03 May 2005

Polls and something called a poll

Here's a link to the latest poll conducted by a professional opinion research firm.

It shows the Liberals are slightly ahead of the CPC led by Stephen Harper.

Meanwhile, NTV has released the results of a poll done for them by Telelink, a local call centre, on the upcoming federal bye-election in Labrador.

I was struck by a number of things in Ken Regular's report, not the least of which was the enormous undecided: 42%.

Telelink president Cindy Roma said the results were too close to call, with Liberals having 29% of decided supporters and the CPC having 23%. Even if Roma had used a standard approach of distributing the undecideds the same as the 60% who knew what they were going to do, the results would be a win for the Liberals - no question.

As it is, the undecideds are almost half the sample and Telelink apparently didn't probe them at all. Therefore, the best Roma could have said reliably is that she didn't have a clue based on the data her callers collected. Her conclusion is the research equivalent of a shrug.

Telelink also asked decided voters - obviously staunchly committed voters - if current controversies were affecting their choice. Surprise of surprises, something like at least 75% said no the controversies didn't affect their party choice.

Again, this is a penetrating insight into sweet fanny adams.

But to give benefit of the doubt, the questions I have about the poll might be related to the news story, not the research itself

In the interests of fairness, I have asked NTV for a copy of the research report. I'll let you know if I get it. If I do, I'll let you know what I found in detail.

If I can't get my hands on the detailed report, I'll make some observations based on what was reported.

More to follow.