NDP avoids straight answer on Muskrat Falls #nlpoli

You can tell if a provincial opposition party politician supports Kathy Dunderdale’s Muskrat Falls plan by how many words it takes to explain his or her position.

New Democratic Party leader Lorraine Michael proved the point on Wednesday with a news release posted to NDP website and a statement issued to the media but not posted on the website that repeats the release’s content in slightly different words.

The total word count?  More than 550.

Read it all, though, and you still won’t have a clear answer whether or not her party supports Kathy Dunderdale’s plan to hike electricity rates in the province, double the public debt and ship discount electricity to Nova Scotia at the expense of taxpayers in this province.

The news release claims it is going to give Michael’s position on Muskrat Falls. 

But it doesn’t.

Instead, Michael launches into a claim that the provincial government and Nalcor haven’t told the public how the company has spent $348 million the provincial government transferred to the company in the current fiscal year.

Then-Opposition Leader Yvonne Jones questioned the same transfer, incidentally back when provincial finance minister Tom Marshall introduced the budget in April.

But unlike Lorraine Michael, Yvonne Jones wasn’t concerned at the time whether or not the money was spent properly on Muskrat Falls.  Jones thought the money could be better spent on other things.

Still, even if Nalcor did tells Michael exactly how it spent the $348 million, the people of the province won’t be any closer to knowing whether or not Michael really supports Kathy Dunderdale’s Muskrat Falls plan but is afraid to admit it publicly.

What’s really cute about Michael’s claims about transparency and accountability is that she worked with the provincial government in 2008 to pass amendments to the energy corporation’s governing statute that frustrated genuine public accountability. The Liberals did the same thing.

At the time, Michael was generally satisfied if Nalcor filed reports in the House of Assembly. Michael’s comments on one amendment are typical:

This amendment, I think, does assure the thing that is at the basis of our responsibility, that the public of this Province will be informed of what is going on through the usual process which is the tabling of the information here in the House of Assembly. That is how the public learns anything that has to do with the Crown, through tabling here in the House of Assembly. We now assure that our accountability to the public is assured. We, I think, are showing that we believe in the transparency, openness and accountability that we say we stand for by now having this amendment.

There’s no indication Nalcor failed to abide by the legislation Michael endorsed in 2008, incidentally so it is more than a wee bit hypocritical for Michael to be taking pot shots at an “accountability” regime she helped create..

Throughout the whole release and statement, Michael never does give her position on Muskrat Falls.  Instead, she repeats the general party policy that supports “any development that is economically viable, environmentally sustainable and beneficial for the people of the province…”.

Kathy Dunderdale will tell you that Muskrat Falls meets every one of those criteria.

So far Lorraine Michael hasn’t shown any sign she’d disagree.

Just to give you a sense of the NDP position, take this Twitter exchange about the NDP position. 

St. John’s East NDP candidate George Murphy followed his leader and avoided a simple answer to the simple question:

Question: @GeorgeMurphyNDP @dalegkirby So you support it, George?

edhollett

Answer:  @edhollett @dalegkirby If it's economically viable...wouldn't you?

GeorgeMurphyNDP

Q:  @GeorgeMurphyNDP @dalegkirby Do you support the deal, yes or no?

edhollett

A:  @edhollett @dalegkirby Ed..I can't make it any simpler than that...I just said 'if it's economically viable"...

GeorgeMurphyNDP

Q:  @GeorgeMurphyNDP @dalegkirby You say yes you support the deal or no you don't. Simple answer.

edhollett

A:  @edhollett @dalegkirby Jees Ed...I can't be any clearer than what I said. If it's economically viable. Wouldn't you?

GeorgeMurphyNDP

Followed almost immediately after by:

C'mon Ed..If it was an economically viable project, would you support it? Yes or no. Simple answer...

Q:  @GeorgeMurphyNDP @dalegkirby The more you dodge, the worse it looks, George. Is the problem that you don't have enough info to assess viability?

edhollett

George didn’t reply.

The problem for the NDP is that Muskrat Falls is a serious wedge issue that could cause major problems within the party itself.

On the one hand, Michael is already on record supporting the loan guarantee through her appearance at Jack Layton’s last national campaign appearance in St. John’s. 

Michael also knows that the NDP government of Nova Scotia backs the deal as does the national NDP.  Ultimately, Nova Scotia Premier Darrell Dexter carries a lot more weight in Ottawa with the national NDP than Lorraine does.

On the other hand, many of the NDP’s current and potential supporters in Newfoundland and Labrador are leery of Kathy Dunderdale’s plan for the public debt and their electricity rates. They are also pissed at the idea Nova Scotians will get cheap electricity paid for by taxpayers in this province.

Openly endorsing the deal could cost Michael and the NDP a great many votes especially among disaffected Tory voters in metro St. John’s who could be looking for a safe place to vote against the Muskrat deal.

They won’t find a safe anti-Muskrat haven in the NDP.

Put it all together and you have a news release that – like candidate George Murphy – doesn’t give a simple answer to a simple question.

Lorraine Michael tries to sound critical of the provincial government but, behind closed doors and the backs of hands in whispered conversations, the NDP is backing Dunderdale to the hilt.

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The missing NDP statement from 2011.

Michael demands Muskrat Falls transparency, proposes Nalcor conservation division

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Newfoundland and Labrador New Democratic Party leader Lorraine Michael (MHA, Signal Hill-Qidi Vidi) today released a statement outlining her party's stand on the Muskrat Falls development. She also called on Nalcor to create a separate energy body mandated to help Newfoundland and Labrador families save money through programs that maximize conservation of energy resources.

The NDP supports any development that is economically viable, environmentally sustainable and beneficial for the people of the province, Michael said. However, the invisibility cloak that has been draped over the project by Nalcor and the Dunderdale Conservatives makes it impossible to assess how responsibly they are spending taxpayers' money.

"Last Friday's media event only served to reinforce the grave concerns we have about the way this important development is proceeding. Now the Dunderdale Conservatives are not immediately releasing the environmental assessment," Michael said. "The people of this province have already spent $348 million this fiscal year alone on Muskrat Falls – that is $700 from each man, woman and child who lives here. That investment should buy us some transparency.

"If we had spent the $348 million directly through the Department of Natural Resources, for example, the people of Newfoundland and Labrador would have access to the budgetary process, with line items to show exactly where the money has gone.

"As it stands, with Muskrat Falls being handled through a Crown Corporation created by this government, we are supposed to blindly accept government assurances that they are spending responsibly. I'm sorry, but the people of Newfoundland and Labrador deserve more than the 'Trust us' they are getting from the Dunderdale Conservatives."

The NDP is also calling for the creation of a body within Nalcor dedicated to energy conservation.

"Our approach to our valuable energy resources can not be simply to develop them and use them up," said Michael. "We need practical programs that will help Newfoundland and Labrador families save money while at the same time conserving our resources. The best place for this to be done is within the crown corporation mandated to oversee energy usage.

"Every resident of Newfoundland and Labrador should be getting the maximum possible for their household energy spending. And every resident of this province should be asking the government, 'What am I getting for my seven hundred dollars?'"

Random Post in Latin: ALF edition

Sic transit gloria mundi.

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A monstrous abuse continues #nlpoli

While there will be a general election in Newfoundland and Labrador this fall, there isn’t one at the moment.

And yet, the province’s chief electoral office is proudly encouraging people to cast a special ballot if they need to do so. 

People who don’t live in the province might find this very odd but such is the reality  in the undemocratic former republic of Dannystan.  Changes to the province’s electoral laws made before the 2007 general election created a situation in which people can vote in an election that doesn’t exist. You can be your own electoral grand-pa, as it were.

