23 June 2010

Government of Newfoundland and Labrador Hiring Test (Communications Director)

The provincial government is looking for a few new communications directors.

Standards are high.  Not everyone can do the job.

The public service commission is under such pressure to find enough people to meet the stringent criteria set down by the Premier’s Office that they’ve had to simplify the qualifying exam.

Gone is the intensive two stage examine, including a written test, before the list was passed to the Eighth for selection.

According to the latest internal e-mail circulated last week – and obtained by your humble e-scribbler – public service commission examiners are to place two objects in front of the candidate.  They are not allowed to say anything. They must merely observe what the candidate does.

See if you can figure out how to pass the test.

Object 1:

Ball-Centre-Door-Knob

Object 2:

polishing cloth

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The Fragile Economy confirmed

BMO Capital Markets lays out the scope of the problem:

Newfoundland & Labrador [sic] saw a sharp 10.2% real GDP contraction in 2009, the worst performance in Canada. However, improvement in the mining sector and a reversal of some temporary factors will drive 4% growth in 2010 and solid 2.8% growth in 2011.

Problem? sez you, wiping the purple freshie from your lips. 

Growth returns. 

Here’s the problem:

However, the biggest economic driver in the province in the next two years will be construction activity. Government infrastructure spending will total about $1 bln in FY2010/11, helping boost total
capital spending an expected 23% in 2010. Provincial government infrastructure spending will amount to more than $5 bln over the next several years, keeping the economic fuel burning into 2011. At more than 3% of GDP, the Province’s infrastructure program is among
the largest in Canada relative to the size of the economy.

It is definitely not good when the public sector is driving the economy to such a degree.

And as for all the rosiness in BMO’s outlook. 

Well, let’s just say they obviously haven’t done any detailed analysis of the local economy especially if they think the recent population growth is driven by anything other than migrant labourers returning home from other parts of the country.

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The language of Shakespeare

On the one hand, you have the regular performances of Julius Caesar at Cupids, site of the of early 17th century English colony.

There is a tide in the affairs of men
Which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.

And on the other hand, you would scarcely recognise the language of Shakespeare some four centuries on, as it is spoken in the House of Assembly:

Staff members at the school say that the faces of the children light up as they eagerly access the food items each morning.

Yes, that’s what we all long to do with food:  access it.

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22 June 2010

Brazil to expand oil production

From UPI:

RIO DE JANEIRO, June 22 (UPI) -- Brazil will spend $224 billion in five years on doubling its capacity for oil production and export despite cautious business optimism on the future global outlook for crude prices.

State-run Petrobras oil giant unveiled the spending plans as Chief Executive Officer Sergio Gabrielli set out the company's strategy to build capacity in the run-up to 2020, when Brazil will have doubled its production to 5.4 million barrels a day from 2.7 million barrels a day at present.

[more]

Anti-Rubinesque Update:  Peak oil, Schmeak Oil:

But crude oil itself has already peaked – at least five times since 1950, Prof. Boyce says – without beginning to approach the demise of oil anticipated by peak oil theory’s famous Bell curve. Indeed, crude oil reserves have doubled roughly every 15 years since 1850 and the world now has more proven reserves than it has ever had in the ensuing 150 years.

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A Crown corporation by any other name

A company that has received almost $3.5 million in federal and provincial government money since 2006 is getting another $300,000 from the federal government to support its production.

Dynamic Air Shelters will receive another $300,000 for “research, and development, engineering and marketing initiatives.”

That’s in addition to the $575,000 the company has received over the past two years for research from the federal government.

Since 2008, the company has received more that $2.0 million in federal and provincial government money to support its business operations.

A Crown corporation by any other name would not  be sucking so much public money.

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Today in history

June 22, 1990.

The Meech Lake Accord died.

In Manitoba, Elijah Harper refused to give the consent needed to bring the Accord to the floor of the legislature for debate.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, and after a last-minute effort at further manipulation by the Mulroney administration in Ottawa, Clyde Wells spoke at length in the House of Assembly before adjourning debate on the Accord.

Some predicted the country would fall apart.

It didn’t.

The finger pointing continues to this day, as Deborah Coyne concluded her memoir of the affair: Roll of the diceBrian Mulroney’s 2007 memoir is full of vitriol and a unhealthy dose of misrepresentation about the Accord debate.

Jean-Francois Lisee used exactly the same sort of fabrications as Mulroney to begin his blog series on the 20th anniversary of the Accord’s demise. Then again, the premise of the Accord was a fabrication, a falsehood, a blatant lie so it’s really not all that surprisingly that some of its proponents still rely on falsehood to argue for their case.

Meanwhile, in another corner of the universe, Gil Remillard, Quebec’s intergovernmental affairs minister at the time thinks:

<<L'entente du lac Meech aura servi à préparer le terrain et 20 ans après, on se rend compte que maintenant, nous faisons beaucoup de choses comme on voulait que ça soit fait lorsqu'on a discuté de Meech.>>

For the most part, though, only a few people in the country have even noticed the anniversary slip by.

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19 June 2010

Gulf #oilspill economic impact not what it seems

Crude is currently trading eight percent below where it was the day the BP rig in the Gulf of Mexico blew up.

CBC quotes a TD economist as saying that:

“It probably won't have a huge impact [on global oil production]. Deepwater drilling accounts for about seven per cent of global output right now.”

But the same online piece notes that Gulf of Mexico production accounts for 30% of American domestic output.

Now if there should happen to be a complete moratorium on new drilling and exploration in deep water as a result of the BP disaster, that could have interesting repercussions.  All those rigs currently being used in the southern US will be available for renewed exploration efforts in other parts of the world.  Like say offshore Brazil or offshore Newfoundland.

And hey, notice that the CBC article refers to tougher regulation.  That doesn’t mean something like a ban;  it just means Americans will start applying the same sorts of regulation that other countries take for granted and where exploration and production is going on as always.

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Weekly Traffic Drivers, June 14-18

  1. Sun News?  Ya gotta be kidding
  2. Telling quotes:  Lower Churchill version 
  3. Eventually the other guys will lose (Newfoundland and Labrador political culture)
  4. Roger Fitzgerald’s bias (The Speaker of the House of Assembly is biased)
  5. NB Connies argue over pork
  6. We thought *you* had jobs for *us* – Russian version
  7. Opportunity for comment – Hebron project
  8. The Le Petomane School of Government (House of Assembly legislative agenda)
  9. One for Chuck (Takogo kak Putin)
  10. The World of the Psychic Economic Forecaster (crude oil price forecasts)

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18 June 2010

Weather is here…Russian junket version

1. What a total waste of time!  What politician,  any time in the history of human civilization ever went on a lovely trip to a foreign land entirely at taxpayers’ expense and came back proclaiming that the junket was anything but “productive”?

2.  The St. Petersburg economic forum was about attracting investment to Russia.  Is the Lower Churchill underwater line now going to run to Murmansk, he asked facetiously?

3. Dear Ladies and Gentlemen of Facebook… As for anyone being invited, the SPIEF organizers extended the exclusive invitation to everyone on Facebook.  Find any mention of Canada – let alone Newfoundland and Labrador – on the official Twitter feed for SPIEF.

SPIEf invite

4.  The event ends tomorrow.  Wasn’t the release announcing the glorious events of the trip a wee bit premature?  Don’t anybody mention quotas of happy news.

