Dundernomics 101: the promise of problems ahead

Take a look at this picture. 

It comes from Wade Locke’s presentation at a conference of the province’s credit unions in Gander in the latter part of May.

The blue line is government income (revenue).  The red line is government spending (expenditure).

When the blue lie is above the red line, you have a surplus.  When the red line is above the blue line you have a deficit.  The distance between the blue and the red line is the size of the surplus or deficit in any given year.

Let’s zoom in on the last bit there because it shows a period where government spending is going to outstrip income in every single year.  yes, despite being a have province and pulling in billions in oil money every year, the current administration is forecast to rack up the public debt by plain, old-fashioned overspending.

Now there are a couple of things to note here. 

First of all, Locke is allowing for constant spending.  As he notes in the text under the slide, it is actually different from the provincial government version that claims a drop in spending three years out.

Given that the current budget shows a sizeable increase in spending you can safely forecast a five percent increase in annual government spending in every single one of those years.  That’s actually much less than what the Tories have done since 2003 but let’s be  - no pun intended – conservative in our forecast of their overspending.

Second of all, let’s look at Locke’s explanation for this problem:  “growth in oil royalties does not offset loss of $540 million in Atlantic Accord monies in 2011-2012” 

There are two words for this:  pure crap.  In more polite terms, this is where Locke’s economics proves woefully unable to contend with a  fundamental problem in government policy. His comments, as a result, are simplistic in the extreme and – at the very best – misleading. 

What you have here – in simplest terms – is a government that has no control whatsoever over public spending.  The reason spending outstrips income is because the provincial government lacks a policy that would allow it to establish spending priorities and to stick with them.

What’s more, those big blue spikes there in the middle and the surpluses they represent are purely accidental.  The only reason they exist is because the money flooded in so fast that the finance ministry ran out of places to spend the money during the year.

Sound fiscal management – spending public money wisely – is the most fundamental responsibility that a responsible government has.  If a government doesn’t control spending it can wind up, in the extreme, in the situation newfoundland found itself in the early 1930s.

All Locke does here is offer an excuse by trying to shift responsibility from the government responsible for the mess to one that isn’t. What’s more, even if the federal government agreed to continue sending $500 million annually to St. John’s any provincial government that cannot control public spending will always be running up deficits.

What is truly chilling in this slide is that last bit.  It ends in 2017, the same year the current administration forecasts it will have finished building the multi-billion dollar Muskrat Falls project. 

Locke has a good chart of the debt over the next six years.  What you have to realise is that he is basing it, apparently, just on the growing deficits on annual spending.  Locke rightly notes that any changes in spending or in oil prices will make the deficit in any one year bigger or smaller than he has shown it.

If you can’t pick out the numbers there, the last one is $10.5 billion.  That’s the same number it was in 2003 when the provincial Conservatives took power.  And as Locke notes, things don;t get better after that point.

Things also aren’t really going to be as rosy as those numbers might appear to some.  Locke left out – apparently – the debt resulting from the Muskrat Falls project. 

Conservatively, you can add another $5.0 billion to that figure.  That’s because the $6.0 billion the Dunderdale crowd say that Muskrat will cost is laughably low.  It will likely wind up costing closer to $10 billion than not.  Even if they can somehow use cash reserves or other money to keep the borrowing down, the provincial government and Nalcor won’t be able to avoid borrowing about half of the total cost of the project.

And if all that doesn’t leave you cold, just remember that Wade Locke usually makes comments that pout the current provincial administration in the best light possible.  The fact he delivered a talk recently that suggests there are serious problems is a sign things are nowhere near as rosy as some would have you believe.

There are problems ahead.

Serious problems.

The current administration helped create the problems.

They have no intention, let alone a plan, to deal with the problems.

That is Dundernomics at work.

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Can Len Simms be far behind?

Ross Reid quit his job as deputy minister of the Penny Rowe department and a short time later picked up a new gig as the provincial Conservatives’ campaign manager for the fall general election.

No one saw that coming, for sure. 

That’s exactly what Ross did in 2007.

Can Len Simms be far behind?  He’s the former Tory party leader running the housing corporation.  In 2007, Len quit to handle a campaign job and then took up his old gig again after the election was over.

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Dundernomics 101: All your toasters are belong to us

labradore does yet another fine job exposing the completely ludicrous claims of those backing Kathy Dunderdale’s Empire of Debt, doing business as the Muskrat Falls project.

Specifically, labradore tackles the idea that electricity demand in the province is growing such that the only sensible alternative to the current situation is to build this super expensive project and force local ratepayers to pay the full freight for it.  Excess power – and there’ll be lots of it – would be sold outside the province at huge discounts, courtesy of the fine folks in what noob Bloc MP Ryan Cleary calls Newfoundland Labrador. 

There are no conjunctions in his world-view apparently.

In any event, labradore offers up two charts compiled from official government figures.  They show energy demand in two different ways.

See if you can spot a growth in demand.

Unlike Nalcor’s open house propaganda sessions, there won’t be a hundred bucks as a door prize for showing up to this little exercise. 

You could, however save yourself from doubling your own electricity rates so other people can profit by Kathy Dunderdale’s folly.

Oh and to understand the title you have to read the quote from Hansard over at labradore.  make sure you turn away from the screen when you do the spit-take.  no need to get the computer all mucked up.

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Give Danny the money

Your humble e-scribbler is no fan of handing public cash to private sector companies for any reason.

And make no mistake: when Danny Williams claims the provincial government would make its money back 20 fold on the hockey team, he is as full of shite as he has ever been.

