The Manipulation Manipulation #nlpoli #cdnpoli

/What a difference 36 years makes.

There’s  New Democrat strategist Robin Sears in a National Post piece complaining about the way the Liberal are running their guy named Trudeau in lots of situations that give him good visuals.

“He isn’t running to be a boxer or a canoeist, he’s running to be Prime Minister, which is a different set of credentials,” said Robin Sears, who spent several campaigns in the war room for former NDP leader Ed Broadbent.

Now jump back to 1979, courtesy of the National Film Board’s documentary about the federal election in which another guy named Trudeau figured prominently.

The ABCs of ABC #nlpoli

 

In 2004, Danny Williams fought for three months against a federal government decision that had been settled – at least for the federal government – earlier in the year as part of the usual budget cycle.

Williams got the money the federal government had allocated but won the domestic war for public opinion.

In 2007,  Williams and his provincial Conservatives launched a second political holy war against the federal government’s budget decisions.  Williams waged a much longer war,  lost it, but was widely credited at home with a victory.

There were other similarities

The uncivil Civil War #nlpoli

At the heart of the ongoing civil war between Danny Williams’ provincial Conservatives and Stephen Harper’s federal Conservatives is the claim by Williams that Harper broke his 2006 election promise on Equalization.

Williams wrote to each of the federal party leaders and asked the leaders to state their party’s position on Equalization.

Alternatives to the Falls #nlpoli

Since people are wondering if Muskrat Falls really is still the cheapest way to make electricity for local use,  let’s take a look at it.

The tale is actually very simple.

Nalcor argued that Muskrat Falls was cheaper than one alternative:  an island system dependent on thermal generation using some sort of petroleum fuel like the heavy stuff burned at Holyrood.

Now that wasn’t true even in December 2010, as this SRBP post noted at the time. Even if you accept the contrived studies used in 2012 to justify Muskrat Falls,  the massive cost increases for the project have made the Falls more expensive than the alternatives. 

The only advantage Muskrat had over thermal (oil) was fuel and those prices have gone in one direction:  down.  Since you can build a new thermal plant near to the demand source, you wouldn’t need the expensive connections to the mainland.  That all works for oil-fired generation and against Muskrat Falls.

Oil prices have plummeted in recent months and are forecast to stay low,  Muskrat Falls’ only advantage is definitely gone.

Poof!

The smallest details tell the biggest story #nlpoli

Last week, provincial fisheries minister Vaughn Granter held a news conference at a local restaurant known for its seafood dishes to announce that from now on, that restaurant and even ordinary consumers could buy fish.directly from a fisherman without facing any legal problems.

That may sound a bit odd to some people but truth be told the provincial government has for decades banned direct sales to consumers.  Ostensibly it was based on concerns over public health but in truth it was just another way the government tried to control the hell out of the fish business.

Wonderful news.

But the really fascinating detail was buried away in Granter’s speaking notes.

Consumer electricity costs to jump by 51% (revised) #nlpoli

 

The average consumer in Newfoundland and Labrador should expect to pay 51% more for electricity compared to their current  rates once Muskrat Falls comes online,  according to SRBP’s estimate.  Nalcor figures available at the time of writing.the original version of this post suggested a rate increase of 51%.

A household that current pays $156 $179.25 a month for electricity (not including HST, basic charge or provincial rebate) will see their monthly charge increase by $94 $282 a month with Muskrat Falls included in 2020.  Those calculations use Nalcor figures and current domestic electricity rates. 

Former Premier Danny Williams, the man behind the project, dismissed the cost increases for the project as “mouse droppings” and nothing more than the “cost of doing business.” 

Nalcor boss Ed Martin said last week that consumer prices would go up by an additional seven dollars a month due to the most recent increase.  Martin didn’t explain that those calculations were merely the added costs from the latest increase added to Nalcor’s earlier forecast based on cost over-runs.  What Martin also didn’t say was that Nalcor’s calculations started from an assumed price that was significantly higher than actual consumer rates at the moment.

Hyping the stock, yet again #nlpoli

Any oil company seriously interested in bidding on an exploration license offshore Newfoundland and Labrador isn’t likely to need the hyped presentation by the provincial government Thursday.

Exploring offshore is expensive.

Always has been.

Always will be.

Exploring beyond the 200 mile exclusive economic zone, in upwards of two kilometres of water, just makes the oil and gas all that much more costly. to find and more costly to produce.

Muskrat Falls commercial power by Q2 2019 ? #nlpoli

The latest progress report shows that Nalcor had a productive summer, but an extrapolation by the researcher and writer  JM of information in the latest progress reports points to first power from Muskrat Falls in September 2018 and full commercial power by the middle of 2019.

In at post at Uncle Gnarley, JM described the challenge facing Nalcor in 2015:

As correctly noted in the March 2015 oversight report the productivity improvements in Q2 2015 are essential to meeting the final milestone schedule.  For the Muskrat Falls team, the summer of 2015 is really “make or break” for the project.  They need to get the project back on track before the construction schedule is hampered yet again by another Labrador winter. Winter begins earlier in Labrador than it does on the Island. The project team knows this.  The questions is this:  is the productivity improving at a pace where the schedule can be recovered? [sic]  If Nalcor have any hope for schedule recovery they must first start meeting their originally planned productivity targets.  In the July 2014 schedule, they planned to complete about 6.7% of the project in Q1-2015.  With all their mitigation measures, Nalcor should be looking for about 33% complete by the end of June.

Pride and Failure #nlpoli

‘”Pride is a big factor”  a manager at Muskrat Falls told the Telegram’s James McLeod on Monday during the latest media junket to the Big Dig North. People come to work every day and say “I built this.”

Pride is the essence of Muskrat Falls. 

Go back to 2012.

All the business people who looked forward to making a fortune off the project never talked about risk, profits, cash flows, return on their investment, and other stuff you’d expect business people to talk about.

They say stuff like “We believe in good things for our province.”  Or “… we believe we have the courage to harness the opportunity before us and make these things happen.”

Rumpole and the Family Compact #nlpoli

Sixteen of the province’s 22 full-time provincial court judges are either already in or are on their way to St. Andrews, New Brunswick.

They are in for a surprise.

They’ve headed to New Brunswick for the annual meeting of provincial courts judges of Newfoundland and Labrador, called a few months ago by Chief Judge Mark Pike to coincide with the annual meeting of the Canadian Association of Provincial Court Judges.  As recently as 10 days ago, Pike was still finalising the agenda.

Surprise:  now Mark won’t be there.

Pike quit very suddenly and unexpectedly on Monday.  And just as quickly and just as surprisingly,  Attorney General Felix Collins announced Pike’s replacement.  It’s Pike’s wife, Pamela Goulding, a former head of the Crown prosecution service who is the third most junior judge on the provincial court bench.

The judges won’t be surprised by that appointment. 

It’s par for the course these days.

White is the new black #nlpoli

2002.

Stephen Harper said that his party had a program that would help change the dependence in Atlantic Canada on government spending, a dependence that had led to what he called a “culture of defeatism.”

That’s the actual phrase, by the way,  “culture of defeatism.”  Not a culture of defeat as some politicians have put it in the innumerable times since 2002 that they have used that phrase against Stephen Harper in a federal election campaign.

The N-word #nlpoli

New Democratic Party leader Tom Mulcair likely never imagined that an insult he threw at a couple of Parti Quebecois politicians in the Quebec National Assembly 20 years ago would come back to haunt him 2015.

Liberal candidate Nick Whalen likely never imagined that reminding Mulcair of the word he used – “Newfie” -  would rob Mulcair of whatever coverage he’d hoped to get out of his campaign stop in St. John’s.

But it did. 

Then the controversy over Mulcair’s remarks carried on for another two days as New Democrats whined and complained  about the whole issue.  That only served to keep it going.

