Whither the Liberals #nlpoli

[revised and edited 4:45 PM]

The tale is not told in the view of columnists  - Stephen Maher, Chantal Hebert and Susan Delacourt - who try to link a series of different events into one explanation.

The tale is told in the comment of one long-time Liberal who bumped into another in St. John’s recently.

The Liberal Party doesn’t speak to me any more, said one.

Exactly, exclaimed the other.

The Liberal Party may have won six seats in last Tuesday’s general election but it stands at an historic low.  Only 11% of the electorate in Newfoundland and Labrador voted Liberal on Tuesday.

Voters in Newfoundland and Labrador looking for something other than the ruling Conservatives opted for the New Democrats last Tuesday and they did so in record numbers.

They did it in St. John’s for the most part but also in Burin-Placentia West,  Labrador West and The Straits-White Bay North. 

While the New Democrat resurgence is a subject for another day, the key thing for this post is which party voters chose last Tuesday and it was not the party that dominated politics in this province for so much of the post-Confederation period.

The reason is simple:  the Liberal Party does not speak to them any more.

A decade or so ago, the dominant voices in the party shifted to an increasingly rural focus on the party.  The Blame Canada commission with its pile of old axes reground was symptomatic of the shift.  So too was the resurgence of make-work as a core government policy for rural parts of the province and the transfer of government offices to major centres outside Capital City.

In this most recent election, ruralism took centre stage in the party’s platform.  And the leader the party executive chose overwhelming was not just committed to the ruralist agenda: he started out the election by loudly proclaiming his fierce “nationalist” sentiment.

Some may blame the Liberal fortunes on the last-minute change of leadership.  Others will focus on the impact of what appeared to be the most ineptly run campaign in provincial political history. 

Both had their part to play but both the campaign and the focus were already in train before the executive board picked Kevin Aylward.  And, if anything, Aylward did not apparently want to shift the dominant internal party trends so much as reinforce them. 

Aylward is scarcely any different from Yvonne Jones who fixated on the idea that building a Stunnel to Labrador was the winning party policy.  Party insiders fought to keep it out of her convention speech and her Facebook posting during the campaign was nothing more than a last-ditch effort to push the stunnedest of stunned ideas.

Beyond the ruralist core, the Liberal Party simply does not know what it stands for. 

In the last election, the party became the nothing more than a political sideshow.  There were plenty of contortionists: cast-offs from other parties abounded.  There was a star of the open line shows.  A perennial favourite of the political fringes stage-mothered a couple of her current charges through their political appearances on the ballot rather than run herself.  A few students came along for good measure as did staffers hounded relentlessly until they agreed to be names on ballots at their own expense.

The only thing missing was the sword swallower.

The Liberal party does not speak to anyone, anymore.

The people running the party seem to have no desire to speak to anyone other than themselves out there on the tattered edges of the provincial political landscape.

They are so far out in the political woods, they’d have to come in to hunt.

What’s worse, though, is that they seem to have lost the desire to hunt.

You can see that in the party after the election.

The leader disappeared.

The party president popped up to do a couple of interviews about the latest leadership crisis.

But while political life carried on, and issues and targets abounded, the party fell completely silent.  Shameful comments by the Premier about the legislature went unchallenged by Liberals. 

They said nothing about anything that truly mattered in the province and in the stuff that mattered only to the people involved in the party, they said little.

The Liberal party no longer speaks to the people of the province.

And, as it seems, the party doesn’t even speak to itself any more either.  Maybe the few of them still out in the political woods need to take heed of that. 

The rest of us [in the province] already have.

- srbp -

An excess of chutzpah: pollster attacks colleagues over methods, accuracy #nlpoli

Corporate Research Associates president Don Mills is criticising his professional colleagues for their use of online surveys to conduct opinion polling.

CRA uses telephone surveys. In two election polls released in September, MQO reportedly used a combination of telephone and online surveys to prepare it’s results. Environics used an online method and Telelink used telephone surveys.

According to the Telegram:

An in-depth poll by CRA conducted for The Telegram came closest to election night results, Mills said.

The Telegram noted:

CRA, using a telephone poll based on a sample size of 800, predicted 59.5 per cent support for the PCs among decided voters, 24.7 per cent for the NDP and 15.8 per cent for the Liberals.

The actual election results were 56.1 per cent for the PCs; 24.6 for the NDP; and 19.1 per cent for the Liberals — a total difference of 6.8 per cent from the poll prediction.

The only problem is that claim isn’t true.

Like all of the opinion polls released during the campaign, Mills and CRA polled eligible voters.  They did not report screening for voters only nor indicate any method by which they determined whether those opinions they surveyed related to people who would vote only.

By surveying all eligible voters, Mills and CRA should have reported all their responses, including those who indicated they would not vote or had no opinion.

That’s what the Telegram did in it’s front page story on Thursday.  The numbers cited in the Telegram on Saturday disregard some responses and therefore  present a distorted and misleading impression of what CRA’s polling found.

Here’s what the Telly reported compared to the actual reported vote result on Tuesday as a share of eligible vote:

	Telegram Sept 30 - Oct 3	Actual Vote Oct 11	CRA Apparent Error*
PC	44	32	+ 12
LIB	12	11	+ 1
NDP	18	14	+ 4
UND/Will not vote	26	42	- 16

Note:  The figures do not add to 100% everywhere due to an apparent minor rounding or typographical error in the results as reported by the Telegram.  SRBP adjusted the UND by one percentage point from what the Telegram reported.  When SRBP contacted the Telegram for more information on the poll, the newspaper management refused to discuss the results at all beyond what was in the published stories.

Even allowing for that one percentage point, the published CRA results are significantly different from the actual result.

SRBP compared most of the polls in a pre-election post.

Compared to CRA, MQO** was off by about the same proportions using its hybrid method. CRA was off by the same country mile in 2007.

Environics was closer to the final actual result than either of those two.

Of all surveys released during the campaign, Telelink came closest to the actual result, just as they did in 2007.

SRBP will have more on the polls in the recent general election in a series starting on Monday.

We’ll look at:

• the polls themselves, what they reported and how they reported it,
• compare the poll findings with the actual results,
• tackle the comments by Liberal leader Kevin Aylward,
• look at poll reporting standards in the news media and in the polling industry, and
• and look at the way the local media used polls in the past two elections.

- srbp -

Related: 

• “Comparing polls”  By Horizon Research, a New Zealand opinion research firm that uses online polling.  Horizon questions the validity of discounting upwards of 30% or more of responses when reporting survey results.
• “Two wrongs and you get a news story”  discusses the way CRA’s reporting of decideds produces a misleading impression, in this case from 2009, of an increase in support for one party when it actually declined.
• CRA has been known to engage in controversial practices, like releasing a poll just before a by-election vote, significantly ahead of its usual schedule for releasing its omnibus for that quarter.

*  Apparent error refers to the discrepancy between the CRA poll result reported by the Telegram on the front page of its Thursday edition compared to the actual vote result. 

All polls contain error. Researchers strive to reduce known and possible sources of error. 

** Edit to correct the comparison.

Election Week Traffic #nlpoli

The ballots are in and counted.

People are still trying to grasp the enormity of what happened

Next week, SRBP will have a series on polls during the election.   We’ll look at the polls themselves, compare their findings with the actual results, tackle the comments by Liberal leader Kevin Aylward, and look at the way the local media used polls.

If that isn’t enough for the election junkies out there, we’ll also turn attention to some of the issues connected to the historic low turn-out in last week’s general election.

We’ll take a closer look at the NDP and Liberal campaigns and the seats they won plus there’ll be the usual collection of comments about and observations on public life in the province.

There’s always lots to chew over at SRBP.