But here’s the thing:  giving taxpayer cash to private business is what Danny and his crew love to do. It is not new government policy but since 2003, the Conservatives have handed out money hand over fist in a way the province hasn’t seen in maybe 50 years or more. 

Few project, if any, have been unworthy of their dole and more often than not the cash goes with no strings attached.

The provincial Conservatives have been generous with everyone’s money:

• A boot company pocketed $8 million on a promise to expand its production and hire more people in the province.  They chopped workers instead and so far there’s no word on whether or not they will have to pay any of the cash back.
• A bankrupt paper company that government was still willing to talk to even after their financial state made the news.
• How about half a million in cash, free, for setting up a marine engine service centre in a land-locked city?
• Cash and tax breaks for a television show.
• Cash and grants totalling $4 million for a shelter-making business on the Burin Peninsula.
• The provincial government stepped in to pay $30 million so AbitibiBowater didn’t have to pay their pensioners in this province.
• Emera and Muskrat Falls:  free power up front and a huge discount on any extra power they buy.
• Any place other than Newfoundland and Labrador will be able to get Muskrat Falls power for less than cost:  Dunderdale said so.
• A software company got an interest free loan for $325,000 on the promise it would create work.  18 months later the company shut its local office.
• SAC Manufacturing:  $675,000 four months before the company closed.

With that litany of give-aways a half million for Danny Williams is absolutely nothing.  Surely Williams or one of his companies can qualify for programs under Williams’ old business department or the aptly-named InTRD crowd Dunderdale used to run.  There are so many pots of cash with so many vague or non-existent rules that the provincial government could actually underwrite a substantial part of Danny’s plan.

The only serious question is why Dunderdale won’t do give Danny the cash he wants.

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Dundernomics 101: the cost of doing business

Premier Kathy Dunderdale, displaying her keen awareness of mathematics – among other things -  in the House of Assembly on Monday, May 9:

Mr. Speaker, Hebron costs are driven by reserves, as are most projects in the offshore. So as we do our delineation work and we find out exactly how much oil is there, then capital costs increase or decrease accordingly.

Mr. Speaker, as a result of this work on Hebron, reserves have gone up by 11 per cent. Our costs in capital construction have increased from $360 million to $480 million, Mr. Speaker, and it will also mean an increase of over 50 per cent to the Treasury of Newfoundland and Labrador in royalties and benefits.

Erm.

Not exactly.

Finding more oil in a field doesn’t necessarily increase the capital costs up front.  At Hibernia, for example, the capital costs didn’t jump as they found more and more oil.  The reason is that they could pump the oil out of the ground by drilling wells from the GBS or by using another cheap method.

Operating costs will change, of course.  That’s because they will have to run the production facility in order to get the oil out of the ground.  But day-to-day costs of keeping the wells going is not the same as capital cost, as in construction costs for new facilities to get the oil out of the ground.

In this case, it seems that the Hebron partners have decided to exploit this new oil with tie backs. Odds are that this new oil is some of the light sweet crude in the field. That stuff is easier to get at than the heavier stuff that comprises most of the oil at Hebron.  Plus it also commands a higher price for the crude and yields more reined products out the other end of the refinery.

Tie-backs are essentially pipes that run along the seabed.  They are a relatively cheap way to pump oil since you are not building a new ship or gravity structure to get at the oil.  Instead you just run these giant straws from the existing platform out to the oil.  Bob’s yer uncle.

So this idea that more oil drives up capital costs is just whack.

Then there is the math on the jump in costs.

Used to be the share of costs for Nalcor was $360 million.  Now it is $480 million. That is not an 11% increase.

That’s a 33% jump.

Curious.

Curiouser, it becomes when you realise that while the House of Assembly was closed for a lengthy Easter break, the public found out that costs for the Hebron project had jumped by not 11% or 33% but 66%. 

From $5.0 billion to $8.3 billion.

Something does not add up here.

And it really does not add up when you look at the Premier’s claim that the provincial government’s royalties and benefits will jump by more than 50% as a result of an 11% increase in the oil reserves.

Let’s put some hard numbers on this. 

Let’s say, for argument sake, that the total amount of oil in the field was originally supposed to be 500 million barrels.

An 11% increase would give you a new total of 55 million barrels more oil.

According to the Premier, it cost $360 million for the province’s share of getting the 500 million barrels out of the ground. Finding 55 million more barrels didn’t lower the cost overall or the cost per barrel.  According to Kathy Dunderdale that small amount of oil will cost  - relatively speaking  - more than twice as much per barrel as the original oil.

That’s not a very attractive prospect.  The more oil you find, the more expensive each new chunk takes to produce it.  In fact, it makes no sense to keep finding more oil at Hebron if that is the case.  It won’t take too long before you have boosted costs to the point where the project would never be profitable.

Ah-ha sez you.

But those tiny extra amounts of oil actually produce more profit than the entire Hebron field.

After all, that’s what Kathy Dunderdale said and, Pakled that she is, Kathy is smart.

So it must be true.

Yeah, well, no.

What Kathy said was that this 11% more oil, the stuff that costs twice as much per unit to produce will actually return to the public treasury 50% more royalty and benefits.

To quote a famous politician, nothing could be further from the truth.

Simply put, royalty is a function of the quantity of oil, the price per barrel and the cost of getting it out of the ground. 

Let’s say that those original $500 million barrels produced royalty for the province of $500 million dollars.  According to Dunderdale, the 55 million new barrels would produce more than $250 million or roughly five times the return per barrel of any other barrel of oil.