And to make sure the story didn’t die,  two national pieces  - Colby Cosh (National Post) and Evan Dyer (CBC) – weighed in.  Cosh and Dyer picked up on the context of the original comment and that’s where things stared to get really interesting.

That's Doctor King to you #nlpoli

Not surprisingly, Darin King has decided to leave politics after only eight years.

King is just the latest in a long line of pensionable Conservatives who have decided it would be better to quit politics now with a fat pension rather than risk sitting on the opposition benches for a few years.

If he is remembered at all, King will stand out among his colleagues in the current Conservative administration for two reasons.

Crossing Topsail Road #nlpoli

A new high school has put the better part of a thousand young people on Topsail Road opposite a raft of fast food outlets and a major mall.

Young people will cross Topsail Road, a four–lane major thoroughfare in St. John’s.  it is dangerous.  Things will get more dangerous.  City council is thinking about building a pedestrian walkway way over the street so pedestrians don’t have to cross at street level.

The pedway will be costly.  Some people don’t like the cost and suggest that some other, far less expensive measures would do.  Those people are wrong and here’s why.

Three things about Hurricane Igor #nlpoli

hard to believe but it has been five years since Hurricane Igor ripped through Placentia Bay and into Trinity Bay.

What stands out most about those events today is the same as it was at the time.

First, the devastation was astounding in every respect.

Second,  the resilience of the people affected by the disaster was amazing.

Third the capacity of senior government officials, politicians and bureaucrats alike, to polish their own knob without any justification remains as appalling in 2010 as it was at the time.

No race in Avalon, except for the truth #nlpoli

Tom Mulcair will not be coming back to Newfoundland and Labrador again during the current federal election.

He certainly won;t be coming back to visit Avalon and he will only be back if there is a sense that Ryan might actually have a shot at winning St. John’s South-Mount Pearl.

The only other reason he might come back is if he had a candidate in a fight for a seat.  The latest poll from Mainstreet Research confirms what dedicated political analysts have known for some time:  there is no race in Avalon.  Liberal Ken MacDonald is miles ahead of any of his rivals. 

The New Democrats are a distant second.

“Distant” means the Liberal candidate is out front by more than two to one either in decided voters or if you add leaning to the decideds.

Les vrais newfies #nlpoli

Sometime late in the last century, Bloc NDP leader Tom Mulcair said something in the Quebec National Assembly about Newfies.

Mulcair apologised for the remark during his campaign stop in St. John’s on Sunday, and well he should

“Newfie” is a slur. Even if it is used by people from Newfoundland, the word is still offensive. In some sense, It conveys an attitude about the place as being one so destitute that people leave it in droves for a better life.   In another sense, it conveys an attitude about the people as buffoons. 

So Tom apologised and, as far as that goes, we should hear no more of it.  What we should continue to discuss, though, is the rest of what Tom had to say.

Cabinet control of Crown corporations #nlpoli

Hearings at the pubic utilities board revealed that senior executives at Nalcor received hefty bonuses again in 2014 as they have in other. 

Ostensibly, they are a reward for achieving corporate performance targets. Given that Nalcor has had some serious problems with its capital works and maintenance program over the past decade, it is rather surprising to see people getting great gobs of cash while the company hasn’t been performing.

Ostensibly, the bonuses are part of a compensation package that keeps the company competitive.  That’s how Nalcor chief executive Ed Martin justified the compensation now that we understand they are the chief cause of the cost increases Nalcor is using to justify its request for an increase in electricity rates this year.

Political Calculations 2 #nlpoli

The next provincial general election finishes on November 30, 2015.

Not the way you are used to thinking of it, right?

You think the election happens on that day because, traditionally, that’s the day when most people vote.

Thing is,  voting takes place on several days and pretty much always has.  In Canada,  elections sometimes took weeks and months according to Elections Canada.  The rules to determine who can vote also changed over time.  Some elections in the 19th century had different qualifications for voters in different provinces.

Through all that, the basic goal of the election was the same:  be the one who had the most votes in the ballot box when the elections officials counted them up.

Political Calculations #nlpoli

As you look ahead to the fall election, the bigger political addicts among you are likely trying to figure out different aspects like how the parties might run the campaign.

We got a clue this week with the debate story.  Apparently the front-runner Liberals never thought of forcing the media outlets to pool together and have one debate.  Instead they took the requests one-by-one until they hit their quota of two.  Anyone who came along after that, including the largest private radio network, were shit-out-of-luck.

The episode reveals a curious bit of Liberal political strategy but it made your humble e-scribbler think about a bunch of other calculations that we should likely all keep in mind.

Let’s look at the numbers.

Putting the questions about the debate #nlpoli

The Liberals have decided to skip the provincial leaders debate sponsored by VOCM and the St. John’s Board of Trade.

The reason, according to Liberal leader Dwight Ball is that there is only so much time available, so the party has decided to go with the two television debates that will offer province-wide coverage.

Here are some questions that are begging for an answer…

The state of federal politics in Newfoundland and Labrador #nlpoli

There is a problem, apparently.

A very big problem.

In the current federal election, none of the federal party leaders have visited the province yet.

On Friday, three of the four major outlets in the province all carried some version of exactly the same story.  For the quibblers, the Telly story appeared on Saturday but it had to be written at least the day before.  In itself, that fact says much about the state of the news media in the province and it isn;t a good tale.

NTV had local candidates on Issues and Answers but included a reference to the absent party leaders in the set up.  CBC has a commentary by Peter Cowan on its website about the issue. The Telegram story on the Great Void includes comments from Bloc-NDP incumbent Ryan Cleary for good measure. Only VOCM seems to have ignored this political bombshell.

Near the bottom of a very big rabbit hole #nlpoli

Thursday was one of those days where you felt like you had dropped down the rabbit hole with Alice.

Or maybe had indulged a bit too heavily in some mind-altering substance.

There was Lorraine Michael on the radio complaining that Muskrat Falls would likely cause environmental problems through the release of methyl mercury.  Let’s be clear:  there is nothing we know about Muskrat Falls today on any subject that wasn’t known when Lorraine endorsed Muskrat Falls. Yet, there is Lorraine trying to make it sound like she never, ever supported this megaproject.

Three months later … #nlpoli

In June,  SRBP used the CRA poll from the second quarter of 2015 as the basis for a bit of “what if” thinking.

Consider that the Liberals have dropped seven points in six months.  The New Democrats are up seven in three months.  Extend that trend forward to September.  Then you’d have the Liberals down from 35 to 31.

The New Democrats, meanwhile, would move from 16 to 23. It isn’t unusual at all to see shift in votes during an election a lot larger than the one needed to close the eight point gap you’d have at that point between the NDP and the Liberals.

Guess what happened.

Finding the voice of the next generation #nlpoli

“My Government will harness the desire among Newfoundlanders and Labradorians to cultivate greater cultural, financial and moral autonomy vis-à-vis Ottawa.”

That’s from the 2007 throne speech. 

At the time, the language started a few people.  That’s odd because Danny Williams was basically building up to that point for six years.  He started with a speech in Halifax in 2001 shortly after he became leader of the provincial Conservatives.  He ramped up the rhetoric and the tension through 2004 and into 2005. 

Then in 2006, he went to war again, this time with Stephen Harper.  It was the Conservative re-election strategy and came complete with an anthem composed in 2004.

What’s weird about the 2007 throne speech language in hindsight is not that the Conservatives used it or that some people found it surprising.

Take a look at the second use of the word autonomy and see if you can spot the oddity.

Senior appointments in 2015 #nlpoli

Orders in Council up to the end of August 2015, show that the cabinet has made on 13 appointments at the rank of deputy minister and assistant deputy minister since the beginning of the new calendar year.

That’s roughly on par with the changes made in 2014.

It’s dramatically short of the record 51 such appointments made in 2013 or the very high rates of turn-over in 2011 and 2012.