In the meantime, to keep you going, here are the top 10 stories SRBP readers were poring over last week:

1. Here’s what an opposition party looks like
2. Globe and Shitemail
3. The Morning After the Night Before
4. Williams set to offer comms director plum patronage job
5. The way not to change
6. She can’t handle the truth
7. Whom the gods destroy
8. Motivation and demotivation
9. A house divided
10. What does sanction really mean?

- srbp -

She can’t handle the truth #nlpoli

Premier Kathy Dunderdale is like her benefactor, Danny Williams.  neither liked the province’s legislature where they could be held to public account for their actions.

So they have treated the legislature  - and by extension the people of Newfoundland and Labrador  - with contempt.

Dunderdale told CBC:

Most of my issues are around the quality of debate and the research and the fact that you can pretty well get up in the house of assembly and say whatever it is you like. You don't have to be concerned with truth.

Kathy Dunderdale should stop projecting her own behaviour on others.

As noted in this corner before, Kathy Dunderdale has a problem.

Kathy Dunderdale says things that are not true.

She says things that are at odds with the facts.

She says things in a way that suggests she does not understand the issue or the explanation she is trying to give.

Kathy Dunderdale does not look like she knows what she is talking about, sometimes.

She gets caught out on these occasions and it must be embarrassing for her.

However, the failing is entirely hers.

Kathy Dunderdale does not like the legislature because it shows up her numerous shortcomings.

 

- srbp -

What does sanction really mean?

Here’s what Kathy Dunderdale told CBC’s David Cochrane about Muskrat Falls:

"We're looking at sanction, at the earliest at this point in time, would be in the spring and the house will be in session before we sanction Muskrat Falls," said Dunderdale.

That’s an interesting timeline.

It’s way beyond when it was supposed to happen, as labradore pointed out on Wednesday. The whole thing was supposed to sanctioned in 2009 and up and running by 2015.

Now project sanction won’t happen until the second quarter of 2012, at the earliest.

So if you’ve been following this along, the Lower Churchill is costing millions with tons of design and engineering work started.  The thing is rolling along through review after study and yet no one has approved the project yet.

That’s what sanction is, right?

Approval to go ahead and do something.

Bit late by next spring, it would seem.

If nothing else, Dunderdale is supposed to have an agreement with Emera no later than November 30 or the term sheet Danny signed as he ran from the Premier’s Office last fall goes up in a puff of pixie dust.

That would mean the project should be ready to launch.

And by that time, Nalcor would pretty much have the approval to launch or they’d be so far along in the process stopping wouldn't really be much of an option.

So what would the “debate” in the House mean?

Not very much at all.

In reality, Muskrat Falls is already “sanctioned” in all but name only.  All that’s left to come is the huge bills and the monstrous political fallout.

- srbp -

The fine art of cabinet making #nlpoli

One of these people will replace Shawn Skinner as Capital City’s man in cabinet:

• Tom Osborne
• John Dinn
• Dan Crummell

- srbp -

Some Day the Sun Will Shine: Oil and the End of Newfoundland History #nlpoli

Some Day the Sun Will Shine: Oil and the End of Newfoundland History

Time:  8 p.m.-10 p.m. Location: Hampton Hall, Marine Institute, Ridge Road Description: The Newfoundland Historical Society will hold a free public lecture. This month's lecturer will be Dr. Jerry Bannister. Refreshments to follow. Parking is free and everyone is welcome to attend! Sponsor: Newfoundland Historical Society Originally from Newfoundland and Labrador, Bannister is associate professor of history at Dalhousie University.

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The way not to change #nlpoli

Kevin Aylward did a yeoman service to his party by stepping in and leading it through a tough time.

He didn’t add anything to the seat tally. 

Anyone who claims otherwise is full of shite. Those seats came from the hard work of the individuals running in each of them plus, in one case, the marvels of the internal combustion engine.

Now Aylward finds himself a leader without a seat in the legislature.

The political gods have a fine sense of humour.

Not to worry. 

There’s not much point in Kevin hanging about. Even if your humble e-scribbler had not already suggested that convention dictates he go,  Kevin is facing the advice of one of his old caucus mates.

Chris Decker told listeners to a CBC radio call-in show that Kevin needs to go:

For one thing, Decker said, the Liberals would lose Opposition status, as they would then be tied with the NDP at five seats each.

As well, Decker said, Tuesday's election showed that the Liberals cannot count on voters in any particular district.

Former cabinet minister John Efford chimed in and suggested the party should hold a leadership convention so that Kevin or John himself or anyone else who wanted it can have a go at the job.

Tuesday night proved to be a “holy f***, that was close” moment for the people running the Liberal Party and for people, like John Efford, who want to run the party. 

Now that the danger has passed they want to get right back to the old ways of doing business that put the party in his current sorry state.

The party needs to change.

A credible political party cannot afford to have a repeat of recent history including the way Jones left the job a few weeks ago and the board picked her replacement.

Change means things have to be different.  More of the same is not an option.  Change also means that so many people within the party will have to give up the traditional Liberal Party delusion that some saviour, some messiah will appear and make all the problems go away.

The party also can’t afford to try and recycle someone – whether Aylward, Efford or Jones – even on a temporary basis.  temporary has a tendency to become permanent, especially when the shock of a near death experience wears off.

That would be the way not to change.

And if people want the Liberal Party to survive, change is the only choice left.

- srbp -

Here’s what an opposition party looks like #nlpoli

The Conservatives won’t open the House of Assembly until the spring.

Former Tory Premier Tom Rideout thinks it’s a bad idea, according to CBC:

"The government is an incumbent government. It has plenty of legislation on the books and ready, I'm sure, for the legislature. I think it's a sign that in Danny's case and, again, unfortunately in Kathy's case, that they're not house of assembly people," said Rideout.

…

Rideout said he loved life in the house of assembly, but he said Dunderdale and Williams see it as a "necessary evil."

CBC quotes NDP leader Lorraine Michael in their story online:

“I think its irresponsible. You know, Danny Williams did the same thing in 2007 and I just see Kathy Dunderdale carrying on the same arrogant way of dealing with opposition in the house," she said Tuesday, after the NDP won five districts in the provincial election.

That’s what an opposition party should sound like.

- srbp -

Globe and Shitemail #nlpoli

"Orange wave credited with slimming Tory majority", the headline on the Globe story proclaims.  The lede is just as bad

An "orange wave" is being credited with toppling a cabinet minister in St. John's, as the impact of the NDP's federal breakthrough continues to ripple across the country.

We never do find out who is doing the crediting throughout Oliver Moore's  thin account of recent political events. Perhaps it was someone at the bar.  Safari journalists are evidently no better at avoiding superficial observations than the locals who were pushing the race for second place theme.

- srbp -

The Morning After the Night Before #nlvotes #nlpoli

The story of the night is the loss of two cabinet ministers and the Premier’s parliamentary assistant in gains by the New Democrats in St. John’s and by the Liberals in Torngat Mountains.

This – coupled with the fights in seats across the province – was the real story of the election.  The conventional media stuck with the  bullshit “race for second place” theme right up until the last of their coverage on election night.

Natural resources minister Shawn Skinner went down to defeat in St. John’s Centre, losing to New Democrat Gerry Rogers.  Skinner was a key player in the Dunderdale cabinet holding down one of the more important portfolios.  That didn’t matter.

Aboriginal affairs minister Patty Pottle lost her seat in Torngat Mountains to Liberal randy Edmonds.

In St. John’s North, New Democrat Party president Dale Kirby pounded Bob Ridgley. This one in particular stands out.  Ridgley is part of the Osborne-Ridgley dynasty that had a stranglehold on three St. John’s seats.  Ridgley was parliamentary assistant to first Danny Williams and then Kathy Dunderdale.

