Loyola new ambassador to Dublin next?

Looks like Loyola Hearn is up for a new job.

With former Prince Edward Island Tory Premier Pat Binns shifting from his comfortable digs in Dublin to more comfortable ones in Boston, that leaves a diplomatic post open. Binns went to Dublin in 2007 to replace a career diplomat who’d been in the job of about a year.  Binns’ relocation looks to be a bit premature.

Word around Ottawa for some months now has one of the architects of the Conservative Party merger heading to the Emerald Isle to replace Pat Binns. Yes, folks, if the rest of the little scenario plays out, Loyola Hearn will be the new Canadian ambassador to Ireland.

Loyalty to Stephen Harper certainly seems to have its rewards so it wouldn’t come as any surprise if the next diplomatic appointment sent Hearn to his native soil.  Hearn stuck with the party he helped create and its new leader through the family feud. 

Now that the feud is officially over its would be only natural for the leader of Canada’s other Reform-based Conservative Party to endorse the appointment.

Wonder what Danny would say about that appointment given the harsh words he used to have for Loyola?

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Housing starts in NL down by 28% in July

Housing starts in the province were down 28% in July 2010, compared to July 2009 according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. [Link to Telly story]

There were 195 starts across the province in July 2010 compared to 270 in the same month of 2009.

More interestingly, only 19 of the 195 starts were outside the metropolitan St. John’s area.  That puts a July 2010 CBC story on the economic boom that is supposedly Grand Falls-Windsor in a different light.  it also gives an excellent sense of what is happening in the provincial economy, as a whole, when one gets beyond the overpass.

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The Old Man, Old Habits and Old Chestnuts

labradore lays bare the foolishness that is the Old Man’s latest anti-Quebec tirade.

Score one for His Premierness’s crack research and intelligence team; after all it was just three weeks ago that Quebec’s intergovernmental affairs Minister — unlike some provinces, they actually have one — telegraphed his province’s opposition to federal subsidies for transmission lines.

…

Curiously, these nefarious Quebec plots seem to cycle at about three-month intervals; His Premierosity exposed the previous one back on May 12th.

And yes, ladies and gentleman, the last time the Old Man got in a back-risking lather was during the month his pollster was in the field collecting numbers.

Funny how that happens.

Regular readers of these scribbles will recall that the Premier’s foray into the anti-Quebec realm prompted this rather neat diagram of The World as the Old Man Sees It.  Thousands of you read it, no doubt laughed and – in a great many cases- downloaded it as the wallpaper for your computer desktop.

Perhaps it’s time to get some tee shirts made up. They’d go like hotcakes.

Levity to one side – and it is hard not to snort at this same old story being recycled yet again -  your humble e-scribbler would be remiss if there were not reminders of the following salient points:

1. There is no Lower Churchill project the power from which would presumably course down these currently non-existent but hopefully federally-funded transmission lines.  NALCOR has no customers and doesn’t have the $14 or so billion the thing will cost.
2. Not so very long ago, Danny Williams was working feverishly to get Hydro Quebec to take an ownership stake in the Lower Churchill, with no redress for the Churchill Falls contract included.  This would be – of course – completely contrary to his pre-2005 comments/commitments on the subject.  This is the biggest story of 2009, if not the entire Williams administration to date.  It remains one story that the conventional media in the province have steadfastly – and one must say now very deliberately – refused to mention for almost a full year. They have determined it is an “un-story” despite the evidence from natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale’s own mouth.
3. There is no Lower Churchill project.
4. Your humble e-scribbler first discussed the whole idea of the permanent campaign and the quarterly poll goose in a series of posts in 2006.  There’s “The ‘Danny’ Brand”, “Playing the numbers”, “The media and the message” and “The perils of polling.”
5. There is no Lower Churchill project.
6. The bit from the CBC story after “particularly”  is false:  “Williams has had a tempestuous relationship with Quebec officials, particularly after regulators in Quebec in May dismissed Nalcor's bid to move power to U.S. markets on Quebec's transmission system.”  The Regie d’energie did no such thing. Anyone who read the decision in English or French would know that. Your humble e-scribbler’s challenge from May remains unanswered.
7. There is no Lower Churchill project.
8. This bit is absolutely true:  “when we have a situation when one province is deliberately trying to thwart at least two other provinces, and indirectly affect four other provinces, that's sad."  And the Old Man should know since the last time it happened, he did it.

