Crazy Train Wreck #nlpoli

Premier-in-waiting Frank Coleman was off in Toronto on Monday – reputedly undergoing intensive media training -  and so he wasn’t willing to talk to reporters about anything, least of all the controversy about his views on abortion.

When Bill Barry dropped out of the Conservative leadership on Thursday, Coleman became the leader by default.  The only thing left is for the party insiders figured out when they wanted him in the job.  That’s not a joke.  That’s pretty much what Coleman said last week after Barry bailed.

Other than that, Coleman issued yet another official statement rather than talk to people.  And when controversy erupted about his support of the province’s Right to Life group, Coleman issued another statement.

Memorial University political scientist Stephen Tomblin offered CBC some scathing comments on Monday about Coleman’s performance thus far.

Budget basics: Dealing with the Debt #nlpoli

Public sector pensions in Newfoundland and Labrador are underfunded.  There’s not enough money in the fund account to cover all the likely money they’d have to pay out to people when they retire.

But make no mistake, the province’s public sector pensioners are not in any real danger of losing their pensions as a result.  That’s because the Pension Fund Act guarantees that the provincial government will make up any difference between the money owed to pensioners annually and the money available from the fund.  Unless some provincial government in the years ahead changes the law governing the pensions, people will get the money and benefits they’ve been promised.

The provincial government isn’t going to default on pensions any more than they are likely to take the completely irresponsible advice some might give them to change all the plans immediately - unilaterally if necessary - to make them defined contribution plans instead of defined benefit plans.

It’s important that people remember that because there is a concerted effort going on at the moment to mislead people about public sector spending generally, and pensions in particular.

Legitimacy and Credibility #nlpoli

In the crude, modern way of putting things, shit got real for Premier-in-waiting Frank Coleman on Friday.

The Telegram’s James McLeod tweeted Coleman’s response to a question about whether Coleman planned to do this year what he normally does on Good Friday and participate in the anti-abortion march in Corner Brook.

Here’s what McLeod tweeted:

And then Twitter exploded.

The Further Adventures of Premier Peek-a-boo #nlpoli

Frank Coleman didn’t speak to reporters about the Conservative Party by-election loss in Virginia Waters.

Someone wrote up a prepared statement and sent it to reporters later on.

The Western Star caught up with Frank Coleman on Thursday after Bill Barry bailed on the rigged Conservative leadership election.  Barry said the process was “disingenuous”.

Coleman begged off any detailed comments

“So, I’m just trying to figure this out myself,” said Coleman, who noted he’d barely had time to discuss it with his team.
Coleman said his communications co-ordinator would be issuing a media release later in today.

Coleman doesn’t have something substantive ready to say.

Instead, someone writes up some comments for Coleman.

Is this a pattern yet?

-srbp-

Man of the People update:

A paraphrase of Coleman's comments, offered by an e-mail wag:  "When asked about the withdrawal of his only competitor, his friend, and neighbour, Frank Coleman told his local newspaper that he'd have his communications director send them a prepared statement."

The Fix Was In #nlpoli

Bill Barry, in the Western Star, on the Conservative leadership show he quit on Thursday:

“I just chose to recognize that the leader has been selected by the party insiders.”

…

“But if they’re going to do that, why have a convention?” he asked. “If the determination is going be made before the debate happens, and before an event happens and people are going to all head in one particular direction, why go through the process? It seems disingenuous to me.

Read the rest of Barry’s comments in the Western Star exclusive.

-srbp-

Experience still counts #nlpoli

Now that Frank Coleman is the de facto leader of the provincial Conservative party, there’s no reason why Coleman can’t be in the Premier’s Office with his new cabinet in place when the House of Assembly resumes its current sitting in early May.

Absolutely no reason whatsoever.

Coleman can appoint Tom Marshall as the deputy Premier or leave whomever Coleman appoints as Government House leader to stand in for him until Coleman can get a seat in the legislature.

It’s really simple.

And when the budget is done,  Coleman can head down to Government House and ask the Lieutenant Governor to issue a writ for a provincial general election to be held by the end of June.

There is no reason for Coleman to delay going to the voters to ask them for a mandate of his own to govern the province as Premier.

Pearl Necklace #nlpoli

Mount Pearl is alive with rumours this week that Steve Kent is trying to cross the floor (back) to the Liberals.

Kent’s open dispute with the education minister Clyde Jackman over school re-organization in the bedroom city seems to have been the catalyst for the flurry of rumours.

Now it could all be nothing, except for the fact that Kent’s fellow Mount Pearlers…Pearlites…Pearlies…whatever … know that the former child mayor has a reputation for changing his political affiliations when it suits.

How not to bolster public confidence: the umpteenth Nalcor edition #nlpoli

The folks at Nalcor held a media briefing at 11:00 AM on Tuesday.  it was supposed to be about the release of the independent engineer’s review of Muskrat Falls done as part of the federal loan guarantee.

You may recall this was part of some great confusion a few months ago when the provincial energy department answered an access to information request by saying they didn’t have a copy of the report only to have it emerge that Nalcor had had the report since the previous November and briefed at least a couple of cabinet ministers on it in the meantime.

That led to a bizarro series of telephone conversations between energy minister Derek Dalley and the Telegram’s James McLeod that just added to the sense that Dalley  - among others – had no idea what was going on in the world. Later on the provincial government announced they were creating yet another form of Nalcor oversight regime all built around informing the public. That turned out to be a whole lot of nothing at all and, to cap it off, Nalcor missed its commitment to issue a financial update at the end of the last fiscal year. (March 31)

Not a very good way to bolster public confidence in a company after the Nalcor-induced blackouts in January.