Seat counts based on opinion polls of questionable accuracy turned out to be a mug’s game of the first order.  What was supposed to be 43 Tories, four New Democrats and two Liberals, turned out to be 37 Tories, six Grits and five Dippers.

At some point people will put seat projection artists right next to the psychic astrologers election forecasters in their news line-up.

This is a record low turn-out, beating Danny Williams’ record set in 2007.  Preliminary numbers for Tuesday night put the turn-out at 58.3% of eligible voters.

Just to put 2011 in context, here’s a chart showing the party shares of eligible vote since 1949.

The Tories just got re-elected with the smallest share of eligible vote of any government formed since 1949.  They beat the Tories’ 1975 previous low score of 33% by one point.

For those who missed it, NTV/Telelink put the don’t know/will not vote at 42% in its election poll.  That works out to 58% turnout.  Bang-on.  Some of the other polls had the same category as low as 18%. 

The Tories wound up with 32% of the eligible vote.  NTV had it down as 35%.  Liberals got 11%, while NTV had them at 7.4%.  NTV had the NDP at 15%.  They got 14%.

NTV/Telelink is  - consistently - the most accurate political poll done in the province bar none.  SRBP will do a detailed comparison of the polls and the results in another post.

While all three political parties will likely swap out their leaders before the next election, the Liberals are the ones with an immediate leadership problem. 

Caretaker Kevin Aylward lost his seat.  He could carry on but common sense and convention would tell him to go.  The Liberals need to change their leader and their executive board sooner rather than later in order to start the massive rebuilding effort ahead of them.

This election showed there is still life in the party, despite the gaffe-riddled campaign at the provincial level. The Liberals can’t afford to waste time.  Preparation for the next election has to start today.

The New Democrat leadership will pose some interesting choices for the party.  Expect Dale Kirby to be a leading contender based in no small measure on the profile he will likely win once the House opens in the spring.  He may not be the best choice, but he will be a leading contender.

The other thing the Dippers have to figure out is when to say goodbye to Lorraine and usher in the new era.

Part of the NDP calculation will depend on how fast the Tories dump Kathy Dunderdale. She was an interim leader who decided to stay.  The party lost big in its bedrock and had fights in plenty of other seats.

Much like the 1999 election heralded the beginning of the Liberal end, the 2011 could be the turning point for the ruling Tories.  If they continue to coast – with or without Dunderdale - they will be facing an even stronger NDP assault.  If the Liberals get their act together, the combination of Liberal and NDP attacks could end the Conservative dynasty.

The Tories need to change.  The only problem is that a change before the fourth year of their mandate will trigger an election.  They might not be ready for another election so soon after the current one, especially with a raft of members ready to retire.

- srbp -

Belated September Traffic #nlpoli

In the rush of the uber-exciting election, your humble e-scribbler forgot to post the September stat porn list.

Consider this your bit of exciting information during an otherwise dull voting day.

1. Williams set to offer comms director plum patronage job
2. Classical gas
3. The first big political story of the campaign
4. Dateline:  Desperation, Newfoundland
5. Dippers on point for first CBC election political panel
6. New Poll.  New Result.
7. The Hebron Give-Away
8. Advertising group has Tory, Nalcor ties
9. RCMP investigating SNC Lavalin officials over corruption allegations
10. To you with affection from Danny

- srbp -

A house divided #nlpoli #nlvotes

In the west end of St. John’s, one house shows the drama of the struggle between the forces of Blue and the forces of Orange for control of Capital City.

The first candidate who came to the door canvassing for votes turned out to be Paul Boundridge.

You won the lottery, or words to that effect greeted him as the woman of the house flung open the door.

She explained that – despite the fact it was the Thursday before polling day - he’d been the first of the three candidates to knock on her door.  So he was getting her vote.

Job done?

Not quite.

The subject of a sign for the front lawn popped up from one or the other.

The neighbourhood is bare of signs, incidentally.

Da byes in orange had one in the car so their newest supporter was happy to have them put it up, pdq.

For good measure, she called her husband, a Big Friggin’ Tory, to tell him the news. 

She wanted to make sure he didn’t come home, fly into a rage, and toss the sign on the neighbour’s lawn.

Or worse.

So he called John Dinn’s headquarters and had them race over to stick one of their signs next to the other one.

And on the Monday before the official voting day, there stood the two signs as you see them in the picture. 

How will the election turn out?

Well, so far the election is exactly what everyone didn’t expect. 

One of the three leaders people assumed would be running this time last year is long gone.  The other gave up the leader job, although she could have it back in a day or two if her replacement doesn’t win his seat.

There all sorts of seats projections out there.

We’ll all know the details by tonight.  Remember all the projections though and see which ones, if any came close to being right. 

And as a last note, for those of you with Rogers, tune into Out of the Fog for the election coverage.  You can catch your humble e-scribbler doing something other than scribbling.

- srbp -

Motivation and demotivation #nlpoli #nlvotes

“Complacency is your greatest enemy in an election,” Progressive Conservative Leader Kathy Dunderdale said Sunday.

“When it's hard to motivate people to become engaged to get out and to cast their ballot, then you have a concern about that.”

That’s a quote CBC used out as part of a story that focuses, curiously enough, on how one political leader and only one political leader is responding to an issue in the election:  lack of apparent voter interest.

The story casts Kathy Dunderdale in the role of impartial election commentator not as the leader of a political party who is – quite obviously – failing to motivate people to vote for her and her fellow Tories.

The story also mentions poll results to make sure no one forgets what election reporting is really all about.  There at the post… yada yada yada

Dunderdale’s not alone. All three leaders have that problem – failing to inspire voters positively -  but it varies from party to party.

Dunderdale is the one whose inability to find any energy in  her campaign stands in stark contrast to her slogan.

Now when news media do this sort of reporting, there’s no giant conspiracy.  It’s just a sign of how much reporting in this province has become an adjunct of the political system.

The political story of the parties struggling against voter disinterest or the Tories and Dippers fighting in St,. John’s is is part of the real story of this election and, right up until the end,  CBC and every other news media outlet in the province has ignored it.

Why are people so unmoved by the politicians?  And if they are moved, at least in St. John’s, why is it to move from the Tories to the NDP?

Fascinating stuff.

But you’ll never find it in the conventional media.

There it’s all horse races and Kathy Dunderdale and others with an interest in the campaign framing their stories for themselves.

- srbp -

Whom the gods destroy #nlpoli #nlvotes

There's letters seal'd, and my two schoolfellows,
Whom I will trust as I will adders fang'd—
They bear the mandate, they must sweep my way
And marshal me to knavery. Let it work;
For 'tis the sport to have the enginer
Hoist with his own petard, an't shall go hard
But I will delve one yard below their mines
And blow them at the moon.

For the past seven years the Tory political staffers masquerading  online as a variety of real people have liked to push the theme that the New Democrats should form the official opposition in preference to the Liberals.

Danny Williams , you may recall who that is, used to compliment Lorraine Michael on her performance and her questions in a way that was by no means smarmy, condescending and appearing to be insincere.

He and his friends slagged Liberals – especially Yvonne Jones – at the drop of a hat.

The Tories even agreed among themselves, backed by the supposedly impartial Speaker of the House of Assembly, to give extra cash to the NDP caucus and to deny the Liberals of funds recommended by an independent commission.

They did this in the mistaken belief that fostering a fight between the opposition parties would allow their beloved benefactors [and party] to stay in power.

If the trends in this election hold true, their clever little political plot has already come back to roger them in ways they did not see coming.

And they richly deserve both the shock and the shaft. 

“Hoist with his own petard” are the words Shakespeare wrote for Hamlet.  A petard is another word for a bomb intended.

A few centuries later own goal is a word you’ll still hear military engineers talk about them.  Except this time they call them “own goals.”

You’ll find own goals in other places too, like when any crafty plan backfires.