Now some of us have been criticising this monstrous abuse of democracy since it began. But in the current election people can get a very good sense of how the special ballot provisions of the Williams Election Act rob voters of their right to choice.

Under the Act, a person can request a special ballot and vote for the candidate or party of ones choice any time up to four weeks before a writ is issued for an election.

Sounds good so far.

One small problem.

What is a candidate?

Well, under the Act, a candidate is a person nominated to be a candidate under the rules laid out in the Act. One of those rules is that the person must be nominated by:

by filing the nomination paper with the returning officer between the date of the proclamation commencing the election and the close of nominations.

Date of the proclamation… that’s what people mean by dropping the writ.

And that won’t happen for some three or four weeks yet, just as the special ballot section of the legislation already acknowledges.

So without a writ, there can be no nominations and without nominations  there can’t be any candidates.

But one can vote for a political party.

Okay.

That might work.

Except for people like John Baird. He’s the fellow who had planned to run for the Liberals in the upcoming election but who decided to run as an independent candidate instead. 

“Independent” is not a political party.

Nor is “non-aligned” which is the word that will appear on the ballot next to Baird’s name at some point in the future.

For now, any people who needed a special ballot in Terra Nova district and wanted to vote for John Baird won’t have that opportunity.

If the election turns out to be close, as it sometimes is, those few ballots John Baird won’t get - and all the affiliated, party-approved candidates  can get - could make all the difference in the world.

Special balloting makes a mockery of democracy.

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The Power of Confusion: The Three Amigos Update #nlpoli

Premier Kathy Dunderdale doesn’t understand the criticism of the federal government’s recent announcement of a loan guarantee for the Muskrat Falls megadebt project

Provincial NDP leader Lorraine Michael, for one, has been crapping on the announcement, saying that it isn’t a loan guarantee at all but “an agreement to agree”.

Check that link and you’ll also find new Liberal leader Kevin Aylward quoted by theindependent.ca saying:

This is not a legally binding offer and the Harper government can still back out of it,” Aylward said in a statement. “It’s no wonder Premier Kathy Dunderdale didn’t show up for the press conference.”

Kathy Dunderdale is right to wonder why Michael and Aylward are criticising the loan guarantee.

After all both Aylward and Michael support development of the Muskrat falls project as Dunderdale is proposing.  All three want to saddle the provincial taxpayers with guaranteed high electricity rates and a huge increase in the public debt.

Plus, they all agree it is a good idea to send discount electricity into Nova Scotia and anywhere else people want it, all thanks to the people of Newfoundland and Labrador.

You can tell the two other party leaders back the deal if for no other reason than because they do not criticise it.

Nope.

Their comments on this federal announcement is a criticism of Dunderdale for not being farther along with the negotiations (Michael) and for not nailing Harper down on the guarantee. (Aylward)

Kathy didn’t hold Steve’s feet to the fire, or words to that effect.

Just to test this out, try this:  if you get the chance to speak with Lorraine and/or Kevin ask them whether or not they will kill this deal.

Yes or no.

The more words they have to use to explain their position – without first saying yes or no – is a sign of how strongly they want to support this deal.  The reason they can’t be open in the love for Muskrat is because they think their are votes to be had by appearing to oppose the deal.

Will you kill the deal? 

Yes or no?

Try it.

You might be quite surprised at the replies.

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Subsidizing subsidized industry…somewhere else

“Curiouser and curiouser”, cried Alice, so overcome by the photograph that she momentarily forgot how to speak English properly.

“Is it some sort of uniform?”

“Might well be,”  her companion said, “since they are all members of the Muskrat Club.”

“And who is that man there on the end,” asked Alice.  “The fellow doesn’t seem to belong.”

Hmmm.

Let us look at the provincial government’s official news release and see.

“Book ends!” Alice’s companion exclaimed.  “The Governor of Rhode Island on the left standing next to the Blue Queen and on the right, the man who runs Rhode Island’s  largest energy consumer.”

A plastics company.

Seems the Rhode Island state legislature plans to give the company a million dollars to see if it will grow larger.

“The money was going to be a loan but now it is a non-repayable contribution,”  explained Alice’s companion.

“A gift, then,” said Alice, unhelpfully.

“A non-repayable contribution,” her companion corrected.  “There’s a difference.”

“Where?” asked Alice, looking about. “I don’t like differences.  No two are ever the same. That’s why they are called differences, don’t you know.”

Her companion went back to his reading.

The state government is also helping Toray install a new solar power system to help power the plant.

“And so he talked to the Blue Queen,” said Alice, as she checked under the chesterfield for the difference, “who is an expert is giving gifts…”.

Her companion coughed.

“alright then, non-repayable contributions,” continued Alice, pronouncing the words very carefully.

At once, Alice gave up looking but still seemed quite satisfied that she had, at last, got the hang of the contributions.

After a long pause, Alice looked at her companion.  “Rhode Island?  Isn’t that the place where the Blue Queen once tried to sell electricity before?”

“Yes,”  her companion replied. “But the electricity was too expensive for them to buy. So now the Blue Queen knows that if she sells power to them she will have to give it to them for less than it cost her to make it.”

“What a very odd idea,” said Alice.

“And much less than the people who own the electricity will have to pay for it.”

“Odder still,” exclaimed Alice.

She made a face and rubbed her chin as if in thought.

“I suppose the Blue Queen does not really know where she is going, “ said Alice after a while.

“When you do not know where you are going, you might think that any Rhode will get you there.”

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The secret of life, comedy, and politics

Timing.

The ever watchful labradore notes that after Danny Williams mucked around with the appointments for the Order of Newfoundland and Labrador, they have taken place in November.

No one would be surprised to find out that this is a month when the government’s official pollster is in the field.

In Election Year 2011, the appointments announcement arrived in August.

Not surprisingly, the government pollster is in the field at the moment as well.

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Venus in Furs: Muskrat Falls edition

There’s a kind of political writing that makes you squirm.

On the face of it, and in isolation, a sentence can be perfectly correct.  The problem comes when the politician, political staffer or bureaucrat puts that perfectly correct statement in another context where it’s purpose is to make other stuff that isn’t so correct seem better.

Think of it as the reverse of guilt by association.

The good sentence makes the bullshit seem better than it actually is.

You can find an excellent example of this sort of writing in a statement Kathy Dunderdale issued on Monday about a sooper sekrit visit by two New England governors this past weekend to tour the Churchill Falls hydro plant.

It was sooper sekrit because Kathy didn’t bother to issue any sort of notice that the two governors would be dropping by.

That way no one could ask them any pesky questions.

Kath just got to send out a bullshit statement telling us what these two fellows may well have thought.

In any event, here’s the sentence:

Creating revenue from our development of the Lower Churchill with the sale of excess power, and doing so in a way that maximizes benefits to the people of Newfoundland and Labrador, is an exciting prospect.

As sentences go, this is one that not even its mother could love.

It’s passive, for starters.  We don’t know who will find that creating revenue is exciting.

Then there’s the phrase “creating revenue”.  Blech!  Truly horrid.  “Creating revenue” sounds a bit like it means making a profit when it could be as simple as bringing in some cash even if it is a lot less than one needs to pay the bills.

Then consider this revenue will come “with” the sale of power.  Not through the sale, as in,  getting cash as a result of selling power, but “with”:  as in, creating revenue goes alongside of and may not be connected to the power sale.  Don;t ask how.  this is just looking at the words.

Once you get beyond that, there’s that little subordinate clause stuffed in the middle:  “and doing so in a way that maximizes benefits to the people of Newfoundland and Labrador”.

What exactly does it mean?

Whatever it means, though, the sentence seems to be saying that selling power from the Lower Churchill would be exciting.

Not is.

