A leaf from Harper’s political playbook, by J. Layton

Jack Layton and the New Democratic Party want the federal government to drop the goods and services tax on home heating costs.

Layton had a wonderful story to go with his call, as recounted by Aaron Wherry at macleans.ca:

“Mr. Speaker, Frank Rainville is a senior in Sturgeon Falls, Ontario who told me about how his bills for basic utilities have gone up by $20 a month just this past month because of the government’s HST,” the NDP’s Jack Layton reported a short time later. “He asked me how he could cope with heating bills when he has to turn the thermostat on because it is cold up there. The fact is heating bills are going up all across the country and working families are struggling right now. Will the Prime Minister show some leadership, join with us and work to take the federal sales tax off home heating fuel now?”

Yes, folks, Jack Layton and his fellow new Democrats are standing up for the working poor, people and fixed incomes and all sorts of downtrodden, hard-done-by people. Well, at least that’s what the die-hard Dippers out there will tell you.

But just think about it for a second. Mr. Rainville is going to have to cough up an extra $20 a month for heating thanks to what Layton has taken to calling the Harper Sales tax.  Rainville’s on a fixed income and that 20 bucks will come in handy.  Even though Layton’s little HST cut is aimed primarily at voters in Ontario and British Columbia where the HST is very unpopular, there are plenty of Mr. Rainvilles throughout Newfoundland and Labrador and the same cut to the heating costs will help them out, too.

Yay, Jack.

Well, not so fast.

These sorts of blanket tax cuts – the stock in trade of conservatives  - have the wonderful effect of cutting costs and they have the even more wonderful effect – from a Connie perspective of helping rich people proportionately more than people like Mr. Rainville. In St. John’s someone in public housing will get a break, but the person down in King William Estates or one of the other swankier neighbourhoods springing up in St. John’s East will just love the cut on heating oil or electricity that it takes to make their blimp hangers all the more cozy in the cold January night.

If Jack Layton really wanted to help people on fixed incomes, he’d go for something other than a blanket tax cut. Layton and his crew would offer rebates or  - better still - tax breaks tied to income. That way the people who need the help the most could get it and those who can well afford to heat their massive homes can carry right on doing so while footing the bill for their choices.

And actually the problem is not just with giving a disproportionate big break to the wealthy – as the NDP idea would do – or carrying a huge public deficit while helping out the wealthy.  That’s all bad enough just as it is bad enough that the average Republican looking at this scheme would embrace Layton as a discipline of Karl.  

Jack Layton’s tax cut idea is also damned poor environmental policy. Canadians don’t need to be rewarding energy inefficiency or giving people the chance to consume more energy.   An across-the-board tax cut does just that.  It potentially makes the NDP vulnerable on the left from the Greens, but there seems to be a conscious effort in the NDP thinking that they should just look for more votes in places where they can fight Conservatives, like out west or in a couple of ridings in Newfoundland.  That’s pretty much in tune with the NDP position on the gun registry as well.

Now the NDP position isn’t all bad.  They do want to bring back an energy efficiency incentive program.  That’s a great idea and coupled with a targeted tax break scheme, it would be a progressive social policy.

Unfortunately, this isn’t about progressive social policy:  the New Democrats are playing politics like Stephen Harper.  This HST thing is just Connie-style retail politics.

And politically, it is a sensible  - if monumentally cynical - thing to do if you want to get elected.  Jack Harris in St. John’s East will win re-election handily with such an idea.  All the well-heeled people in his district will love his conservative policies while the people on fixed and low incomes will get a bit of cash to make them happy too.  Over in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl, the same thing applies even if there aren’t as many people with giant houses there.

Basically these sorts of Conservative-looking policies might help sagging New Democrat fortunes in a place like St. John’s where, as bizarre as the idea might seem, Conservatives will vote New Democrat if they can’t vote Connie for some reason.

It might work.  Too bad for Jack Layton and the New Democrats there likely won’t be an election for some months yet.  By the time people head to the polls federally, this sort of thing will likely be long forgotten.  But in the meantime it is interesting to see just exactly how much influence Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party have had on Canadian politics.