Own goals are the way the universe reacts to over-weaning and undeserved arrogance.

Own goals are Fate’s reward for douchebags.

The New Democrats are giving the Conservatives a hard run in their supposedly safe homes in St. John’s. 

Tom Osborne, of the Osborne-Ridgley dynasty, is fighting hard against a sharp young New Democrat named Keith Dunne in St. John’s South. He is a former health minister.

Ed Buckingham has represented the uber-Tory seat of St. John’s East.  He replaced John  Ottenheimer as the representative for a seat that has previously sent such ardent Townie Tories as Witch0hunt Willie Marshall in to battle with the evil Liberals.  Buckingham’s got a fight on his hands from gasoline guru George Murphy.

Over in St. John’s North,  Bob Ridgley is having a hard time just like his nephew in St. John’s South.  Among other things, Ridgley is apparently facing the ire of public sector pensioners whom the Tories poked needlessly in the eye early on in the campaign.  Bob’s under pressure from New Democrat party president Dale Kirby.

And in St. John’s Centre, New Democrat Gerry Rogers is threatening to cut short the political career of natural resources minister Shawn Skinner.  That struggle contains the stuff of Greek theatre, bringing together, as it would appear, the breast cancer scandal  - the second biggest political controversy since 2003 – with the Conservatives’ entry in the campaign to supplant the 1969 Churchill Falls contract as the public reference point for political disaster.

Since the late 1990s, the Tories have used their old guaranteed seats in St. John’s as the base from which to stage their comeback.  They’ve had an unassailable lock on the seats in the metro area since 2003.  The Tories evidently figured this time would be the same.

But something happened that no one seems to have expected.

Sure the polls showed a marked drop in Tory support starting in early 2010.  The former Tory enthusiasts just seemed to disappear off the political polling landscape.

Where they went didn’t show up until later on.  New Democrat support didn’t really pick up until May 2010.  What appeared to be a temporary bump from the federal election turned out to be something more.

What the provincial Conservatives missed along the way is that in the St. John’s area their supporters bleed to the New Democrats.  So anything that builds the New Democrats weakens the Tories, not the Grits. 

If the Tories imagined the NDP could not organize its way to anything beyond what they had already, then the Tories figured wrongly.

As the Tories talked up the need to keep a member on the government side, they seem to have forgotten that in St. John’s, the old patronage lines don’t work.  They don’t work because they don’t matter.

Townie members of the House of Assembly don’t deliver pork to their constituents.  They have precious little to do with the majority of their constituents whose needs for fire trucks and road paving come from municipal government rather than their provincial politician. 

Townie voters can elect an opposition member to the legislature and not feel a single pang of retribution. 

Townie voters are also public servants in large numbers.  Tom Marshall’s dismissal of retired public servants in the talk of giving them a modest raise in benefits may well have resonated with the majority of public servants who are getting ever closer to retirement age. 

When the Tory platform promises included a set of crossed fingers – we’ll deliver the promises of more cash only if we don’t need to cut spending – that likely sent a second uncomfortable chill up the spines of civil servants everywhere.

Safe to vote for an opposition politician and given plenty of reasons to do so.

Sweet, eh?

Regardless of what happens on Tuesday, regardless of how many seats the New Democrat win and regardless of whether they form the opposition or not,  this election marks a shift in provincial politics.

The Tories got a big scare. 

The New Democrats got a big boost.

What happens next is what matters. 

At age 68, New Democrat leader Lorraine Michael is likely to step down before 2015.  The party’s new energy will drive more interest in the job and the party than usual. They will get lots of media coverage and the chance to showcase their new energy for the entire province.

The new leader and the New Democrats already have genuine new energy.  They will stand in stark contrast to the Conservatives.

The Tories will face a leadership fight delayed from Williams’ departure. Kathy Dunderdale was only supposed to stay for a while.  Now she plans to stick around for two terms.  The oldest person ever elected Premier plans to hang on until she is the second oldest person to retire from the job. 

That may cause tension within the caucus, especially if there are other potential leaders who put their ambitions aside for what they thought was a short time. 

Political pressures coming out of the election or internal divisions from tough governing choices could add other tensions.

The party platform is already starved of new ideas.  It is in autopilot.

And then there are the other Tories who planned to retire but who hung on for the good of the party through one more election.  They will go sooner rather than later.

And so the Tories will face by-elections.

Those by-elections will not be as easy as they used to be.

Political parties in Newfoundland and Labrador aren’t good at refreshing themselves while they are in power.  Then tend to coast rather than move off in a genuinely new direction that aligns with voter moods.

The inevitable result is that they get tossed.

The only reason political parties last as long as they do – 17 years for the Tories the first time, 14 years for the Liberals the second time – is that the other guys never get their act together.

That might be changing.

Whom they gods would destroy, they first make proud.

- srbp -

The Folly of Linear Thinking #nlpoli

New Brunswick’s David Campbell has an interesting post about the folly of believing that things go in straight lines.

Like say, oil prices have been going up for a while now and will only go up in the future.

And therefore a hugely expensive electricity project makes sense because oil surely will always cost way more than it does now on a go forward basis.

Really it’s just a variation on part of the logic behind the 1969 Churchill Falls contract and the lack of an escalator clause.  If you can’t imagine the price of something going in one direction, you’ll bet on things going the other way.

It’s the same as assuming that oil prices will always be higher than a certain amount – say US$50  - and pegging extra cash to that number.

There are lots of examples of linear thinking out there: assume the future will look like today.

And it’s usually the best way to make a gigantic mistake.

- srbp -

Tories in hard fight in Sin Jawns seats #nlpoli #nlvotes

The whole race for second place media meme  - bullshit that it always was - masked a very serious battle that’s been going on since the election started between the Conservatives and New Democrats.

You can tell it is serious because the media are starting to report it.

And what they are reporting is stuff like Kathy Dunderdale in a scrum with reporters as she campaigned in St. John’s for some of the Tory candidates who are having a really hard time.

Now Kath couldn’t acknowledge what’s really going on so she blamed on the Liberals.  What’s going on is that all those people who were voting Tory in St. John’s are abandoning the Tory party and heading for the New Democrats.  Since early 2010,  Tory support has dropped 27 percentage points.  Since May, that support has apparently been finding a happy home with the New Democrats.

Your humble e-scribbler thought the local Tories had a tighter grip on their voters provincially than they do.  The signs, though, have been unmistakeable for a week or more and the opinion polls – all conducted up to October 3 – confirm the growing NDP vote in the metro region.

The other big problem the Tories are having is interesting the people who would vote for them to actually get to the polls. Unmotivated Tory voters and the ones that are motivated are voting for someone else.

Ouch.

That just makes the NDP surge all the more problematic for the Tories. Dunderdale tried once again this weekend to encourage people to vote.

There’s a picture of Dunderdale accompanying that CBC story where she’s whining about Liberals, incidentally, with Kathy standing next to St. John’s East candidate Ed Buckingham.   Dunderdale looks like she needs to get out for a few more runs to restore her energy level to the magical new levels she’s supposedly found.

For another clue of the battle going on around Capital City, consider that long-time Tory Doc O’Keefe is out beating the streets for his old Tory buddy Shawn Skinner in St. John’s Centre. Earlier in the week, Doc wasn’t giving any clue he would be hitting the streets for his old pals. By the end of the week the local Tories are announcing that Doc’s coming in to the fight.

All of this is part of the two front war the Tories have been waging.  The other front is for the most part a battle against the Liberals in parts of the province outside the northeast Avalon. 

In a post some of you might have missed, the always insightful labradore used the advance poll turn-outs last week to show how the Tories appear to be deploying their forces.  The fights in St. John’s are heavy enough that the Tories have had to deploy forces they sent in 2007 to wind Liberal seats in rural Newfoundland into their heartland in St. John’s in order to hang on.