-srbp-

Adios to another one #nlpoli

Clyde Jackman is the latest provincial Conservative to quit politics.

That’s not surprising.  He was supposed to go in 2011 but hung around to make sure the party didn’t have to make an serious changes in people or policies.

Jackman had a few colourful moments during his political career, not the least of which was his stint as fish minister.  He scuttled an historic agreement to reform the fishery. Clyde and his colleagues couldn’t be arsed to spend money on it when they had all their cash tied up in other things.

Then there was the time Clyde and his colleagues couldn’t be arsed to fund an historic commemoration when Clyde was responsible for tourism.

Other than being part of the crowd that added more public debt to the back’s of provincial taxpayers than all the other administrations since Confederation combined,  Clyde Jackman had a relatively tame political career compared to some of his colleagues.

Now Clyde is retiring.  Not surprising really.  In 2011, he barely scraped back into office in a situation where his party didn’t face huge opposition.  Clyde wasn’t alone.  Lots of his colleagues kept their seats by only the thinnest of margins.  it’s only when you look at the numbers that you realise how just close the Conservatives came to losing in 2011. It wouldn’t have taken much,.

Good bye and good luck, Clyde.

Enjoy the grand-kids.

-srbp-

Timeliness #nlpoli

The federal and provincial governments need to sort out a royalty regime for the areas of the seabed outside the 200 mile exclusive economic zone.

Wylie Spicer of McInnes Cooper has pointed this out in a new paper from the University of Calgary public policy school..

SRBP pointed this out in 2009, at the time of a significant discovery that might have commercial potential.

SRBP pointed it out again earlier this year when the notorious scoff-law Paul Davis said he wanted to get a development going outside the 200 mile limit without having publicly addressed the issue of the new royalty regime. He had started talking about a new royalty regime, apparently, but was keeping it a secret.

Maybe now that someone from Calgary has pointed out this deficiency  someone will notice the problem and do something about it.

Maybe it is something one of the political parties in the province would like to bring up during the provincial election. 

-srbp-

Leadership and opportunity #nlpoli

On Tuesday, the provincial Conservatives launched their election campaign.

It was to be built solely on the image of Paul Davis as a great leader.  They labelled the campaign Davis 15. The revamped the party website and they launched a second site – with the clever address davis15.ca – that included videos by and about Paul.

One of the videos included an endorsement from a police officer who, as it turned out, received a promotion last spring from sergeant to inspector.  Only a short while before he had been a constable.

Omega Man #nlpoli

The word that comes to mind when you look at the new provincial Conservative party website or the davis165.ca site isn’t fresh, new, rebounding, or even trying.

It is “alone”.

You see lots of pictures of Paul Davis.

By himself.

New Englanders know you’re bullshitting ‘em, Paul #nlpoli

The New England governors and eastern Canadian premiers were in town on Monday for a quick meeting.

The only thing that seemed to make local news was talk about electricity sales.  This is old hat for regular readers, but it is worth going over again.

New England wants to buy electricity.  They can get lots of it very cheaply thanks to shale gas lately.  How cheaply, you may wonder?  Well, in August it was running around four to five cents a kilowatt hour wholesale, not including transportation.

To put that in Muskrat Falls perspective,  it is less than half the cost of making electricity according to the estimate five years ago.  Where the price is these days is anybody’s guess.

Ferry Tales #nlpoli

There are times when you have to wonder if provincial cabinet ministers actually realise how moronic they sound to everyone else.

David Brazil is the transportation minister.  By his own admission,  a company in Romania could build ferries for the ferry system in Newfoundland and Labrador for a better price than anyone else.

That better price included – by his own claim – if the provincial government had to pay a multi-million penalty on the project under federal tariff law. 

Chainsaw Earle keeps austerity on the table #nlpoli

NDP leader Earle McCurdy called the province’s major open line show on Thursday and by the sounds of things he hasn’t backed off the position that the size of the government’s financial problems will mean more cuts.

Sure he said he was opposed to austerity,  but what Earle did say was that the government will have to cut jobs, lay people off and slash spending to cope with its financial problems. 

Potato, potato, Earle.

NL NDP boss admits deeper “austerity” on the table as gov cash situation worsens #nlpoli

“All options are going to have to be considered I guess, from both the revenue and the expenditure side, to make the best of a challenging situation,” NDP leader Earle McCurdy told CBC on Wednesday.

“All options” includes more job cuts,  spending reductions, and public sector layoffs in addition to higher taxes.

That endorsement of “austerity” as a serious option is a radical change of direction for the provincial Dippers,.  Up to now, they’ve been adamantly opposed to any cuts to public spending no matter how bad things got.

We should put up a statue or something #nlpoli

There’s something a bit surreal about the news this week.

Well, not really the news itself, so much as the way people are reacting to it.

The drop in oil prices and the forecast decline of jobs in Newfoundland and Labrador are not anything people haven;t heard before.

And yet people seem genuinely shocked.

Let’s understand, there is absolutely nothing – not a single thing – about any of this information that didn’t come with plenty of warning.

The Uri Geller of MUN Economics Strikes Again #nlpoli

Does anyone really take Wade Locke seriously anymore?

Really?

Do they?

Seriously.

Go back to last October to see why.

The next time reporters have Wade on camera, give him a spoon to bend with his psychic ability.

Wade might just be able to do it.  God knows he sure can’t figure out energy pricing and sound economic policy.. 

-srbp-

Honouring Newfoundland Writers #nlpoli

Most of you have probably never heard of a fellow named Alonzo John  Gallishaw. 

John Gallishaw is best remembered in his native land for his brief service in the Newfoundland regiment during the Great War.  Wounded at Gallipoli,  Gallishaw was invalided out of service and eventually went back to the United States.  Born in St. John’s in 1890, Gallishaw had been in the United States at the time war broke out.  He was studying English at Harvard University, of all places.

He took up a teaching appointment and after the Americans entered the war,  Gallishaw enlisted in the American Army in January 1918.  He  took a commission and went to France as part of the American expeditionary force   That was Gallishaw’s hat-trick since he had enlisted briefly in the Canadian army on the war to Newfoundland in 1915.

Moral victory: saying yes to less #nlpoli

A couple of years after his war with one prime minister, Danny Williams was locked in another war with another federal first minister.

Williams was demanding compensation for yet another supposed injustice. 

“What I said before and I said going in, this is about principles,”  Williams told reporters in November 2007 “but it's also about money as well. At the end of the day, the promise and the principle converts to cash for the bottom line ….”

The pattern set in 2004 was repeating itself.   

Mr. Williams Goes to Hell #nlpoli

The story of the 2004 war with Ottawa is the story of disconnects,  mismatches, incongruities, of things that just didn't add up.

October 2004 is a good example.  In the middle of the month,  Loyola Sullivan,   the provincial lead negotiator, went to Ottawa for a meeting with federal finance minister, Ralph Goodale.  he headed the negotiations for the federal government in the effort to find a draft agreement.

Sullivan told reporters the chances of a deal looked good.  The two governments were talking about something that would last eight years and bring the provincial government between $1.4 and $2.0 billion depending on the price of oil.

At exactly the same time, Premier Danny Williams was telling reporters the provincial position had not changed.  "There are no movements from the government of Newfoundland and Labrador,”  Williams told Rob Antle of the Telegram on October 16.  “There's no doubt about.that. We have no intention of moving.”

From agreement to disagreement #nlpoli

On June 4, 2004, Danny Williams delivered a keynote speech to delegates at the oil and gas conference organized annual by the association that represented offshore service and supply companies.

“Newfoundlanders and Labradorians should not support any candidate or any party in the upcoming federal election” he said, “that does not clearly and unequivocally provide us with a commitment to keep 100 per cent of our provincial revenues under the Atlantic Accord.”

