatic policy shifts until that election is history as well.

Wow.

Not to worry sez you.  There’s oil.

Sure there is.

Unfortunately, production and royalties won’t be able to cope with the demand for added revenue.  There’s not much else going on to take up the slack and for good measure, the current administration plans to use oil money to fuel increases for education and health care and use exactly the same money to build the $14 billion Lower Churchill project.

Here’s lookin’ at you, kid…

…as you leave the province again.

At least we’ll always have Ottawa.

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24 French

Friday was a busy day for the province’s glorious leader.

Helicopter ride with Steve and Fabe out to visit places hit by Igor.

A bit of video fun somewhere in there.

For those who can’t read that, it says “vendredi, le 24 septembre 2010”.

Maybe if Mark Critch from This hour as 22 minutes knew about the helicopter ride long enough in advance, he could have had even more fun with the Premier’s French.

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When the status quo is not an option…

The newly elected premier of New Brunswick is promising to tackle a provincial budget deficit approaching a billion dollars by “holding the line” on taxes and eliminating “wasteful” spending.

Oh yes.

And he’ll balance the budget in four years.

It’s going to be very interesting to see how he manages to sort out New Brunswick’s financial mess, at the same time, promising no radical change.

The New Brunswick Tories have their work cut out for them.

A new Progressive Conservative government led by David Alward will:

• Cancel future tax reductions f or the 1,300 richest New Brunswickers, who have an average income of $450,000, announced by Shawn Graham last year. This move will allow New Brunswickers to keep more than $120 million over the next four years to tackle the deficit and protect front line services, senior care and education for our children.
• Target a two percent reduction in wasteful and unnecessary spending while protecting spending on priority programs in health, education and services to those in need. Under the leadership of a temporary Government Review Office, this action will result in savings of $150 million annually.
• Create a “Taxpayers First” website for people to submit their ideas on where to save money in government to reduce the deficit and where to invest in better programs and services.
• Hold the line on cutting corporate taxes to 10%, still the lowest rate in the country, preserving $25 million in annual funding for government programs.
• Reduce by 50% the small business tax rate during our four-year term.
• Require that the Auditor General produce a special report on the province’s finances 60 days before each fixed election date.
• Propose new laws to start down the road to balanced budgets within four years.
• Increase the frequency of financial reports so that New Brunswickers can judge our performance.
• Propose new rules on how much the provincial government can spend in any one year, including a legislated cap on total spending that can only be exceeded under special circumstances.
• Bring forward legislation requiring government to table a deficit reduction plan with every budget, and that the Auditor General verify the results annually.
• Encourage more collaboration between government departments to promote efficiencies and share common services.

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For all the perception problems…

As Brigadier Tony Stack reminded everyone in an interview with CBC Radio on Tuesday [audio file] , the 1,000 members of the Canadian Forces at work on relief operations in Newfoundland are really just adding to a substantial effort already done by provincial government employees and volunteers.

The Town of Bonavista lifted its state of emergency on Tuesday.  That’s another milestone in what will be a long road to complete recovery.

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Cringeworthy 2

Via Globe gossip columnist Jane Taber, what turns out to be a surprisingly perceptive appraisal of the Old Man’s latest foray into semi-pro television humour:

He also learned how to say a couple of other choice phrases in French: “Miss, miss,” the Premier says, waving his hand impatiently while his seatmate, a little boy, looks quizzically at him. “I’ve got a question. How, how do you say, ‘Quebec is getting away with highway robbery’ in French?”

In case you were wondering, this is a joke. Mr. Williams is a guest on CBC’s comedy show, 22 Minutes, Tuesday night. But it’s not very funny; it’s cringe-worthy.

Good thing the Old Man wasn’t thinking of a leap to federal politics when he finally hangs up the local crown.

Maybe by then Mark will be looking for a replacement.

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Cringeworthy

What better time to issue a news release noting that a whole bunch of volunteers are helping out after a disaster than four days into it and long before the thing is over?