- srbp -

Pre-Thanksgiving Traffic #nlpoli #nlvotes

T’was the week before voting and all through the province everyone was looking forward to a feed of turkey on the weekend.

And before they headed off for the feed, they took the time during the week to read these posts, making them the 10 most-read posts at ye olde e-scribbles:

1. Telelink releases campaigns only independent poll  (As it turned out, Environics released one later in the week)
2. Muskrat Falls support plummets:  poll
3. What if they gave an election and nobody came?
4. Environics releases second indy poll of the campaign
5. The Imaginary Centre of an Imaginary Universe
6. The Revolutionary Years
7. The Placeholder Election Revisited
8. Do debates matter?  Part Deux and The Mug’s Game
9. CBC torques poll coverage
10. Political Advertising

- srbp -

If La Romaine isn’t profitable… #nlpoli #nlvotes

An economics professor at l’Universite d’Ottawa thinks Hydro-Quebec’s La Romaine project isn’t profitable at the projected sale price to Vermont of 5.8 cents per kilowatt hour when the electricity will cost 6.4 cents per kwh to produce.

Hydro-Quebec’s retort is that electricity prices will go up.

Sounds familiar.

Jean-Thomas Bernard also doubts HQ’s cost of 6.4 cents per kwh.  The company attributes the drop in cost of production to better interest rates resulting from loan guarantees.  The initial estimate was 10 cents per kwh.  Bernard says the guarantees and interest rate savings would only shave half a cent off the cost.

HQ needs to follow Nalcor’s example.  Rather than sell electricity from La Romaine cheaply to domestic and export consumers,  HQ should force the Quebec ratepayers to carry the full cost of the entire project and sell discount power only on the export market.

- srbp -

Advance voting and other campaign tidbits #nlpoli #nlvotes

If you want to get a good sense of what the advance poll turnout from Tuesday likely means in campaign terms, wander over to labradore.

In the current election, six of the ten highest advance-vote districts were in metro St. John's. In 2007, only three were. The top ten, interestingly enough, were almost all seats heavily targeted by Danny Williams-Government for pickup or hold, …

This may mean that the Tories and NDP are pumping GOTV resources into St. John's, and that the Tories are doing so at the expense of the formerly strenuous GOTV efforts in potential rural battleground districts in the Williams-era general and by-elections.

Yes, folks that would be the real story of the election which the conventional media have decided to avoid in favour of focusing on horseracing.

Luke, Luke, I gotta tell ya, at the end of the day, I am your father on a go forward basis

Speaking of the conventional media, the province’s largest circulation daily newspaper decided to engage in some public editorial self manipulation of the sort that used to grace the editorial pages of the old Spindependent. 

The subject is a poll the Telly commissioned from the same gang that do the provincial government’s quarterly political polling.

What can be said is that it is the broadest and most detailed snapshot in time of the current campaign, commissioned by an independent media outlet.

We can only look forward with bated breath to what will follow in the days ahead.

The Telly-torialist couldn’t resist getting in a little pre-emptive disclaimer at potential critics:

The poll will be received with the usual sniping — undoubtedly by those who have a larger problem with what the results spell out than what the critics honestly have with the methodology.

Nice thought but the People’s Paper is refusing to release any information that would let someone have a look at the poll methodology.

Your humble e-scribbler went asking a few questions on Thursday only to have senior management at the paper issue an immediate and complete ban preventing all Telly editors and staff from discussing any aspects of the poll whatsoever with anyone outside the paper.

Full stop.

After all those years of bitching about the provincial government’s unnatural desire for keeping polls secret, the Telly has finally caved in and joined the secrecy society. Governments across the land will rejoice that one newspaper has finally come over to the dark side of freedom from information.

What a shame too, because the Telly finally had some interesting information, or so it seemed out beyond the stuff that graced the front page of the Thursday issue.

Ah well, we’ll just have to sit back and see if the “broad-ranging public opinion poll with a large sample size conducted by an experienced polling company” lives up to that company’s usual accuracy.

And a large double-double to go…

Politicians’ handlers need to look for what the camera sees when their charge decides to scrum.

In this case, they should have looked at what CBC saw and then used to illustrate a story in which Liberal leader Kevin Aylward claims his party has a shot at up to 30 seats in the election. 

The elderly gentleman and the fellow apparently representing the local hit-man’s benevolent association don’t exactly convey that sense of energy and enthusiasm  - let alone numbers - to back up Aylward’s claim.

The one thing that does stand out nicely is the sign advertising real fruit smoothies for a buck 99.

Was it a campaign swing or a Tim’s run?

He wrote the book…literally

Check out a fine post on the CBC election website by Doug Letto called “Oil, wealth and caution at the finish line”.

Letto’s covered local politics for the better part of 25 years.  He’s forgotten more about politics than most reporters in the province will ever know. Plus, when it comes to the province’s history of economic development and politics, Doug’s written not one but two fine books.

Chocolate bars and rubbers boots looks at economic development during the Smallwood years. Run! is Doug’s account of the 1999 general election.

- srbp -

The Placeholder Election Revisited #nlpoli #nlvotes

Kathy Dunderdale told reporters on Wednesday she plans to seek re-election in 2015.

Interesting that Dunderdale felt the need to volunteer that thought.  It must be an issue people are raising.  Otherwise, there’d be no real reason to bring it up.

Of course, Brian Tobin insisted in 1999 he’d serve out a full term even though a great many people knew he had ambitions in Ottawa when and if Jean Chretien packed it in.

Danny Williams was going to run for a third term at one point as well.

If all goes as it seems right now, Kathy Dunderdale will become not just the first woman elected premier in this province but the oldest person ever elected to the office since Confederation.

Period.

Full stop.

If she actually hangs on for another seven years and leaves in 2018 (right before the Muskrat Falls bills hit your mailbox) she will be the second oldest person to leave the job since Confederation.  She’ll be about 67 years old.

Dunderdale would have to go for another term in 2019 to beat Joe Smallwood who left his fingernail marks on the office door in 1972 when people finally managed to drag him out kicking and screaming.

Odd she raised the issue of two terms.

Odd indeed.

And as for her statement about sticking around, let’s take that one with a grain of salt as well.

After all, some people believed Danny would be running this time around, didn’t they?

Kathy will be gone before 2015.

Lorraine Michael will be gone.

And first out the door will be Kevin Aylward.

All three current party leaders won’t be in their current jobs in 2015.

- srbp -

Political Advertising #nlvotes #nlpoli

In the first of a two parter, John Sides (via The Monkey Cage) tosses out some observations on the impact of election advertising.

This is relevant to the current general election. 

Consider, for example, his first point that the value of advertising depends on whether one is the incumbent or the challenger;

When voters do not know much about candidates, their opinions will be weak or even nonexistent.  Advertisements supporting or opposing unfamiliar candidates have the potential to be persuasive.

Notice the very low level of advertising of any kind in this election.  Since the two opposition parties are less well known than the incumbents, it doesn’t make much sense that they aren’t trying to make themselves known to voters through a variety of means, including election advertising.

Some individual campaigns – like John Noseworthy in Signal Hill Quidi Vidi – are doing some radio spots.  Overall, though, the amount of advertising done by the parties themselves seems to be almost non-existent.

Maybe the perception isn’t real.  Maybe your humble e-scribbler is missing something.  Maybe there is a ton and a half of advertising.

Anyone have any specific observations on the current campaign?

- srbp -

Environics releases second indy poll of campaign #nlpoli #nlvotes

The second independent poll of the provincial campaign – this time by Environics for the Canadian Press  -  turns up some interesting numbers.

You’ll find them below, in a table with the other recent polls results, all put on the same basis as a percentage of total responses.