Theoretically that could happen if the 55 million barrels were somehow handled differently than any other.  But they aren’t.  They are all barrels of oil sold at the same time as others for the same price and under the same royalty regime.

Clear?

Between you and Kathy Dunderdale that makes one of you.

That concludes today’s lesson in Dundernomics.

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Well, she asked for one…

PREMIER DUNDERDALE: Mr. Speaker, if somebody can name a reason why this government would not want Kiewit to be successful in this contract earning thirty-five years of work for people of the Province, Mr. Speaker, I would like to know what it is.

Condition for a loan guarantee?

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The Galaxy Quest for Relevance

Where is Jason Nesmith when you need him?

The fictional commander of the fictional star ship Protector at least took a firm stand when delivering a stock line:

Never give up! 

Never surrender!

Noob Bloc NDP member of parliament Ryan Cleary could only deliver a weak-assed line among a string of other superficial comments when he told CBC’s Debbie Cooper that in his new lifestyle as a politician, “there’s give and take, there’s compromise, but I’ll only compromise so far.”

Compromise on what, one might ask?

Clearly not spending public money.

Cleary promises to fly to his home in St. John’s every weekend.

Beyond that Cleary is not very clear on most things.

And why should he?  The guy knew nothing about politics before he got into, nothing about the Commons and the role it plays and after four weeks of MP school he is barely scratching the surface of what he doesn’t know. 

Heck, Cleary is stuck at the “it’s too hot up here, give me the ocean breeze and snow” kinda folksy bullshit that people haven’t heard in 60 odd years.

Folksy bullshit.

That and another piece of folksy bullshit in his royal commission to figure out what happened to all the fish.   (Hint:  Ask people  - like Gus Etchegary  - who helped slaughter them all). 

Radio host Randy Simms asked him what process Cleary would use to get his beloved royal commission on the cod fishery going. 

Process? Cleary asked, as Simms talked.  You could practically see his head cocking to one side like the confused canine.  After a couple of seconds he launched into a list of things that made it pretty obvious that Cleary had no idea what he needed to do in order to accomplish anything in Ottawa beyond the most basic stuff.  

Cleary is clearly in way over his head.  What’s worse, Cleary hasn’t realised he is in over his head.  Instead he is ready with the pledge to follow all courses, wherever they may lead and blah blah and then blah blah some more until blah and blah.

Cue the folksy bullshit, again.

Being a member of parliament is not the greatest thing in the world but it is also not a great backwater where a guy can while away his days sending in “True Facts” submissions to National Lampoon like Dave Rooney used to do.

You can do a lot of good for people in Ottawa as a member of parliament.  The kinds of people who write crap about Jackie Layton and spotting him a hundred seats never understand that because they are too wrapped up in themselves to appreciate how fundamentally ignorant they are. 

Now that he’s on the other side, Cleary thinks MPs are put on pedestals, as he said a couple of times during interviews over the past 24 hours.  That complete lack of insight into anything, including himself apparently, is a recipe for disaster for Cleary, his party and for his constituents.  It’s why your humble e-scribbler offered the view that this guy could be a disaster waiting to happen.   Four weeks later and nothing has changed.

Still, it’s early days.

Free advice is worth what you pay for it but here goes anyway:  what Ryan should be doing is keeping his head down and his mouth shut.  Spend the summer listening, asking questions and learning. 

He’s got four years.  If Cleary applies himself, he could turn out to be a half-decent member of parliament.  He might get some good done along the way.

If he keeps going along his current path, he can join a litany of ex politicians who remain long after their careers are over where Ryan is today:  on a quest of galactic proportions for relevance.

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Crude price forecasts don’t support Dunderdale’s empire of debt #nlpoli

Crude oil prices are the pedestal on which Kathy Dunderdale’s empire of debt called Muskrat Falls is built.

The provincial Conservative’s plan to burden the people of Newfoundland and Labrador with a huge public debt and grossly increased electricity prices – while shipping cheap power out of the province – is based on one simple premise.

From the time Kathy Dunderdale first unveiled the scheme,  she keeps insisting that oil prices will skyrocket between now and 2017 when the project is supposed to start producing electricity. 

Without Muskrat Falls, according to Dunderdale, people on the island of Newfoundland will be forced to pay ever higher amounts for electricity as oil climbs higher.  The culprit is the Bunker C fuel needed to make electricity as Holyrood.

Oil is supposed to be more than $120 by 2017 and at $200 by 2020 in order to make the Conservatives’ Muskrat Falls scheme work.  That’s the only way that a $10 billion megaproject of the sort they are talking about might make any sense at all.  That is the only way – theoretically – anyone can talk about a single project that produces electricity at a rate of 14.3 cents a kilowatt hour and thinks it is cheap.

These are not comments from just before Christmas last year, mind you.  Kathy Dunderdale used exactly the same claim on the last day of the House of Assembly before the fall general election:

It is feasible because we will charge 14.3 cents a kilowatt hour, which will be roughly the equivalent of what people will be paying on the isolated system in 2016.

To give a sense of just how ludicrous the Dunderdale forecast is, consider that the Conservatives’ favourite provincial economist isn’t backing her projections.  At a presentation to a recent conference in Gander, Wade Locke flashed a slide of forecast Brent crude oil prices that is distinctly at odds with the nightmare scenario Dunderdale has been using to justify her grand design.

Locke is using a forecast that shows crude in 2017 at a mere $100 a barrel, or about half of what Dunderdale needs to justify her forecasts.

Locke’s chart takes its numbers from the most recent forecast by GLJ Consultants.