-srbp-

International Can Opening: Gold hits new record

Gold is up again  - a record US$1,248 an ounce - based on economic problems in Europe and the United States.

Oh yeah.

Bring on the recovery baby.

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The World of the Psychic Economic Forecaster

On the one hand Jeff Rubin is in St. John’s telling audience that oil will be back in triple digit pricing within six months and will stay there. It’s a line from his book, basically.

The recovery presumably is underway and is solid.

On the other hand, in another part of the globe someone notices that a key index of shipping tonnage is currently at about 2,784 compared to 11,793 points  - a record high – that it hit just before oil prices hung in the triple digits for a short period in 2008.

Followed of course by a massive collapse.

Jeff says oil prices caused the collapse.

Okay.

Sure.

And that runny nose you have?

It caused your cold.

Chest pains?

Caused your heart attack.

Jeff’s forecast and the indicators don’t quite seem to fit together, do they?

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17 June 2010

Opportunity for comment – Hebron project

From the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board:

“The public is invited to comment on the draft Comprehensive Study Report (CSR) for the Hebron Development Project being proposed by ExxonMobil Canada Properties on behalf of the Hebron Project Proponents: Chevron Canada Limited, Petro-Canada Hebron Partnership, Statoil Canada Ltd., and Nalcor Energy – Oil and Gas Inc.

The Hebron Project will include activities associated with installation, drilling and production, maintenance, and decommissioning of a concrete gravity-based structure (GBS) at the Hebron field, northeast Grand Banks. The Hebron Project will involve construction activities at two locations, the Hebron field and the Bull Arm marine facilities in Bull Arm, Trinity Bay. Construction activities are scheduled to commence in 2012, with petroleum production to begin in 2016 or 2017.

Before any petroleum-related activity can be undertaken in the Newfoundland & Labrador Offshore Area, a detailed and location-specific Environmental Assessment (EA) must be submitted to the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (C-NLOPB). In addition, this project is subject to the federal environmental assessment process pursuant to the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act. The CEA Act requirements indicate this environmental assessment must be reviewed using the comprehensive study process as the project involves the proposed construction or installation of a facility for the production of oil or gas, if the facility is located offshore.

Pursuant to Section 21(1) of the CEA Act, the C-NLOPB, on behalf of the responsible authorities for the federal environmental assessment of the project (C-NLOPB, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Transport Canada, Environment Canada and Industry Canada), is inviting the public to comment on the proposed draft CSR. The draft CSR was completed pursuant to the CEA Act and the Scoping Document prepared by the C-NLOPB and the other responsible authorities.

The Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency will provide an opportunity for public comment on the final CSR at a later date.

Comments must be received by the C-NLOPB no later than Wednesday August 11, 2010. Interested persons may submit their comments in the official language of their choice to information@cnlopb.nl.ca or to the following address:”

Public Comments – Hebron Development Project

Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board

5th Floor, TD Place

140 Water St., St. John’s, NL

A1C 6H6

(709) 778-1400

NB Connies argue over pork

New Brunswick Conservative member of parliament Greg Thompson – who isn’t planning on running for re-election – says that Conservative cabinet minister Keith Ashfield is sitting on pork announcements for New Brunswick in an effort to influence the provincial election in September.

Canwest is reporting:

"(Ashfield) stated very clearly, with his own lips to me, 'We're not going to be carrying the province on our backs to the next election.' And, of course, I took exception to that and I'm just wondering who he's attempting to punish," said Thompson, who says he is not running in the next federal election.

Thompson said he suspects Ashfield is defending his chief of staff Fred Nott, who suggested in an e-mail to hold off on approving funding in Thompson's riding until after Sept. 27, the date of the provincial election.

Hmmm.

A fight within the Conservative party?

A family feud as it were.

Sounds vaguely familiar.

Come to think of it, New Brunswick provincial Conservative leader David Alward might want to be careful about having what UNB political scientist David Desserud called “some of that Danny Williams magic” rub off.  Desserud made the comment after Alward took a taxpayer funded partisan campaign hop across to see the Old Man recently. 

Alward might well have been thinking how nice it would be to get the rumoured version of the Danny Williams effect.  But truth be told, the the real Danny Williams Effect can be a bit more like something you pick up on a planet in Star Trek: The Original Series.  You know:  the stuff that makes your hands all itchy and then Sulu comes at you with an epee right before some whack-job belts out another chorus of ‘I’ll take you home again Kathleen.”

Maybe poor Dave got the actual Danny political mojo instead of what he hoped for.

And then: poof!

Instant family feud.

Ouch.

That has got to hurt.

-srbp-

16 June 2010

We thought *you* had jobs for *us* - Russian version

The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum is about encouraging foreigners to invest in Russian development.

The focus of this year's forum will be Russia's modernization, which is captured in its slogan, "Laying the foundation for the future." There will be a special emphasis on making deals with energy and high-tech companies, as well as large financial corporations, Presidential Aide Arkady Dvorkovich said during a news briefing at RIA Novosti on June 15.

So why exactly is a Canadian politician desperately looking for investment in his own province headed all the way to the former Russian capital for a conference about expanding the Russian economy?

Good question, especially considering he is just another one of the thousands headed there as attendees.

Not a keynote speaker.

Not an organizer.

Just another nametag in the room.

The plan is to sign more agreements and memoranda with foreign partners at this year's forum than ever before, Mr. Dvorkovich said.

"We expect that you won't be able to count the signed investment agreements on even two hands," he said, adding that European investors plan to announce a "significant expansion" of investment in Russia.

Something says someone got confused about which St. Petersburg the forum was in.

This one isn’t conveniently close to home.

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Related:

Sun News? Ya gotta be kidding

Think of it this way:

Less news.

More boobs.

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The Le Petomane School of Government

“Work, work, work”

 

Among the bills passed or on track to be passed in the current sitting of the House of Assembly:

  • Making illegal what is already illegal: Changes to the Highway Traffic Act to make it illegal to send text messages while driving a car.  The Act currently prohibits the use of cellular telephones while driving.  Cell phones are the device people use to send text messages. 
  • And then exempting people from the cell phone ban:  The list of exemptions under the new version of the Act is as impressive as it is vague in places.  It includes police, fire and other emergency responders, people texting or calling someone about something that is allowed under regulations and a whole undefined class of people – like maybe politicians? - specifically allowed to talk on cellular telephones and do other similar things while driving that ordinary folks are barred from doing.
  • The Court Security Act 2010.  Repeats word for word the Court Security Act (passed in 2004 but never enacted) and includes two minor amendments that could have been done by amending the existing Act.
  • The Architects Act 2008, amendment bill:  makes minor amendments to an Act passed in 2008 but not yet in force. See?
  • Three separate bills  that change the Insurance Companies Act:  they could have been one bill or a complete revision of the old Act. Here’s the first amendment bill. 
  • A bill to postpone the date for a report on salaries and benefits for provincial court judges.
  • Two separate amendments to the Income Tax Act that could have been done in one bill.

hedley and BillIt’s like government by a bunch of people who learned everything they know from some online university in the States, like say the William J. Le Petomane School of Government, run by Dean Hedley Lamarr.

 

 

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15 June 2010

Save the Jolly Rock Lighthouse

Is there a facebook group for this yet?