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A summer like no other: torquing in Technicolor on the cheap

One of the great things about summer for perpetual campaigning is that cabinet ministers can spit out sheer nonsense and reporters for the local paper won’t even bother to ask pesky questions.

Like how will an imaginary project could ever  lower carbon emissions in the real world.

And in this bucolic world, where minister’s publicists apparently don’t have to pitch a puff piece, even one of the most incompetent of ministers can sound like she knows something.

The result is better than the stuff pumped out by the official government publicity system:  in this case, the reporter’s name goes on the piece and it appears in a local newspaper. Having gone through a supposed editorial review, the resulting piece suddenly has way more credibility than it actually deserves.

Charlene Johnson – arguably the second biggest bumbler in the current provincial administration  - recently got the chance to dazzle readers of the Western Star with her thoughts on how the province has an opportunity to lead the world in tackling global warming.

“There are opportunities to use energy more efficiently, displace fossil-fuel based power generated by Holyrood with renewable energy from Lower Churchill, and ensure we continue to manage our land and forests in ways that store greenhouse gases rather than release them to the atmosphere,” Johnson said.

If Johnson knew something more than her briefing books or was willing to speak frankly, she’d acknowledge a couple of relevant points here.

The most obvious is that the Lower Churchill doesn’t exist and likely won’t exist within the next decade or two.  As such, any ideas about reducing emissions from Holyrood using the Lower Churchill is just pure bullshit.

Second, the government’s energy plan places economic benefits ahead of environmental ones.  It isn’t about sustainable development or reducing the province’s greenhouse gas emissions.  It isn’t an energy plan or environmental plan as much as it is a business plan.

Everything is held hostage to the LC anyway, but the project talks about ways of building new energy generation for export.  It doesn’t address local needs at all.  If it did, the plan would set policies that encouraged energy conservation on the island and the development of new generation that has a low environmental impact. 

You can see this rejection of local needs in the Lower Churchill environmental review documents, for example. The first thing that strikes you is that the LC isn’t needed to meet current or anticipated energy needs on the island. 

Those demands are so minor that a combined program of conservation (including improved efficiency) coupled with new generation (more than 54 MWs of wind) would meet any demand anticipated in the LC documents.  And just remember that document was drawn up in a world where all that hydro from Abitibi’s Grand Falls-Windsor operation was making jobs in central Newfoundland.

As for Labrador, the Lower Churchill documents plan to continue using diesel generation, despite the fact power lines for the Lower Churchill would pass right by some of the communities it plans to leave on diesel generation. As astonishing that seems, that is the project the province’s environment minister is holding out as a way of dealing with emissions in the province.

This is not a new idea, by the way.  The 2005 climate change action plan contains the same fundamental bias in favour of large, expensive megaprojects.  It anything but a modest development of wind energy because wind is supposedly intermittent.  However, experience elsewhere shows that wind can deliver consistent power levels if a series of projects over a wide area are joined together and managed effectively.

There are opportunities for Newfoundland and Labrador in the fight against global warming.  The problem is that the provincial government policy rejects ideas that could take advantage of those opportunities or puts obstacles in their way.

Anyone can see the fundamental problems in the provincial government’s policy – it doesn’t actually have a sustainable development act or a green energy policy, for example – if one had the time or took the time to read.

Fortunately for Charlene, the crowd at the Western Star didn’t have the time to get ready for her.  As a result she gets to spout complete bullshit and have the Star present as if it were gold.

What better way for a bumbling minister top spend August than torquing in Technicolor on the cheap.

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A summer like no other: the labradore analysis

Take a gander at this analysis at labradore of the stunning blizzard of funding announcements from a single ministry in the Williams administration.