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Municipal affairs minister passes away after lengthy illness

Municipal affairs minister Diane Whelan died on Sunday after a lengthy battle with cancer.

The Premier issued a statement sometime on Sunday.  There is is no time on the release.

It is with a very heavy heart that I mourn the passing of my cabinet colleague and dear friend, Dianne Whalen; one of the most courageous individuals I have ever known and one of our province’s most devoted champions.

While valiantly battling cancer the strength of her spirit and the conviction behind her words was as passionate and unshakable as ever. Even during her illness, she continued to diligently advance the work of her department and participate fully in Cabinet, always determined to carry on with her responsibilities.

Whelan was hospitalised in late 2009 with an undisclosed illness.  She took a leave of absence from her cabinet duties, later returned to work but again took a leave of absence some time ago.

Whelan’s illness last year came hot on the heels of two high-profile departures from cabinet which prompted a cabinet mini-shuffle.  In July, the Premier appointed newly elected member of the House Paul Davis to serve as “Legislative Assistant” for the department.

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Traffic Drivers, September 27 – October 1

1. 24 French
2. The Politicisation of Public Emergencies
3. Cringeworthy 2
4. Jane Taber – Twit
5. Court docket now online
6. Recovery effort continues
7. Cringeworthy
8. For all the perception problems…
9. Freedom from Information Week:  the colour of invisibility
10. NL only province to post jump in EI claims in July

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Traffic patterns: September 2010

If you weren’t one of the 14,412 people generating 17,698 pageviews at Bond Papers in September, here’s what they were reading:

1. Jane Taber – Twit (the Globe’s gossip columnist)
2. Court docket now online  (the Provincial Court docket)
3. Cruise ends abruptly in St. John’s (Cruise ship problems)
4. Hurricane Igor Emergency Response: TASFU  (Enduring problems in provincial government’s emergency response)
5. Harper/Williams disconnect  (What the PM said DND sent to help with Hurricane Igor versus what the provgov announced)
6. Cruise ship sale and passengers “not even an issue”:  mayor (Doc O’Keefe puts his foot in his mouth…again.)
7. Katrina North:  the picture changes (Public complaints about the provincial government’s hurricane relief efforts)
8. Process stories, or real insiders don’t gab (The foolish election speculation in The Hill Times)
9. Bury my lede at Muskrat Falls (From August, the real news (not good by any means) buried in a recent media report on the Lower Churchill buried)
10. 24 French (The Premier and This hour has 22 minutes)

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Freedom from Information Week: the colour of invisibility

As labradore notes, at least one member of a Reform-based Conservative Party administration likes to use purple files to denote sensitive material to be given special attention as part of an access to information request.

Not surprisingly, another Reform-based Conservative Party in power likes to use purple files to denote sensitive information.  And, as regular readers will recall, that sensitive filing system officially does not exist.

Even though it does.

And the Premier admits it exists, but he refuses to release the information.

Because it officially doesn't exist.

When it comes to public access to government information the public has a legal right to obtain, it seems that purple is the colour of invisibility. Whatever these two Conservative administrations are afraid of, there's no doubt that fear lies at the heart of their obsession with secrecy.

That's why the Premier told reporters that if he had to release information people were looking for he'd "be outta here". Lest new readers get confused at this point or think the requests were intrusive, understand that one of the requests the Premier found unbelievably intrusive was one that asked for all his public speeches as Premier.


One big difference between the two Conservative approaches to secrecy, though is in the role played by political staffers.  In Ottawa, political involvement in the access to information process is considered controversial.

In St. John's, bureaucrats will testify under oath that it is perfectly acceptable for responses to information requests to be dictated by politicians and political staffers. Interestingly enough, while reporters covered that testimony as it it contradicted other claims about political interference, the reality is that the testimony suggested the level of political interference was routine.

But still, there are signs of sanity.  Your humble e-scribbler had a pleasant experience this past week.  One access co-ordinator in one department answered a simple inquiry with a simple answer.  Plus, she did so promptly and professionally.  Compare that to the refusal of three other more senior officials to even think about the same request and the lengthy delay it took to get them to refuse to provide simple information.