Two things to notice from Environics compared to either MQO, CRA or Telelink:

First, Environics tells you how they conducted the survey and warned about extrapolating these numbers to the population.

“The non-random nature of online polling makes it impossible to determine the statistical accuracy of how the poll reflects the opinions of the general population.”

Second, they present their figures with all the relevant responses included.  Removing one of the valid response categories – the undecideds – distorts the poll results in a way that can be highly misleading. 

In the past, CRA polls have reported an increase in Conservative support when their poll actually showed a decrease.

In the table below, SRBP recalculated the numbers for MQO and CRA to show percentages of all reported responses, including undecideds.

	CRA	MQO	MQO	NTV	ENV
	Aug	S 20	S 30	Oct 3	Oct 5
PCP	40	42	44	35	38
LIB	16	16	11	08	09
NDP	18	23	27	15	22
UND	26	20	18	42	30
MoE	4.9	4.9	4.5	4.3	-

The Big Story isn’t in these polls

While lots of people will focus on the decline in the Liberal polling numbers and the apparent climb of the NDP during the election, the more dramatic drop has been in the Conservative numbers since early 2010.

That orange line is the share of eligible votes the Tories got in the 2007 general election.

The blue line is the Progressive Conservative party choice number in every CRA quarterly poll from November 2007 until the most recent one in August 2011.  The number is shown as a share of all responses, not as a share of decideds.

Look closely.

The Tories peaked at 67%, according to CRA, in early 2010'.  Since then, it’s been a jagged ride downhill.  From May 2011, the drop has been precipitous, settling out at 40% in August 2011.

While the other polls show different numbers, they are all within the margin of error for the polls.

What does that mean for the Tories?

Well, when you look at real numbers it gets pretty easy to see why the Old Man skedaddled last fall in an unholy rush.

If you consider the discrepancies between CRA’s polling numbers and the 2007 actual voting result, the Tories might have problems getting their vote to the polls.  Even if you allow that the 27 percentage points the Tories have dropped since early 2010 was all Danny-loving over-reporting by super enthusiastic respondents who weren’t real Tories anyway, the Tories would have to get all their voters from 2007 to the polls and then some to avoid losing any seats at all.

That’s something noted here early on in the campaign and it still stands.  The Tories will likely lose seats.

The Murky Shifts

The variation in the Liberal and New Democratic Party numbers looks dramatic, even if you just look at the table above.

Just remember, however, that the variation in the Liberal result in all these polls done since September 19 is within twice the margin of error for the polls. That means we likely haven’t seen any shifts of any significance.

The Liberal number from Telelink could wind up being like their Liberal number in 2007: roughly half what it wound up being as a share of eligible voters once all the ballots had been counted. Averaging the Liberal result of the first four polls (excluding Environics) gives you a number close to the 2007 actual.

The Wild Card

The NDP results show a wider range of variation.  The four polls – excluding Environics -  range from a low of 15 to a high of 27, with the high and low actually coming from polls done within days of each other.  The average of the four is 21%.  That is three times what the NDP were polling in early 2011.

Anecdotally, it seems that NDP support is focused in St. John’s and one or two districts outside Capital City. The climb in NDP support appears to be related to the drop in Tory support.  That’s not surprising in St. John’s where the NDP and Tories are closely connected and where the major shifts are likely occurring.

In some respects that shift from Tory to NDP in St. John’s is the other half of the Big Story of this election.  The Race for Second Place remains an imaginary tale at worst, and a triviality at best.

Even moreso than with the Liberals, the NDP chances of picking up seats on October 11 depends on how effectively they can get their vote out.  That’s especially true in St. John’s where the Tories tend to rack up sizeable majorities.

- srbp -

Note:  CRA and the telegram have a new poll due Thursday.  Rumour has it that MQO is in the field again and may release another poll later this week or on Monday.

Searching for Rescue #nlpoli #nlvotes

Tory boss Kathy Dunderdale and Grit boss Kevin Aylward both think that the provincial government should investigate search and rescue response times around the province and then push Ottawa to spend more.

Classic provincial politician’s political play:  go on a crusade to get the feds to pay.

It’s also a classic for the party leaders in this provincial election campaign to agree on the need to spend provincial cash on federal stuff. 

You may recall that Kathy Dunderdale was the first one to pledge to spend provincial tax dollars to keep a co-ordination centre running so that former Tory candidate Merv Wiseman and his colleagues could work in Sin Jawns some more.

Now that Merv is a provincial Liberal candidate, the Liberals think that’s the way to go as well.

- srbp -

What if they gave an election and nobody came? #nlvotes #nlpoli

Next Tuesday, the face of the province’s House of Assembly likely won’t change very much at all.

The new premier will take office following an election with what is on track to be a record low turn-out.

That’s got nothing to do with public opinion.  It’s got everything to do with the way the politicians re-engineered the law governing provincial elections in a string of changes made after 2003.

For starters, how long does an election campaign have to be? 

Well, according to the Elections Act, 1991, there must be a minimum of 21 days between the day the House is dissolved and voting day.  Historically, incumbent parties liked to call elections with the shortest possible campaign time.  But some elections have gone on for almost a month.

After 2003, the provincial Conservatives introduced changes that set voting day as the second Tuesday in October.  They could have the official campaign period before that for as many days as they’d like.  In 2011, they called it so that there was the minimum time to campaign allowed by law.

But that doesn’t mean there is actually 21 days of activity.

When the Tories picked the second Tuesday in October as their preferred date, they didn’t pick by accident.  They picked it so that voting day would always be right after the thanksgiving day weekend.

Clever boys and girls are they.  That automatically reduces the  period during which voters are paying attention to the campaign by at least three days.  No party is going to campaign on the holiday weekend, for fear of pissing off voters.  And voters who are travelling around to visit relatives aren’t going to be thinking much about politics as they sleep off a big scoff.

Take that 21 and knock off three.

We are left with 18 days.

Advanced voting takes place a week before the final day.  Lop off four more days.

That leaves you with a functional campaign period of just 14 days.

The election financing rules make it illegal for an individual candidate to raise funds before the election is called.  That makes it pretty tough for a candidate in a district to raise local cash for his or her own local campaign. They have to rely on the party.

For someone who might want to run as an independent candidate, it’s impossible.  Well, impossible unless you made millions on the lottery or by flipping your cable company.  For the average schmuck in the street, the rules are stacked against you.

To see how it works in practice, don’t look at the Liberals who barely tried over the past four years.   Look instead at the NDP to find out how those rules work.  Party president Dale Kirby told Randy Simms a few whoppers on Tuesday about fundraising.  He claimed they only had money for a few ordinary people.  That bit was true. 

The fib was the bit he left out:  the NDP’s major bankroll comes from one union.  The single largest contribution of anyone, to any party, bar none.

Kirby also left out the fact the NDP use the House of Assembly and the government money that goes with it, just like all parties do for the odd staffer here and there.

But a whole campaign, all year?  Only the incumbents can do that.  And rake in cash the provincial Conservatives have, especially from people who do business with the government.  The Tories are bankrolled by Big Oil,  the other Dale Kirby whopper.  The province’s construction industry chucks the most grease on the wheels of the governing party’s machinery.

Incumbents flush with cash, others starved of cash, and election rules that make it very hard for anyone who doesn’t already have a high profile from having been in office already to try and get known in a mere two weeks.

But the real loser in all this is the voter.  People don’t pay a great deal of attention to politics at the best of times.  They have other things in their lives. 

Election campaigns, and all the noise and commotion that goes with them are the means by which parties get their attention.  Elections are supposed to be when voters get to make choices based on information.

The only problem is that provincial elections in Newfoundland and Labrador are designed not to engage voters.  They don’t give anyone enough time to get involved.