More than one third of all releases issued since June 1 have been from a single department and all involve hand-outs of government cash. The traditional ministry of pork – transportation – is in second place with 8% (23 releases).*

Now your humble e-scribbler has another perspective on the Summer of Love, Part Deux in the works, but in the meantime, labradore gives a couple of useful observations:

For two, a whole lot of little funding announcements, of a few thousands to tens of thousands of dollars at most, keeps the public mind dutifully associating Danny Williams-Government with the expenditure of money, in a wide variety of geographic locales, without the sticker shock of using roads, schools, or hospitals to generate happy headlines.

For three, there really isn’t anything of substance going on inside Danny Williams-Government that can be used to keep the flow of Happy News flowing in a pre-pre-election summer. Anything big and important that can be delayed until calendar year 2011, will be. That leaves the smaller stuff.

There will be plenty more small stuff next year - don’t be so foolish – but both those points are dead on the money. It is a perpetual campaign in Newfoundland and Labrador.  The politics never stops. Only the naive and Danny-lovers would have you believe otherwise.

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*  Corrects from typo in original.

Offshore #oilspill review gets indefinite extension

A provincial government review of offshore oil spill response that was supposed to be done with 90 days will now have an indefinite extension.

The initial news release  - issued May 12 - said that the “consultant will meet with the Department of Natural Resources to develop a work plan to complete the scope of work within 90 days.”

That means that under the original deadline, the commissioner was supposed to hand in his report on August 12.

In a news release issued on August 9, natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale said he would now have an extension.  She didn’t indicate the new deadline.

Dunderdale said the the extension came at the request of the commissioner. She did not say if the extension came as a result of the consultation that was supposed to happen three months ago in order to ensure the work was done by the original deadline or if it came more recently.

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Polling month update: This post was written based on the news release issued by the department on 09 Aug 10.

While Dunderdale didn’t think it was important enough to mention in the news release, both the Telegram and CBC are reporting that Dunderdale expects to receive the report in November.

November is the next polling month. How convenient.

But how firm is that deadline?

Disclosure and scheduling delay Vermont/Quebec hydro deal

A 25-year power purchase agreement between Hydro Quebec and Vermont is being held up because of HQ’s concerns about disclosure of sensitive commercial information,according to Vermont Public Radio.

HQ is reportedly concerned that some information, such as pricing, be held back from public disclosure when the deal goes to the state’s public service board for review and approval.

The deal involves the Vermont Energy Commission, which has already agreed to the terms, but other entities, like the Burlington city energy authority will also buy a small portion of the 225 megawatt purchase.  Burlington and other similar authorities will have to put the deal to a public vote.

“Simple logistics” is also reportedly still holding up the deal. Mid-summer proved to be a difficult time to ensure that politicians and state and provincial officials are all available at the same time when some of them would be taking vacations.

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Williams-era capital spending pales in historical terms

Danny Williams is proud of how much money his administration spends, like, for instance, the amount spent on roads, bridges, schools and other public works.

In the run-up to the 2007 general election, Williams told the St. John’s Board of Trade that his administration “invested like never before in neglected and crumbling infrastructure, and creating significant employment.”

Here’s what he told a small audience in Ottawa in early June:

We [weathered the recession better than anybody] by taking our already aggressive infrastructure strategy from four years earlier and expanding it. "Stimulus spending" was well underway in our province long before it became the trend of 2009.

A five billion dollar infrastructure plan in a province of our size is substantial to say the least, and has not only helped to create jobs and boost consumer confidence; it is also rebuilding communities so that we have the economic foundations necessary to succeed.

He just “expanded” an “already aggressive” infrastructure strategy. That’s the same line he used on Calgarians in 2009.

But figures available from the provincial government show that Williams’ claims don’t match reality. There was no shortage of capital spending nor could Williams’ approach be characterised accurately as aggressive let alone unprecedented.

Between 1991 and 1995, for example, public sector capital spending in the province ranged between 25.4% and 30.4% of the total CAPEX spending in the province.  From a low of 9.4% in 2004, Williams has doubled the share of CAPEX spending but the highest year is still only 18.4%.