Should be.

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Kremlinology 22: House sitting and bills passed

The current sitting of the House of Assembly is slated to finish next Tuesday – Wednesday at the latest – and by the time it rises the the House is on track to pass 33 bills.

When was the last time the House sat until the second or third week of June for the spring sitting and passed 33 bills?

2007.

Yep.

The spring sitting before the provincial general election.

In other years since 2003, the House has closed at the very latest on June 4.

Interesting.

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Eventually the other guys will lose…

A couple of weeks ago, your humble e-scribbler picked up a story at the political science reunion.  It was about a bunch of university types who met with a political leader looking for some advice.

Do some polling, find out what people are looking for and develop a platform came the advice.  Then go out and work hard to persuade people to join you and vote for you.

No way, came the response.  We don’t need to do that: eventually the other guys will lose.

Telegram editorial page editor Russell Wangersky offered a thoughtful commentary on local politics last week:

Sitting on the government side has been a free ticket to talking down to whatever party's in opposition and just generally acting like God's gift to politics.

It also means a fundamental weakness in opposition - and never forget that the opposition has a crucial role in good government. The weakness is that no one runs to be a member of a strong opposition - instead, potentially strong candidates sit on their hands and wait for the right time to throw their hats in the ring. That time only comes when it looks like they can take the government - and until then, we tend to get leaders of the opposition who are seat-warmers, at best.

Wangersky hit on a major problem in local politics, but it isn’t one of majorities.  Nor is it the case that people don’t run to to be part of a strong opposition:  not a single politician has ever run in order to sit on the side of the House that doesn’t have power.

Rather, the problem has to do with the local political culture. 

For starters, politics is seen by many as nothing more than a game.  Voters don’t necessarily weigh policies;  they just make a guess early on which side is going to win and then park their vote with the winner.  That’s where this whole idea comes from about losing one’s vote. Being on the winning side is the most important thing for many voters.

Second, consider that parties don’t divide up along any really well-founded ideological lines either. Take a look at the 1996 Tory platform, for example, and you’ll see basically policies that are similar to the Liberal platform at the time.  In 2003, Danny Williams’ platform included an entire chapter that was nothing more than a précis of the 1992 Strategic Economic Plan

On some issues in that election – like say the idea of a state-owned oil company – all three parties had exactly the same idea.  Just to give a sense of the absence of any ideological divide consider that the New Democrats look on it as if it was actually some kind of public ownership.  Lorraine Michael praises the hell out of NALCOR because it looks like something her peeps would like.

In practice, NALCOR is something the local New Democrats should be opposing vehemently.  It runs without adequate public oversight and can hide most of its financial workings from legislative scrutiny. NALCOR has received bags of public cash but produces no identifiable public benefit.

Even if all that weren’t true, somewhere along the line Lorraine missed the biggie clue that should tell her Danny is no advocate of public ownership of the kind New Democrats as social democrats would understand:  Williams has said in the legislature right in front of her that he’d flip the whole deal if the price was right.  New Democrats don’t usually advocate converting principles to cash.

To be sure, the current Williams crowd are viciously partisan in a way locals have seldom seen.  The truly hard core Danny-ites approach politics with the sort of closed-minded zeal that would make your average Fox News watcher green if only with envy.  But still,  what we are referring to in Newfoundland today is not an ideological division,  that is unless Chris Crocker-style hysterical celebrity worship is now a political belief system. 

And through it all, there’s the simple fact that since the Great Sectarian Accommodation of the mid-19th century, the Newfoundland establishment culture does accept open political debate and discussion as being legitimate.  To the contrary, local political culture explicitly divides the world into acceptable views and those which are treasonous, to use the popular freshie-gulper language.

You’ll see a fine example of this time-honoured approach in the comments on a post from 2009.  There’s a back and forth between your humble e-scribbler and a chap who wanted to offer some free advice.  part of the exchange included this::

Complaining about the tone of my comments or saying I am negative (there's a popular one) is really a code for identifying someone who is outside the range of accepted belief. It identifies someone who must conform or be ostracised.

It is a way of suppressing ideas and views which run contrary to that of the dominant authorities. Remember a couple of years ago when DW referred to some people in Stephenville as "dissidents"? Bit of an odd choice of words but, if you appreciate the wider context, it made perfect sense. How about the constant refrain that different ideas are "negative"?

As a last point, I will note that there is one thing I have seen fairly consistent[ly] over the past four or five years. The only people who criticise my tone (even with the little bit of sugar about it being a "nice" blog) or who suggested I am merely a partisan hack advancing something called "Liberal dogma", whatever the hell that is, come from a very particular ideological or partisan background themselves.

They are, in effect, using coded language in another way: to avoid dealing with conflict. They want to suppress some sort of conflict either between their ideas and ones they don't agree with or can't accept or - more typically with the person. In the latter case the sublimation comes from misperception that criticism of an idea is criticism of the person suggesting the idea. Either way it is unhealthy.

This isn’t just an abstraction or a left-over fear from another age. 

Once in power, political parties have been known to use their considerable economic might to punish those who speak publicly even if it simply doesn’t conform to the exact government line. Whether it is that economic punishment or merely the phone call asking if someone had actually meant to say something quoted in the news media, the message of suppression and the need for conformity gets through loudly and clearly.

No one should be surprised that, in such a culture, aspiring politicians often wait around hoping for the day the other guys lose.  Nor is it surprising given such a repressed political environment that in the 60-odd years since Confederation, there have been only three changes of governing political party in Newfoundland and Labrador:  1972, 1989 and 2003.

A healthy democracy requires more than a strong opposition in the legislature.  It requires a strong party system that accepts as legitimate both differences of view and the right to express those differences without fear of reprisal. That strong party system cannot take root in a place where conformity is demanded, where differences are actively suppressed and where politics is reduced to nothing more than a game.

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14 June 2010

Telling quotes: Lower Churchill version

The Premier made a few telling comments in the House of Assembly today about the imaginary Lower Churchill project.

Asked about interest in a new American transmission line NALCOR is interested in,  the Premier had this to say:

Mr. Speaker, this Province is not prepared to enter into commitments unless it has actually something to go on. I think this is just the opposite of the question that the hon. member asked last week as to why we had not entered into certain contracts. We had not entered into them because at that point we did not have any power to sell. … [Emphasis added]

Didn’t enter into contracts because there was no power to sell.  Sounds a lot like what actually happened in Quebec.  Faced with the need under open access rules to option space on the lines for power – but having no Lower Churchill power to sell -  NALCOR decided to try and delay the process with administrative appeals.

There’s no point in buying transmission space for power that doesn’t exist.

Of course, that is exactly the opposite of what the Premier told a handful of people who turned up to hear his speech last week in Ottawa.  He told them that Quebec transmission requests sailed through the regulatory agency while NALCOR’s wound up in delays and appeals.  He just didn’t say why they wound up in delays and appeals. [Hint:  it had nothing to do with Hydro-Quebec’s involvement in any conspiracies.]

The Premier also said that:

This is the best, clean, green renewable energy project in North America and it will happen eventually.  [Emphasis added]

You have to listen to the way he added that word “eventually” in there. It was a softly. But it is there and it is also closer to the full story than anything else.  The project will happen eventually. And that’s pretty much what every Premier since Joe Smallwood has known.