Not will.

But would be.

It’s a prospect, after all and prospects are things that are indefinite.  Uncertain.  Conditional.

And that certainly is true:  selling power from the Lower Churchill would be exciting. People have dreamt about it for decades in this province.

The only problem is that any sale of Muskrat Falls power outside the province using Kathy Dunderdale’s scheme will be a gigantic money loser.

Electricity is forecast to be so cheap  - outside newfoundland and Labrador only - that the incredibly expensive stuff from Muskrat Falls will only flow outside the province’s borders if the taxpayers of the province carry the whole cost and a handsome profit for the two companies involved.

Yes, selling power like that would be exciting, if only in a Marquis de Sade kind of way. 

Masochists everywhere would sign up for that in an instant. If you tossed discount video of flogging in on top of the pillaging of household bank accounts needed to prop up the little scam, you could probably make more money from the Internet porn rights than you would from selling Muskrat Falls power to New England.

But anyway, the truth of the sentence is still there – somewhere – and it appears in the government’s news release in order to make the rest seem better.

How can you be sure?

Because the last sentence in the release piles on the raft of reasons why Muskrat Falls must go ahead:

But it only complements the reason why we are developing Muskrat Falls – to meet our own electricity needs in the most cost-effective manner and to stabilize rates over the long term. Job creation, attraction of industry, and the creation of significant income for business, not to mention the environmental benefits, make this development the right one for our province and one that the rest of the country and North America has its eye on.

Yes, folks.  The only thing Muskrat won’t do is cure cancer.

Give it time, though.

It wouldn’t surprise your humble e-scribbler if a Nalcor release popped up one day promising amazing health benefits from Muskrat.  it’s about the only thing, the megadebt project won’t do.

After all, as you should know by now, people who push megaprojects over-estimate the benefits and under-estimate the costs.

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Layton’s Legacy

As far as Jack Layton’s political legacy goes, Shakespeare got it wrong.

The good he did will not be interred with his bones.

Jack Layton was a man of good will who sought to do good in politics.  You’ll hear lots of that in the days ahead from all sorts of people.

There’s more to those comments, though, than the easy cynicism that even the most miserable bastard who ever lived will be borne to his grave by mourners hailing him as the greatest saint who ever lived.

For Jack Layton, the praise is sincere.

The loss is real.

The grief is genuine.

The pain, palpable and deeply so.

Jack Layton was a reminder that men and women of good will can make a difference in politics, for all the right reasons. 

The good that Jack Layton did will not go into the grave with him so long as those of us who remain act with that in mind.

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On the Summer Reading List

The Oprah Winfrey Book Club this ain’t, but for those who might be hunting around for something to read, consider these books your humble e-scribbler picked up recently:

• How to write a sentence and how to read one by Stanley Fish.  This may be a New York Times bestseller but this is a book aimed at writers and fans of the art of writing.

 

 

 

• Split-second persuasion by Kevin Dutton.  An accessible compilation of recent ideas and theories about how people form opinions and how others influence them.

 

 

 

 

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Misleading the House: recall the whole recall power story

Why would Nalcor mislead the people of Newfoundland and Labrador, asks finance minister Tom Marshall with all the seriousness he can muster.

Yes folks, the fellow with one of the worst cases of pinocchiosis politica ever seen in this province wonders how people at a Crown corporation who hang out regularly with politicians some of who are infected with P. politica could catch the same disease.

Let’s leave the question of motivation out for a second and look at whether or not Nalcor and the provincial government are misleading people about Muskrat Falls.

The answer is undeniable:  yes, they are.

Take recall power as a classic example.

The province will need more electricity within the next decade, according to Nalcor.  For the sake of this post, let us assume that this is correct.

And what’s more, let’s go with the idea that the extra electricity is measure on the scale of several hundred megawatts.

Where to get that extra juice?

Muskrat Falls, says Nalcor.  Gigantic project, but we have to do it because the power is needed and it will be cheaper in the long run.

Again, for the sake of this post, let us allow all those things.

Recall power, sez someone on a morning open line show.  Bring power back from Churchill Falls.

Not enough.

Only 300 megawatts, total.  Some is already sold and used in western Labrador and the rest just isn’t enough to meet the need.  One of Nalcor’s communications people even sends the radio show host and e-mail making the point.

While the information is correct, it leaves out a whole bunch of other stuff.

And that’s what makes Nalcor’s version of recall power grossly misleading.

Under the law that is supposed to ensure the people of the province get the electricity they need at the lowest possible price, the public utilities board could recall as much electricity from Churchill Falls as the people in the province need.

Churchill Falls (Labrador) Corporation – the people who make the power – and Hydro-Quebec – the people who buy it – would get paid for their lost power.  They’d get compensation.  

We don’t know at this point how much the compensation would be but the cost would be not even half what Muskrat Halls power will cost people in this province.

Heck, your humble e-scribbler would lay odds it would not even be  even ten percent of what the Muskrat falls power is going to cost local taxpayers.

All the provincial government would have to do to make that happen is tax take back an exemption Nalcor got from the provincial government while Beaton Tulk was interim Premier.  The exemption makes sure the PUB can’t control electricity in the province.  It also ensures Nalcor doesn’t have to deliver power at the lowest cost to consumers, if the company doesn’t want to do that.

All that Nalcor would have to do is run a line from Churchill Falls to Soldiers Pond. And gee, isn’t that line what they already have planned and costed at less than $2.0 billion.

Poof.

Job done.

Total cost:  not even half of the current estimate for Muskrat Falls and all the transmission lines.

No question:  Nalcor is misleading the people of the province about recall power.

But why would they do it, asks the finance minister?

Well, only the gang at Nalcor can say for sure, but let’s just recall what Fortis boss Stan Marshall said once about the problem with Crown corporations like Nalcor and expensive projects:

“Simply when things go wrong we’d like to be able to rectify them,” he told reporters.

“If you’re going to go in with a partner you’ve got to know that partner very, very well, have a lot of commonality.

“Governments … their agenda can be very, very  different than a private enterprise.”

Government’s agenda can be different from that of private enterprise.

In other words,  Crown corporations might do things for political reasons instead of sound business reasons. Muskrat Falls gave Danny Williams the political cover he needed to quit politics.  Now Muskrat Falls is the Tory party’s election platform.

Nalcor couldn’t disown this project even if they wanted to.

It’s politics.

So they have to tell only half a story, like the misleading story they tell on recall power.

Or, for that matter, like the story Tom Marshall tells about the public debt.

If Tom Marshall wants to know why Nalcor misleads people, he need only look in the mirror.

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Churn baby churn

Kathy Dunderdale is setting a record for changes in the senior public service.

Dunderdale upped her score last week with a single announcement that made seven changes at the executive director and to assistant deputy minister levels. That brings her total since taking office to 16 announcements involving 26 positions.

By comparison, in 2009 and 2010 Danny Williams made changes to 28 positions in the senior public service each year.

Frequent changes to senior management have been linked to problems in administration. They might explain the  delays and massive cost overruns the current administration has been experiencing since 2003.

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Twitter Psychology Insight

Via the always insightful Neville Hobson, came a link to a wonder little diagram that summarises the results o a recent survey of Twitter users.

You can find Neville’s post at the bizarrely named nevillehobson.com.

And you can find the original at whitefireseo.com.

For those who are tweeting during the election campaign, see if any of these insights match up to what you see in real life. 

Don’t just look for the positives, that is the people who are obviously applying these ideas even if they never heard of them before.

Look at the people who might be running against the tide and judge their performance.  Are they succeeding or failing?