The Virginia Waters Come-Back Myth #nlpoli

Danny Williams said it.

Tom Marshall said it.

In the Virginia Waters by-election the Conservatives were trailing by 15 percentage points and managed to come back and tie it up in the matter of a couple of weeks.

Marshall embellished the story in his most recent interview with David Cochrane.  Supposedly the Conservatives were trailing from the start and some unknown people expected the Conservatives to lose the Virginia Waters by-election.

The Conservatives claim they came from behind to tie it up but there is no objective evidence that the claim is true.

Budget Basics: Unfunded Pension and Benefits Liabilities #nlpoli

While the provincial budget for 2014 was all about spending government money, the budget speech did raise one issue that the provincial government appears intent on cutting dramatically.

A key component of the province’s net debt relates to unfunded pension and other post-retirement liabilities. Despite an investment of more than $3.6 billion, the liabilities have continued to grow. As of March 31, 2013, they accounted for 67 per cent of net debt. By 2016-17, they will account for 85 per cent of net debt – almost $9 billion.

The provincial government has been talking about the unfunded pension and benefits liabilities for a couple of years now.  It’s a hot issue among business groups like the employers’ council or the Canadian Federation of Independent Business. 

As regular readers know, the board of trade is keen to deal with the unfunded liability, too, even if the president or whoever wrote her column in last week’s Saturday Telegram don’t appear to understand what it is all about.

For whatever reason, business groups get quite agitated about public sector workers and their pensions.  Other public debt doesn’t get them quite as worked up and, as the board of trade demonstrated quite clearly, there’s a fair bit of misinformation about the unfunded pension liability.

In this second post in the Budget Basic series, let’s take a look at public sector pensions and put them in a wider context.  Misinformation never leads to good public policy but right now, pretty well all the anti-pension commentary is based on some amount of misinformation.

Premier Peek-a-boo #nlpoli

Pretty well every Conservative who is anyone in the province turned up on Wednesday night at Danny Breen’s by-election headquarters.

Every Conservative, that is, except the fellow who is the heir-apparent to the leadership.  Frank Coleman wasn’t anywhere to be seen according to reporters at the headquarters after the polls closed.

It turned out that Coleman had shown up at around 7:00 PM, an hour before the polls closed, looked around for a bit and then left.  Apparently, he had better things to do.  He didn’t speak to reporters about the by-election loss. 

Instead, Coleman sent out a written statement.  If he gets to be Premier, someone wrote on Coleman’s behalf,  Coleman would welcome Breen as a candidate in the next election. 

In ordinary circumstances,  people would likely consider Coleman’s actions to be quite bizarre.  But then again, these are not ordinary circumstances. 

Ripples #nlpoli

The provincial Conservatives lost a crucial by-election in Virginia Waters on Wednesday, but not for lack of effort.  The could not possible have pulled out any more stops to try and win the seat in the last two weeks of the campaign.

Even on polling day the Conservatives mounted a prodigious effort and the last couple of days before the final vote, the Conservatives had every cabinet minister, caucus member, and political staffer doing whatever it took to find every possible vote.

They came close, but the Conservatives lost

And that simple fact will have enormous implications.

Major Muskrat Costs Missing #nlpoli

As of April 4, Nalcor was “still in the process of negotiating and letting some large contracts for the [Muskrat Falls] project.”

That’s the reply the Telegram got from Nalcor about missing the Muskrat financial update the company was supposed to issue at the end of March.

Haven’t got the information yet.

Okay.

Well, that’s a bit troubling in itself, given that Nalcor is supposed to be reporting monthly to the provincial government on project costs.  So if Nalcor is telling the provincial government that sort of information they can tell the people who are paying the bills – the local taxpayers – the same information, without any deletions or omissions.

And if the provincial government had any stones, they would insist that the Nalcor board not deliver any bonuses to the president and the corporation vice presidents until the company sorts out its financial reporting.  Ed, Gil, and Dawn would be spitting out real numbers  pretty damn fast if someone actually held them accountable.

No one should hold their breath waiting for that, of course.  At least, not any time soon.

Anyway, if Nalcor won’t report its costs accurately and on time, here’s a little tidbit to hold you over.

Astaldi is the company that won the tender last year to build the Muskrat Falls dam itself. The company and Nalcor valued the contract last fall at CDN$1.0 billion.

You can see that in the screen capture from Astaldi’s 2013 year-end financial report, released at the end of March.

The company reported the CDN$1.0 billion figure as well in its third quarter report released last November. There’s also a mention of payments on Muskrat Falls that would come before the end of Astaldi’s fiscal year:

Payments expected from Italy (Rome Subway Line C, Milan Subway Line 5) and Canada (Muskrat Falls Hydroelectric Project) are forecast to decrease net debt levels by year end to approx. €800mn [from 896 million]

Lovely stuff.

But hang on.

What’s the exchange rate on the Euro these days? 

Well, friends, if you plug that 822 million Euro valuation Astaldi gave the project into a currency converter you find out that it works out to CDN$1.24 billion, or 24% more than the project’s face value at the time Nalcor announced the tender award last October.

That’s a hefty cost increase in a very short space of time. Now Nalcor has something else to explain besides just why they are tardy – yet again – with their project reporting.

-srbp-

Related:

• Muskrat Falls costs jump by $1.0 billion (December 2013)

Budget basics: debt #nlpoli

Board of trade president Sharon Horan wrote in her Telegram column last weekend that the unfunded pension liability will make up 85% of the provincial government’s debt not to long into the future.  That will be up from the 75% of the public debt it makes today.