What’s more, you don’t see oil going really close to the $120 a barrel they would need to hit in order to drive prices high enough to justify the huge increase that would have to hit in 2017 to start paying for Muskrat Falls.

Her logic – after all – is that by the time we get to 2017, we’ll already be paying so much for electricity, Nalcor can swap Muskrat Falls for crude and we won’t feel any difference.

That doesn’t look likely, does it?

Of course it doesn’t.

If Muskrat Falls proponents get their way, people will feel a huge difference.

Monday? Back to “No!”

Kathy Dunderdale told reporters on Monday that she was clear in her answers before.

That explains why she was back again for a third day trying to find her position on cash for jock straps.

To recap, the provincial sports minister said on the first day he was open to considering a proposal.  day Two, Kath had him unequivocally reject it.

Kath then said she and her minister had only looked at a preliminary proposal with no details and so they rejected it.  If, however, the jock straps would send along more paperwork, she’d have another look at it. 

In case you’ve lost sight of the government’s position in there it has been yes, no, and yes, and each of them equally firm, final and unequivocal.

So there you have it.

Well, that’s the end of it until something else happens and Kathy changes her mind yet again.

Let’s not forget, by the way, that this is the same Kathy Dunderdale who had some difficulty telling people what happened back in 2006 with Joan Cleary and the public tender act violations.  Dunderdale claimed the Act wasn’t involved when – as she later admitted – it was.

And, if you think this story is over, just note that in his Tuesday afternoon scrum on the whole project, Danny Williams did two things worth noting.

First, he admitted he is behind this project, putting his own money into the venture. A couple of days ago he was holding himself out as just a facilitator.

Second, Williams notes that he’s the guy who got Kathy her job. That’s a none-too-subtle hint.  Someone said once Danny Williams will be enemies with everyone at some point.  Looks like it Kathy’s turn.

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If this is Friday, it must be yes…

Or is it no?

First, they were going to give Danny his cash for his hockey team.

Then 24 hours later they decided  - emphatically and unequivocally – that the new answer was “no” because the government did not fund that sort of thing.

But now with Danny nipping at their heels and few of his loyal toadies croaking away, Kathy Dunderdale is now telling Danny that if he submits another request they’ll have another look at the idea and maybe give the multi-millionaire and his buddies a few hundred thousands taxpayer dollars every year to help them rent some jock straps or something.

Perhaps Kathy was persuaded to shift her position – yet again - by Danny’s earnest reminder of how much money had had given to this and that and the benefits he’d delivered to the other:

"...I've given my heart and soul to the city and the province," said Williams. "I've given to the PC party, to my colleagues in the cabinet and the caucus, including Kathy Dunderdale but this will not affect my zeal or drive to do things for this province."

All principle converts to cash, indeed.

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Reductio ad argentum: senatorial elections version

With the Conservatives who have been running the province since 2003, everything reduces to cash. 

For them, the only principle is cash.

Not surprisingly, when it comes to the idea of electing senators to represent the people of Newfoundland and Labrador in the national parliament, Premier Kathy Dunderdale said this:

Mr. Speaker, there are still a lot of questions that need to be answered. For example, who is going to fund it? Who is going to pay for it? Mr. Speaker, when we get the answers to those questions, then we will say whether or not we are in favour of elected senators.

Yes, whether or not Kathy supports democracy comes down to how much it might cost.

Come to think of the past seven or so years, this does explain a lot.

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Fortis buys Vermont power utility

Fortis Inc. (FTS-T) announced Monday it will buy Central Vermont Public Service Corporation. CVPS serves 160,000 customers throughout the state.

This is the first American purchase for Fortis, a company that owns electricity generation and distribution services in Canada and Belize.

The reported price tag for the purchase in US$700 million including $230 million of debt.

Here’s a quote from Fortis chief executive Stan Marshall, taken from the abysmally written Fortis news release:

“The acquisition of CVPS represents the initial entry by Fortis into the U.S. regulated electric utility marketplace and establishes a foundation for Fortis to grow our utility business in the United States,” says Stan Marshall, President and Chief Executive Officer, Fortis Inc.  

“CVPS is a well-run utility whose operations are very similar to those of our Canadian regulated  utilities, allowing us to use our collective competencies to further enhance service to customers and returns to our shareholders,” explains Marshall.  
 
Based on financial information as at March 31, 2011, following the Acquisition, the total assets  of Fortis will increase by approximately 7% to approximately $13.9 billion.  The Corporation’s  regulated electric and gas utility operations  will account for approximately 55% and 37%, respectively, of the total assets of Fortis.  Regulated utility assets in Canada and the United States will account for approximately 85% of the total assets of Fortis.

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Muskrat Fails #nlpoli #cdnpoli

A new website tackles the disaster that is Muskrat Flls proposed by Premier Kathy Dunderdale.

Amazing what you can do, if you want to.

Predictable Update:  In the CBC story on this Liberal initiative, take a look at the comments.  Spot how many are not Tory plants of the usual kind trotting out the same old tired lines over and over.

 

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Other campaign music: Brian Tobin

Popular music is something of a fixture in political campaigns, both fictional and real.

“You are my sunshine” and “Man of constant sorrow” turn up in O brother, where art thou? during a Pappy O’Daniel’s campaign.  Franklyn Roosevelt used “Happy days are here again.”  Harry Truman naturally liked “I’m just wild about Harry.”