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Playing in Traffic, August 15 to 19, 2011

There will be some other big news next week, but for now, here’s what SRBP readers wanted this past week:

1. Sun TV/Fix News wannabe?  VOCM hits new low.  (The story disappeared the next day)
2. Westcott packs it in.
3. Bloc NDP MP backs Tory Dunderdale
4. Separated at birth:  the eyes have it edition
5. No man is an island:  Mount Pearl edition  (Kent changed his website within two days)
6. A cause for grave concern
7. Feds to announce MOU on loan guarantee
8. Three parties, two leaders, one policy, no sense
9. Then again…election news mine edition
10. Great Gambols with Public Money:  Sprung Cukes 4

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No Kathy for Kent

Danny’s gone from Steve Kent’s website.

In fact, the website that hadn’t been updated since 2007 is gone entirely, replaced with a new one.

So hasty was the old one hauled down – after it featured prominently here – that there’s even a note apologising for any technical glitches.

Conspicuously absent from it is any reference to the Old Man’s replacement, Kathy Dunderdale.

The old one proudly proclaimed Steve to be a Dapper Dan man, right there in the upper left hand corner where eyes always go on an English language website.

First thing you see on the Old Site? 

The Old Man!

First thing you see now?

Not Kathy.

Where once you had Steve Kent, proud, strong and determined member of Danny Williams’ team. now you’ve just got this bland, generic website for the member of the House of Assembly for Mount Pearl North.

Same URL.

Different content.

Now when asked Steve might say the site is paid for by the taxpayers out of public funds so it can’t bear a partisan label.  The advertising policy, dontchya know, old chap.

Watch out for the early onset pinocchiosis there if he tries that excuse.

Of course, if that old site was paid for by you and me, then it was clearly violating the policy. Something would have to be done to make sure Steve wasn’t breaking the rules.

If it’s out of Steve’s own pocket, then this would be even weirder than it already is, but that’s another issue.

Anyway…

On the old version of the site, all Steve would have to do in order to stay within the guidelines is take off the party logo and delete any references to it in the text.

On the new version of the site - stevekent.ca  - you could have the same sort of thing. But there isn’t anything like it.

Nothing about Steve’s boss in his capacity as parliamentary secretary. 

That’s a government job, not a House one or a party one.

And his boss is the Premier. Steve could mention her – just like he mentioned Premier Dan – and he’d still fit the policy barring partisan advertising.

So why doesn’t Steve-o have his boss’ picture and tons of information about the government on his website?

Really good question.

Aside from one side-on shot at some event or other, Kathy Dunderdale is a big black hole on Steve Kent’s website.

Talk about negative space.  Kathy’s absence just screams at you.

Steve could even have links to government news releases and a reference to the department he works for.

But there’s nada.

Stay tuned, gang. 

Kent’s website could duck into a phone booth and change again into Super-Tory any second now.

Stranger things have happened.

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The Muskrat Falls Loan Guarantee Memorandum of Agreement

From the NRCAN website:

In its June 3, 2011 Speech from the Throne the federal Government expressed its commitment to support the lower Churchill River hydroelectricity projects, as an important action to support our broader objective to develop Canada’s extraordinary resource wealth in a way that protects the environment.

The Government of Canada confirms the projects collectively have national and regional significance, economic and financial merit, and will significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The Government of Canada will provide or purchase a loan guarantee for the lower Churchill River hydroelectricity projects. The loan guarantee will be payable upon the default of the borrower should such a default occur. The projects include the following:

• Muskrat Falls hydroelectric generation facility
• Labrador Transmission Assets
• Labrador-Island Link
• Maritime Link

If the Government of Canada chooses to purchase rather than provide the loan guarantee it undertakes that the economic value to the projects will be equivalent.

The term of the guarantee will extend to both the construction and post-construction periods.

The guarantee for the projects will apply to the aggregate construction debt and the initial long term debt arranged with lenders at financial close for each project, based on commercially reasonable capital structures arranged by Nalcor and Emera.

There will be no fees payable by Nalcor, Emera or the Governments of Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia for the loan guarantee.

The Government of Canada will enter into a term sheet with Nalcor Energy and Emera structured in a form to reflect the contents of this Memorandum of Agreement as well as further definition required to support engagement with capital markets.

The federal government is retaining financial advisors to complete due diligence analysis. The purpose of due diligence is to assist the Government of Canada in the implementation of this Memorandum of Agreement.

In the context of this Memorandum of Agreement the Government of Canada, Nalcor and Emera are seeking to assess and minimize risks associated with the projects.

A committee will be established that includes  representatives from Nalcor, Emera, the Government of Canada, the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador and the Government of Nova Scotia to facilitate information sharing and complete the matters outlined herein.

The Parties agree that time shall be of the essence in this agreement and will be bound by this agreement including the following timelines, unless otherwise extended by mutual agreement: on or before August 31, 2011 – announcement of the terms of this agreement; on or before November 30, 2011 or 8 weeks following access by the Government of Canada to the projects’ data room and detailed analyses and representations by credit rating agencies – agreement on term sheet for engagement with capital markets; and on or before financial close – completion of formal agreements for provision of the loan guarantee.

This Memorandum of Agreement takes effect on August _____, 2011 In WITNESS WHEREOF, the Parties have executed this Memorandum of Agreement

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Slide a sheet of paper: the spend ‘em if ya got ‘em edition

Earlier this week, finance minister Tom Marshall announced a second increase in the estimate for offshore oil production for 2011 and with it an increase in provincial government revenues.

Marshall claims the money will go to paying down the public debt.

It won’t.

Every time Tom Marshall says he’s paid down the debt, his nose grows. Marshall has a case of pinocchiosis that defies medical science.

If his case of pinocchiosis politica swelled something other than his nose every time he bullshitted about paying down the debt,  Tom could do porno as if he was Johnny Wad and Ron Jeremy and Long Dong Silver combined.

The cash will either:

1. go in the bank and be held in the form of short-term investments that will only appear to lower the debt; or
2. cover the gigantic deficit Tommy  - or whoever is fin min - will face next year as a result of the Tories persistent unsound, unsustainable financial management.

Speaking of spending, that’s exactly what the local chapter of the New Democratic party wants to do with the windfall cash.

"This money, I think, needs to be seen as revenue that has come early, and we [should] keep it until we look at how we need to spend our money in 2012/2013," Michael told CBC News.

You will not be able to slide a sheet of paper between the political parties in this election.  They will all have the same policy, especially hen it comes to spending.

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Offshore board responds to helicopter inquiry report

From the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board [paragraphing altered for readability; original here]:

The Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (C-NLOPB) today responded to the final report of the Offshore Helicopter Safety Inquiry  entitled "Report and Recommendations arising from the Transportation Safety Board's Report".

The submission of this report signals the completion of the inquiry. The C-NLOPB wishes to extend its gratitude to Commissioner Robert Wells, Inquiry counsel and staff, parties with standing, families of the victims [of the Cougar 491 crash]  and to all others, most notably, Robert Decker, who contributed to the Inquiry and, in doing so, to improvements in offshore helicopter safety.

The report contains four recommendations.

Recommendation 1 is directed at the C-NLOPB and the remaining three are directed at Transport Canada
or Governments. The Board's response to each  recommendation is as follows:

Recommendation 1 - Alert Service Bulletins

We have accepted this Recommendation and have directed the Operators to develop a plan for compliance in conjunction with work they are already doing in response to Phase I Recommendation 7, dealing with Airworthiness Directives. We will ask the Phase I Implementation Team to provide oversight of the Operators' work.

Recommendation 2 - Helicopter Passenger Suit

We have referred this Recommendation to Transport Canada and the Canadian General Standards Board for consideration as part of their ongoing work to create a  new Helicopter Passenger Transportation Suit standard. There is a broadly-based committee engaged in this work,  including C-NLOPB, CNSOPB, Operators and suit manufacturers.