The Lower Churchill just isn’t happening on the schedule the Premier promised.  In fact, the project doesn’t have a schedule any more.

Then there was the moment where he seemed a bit confused:

…we will pay for new transmission. There is a co-operative attitude. Your divide and conquer attitude, whether it happens to be Quebec or New Brunswick, simply does not work.

Divide and conquer in Quebec or New Brunswick?  He actually accused the opposition Liberals of trying to divide and conquer in Quebec and New Brunswick. Huh?  Don’t worry.  Anyone else reading the transcript is likely as confused as you are by these sorts of ludicrous claims.

Then again, since the project is off, ludicrous claims are all that remain.

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The M-shaped recovery

You’ve heard of the W-shaped recession.

Now think about an M-shaped recovery in the middle. Rather than two dips and then a rise, this would be a rise, followed by a dip, then another rise followed by another big dip.

Regardless of what letter the graph looks like, the latest news suggests the global economy is not ready to go surging back to the world some pundits and speculators would have you believe.

Retail sales in the United States dropped in May, down 1.2 percent from April.  if consumer spending will drive the recovery, then that isn’t good news. Automobile sales and building supply sales were down as well.

Oh yes, and gasoline sales in the U.S. dropped as well.

In some other places, this all might be just another bit of news to skip over on the way to football scores.  But when you live in a province that is increasingly  dependent on exports to the United States, including oil exports, then this isn’t welcome news.

Nor is it welcome to find out that the Chinese have developed a way of producing  a low-cost version of nickel instead of the highly refined version currently in wide use to make stainless steel.  The Chinese output, called nickel pig iron,  is profitable at current world prices for nickel of US$8.50 a pound, according to the Globe and Mail. Compare to the 2007 price of US$24 a pound.

“It does put a cap on world nickel prices. If not in practical terms, at least in psychological terms,” concedes David Constable, vice-president of investor relations at Quadra FNX Mining Ltd., a Canadian company that began as a Sudbury nickel producer but has diversified its production to focus primarily on copper.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining firm, has already turned bearish on nickel and sold some of its mines. The emergence of NPI was a key factor in the decision, analysts say. They expect the Chinese product’s impact to only get larger with time, as more producers enter the fray.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, Vale Inco workers are still striking against the company.  Production is still going on using replacement workers.  The provincial government recently encouraged both sides to settle the dispute, and with good reason. Government revenue from mining royalties is expected to drop yet again and having the Vale Inco mine at Voisey’s Bay anywhere but at peak production doesn’t help deal with a projected billion dollar cash shortfall. Every nickel counts.

A new low-cost way of producing nickel for steel-making also doesn’t improve the financial picture for the Vale Inco smelter project at Long Harbour.  That project remains the largest capital works project in the province. The provincial government is counting on Vale Inco to help boost the economy in the province both during the construction phase of the Long Harbour project and then with subsequent production of refined nickel.

-srbp-

13 June 2010

Roger Fitzgerald’s bias

Is Speaker Roger Fitzgerald biased?

The answer for any thinking person is unquestionably “yes”.

The most famous example of Fitzgerald’s bias in favour of his own political party is his vote against providing adequate financial resources to the official opposition.  An independent report did not prevent him from joining with his fellow Tories to single  out one opposition party for punishment.

Another example, perhaps a Freudian slip came after the Premier indicated what he thought ought to happen in response to the Cougar helicopter tragedy.  Fitzgerald said he would “do as you [the Premier] directed.”

No Speaker of any parliament anywhere in the Commonwealth other than those that have descended into petty local despotism would so meekly surrender his responsibilities. 

Well, except for Fitzgerald’s equally incompetent predecessor Harvey Hodder that is, but that is another story.

In the legislature this session, Fitzgerald has selectively applied the rules of the House on numerous occasions.  Over at labradore, there are legions of examples of government members and cabinet ministers breaking the simple rule against using names in the House. They do it to praise their master and Fitzgerald, knowing which way the very strong wind blows, lets them go on and on, as did his predecessor Harvey Hodder before him.

Each day, the House is a constant display of rudeness and crudity coming from the legion of government bobble-heads.  Some of the worst offenders are ministers like Kathy Dunderdale, Kevin O’Brien and the ever embarrassing John Hickey.

The heckling is confined largely to Question period which is, as most people know, the one time when the opposition can score any political points and get some news time compared to the government party.

Their political purpose in all this heckling is simple: intimidate the already small-in-numbers opposition.  Throw them off their game.  Break their stride. As the opposition has scored political points this session, as the government has screwed up, so too has the volume of the heckling and catcalls increased proportionately.

Fitzgerald has been deaf to it all.

Oh sure Fitzgerald has stood and cautioned members about their behaviour on a couple of occasions.  And sure, Hansard is full of his shouts of “order, order”.  But Fitzgerald selectively chooses who he disciplines and, as we have seen this week, how he acts.

This past week, Fitzgerald took aim at opposition leader Yvonne Jones.  Anyone listening to the audio version of the House will understand that Jones was not the most frequent cause of disorder nor was she the most vocal one. She also likely didn’t start any of it. Yet it was Jones whom Fitzgerald singled out.

Charlene Johnson was under fire.

She asked Fitzgerald to shut up the opposition leader specifically and he did so.

Fitzgerald did not merely ask for silence as he has done in the past.  He added a personal and revealing twist:

“Gone are the days that the Speaker is going to ask people to leave the Chamber. It is playing into the political hands of the people who are causing the disorder, but the people who are causing disorder will remain invisible to the Chair until there is an apology issued.”

He is referring, of course, to a couple of episodes in this session where opposition members refused to withdraw remarks and so were asked to leave the chamber.  Being named is a time-honoured form of protest, a nod to the rules and a slap at the same time.

For Fitzgerald to single the behaviour out with the words “playing into the political hands” suggests that he is sensitive not to the simple matter of order and decorum in the House but to the political points scored by the opposition. Truth be told, both Fitzgerald and his partisan associates seemed surprised when Marshall Dean made his stand on the sensitive air ambulance issue.

But note that Fitzgerald has made no such comment about the government members, especially those who have repeatedly violated the rules on using names in the legislature in order to score political points.

And an experienced member of the House like Fitzgerald knows full well that his new policy of ignoring certain members hurts only one group:  the opposition. It will not silence any of his political cronies nor will it stop them from doing their job of shouting down the tiny voices of dissent in the House of Assembly. john Hickey doesn’t rise to ask questions nor, thankfully, does he get to answer them very often.

No.

Fitzgerald had to know that his new rule would serve only muzzle the opposition.

And in that one moment, Fitzgerald both admitted his bias.  If this were any other parliament, Fitzgerald would already have resigned in disgrace.

For Fitzgerald to hide behind the claim, offered to CBC radio Morning Show this past Friday,  that he is a guardian of free speech for people in the House with weak voices is as hypocritical as it is an insult to the intelligence of the people of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Fitzgerald’s actions this past week make it plain he has the same disregard for free speech in the House as the fellow from whom he took direction during the Cougar tragedy.

Government House leader Joan Burke was quite right last Thursday when she quoted from parliamentary authorities on the need for impartiality in a Speaker.  She quoted Beauchesne:

"In order to ensure complete impartiality the Speaker has usually relinquished all affiliation with any parliamentary party. The Speaker does not attend any party caucus nor take part in any outside partisan political activity."