And this time around they certainly don’t give much chance for the parties to send information around and canvass for votes.  A week before polling day and your humble e-scribbler has received exactly nothing in the mail from either of the three parties.  One candidate – the Tory – showed up on the doorstep last week for the first time since he first got elected.  He had a brochure that said little.

The Tory obviously knew shag all about Muskrat Falls than the bullshit he’d been told to say and had nothing to offer other than that. The Liberal hit the doorstep on Tuesday night.  No sign of the Dipper and odds are neither he nor a piece of literature will show up between now and the last day to vote.

One of the most common complaints this election is that people don’t know who their candidates are.  One voter-friend of the scribbler in St. John’s East was surprised to discover who the incumbent was in his district. 

Ditto for a few people in Virginia Waters who were shocked to know their member of the House before the writ dropped was none other than Kathy Dunderdale.

The other candidates across St. John’s are unknown, for the most part and none of them have sufficient time to get their message to voters before the first votes are cast.  And that’s even if you allowed them a full bank account and all their prep done so they could start canvassing on the first official day of the election.

Aside from structural impediments to campaigning that all three parties have endorsed over time, the three political parties have all decided to avoid creating any sense of interest or excitement in the electorate this time around. 

Advertising appears to be at an all-time low volume.  The parties have a social media presence.  But the three parties in this province seem to use it as a token of their hipness rather than as the tool for voter activation that it can be.  .

Of course, for the incumbents – especially the Tories - that’s a useful strategy.

For the opposition parties, it would be idiotic.  Well, it would be if we started from the premise that the opposition parties want to unseat the government party.  Sure they say the words about what they’d do if they formed government, but the opposition political parties seem to think they are incumbents too.  Neither the Liberals nor the NDP have done anything meaningful that would risk them winning the election and taking over government. They both seem to be contented with things as they are.

It’s an old refrain around here that the three parties have essentially the same platform and that they all agree the Tories should be re-elected.

The election has turned out to be proof of it.

And all that is the reason Kathy Dunderdale will take off based on one of the lowest, if not the record lowest turn-outs in provincial history.

You’d almost think they wanted it that way.

 

- srbp -

Muskrat Falls support plummets: poll #nlvotes #nlpoli

Despite a massive marketing effort by the provincial Conservatives and the provincial government’s energy corporation, Nalcor, a new poll by NTV/Telelink shows a dramatic drop in support for the provincial Conservatives’ Muskrat Falls project.

In its most recent poll of eligible voters in Newfoundland and Labrador, NTV/Telelink found that 42% of respondents supported the project compared to 71% in an NTV/Telelink poll conducted in February.

Opposition to the project went from six percent  in February to 22% in October.

Undecided went from 24% to 36%.

The margin of error for the poll is 4.2%.

The more people know about Muskrat Falls, the less they like it.

- srbp -

The Mug's Game

Trying to predict seat counts based on a limited number of publicly available polls is - as PEI demonstrates - a mug's game, at best.

The final tally:  22 Liberals and five Conservatives, compared to 24 Grits,  two Tories and one vacancy at dissolution.

Some pundits had the Liberals getting 26 seats. 

-srbp -

Telelink releases campaign’s only independent poll #nlvotes #nlpoli

NTV and Telelink released the only independent poll of the campaign on Monday and with a week to go in the 2011 general election, things are on track for a historic election.

For starters, let’s look at the Telelink party support numbers:

• PCP 35%
• NDP 15%
• LIB    08%
• UND 42%

These numbers are ones you can trust for accuracy and reliability.  In fact, once you read along here and look at 2007 you’ll understand the real reason why CRA and other numbers are pure crap on a cracker.

Next, let’s take a look at the 2007 poll numbers.

In 2007, Telelink’s election poll turned out these numbers:

• PCP 42%
• LIB    08%
• NDP 3.5%
• UND 31.7%

The actual poll results on election night, as a share of eligible voters was:

• PCP  42%
• LIB    13%
• NDP  05%
• DNV  38%

By comparison, CRA’s August 2007 poll (adjusted to show  percent of all responses) was:

• PCP  62%
• LIB    14%
• NDP  06%
• UND  18%

All opinion polls in this province survey eligible voters. The polling firms don’t report their figures that way.  They make it seem like they are talking about share of popular vote. But if you look at it, they simply talk to anyone eligible to vote.  That means you have to compare their poll percentages to the share of eligible votes a party got on voting day.

Incidentally, if you looked at the popular vote numbers and the ones CRA actually reported (as a percentage of decideds) their accuracy doesn’t get any better.

So compared to CRA, Telelink was almost spot on for everything, except the Liberal vote.  

And with all that in mind, let’s look at what we can see in 2011.

Record Low Turnout

For starters, we can expect a record low turn-out at the polls beating the previous record set in 2007.  Given the way the Telelink numbers compared to actual then, we could be looking at half the population not bothering to get out to vote.

In patronage-addled political cultures like Newfoundland and Labrador, voting is one of the ways people pay the patron back for his benevolence. They also need to turn out to vote to show their continued loyalty to the Boss or to signal their allegiance to a new one.

Not surprisingly, in the 18 elections from 1949 to 2007, turnout was above 69% in all but three. Turnout in 1949 was 95%.

So in years when the turn-out was low, you have to wonder what the heck was on the go.  What do 1956, 1966 and 2007 have in common with 2011?  One thing they don’t have in common is overwhelming satisfaction with the party in power at the moment.

Tory support high but dropping

Conservative support sits at 35% and that’s likely where it will hold.  What’s most interesting over the past four years is the way even CRA polls have picked up a decline in Tory support.  When you take out the misleading twist of giving the numbers as a share of decideds, the Tory support has dropped dramatically since early 2010.

The Race for Second Place and Other Bullshit

While plenty of people in 2011 will be talking about the low Liberal number in the Telelink poll, you already know it’s exactly the same number the Liberals turned up the last time out in the Telelink poll.

On voting day in 2007, the actual Liberal share of eligible vote turned out to be almost double that number.  And as a share of popular vote, the Liberals turned out three times what turned up in the polls. They held three seats at the end of the night and picked up another one later on.

The polls don’t tell the story and the media reports on those polls sure don’t tell the real story.

You can also see that when you consider that the NDP polling number in 2011 (15% to 18%) is roughly what the party had in the mid-1980s.  They had two seats.

The final seat count will depend very much on what happen  on the ground this week. 

The Conservatives have undoubtedly dumped as many bodies as they can into the seats where they are under pressure.  Some of those seats are in St. John’s and others are spread across the island and into Labrador.

If the Liberals and New Democrats learned anything from the last time, they are pushing back hard as well.

There is no race for second place.  That’s a fiction invented by the media.  The real election race is being played out in those pressured seats – as many as a dozen or so – across the province.  The Liberals pose the bigger threat to the Tories because they are potentially viable in more seats.  That’s just a function of the electoral math.

What you will see Tory partisans doing is pushing hard on the theme that the Liberal Party support is collapsing.  They want people  - especially Liberal campaign workers -  to become demoralised and stay home. 

The Tories are getting plenty of help from Liberal gaffes.  They are also getting help from the news media who report fiction – like the race for second place or the importance of debates - as if it was fact.

What is really happening and what the news media often report are two very different things. 

And what happens next week after all the voting is done, well that won’t look much like the media projections to date and it may well be a lot less dramatic than people are assuming.

- srbp -

The Revolutionary Years

For those who loved the first volume of Boulder Publication’s compilation of Ray Guy columns, make sure you get Ray Guy:  the Revolutionary Years.

The first volume ended in 1971 just at the tail end of Joe Smallwood’s reign.  This one picks up in 1971, carries through the tumult of Sally’s Cove and then rocks through the 1970s, Come by Chance, the Marystown Shipyard, offshore oil, Baie d’Espoir, the Lower Churchill, John Crosbie, fuddle duddle, Fintan Aylward, Ed Roberts and all.