Recommendation 3 - TSB Recommendations

We have passed this Recommendation along to Transport Canada.

The C-NLOPB has already been engaged in a Focus Group to assist Transport Canada in their plans to respond to Recommendations in the Phase I and Phase II report. 

We have requested that the Operators determine what plans Cougar and Sikorsky have for retro-fitting the Cougar fleet.

Also, we have asked our Aviation Advisor to review with Transport Canada any plans for removal of the "extremely remote" provision. He will also discuss with them any plans to review the adequacy of the 30-minute run-dry requirement.

Recommendation 4 - Separate Regulator

We have forwarded this Recommendation to both Governments for their consideration. Recommendation 29 (b) in the Phase I report recommended that consideration be given to the creation of a separate and autonomous safety division within the C-NLOPB.

The C-NLOPB has acted on this recommendation by separating the safety and operations functions into two separate departments. The Operations Department will be headed by Mr. Howard Pike and the Safety Department will be headed by Mr. Dan Chicoyne.

Mr. Chicoyne was recently hired by the Board and he will take on the responsibility of Chief Safety Officer. He has extensive experience in safety and was the Chief Accident Investigator for the Canadian Forces, as well as the Director of Flight Safety for the Canadian Forces.

Mr. Chicoyne is also a former fixed wing and helicopter pilot in the Canadian Armed Forces and held the rank of Colonel.

While the C-NLOPB asked Commissioner Wells to review the TSB report, it also conducted its own review.

The Board's review did not identify any deficiencies or gaps in the current implementation plan. 

The Board is now satisfied that the implementation strategy developed in response to Phase I, with the change recommended by Commissioner Wells, fully encompasses all elements of the TSB report that needed to be addressed by the C-NLOPB.

Media Contact:
Sean Kelly M.A., APR, FCPRS
Manager of Public Relations
(709) 778-1418
(709) 689-0713 cell
skelly@cnlopb.nl.ca

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Abercrombie offers cash for “Jersey Shore” to stop wearing brand

How valuable is a brand?

Well, apparently their brand is so valuable that Abercrombie & Fitch is willing to pay the cast of “Jersey Shore” sizeable amounts of cash in order to stop them from wearing Abercrombie clothes on air, according to cnn.com.

"We are deeply concerned that Mr. [Mike] Sorrentino's association with our brand could cause significant damage to our image. We understand that the show is for entertainment purposes, but believe this association is contrary to the aspirational nature of our brand, and may be distressing to many of our fans," an Abercrombie & Fitch spokesperson said in a statement. "We have also extended this offer to other members of the cast, and are urgently waiting a response."

Cast members tweeted comments ridiculing the offer, according to msnbc.com:

Paul “DJ Pauly D” Delvecchio had his own comment, calling the brand out on Twitter for reportedly previously selling shirts with the “Jersey Shore” gang’s famous catch phrase – GTL – gym, tan, and laundry.

“Hmmm if They Don’t Want Us To Wear Those Clothes Why Make GTL Shirts #yourPRsux,” he wrote, tweeting to a picture of an Abercrombie & Fitch T-shirt with “GTL” stamped on it above the word “Fitch.”

-srbp -

Separated at birth: missing cat edition

 

Bond arch-villain Ernst Blofeld

Tory Auditor General cum candidate John Noseworthy

 

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Feds to announce MOU on loan guarantee

NTV News broke the news reported Wednesday evening that an unspecified number of federal cabinet ministers will be in St. John’s on Friday to announce that the federal and provincial governments have signed a memorandum of understanding for a federal loan guarantee for the Muskrat Falls hydro-electric mega debt project.

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* updated for accuracy

Then again… election news mine edition

On the one hand, Rio Tinto ”Plans to double Labrador mine output”  according to the headline on a CBC news report.

On the other hand,

ONE of Australia's leading experts on global risk warned yesterday that a China slowdown would cause "quite an emptying of the large resource investment pipeline in Australia".

"Needless to say, the most marginal projects would be the first casualties," he added.

Roger Donnelly, chief economist at the Export Finance and Insurance Corporation, the government-owned export credit agency, told The Australian that "in the worst case, where there is a real market meltdown that leads to a North Atlantic double-dip, I don't think China would be spared".  [The Australian, August 10]

Then again, what the CBC story says in the second paragraph is that the company is “starting work on a tentative plan”.

Starting work.

Tentative plan.

Tentative.

As in maybe, kinda, sorta.

Read a little farther and you will see that the company is thinking about possibly-theoretically-with-a-bit-of-luck, doubling production at the mine in “the back end of 2015.”

Just in time for the provincial general election that will take place that same year, too no doubt.

Cool how that works out.

 

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No man is an island: Mount Pearl edition

There are few things about provincial Conservative Steve Kent’s website that stand out.

First, as of August 16, the blog hasn’t been updated since the 2007 general election.

Second, it really is all about Steve.  High speed flash animation of photos of Steve – all by himself – in various poses and settings.

Third, Steve missed the memo on whose party he belongs to.

Forget Dunderdale2011.

Steve’s a Dapper Dan man:

h/t to the Twitterverse

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A cause for grave concern #nlpoli

The Office of the Auditor General is an independent and reliable source of the objective, fact-based information that the House of Assembly needs to fulfill one of its most important roles: holding the provincial government accountable for its stewardship of public funds.

That’s a paraphrase of the description of the auditor general’s job found on the federal auditor general’s website.

Let’s add a bit of a twist to that description, though. The Auditor General’s office is not just an officer for the legislature alone; the AG office is one of the officers the public must trust to ensure that government spends your tax dollars and mine properly.

Aside from anything else, the people of Newfoundland and Labrador must have confidence that the person who serves as Auditor General is not a partisan for any political party and is functioning free of any favour or threat from the government itself.

John Noseworthy likely shattered that confidence for a good few people in the province on Tuesday when he became the second Auditor General in a row to leave office and enter politics.

In this case, Noseworthy announced his new political career a mere 16 days after leaving the job that he wants to run as a candidate for the ruling provincial Conservatives in the fall general election.

But that’s not the whole story.

Noseworthy had a year or more left  in his term when he announced last June that he was quitting to pursue “other professional opportunities.”  Asked about political ambitions at the time, Noseworthy merely told reporters he was ruling nothing out.

News reports on Tuesday mentioned his role in uncovering the House of Assembly spending scandal.  In interviews, Noseworthy was quick to call his own reports on government spending “scathing” and noted that he was critical of government.

That’s as maybe. The timing alone creates the impression of an unseemly haste to leave his job early in order to enter politics.   His comments appear self-serving and - in light of some of his actions over the past seven or eight years - dubious.

Noseworthy has been a bit of a media darling since 2006 and the spending scandal.  What that means is that local reporters have not questioned him even when there was good reason to doubt his comments, claims and conclusions.

For starters, Noseworthy has never accounted for millions of dollars of overspending that took place during the scandal period from 1996 to 2006.  Instead, he looked at other issues.

Nor has he explained why his own reports actually ignored the overspending. You’ll only find reference to the actual degree of overspending here at SRBP and in Chief Justice Derek Green’s report on the spending scandal.

In the parts he did report on, your humble e-scribbler raised questions about his public comments at the time and how he was conducting his reviews.  Chief Justice Green even recommended significant changes to sections of the law governing the Auditor General as a result of the inappropriate - and in some instances unfounded – accusations Noseworthy levelled at members of the legislature.