These last two points are not, as Burke contended,  “significant political sacrifices.”  They are requirements of the job.

But Burke is right to say that impartiality is important both to to the integrity and functioning of the House. It is so important, in fact, that parliamentary authorities like Beauchesne have for centuries singled out the Speaker for protection against unfounded and unwarranted attacks on his integrity.

Unfortunately not many people understand that, as a result of those protections set up by noted authorities, being Speaker does not give one a form of diplomatic immunity for all offences against proper behaviour, impartiality and the integrity of the office. It merely raises the bar for those who must deal with a Speaker who, as Fitzgerald has done, transgresses the rules of the House himself in such an egregious manner so regularly and apparently so blindly.

New Democrat leader Lorraine Michael missed this point when she recently refrained from commenting on Fitzgerald’s behaviour.  So too did the Telegram editorialist miss this bit in what was otherwise an excellent essay on the current mess which is the legislature.

Roger Fitzgerald’s behaviour as Speaker has undermined the integrity of the Speaker’s office, contributed to the loss of order in the House and generally helped to create as unhealthy a democratic environment in the legislature as one has seen anywhere in the centuries of parliamentary history. 

Unfortunately, Yvonne Jones made the mistake of speaking her mind without herself apparently understanding the correct action to take. She spoke out of evident frustration.  That correct action would have been to bring before the House a substantive motion of non-confidence in the Speaker.  Along with properly documented examples of his inappropriate rulings, the case against Fitzgerald could be well and easily made in the House.

It would actually not matter that Fitzgerald’s former caucus-mates would vote down the motion;  Jones’ case would be obvious for all to see. This would leave Fitzgerald in the embarrassing spot of trying to carry on having already been suitably tagged for what he is not just in this province but throughout the parliamentary world community.  Fitzgerald would be hard-pressed not to resign.

And if Fitzgerald tried to prevent the motion from coming to the floor, either alone or in concert with his political friends, or if he and his partisan associates piled on the petty revenge, then their actions would be plainly seen as well. 

As it is, the House is likely to remain saddled with yet another biased Speaker.  The House will remain managed not by the competent and impartial member of whom Beauchesne and others have spoken spoke but by the mob the current Speaker so obviously serves.

If Fitzgerald had any regard for the House he would either straight himself up and start acting like a proper Speaker or resign immediately. 

Experience suggests that nothing will change in the near term.  This will become yet another example of a party which has lost its sense of political direction.

That’s okay.  To paraphrase what one wise old political hand said in 2001, either the government party will change or the voters will change them.

-srbp-

11 June 2010

Paul Lane – bigger ambitions?

Is Mount Pearl city councillor Paul Lane  - described by the Telegram recently as a long-time Conservative  - going to seek the Conservative nod in the next federal election?

Might be.

He turned up on Crap Talk Thursday speaking as a concerned citizen.

His topic:

Lighthouses.

Clearly, this is a big issue in Mount Pearl.  They are afraid of losing their lighthouse on the wharf right next to the Rolls Royce marine engine repair facility.

All sarcasm aside – Mount Pearl is land-locked -  when a politico turns up talking about something not related to his current political office, odds are good he is laying the groundwork for a run at another office.

Since there is no provincial election coming up with an available seat, the only logical conclusion would be that he is looking for the Connie nod against Siobhan Coady in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl.

Now that might be interesting if – as it now seems –  the Old Man will not be waging a jihad against his fellow Conservatives next time. That means all the local Tories who voted for Ryan Cleary purely as a protest over the Family Feud can go safely back to voting for their federal cousins.

That could be interesting in that the race would then be between Coady and Lane with Ryan bringing up the rear.   Ditto in a race where another staunch Conservative, like say Tommy Osborne, decided to get some pensionable federal time.

And for those who doubt the wisdom of the mighty political oracle known as Bond, just remember that everyone laughed at the prediction that Steve Kent would switch to the provincial Tories having previously supported both the federal and provincial Liberals and – if memory serves – the federal proto-Connies at one point.

-srbp-

10 June 2010

Counter-spinning negativity – Jerome! version

So there’s Jerome! trying to spin the Ottawa speech to Randy Simms over at Open Line.  Big crowd.  Sceptical at first but then slowly realising the truth until a giant standing ovation at the end.

Uh huh.

Right.

Actually, the audience was small, according to reports from some in the room.  Tables packed but a small number of tables spread out in a relatively small room at a hotel where the Canadian Club of Ottawa has been known to jam the place to the rafters for speeches by other premiers from the Far East.

The audience include a bunch of federal politicians from Newfoundland and Labrador, the majority of whom have a track record of jumping when the Old Man barks. They had to show up.

But no giant groundswells of editorial opinion one way or t’other. The media coverage generally was pretty light:  Reuters Africa. roflmao.

What did get coverage?

A fake lake and some ludicrous claim by a couple of people about a political merger conversation that never was.

Face it:  if four inches of water and David Dingwall’s former political staffer make a bigger news hit than a speech by a provincial Premier claiming all sorts of hideous things about another provincial government, you have the definition of a complete public relations disaster.

That’s why Jerome! was torquing so desperately.

-srbp-

Gushue on blogs

Over at John Gushue’s Telegram column, you’ll find some wise advice and observations about blogs and blogging.

John’s been the force behind what may well be the province’s longest running and certainly the best blog: dot, dot,dot.  You’ll find John’s eclectic work in a link in the ‘Sir Robert Recommends’ pile on the left of by simply clicking here.  no one will be surprised to know that John is typically the most popular out-link from these parts.  People like to head from here to there and frankly, there really isn’t a finer place to go.

As John notes in the title of his post, blogging isn’t likely to be a source of income.  If you think blogging will make money or even bring in some business for you, that may depend on the market where you are.  Around these parts, blogging isn’t a money making proposition.

There are probably as many reasons for writing a blog as there are people writing.  Blogging is a personal thing, after all. John makes that point in several ways.

Take a look around the Internet and you can find a variety of blogs covering everything from hobbies to technology to politics.  If people are doing it or interested in it, then there is a blog out there somewhere about it.

That’s really the amazing thing about the Internet.  People can express themselves freely using whatever talents they have.  Some people may chose to be complete twits.  That’s fine: for every one of them, there is at least one like the people over there who Sir Robert Recommends.

If you’ve been thinking about blogging, just jump in.  The world can use more people like you online.

Just make sure you read John Gushue’s top-notch advice first.

-srbp-

09 June 2010

Salma Hayek and Maria Bello freak out over snake

Via HuffPuff:

Live blogging the Old Man at the Chateau

12:58 PM (Eastern):  It’s great when you can get the mainlanders to read stuff your publicists cranked out.  No fact-checking.

1:00 PM:  The cash came from deals signed before 2003 and the debt remains the same.

1:01 PM:  The economy actually shrank 26% according to the provincial government’s latest budget.

1:02 PM:  The 2009 cash shortfall was a half billion with another billion forecast this year.  The net debt went up last year. 

1:08 PM:  Current cost estimate:  $14.7 billion to get it done.

1:08 PM:  It is straightforward except they have no markets and no money.

1:10 PM:  The Old Man spent five years trying to get HQ to take an equity stake in the Lower Churchill.  They just weren’t interested.