That's the difference between a culture of politically-driven secrecy  - call it a purple culture - and one that shows a respect for the law and for the public's right to know. Hats off to a public servant who does an honour to her chosen career.

What a fitting way to mark Right to Know week.

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NL population drops in Q2 #cdnpoli

Newfoundland and Labrador was the only province to experience a population loss in the second quarter of 2010, according to figures released Wednesday by Statistics Canada. The cause is primarily net interprovincial outflows, in other words outmigration. That’s also the first drop since 2008.

While the provincial government issued a news released last quarter trumpeting the gain of a mere 96 people, you are unlikely to see a release like it this month talking about a drop three times the size.

Here’s what the past five years looks like, by quarter.

Now it could be nothing at all but a blip.  Then again, it could be a sign of things to come.  Note that for the last three quarters the rate of growth has dropped dramatically.  That suggests the steam was going out of things and that the Q1 results were the peak of the curve.

You can see that more clearly if you look at this chart:

In less than a year, the province went from gaining 130 people in a quarter to losing 300.

And actually, this could also mean that the North American economy is on solid footing.  The change in migration patterns for Newfoundland and Labrador in Q3 2007 actually heralded the onset of the recession.  A long-term analysis of provincial population suggests that the population grows shortly before major recession.  Those are all people working elsewhere with relatively weak ties to the community who opt to come back to the province to weather the economic storm.  When things pick up, they head off again.

And as much as the province’s finance minister may like to believe otherwise, odds are that is what’s going on again.

Great news, wot?

Well, not really. The longer term demographic problems that come with that aren’t ones the current administration and its unsound financial and economic management are not ready to cope with.   Not by a long shot.

Don’t forget that in this pre-election and pre-leadership period, you can bet the government won’t be willing or able to do much to start adjusting to cope with the harsh reality of the economy and demographics.  In fact, the next 18 months are basically a write-off for serious government decisions to deal with the problem. 

On top of that you can forget the period between the election and whenever the new Premier arrives to replace the Old Man. And if that doesn’t wind up happening happen until a couple of years before the 2015 election you can almost write off dramatic policy shifts until that election is history as well.

Wow.

Not to worry sez you.  There’s oil.

Sure there is.

Unfortunately, production and royalties won’t be able to cope with the demand for added revenue.  There’s not much else going on to take up the slack and for good measure, the current administration plans to use oil money to fuel increases for education and health care and use exactly the same money to build the $14 billion Lower Churchill project.

Here’s lookin’ at you, kid…

…as you leave the province again.

At least we’ll always have Ottawa.

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24 French

Friday was a busy day for the province’s glorious leader.

Helicopter ride with Steve and Fabe out to visit places hit by Igor.

A bit of video fun somewhere in there.

For those who can’t read that, it says “vendredi, le 24 septembre 2010”.

Maybe if Mark Critch from This hour as 22 minutes knew about the helicopter ride long enough in advance, he could have had even more fun with the Premier’s French.

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When the status quo is not an option…

The newly elected premier of New Brunswick is promising to tackle a provincial budget deficit approaching a billion dollars by “holding the line” on taxes and eliminating “wasteful” spending.

Oh yes.

And he’ll balance the budget in four years.

It’s going to be very interesting to see how he manages to sort out New Brunswick’s financial mess, at the same time, promising no radical change.

The New Brunswick Tories have their work cut out for them.

A new Progressive Conservative government led by David Alward will:

• Cancel future tax reductions f or the 1,300 richest New Brunswickers, who have an average income of $450,000, announced by Shawn Graham last year. This move will allow New Brunswickers to keep more than $120 million over the next four years to tackle the deficit and protect front line services, senior care and education for our children.
• Target a two percent reduction in wasteful and unnecessary spending while protecting spending on priority programs in health, education and services to those in need. Under the leadership of a temporary Government Review Office, this action will result in savings of $150 million annually.
• Create a “Taxpayers First” website for people to submit their ideas on where to save money in government to reduce the deficit and where to invest in better programs and services.
• Hold the line on cutting corporate taxes to 10%, still the lowest rate in the country, preserving $25 million in annual funding for government programs.
• Reduce by 50% the small business tax rate during our four-year term.
• Require that the Auditor General produce a special report on the province’s finances 60 days before each fixed election date.
• Propose new laws to start down the road to balanced budgets within four years.
• Increase the frequency of financial reports so that New Brunswickers can judge our performance.
• Propose new rules on how much the provincial government can spend in any one year, including a legislated cap on total spending that can only be exceeded under special circumstances.
• Bring forward legislation requiring government to table a deficit reduction plan with every budget, and that the Auditor General verify the results annually.
• Encourage more collaboration between government departments to promote efficiencies and share common services.