Then there’s the question of how both he and his old boss, now Tory Senator Elizabeth Marshall never made any comment on the level of overspending in the House of assembly accounts until 2006.  They may not have had access to the House books for a part of the scandal period but they did have access to the Comptroller General’s records for the whole time and he wrote all the cheques used to shell out the cash. And they never raised the issue once, except for the one time when Marshall’s attempt to investigate a single cabinet minister – Liberal as it turns out – got shut down.

Noseworthy’s also been known to polish his own knob and that of his future political associates.  In a 2009 report, Noseworthy actually made up a fictitious report recommendation and credited the government with following it.

A 2007 report claimed that the same agency produced a deficit and a surplus at the same time.

Nothing was quite as bizarre, though, as Noseworthy’s sudden decision to try and audit the offshore regulatory board.  At the time, Noseworthy’s office did not include the board in a list of government agencies the Ag felt he had the authority to audit. 

Noseworthy made quite the stink about getting inside the board offices, issuing a special report.

But once he got in, the whole thing vanished.

No subsequent reports.

No updates.

No letters.

Nothing.

Not until your humble e-scribbler brought up the question of the vanished Earth-shattering issue and reporters trotted off to Noseworthy’s office to see what gives.

Access problems, Noseworthy harrumphed.

But no word on his silence on the whole matter for the better part of two and a half years.

There was just a little cock-up in a story on the whole thing by one local radio station.

Funny thing in that little episode as it turns out. Natural resources minister Shawn Skinner wound up reminding everyone of the sweeping changes to provincial laws that wound up effectively shielding so much of Nalcor’s operations from public oversight.

Noseworthy didn’t say boo about any of that as it sailed through the legislature and it didn’t make any reference to it in any of his comments since June when he announced his retirement.

Maybe Noseworthy will be like his predecessor Beth Marshall who, after entering politics, didn’t find any problems with giving politicians access to bags of cash they could hand out to constituents, often without receipts.

Ah yes, old-fashioned patronage politics and the importance of having a member on the government side to dole out the goodies.

And, by gosh, didn’t John Noseworthy mention just that - having someone on the government side  - as he launched his career in politics.

Incompetence?

Normal practices?

Bias?

Whatever the cause, John Noseworthy’s announcement on Tuesday is the finest example yet of why our province desperately needs a fundamental, democratic revolution.

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Sun TV/Fox News wannabe? VOCM hits new low #nlpoli

Did they just get it wrong or is this the new standard of partisan journalism at the government-friendly VOCM? 

First of all, let us recall that Westcott is leaving the job as communications director in the Opposition Office of his own accord.  Westcott sent out an e-mail to local media saying that :

My commitment was to help Yvonne and her team through to the election. Now that the leadership situation has changed, Yvonne has kindly relieved me from that obligation effective the end of this month, which facilitates an earlier return to my papers for which I am extremely grateful.

Relieved from the obligation.

So VOCM wrote the headline:

Westcott Relieved of Duty by Liberal Party

Not true.

Relieved of duty means he got fired.  There’s no evidence for it.  VOCM got that spectacularly wrong.

It gets worse.

Craig Westcott did not work for the Liberal Party.  He worked for the House of Assembly.

The punters can tweet about him being fired all they want.  They don’t get paid to give accurate information.

VOCM does.

And if that wasn’t enough, VOCM’s version has all the hallmarks of a piece of Fox News horseshit.  According to the Voice of the Cabinet Minister, Westcott:

says he is not stepping down. Craig Westcott asserts that he did not quit, but that former party leader Yvonne Jones told him that his services would no longer be required as of August 31st.

Wow.

Then they bring up the private e-mails the provincial government released illegally last year.

This story – a complete falsehood from start to finish – is still online as of 8:00 PM Tuesday night.

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Feds want Gulf of St. Lawrence enviro review

Federal environment minister Peter Kent wants an extensive environmental review before Corridor Resources can get a permit to explore on the Old Harry prospect in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, CBC is reporting.

The Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board received 50 submissions as part of a review into an application by Corridor for an exploration permit.

In June, CNLOPB asked Kent to appoint a mediator or review panel  on the project:

“In the aftermath of the blowout in the Gulf of Mexico, Canadians are particularly sensitive to the risks associated with offshore oil exploration drilling. This proposed well is in an area where there has been little public experience with offshore drilling, and it has attracted an especially high level of concern. These concerns have been expressed clearly to the C-NLOPB and we are of the opinion that a level of environmental assessment beyond a screening report is warranted,” said Max Ruelokke, C-NLOPB Chair and CEO.

The offshore regulatory board’s enabling legislation gives it the power to request a review if “it believes the project may cause significant adverse environmental effects, or if public concerns warrant this level of review.” That’s from the offshore board’s June news release.

Old Harry is a potentially lucrative oil and natural gas field in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.  It lies in an area that is subject to a dispute over jurisdiction between Ottawa and each of the four provinces bordering the Gulf.

Corridor Resources wants to explore in a portion of the field that is within the CNLOPB area of responsibility.

Last summer, the federal government started talks with the Quebec government on a revenue sharing deal  - modelled on the 1985 deals with Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador – that would cover any sub-sea resources within a potential Quebec offshore area.

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Three parties, two leaders, one policy, no sense

Remember that thing about hardly being able to slide a sheet of paper between the three political parties in the current general election?

Well, newly minted Liberal boss Kevin Aylward wants to put your tax dollars into running a coast guard co-ordination centre in place of the federal one Ottawa is moving to Halifax.  He told CBC’s Fisheries Broadcast that one was going in the policy book on Monday.

And Kevin wants to keep shelling out the cash until the feds change their minds.

Which of course will be never, given that Kevin has agreed to force you and me to foot the bill for it out of our provincial tax dollars instead of making the guys in Ottawa do it.

Regular readers of these e-scribbles will recognise this idea.

Kathy Dunderdale announced it first.

Some may recall what your humble e-scribbler wrote back in June: thinking with her ass.

Well, the idea isn’t any smarter when it comes from Kevin Aylward’s ass instead of Kathy Dunderdale’s butt.

And before the New Democrats start thinking they are any brighter, let’s all remember that the whole fight started in the first place with the NDP sole shareholder – public sector unions – directing their political arm to take up the cudgels on this one.

Yvonne Jones got snookered into joining the NDP partisan protest over it, then got lambasted any time she tried anything with accusations she was trying to make the event partisan.

So here we are with three parties, two leaders of which have  endorsed the same policy and that policy makes no sense at all.

What has changed?

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Westcott packs it in

Craig Westcott confirmed Monday he’ll be leaving the opposition office and returning to run his newspapers. 

Here’s the statement he released:

Yvonne and I have agreed that my position will conclude on August 31. I will return to my two newspapers The Business Post and the Irish Loop Post. It has been a great privilege to have worked with Yvonne Jones and the staff in the Office of the Official Opposition, which plays a key role in the proper functioning of our democratic form of government. I made some great friends there and wish every one in the office tremendous success. It was a very positive experience and I am grateful for the hard work and support and the many personal kindnesses that Yvonne, Kelvin, Roland, Marshall and the very talented people in the office provided me. It was great being a part of that team. As publicly stated when I accepted the position last year, my intention was always to return to the newspaper business and journalism. My commitment was to help Yvonne and her team through to the election. Now that the leadership situation has changed, Yvonne has kindly relieved me from that obligation effective the end of this month, which facilitates an earlier return to my papers for which I am extremely grateful. I am looking forward to returning to journalism much the better for the experience of the past year.

With that position vacant so close to the election, the office will need to staff it soon. 

Speculation is likely to mount on who will get the job now that Westcott is leaving. Aylward has a number of former staffers who he might want close by him.  Then again he might go with someone new.

There’s no doubt though that Craig Westcott sharpened the Opposition’s political game in a way only the truly miserable or completely ignorant would fail to acknowledge

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Separated at birth: the eyes have it edition

Tea Party presidential wannabe Michelle Bachman from the cover of Newsweek.