But the real tale comes when one looks at the actual amounts adjusted for inflation. In 1991, for example, while the province experienced the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, public sector capital spending was $548.8 million in 1991 dollars.  It peaked at $898 in 1994.  During that time the entire provincial current account budget was less than $3.5 billion.

Adjusted for inflation (to 2009), though, capital spending in that same period ranged from $853.62 million to $1.284 billion.  The best the province has seen since 2007, by contrast is 2010, where public sector capital spending is expected to hit $1.127 billion.

The figures are available at the provincial finance department’s website.

This comparison does not take into account the project delays and massive cost over-runs experienced during the Williams period to date.  Almost half the capital works projects announced in 2009 as “stimulus” were either begun or announced previously. At least one dated back before 2003.

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Connies and "stimulus"

According to the parliamentary budget officer, capital works projects funded by the federal government's stimulus program are far enough behind that some of the provinces and cities might lose out on the promised cash from Ottawa.

According the PBO report, an optimistic projection would see all projects finished on time, a middle scenario would see 936 projects unfinished by the deadline resulting in $293-million or 7.3 per cent of infrastructure stimulus money going unspent. A pessimistic scenario would see 1,814 projects missing the deadline, resulting in $500-million - or 12.5 per cent - of the infrastructure stimulus lapsing.

Meanwhile in the easternmost province, a Reform-based Conbservative Party has consistently had trouble delivering everything from capital works to legislation. Cost over-runs are now the norm.

And if that wasn't bad enough,almost half of their "stimulus" was actually old stuff already underway.

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AbitibiBowater creditors meeting

10:00 AM Eastern Time, September 14, 2010 at the Hilton Montreal Bonaventure.

Big ad in the business section of the Monday Globe and Mail.

Will the provincial government be there?

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NALCOR: the power of constipation

Supposedly all we need is to know that the provincial government’s energy corporation, d.b.a. NALCOR, is “aligned” and will take all the time it needs in order to arrive at a “quality decision” on whether or not to install emission control equipment on its diesel generating plant at Holyrood.

For now, let’s leave three things out of this discussion.

First, this isn’t the place to rehash the nonsense which is NALCOR’s two, inherently contradictory position on Holyrood.

Second, and related to that, let’s not draw too much attention to the fact that NALCOR chief executive Ed Martin’s proposed solution to the $600 million cost of cleaning up Holyrood’s act is a multi-billion dollar pair of hydroelectric dams in Labrador and a giant set of power lines, the lines by themselves estimated to cost more than three times the scrubber cost, that will stretch out to the Avalon.

And third, let’s not note that NALCOR’s own capital plant maintains that Holyrood will have to continue running for the next two decades at at least one quarter to one third its capacity.  In other words, it won’t be shutting down at all.  As such, NALCOR will have to spend the $600 million or so in order to reduce noxious emissions from the plant regardless of whether the Great White Whale gets built or not.

Why Ed Martin and his boss, the Old Man, continue to pack around about this and bullshit the people of the province is beyond rational comprehension.

Instead of that, let us focus Martin’s suggestion that maybe some new types of generation might allow NALCOR the dirty power at Holyrood with some nice clean stuff. That might be cheaper, sez Martin than the environmental cleaners.

For starters, Martin is already sitting on juice to help replace Holyrood.  He got it as a gift from Danny in December 2008.  The only problem – apparently  - is that the interconnection between the Avalon and the rest of the island cannot carry the whole load. 

NALCOR needs some cash to make things happen. NALCOR has the cash, of course, or the capacity to borrow it, thanks to some generous gifts of public money  - yours and mine – courtesy of the Old Man and his crowd. The company is in a nifty position, frankly, since they get to play at being an oil company without having to pay all the costs.  NALCOR won’t pay the owners of the resource  - you and me - a penny in royalty for the oil we’ve given then.  We get the liability and the cost.  Martin and his crowd get the cash.