The day after Williams’ speech, Martin was in St. John’s as part of his election tour of Eastern Canada. Martin told the CBC that in an early morning conversation with Williams, “I have made it very clear that the proposal that he has put forth is a proposal that we accept."

S’truth #nlpoli #cdnpoli

New Democratic party candidate Linda McQuaig caused a bit of a stir in the first week of the federal election campaign when she said that in order to meet the national carbon emission reduction targets, we’d likely have to leave most of the oil sands oil in the ground, undeveloped.

Writing in the Toronto Star on Tuesday, Seth Klein of the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives said the reaction to what he called McQuaig’s “innocuous and true statement” is just further evidence that “our politics do not allow for serious — and truly honest — discussion of the most pressing issues of our time.”

Klein then decries the fact that all sorts of politicians from all sorts of parties are not embracing all sorts of policies that Klein thinks are not just good ideas but absolutely correct ones.  Therefore, our politics is bad.

Well, it isn’t actually. 

The 2004 war with Ottawa revisited #nlpoli

The 2004 “war” with Ottawa over a version of federal Equalization payments to Newfoundland and Labrador is an early episode in the provincial Conservative administration.

The confrontation helped propel Premier Danny Williams to unprecedented heights of popularity.  This, in turn, affected the rest of his tenure as Premier.  It was a critical element in his quest for political hegemony in the province during his first term.

In SRBP’s review of Ray Blake’s new book on federal provincial relations, there are some comments about Blake’s chapter on Danny Williams and the war with Ottawa in 2004. The review wasn’t the place to get into that.  The subject is too big. 

This post will explain the problems with Blake’s accounts and with other accounts of the period.

Diversity #nlpoli

Labrador economy must diversify to survive, say opposition parties.

There is a CBC headline to conjure with.

Pure political magic for the two parties promising something different from what has gone on before.

Liberal leader Dwight Ball told CBC that we “must look at the other advantages that we would have available to us, things like power.” 

"This government talks a lot about the export of power. I want to talk about using that power as a competitive advantage for us."

Lorraine Michael, for the New Democratic Party,  said that "Government has to have long term plans that will deal with helping communities and workers when the issues arise."   Michael thinks that we have been too dependent on private sector corporations in Labrador.

No one has ever heard those ideas before

Essence #nlpoli

The Telegram has been running a series this week on the number of communities in the province where people can’t drink the water supplied by their local municipality.

Regular readers will know the issue as it first came up here in 2009, in 2011, and in 2013. 

A couple of years ago, CBC was highlighting the problem.  Your humble e-scribbler reminded the universe that giving people water fit to drink was one of those fundamental commitments the Conservatives made to the people of Newfoundland and Labrador in 2003.

And it was one of those fundamental commitments that they failed utterly and completely to honour.

There is no greater fraud than a promise not kept, their leader used to say.

He was absolutely right.

Sucks to be us #nlpoli

Not so very long ago,  provincial Conservatives were crowing about how they would be running all sorts of mining projects in Labrador using electricity from Muskrat Falls.

These days, the word from Labrador isn’t all that good.  One mine is closed and, on Tuesday, things looked bad both for the major mine operating in western Labrador and the KAMI project.

No one can take an glee in the bad news. What we should do is remember that the assumptions on which the Conservatives spent heavily over the past decade were completely inconsistent with about a century and a half of experience with resource extraction industries  years in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Rather than learn from our considerable, collective experience, the Conservatives arrogantly assumed they alone knew better than everyone else.

They didn’t.

We all get to pay the price.

Oh joy.

-srbp-

Lions or jellyfish: a review

Historian Ray Blake’s new book  Lions or jellyfish:  Newfoundland  - Ottawa relations since 1957 is likely to be be on many reading lists. 

It should be.

Blake examines:

• the Term 29 dispute,
• hydro-electric development in Labrador between 1960 and 1970,
• resettlement,
• offshore oil and gas ownership,
• Meech Lake,
• the 'Williams’ “fair share” argument.

Resettlement gets two chapters, one before 1965 and one for the period afterward.  Likewise, offshore oil and gas gets two chapters, the second focussing on the period between 1979 and 1985.

Blake examines the relationship between the province and the federal government in the context of Canadian federalism and, specifically, through the lens of executive federalism.  That is, he frames the discussion as one focussed primarily on the relationship between the individual first ministers. There are sound reasons for doing this. Blake describes his reasons for doing so and puts the book in a general theoretical framework in a crisply written introduction.

The name they fear #nlpoli

Cast your mind back to April 2007

In his ongoing penchant for fighting with everyone and for small-mindedness,  Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Danny Williams decides he will only refer to the new Prime Minister as “Steve”.

Williams made no bones about the fact his decision was very personal and intended to be insulting.

Debate Quickies #nlpoli #elxn42

The first English debate is over.

Here are some quick observations to help you cut through the huge amount of noise coming from the conventional media.

Debate host Paul Wells showed why he’s one of the best political journalists in the country.  Read his opening column on the campaign, in case you missed it. 

As for the party leaders, here it is in the short form:

Stephen Harper

Looked and performed like Stephen Harper, the guy who has been prime minister for the past decade.

His weak spot was the senate. He wasn’t clear on the party policy.  When discussing who controls senators,  Harper admitted his gang are puppets. You can say the same thing of the senate that Harper said of the Bloc-NDP position on a sovereign Quebec:  who the frack wants to bring THAT up again?

Other than that, steady as she goes. 

What was most remarkable about the PM was that he was the same old steady-as-she-goes guy.  For his folks, that is reassuring.  For his opponents, that’s a bad thing since it means none of them managed to get a knife edge under his armour and expose a bit of flesh to chew on.

Thomas Mulcair

Three words:  smug,  uncomfortable,  robotic.

Having not watched much of Mulcair in the House, your humble e-scribbler now understands that conventional media journalists who praise his sharp debating skills or his strong style are on something.

Not onto something.

On something.

Seriously.

Weak moment:  What’s your number?

The alliance with Bloc supporters is Mulcair’s greatest liability.  Both Trudeau and Harper took turns savaging the Bloc-NDP leader and he handled all of it badly. They will return to this again and again in English Canada.  Mulcair cannot run from it, as much as he clearly wants to. Without that huge base in Quebec, Mulcair is just another small party leader with a beard.

To go with that strategic problem, you had a really clear tactical blunder:  Whoever told Tom to recite “What’s your number?” should be shot.  It made him look condescending, and that’s the most generous thing you could say about it. The fact Mulcair set Trudeau up for his highly quotable riposte mirrored the way the NDP strategy is playing neatly into the federal Conservative agenda.

Funny moment:  when he slipped in the line about standing with Jack Layton.  It looked scripted and desperate at the same time. Expect to see Mulcair ditch his own wife for campaign appearances with Olivia Chow by his side and lots more references to Layton,  the Dipper Ronald Reagan.

Mulcair’s strongest moments were on the economy, which is also where Harper was the weakest.  Reciting economic stats.  Nerds got wood.  No one else did. This could have been the spot where Mulcair shone.

Could have been.

Elizabeth May

Give her some rest and you have by far the strongest performance of the night, overall.  May spoke clearly, intelligently, and succinctly about her party position.  She did the same when going at the other four over theirs.

Weakness:  prefacing every comment with “all due respect”.

At best, it was tedious.  At worst,  it was transparently passive aggressive. 

Given Mulcair’s evident discomfort and May’s strong performance, don’t be surprised if the Bloc-NDP start shying away from other debates.  Bloc-NDP support is notoriously soft.  The Greens could bleed NDP support in the west.  If May performs like this again and again, that could erode the Dipper position in some close races. They’ll want to hide their man away and let him only appear in tightly scripted moments as they did on opening day of the formal campaign.

Justin Trudeau

He showed up with his pants on, the right way around.

The Conservatives lowered expectations of Trudeau to the point that his performance will surely help change perceptions of him in key ridings.  The Cons might want to rethink that strategy.