Get it now at your local bookstore or order online from Boulder. It’s a better use for 20 bucks than another compilation of columns by a far less talented writer at least one of which was cribbed from the Globe and Mail.

- srbp -

Do debates matter? Part Deux #nlvotes #nlpoli

Last week ended with a wonderful bit of insight into where televised political debates figure into an election campaign.

Before you go any farther into this post just stop for a second and think of all the media chatter last week about the debate, what the strategies were supposed to be and then what the fall-out was after the whole thing was over.

Now with that load of crap firmly in front of your mind’s eye, look at some of the results from Market Quest Omnifacts’ poll released last week.  look at the bit about the election.

Only one third of those polled actually watched the debate.  Some news media played up the fact that 36% thought Kathy won, 22% picked Lorraine and some small percentage thought Kevin Aylward came out on top. The rest thought no one came out on top.

What likely slid by most people was the fact that only about one third of those polled actually watched the debates at all.  MQO then presented the picks as if 100% watched. 

That’s a fine an example as you can get of how some pollsters mislead people when they ignore the undecideds in their poll results on party choice and tell you only what the decideds said.

You see, two thirds of those polled had something better to do than watch the debates.

That’s the real story for that question:  66% were combing their armpit hair or something else that was more pressing than listening to the province’s three party leaders discuss what they’d do if they got the chance to run the province for the next four years.

A mere 12% of those polled thought Dunderdale won the debate.  Lorraine impressed the bejesus out of seven percent and Kevin picked up two percent of respondents.

13% thought neither of them won.

The debate itself was not some sort of major event for most people in the province. As a result, the debate itself was just one more thing they might see as part of the campaign’s communications alongside print ads, a brochure,  radio and TV spots and stuff that is cropping up on social media.

You’d have to dig into some hard numbers on audience share for the broadcast to get a better sense of how the debate stacks up in impact compared to the others.  Based on experience, your humble e-scribbler would say the debate itself mattered a lot less than other stuff including, incidentally, the media hype, torque, spin and general bullshit that surrounded it.

Include in that general bullshit the way Nalcor’s pollster reported the results:

When asked about the leaders’ debate, 34 per cent of those polled said they watched the televised leaders’ debate on Wednesday, September 28. Of those respondents who watched the debate, 36 per cent felt Kathy Dunderdale won the debate, while Lorraine Michael was seen as the winner by 22 per cent, and six per cent said Kevin Aylward came out on top. The remainder of respondents said there was no clear winner of the debate.

That got into news stories almost word for word.  Here’s the way the Telly reported it, for example:

Thirty-four per cent of those polled said they watched the televised leaders’ debate on Wednesday. Of those who watched the debate, 36 per cent felt PC Leader Kathy Dunderdale won, while 22 per cent saw NDP Leader Lorraine Michael as the winner, and six per cent said Liberal Leader Kevin Aylward came out on top.

The remainder of respondents said there was no clear winner.

Nothing, as some famous politician once said, could be further from the truth.

But you can bet lots of people last week were misled into believing Kathy Dunderdale emerged the clear winner of the debate last week in the opinion of other ordinary voters.  They’d get that idea as a result of the way the poll results wound up in the news fare.

And that message, carried by the province’s news media as if it were true,  likely had a much bigger impact than Kathy Dunderdale’s comments on the night.

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The Imaginary Centre of an Imaginary Universe #nlvotes #nlpoli

Town and Toronto start with a “T”.

Some Townies can be like some Torontonians sometimes.

Yes, yes.

Settle down.

Hold it down with the other “t” words, like twit, twillick, and twaddle monger. 

You are getting ahead of the story.

Townies, like Torontonians sometimes seems to think that all that matters in the world orbits the tight pucker of their collective arsehole.

The news media in this province are dominated by the townie-based daily crowd.  Lots of things that happen beyond their usual watering holes in the downtown or their homes in the east end of Town can go sailing past them and hence their audience.

If you wanted an example of just how much gets missed, take this media commentary on a recent poll and what it supposedly means.

Like it or not, the bulk of the wealth in this province is in St. John's and that's where parties have the most luck raising cash. The Liberals had money problems long before they started musing about "diverting oil money" to rural areas (presumably at the expense of St. John's), and when Liberal candidate Danny Dumaresque slammed the idea of giving any extra cash to St. John's, the sound you heard (over the collective gasp of the endangered urban Liberals) was the thump of every chequebook in the capital city slamming shut.

A look at the most recent financial statements from the province’s electoral office shows pretty clearly what’s been going on in the province over the past while.

The picture isn’t pretty and it also is nothing like that paragraph would lead you to believe, either.

The provincial Conservatives rake in the lion’s share of the cash compared to all other parties, bar none. Government parties usually do in this province. People like to curry favour.

What’s noticeably different since 2003 compared to previous years is that the companies that give to the “in” party no longer give to the “out” parties.

There’s a reason for that and the reason is more likely related to the attitude the Tories have displayed to political pork and electoral districts than it is to the Liberals alienating the townie money pits.

No one should be surprised if donors quietly got the message that the powers that be would look unfavourably on donations to the other guys, in the same way voters have been told bluntly they needed to vote Blue if they wanted their grandchildren to know what pavement looks like for real instead of just in pictures.

Another noticeable characteristic of the Tory political cash is that it comes primarily from corporate sources, not individuals.

That’s been especially true for the people who have made quite a haul the past four years from the boom in provincial government capital works contracts over the past couple of years.  The construction industry both in the province and on the mainland gave more than $230,000 to the provincial Conservatives in 2010.

The argument in that media commentary is that the Liberals haven’t been able to raise money because they have turned their back on townies.

Now if that were true, then we’d expect to see the New Democrats, who are pretty well all- townie-all-the-time, would have more luck with donations.

Guess again.

The Dippers get lots of small donations from individuals, most of whom live in and around Capital City.

But there isn’t really a lot of cash in their bank accounts.

What’s more,  their biggest single donor is a Toronto-based union that for the past two years dropped 20 large on the NDP in this province.  Before that it was a Washington DC union that ponied up 10K.

That’s because, as much as anything else, political cash is tied to at least three things.

First is incumbency.  You have to be in power or likely to be in power to warrant attention from donors in these parts.  That’s an old connection that the politicos themselves drew decades ago and the  connection has persisted over time.  There are companies all over the province, not just in Sin Jawns

Second is the political culture.  Individuals don’t seem to give much to parties, relatively speaking, over time.  2010 is no exception. Take a look at the analysis by labradore and you can see the extent to which this is true.

And that’s likely because – third – the parties aren’t organized and interested in individuals.  Old habits die very hard and parties like the Liberals and Tories that got used to corporate cash have just kept looking for corporate cash. 

Besides, they, like the NDP, also aren’t built around individual members who actually run the party.  It just wouldn’t occur to them to try and build the party on appealing to individuals to get out an participate.  Even if it did occur to someone, they’d go at it half-heartedly if they went at it at all.

The fundraising problems the Liberals have come from some chronic problems over the last five or six years.  The biggest one is basically a lack of focussed effort.  That’s also what’s caused the lack of general preparedness and the problems in candidate recruiting as well. 

On a local level, in some districts, they are doing quite well and likely will do quite well.  Candidates have been raising money and they have volunteers and a momentum going. There might even be some surprises. That’s all taking place well outside of Sin Jawns, though, and as a result, the details won’t show up in daily media in the province.

Consider that to be the reverse of the NDP where their usual sort of campaign – not much cash or workers – comes across as amazingly gigantic in news reports because it is so close to reporters they can’t see the wider details.

And all that sort of skewed reporting and commentary is pretty much what happens when the frame of reference is the imaginary centre of a largely imaginary universe.

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