Pretty sweet deal, if anyone is asking.  And frankly, given the generosity of the current administration with resources and cash – yours and mine - it wouldn’t be too much if you and me expected Martin to install the cleansers and the new line most ricky tick.  He can spare us the bullshit and just get on with the job.

But it is when Martin mentions wind energy that he turns from a purveyor of  annoying bullshit to profound disingenuousness.

As Martin knows, this province has the smallest amount of wind power installed or under development of any province in the country.  It is a mere 54 megawatts in two sites. Tiny Prince Edward Island has more than twice that already on the go.  In short, this province, the one the Old Man and his retinue proclaim as a current and future energy warehouse is so far back in the field that it is not even close to being able to see the far distant ass the of the last place contender for the Crown.

There are two reasons for that.  Assuming that Martin read the Lower Churchill environmental applications he already knows that there is actually no reason to build the LC if the main reason is shipping power to St. John’s.  There’s really no need for additional generating capacity and, as it stands, NALCOR can now reduce Holyrood to virtually nil capacity.

As for the rest of the province, that is, the largest bit of it, the reason there are no wind farms under consideration is simply because NALCOR and the province don’t want them.  Official government policy subordinates any new generation, from small hydro to wind, to the Great White Whale project.

Put another way, innovation is dead as a doornail in Newfoundland and Labrador. The provincial government’s energy policy is working against the best interests of the people of the province.

Ed Martin’s comments to CBC recently could just as easily have been summarised with a parody of the old Mexican bandito line:  “Innovation?  We dun need no stinkin’ innovation.” Martin merely affirmed the power of constipation that afflicts the administration and its energy company, at least when it comes to innovation and energy.

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Connies, pork and electoral ridings

On the federal level, the Globe and Mail reports that the federal Conservatives directed federal spending cash from the stimulus program heavily toward battleground ridings.

Wow.

Connies, pork, patronage and polls all tied together.

Quel surprise.

Meanwhile, in a small province to the east ruled by a Reform-based Conservative Party,  nothing could be further from the truth.

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Telly Torques Tourism: one story, two headlines

Submitted for your approval:  the same story with two headlines. 

“Northern peninsula needs to spark interest: group” as the Telegram put it.

Ho hum.

But what about ‘Tourism association looking for ways to battle drop in visitors” as you find it in Western Star?

This is a good an example as one will find of an editor sticking a headline on a story that doesn’t match the story underneath. Sometimes it is the result of unadulterated stunnedness.  Sometimes, it is deliberate.

The telegram headline makes it sound like the Viking Trail Association just needs to pull up its socks and do better.  But the actual story includes this comment from Barbara Genge of the Viking Trail Tourism Association:

The Northern Peninsula falls under the umbrella of the Western Destination Marketing Organization, which is a setup Genge says has expectedly seen a drop in marketing funds specifically to the region. Since they are one piece of the whole western region, she says they are competing with other areas for what is available.

In order words, the Viking association is losing out to other more populous areas or ones led by people with more clout.  A UNESCO World Heritage site may be getting short-shrift.

The Telegram headline covers up a far more intriguing and complex tale. The Western Star – where the story originated – actually got it right.

And the story actually includes a balancing view from the umbrella tourism association.  Mike* Clewer, executive director of  WDMO told the Star:

“We have limited resources, both financially and in human terms, and we try and do the best we can, which is to work with groups like that who are trying to help themselves,” Clewer said.

But none of this is as devoid of flavour as the Telegram would have you believe.  It’s almost like they were trying to make you skip over it.

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* Mike, not Mark.

Telly Torque: fact checking edition

A Telegram story on local bloggers includes this statement of supposed fact:

Blogs have been discredited by mainstream media because their content generally doesn’t go through as rigorous an editing or fact-checking process as you’d see at an official news organization.  Theoretically, you can say anything, regardless of veracity, provided it isn’t legally problematic.

Funny thing is this statement is complete, total crap.

It is incorrect, inaccurate, non-factual and generally a false statement.