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For all the perception problems…

As Brigadier Tony Stack reminded everyone in an interview with CBC Radio on Tuesday [audio file] , the 1,000 members of the Canadian Forces at work on relief operations in Newfoundland are really just adding to a substantial effort already done by provincial government employees and volunteers.

The Town of Bonavista lifted its state of emergency on Tuesday.  That’s another milestone in what will be a long road to complete recovery.

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Cringeworthy 2

Via Globe gossip columnist Jane Taber, what turns out to be a surprisingly perceptive appraisal of the Old Man’s latest foray into semi-pro television humour:

He also learned how to say a couple of other choice phrases in French: “Miss, miss,” the Premier says, waving his hand impatiently while his seatmate, a little boy, looks quizzically at him. “I’ve got a question. How, how do you say, ‘Quebec is getting away with highway robbery’ in French?”

In case you were wondering, this is a joke. Mr. Williams is a guest on CBC’s comedy show, 22 Minutes, Tuesday night. But it’s not very funny; it’s cringe-worthy.

Good thing the Old Man wasn’t thinking of a leap to federal politics when he finally hangs up the local crown.

Maybe by then Mark will be looking for a replacement.

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Cringeworthy

What better time to issue a news release noting that a whole bunch of volunteers are helping out after a disaster than four days into it and long before the thing is over?

The wording, of course, must have the ring of a rejected greeting card to increase the sincerity of the sentiment behind the release.

Oh yes:  Don’t forget to plug your website and advertising campaign with the slogan that in no way is the subject of guffaws and derision across the province.

Finish with a snappy close that in absolutely no way came out of government-issued phrase generator.  Like “to help ensure that [insert event type here] happens in the most safe and efficient way possible.”

The provincial government agency responsible for the volunteer sector – Dave Denine, minister - would never be so tacky.

Would they?

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The politicisation of public emergencies

CBC commentator Bob Wakeham [CBC Radio audio file observed Monday morning that:

Also last week the emergency measures organization seemed to keep a low profile.  perhaps its employees were doing what they were supposed to be doing, but some of my journalistic friends working this hurricane story told me EMO seemed more than willing to hand over visual and public responsibility to cabinet ministers, to talking heads all of whom one would think know little or nothing about these matters, certainly a lot less than officials with a specific mandate to deal with, as the name implies, emergencies.

Right after saying that, Wakeham noted that there did not seem last week to be a sense of immediacy to the emergency response.

These two elements are connected.

And they tie as well to an observation made later Monday morning by the host of the morning talk show in the province.  Randy Simms wondered if the province’s fire and emergency management agency had a communications plan and any people responsible for carrying it out. Simms likened the situation to a disaster in the United States or the cougar crash.  He wondered where were the daily  - or even more frequent - technical briefings that featured, front and centre, the people actually delivering the emergency service, telling the rest of us what they were doing.

What Simms is talking about is what one expect in any other part of North America. Effective public communications are an integral part of recovery operations. Priority should go to basic information – where to find shelter, contact numbers to report problems, etc. – so that people who need help can get it.

This is a basic communications principle:  give people the information they need.

Regular operational briefings allows the emergency managers to make sure that accurate information on the entire emergency gets to the public using news media.  A typical briefing would include maps showing local situations and the type of problems being dealt with.  People get information.  They can track progress.  As events develop they can gain confidence that things are getting better. They can also better assess their own situation and make sensible decisions about their own situation;  they may need to just hang tough and weather the discomfort.  Or they can seek help.  Either way, information helps people make the right decision and have confidence.