Provincial Conservative natural resources minister Shawn Skinner.

- srbp -

Offshore board releases second part of offshore helicopter safety inquiry

From the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board:

The Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (C-NLOPB) received the Phase II Report of the Offshore Helicopter Safety Inquiry today and is releasing it to the public immediately.

"The Board would like to thank Commissioner Wells along with commission counsel and staff for their continued hard work during Phase II and in completing this Report. The C-NLOPB will review the report and recommendations proposed by the Commissioner and will respond once the review has been completed,” said Max Ruelokke, Chair and CEO of the C-NLOPB.

The C-NLOPB will take up to 10 days to review the report and recommendations. The Board will not be commenting on the report until it has completed its review.

To obtain a print copy of this report, please contactinformation@cnlopb.nl.ca with a full mailing address. The report will be sent within three business days. Persons wishing to pick-up a copy of the report at the C-NLOPB office are asked to state this in their request.

Media Contact:
Sean Kelly M.A., APR, FCPRS
Manager of Public Relations
(709) 778-1418
(709) 689-0713 (cell)
skelly@cnlopb.nl.ca

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Bloc NDP MP backs Tory Premier Dunderdale #nlpoli

Noob Bloc NDP member of parliament Ryan Cleary wants voters in Newfoundland and Labrador to return Conservative Premier Kathy Dunderdale to power in this fall’s general election.

VOCM reports that Cleary does not have any faith in Dunderdale’s leadership but thinks that she should continue to lead the province, albeit with a minority government.

He wants the Liberals and provincial New Democrats to mount a campaign to deliver a Tory minority government.

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The traffic that shook the world

Plenty of people shit bricks this week, from the leaders of two of the province’s political parties to the people who thought they had a lock on leading the third one.

The week started with word that Liberal leader Yvonne Jones had to leave the job due to illness.

That likely clenched a few bums.

As the race heated up to replace her, those same bums likely tried tried to swallow themselves as word tweeted that no less a star than former chief of defence staff was considering a run at the job.

As the week ended, the Liberals had seven declared candidates to replace Jones with an election only 60 days away.

Both the province’s Tories and New Democrats figured everything was nice and predictable.

Boy were they wrong.

In a mere five day span in the middle of August, the political world in Newfoundland and Labrador has seen more upheaval than it has in the previous decade.

Not only will the Liberals have a new leader before the next week begins, but the public firestorm of speculation over Rick Hillier shook the assumptions of all those people who believed that the incumbent Tories had a lock on their votes.

People switch.

And for all those people who think 60 days isn’t enough time for people to shift their political minds for lesser mortals than Rick, consider how quickly once cozy beliefs have vanished in the past year.

All those people who believed Danny would not disappear until after 2011 got the rudest shock of their lives when he skedaddled in the space of a week in late November/early December 2010.

Poof.

The Tories falling in the polls?

Unthinkable until now, but fall they have.

Tories in danger of losing seats?

What else could possibly explain the orgy of public spending in the undeclared election campaign.

Dear friends, the next 60 days are going to be some of the most exciting times in recent political history in Newfoundland and Labrador.

And for the record, here are the posts at SRBP that people were reading during this historic week”

1. If Rick Hillier really runs for Liberal leader…
2. Soper Inquiry
3. Changing the game
4. The truth is out there:  Nalcor version
5. Nalcor royalties – more information
6. Minister’s bullshite in excellent shape
7. Yvonne Jones:  profile in courage
8. Liberal leadership:  the process
9. Worshipping at the trough
10. Yvonne Jones newser – the details

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If Rick Hillier really runs for Liberal leader… #nlpoli

For those who may have missed it, CBC’s David Cochrane @cochranecbcnl tweeted on Wednesday that retired chief of defence staff Rick Hillier is in newfoundland and Labrador, talking to “senior Liberals”, and looking at a run at the Liberal leader’s job.

Here are the relevant tweets:

 CochraneCBCNL David Cochrane

Breaking: CBC News has learned that Rick Hillier is considering a run for the Liberal leadership.

 CochraneCBCNL David Cochrane

The former chief of defence staff is in NL. Sources say that Hillier is seeking advice from senior Liberals on a possible leadership bid.

CochraneCBCNL David Cochrane

Hillier isn't a lock to enter the race. But a source describes Hillier's interest as "quite serious."

So that started your humble e-scribbler thinking.

If Rick Hillier really runs for Liberal leader…

• All the other candidates will drop out instantly.
• The number of people considering a run will suddenly hit zero. 
• You will have to set up barbed wire and post guards to control the flood of Tories crossing the floor to the Liberals.
• Plans for a Danny Williams statue will surge ahead as competition ends to see who will get the coveted position  kissing his ass.
• Kathy Dunderdale will crap diamonds…
• and then join the stampede.
• Tony Ducey will cry.
• Marjorie will call Randy Simms to talk about how proud she is of Rick and always knew he’d come home, but that he is is still no Danny Williams.
• Gerry Byrne will call Open Line to suggest the election be held the day after Hillier is installed as leader.
• Gus Etchegary will be waiting on the line to complain that Hillier knows nothing about the fishery.
• Still not getting the joke, Ryan Cleary will post to Facebook asking Hillier if he’d help Jack off a horse.
• NDP twittermaniacs will retweet about the latest NDP nomination call…
• and run like a scalded cat from any reminders that they and outgoing NDP leader Lorraine Michael support Dunderdale’s plan to double electricity rates for people on low and fixed incomes (and everyone else while they’re at it) while delivering discount power to Nova Scotians.
• CRA’s August poll results will show support for the Liberals remains at record lows.
• Bill Rowe will start off NightLine with reminiscences of all the times he met Hillier at receptions in Ottawa while Bill was Danny Williams’ ambassador to Ottawa and had to wait for someone in Danny Williams office to ship up his used snow tires, find him a cell phone to use and buy a laptop at Best Buy. Then Rowe will plug his own insider account of stuff he was outside the room for.
• The local commentariat on twitter and in the online comments section of any website will remind everyone that the Liberal party is in disarray, has a huge debt, can’t find volunteers or candidates so the election result isn’t likely to change from earlier predictions of a sweep by the incumbent party, as if those things never happened before in local politics.*
• One year into Hillier’s term, the local commentariat will be talking about disarray and dysfunction in the Tory party, its debt problems, lack of volunteers and inability to find a leader as if those things never happened in local politics before.  
• You will not be able to find anyone – not a single living human being – who will admit to having ever voted Tory in their lives.

- srbp -

*  edit to make the point clearer that these things are in fact a function of being an “out’ party” versus an “in” party.

Yvonne Jones: Profile in Courage

What does not kill you makes you stronger.

That must be the case.

Yvonne Jones is emerging from her battle with cancer with unrivalled moral strength even if her physical strength has been sapped to the point she must quit as leader of the provincial Liberal Party.

She worked through her cancer treatment, including returning to the House of Assembly before she was finished treatment. 

She went back to the floor of the legislature this past spring knowing the stream of abuse and invective – some of it savagely personal - the governing Conservatives heaped on her in the House continually for years would not let up.

The Tories, including the incompetent and biased Speaker did not fail to meet the lowest of low expectations.

To those familiar with the goings on in the House, few could fail to be impressed by Yvonne Jones. No matter what issues you disagreed with her on, there is not a single person in the province who could doubt Jones’ sincerity and the personal integrity she has in abundance.

Courage is not word people use often when speaking about politicians. But politicians are among the most courageous people there are in our province.

They often act against the weight of public opinion, against the approval of their colleagues from all parties, despite personal attacks, that wound them and their loved ones and despite often suffering from the simple human failing of wanting to do the right thing but of sometimes being uncertain in what direction that good really does lie.

