17 September 2009

Blow-out

If the NTV/Telelink poll is correct, Doc O’Keefe will waltz back into the mayor’s job after this month’s municipal election and Ron Ellsworth can start campaigning for the provincial district of St. John’s North.

The poll puts O’Keefe support at 38% with Ron Ellsworth at 17%. Mark Wilson has one percent and 44% are reported as undecided. Bear in mind that Telelink doesn’t distort their numbers by reporting percentage of decideds. Of the 1,030 people they polled, only 17% backed Ellsworth.

Those numbers generally conform to the poll numbers tossed around in rumours since the middle of the summer that supposedly had O’Keefe ahead of Ellsworth by two to one.

Given the past voter turn-outs in St. John’s, you can probably consider that the final results will show that the undecideds actually won’t to vote at all.

In the deputy mayoral race, Shannie Duff leads Keith Coombs 36% to 28%.

-srbp-

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

A very good Analysis Ed. Even funnier is the fact that Ron had 17 Essentials.
imagine what he could have done if he had 50 Essentials. It is safe to say voters want more than just the essentials.

Edward G. Hollett said...

Not much analysis at all, really, just a look at the brutal numbers.

And brutal is the only word to describe them.

No wonder one person from the Ellsworth camp was so freaked out he was trying to claim all sorts of things about O'keefe's campaign as if the accusations of dirty campaigning could really erase the wproblems evident within Ellsworth's own organization.

probably goes a long way toe xplaining why Ellsworth stooped polling, by his own admission, a couple of weeks ago. With those numbers there was no point wasting money. All he could do was soldier on knowing the campaign was doomed.

Those numbers would also go a long way to explain why Ellsworth has been looking so utterly miserable in all his appearances.

Of course it onyl goes to show apeparances can be really deceiving. At the start, I had creditted his crew with way more savy and skill than this.

Anonymous said...

It was Ellsworth's for the taking. Ron has always been busy campaigning for the next step. Not in focus on where he was.(in real time)
The people working and volunteering for him were not effective. Talking crap and doing nothing. No heart no urgency
Like when you get people like Peter whittle as your Online czar popping push polls and the like, Never seeing a high road to which to drive. Just quick sly comments with no backing and busting. Playing run and hide when things get tough.
While nobody is beating a drum the campaign drum of success and cheering the troops. No karma No Charisma. No F***ing Zen
Come fast go fast.
sorta like, love them and leave them.
Cya Ron! It has been a slice of humble pie for us all

Edward G. Hollett said...

There'll be plenty of time for the post mortems after it's over.

The one thing I can say for sure right now is that there is Karma. That's the thing.

And Karma is a bitch.

Anonymous said...

well said

Anonymous said...

Ed:

The sad thing is that I think Ellsworth would do a better job than Doc. The two of them are not good candidates and don't get me started on the Wilson fellow. Ellsworth has a communication issue- too many buzzwords and difficult to hear what he is saying much of the time. But at least he is attempting to solve problems and take issues head on. Doc communicates well but says nothing of substance. He is a proven panderer - see Memorial Stadium. He waffles on issues and mitigates taking any risky stances. He is essentially a populist and that is why he will get re elected.

It is really too bad that another viable 3rd option surfaced. I think a real good candidate would have torpedoed DOC.

Anonymous said...

Peter Witless has been real quiet this week.

Anonymous said...

The deputy mayoral race is going to be won on the team that gets the most votes out. Shannie always has a great on the ground campaign. none the less,coombs has surprised us in the past. nail biter to say the least.

Edward G. Hollett said...

Wow.

The winner is the one gets the most votes out.

What a stunningly original observation.

Given the spread in the poll and the nature of the mail-in ballot campaign, I'd still lean more heavily toward Duff than Coombs.

My nails will remain intact.

Coombs could only be a surprise if he suddenly said something on finances that made sense (that is where the numbers added up correctly) or didn't talk about the need to stick with plans right after he shafted his own.

Anonymous said...

Coombs is done!

Anonymous said...

In order to produce an election, a combination of opposition parties needs to vote together to produce the magic numbers that defeat the government on a confidence motion.

Wow! What a stunningly original observation.

Be careful the house appears to be glass

Anonymous said...

Pam Frampton hit the nail on the head today in her column on Doc in the Tely today.

Edward G. Hollett said...

Yes, she did 1839.

That's why Ron Ellsworth's apparent implosion as a candidate is all the more curious. he started off so far back and never managed to close the gap with Doc as his opponent.

Anonymous said...

Ever think ron ran to block anybody else from running seriously against Doc.

Anonymous said...

Not everybody likes Ron and they all wisper their vices. Small town huh!
Did somebody fart!
Pam's article was her personal cheer for Ron. Like all the strategy of the Ellsworth campaign they try to find Dirt on Doc (what he is missing) and never focus on what they seriously must do. Pam found fault but she never found the solutions. I was surprised she approached the topic in that manner. Oh well, mark, Read, learn and inwardly digest. Did somebody fart!

Edward G. Hollett said...

It was the guy from the grassy knoll, 1947, he was behind it.

Anonymous said...

Craig Westcott, who publishes the Newfoundland Post & Business Post , hit the nail (a mighty four incher) square atop of Ron Ellsworths head