In the modern age, officials should be using websites, Twitter, and Facebook to help push out detailed information. These can also be ways of feeding information into the emergency management room. 

News media bring pictures.  E-mails and twitter posts can give clues to where problems and that will supplement the information coming to the operations centre from health, fire, emergency, roads and other officials who should be present in the command centre.

The competence of the recovery - readily displayed to the public - instills public confidence.

St. John’s housing market feels national slowing trend

From RBC Economics:

Atlantic Canada’s housing market was not immune to the significant slowdown in activity that has swept across the country since spring. In the last few months, housing resales in the region fell back to the lows reached during the late 2008 to early 2009 downturn. The decline was felt across the board, including areas, such as St. John’s, which were on a tear earlier this year. The cooling in demand loosened up market conditions a little – they were very tight at the start of this year – and restrained home price increases.  In turn, this limited the rise in homeownership costs in the region. Depending on the housing type, RBC Housing Affordability Measures moved up between 1.1 and 1.5 percentage points in the second quarter and remain very close to long-term averages. Overall, housing affordability in Atlantic Canada
continues to be quite attractive and signals little in the way of undue
stress at this point.

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NL only province to post jump in EI claims in July

The number of Employment Insurance claimants dropped in every province in Canada in July compared to June except in Newfoundland and Labrador.  The province saw an increase of 2.4% in EI claims in July, matching the increase seen in June from May.

Year over year, the number of claims is down 16.2%.

In June to July 2009, the number of EI claims went up by 6.5% but then dropped by 8.7% the next month. 

Over the past year, the number of claims has dropped each month, except for the past two.  Most months, the drops were modest, ranging from 0.0% to 1.3%.  Except for the July to August 2009 drop of 8.7%, the largest drop was 3.2% from October to November 2009.

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Recovery effort continues #igornl

Via Trudy Lundrigan and Flickr, here are some photos of the impact Hurricane Igor had on Lawn, Newfoundland.

Lawn is currently out of gasoline.  A shipment of gasoline sent by ship to the southern part of the Burin Peninsula didn’t stretch far enough to cover the community.  CBC quotes the mayor of the town saying:

"We're waiting now. We've got no gas here whatsoever," said Mayor Bill Lockyer, before calling the decision that put his community in this position "brainless."

Lockyer said given the road conditions, Lawn residents have the longest drive to the Grand Bank hospital of any Burin town. And the community of almost 800 is home to at least three people who require dialysis treatment, Lockyer said.

The provincial government is using some of the government’s own ferries to move supplies across Placentia Bay to the communities on the southern part of the peninsula.  They are currently isolated by damaged bridges.  While repairs are underway, it is possible they may only be able to handled reduced traffic loads for the first while after they are back in service.

CBC also quotes one resident who is concerned about the current state of affairs:

"We haven't seen any help at all," [Jenny] Tarrant said.

Tarrant said apart from what she can find online, she's not hearing any plans for relief. She said until Lawn residents get some answers about when aid is coming, concern will continue to spread.

Assessment of roads continues but the widespread nature of the damage continues to hamper recovery efforts.  Canadian Forces engineers decided to postpone bridge installations on the Bonavista Peninsula Sunday pending an improvement in road conditions.  The existing state of roads prevents heavy trucks from moving equipment into position.

All areas of the province now have electricity.  Newfoundland Power crews completed the the job of reconnecting lines over the weekend and are now focused on dealing with individual homes and small clusters that have lost power due to tree damage to specific sections of the grid.

A map released by the Government of Canada over the weekend gives some indication of the scope of the problem facing recovery teams. Towns marked in purple have declared states of emergency.  those in red have food shortages.  The map is current as of 1130 hours local time, Saturday 25 Sep 2010.

While roads damage is keeping some communities isolated, recovery teams have airlifted fuel into a number of towns and villages.

 

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Igor emergency and donation info #igornl

Via Rick Martin, an up-to-date pile of information related to Hurricane Igor emergency response and donations.

If you need contact info or want to assist by donations, this is the place to visit first.

Rick Martin’s Igor* Info

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* Freudian slip correction

Comprehensive #igornl coverage

@cbcnl’s website gives the most comprehensive collection of Hurricane Igor coverage out there.