There you have proof that even the president of the largest business organization in the province does not understand the first thing about the state of the provincial government’s finances.

Public debt is a really basic idea that you have to know if you want to understand public finance.  And you need to understand public finance if you want to have a useful say in how the government is running things.  That’s what the folks at the board of trade want to do, one would expect.

And yet Horan got it wrong. 

Not a mere technicality.

But dead wrong.

So if the board of trade can bugger up public debt, let’s see if we can walk everyone through the notion in a way that we can all understand.

Electricity “review” a waste of time, money #nlpoli

Now we know why it took the provincial government so long to release the “review” of the provincial electrical system that former Premier Kathy Dunderdale made up off the top of her head when people were trying to take her head off over Nalcor’s giant blackout in January.

The “review” is going to involve nothing more than a description of the existing electrical system and other systems across Canada.

There’s nothing in the request for proposals – not a commission of inquiry (!!!) – that people in the provincial government either don’t know already or should know.

And since this will be just another consultant’s report, the consultant has no legal ability to obtain detailed information the way the public utilities board or a public inquiry could.

There also doesn’t appear to be any provision for a discussion of the regressive, monopoly system the provincial government created in 2012 because Muskrat Falls isn’t the cheapest way to provide electricity for provincial demand.

What’s the point of examining the province’s electricity policy if you don;t actually look critically at the policy and propose alternatives?

Yes, folks, it is a waste of time.  And you know it’s a waste of time because they released word of the request for proposals after normal working hours on Monday.  It’s a new version of “take out the trash”.

-srbp-

Repealing Bill 29 #nlpoli

The Liberals proposed a motion during last week’s private member’s day that the government repeal Bill 29.

Meanwhile, at the Telegram, legislative reporter James McLeod has been waging a one-man crusade to get everyone to stop trying to repeal Bill 29.  Bill 29 actually fixed a few nasty things,  according to McLeod.  For example, rather than force reporters to chase after ministerial briefing notes,  Bill 29 banned release of them outright:

When Bill 29 came along, it created a specific exception to end this game. Now, the government could withhold any document which was “a record created solely for the purpose of briefing a member of the Executive Council with respect to assuming responsibility for a department, secretariat or agency.”

Then there is the matter of requests for information that the bureaucrats think are “frivolous and vexatious.”  The example McLeod uses to endorse that part of the bill is odd.  He filed a request for documents about the cod moratorium.  The Telly dropped the request when they discovered that a couple of days after getting their pile, the government proposed to release the whole pile on the Internet.  That wasn’t a frivolous request, incidentally, but McLeod holds it out as a justification for that bit of Bill 29. 

Horsefeathers #nlpoli

While people have been agitated about comments on Twitter,  the Premier has been dazzling the politicians in the House with his explanation of the marvellous financial position of the provincial government under the Conservative Party.

On Monday, the former finance minister buggered up the amount of dividend that Nalcor will provide thanks to Muskrat Falls.

On Tuesday, he corrected himself and noted he meant all of Nalcor instead of just Muskrat Falls. That just made matters worse, though.  You see,  the Premier’s comments didn’t exactly jive with information one of his colleagues talked about in the House a year or so ago.  That’s not including the fact that much of the money the Premier attributed to Nalcor was actually coming from oil that the people of the province gifted Nalcor with for nothing.

On Wednesday, the Premier went for the hat-trick with a discussion of debt.

Enormous dividends #nlpoli

Back when he was in another cabinet job, Premier Tom Marshall made some comments about dividends from Muskrat Falls.

Let’s take a look at them.

Premier Confusing #nlpoli

Premier Tom Marshall has been in cabinet since 2003.  He’s held pretty well all the big portfolios connected to Muskrat Falls, including natural resources and finance.

He should know details about Muskrat Falls backwards.

That’s why his comments in the House of Assembly on Monday caused such a stir:

Political Parties and Ideology in Newfoundland and Labrador #nlpoli

If you haven’t read it already, flip on over to Drew Brown’s blog coaker’s ghost and check out his post called “much ado about nothing.”

Drew discusses some recent events in local politics and makes two major points:

• There isn’t much of an ideological difference between the Liberal and Conservative parties in Newfoundland and Labrador.
• Maybe this explains why the activists for the parties tend to fight among themselves so aggressively.

There’s more there  - and Drew is always worth your time - but those are the two points to take up here.

Kremlinology 45: Optics 2 #nlpoli

On Monday,  Danny Williams was actively campaigning with Danny Breen in Virginia Waters.

Breen posted this photo to Facebook:

Breen’s campaign is in serious trouble if the Old Man is knocking doors.

-srbp-

Related:

• Kremlinology 44:  Optics

Kremlinology 46: Verb Tense #nlpoli

Premier-in-waiting Frank Coleman, anointed replacement for Danny Williams, turned up with CBC’s David Cochrane to explain to the On Point audience what he is all about.

Cochrane asked him about Danny Williams and the widespread stories about Williams’ support for Coleman’s candidacy.

What happened next is fascinating.

Kremlinology 44: Optics #nlpoli

Danny Williams appeared in Virginia Waters on Saturday  to campaign for Danny Breen, the Conservative candidate in the by-election.

Breen’s campaign wasted no time in pushing out pictures of The Appearance, like the one above, another one showing him with some young fellows out posting Breen campaign signs in the district, or the one below showing him with some volunteers in Breen’s headquarters.

Sharp eyes will notice that the shot of the two Dannys is actually from something else entirely, not the campaign, but that’s neither here nor there.