Weak point:  the closer.  Ugh.  Did he end?  or wait.  There are a couple of words I forgot. Let’s.  stumble.

Strong point:  my number is nine.

A scripted line drilled into the candidate’s head. The boys and girls in the Grit backroom did their oppo in spades or have a spy in the Dipper debate camp.  They anticipated the NDP line and gave Justin a rejoinder he delivered with consummate skill.  It was probably the only quotable moment of the night in a debate that was surprisingly devoid of the quotable one-liners we are used to. 

Trudeau isn’t out of the woods on credibility yet but his debate performance was a step in the right direction.

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PQ hung up over Old Harry #nlpoli

Pierre Karl Peladeau won’t say yes or no to development of Old Harry, according to ledevoir.com.

Le Devoir interviewed the Parti Quebecois leader during a recent visit to the Magdalen Islands.  Peladeau refused to endorse a moratorium on development,  a move favoured by the islands fishermen who are concerned about the potential economic and environmental damage that could result from a major oil spill. Peladeau said the issue of a moratorium needed more study.

Peladeau insisted, however, that any decisions about Old Harry belonged solely to Quebec. He criticised the recent introduction of a bill in the National Assembly that would enable Quebec to establish a joint management board like the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board.

“If the Gulf is in federal jurisdiction,” Peladeau told Le Devoir, “recall that it is Ottawa that sets fish quotas. In an independent country, the question would not arise.”

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Figuring out what the parties are doing in #elxn42 #nlpoli

Updated

 

If you want to get a really good summary of the contending election strategies at this early stage of the federal campaign, read Evan Solomon’s piece at macleans.ca.

It’s simple, concise, and – from the feel of it – informed by conversations with people who know what is going on.  That sets Solomon apart from a lot of media types who write “analysis” pieces.

The Conservatives strategy has been to drive Trudeau’s numbers down so that Mulcair rises.  So far so good.  While Solomon considers this a risky strategy for Harper,  all you have to do is look at the New Democrats to see it could be a very effective idea.

Minority rights in education #nlpoli

It’s one of those persistent comments.

You don’t hear it or see it every day but, once in a while it comes back.

Like in 2013 .  Some guy used the discussion about access to in formation – specifically rescinding Bill 29 – to wonder if we might be able to rescind the supposedly anti-democratic referendum on denominational education.

That’s actually the most common term in that letter to the editor:

• “The referendum violated many democratic ideals.”
• “A 32-day notice for a referendum is disrespectful of democratic ideals.”
• “The mandate for both referendums was suspicious and anti-democratic.”

Half and half #nlpoli

On the first working day during August, 2015, the provincial government issued four news releases.

Two announced funding from the spring budget.

The other two warned reporters of two more funding announcements to be made on the second working day in August.

Corporate Research Associates will be in the field very soon.

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This is your political life: Ross Wiseman #nlpoli

Anyone surprised by the news isn;t paying any attention to local politics at all.

Ross Wiseman has his pension. It cannot get any fatter.  He likely won’t get re-elected in the November general election and even if he does, Wiseman has no interest in sitting on the opposition benches now that he has been in government.

15 years is long enough, sez Ross, so he won’t be running in the next election.

For those who are shocked and for the entertainment of the rest here are three moments from Ross’ political life over the past 15 years.

The Friday before it starts #nlpoli

There are plenty of signs that the federal Conservatives will start the official campaign for the fall election earlier than scheduled.  Earlier being as soon as Monday, rather than the usual federal campaign period of five or six weeks before polling day on October 19.

You’ve got to call it the official campaign because the fixed election date has meant that parties engage in an unofficial campaign months before the official campaign starts.  All the Conservatives will do – if they drop the writ on Monday – is trigger some particular election rules and get the open warfare started a bit earlier than usual.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, the early federal election will have a significant impact on the provincial election due in November.  We are not talking about the strain on campaign volunteers.  We are talking about public attention and money.

More ways to lose than win #nlpoli

“What this province needs is not just someone with the brains to figure out what's wrong with our economy,” future Premier Kathy Dunderdale wrote in 2002. 

“What this province needs is someone with the guts to start doing something about it for a change.”

Dunderdale’s letter to the editor of the Telegram appeared on April 1, 2002.  She was praising Danny Williams, not surprisingly.  The then-opposition leader had savagely attacked the government during debate in the House of Assembly on the annual throne speech.

No more give-aways, was their cry.

You can hear the words ringing in your ears all these years later.

As Karl’s mom would say… #nlpoli

The Conservatives came to power in 2003 promising to do things a new way.

People thought that meant the Tories would do away with the practice of stuffing people into fat government jobs based solely on their political connections.

And so the Conservatives proved they were different by appointing failed candidate Joan Cleary to run the Bull Arm Corporation.  Cleary had absolutely no relevant experience, but they owed her some pork and so she got the high-paid job.

The Grecian Formula and mineral rights #nlpoli

In the late 1990s, the provincial government faced some tough financial times.  The debt and the size of the economy were the same number. The government went through the usual rounds of layoffs and cuts, and the sorts of things they needed to keep the budget under control.

One of the things government did to help deal with the financial state was to get rid of a batch of provincial parks that it had built up since the development of the provincial roads system in the 1960s.  They weren’t parks in the sense of the national systems in Canada or the United States.  They were campgrounds and picnic sites.

In 1997, they billed the 21 sites as “business opportunities” for private sector or local not-for-profit groups.  By the end of the year, they’d manage to get rid of the lot.  “These parks were made available to the private sector, tourism minister Sandra Kelly told the House of Assembly, “because they offered viable business opportunities for rural Newfoundland. Government also realized that it no longer needed to play as large a role in the recreational camping industry as it once had in the 1970s.”

Recreational camping industry.

Smoke, mirrors, and Harper’s senate moratorium #nlpoli #cdnpoli

Heading into an election and with the three major federal parties within five or six points of each other in the opinion polls, the Prime Minister has decided that this is the time to talk about reforming the senate.

Stephen Harper said last week that he will not make any more appointments to the senate.  His plan is to create a crisis and then either reform the senate or abolish it in the ensuing melee among and with the provincial premiers.

The New Democrats are flattered. They have already advocated abolishing the senate altogether. This is a popular idea in Quebec where the NDP are threatened by the resurgence of the Bloc Quebecois.  The NDP won its current status as official opposition in 2011 with a surprising haul of seats in the province as the Bloc vote collapsed and its supporters looked for a politically friendly home. 

The sovereignists found a welcome embrace from the NDP.  To the extent that anyone else in the country thinks about the senate, it is likely only as the object of derision given the recent scandals over spending.  Few have thought through the implication of the NDP plan.  In Newfoundland and Labrador, for example, it would cut in half the province’s representation in Ottawa. 

The Line They Didn’t Need #nlpoli

For some time now, Nalcor has needed an extra line from Bay d’Espoir to increase the capacity across the Isthmus of Avalon. 

They just kept finding excuses not to install it.

In January 2014,  Nalcor chief executive Ed Martin told CBC’s Ted Blades that  the line would be the most expensive option with additional generation on the Avalon being more cost-effective.  Nalcor’s analysis, according to Martin, showed there was no justification for the extra line. 

Gull Island? Dead duck. #nlpoli

From the Financial Post, Tom Adams and Ed Hollett take a look at three issues that will hold up any development of Gull Island:

While Gull Island might have a modest edge over Muskrat Falls’ cost per unit of production due to its greater size and less challenging local geology, it’s highly doubtful that Nalcor would be able to offer Gull Island electricity at Ontario prices that are remotely competitive. That is, not without massive subsidies from somewhere.

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Reality check for the Ontarians, please #nlpoli

If nothing else, media coverage about energy talks between Ontario and Newfoundland and Labrador shows just how much people don’t know about what is going on in the country.