Closer to home, there was a tiny bit of comment about the use of popular music by local campaigns.  Kathy Dunderdale entered her coronation to a song by Alecia Moore – Pink – that featured the lyrics:

I got lot of style, check my gold diamond rings
I can go for miles if you know what I mean

and

I'll be burnin' rubber, you'll be kissin' my ass
Pull up to the bumper, get out of the car
License plate says Stunner #1 Superstar

This past weekend, the Liberal organizers decided to use Trooper’s “Raise a little hell” as the music for Yvonne Jones’ walk-in music.

So that got your humble e-scribbler to a thinkin’ back to other songs that might have been used by political campaigns.

What better place to start than with a song that seemed to sum up former Premier Brian Tobin’s tenure but that was, of course, never used?  The Tobinator never seemed to settle into the province.  From the day he came back in early 1996, his attention always seemed to be replacing Jean Chretien down the road a piece. Tobin freaked out at anyone who suggested things weren’t great during his reign. it seemed that he wanted desperately to have a successful term as Premier to use as a notch on the old resume if he ever tried to move into 24 Sussex.

And when Tobin kept his federal leadership fund-raising going and called a second general election only a couple of years, it seemed like he never let the family unpack the moving boxes.  You know.  Because he could never be sure just when he’d have to leave suddenly and go back to where his heart really lay.

Which is of course what he did in October 2000.  Only Danny Williams – Brian seems like a test drive for Williams’ style in hindsight - left office in a more unseemly haste.

All of that is why it seemed Tobin should have used another Trooper song as his theme:  after all he was here for a good time, not a long time.

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Your world. Your choice. Your future.

Memorial University granted an honorary degree on Friday to Edsel Bonnell.

As the official news release put it:

“In essence a man with two careers, Mr. Bonnell has excelled at both.

Fifty years ago, Edsel Bonnell was the first person in Newfoundland to become a professional public relations consultant, winning numerous national awards, becoming in 2002 an honorary fellow of the Canadian Public Relations Society and, in 2005, a life member of the same organization.

From 1989-96 he took these skills into government where he served as chief of staff and senior policy advisor to Premier Clyde Wells, chairing both the Economic and the Social Strategic Planning Groups.

In musical circles he is best known for his role as founder and leader of the Gower Youth Band. This began in 1973 with the support of Gower Street United Church but it was intended to be — and has remained — non-denominational.

Educated at Memorial University, Mr. Bonnell has been recognized for his community service work in being named St. John's Citizen of the Year (1984), a Member of the Order of Canada (2001) and was inducted into the Hall of Honour at the St. John's Kiwanis Music Festival (2004).”

Edsel got the rare honour of a standing ovation from the graduates and their guests on Friday.

The reason is his address. 

At turns entertaining, frank and provocative, it was fundamentally a message of hope and a wellspring of optimism.

The speech was essentially what Edsel is.

In Edsel’s honour and to give you all a fine start to your week, here is Edsel’s convocation address, in its entirety.  It is exactly as he wrote it except in a couple of places where the paragraphing is changed to ease online reading.

 

Address to Convocation

May 27, 2011

Dr. Edsel J. Bonnell

The thing you often notice about people who receive honours and accolades, whether in Hollywood or Holyrood, is their apparent discomfort. The comments you hear are “I don’t really deserve this”, and “there are so many others who deserve this more than I do.” Every now and then, of course, you get a more pragmatic approach, like when Jack Benny said in an acceptance speech: “I don’t deserve this award. But I have arthritis and I don’t deserve that, either!”

When somebody wins an Olympic medal or writes a best-selling book or is elected to a high office, he or she has attained a definable goal for all to see, and deserves whatever praise is due. But when you’re engaged in community service and you are honoured for it, you cannot help but think about the people who have influenced you or who work with you, and all the unsung heroes you have met who have given lifetimes of service without recognition of any kind. So, discomfort seen year after year on occasions such as this is not false modesty, but more likely a reality check of one’s own limitations, and an uneasy feeling about being honoured for doing something that makes one feel so good while doing it!

In my own case, I am very aware of people and organizations who share this honour with me today, and I sincerely thank the Senate on their behalf as well as my own. They are legion, from my parents and wonderful “big sister” who set shining examples in their own remarkable achievements, through teachers (especially a music teacher who instilled in students the passion that is music), co-workers and treasured friends, to our sons and their life-partners, and grandchildren, all of whom inspire and instruct me daily.

The announcement from Memorial referred to my work in two “careers”. The one which enabled us to buy groceries every week was public relations, and I would be remiss if I did not pay tribute to my colleagues for more than half a century in the Canadian Public Relations Society who worked with dedication to create and maintain a dynamic profession with a strict code of ethics, a robust five-year accreditation process, and respected post-secondary education programs In Canada.

My other “career” has been involved with music, specifically the Gower Band Program, embodied in the enriching musical and collegial experience of the intergenerational Gower Community Band. I share this honour today with the people of Gower Street United Church who caught the vision 38 years (and more than 900 performances!) ago of establishing a non-denominational community band program which would provide music education and instruments, scholarship support, and opportunities for community service to anyone with a commitment to the love of music and the joy of service --- a truly remarkable gift to community by a church and its supporters and benefactors; and of course the more than 400 musicians who have participated in this program over the years and who continue to touch countless lives with music and community service at home and abroad.

And then, most importantly, there’s my wife Anthea, who has been my life-force for 55 years through both of my “careers”, and without whose hard work and tireless dedication so much of the foregoing would never have happened.