You’ll also find a decent site at The Telegram, @stjohnstelegram on Twitter. Some stunning photos on their story pages.  Hopefully they’ll collect them together in a special space.  The shots and the shooters deserve that recognition.

• Read further, Twillick Update:  There are three photo slide shows on the Telly site.  Just scroll down to find them.
• There is also a great collection of photos on the Packet website.  That’s the weekly in Clarenville.
• The Southern Gazette is the weekly on the Burin peninsula, another area severely affected by Igor.

NTV News doesn’t have a separate Igor space but their website contains all their broadcast stories. Ditto VOCM, the largest private radio broadcaster in the province.

 

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Traffic Drivers, September 20-24, 2010

1. Jane Taber – Twit
2. Hurricane Igor:  Emergency Response TASFU
3. Important Igor Emergency Information. Not Really.
4. Katrina North:  the picture changes
5. Economics as ideology or, The Other Dismal Science
6. Full of sound and fury
7. Ok Go’s latest video – White Knuckles
8. Labour force indicators raise questions about economic health and competitiveness
9. Court docket now online
10. A campaign of pork and entitlement (reprint)

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Canadian Forces backgrounders: #igornl

Update: 26 Sep 10:  Third ship is actually HMCS Montreal, another FFH, not HMCS Moncton as earlier indicated.

Elements of 4 ESR are involved in bridge construction and supplying potable water to communities where fresh water is unavailable, according to media reports. in addition to army water purification capability, the three FFHs have the capacity to produce drinking water.

HMC ships Fredericton and Montreal arrived from Halifax.  HMCS St. John’s at St. John’s during and immediately after IGOR.  The week before the ship had carried the Lieutenant-Governor on his annual tour to remote coastal communities.

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Original Post (24 Sep 10):

For those who are interested, here are some links to background information on the units and equipment involved in the Canadian Forces’ disaster relief operation in Newfoundland:

• HMCS St. John’s and HMCS Fredericton are Halifax class frigates.
• HMCS Moncton is a Kingston class coastal defence vessel.
• You can also find some good information on these ships and on the Sea King helicopters at the navy website.
• The CH-124 Sea Kings are part of two helicopter detachments (one each on Fredericton and St. John’s from 423 Maritime Helicopter Squadron at 12 Wing, Shearwater.
• 4 Engineer Support Regiment is an engineer regiment of the Canadian army:

The Regiment's primary operational task is the provision of sustainment engineering such as water supply, route maintenance and construction, vertical construction and the provision of utilities. The Regiment is also capable of performing traditional engineer tasks in the following areas: mobility and survivability.

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Harper/Williams disconnect #igornl

According to the Prime MInister, engineers from 4 Engineer Support Regiment in Gagetown are on their way to Newfoundland to assist in disaster relief.

As well, two or three ships – HMCS Fredericton, HMCS St. John’s and maybe HMCS Moncton – and helicopters on Fredericton and St. John’s are available for hurricane relief as well.

News media are reporting that. Here’s a Telegram story complete with a picture of Fredtown offshore Grand Bank.

Seems no one told the provincial government which delayed a newser Friday afternoon by a whole hour after the Prime Minister left town.

In addition, the Provincial Government has requested from the Government of Canada the provision of support from the Department of National Defense. [sic] The specific support being requested consists of Sea King helicopters and the ship-based naval support necessary to maintain operation of these helicopters, which have night flying and heavy lifting capabilities.

That release seems like the provincial government specifically wanted to limit the DND help available by asking only for helicopters.  And for the record, the helicopters don’t actually need ships.  The ships just happen to bring other capabilities with them, like water-purification units, medical facilities and other essential services needed during disaster relief operations.

Either the person who wrote that bit of the news release simply didn’t know what was going on or he or she wanted to minimise the scope of the help the provincial government needed.

Still no word on whether the engineers are coming or why the provincial government didn’t request help earlier.  Given the magnitude of the disaster it seems strange the provincial government would hesitate to take advantage of the considerable resources available even through the local reserve forces of the navy, army and air force.