Not a crowd for half measures,  the National Post ran a story on Monday morning that was rife with basic factual mistakes.  They even started the piece with a statement that had two facts in it, both of which were simply not true.

“Ontario is the latest customer to line up to purchase Newfoundland and Labrador’s growing supply of hydroelectricity…”

Always ready for a better tomorrow #nlpoli

Ontario and the faltering Conservative administration in Newfoundland and Labrador are talking about the possibility of developing Gull Island to supply Ontario with renewable energy. 

CBC’s online story on Monday said exactly that:

Ontario eyeing Lower Churchill hydroelectric power from Labrador.

But if you listen to what  grim-faced energy minister Derrick Dalley said to CBC’s David Cochrane during the supper hour news on Monday,  there is a lot less to the announcement than first appeared.

Maternal mortality #nlpoli

Black women in the United States are twice as likely to die as a result of complications of pregnancy and childbirth as are white and Hispanic Americans, according to new research.  The story turned up in The Economist over the weekend.

Between 2006 and 2010,  the death rate for black women was almost 40 per 100,000 deliveries compared with just over 10 for Hispanics and whites. 

But there’s more.

The United States is one of only eight countries globally to see its maternal mortality rate head up in decade 2003 to 2013..”American women are now more than three times as likely to die from pregnancy-related complications as their counterparts in Britain, the Czech Republic, Germany or Japan,”  according to The Economist.. The overall American rate of maternal death is 18.5 for every 100,000 live births.

Seven with one blow #nlpoli #cdnpoli

Seven companies in Newfoundland and Labrador have reached a deal with Elections Canada in the Penashue illegal contributions case.

According to Canadian Press, the companies have reached an agreement with Elections Canada in which the companies admit to making illegal contributions and promise not to do so again.

“Executives of Air Labrador Ltd., Dee-Max Innu Tautshuap Ltd., Innu-Chiasson Construction Ltd., Kakatshu Construction Ltd., Labrador Sales Ltd. and N.E. Parrot Surveys Ltd. admit they directed their companies to donate $1,000 each to Penashue’s campaign.

The CEO of Pennecon Ltd. [the seventh company] admits that six of his company’s officers were involved in sending Penashue’s campaign a $5,500 corporate cheque.”

Federal election finance laws prohibit corporations from making political donations.

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Arse Foremost #nlpoli

Politicians help out with each other’s election campaigns all the time.

There’s nothing unusual for a municipal politician to work on a provincial or federal campaign or for a federal politician to help a provincial colleague.  Sometimes  the one politician will work as the campaign manager for another.

Usually,  the politicians don;t broadcast the fact. There are many reason s for this. Not the least of the reasons is that the campaign is about the person seeking election, not the staffer, regardless of the fact that the staffer might be well-known publicly in his or her own right.

That’s one reason  why it is so odd for Conservative Jonathan Galgay to be so vocal and public about the fact that Liberal candidate Paul Antle has taken Galgay on as his campaign manager.

That’s gotta suck, big time #nlpoli

All the country’s provincial and territorial leaders – except for Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia – are in Newfoundland and Labrador this week for their annual conference.

What an  opportunity for Paul Davis in an election year.  He gets to show himself off looking all leader-like and premieral or whatever the word is for it.

The first day of the meeting the premiers and territorial leaders discussed aboriginal issues in Goose Bay.  In the afternoon, Davis laid on an all-expense-paid trip to the super exciting megaproject at Muskrat Falls.

And then everything went horribly wrong.

It was Greek to me #nlpoli

After days of intense talks,  the Europeans apparently have finally reached a final deal to help Greece out of its latest financial misery.

Greece is broke.  With a gross domestic product of about US$238 billion, the country had a government debt of about US$346 billion.  Some of the country’s banks have very low reserves of cash.  People have already made a rush and withdrawn their money from them.  This has forced the government to impose a tight limit on withdrawals in order to avoid a bank collapse of the type that hit Newfoundland in 1894.

Under the new deal,  the European Union will place officials in key parts of the Greek government in order to ensure that the Greeks actually implement reforms that are part of the bail-out deal.

It’s a tough response, but then again the Greeks are in a tough economic spot.  The third tough spot, since 2009. For all that, though, there are people around the world who believe the whole problem is imaginary.  They believe that something called “austerity” is the real culprit.  If you just got rid of it, so this way of thinking goes, the Greeks could go back to the way things used to be.

Cripple you say? #nlpoli

Unnamed Conservative “insiders” have been talking about the Ches Crosbie nomination fiasco as if it was a rejection of a new Tory Jesus or something.

The way they talk you’d think people are waiting breathlessly for the pictures on Jane Crosbie’s Twitter feed of young Ches taking his first steps across Virginia Lake, just as his father and grandfather did at his tender age without getting so much as a bunion moistened.

Some of these nameless Conservatives   - to use the words from the CBC story – .”believe Ches Crosbie could have raised at least $100,000 by now for his run in Avalon. Many of those donors will now sit on their wallets rather than give cash to another candidate.”

Now that’s an interesting claim.

Overcooked Ambition #nlpoli

Nameless Conservative Party insiders predict that without Ches Crosbie as a candidate, the federal Conservative party will be crippled in Newfoundland and Labrador in the next election.

Supposedly Ches could have raised $100,000 dollars already.  But without Ches, they won’t raise a penny. Volunteers will stay home, too.  

But here’s the thing: 

CBC’s  story on Thursday is essentially more of the same completely preposterous Ches-the-Saviour-of-the-Conservative-Nation fairy tale that John and Jane Crosbie have been shovelling since Canada Day.

The long summer campaign #nlpoli

Liberal leader Dwight Ball kicked off a 10 week campaign swing around the province this week.

It’s basically a tour of the local festivals coupled that the party leaders do every summer.  This one is a bit different.  Ball has a few planned speeches mixed in there somewhere and Ball will be driving a white car with a big picture of him on the side.

As the Telegram’s James McLeod reported on Tuesday, Ball told reporters that the tour will “be about the economy and jobs. It’ll be about health care. It’ll be about education and many other things.”  Those are the top three issues with the public as identified by public opinion polls.

Mostly, Ball said, the aim is to have a “grassroots” summer of meeting with people and talking about the issues that affect the province — and talking about how the current government is letting people down. [Telegram]

Mostly, the tour will be about real consultation.

Confidence Builder #nlpoli

The public utilities board asked Liberty Consulting to review Hydro’s decisions in 11 projects.

Hydro is looking for a rate increase.  The board wanted to make sure the increase was justified.

Of the 11 projects, the consultant found:

• “Liberty found Hydro’s decisions and actions imprudent in seven of the eleven specific projects or programs set for examination by the Board. Liberty identified adverse cost consequences associated with six of these seven projects or programs, laying a foundation for consideration of the propriety of their recovery from customers. Liberty found planning and execution of the seventh project imprudent, but concluded that Hydro would have borne essentially the same costs even in the absence of such imprudence. 
• Of the remaining four specific projects or programs, Liberty found that Hydro had acted prudently with respect to three. Liberty did observe significant weaknesses in the supply planning process related to one of these projects, the new combustion turbine, but not to a degree that would constitute imprudence. For the fourth, Liberty concluded that while Hydro acted prudently in making its decision, some of the costs incurred were influenced by imprudent prior actions.
• The twelfth area of Liberty’s review consisted of an identification of 2014 actual capital costs and operating expenses that could be attributed to imprudence. This identification lays a foundation for later efforts that seek to identify any such expenses that may form part of Hydro’s estimation of a 2014 Revenue Deficiency of $45.9 million.”

“Liberty found that the costs that Hydro could have avoided in the absence of the instances of imprudence found by Liberty were:

• Actual 2014 capital costs of $10.9 million (as reported by Hydro)
• Actual 2014 operating expenses of $13.4 million.
• Estimated 2015 operating expenses of $2.6 million.