So I don‘t stand here alone. If all the people who have influenced me, given me opportunities, and worked with me could be here, there would be no room for anyone else in this hall. And I am not unique in this respect, because all graduates here today had many people walking across this stage with them in spirit, and I know they acknowledge the support, and often the sacrifice, of parents, family members, and friends in achieving their goals. Truly, “no one is an island, no one stands alone”; we are indeed all “part of the main”.

As an unabashedly proud parent myself, I can assure the Graduates that your parents share your joy and your pride on this special day. But they, like me, come from different generations. Many parents may be from the so-called “Generation X”; others may qualify for what is now known as “Zoomers”. The question is: What kind of world have we of previous generations given to these graduates here today? And the answer is intimidating. It has prompted me to suggest that we are not following “Generation X” with “Generation Y”, but rather with “GENERATION EXPONENTIAL”!

Last month a man died in the southern United States at the remarkable age of 114. He was thought to be the oldest man in the world at the time, having lived in three centuries. Just think for a moment what his life-span witnessed:

We went from “horseless carriages” to space vehicles that send us pictures and information about new planets in the universe beyond our own solar system; from bolt-action rifles and bayonets to nuclear weapons which can destroy life on earth as we know it; from the three little clicks for the Morse code letter “S” that Marconi heard on Signal Hill to Skype; and from silent movies to “tweets” from around the world on the wondrous machines that we now carry around in our pockets.... all in the span of one man’s life.

It was unprecedented. No other human life-time in the history of the world has ever experienced so much change, so much challenge, and so much stress as the past century or so. But the more startling reality is that the speed of all this change has been, and is, exponential. It has grown faster and faster each decade, and indeed each year, until now it is almost incomprehensible. It’s easy to forget that until 30 years ago, there were no personal computers; and five years ago many of us still thought that Blackberries were edible. The old discussion about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin has gone out the window (no pun intended!) because now they can put the contents of the U.S. Library of Congress on the head of a pin. All the wisdom of the world is available to any child who can access a computer. The whole process of education may soon become unrecognizable to those in my generation.

Science fiction has become reality. It is no longer considered futuristic to talk about the age of Artificial Intelligence and the Singularity, when machine intelligence merges with or exceeds human intelligence. Earlier this year, IBM’s “Watson” defeated two brilliant Jeopardy champions. That was truly history in the making!

The questions that arise, of course, are critical. Can we use our technology so as not to be abused by it? Can we master it so as not to be mastered by it? Can we lead so as not to be led?

This is the legacy we have given to you in your “Generation Exponential”.

Scary?

Sure.

Challenging?

Of course.

Exciting?

You bet!

For centuries, generations have talked about passing the torch from one to another with the usual proverb that the new breeds hold in their hands the keys to the future and the fate of the world. Now, however, it has a more urgent ring to it. Graduates, your generation can literally kill or cure the world; you have the tools to do either one, and the choice is yours. And in the case of most graduates here today, you are called not only to use the tools wisely, but to teach coming generations to do the same. It is an awesome but heroic undertaking.

We are already well into the Communications Revolution. It is changing the world order as we speak. Events in Egypt this year have shown dramatically what could be accomplished by people communicating electronically as an alternative to armed rebellion. Throughout history, tyranny has thrived on secrecy and ignorance and fear. But these curses are being eradicated by the little I-phones and other machines we hold in the palms of our hands, where the people of the world can talk as friends instead of fearing each other as enemies. They find that there is more to unite us than to divide us, if we can only respect each other`s way of life.

For those of us in the communications field, it is a dream come true. But dreams can also be nightmares, and progress has brought with it invasion of privacy, hackers, scams, spam, terrorism, slanderous blogs, and a variety of e-crimes unknown in previous history.

As we work and live in constant communication through social media, we diminish our physical human contact. We text a lot, but actually talk very little. We see on Skype, but don’t feel the touch of a hand. Business and professional life is filled with virtual meetings, webinars, and the like, and traditional gathering places such as churches and service clubs and youth organizations may be required to create virtual entities with interactive e-worship services and web-meetings and surrogate activities in order to carry out their missions. Volunteerism is in numerical decline, with fewer people doing more than their share. This new generation will be challenged to preserve the critical element of Community, not as an option, but as an imperative, if we are to maintain our humanity.

In this commitment to community, every individual has a responsibility. No one can move a mountain, but anyone can move a stone. And when enough people move enough stones together, the mountain will be moved. When we live in community, we experience the joy of fellowship and the peace of common purpose. When we engage in service, we share love with others and see the light of understanding. And when we combine the two -- Community Service – we become participants in the hope of the world.

In 2008, Lanier Phillips stood where I am standing now and captivated the Convocation with his eloquent tribute to the people of this Province. Dr. Phillips was the only African American among the 46 survivors of the tragic sinking of the USS Truxton off St. Lawrence during World War II. He had no idea where they had run ashore, and he had suffered so much abuse, hatred, and racism in his young life that he lay down to die on the beach thinking that he would probably be lynched because of the color of his skin. Instead, a kindly voice spoke and strong arms got him to his feet and then up over the cliffs of Chambers Cove. He found love from the good people of St. Lawrence. And even though the abuse and hatred continued in his naval service throughout the war and back home in the United States, he kept the St. Lawrence experience in his heart as a beacon of love and humanity and tolerance, and vowed that he would spend his life telling people all over the world that there is a place where respect and justice and love can heal the wounds of the soul.

Graduates, you are in that place, and you are of that place, whether you were born here or chose to come here. You are in Canada, a bastion of freedom, democracy, and human rights; where we are so modest that we feel a little embarrassed by saying that it`s the best place in the world to live… but it is! Where citizenship and social justice are treasured. Where we don`t make war, but we keep peace in the world, often at a dear price of brave young lives who win respect for Canada’s red maple leaf in every part of the world.