What is important to notice is that this is the first time the Old Man has turned out publicly for His party since Hisself left the leadership in an unseemly haste in late 2010.

That’s what makes The Appearance stand out. 

The Old Man has been content until now to do his work behind the scenes either directly or through agents.  The fact Hisself is out pressing the flesh among the faithful sends a bunch of potent messages.

The Whizzo Quality Assortment #nlpoli

On the outside, the spring budget for 2014 looks like a delicious assortment of goodies for everyone.  You can tell it is delectable because everyone is shouting for joy and drooling over their good fortune.

There is not a single group who have had their hands out for government money that did not get something. And they are telling anyone who will listen just how happy they are. 

Once you bite into one of sweetmeats in the Conservative Quality Assortment budget,  though, the result might be a wee bit less tasteful.

Talking about Change… #nlpoli

As you recover from what is hopefully the last big storm of the 2014 winter season, cast yourself in the role of Conservative party strategist for a second and think of what you might do.

Just to help you get your head in the right place, let’s go over the situation.

Principle, Parliament, and Money #nlpoli

The House of Assembly unanimously voted in favour of a bill on Tuesday that gives the government permission to spend $2.8 billion as part of next years budget. 

Officially, it is called interim supply.  It’s “interim” because the bill fills in the period between the 2013 budget – the last time the House gave the government permission to spend money – and the 2014 budget bill that will give government permission for the next year.

Incidentally, on that basis, you can expect that the 2014 budget  will be something like $8.4 billion when finance minister Charlene Johnson reads the budget speech in the House on Thursday.

“Permission” is likely not a word you are used to hearing when it comes to the House of Assembly and budgets but in the Westminster legislatures like the one in Newfoundland and Labrador that’s exactly what the House does.  It gives government permission to spend public money.

Will wonders never cease? #nlpoli

As it turned out,  the “robust” oversight of the Muskrat Falls project that everyone was making a big deal about a few weeks ago is  - as your humble e-scribbler suspected – an awful lot less than some thought it would be.

What a surprise.

-srbp-

How do they run things? Budget Lead-Up #nlpoli

Finance minister Charlene Johnson will read the new provincial budget speech on Thursday.

In keeping with the provincial Conservative tradition, though, they’ve been announcing bits and pieces of the budget already.  On Monday, for example, justice minister Darin King announced that the new budget would contain money for 20 new sheriff’s officer to provide court security and new lawyers and staff for the legal aid division. 

Both news releases specifically indicated that the money was from Budget 2014, that is, money that isn’t supposed to be announced until Thursday.  Reporters asked King if the finance minister would have money for these announcements.

Setting the record straight on Meech Lake… again #nlpoli #cdnpoli

There may be nothing new in documents from the federal cabinet in June 1990 about the failure of the Meech Lake Accord. After all, Brian Mulroney and the federal Conservatives attacked Clyde Wells personally for the failure of the Meech Lake Accord.  Mulroney claimed there was a massive conspiracy to frustrate him.

The documents just confirm what we already knew.

But,  in the Canadian Press story about the notes from a cabinet meeting,  there is something new.  It’s a quote from a key player in the drama:

Talk is cheap. #nlpoli

It was only a matter of time before the government that says more and more about less and less figured out that its best mouthpiece was Steve Kent, right, the minister of perpetual self-parody.

No one can talk more while saying little of substance and so it is quite natural that Kent – the ultimate Johnny-Cab minister -  was the centre of attention at a Thursday event announcing something called the Open Government Initiative. He took a microphone at one point and wandered around reading his script.  The effect was far less impressive than that description makes it sound.

He was demonstrating technology that was a couple of decades old to do something that researchers have been doing for almost a century:  ask a group of people to answer a bunch of questions.  There was nothing new in it at all.

The Outsider #nlpoli

Frank Coleman told an audience of reporters and supporters in Corner Brook on Wednesday that he was in the Conservative Party leadership race to win it.

That’s novel, given that most people run in an election with the intention of losing.

There’s very short clip on the Western Star website of Coleman speaking.

Coleman apparently didn’t say very much. Let’s see if that changes over the next few weeks.

-srbp-

Hmmm. That sounds familiar… #nlpoli

Premier Tom Marshall, in the House of Assembly, discussing what the provincial government can and cannot release:

There is nothing in the ATIPP legislation that prevents government, with the exception of some privacy information, from voluntarily releasing information that comes – we release reports all the time. The midwifery report, I think, and the bussing report, those reports were released and we will continue to do so.

Sounds familiar:

There’s nothing in the parts of ATIPPA that cover access to government information that “make it illegal under Bill 29” or any other part of the Act for the provincial cabinet to release information.

Cabinet can hand out an independent audit report, the papers on the FPI prosecution, anything they have on Muskrat Falls, or the recipe for Tom Marshall’s favourite cookies and sleep soundly at night that the release was legal. No one in cabinet will get a fine or go to jail.

-srbp-

Doing it exactly right #nlpoli

No one could have picked a better panel of three people to review the provincial government’s access to information law than the three announced by Premier Tom Marshall on Tuesday.

The panel will be chaired by former premier and retired chief justice Clyde Wells.  The other two panellists will be Doug Letto, a former producer at CBC television, and Jennifer Stoddart,  the federal privacy commissioner from 2003 to 2013.

The terms of reference – included with the release – are comprehensive and will allow the panel to review the operation of the provincial access law in all respects. 

When “different” is “the same” #nlpoli

Only a couple of years ago, national media were writing about all the women running provincial governments across Canada.