With that sort of report, you just know that Nalcor has just gotten everything exactly right at Muskrat Falls.

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Canadian Forces recruiting centres and demographics #nlpoli

The Canadian Forces is planning to move its three full-time recruiting staff out of the office in Corner Brook and move them elsewhere.

From now on,  recruiting on the west coast will take place like it does pretty well everywhere else in Canada:  via the Internet.  The military recruiting system will send staff out to Corner Brook a few days a month.  They can always travel to high schools or job fairs to promote the Canadian Forces as they do now.

Documents leaked to David Pugliese at the Ottawa Citizen  last month said that the Corner Brook office has one of the lowest numbers of recruits in the Canadian Forces system.  The Corner Brook office, along with the one in Sydney Nova Scotia and Oshawa Ontario are affected by the changes.

Impotence and weakness #nlpoli

If you take John Crosbie’s version at face value,  the Conservative Party rejected his son Ches as a candidate for the party in Avalon because of the intervention of David Wells.

Wells,  the son of retired justice Robert Wells,  is a senator from Newfoundland and Labrador.  He is also an influential Conservative, the sort of fellow who normally goes about his business largely out of the public spotlight.  .

Thanks to Crosbie, Wells is in the public eye.  According to Crosbie, Wells didn’t  “want Ches to be elected as an MP in the district of Avalon or any federal district because he would be too independent-minded and [Wells] wouldn't be in control as he has been now for a couple of years of most of the transactions between Newfoundland and the federal government.”

What the venerable Conservative was doing with that accusation was telling us less about the specific events that led to Ches’ rejection and more about a bigger story behind the scenes in Conservative politics.

Way behind schedule #nlpoli

The reports you will likely read in the conventional media all peg the Muskrat Falls project as behind schedule.

That’s what the latest project update from the provincial government and Nalcor says.

The media reports are also citing an overall number that has the project modestly off schedule.

You need to look at the whole report.

Through a glass, darkly #nlpoli

Imagine that Newfoundland history is enclosed inside a gigantic room.  Inside the room everything is pitch black.

Every now and again,  someone opens the door and goes inside the room to take a look at an event somewhere in the past.  They don’t have much in the way of light to help them see.  When they get to whatever spot they are looking for, they take a picture and bring out with them to tell the rest of us the story of what they saw in the dark room.

If you had hundreds or even dozens of people going in and out of the room,  after a while you might build up a really clear picture of all the stuff inside.  Unfortunately,  only a few people have gone in.  Some of them have come out with nothing more than sketches.  Some of them brought cameras and a couple had the sense to get short movies.

For anyone who wants to understand what happened in our collective past, you can see what kind of a problem there is.  Not only have we only had a handful of people go in, a lot of them go to the same place over and over again.  In some cases,  people interested in the local history don’t even go into the room  any more. They just describe to us the sketches and out-of-focus snapshots taken by others.

John Crosbie and the Last Crusade #nlpoli #cdnpoli

Every story told thus far about Ches Crosbie and the riding in Avalon has the unmistakeable odour of bullshit about it.

The latest twist, namely that Senator David Wells was scuttling a potential rival as The Biggest Conservative in Newfoundland and Labrador, is a bit more in the realm of plausible but it still doesn’t quite ring true.

Jihad against people who dissed Harper?

The Great War and Newfoundland Political Memory #nlpoli

“It is sobering to think,”  historian Sean Cadigan wrote in the Telegram on Tuesday, “that the memory of the casualties of war has been used partially for later political purposes for almost a century.”

Cadigan was recounting the history of the ceremony on July 1 that started in 1917 to mark the anniversary of the battle in which hundreds of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians died in a few short minutes.

It is possible that, in the process of "remembering," we may be in danger of forgetting the real aspirations of the men of 1916 when we gather on Memorial Day tomorrow.

Sobering though it may have been,  Cadigan had no trouble using the corpses at Beaumont Hamel for his own purpose and that is where we begin. 

Forget-me-not #nlpoli

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Forget that Orange Wave Thing #nlpoli

Two-thirds of respondents to the most recent Abacus-VOCM News poll said they believed the Liberal Party will win the next provincial general election.

That’s an important question because recent American research suggests it is a good indication of the actual vote result than the traditional “which party will you vote for?” question.

There’s another reason why this question is important.  Look at the contrast between NDP and Conservative supporters.  More than half of New Democratic supporters think the Liberals will win. 

Only  28% of Dippers think their own party will win the next election.   A majority of provincial Conservatives think the Tories will win. But get this:  37% of Tories think the Grits will come out on top.

People who think there is some kind of NDP wave about sweep the universe can think again.

Rex, re-districting, and getting it right #nlpoli

Rex Hillier:  the first political victim of the bill that redrew the political map in Newfoundland.

Simple story.

Easy peasey.

And complete crap.

The not-so-rare leap: @abacusdata June 2015 #nlpoli

Two different polls from two different pollsters using two different polling methods have shown basically the same thing:  the New Democrats and Conservatives are duking it out for second place, both of whom remain well behind the Liberals who hold a massive lead in provincial politics.

Corporate Research Associates (May) showed the Conservatives still slightly ahead of the New Democrats.  Abacus Data’s most recent poll for VOCM shows the New Democrats slightly ahead.

Abacus’  David Coletto described the NDP  jump as “rare”, but that’s not really the case.

Porter makes history #nlpoli

Steve Porter made history on Thursday night.

He defeated an incumbent in the House of Assembly  - Rex Hillier  - in a party nomination fight.  This doesn’t happen very often, mostly because political parties in Newfoundland and Labrador have seldom held nomination contests at the district level involving incumbents.

That isn’t a function of the lack of interest among prospective politicians. It’s just been the practice to grant incumbents a lock on the district once they win the nomination the first time. That’s one of the reasons why local politics can’t really be considered to be highly competitive.  The parties restrict the opportunities for challengers to enter the fray.

Porter tried for the nomination before and lost to Hillier in a squeaker.  He didn’t put together a strong get-out-the-vote operation the last time and wanted to give it another go. This time around Porter had some help from experienced campaigners.  It made a difference.

Aside from the specifics of this particular situation, contested nominations are an important way of refreshing a political party.  The competition keeps everyone on their toes.

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She's a class act all the way #nlpoli

The House of Assembly closed on Tuesday, likely for the last time before the next election.

Sure,  Premier Paul Davis said he may call the House back in the fall for a quick amendment to a law, but for most members, Tuesday was the last day of the session.

And for some members, like George Murphy, it was their last day in the House of Assembly, period, full stop, end of story.

They all got a few minutes to say a few words and get emotional.

And after all the formal proceedings were done,  the three party leaders got to speak.  It’s fascinating to see what they said about their colleagues, as recorded by Hansard

Purity Factories' advertising no treat at all #nlpoli

Venerable local food manufacturer Purity Factories has a new advertising campaign featuring its delicious cream crackers.

On a billboard in the east end of St. John’s,  the line in big letters opposite a shot of the product says “not gluten free.”

The tag below it right next to the company logo is “Treat yourself.”

If all you know about gluten is the current bullshit diet fad based on junk science, then you might think this is a clever ad.

But for Newfoundlanders and Labradorians with celiac disease,   there’s no treat in eating food with gluten.

George Murphy quits politics #nlpoli

Whenever anyone runs down politicians as a group,  remember George Murphy.

And then give the boor who ran down politicians a lash in the arse.

That’s basically all that sort of person is good for:  a target for your boot.

We need more people like George Murphy in public life,  not fewer. He is a fundamentally decent, generous, and thoughtful person. While there are plenty of people like George in public life, thankfully, and in life in general, we can never have enough.

Tree Politics #nlpoli

From your humble e-scribbler's yard,  the province's political parties as revealed by trees.


First, we have the Conservative Party.

Knows it's a tree

Lots of branches down below.   Up at the top, a few little shoots who some times look like they are on top.