And within this great nation, you are in this province of Newfoundland and Labrador with its noble heritage, its generosity of spirit, its sense of community, its incredible wealth of talent and human resources vastly disproportionate to the size of its population, and its fierce dedication to fair play and justice. You are in this awesome place of courage and courtesy, survival and success, wit and wisdom through half a millennium of continuous settlement.

But you are also in and of this great university, a university which cares about community and shares with community, to which I can attest from the musical community’s symbiotic relationship with our remarkable School of Music for more than three decades. Today you have become alumni of Memorial, the latest generation of a proud tradition of academic excellence which has sent its graduates to teach others, to provide leadership, and to serve humanity around the world as well as here at home.

That`s why I know that you all have what it takes to tackle the challenges that will flow exponentially around you in the coming months and years. You have already achieved much, and you will achieve much more. You are from the best of stock, nationally, provincially, and academically, and it is both a profound honor and a humbling experience for me to be included in your ceremony today.

So by all means, celebrate today with family and friends. You deserve it.

And then, follow Memorial’s time-honored motto: “Launch forth into the deep”.

Use the knowledge and tools which are at your disposal, turn your challenges into opportunities, and save the world.

Because the world is truly yours, with all the blunders and blessings that you inherit.

Your world. Your choice. Your future.

Enjoy the voyage!

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Dundernomics 101: the peril of Marshallism

A modest change in circumstances has made a dramatic change in the provincial government’s 2011 budget and a bigger change for 2012.

A decision by Terra Nova oil field owners to defer major renovations on the floating production platform means that the provincial government is now forecasting a surplus almost four times what they had before.

That’s right.

The extra production will boost the anticipated forecast surplus from about $59 million to $250 million. Finance minister Tom Marshall dropped that little gem on a board of trade audience a couple of weeks ago.

But wait;  there’s more.

Next year, Marshall expects a deficit of almost double the one previously forecast.

Surplus of $200 million will become a deficit of almost $500 million.

And Marshall says that will be applied to the net debt.

First of all let’s dispose of the completely slimy, disingenuous claim about applying any surplus to the net debt.

Net debt is not real debt.  It is merely a paper transaction that represents total liabilities less any assets.  A cash surplus gets counted as an asset, but as Marshall well knows it does absolutely nothing to reduce what the people of the provincial actually owe.

You bet that if Tom really posts a small surplus, he’ll be setting that money aside either to help keep the deficit in 2012 from ballooning or to fund cost over-runs on any of the mega-projects he and his mates have locked taxpayers onto.

So when the finance minister has to rely on deception you know the rest of it is bad as well.

What you have here is basically further evidence that the provincial government has put the public treasury in a dangerous state.

Take that forecast deficit for 2012 that is now set for $500 million.

That’s based on a rather optimistic forecast for oil prices.

Drop the price of oil and you can make it a much bigger number.

And we are not talking dropping oil by half its current price.  We are talking dropping it by 20%.
or even 10%.

That half a billion will quickly become $750 million or a billion.

At least.

And if the price of oil drops in 2011, there won’t be an extra $200 million to help pay for it.
As easily as the surplus grew this year, the deficit could grow next year.  Tiny changes in the local economy produce wildly different outcomes. This is not something a finance minister – as responsible finance minister – would brush off as cavalierly as Tom Marshall does. 

A responsible finance minister would adjust spending to take account of these changes in revenues.
He or she would have a policy that said he will spend such and such a percentage of non-renewable revenues on this, another amount on the other other.  So much would go into the bank and so much would pay down debt.  Annual spending would rise by a predictable rate that was something around the rate of inflation.

As a result, people could know within reason what the world would look like five years out, regardless of whether oil prices went up or down.  In the times of phenomenal prices, they would sit comfortably knowing that the public debt was vanishing – for real  - or that they had a nest egg of public spending for roads and schools guaranteed to happen regardless of anything.

That sort of predictability is the kind of environment that promotes prosperity.

That sort of sound fiscal management attracts private investment from all over the world.

That sort of behaviour – safeguarding the public trust – helps build a sound economy.

How far is Newfoundland and Labrador away from that after a decade of  Marshallism?

The big story in Newfoundland and Labrador on the last weekend in May is a racket between Marshall’s old boss and his new boss over whether the new boss should give the old boss’ latest hockey venture a half million tax dollars.

They are fighting over whether a bunch of sweaty jock-straps are worth a permanent subsidy of a half million because it is an economic investment.

And to make it worse, we are not talking about a full-on professional franchise mind you, like they are in Winnipeg.

We are talking about the farm team.

Face it.

The big news story in this province six months before the next election is a demand from a multi-millionaire to hand over a half million bucks so he can play at being a hockey mogul.

Doesn’t seem quite so impressive when you put it that way.

Does it?

But that’s a more honest and accurate version than talking about applying a surplus to the net debt.
Think about it.

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Tiny Tories love their leader: Danny Williams

He bailed in an unseemly haste before Christmas last year but the province’s young Conservatives are still wildly in love with the Old Man.

Yes, it is a hideous picture, hideously stretched but if you look hard enough you can see that the banner of the Young Progressive Conservatives’ website features Hisself right there in the centre.

Centre of their picture.

Centre of their universe.

The front page includes this line:

Newfoundland and Labrador under the leadership of Danny Williams has seen great benefits but this is only the tip of the iceberg.