No less a pair of authorities as Jeff Simpson and Kathy Dunderdale agreed that politics would be different because all these women were around and, aw shucks, the gals just do things differently from the men.

The experience has proven to be far less than the promise.

The Apology Application #nlpoli

For anyone who thinks it is unusual for the provincial Conservatives to backtrack or apologise, recall, the massive deployment of cabinet ministers to the Straits-White Bay North by-election in the fall of 2009.

Then there’s the who transparency thing.

D’oh! Telegram shags up Muskrat Falls access story #nlpoli

According to a major Telegram story on Monday morning, the provincial government won’t be able to release some information about Muskrat Falls because of the provincial access to information  laws.

There’s only one problem:  the Telegram got the whole thing wrong.

The Insiders #nlpoli

The story of the 2014 provincial Conservative Party leadership contest is a study in politics on its most basic level.

It is a story of those with influence and of those who have less of it or none at all.

It is a story of how politics actually works inside the Conservative Party, instead of how we imagine it.

It is a fascinating story.

Nalcor Oversight #nlpoli

The provincial government will be establishing a committee of senior public servants to co-ordinate information on Muskrat Falls for cabinet.

VOCM faithfully reported Premier Tom Marshall’s comments to reporters outside the House of Assembly.  The people want more, says Tom, so the Conservatives are going to give the public more oversight.  The new committee will receive monthly project updates and quarterly financial updates from Nalcor, according to the VOCM story. The committee will issue an annual report.

All new stuff supposedly.

Except it isn’t.

All hail the Glorious Leader Trope #nlpoli

“Province to deliver on promise of whistleblower law”  read the headline for the CBC’s online story about the provincial government throne speech read Wednesday in the House of Assembly.

About half way down the story,  it says that “Premier Tom Marshall is fighting back  against the perception” that the government he’s been a part of since 2003 is secretive. 

You’ll see the same idea in the Telegram’s story:

In today’s throne speech, Premier Tom Marshall made his most significant signal so far that the government is doing everything possible to be more open and transparent.

Last week, everyone told us that public satisfaction with the Conservative administration went up because of Tom Marshall. Corporate Research Associates certainly credited Marshall with the boost in the news release that covered the release of their poll data. The panel on CBC’s On Point with David Cochrane [March 8]all agreed that Marshall might play a significant role because, after all, he was the guy who boosted that satisfaction number.

What’s interesting about this idea, that Tom Marshall alone did all this, is simply not true.

Silence is the perfect expression of scorn #nlpoli

by JM and EGH

The BBC online news magazine carried an article on March 10 that should be of interest to all those following the Muskrat Falls debate.

“Do massive dams ever make sense?” summarizes the work of researchers at Oxford University.  They studied more than 245 large dams completed between 1934 and 2007. 

A large dam is one with a wall height of more than 15 metres.  Muskrat Falls would meet the study criteria

The researchers found that dams ran 96% over their approved budgets, on average. One Brazilian dam went 240% over budget.  With few exceptions,  the researchers found that the dams were not economically viable.

The Throne Game, updated #nlpoli

“On the outside, Shawn Skinner and John Ottenheimer are still mulling it over, “wrote Des Sullivan last Thursday. “The price tag of running a credible campaign still daunts them; if Frank Coleman confirms his candidacy, both will fold.”

VOCM reported on Monday afternoon that Frank Coleman would make his final decision on Wednesday. CBC’s David Cochrane  reported that same information on Monday evening and added an interesting extra bit of information: unidentified Conservative Party insiders told Cochrane that it is looking less and less likely that Coleman will run.

Cochrane also reported what he and others had been reporting since Monday morning.  Former natural resources minister Shawn Skinner and municipal affairs minister Steve Kent - right showing maturity and judgment - were collecting signatures for their leadership nomination.

Neither would declare they were in the race until, respectively, Thursday and Friday.

Conservatives struggling for candidates #nlpoli

[Includes Hamlet update]

If David Cochrane’s sources are right,  Danny Breen won’t be running for the Conservatives in Virginia Waters after all.

That means that unless the Conservatives come up with an amazing and currently unknown candidate, they will likely not only lose the upcoming by-election but run the risk of coming in third place behind the New Democrats.

Breen has impeccable Conservative credentials.  He’s already well-known having done the impossible: been a strong, solid, and visible performer on St. John’s city council without succumbing to the drama-queen antics of some of his colleagues.

Shawn: Prince of Denmark #nlpoli

The provincial New Democrats have dropped to single digits among respondents to the latest Corporate Research Associates quarterly omnibus poll.*

Other than that everything in the party choice results is the same as it was before Christmas. 

For the Conservatives – up by three points, but well within the margin of error of 4.9% for the unadjusted party support figures – the party has been at the same level in the polls since last May.

The Satisfaction Delusion #nlpoli

You’ll hear Conservatives, Corporate Research Associates, and some commentators play up the fact that public satisfaction with the governing Conservatives has gone up in CRA’s most recent quarterly poll.

That’s wonderful but that poll and a couple of bucks will get you a nice hot coffee at Tim’s.  Other than that,  the satisfaction numbers don”t mean much.

Just to give you a starting point, here are the Conservatives’ satisfaction numbers since the last general election in October 2011.

How did the Old Man work? (Part 1) #nlpoli

The Premier’s Office is a tough place to work.  The demands on everyone in the place are constant.  The implications of what you are dealing with in the office can affect one person or the whole province but more often than not the consequences will be dramatic.