1:12 PM: April 2009:  NALCOR wheeled power through Quebec.  Its projects got done too.

1:12 PM:  NALCOR presented no evidence to bolster its claims.

1:15 PM:  NALCOR’s requests went to the Regie because NALCOR filed appeals.

1:17 PM:  NALCOR’S reputed price to New Brunswick:  16 cents per kwh, if the project ever gets built.  NB current consumer rate = 12 cents per kwh

1:20 PM:  Williams’ original ask to Ottawa 2005:  federal transfers equal to offshore revenues regardless of whether or not the province qualified for Equalization.

1:24 PM:  Imagine if they’d expropriated private property.

1:26 PM:  Will Jack and Iggy still cuddle Danny now?

1:27 PM:  Self-reliance, but only with hand-outs.

1:29 PM:  A fine rehash of the New York speech and every great 40-year old fable, delivered with the usual flat tone.

-srbp-

Vermont’s energy future found… in Quebec

Sometimes it takes a while for news to reach your humble e-scribbler.

Still, news from this past March is topical.

Seems that Vermont and Quebec are working on a 26-year power purchase deal to supply the state with some lovely Hydro-Quebec electricity. A final deal is expected this month.

“I recognized then that Canada and Quebec would be critical to Vermont’s energy future, our border security and our economy,” said [Vermont Lieutenant-Governor Brian] Dubie. “So I visited the Canadian Embassy in Washington for a high-level briefing on our relationship. I learned that for a number of reasons, our official relationships were strained. So I made a commitment then to reestablish the lines of communication and repair those relationships.”

Observation1:  You don’t make friends being a perpetual anger-ball. 

Observation 2:  If NALCOR actually had markets for the Lower Churchill, they’d have money and if they had markets and money, they’d be building the Lower Churchill instead of wasting time and huge amounts of public cash using weak-assed arguments at Quebec’s energy regulator trying to stall running NALCOR’s [non-existent] Lower Churchill power through Quebec.

Observation 3:  Sparky speeches at the Chateau Laurier add up to a cup full of warm spit compared to a real contract to deliver power for 26 years.

Will anger-ball performance still work with mainland media?

The Old Man’s publicists decided to let the world in on his sooper sekrit speaking engagement in Ottawa with a media advisory issued at 9:00 AM on the day it takes place.

BP readers already knew about the gig from a post on May 27.

In the meantime, the mighty Ceeb is offering a live feed with “sparks promised.” Well, unless he’s planning on setting off some actual Roman candles in the ballroom of the Chateau, this will just be yet another tired rehash of the same old stuff.

This paranoid delusional ranting makes for good entertainment – slightly behind Friends re-runs -  but the locals in Ottawa might be just a wee be tired of the anger-ball thing.  What will be more interesting will be any scrum to see what questions the mob of reporters in Ottawa might pose. 

Especially considering the biggest unreported story in Danny-ville remains his five years of trying to get HQ to buy equity in the Lower Churchill.

Does the moustache tickle update?  Jerome! is in Ottawa with the Old Man.

-srbp-

Air ambulance controversy - curious ATIP redaction may hold clue to full story

A briefing note prepared for the province’s health minister in early September 2009 may contain important clues to when a decision was taken to move an air ambulance aircraft from St. Anthony to Goose Bay.

In a section headed “Medical Flight Specialists”, the briefing note points to the problem of putting specially trained medical crews on aircraft outside St. John’s.  That’s the only place a medical flight specialist team exists since the provincial health department created the program in August 2007.  Before 2007, local medical staff accompanied patients being transported to another hospital inside or outside the province by medical evacuation aircraft.

As part of the relocation of one aircraft to goose Bay, the provincial government will train a new medical flight specialist team.  In the meantime, any staff needed for a medical evacuation from Goose Bay would have to originate in St. John’s or travel to St. John’s first and then return to goose Bay.  That’s exactly the problem identified in the September 4, 2009 briefing note regardless of where outside St. John’s the health department based an aircraft.

Air amb briefing note

Note that the final four bullets in that section are deleted.  Three are deleted under a discretionary section of the province’s access to information law  about to advice to a cabinet minister or government body. There’s no indication what that information might be.

But a fourth bullet is deleted because it relates to “plans that relate to the management of personnel of or the administration of a public body and that have not yet been implemented or made public…”.  The province’s access to information allows the head of a department the discretion whether or note to censor that information.  In this case, the department head decided to censor the information.

These deletions are important since they relate to a dispute over when the provincial government decided to move the air ambulance. Both provincial Tories and the Grit opposition have tied the move  - directly or indirectly  - to last fall’s by-election in the district formerly represented by provincial Tory cabinet minister Trevor Taylor.

Taylor resigned unexpectedly last fall.  The provincial Liberals won the by-election held in October. Health care was a major issue in the by-election. In a letter to a local newspaper in the district in May, Taylor tied the by-election to the ambulance relocation.

While the Premier and health minister have denied the connection they have also hinted strongly that further protests by people in Taylor’s former district might lead to other cuts.

Paul Oram, the province’s health minister in September 2009, resigned suddenly in early October, citing ill health.

-srbp-

08 June 2010

Enviro minister of denial

Charlene Johnson, by some accounts the province’s environment minister, answering a question in the House of Assembly about a potential oil spill in Placentia Bay where tankers travel daily to a refinery and an oil storage facility:

Mr. Speaker, there is one thing that she has right, and that is that we have the jurisdiction in the Department of Environment and Conservation should the oil, in the unlikely event, that should the oil reach land then it does come under the Department of Environment and Conservation, Mr. Speaker. [Emphasis added]

And there’s no way she’d ever expropriate a polluted paper mill either.

Who ya trying to impress, Charlene?

‘Cause if it’s no one you are doing a fine job.

-srbp-

Working mills versus a catastrophe

As part of its restructuring efforts, AbitibiBowater just announced the company has offloaded four mills and some other wood products plants to another company.

The new owners are excited about using the mill and the timber to make things and employ people.

Just imagine people in central Newfoundland working in the woods industry with a new company that had bought assets from AbitibiBowater.

Perish the thought.

Just imagine the mess there‘d have been if the provincial government hadn’t swooped in and seized all the stuff AbitibiBowater was ready to sell to another company just so they could create jobs with them.

Chaos, for sure.

Thank God the Old Man was brilliant enough to opt for catastrophe instead.

There are gulfs and then there are #oilspill gulfs

labradore explains in graphic detail the gulf between the Old Man’s bland assurances that such things could never happen here and what an oil spill of BP magnitude in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (centred theoretically on Old Harry or a field near it) might look like.

The Premier focused his attention on current production wells which are a couple of hundred miles offshore.

But there is another offshore that isn’t quite so far away.

Bear in mind this isn’t based on an analysis of currents and so forth.  it’s just what you get if you lay a map of the BP spill in the Gulf of Mexico in another oil rich Gulf.

What opens, as a result, is not so much a gulf but ye olde chasm of credibility that swallows the Premier’s assurances whole.

-srbp-

07 June 2010

Harper and Williams and message control: the second parts

The second part of Canadian Press’ expose.

And for good measure, the second part of the 2006 BP series on the local version of the same idea.

-srbp-

05 June 2010

Famous Comments by Telegram editors

1892:  ‘I’m certainly not buying any argument the city will burn to the ground.”