Each member of the provincial Tiny Tory executive gets a page to himself or herself.  Part of the template is a section on why they support the PC Party and Danny Williams.

They all have their reasons. 

These days past president Chantalle Hull works in Premier Kathy Dunderdale’s office as a receptionist but on the YPC website here’s what she thinks:

I not only support Danny Williams because he is leader of the PC Party, but also because I believe that he has the interests of the people of Newfoundland and Labrador at heart.

Not everyone is as certain.

One director at large exists only as a picture. 

Everything else is blank.

Now to be fair to the young Conservatives this site was laid out in 2009 and evidently hasn’t been updated since.

But still.

After last fall and a massive party make-over, you’d think all these young enthusiasts for Dannyism would be able to spare a couple of minutes from their non-stop tweeting to pull their website up to date.

You’d think they’d be super anxious to get behind the Dunderdale2011 Party as the key to securing their current paycheques even if they cannot summon up the same lemming-like yearning for Danny’s successor that they once had for the Old Man’s derriere.

Maybe they’ve just been too busy.

Let’s hope that’s it because if Kath got any sense that her young Dunderbunnies weren’t full of Dunder-love there’s no telling what she might do.

After all, look at how she treats Danny these days.

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Traffic by the numbers for May 23 to 27, 2011

Danny Williams says that the provincial government would see a $10 million return on its $500,000 subsidy…that is, if they spent.

If they could make $10 million by spending a half million, it would be a no brainer.

But they won’t.

Heck, if the numbers looked like that, multi-millionaire Williams would be spending his pocket change and fighting to keep others out of it.

So logically we know Danny’s claim is a massive pile of shite.

Even if the Angry Old Man’s numbers don’t add up, folks – and they never, ever do - you can bet these are the top 10 stories at Bond Papers for last week:

1. Meet your newest frankenparty:  the Bloc NDP
2. What am I supporting today?  asks Abbass
3. In which Dunderdale blunders…again
4. Dunderdale using rigged deck against public on Muskrat Falls
5. Tit rejects suck:  no taxpayer cash for hockey franchise after all
6. Dundernomics 101:  how to lose money
7. A tourist in her own land
8. Show us the tit and we’ll such:  AHL franchise edition
9. Dunderdale and her desperation
10. Dunderdale in action:  one Homer moment after another

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More give-aways, sez Williams

Talk about pissy.

Danny is not happy over the provincial government’s refusal to fund his latest pet hockey project.

The multi-millionaire thinks taxpayers should give public cash for free to his little project because “the numbers add up”. That’s not surprising since the multi-millionaire businessman made public subsidies for business a key part of his “no more giveaways” policy while he was Premier.

Of course, if the numbers actually added up, Williams’ proposal would not a single copper of public money of the kind he apparently now wants and previously championed.

Here’s how the Telegram quotes Williams:

“I’m a hockey fan and I believe in this, and I’m a business person and I believe in driving the economy,” he said. “But you know, different premiers have different agendas, and that’s all I can say. It’s not fair for me to second-guess her on that basis, if her decision was based on a good, proper due diligence. But my understanding is that it was less than 24 hours before this was turned around."

Funny thing for Danny to point out at the end, don’t you think?  After all, your humble e-scribbler noted exactly the same unseemly haste on the Hill to distance themselves for Williams’ little “ask”.

The Dunderbunnies may have gotten to the right answer – no public cash for rich private sector corporations and individuals – but they certainly got there with 24 hours of getting the cash ready for a hasty hand-over.

And not surprisingly, Danny is pissed off and letting everyone know it’s personal.

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Tit rejects suck: no taxpayer cash for hockey franchise after all

On Day One, sports minister Terry French was laughing and chuckling as he talked about the possibility he’d be forking over cash to help his former boss bring a hockey franchise to Mile One stadium.

French knew a fair bit about the request but – as this quote from CBC shows – he didn’t have anything concrete:

I haven’t seen what they are looking for yet. I know they’re obviously looking for something. They tell me they will need the province involved in some way, shape or form

You can find much more on the story, including quotes from Danny Williams in the Telegram coverage:

“People want hockey here in the province, and basically I was involved in it before, so you know the people have asked me to get involved to see if we can bring a team here,” Williams said.

“If, in fact, the city and the province want the team then, you know, I can get it for them. But if they don’t want it, then it’s not going to happen, “ Williams said.

He said a travel subsidy from the provincial government — in the range of $500,000 annually — could potentially be a deal breaker.

By Day Two, French looked a lot less smiley.  Based on no more concrete information than he’d had the day before, the new answer to the hockey subsidy was “no”:

"We decided that we wouldn't go down that road," said French outside the house of assembly in St. John's.

"[We decided] that committing money to a professional hockey team was not the right place to be. We had said no to people previously so the decision was easy."

Williams is reportedly “deeply disappointed”.

So what happened?  That’s a damn good question.

Both opposition parties rejected the idea flatly from the start, noting that the provincial government had turned down health-related requests claiming they didn’t have the cash. Public opinion hadn’t firmly settled on the issue  - as a CBC streeter suggests – but if any national trends are a good judge people aren’t too keen on giving cash to professional sports teams.  The Tories own polling shows that health care is a major issue for the public so perhaps that connection by the opposition was enough to frighten them off the subsidy idea.

The dramatic flip-flop suggests the provincial Tories are extremely jittery in an election year.

Now politically, there is usually no problem with flip-flopping on issues so long as you flip or flop in the same direction as the electorate.

The problem comes when flipping and flopping becomes a habit or when you say one thing one minute and something else the next.

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