The truly courageous ones, like Yvonne, don’t need to tell you how courageous they are. 

They don’t need to.

They simply are.

From the podium Tuesday, Yvonne Jones did not tell people about courage.

She showed them.

Jones showed the pain of her decision at her news conference.  But as she looked around the room, Jones very likely saw a group of people more optimistic for the future than they have been in years. 

Jones can take credit for a lot of that renewed strength of that rediscovered confidence. 

Real leaders lead best by example.

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Liberal Leadership: the process

The text of a news release issued by the Executive Board of Liberal Party on Tuesday night:

ST. JOHN’S, NL – Following the resignation of Yvonne Jones, Leader of the Liberal Party of Newfoundland & Labrador, Party President Judy Morrow expresses on behalf of the Executive Board her gratitude and admiration to Ms. Jones for her contribution and commitment to the Party during her time as Leader.

“Yvonne was a tremendous asset to the Party in her role as Leader and I look forward to her ongoing dedication,” said Morrow. “She has and will continue to work very hard for the people of the Party, the Province, and the District of Cartwright - L’Anse Au Clair.”

Following tonight’s meeting of the Executive Board, Morrow is pleased to announce that a selection process for a new Leader has been established.

The selection process is as follows:

- Nominations for leadership candidates shall open Wednesday, August 10, 2011 at Noon, closing Friday, August 12, 2011 at Noon.

- Interested candidates shall submit a letter expressing their interest. Letters shall be submitted c/o Judy Morrow, President to the below address:

Liberal Party of Newfoundland and Labrador, Beothuck Building, Suite 205 – 20 Crosbie Place St. John’s, NL   A1B 3Y8

-  Interested candidates shall submit a non-refundable $500 fee in addition to their letter of interest.

-  Commencing at 2pm on Friday, August 12, 2011, the Executive Board shall engage in a 48-hour consultation process that will reach out to Liberals province-wide.

-  The Executive Board shall convene at 2pm on Sunday, August 14, 2011, location TBA, to provide interested candidates an opportunity to address the Executive Board.

-  in addition, the Executive Board shall consider and discuss the feedback received through the consultation process.

-  At the conclusion of the above noted process, the Executive Board shall vote to determine the successful candidate for Leader.

“Despite the short timeframe in which the Party is operating prior to the General Election, I believe that we have established a democratic process that allows for the selection of a new Leader in an expeditious and efficient manner with input from Liberals across the province.”

-30-

Media Contacts:

Judy Morrow, President          Liberal Party Office                       

C: (709) 727-3773                  T: (709) 754-1813

judymorrow@nf.aibn.com     info@nlliberals.ca

Not quite the same situation

Curious to see Here and Now running a clip of Don Jamieson returning to lead the Liberal party in 1979 after Bill Rowe resigned.

It’s not quite the same situation as the one Liberals and others in the political world are facing today.

Kathy Dunderdale is no Brian Peckford, for starters.

And that is a sentence easily nominated for understatement of the millennium.

But while Yvonne Jones is stepping down as Liberal leader for health reasons, Liberal leader Bill Rowe left politics – thereby opening the job for Jamieson - after figuring prominently in one of the biggest political scandals in the province’s history.

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Minister’s bullshite in excellent shape

How many false or misleading claims can one cabinet minister make in one letter to the editor of the province’s major daily newspaper?

Let’s see how Tom Marshall did in a letter to the Telegram headline “Province in excellent shape”.

Misleading:

When this government came into power, Newfoundland and Labrador’s finances were in a very precarious position. Annual deficits were approaching $1 billion and an independent review at the time noted that if significant changes were not made, the provincial debt was projected to reach almost $16 billion within four years

What Marshall doesn’t say is that his current plan would increase the public debt to more than $16 billion base don a combination of continued deficit spending on the annual budget and the Muskrat Falls project.

False:

To turn things around, we developed a plan and stuck to it. In that short span of eight years, the turnaround that has taken place in Newfoundland and Labrador is remarkable.

The plan  - if there was one – had nothing to do with any subsequent provincial government financial windfalls.  The whole thing came from a combination wild oil price increases and royalty deals signed before 2003.

False:

Instead of increasing, our debt has actually decreased by almost $4 billion.

The total public liabilities sit at $12.5 billion according to the most recent Auditor General’s review. The provincial government has current financial assets on hand of $4.0 billion but those are already committed to other things.  While they appear to reduce the public debt for accounting purposes – what Marshall is talking about – the reality is that what the provincial government owes is, at best, only marginally lower than what it was in 2005.

False:

Of course, that means our debt servicing costs have also dropped, which leaves us with more money to invest in the people and communities of the province.

According to the most recent Auditor General’s review, debt expenses increased in 2010 to a level they haven’t hit for three years.

Misleading:

We have not borrowed in the capital markets for operational purposes since 2004 and only borrowed in 2007 to reduce the unfunded liability in the province’s pension plans.

They may not have borrowed money from the markets but they have borrowed from the cash surpluses (that’s the stuff that makes the debt appear smaller than it is).  Borrowing to cover a deficit is borrowing and it has a cost.

Misleading, maybe false:

Once developed, these assets will provide a stable, predictable revenue stream which will cover all debt servicing costs.

There is no evidence to suggest that the provincial treasury will gain $1.0 billion in annual royalty and fee payments from Muskrat Falls or any other Nalcor asset.

Misleading:

Our debt to GDP ratio, one of the primary indicators of the financial health of a province, is among the best in the country and has improved from an unsustainable level of 70 per cent in 1999…

The debt to GDP ratio changed because of the massive increase in oil prices.  If it drops, the debt ratio will drop with it back to levels that are “unsustainable”.

And if Marshall’s Muskrat plan goes through, then the “unsustainable” level gets easier to hit.

Misleading:

It is also worth noting that the credit rating agency Standard & Poors, while upgrading our credit rating from ‘A’ to ‘A+’ in 2010 (the highest it has ever been), noted that Newfoundland and Labrador “has a strong liquidity position, reflecting its past operating surpluses and prudent spending practices.”

‘Strong liquidity” is a reference to the cash and means that if they had to the provincial government could pay off a raft of debt in a hurry.

But since the cash is earmarked, it really isn’t as readily available as that comment makes it seem.

Marshall makes an oblique reference to that with the next comment: “Using current revenues from non-renewable resources for renewable energy projects for the future benefit of Newfoundland and Labrador is the core of this province’s Energy Plan.”

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Worshipping at the Trough

Patronage politics of the worst old-fashioned sort is alive and well in Newfoundland and Labrador.

VOCM posted a story online within the past 24 hours (hopefully it won’t be disappeared too soon) that makes it pretty clear:

A cabinet minister is unapologetic for the rash of pre-election spending announcements coming from the government. The MHA for Grand Bank, Darin King, announced some money for health care recently. There has been a steady stream of news releases, most announcing money that had already been allocated in the budget, over the past several months.

On VOCM Open Line with Randy Simms, King said he is dedicated to bringing in as much money as he can to his district.

Where patronage thrives, paternalism can’t be too far away.

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Yvonne Jones newser – details

From the official media advisory:

Head:  Yvonne Jones to discuss her future in politics

Opposition Leader Yvonne Jones will make a statement today concerning her future as Leader of the Liberal Party of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Jones will deliver the statement at 1:30 p.m. in the Conception Bay Room at the Holiday Inn in St. John’s.

The media, party members and well wishers are invited to attend.

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Media Contact:   Craig Westcott| Director of Communications| Office of the Official Opposition

(709) 729-6151   Cell 693-1306  craigwestcott@gov.nl.ca