The truth:  no matter what it looks like, there remains only  One True Leader.

Second, we have the Liberal Party.

Knows it's a tree.

Lots of branches down below.

But a bit of a mess up on top with a  bunch of different branches trying to be the leader.

Third, and last, is the New Democratic Party.

The same tree as the rest,  just a lot smaller, and a bit heavy on one side.

Thinks it's a rose bush.

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No equity? No surprise. #nlpoli

It didn’t take long for Paul Davis to get the comparison he was looking for last week.

The Telegram - not surprisingly – offered it up in the editorial on June 17:

“Premier Paul Davis pulled a Danny Williams Tuesday,”  the editorialist wrote.

Davis told the annual NOIA oil and gas industry conference that a deal to develop Bay du Nord was mere weeks away.  Never mind the complexity of the project:  500 kilometres offshore,  in very deep water,  very deep under ground.  Never mind the complexities of international law not fully resolved yet.  Never mind the project economics – whether it can be developed profitably -  are still unknown.

Never mind anything.

The goal was the comparison.

What district is Earle in, again? #nlpoli

Since the bill to change provincial districts cleared the House last week,  the provincial New Democrats have been tweeting sanctimoniously about the harm done to rural districts by the bill.

All those rural seats lost,  they wail.

All very undemocratic,  they cry.

And all very much a load of shit, at least as far as the Dipper claim goes.

The politics of information #nlpoli

A couple of recent post are reminders of how important it is to take a look at issues in the province from another perspective.

On June 10,  you will find a post about crab fishermen from New Brunswick who want to sell their catch to a company near Corner Brook.  The problem is that federal regulations limit where the fishermen can sell their catch. The policy is rooted in the sort of local protectionism that lay behind opposition in some quarters to European free trade.

Thursday’s post (June 17) was about remarks by Quebec’s energy minister about offshore oil and gas in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.  Pierre Arcand argued that Quebec had better sort out an agreement with the federal government over jurisdiction for the offshore resources.

Old Harry was sitting there waiting for development and Newfoundland and Labrador,  Arcand said,  was ahead of Quebec.  The result could be that Newfoundland and Labrador would  wind up reaping huge benefits from the Old Harry field.  Quebec, meanwhile, would be left behind. 

Newfoundland forcing Quebec's hand on Old Harry #nlpoli

The Bay du Nord field is far offshore and far from development, Paul Davis’ optimism notwithstanding.

It’s way the hell offshore (about 500 kilometres),  way the hell under water (more than two kilometres) and then way the heck under the sea bed  (about another two kilometres).  It’s not going to be easy and it sure as heck isn't going to happen in less than five years.

Premier Paul Davis likely talked up the prospect of an agreement  to develop Bay du Nord because he needed something to say at the annual offshore development conference this week.

What’s curious, though, is that he never mentioned a far more interesting project that is far easier to develop.

A troublesome and costly pattern #nlpoli

There are so many problems raised by Premier Paul Davis’ zeal to sign an agreement with Statoil for the Bay du Nord that it is difficult to know where to begin.

Perhaps the best place to start is with the deal announced the day before Davis’ oil news.  The provincial government gave $6.5 million in public money to an insurance company to establish a major corporate office in St. John’s. 

Newfoundland and Labrador got the company to move here by engaging in a bidding war with other provinces that were anxious for the business.  Newfoundland and Labrador essentially gave away the most.

That’s what happens when you bargain in a weak position.

The Moveable Fixed Election Date #nlpoli

Arguably, the greatest fairy tale the Conservatives spread after 2003 was that Danny Williams didn’t take a salary from the people of Newfoundland and Labrador.

The truth was he collected every penny of his salary from the day he entered the House of Assembly until the day he left.

The second biggest fib they told was that there were fixed election dates.

Brad Wall's case for abolishing Premiers #cdnpoli #nlpoli

Saskatchewan premier Brad Wall thinks that making the senate an elected institution that better reflects Canadians is too hard.

Rather than reform the senate,  Wall wants to get rid of it altogether.

Wall thinks that the provincial Premiers should do the job currently done by the senate.

Here’s why no one should take senate abolition seriously.

Here’s why those proposing it don’t have the best interest of Canadians at heart.

Small things and big differences #nlpoli

The Auditor General delivered his annual report on some of the provincial government’s programs and services on Wednesday.

We learned, among other things that provincial government consulting contracts have gone horrendously beyond the amount originally budgeted.  The worst case was a contract – presumably related to the Corner Brook hospital  - that wound up  being 780% beyond the original budget. 

One of the big culprits in the escalating costs were change orders.  Those are, as the name suggests, changes to the original contract required because of changes made by the government. That was the case both in capital works contracts that involved changes to construction but in service contracts as well.

A tonic for NDP Amnesia #nlpoli

When he was a member of the House of Assembly in Newfoundland and Labrador,  NDP member of parliament Jack Harris  double-billed the legislature for more than $2,000 in expenses and made $27,066 in "donations" from money originally intended to operate a constituency office and inform voters about his activities.

-srbp-

Related:  Jacks and the Auditor General

The cost of out-dated ideas #nlpoli

The Barry Group plant near Corner Brook pays a better price for crab than a competitor in New Brunswick.

New Brunswick fishermen can't steam across the Gulf of St. Lawrence and sell their product in Corner Brook because of restrictions on their license.

They are same sort of restrictions that apply to local fishermen and which lay at the heart of regressive measures like minimum processing requirements.  The result is that fish processors in this province lose out on product for their plants and fish plant workers can't get enough work.

Don't believe it?

Check out a recent story in l'Acadie Nouvelle. [translation by google and SRBP]

"They are interested. They saw the quality of .my crab and they asked me how they could do to access other crab like that. I replied that the best way would be to open a factory in the Acadian Peninsula. Sure, between showing interest and actually doing it, there still has work to do, but at least they can learn," he said.

-srbp-

Deaths in Modern Conflict

The Fallen of World War II from Neil Halloran on Vimeo.

-srbp-

The Politics of Menses #nlpoli

Until now, we had no idea how our governments valued menstruation.

Some of you might be surprised to think this was a question but now we have an answer.

Both the federal and provincial governments decided last month to remove the harmonised sales tax from tampons, napkins, and other feminine sanitary products.  In Newfoundland and Labrador, that added 13% on every purchase.

The government in Newfoundland and Labrador refused to put a value on the tax, but your humble e-scribbler is willing to take a shot at it.

A lot can change in three months #nlpoli

The Liberals and the Conservatives dropped in the most recent Corporate Research Associates poll and all that vote went to the New Democrats.

Let’s look at the party choice numbers without the skew of looking only at decideds.  Here’s a chart showing the CRA results since the last general election, including Monday’s numbers.

Red = Liberal

Orange = NDP

Blue  = Conservative

Thin blue/black = Undecided,  do not know,  won't answer.

Small ball, election dates, and other minutae #nlpoli

Later today, Premier Paul Davis will introduce a bill in the House of Assembly that, among other things,  sets the next provincial general election for the last week of November. The most likely day for voting is November 24, with the official campaign starting 21 days before that.


There’s no surprise in this. The Conservatives have been talking about November as an option since January when they introduced the plan to cut public representation in the legislature. Reporters asked Liberal leader Dwight Ball at the time if he thought the election should be delayed to November to avoid a clash with the federal election set for October 19. Ball said he didn’t have a problem with the delay.

For the past couple of weeks, Ball has been insisting that the Conservatives need to have the election done by the end of September. That’s the anniversary of Paul Davis’ election as Conservative leader. It’s also the third different position, incidentally, that Ball has taken within the past six months on the timing of the next election. At the end of last year, Ball told the CBC he thought people should go to the polls in February in order to let a new government deal with the provincial government’s financial problems. A couple of weeks later, Ball had no problem with a November. Now, he wants it all done by the end of September.