The wording, of course, must have the ring of a rejected greeting card to increase the sincerity of the sentiment behind the release.

Oh yes:  Don’t forget to plug your website and advertising campaign with the slogan that in no way is the subject of guffaws and derision across the province.

Finish with a snappy close that in absolutely no way came out of government-issued phrase generator.  Like “to help ensure that [insert event type here] happens in the most safe and efficient way possible.”

The provincial government agency responsible for the volunteer sector – Dave Denine, minister - would never be so tacky.

Would they?

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The politicisation of public emergencies

CBC commentator Bob Wakeham [CBC Radio audio file observed Monday morning that:

Also last week the emergency measures organization seemed to keep a low profile.  perhaps its employees were doing what they were supposed to be doing, but some of my journalistic friends working this hurricane story told me EMO seemed more than willing to hand over visual and public responsibility to cabinet ministers, to talking heads all of whom one would think know little or nothing about these matters, certainly a lot less than officials with a specific mandate to deal with, as the name implies, emergencies.

Right after saying that, Wakeham noted that there did not seem last week to be a sense of immediacy to the emergency response.

These two elements are connected.

And they tie as well to an observation made later Monday morning by the host of the morning talk show in the province.  Randy Simms wondered if the province’s fire and emergency management agency had a communications plan and any people responsible for carrying it out. Simms likened the situation to a disaster in the United States or the cougar crash.  He wondered where were the daily  - or even more frequent - technical briefings that featured, front and centre, the people actually delivering the emergency service, telling the rest of us what they were doing.

What Simms is talking about is what one expect in any other part of North America. Effective public communications are an integral part of recovery operations. Priority should go to basic information – where to find shelter, contact numbers to report problems, etc. – so that people who need help can get it.

This is a basic communications principle:  give people the information they need.

Regular operational briefings allows the emergency managers to make sure that accurate information on the entire emergency gets to the public using news media.  A typical briefing would include maps showing local situations and the type of problems being dealt with.  People get information.  They can track progress.  As events develop they can gain confidence that things are getting better. They can also better assess their own situation and make sensible decisions about their own situation;  they may need to just hang tough and weather the discomfort.  Or they can seek help.  Either way, information helps people make the right decision and have confidence.

In the modern age, officials should be using websites, Twitter, and Facebook to help push out detailed information. These can also be ways of feeding information into the emergency management room. 

News media bring pictures.  E-mails and twitter posts can give clues to where problems and that will supplement the information coming to the operations centre from health, fire, emergency, roads and other officials who should be present in the command centre.

The competence of the recovery - readily displayed to the public - instills public confidence.

St. John’s housing market feels national slowing trend

From RBC Economics:

Atlantic Canada’s housing market was not immune to the significant slowdown in activity that has swept across the country since spring. In the last few months, housing resales in the region fell back to the lows reached during the late 2008 to early 2009 downturn. The decline was felt across the board, including areas, such as St. John’s, which were on a tear earlier this year. The cooling in demand loosened up market conditions a little – they were very tight at the start of this year – and restrained home price increases.  In turn, this limited the rise in homeownership costs in the region. Depending on the housing type, RBC Housing Affordability Measures moved up between 1.1 and 1.5 percentage points in the second quarter and remain very close to long-term averages. Overall, housing affordability in Atlantic Canada
continues to be quite attractive and signals little in the way of undue
stress at this point.

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NL only province to post jump in EI claims in July

The number of Employment Insurance claimants dropped in every province in Canada in July compared to June except in Newfoundland and Labrador.  The province saw an increase of 2.4% in EI claims in July, matching the increase seen in June from May.

Year over year, the number of claims is down 16.2%.

In June to July 2009, the number of EI claims went up by 6.5% but then dropped by 8.7% the next month. 

Over the past year, the number of claims has dropped each month, except for the past two.  Most months, the drops were modest, ranging from 0.0% to 1.3%.  Except for the July to August 2009 drop of 8.7%, the largest drop was 3.2% from October to November 2009.

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