As much as we’ve had some insight into the Conservative administration over the past couple of weeks and the past couple of posts, testimony at the Cameron Inquiry gave us some insight into how things worked during Danny Williams’ time in the Premier’s Office.

Williams appeared before the Inquiry on October 28 and both his chief of staff and communications director appeared as well.

How do they work, exactly? #nlpoli

As laughable as it is for the Premier’s Office to insist former Premier Kathy Dunderdale received only 46 e-mails in a single week and sent none, there are some other things in this little episode that are worth noticing.

Put ‘em all together with other information and you might have something interesting.  Not necessarily huge, but interesting and revealing.

How did she work, exactly? #nlpoli

How odd that the Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador – arguably the busiest job in the province, bar none -  received only 46 e-mails in a one week period in January.

And how extremely odd that none them – apparently  - came from any of her staff, senior public servants, cabinet ministers or other politicians.

And how completely bizarre that in that same period the Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador didn’t send a single e-mail of her own to anyone about anything.

Access to Information - some misunderstandings #nlpoli

A tale out of Ottawa reveals the extent to which access to information problems crop up in lots of places.

CBC News asked for a copy of a memo from the commander of the Canadian Army about leaks of information within the army.  CBC apparently had a copy of the memo or someone had seen it and so they formally requested a copy.

The tale gets interesting because of the internal dispute over how to respond to the request.  Most public affairs officers advised the commander to direct the CBC to file an access to information request.  Only one public affairs officer – a former political aide to Prime Minister Brian Mulroney – advised against that action and, ultimately, refused to be the one to tell CBC what to do.

The army relented, largely due to that refusal, and released the letter to the media without forcing them to go through the access process.

Nalcor following wrong energy path #nlpoli

Think back to last December.

A couple of Nalcor guys bragged about the company’s strategy of importing electricity when they needed during the months when prices were low and then exporting our own electricity when electricity prices were high.

Brilliant idea.  It worked for Hydro-Quebec for most of the past 50 years.

There’s only one problem:  it won’t work any more.

14 years to deliver on 2008 midwives promise #nlpoli

In the fall sitting of the House of Assembly in 2008, the provincial government repealed an old law regulating the practice of midwifery.

Then-health minister Ross Wiseman introduced the repeal bill at second reading and promised to replace it with a new law:

We envisage under the new legislation midwifery being an autonomous profession, separate and apart from nursing. [Hansard, 01 Dec 08]

The Health Professions Act – passed by the House of Assembly in 2010 – made it possible for government to set up midwives as a small, self-regulating profession.

After another four years, you’d think we might be a bit closer to what Wiseman originally promised.  If you thought that, you’d be wrong.

The Sound of Silence #nlpoli

With all the talk the past couple of days about the relationship between the provincial government and the provincial energy corporation, it might be a useful time to ask a fairly simple question:

What does Nalcor do?

Might seem like such an obvious question that it you are laughing, but hang on a second and let’s see what turns up if we go back and look at what the Conservatives said in the past about the energy corporation.

Nalcor running own show on Muskrat Falls #nlpoli

Nalcor Energy is running the Muskrat Falls project without any independent oversight from the provincial government.

In two interviews with the Telegram’s James McLeod  natural resources minister Derrick Dalley identified Nalcor boss Ed Martin as the government’s chief source of information on the project.  According to Dalley,  Martin passes information to the deputy minister of natural resources who passes it to Dalley.

Additionally, noted Dalley’s communications director in an e-mail sent between the two interviews, the “Departments of Finance and Natural Resources work in close collaboration with Nalcor Energy and have regular meetings and exchanges of information…”.

McLeod asked Dalley repeatedly about any use by the provincial government of its own independent sources to vet Nalcor’s work.  Dalley replied that the department didn’t have the expertise to duplicate that of Nalcor.  What’s more,  Daley asked rhetorically,  “why would we duplicate within the department [of natural resources]” the work going on at Nalcor to develop the project.

Dalley cited external contractors  - such as Manitoba Hydro - hired by Nalcor to vet work at each decision gate for the project as an example of work that “we have done” to validate Nalcor’s project management.

Non-voters and Influence #nlpoli

There is a new scourge among us.

An evil that causes “problems”.

Russell Wangersky found them and wrote about them this past weekend.

They are the people who do not vote.

Budget consultations and other political insanity #nlpoli

This year it is Charlene Johnson’s turn to host a series of meetings across the province that the provincial Conservatives cynically tout as a way for people to have some input into the provincial budget.

It’s cynical because – as the Conservatives know – the major budget decisions are already made before the finance minister heads to the first of these meetings. They are a waste of time.

The people who show up at these sessions have no idea what the actual state of the province’s finances are. The provincial government hides the real numbers until budget day.   Therefore the people who show up can’t offer any sensible suggestions, anyway.  Instead, they wind up begging like a bunch of serfs for more cash for this and more cash for that, even though the cash isn’t really available.

Unconscious Press Humour #nlpoli

Digging through a set of files in the provincial archives once upon a time, your humble e-scribbler came across a particular file in a set bequeathed to the archives decades ago by the fellow who wrote the original legislation that helped create the Royal Newfoundland Regiment in the Great War.

The hand-written title on it was “unconscious press humour.”  The file contained a raft of clippings from the local newspapers where the headline made an inadvertent joke when placed in the context of the story.  We are not talking about “Stripper bares all”,  the now legendary Telegram headline from the 1980s that wound up in the National Lampoon’s “True Facts” page thanks to Liberal member of parliament Dave Rooney.  We are talking stuff where some earnest headline writer had put together a groaner entirely by accident.