The Telegram writer doesn’t offer a shred of evidence to support it.  Of course, it’s the kind of ridiculous generalisation for which there is no evidence. It is not actually a fact but an opinion.

And, in case you missed the point, it is an opinion based on no known facts of any sort.

For all that, the comment made it into print after passing through a supposedly rigorous process of editing or fact-checking.at the Telegram, a reputedly official news organization.

Score another one for the mainstream.

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Anatomy 101 #fail

Sometimes people can get a bit buggered up in their discussion of technical issues.
Like for instance, the hot subject of "liberation therapy" as a treatment some people are proposing for multiple sclerosis.  This involves inserting a small balloon into veins at the back of the neck in order to open up the blood vessels and allow greater blood flow.
Here's how one blogger described it recently:

Unlike angioplasty liberation treatment goes deeper into the veins in patients heads than typical angioplasty

The procedure involves a small incision in the groin to insert a catheter into the blocked vein that is opened with a small balloon.

That is exactly how it appeared, dropped punctuation and all. Deeper in the patient's head apparently involved going "in the groin". Let's leave aside entirely the definition of what angioplasty is and hence what "typical angioplasty" might be.

Let's just look at the description of heads and groins.

Now your humble e-scribbler is not a doctor, nor does he even play one on television.  Yet at the same time, this connection of the head, neck and groin by the unnamed blogger appears to be something of  an epic failure of basic human anatomy.

Well, that is unless he thinks peoples' heads are supposed to be up their asses.

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Traffic Drivers, August 2 - August 6

1. Ah, that explains everything.
2. Holyrood pollution and the Great White Whale
3. Quebec's possible new role as an energy player
4. Kremlinology 24: the Whine List
5. Polling month starts in earnest
6. Jerome! if you want to
7. Privatize NALCOR?
8. I knew Marilyn Monroe
9. Court docket now online
10. Coming or going?

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Show us the tit and we’ll suck it

Newfoundland and Labrador is the only place in the western world where private sector businesses look to the government as the key to economic diversification:*

“If we have some guidance and support, take some initiative on our own, we can grow Corner Brook,” [ the vice president of the Greater Corner Board of Trade] said. “I think it is a great time to be doing business or setting up new business in this region. If people are interested in that, have an entrepreneurial spirit, to let that take control and get that business off the ground.”

There is no entrepreneurial spirit in Corner Brook, evidently, not if the local business association thinks that increasing government spending is the way to “grow” the economy.

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*  Here’s the link left out of the original piece.  The same e-mail correspondent who pointed out that glaring error in the timed post also noted that the quote doesn’t support the government hand-out thesis.  Well, with the link to the whole story, it should now be clearer.

Diversification links to investment, but the investment sought is public cash:

Meanwhile, Goulding said it was important for these seven ministers [ on the cabinet committee] to realize the realities of the business sector in western Newfoundland and ensure that government does all it can to support business.

The vice-president said businesses need support and training in such areas as succession planning and getting business starts. In terms of attraction and retention of businesses, that is where he said the provincial government has to step up as a follow to the establishment of business retention and expansion co-ordinators and a performance management system for regional zone boards.

“What they need to do now is expand on those types of programs,” he said. “Let’s get those business retention and expansion co-ordinators out in the field, on the ground, talking to entrepreneurs and new and upcoming businesses to give them the support that they need.

NL posts part-time employment gains in July

After a couple of months of big changes – up and down – in employment, Statistics Canada is reporting the number of people working in the province grew by one half of one percent in July compared to June 2010 and 3.3% compared to July 2009.

The biggest gain came in part-time employment. That’s up 8.9 percent month-to-month and 14 percent year over year.  Full-time employment dropped one percent compared to June but is up one and a half percent year over year.

Total employment grew by 1,000 jobs from 218,800 in June 2010 to 219,800 in July 2010.

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Privatize NALCOR?

The head of the Newfoundland and Labrador First Party wants to turn Marine Atlantic over to the private sector:

“I say privatize it because it’s a government organization and it smacks of being government-run,” he said. “I think a lot of the problems they’re having sometimes deal with unions. ... Maybe a private operator will come in, get rid of the unions and get things back on an even keel. I think it’s a drastic step, but sometimes drastic measures are what’s needed.”