1894:  ‘I’m certainly not buying any argument that the country is bankrupt.”

January 1934:  “I’m certainly not buying any argument that the country is bankrupt.”

1969:  “I am certainly not buying any argument that this is a bad deal with Hydro-Quebec.”

1988:  “I am certainly not buying any argument that this cucumber factory will be a big waste of money.”

2009:  “I’m certainly not buying any argument that government spending is unsustainable.”

2010:  “I am certainly not buying any argument that the Premier should tell us he is having heart surgery.”

2010:  “I’m certainly not buying an argument that the provincial government expropriated the mill, even by mistake.”

2010:  “I’m certainly not buying any argument that NL simply botched its case.”

Plus ca change, as they say.

The tradition continues (read the comments section).

-srbp-

Oil’s down, budget pucker factor up …again

When you project an average price of oil at US$83 and forecast a billion dollar budget shortfall on that basis, having oil at US$71-ish must make the old sphincter twitch a notch tighter than it used to be.

Heaven only knows what other economic news does.

Kinda makes all that effort spent on poll goosing seem…well…a tad bit…silly.

-srbp-

04 June 2010

Physician heal thyself: Dunderdale version

Natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale displaying her now-usual level of unjustified arrogance:

I advise the Leader of the Opposition to pipe down now and learn a few things. Hold your tongue and open up your ears and learn something so you can stop making a fool of yourself.

She was trying to explain something she clearly didn’t understand, namely open access tariffs for jurisdictions that sell electricity into the United States.

One thing Kath didn’t notice was a crucial part of the provincial government’s argument in front of the Quebec energy regulator. You see, the provincial government’s energy corporation argued that Hydro-Quebec Transmission didn’t follow the rules. 

And that was the sum total of their argument.

They said it.

As the Regie reported and as NALCOR’s lawyers dutifully translated the French:

[386]…NLH did not call any experts to testify on these technical questions or to contradict witness Deguire.

That’s right.  They did not present a single piece of evidence to support their claim or to refute HQT's witnesses.

Now you have to bear in mind that NALCOR’s argument on this was that HQT had failed to do a complete assessment of the five routes along which they theoretically wanted to ship power and five loads they wanted to ship using a direct current intertie as required by the open access transmission rules.  [paragraph 376]

At the last minute, just as NALCOR’s time to option a route was about to expire, they accused HQT of not doing a complete review because direct current intertie was just a NALCOR preference. [paragraph 379] HQT demonstrated pretty easily with documents signed by NALCOR officials that DC was more than just a preference and that it also made a huge amount of technical sense.

[388] NLH did not any tender [tender any?] technical evidence to contradict witness Deguire. In reply, it restricted itself to arguing that it was not required to submit evidence to establish that
the impact study was incomplete and that it sufficed to refer to the wording of section 19.3 of the OATT for a finding that the study did not contain the essential elements required by that regulatory provision.

Just saying it was supposedly good enough such that no evidence was required.

And what about when HQT was able to show that NALCOR’s argument on some points – like say the issue of DC intertie  - was more than a preference?  Well, that apparently really doesn’t require much comment either.  The foolishness of it is readily apparent.

At this point, sensible people are likely wondering not only why NALCOR was pursuing all this but who allowed the lawyers to make such a weak-assed presentation.

Well, that would be either the folks at NALCOR or folks like Kath and the Old Man or both.

Maybe the next time Kathy gets some idea about keeping mouth shut and learning something, she might want to take her own advice.

Quite frankly, that display of breathtaking incompetence in the Regie hearings has succeeded only in making the people of this province out to be complete idiots, not just mere fools.

And she’s ultimately responsible for it.

-srbp- 

The pictures tell another #oilspill story

Natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale, as quoted in a recent Telegram editorial:

Mr. Speaker, in terms of an oil spill offshore, the greatest vulnerability will exist to the bird population.   Mr. Speaker, based on 40 to 50 years of wind study, it is shown that oil, because of the wave action and the coldness of the sea, Mr. Speaker, breaks up and disperses. ... Mr. Speaker, we had an oil spill in 2004 on the Terra Nova. Mr. Speaker, that oil dispersed, broke up, and went away. Ocean floor studies have been done, Mr. Speaker, there is no evidence of oil from that oil spill on the floor around our Terra Nova project.

From the same editorial, a quote attributed to a Chevron report on drilling in the Orphan Basin:

The report notes a spill could cause 'relatively few' to a 'very large' number of seabird deaths. But overall, it concludes a spill 'will not result in any significant residual impacts' on animals.

And when you’ve digested that, take a look at some pictures from the Gulf of Mexico.

-srbp-

03 June 2010

Very lucky indeed

The Old Man Hisself, in the House of Assembly this week, speaking of the $14.7 billion Lower Churchill project, arguably one of the most expensive hydro megaprojects on the drawing boards of North America today:

…from an economic perspective we are in a situation where we have enough information to really sit down and talk with any industrial developer at any point in time.

Yes, NALCOR is ready to talk about building this project any time at all, just as they have before now.

And just for comparison sake, from last fall, energy analyst Tom Adams has a different take:

Just as natural gas from the Mackenzie delta is now recognized as uneconomic in light of foreseeable market conditions, the factors that have driven down power prices in Northeastern North America make the economics of Lower Churchill development unviable for the foreseeable future. Newfoundlanders are lucky that Nalcor, their Crown energy company, is not out in the market the trying to sell high cost power right now. [Emphasis added.]

Yes, the people of this province are lucky indeed to have people looking after the Lower Churchill who’d be smart enough not to try and flog a project estimated at upwards of $15 billion in a depressed energy market.

-srbp-

Enviro minister trades with the enemy

Sometimes it’s hard to know which is funnier:  environment minister Charlene Johnson’s repeated attempts to be arrogant and condescending even when she is completely shagging up or her admission that her answer to the mounds of used tires in the province collected under a recycling program is exactly the same answer used by her Liberal predecessor.

I can get the exact details for him on the cost for shipping to Quebec. Certainly, under their failed attempts in the past that is where the tires went as well, so I imagine it would be somewhere in line when you had to ship them to Quebec as well. Mr. Speaker, shipping tires to Quebec is certainly, we know, the cheapest option for the tires.

Yes, folks, the tires are being shipped to Quebec.

Charlene Johnson is trading with the enemy.

-srbp-

Williams party support drops nine points

Support for the Danny Williams Conservative party dropped nine points in three months according to the latest poll results from the provincial government’s pollster.

Corporate Research Associate’s quarterly poll showed that 58% of respondents indicated they would vote for the provincial Conservatives party if an election were held tomorrow.  That’s down from 67% in February.

cra may 10 The numbers are likely grossly inaccurate even with the correction presented here. The orange line shows the actual percentage of eligible voters who voted Progressive Conservative in the last provincial general election in October 2007. The blue line is CRA’s number, adjusted to remove their artificial inflation of Tory support.

The provincial government’s pollster doesn’t report the numbers this way, though.  CRA routinely inflates Tory support by as much as 28% by only reporting the percentage of decided voters.

These corrected figures also don’t account for the provincial government’s deliberate efforts to skew CRA’s polling numbers. As Bond Papers noted in late 2006, the Williams administration times its communications activities to correspond with their own pollster’s polling periods. probably one of the most significant examples of this would be the Premier’s disingenuous “have province’ announcement during the November sweeps month.