These days,  you’d title the file on your computer something like “inadvertent media jokes” or if you haven’t grown tired of it yet and wanted to stay true to the original name,  “Bob Wakeham, Volume 15.”

Thinking about the Unthinkable #nlpoli

Only a decade ago, voters turfed Roger Grimes and the Liberals from office as punishment for – among other things – signing a deal to develop a nickel mine even though it was a really good deal.

[Not one teaspoon, they said, echoing a line Brian Tobin used.  Better to leave the ore in the ground than do a deal that involved any ore leaving the province unprocessed]

But leave the oil in the ground rather than pump it out?

Unthinkable. 

That’s curious because leaving the oil in the ground is a valid policy choice for any government, including one in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Who is lobbying whom these days? #nlpoli

When it needed a lobbyist in Ottawa to monitor the federal environmental review process for its Kami project, Alderon Iron Ore turned to Summa Strategies and a well-connected fellow named Tim Powers.

You can find out information like this thanks to the federal registry of lobbyists.  Powers’ registration number for the Alderon gig is 777504-308605.  It’s a matter of public record.

For those who may not know, Powers is also a registered lobbyist (777504-14002) for Nalcor Energy in its dealings with the federal government.  Again, it’s a matter of public record. 

But what about Alderon’s dealings with the provincial government and its agency, Nalcor Energy?  Did they have anyone interceding on their behalf? 

Good question. 

Unfortunately, there’s no easy answer.

Maritime Link delayed almost a year #nlpoli

From the Chronicle Herald:

In its letter, the board also points out that parts of the project have been delayed. That includes a 10-month change in the timeline for the transition to start-up and operations. Commissioning of the 180-kilometre cable is slated to be completed by October 2017 rather than December 2016.  [emphasis added]

-srbp-

Threads #nlpoli

Writing good speeches is more art than science but even without much experience, you can tell when a part of a speech doesn’t ring true.

There was a spot like that in Kathy Dunderdale’s resignation speech.

Hearing it made you wince.

It just didn’t sit right. 

Reading the passage doesn’t make it any better.  Here it is:

Holding Pattern #nlpoli

Justice minister Darin King bailed out of the Conservative Party leadership contest on Monday.

King did it unceremoniously, on Twitter, despite having had a bunch of reporters ask him about it earlier in the afternoon during a media availability.   That way he didn’t have to answer any questions and try to come up with some comment that didn’t make look either like he wasn’t interested in the job or that there was yet another backroom deal coming along to frustrate his ambitions.  Last time around, King was organizing his own run for the top job when he ran headlong into the backroom crowd twisting arms and patting backs for the Dunderdale fix-up.

The reason King had met reporters was in response to a protest about conditions at the penitentiary in St. John’s. Guards protested on Monday.  Last week, one of the inmates had been on the receiving end of a vicious attack by other inmates.

The Game of Throne #nlpoli

In 1979 and 1989, using pretty much the same party constitution as they have now, the provincial Conservatives in Newfoundland and Labrador managed to find a new party leader before the end of March after the leader quit in January. 

In 1979, the Conservatives picked a new leader, went to the polls, and won a resounding victory in a general election by the middle of June.  In 1989, they’d picked a new leader, gone to the polls, and as it turned out, lost a general election. 

In 2014, the Conservative Party announced on Friday that it will only close the nominations for leader on March 14 and the delegate election meetings will run from early April until June. The Conservatives will hold their leadership convention on the first weekend in July and the new Premier will take office at some point after that.

Those are the differences that leap out at you.

Premier Tom and Uncle Joe #nlpoli

The provincial government announced on Thursday that it had directed the provincial energy corporation to build a new transmission line between Churchill Falls and western Labrador.

You’ve got to wonder why.

Not why they decided to build the line.  Apparently, there’s a need for the additional power.

Not even why it took them so long to announce it.

No.

You’ve got to wonder why this $300 million project needed a cabinet decision.

The (un)booming economy and population growth

“Bullshit,” wrote philosopher Harry Frankfurt a few years ago, “is unavoidable whenever circumstances require someone to talk without knowing what he is talking about.”

Enter Danny Williams, Doc O’Keefe, and Tom Hann.

The  T’ree Amigos dismissed the Conference Board of Canada’s recent population projection for the province with the simple argument that the booming economy  in the province - due largely to oil - would attract people here in droves.

That’s a really interesting idea because we can actually look at the evidence available to see if that might be true.  The province has been doing very well economically for the past decade.  Arguably, the province was even doing fairly well for the decade before that, compared to the 1970s and 1980s what with oil development that started in the early 1990s.

So what happened?

No brainer #nlpoli

Tuesday’s scrum with Danny Williams proved at least two things

The first is that the Old Man will say anything that comes into his head and most of it isn’t even close to true.  Second is that the local reporters gaggled around him wouldn’t call him on his obvious bullshit if their lives depended on it.

Never have.

Never will.

Among other things on Tuesday,  the Old Man claimed that building a new electricity transmission line to western Labrador from Churchill Falls is a “no brainer” because without the electricity the company whose board Danny sits on won’t build the new Kami mine.

Understanding Population Changes #nlpoli

It seems like Danny Williams can’t go two weeks without getting his mug on the news so it wasn’t surprising that on Monday the Old Man called the media together to unveil the latest name for his land development project south of Mount Pearl.

He wants to call it Galway.  Nice for his mom. But not really very newsworthy especially since to the rest of us, the land development scheme will always be Udanda or one of the dozen other names local wags have stuck on the thing.