Makes you wonder how he’d feel about NALCOR, another Crown corporation that can’t seem to deliver on its commitments. The latest one is a 2007 commitment to clean up emissions from its thermal plant at Holyrood. 

According to NALCOR chief executive Ed Martin, he and his team are “aligned” on the issue  - shades of 2012 - but will take as much time as necessary to make a “quality decision”.

Someone should ask the people of Holyrood if they agree with Wayne Bennett.

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Jerome! if you want to

So the Premiers are getting together and one of the Premiers can’t go.  Let’s say he has a bad back.

The meeting is about the economy.  Who does he send to stand in for Hisself in all his premierifficness?

Three guesses.

Hand-picked usual stand in, d.b.a. deputy premier Calamity Kathy Dunderdale.

Nope.

Intergovernmental affairs minister Dave Denine.  Seems logical.  It’s a meeting among governments and that’s pretty much the definition of what an intergovernmental affairs minister should be doing.

Nope again. Dave Denine may have the title but he is really just building up pensionable time.

Hmmm.

Economy, right?

Finance minister Tom Marshall.

Nope for a third time. The Old Man sent the province’s health minister to an economic meeting.

Sure the guy was finance minister for a few months, but there are other people with nominal responsibilities that cover the meeting agenda topics long before you get to Jerome! Kennedy.

Curious.

Among other things, what you have here is a clear sign that Jerome! is one of the trusted handful who actually run the province.  Despite his griping, Danny does run the place just like he used to run the private businesses.  He handles things with a few trusted chums and that’s it.  Jerome!, Tom and Kathy are the latter day version of Steve, Ken and Dean. If something needs doing, Danny will turn to one of those three to get it done.

And let’s face it when the Old Man bitches about pesky things like internal party politics – let alone politics generally – what he is really saying is that he wished the world would frig off and let him rule his fiefdom as if it were a law firm or cable television company. 

The only thing he has ever asked is that people regard his voice as if it were the voice of God Himself. The only reason the Old Man has a caucus, a cabinet of more than three in the first place and a legislature of 48 is that he can’t easily get rid of the constitution.

Understand that and you understand everything.

Understand as well, that when the Old Man finally does pack it in, Jerome! is likely the guy to replace him.  Kathy and Tom are heading for the door likely before the next election.  Joan Burke may have a war chest but odds are that we’ll be talking about Premier Kennedy once Danny flips to Florida permanently.

Some of you may be wondering about the talk at the meeting about the economy and what role the federal government should play in continued stimulus spending.  You may be pondering what impact any of this will have on Newfoundland and Labrador. Premiers are agreed that the federal government should continue to spend.  They are only divided on the question of how much. Quel surprise.

Newfoundland and Labrador would be in an embarrassing spot on this issue and it will be interesting to see what, if anything, Jerome! has to say. 

He could not easily side with the other “have” provinces who now want the private sector to drive the recovery.  After all, Jerome! and his friends have presided over an unmistakeable – and presumably deliberate -  weakening of the private sector in the province.  Never mind Danny Williams’ claims about leading a Reform-based Conservative Party; his actions don’t match his words. 

Rather, the “have” province of Newfoundland and Labrador would have to side with the “have not” provinces like Ontario that want the federal government to keep pouring cash from its bank account to keep the place going. Williams, Kennedy are forecasting yet another record cash deficit for 2010. More are on the way in a province where public spending is the only thing keeping some parts going at all. Danny Williams, the leader of a Reform-based Conservative Party would have to wind up in the same position as Jack Layton, begging for Stephen Harper’s help.

It’s a good thing Danny’s back went out.  Jerome! can sneak in and sneak out without anybody really expecting him to say much.  If Williams had shown up then all his contradictory positions would be laid bare. His piss poor relationship with his fellows would be on display for all the world to see. He’d have a pain, alright, but a bit lower than his back.

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