Local news media also routinely report CRA polls inaccurately by accepting at face value the CRA news releases.

Even allowing for problems with CRA’s polling, and for the government’s organized poll goosing efforts, that’s the largest quarterly drop CRA has reported for the Williams Tories since early 2005.

-srbp-

02 June 2010

Lower Churchill costs: now up to $14 billion and counting

According to Premier Danny Williams, the Lower Churchill project – which he estimates at a cost of up to $12 billion -  is “ the lowest cost , the cheapest hydroelectric project in all of North America.”  Dead link to CBC story June 1, 2010 quoting Williams]

That’s more than a bit of a stretch, even for the Old Man and his legendary love of absurd comments bordering on the ridiculous.

A simple comparison of costs based on information in the public domain demonstrates that the Premier’s claims in this case are once again nothing short of ridiculous.

For example, a 1998 cost estimate of the project elements to develop both Lower Churchill dam sites and the transmission infeeds (one to Quebec and the other to Soldier’s Pond, just west of St. John’s) put the cost at $10.5 billion.

Now we can add to that the costs of getting the power across to Nova Scotia, for example and then down into the United States.

According to the Chronicle-Herald, a study done for the Nova Scotia government put the cost of connecting from Newfoundland to Cape Breton between $800 million and $1.2 billion.  Hooking to the US would add another $2.0 billion to $3.0 billion to that.

The only thing we’d be missing at that point is a connection from Deer Lake to Port aux Basques or where ever the line would go to connect with Nova Scotia.

Even at that, we’d be looking at between $2.8 billion to $4.2 billion on top of the $10.5 billion to use the so-called Atlantic route.

That puts the grand total at between $13.3 billion and $14.7 billion.

Not bad for a project that the current administration touted in 2005 as costing about $3.3 billion.
But since Danny Williams said it is the lowest cost hydro-project in North America we can be pretty much assured he was talking through his hat.

Maybe he was talking in relative terms, like say as a measure of how much it would cost to get the power up and out to market for every megawatt produced;  it’s called, not surprisingly, a cost per megawatt calculation.

Well, the Lower Churchill’s 2800 megawatt project would come out as follows.  For good measure, there’s a comparison with the La Romaine project in Quebec which is already under way.

Cost
Cost per megawatt
Notes

$10.5 billion

$3.75 million

1998 projected cost, includes connection Quebec and Newfoundland only (currently under enviro assessment)

$12.0 billion

$4.285 million
2010 Williams upper-end estimate of project costs, link to Newfoundland and Quebec only. [Update]

$13.3 billion

$4.75 million

Low-end estimate to connect to NS and US

$14.7 billion

$5.25 million

High-end estimate to connect to NS and US

$6.5 billion

$4.195348 million

Hydro-Quebec’s La Romaine, 1550 MW

British Columbia’s Site C dam will deliver 900 megawatts for an estimated $6.0 billion so that will more expensive on a cost per megawatt basis.  That’s over $6.6 million per megawatt.  Another power project in Ontario will add 440 megawatts of power to an existing hydro structure for a cost of $2.0 billion or $4.5 million per megawatt.

By comparison, wind power projects run about $3.5 million per installed megawatt, according to a wind industry website.

-srbp-

North Amethyst pumps first oil

A few things to note about the news that the White Rose extension field – called North Amethyst – pumped its first oil this week;

  1. It took only four years to go from discovery to production. reducing the time from discovery to production is huge for the future of the offshore industry.
  2. Tiebacks.  Expect to see more of them as Terra Nova dries out, for example.  Floating platforms are the most cost-effective way to exploit the numerous small fields that have already been discovered offshore. The gang at Terra Nova and eventually at White Rose can just float their hulls around, hook up to underwater pipes and pump the crude cheaply, efficiently and in a way that should be as environmentally sound as oil production can be.
  3. An established royalty regime is a key part of promoting development.  That’s what worked for this deal and helped speed up development. Thankfully, while the 2007 energy plan called for a complete overall of the royalty regime, the generic regime is still in place.  Given the rate the current crowd do things, we wouldn’t see a royalty regime to replace the current one for decades.  As it is, the existing, pre-2003 royalty regimes – not the Old Man’s tweaks – are producing the lion’s share of offshore cash these days.

-srbp-

01 June 2010

How not to do social media

Kudos to the City of St. John’s for adopting a great way to build strong effective relationships with citizens.

"It's important that we communicate with people in ways that they want to be communicated to, and it's about getting the message out to the broadest range of people that we can," Coun. Danny Breen told Monday evening's council meeting.

Spot on, Danny!

But unless the City has its claims already staked to the most common or likely variations on the City’s identity at both Twitter and Facebook, the smartarse brigade will be there ahead of them.

That’s why you wait to unveil your strategy rather than say we are going to be doing this in a while.

AFAIK, @cityoflegends is available as of this moment.

-srbp-

May Stat Porn

From May 1 to May 31:

  • 13,508 visits.
  • 19,427 page views.

Top 10 pages:

  1. The World the Old Man Lives In
  2. Lower Churchill:  Imaginary project.  Imaginary News Stories.
  3. How our system doesn’t work
  4. So long.  It’s been good to know you.
  5. Reach for the Screech.
  6. Tail-gunner Bob:  equality is not a “realistic philosophy”
  7. 2001 Moonbus from Moebius in April
  8. Potato, potato:  hydro version
  9. AbitibiBowater files reorg plan
  10. Court docket now online

By far and away, the most popular specific page in the past month has been the chart of the paranoid world described by the Premier’s statements about Quebec.

The other stories represent a mixed bag ranging from a discussion of our weakened political system in the province to a post about the Provincial Court docket.  Speaking of older posts, the docket one continues to be a popular item for search terms hits.  Ditto the 1/55th scale moonbus model from Moebius.  It’s been a sought-after item since 1969 when the old Aurora issued it for a single season.

-srbp-

Like we told you: Lower Churchill decision up in the air indefinitely

The nugget of news buried in a front page story in Saturday’s Telegram [not online] turns out to be dead on: there is no timeline to sanction the Lower Churchill.

 Bond Papers reported it on Sunday and in the House of Assembly Premier Danny Williams said the same thing. CBC has the story complete with comments from the scrum after Question Period.

That’s a gigantic change from just a few years ago when the pledge was to sanction the project by 2009, start construction in 2010 and then get it pushing power by 2015.

Williams has been pushing back the timelines on the project since 2007 but Monday marks the first time he has tossed the calendar out the window.

None of this will come as a surprise to BP readers.  The problems with the project, including the lack of markets, are old news around here.

In that context, it’s a bit funny to hear Williams complaining about paying for transmission through Quebec.  That’s something your humble e-scribbler noted as long ago as 2007:

The go-it-alone option now being pursued by Williams means that Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro may now have to eat the costs of grid upgrades in Quebec and will certainly bear the cost of the underwater cabling to use the Maritime route. The cheapest estimate for the Maritime route would add an additional $1.5 to $2.0 billion to the project cost.

No word on what all this means for Williams’ personal political future, something he’s linked repeatedly to his continued life in politics.

If the Lower Churchill is off -  indefinitely – then by his own assessment, there’s really nothing holding Williams in politics. 

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