After the show, reporters asked the Old Man about the latest population projection for the province.  This one is from the Conference Board of Canada and it concludes – not surprisingly – that the longer term trend for the population in Newfoundland and Labrador is downward.

“In my opinion, it’s absolute bullshit,”   said Williams.

It isn’t bullshit, of course, and despite what he said on Monday, the Old Man knows exactly what is going on in the province’s population.  That classic Williams contradiction – the truth versus what he said – makes it’s worth taking a look at the issue in greater detail to understand just what the population projections are all about. 

“So where do they come up with this?” Williams asked. 

Here’s where.

Following the money: Lawyers giving back #nlpoli

When Nalcor needs a bunch of Quebec lawyers, one of the firms they go to is Fasken Martineau. Nalcor has been relying on FM for lots of things over the years, including the infamous series of appeals to the Quebec energy regulator.

Last week, FM issued a news release about the close of the financial deal for the project.  It included a quote from Xeno Martis, the lead lawyer from FM for the project:

"Fasken Martineau conceived and proposed a modified "wrap structure" which sheltered the lenders from any project risk and provided them with direct recourse to the Sovereign," added Mr. Martis.

That was important, as one of the underwriters described in a Financial Post story a couple of weeks ago:

“The benefit of the guarantee was that no one had to look at the merits of the underlying project.”

Whatever the provincial government paid Fasken Martineau via Nalcor, that bit of work was worth it.  After all, as a result of the way FM structured the deal, investors were protected from any risk and none had to look at the merits of the project before putting money into it.

The provincial Conservatives can also thank FM for other cash.

Water-bombing a tractor trailer #nlpoli

Okay so it isn’t politics, but it is still cool.

This happened last July.

-srbp-

Separated at birth: Hakuna Matata edition #nlpoli

Timon and Pumbaa turned up at St. John’s City Hall for the rainbow flag raising on Friday.

-srbp-

Following the Money #nlpoli

After Bill Barry  - the only declared candidate -  former cabinet minister Shawn Skinner is the least imaginary of the potential candidates for the leadership of the Conservative Party in Newfoundland and Labrador.

“What I’m running for is to form the next government,”  Skinner told the Telegram’s James McLeod.  What I am running for.  Present tense.  Definitive. 

Not what I am thinking about running for.  Not what I might run for.

What I am running for.

And yet Skinner hasn’t actually announced that he is running.  The main reason he gave to the Telegram is understandable:  the party hasn’t announced the rules for the contest yet.

One of the rules Skinner is particularly concerned about is the spending limit for the campaign.

Cross another one off the imaginary list #nlpoli

A day after the shocking news that Tim Powers is not going to be a candidate for Conservative Party leader in Newfoundland and Labrador,  another imaginary candidate dropped out of a race he was never in.

Charlie Oliver announced on Wednesday he would back Bill Barry, most likely.

And instead of running to be Premier, Charlie wants to fund some sort of “think tank” instead.

Now Charlie might come through with the dough, but the whole idea looks a lot more like something someone gave Charlie to say as a way of saving face.

Turn, turn, turn #nlpoli

Dale Kirby and Christopher Mitchelmore shifted their desks in the House of Assembly on Tuesday from the independent or unaffiliated part of the chamber to sit with the Liberals.

They left the New Democratic Party last fall voicing concerns as they left about Lorraine Michael’s leadership and the lack of election readiness in the party that had, in 2012, at one point topped the polls in the province.

The news on Tuesday was probably the least surprising news of any that’s happened in provincial politics in the past six months, but that didn’t stop some people from  moaning about it.

The Abacus Poll for VOCM #nlpoli

A new poll by Abacus Data for VOCM shows the Liberals under Dwight ball leading the governing Conservatives in every region of Newfoundland and Labrador.

According to a new VOCM-Abacus Data random telephone survey of 500 eligible voters in Newfoundland and Labrador, the NL Liberals hold a 15-point lead over the PC Party among committed voters (Liberal 49% vs. PC 34%) with the NDP well back in third at 15%.

But that’s not all.

Amnesia #nlpoli

This week we should find out when the provincial Conservatives will have their leadership convention.

The talk around town late last week was that the crowd Danny Williams once called a Reform-based Conservative Party would be looking at May or June.  One of Williams’ former staffers turned up on local television on the weekend talking about the problems the party was having finding a hall, what with all the concerts and conventions and stuff on the go.  Steve Dinn talked about having to postpone the leadership convention to some time in the fall, maybe.

What a contrast to what the Progressive Conservative Party used to do.  

Chill up spine time #nlpoli

Two separate e-mails plunked the same article in the SRBP inbox on Friday.

Both highlighted the same quote from this National Post story on Muskrat Falls financing:

“The benefit of the guarantee was that no one had to look at the merits of the underlying project,” says Steve Halliday, managing director and head of global credit trading and distribution at TD.

So the investors bought into the project without looking at the merits of the project.

How many ways can that be bad for the people who will be stuck paying for it?

-srbp-

Doing it right #nlpoli

Premier Tom Marshall confirmed on Thursday that the provincial government will be doing the review of the provincial information and privacy law a year earlier than scheduled.

They will also be appointing three people to serve as the commission conducting the review.  The provincial government is also accepting nominations for commissioners.

While other details of the review aren’t public yet, the news so far is good.

Competition #nlpoli

When they got up on Wednesday morning, everyone in the province who was paying attention knew that Bill Barry was going to launch his bid for the provincial Conservative Party leadership later that afternoon in Corner Brook.

Barry made his plans clear the week before.  He’s the only one definitely in the race so far.  On Tuesday night,  Barry posted an invitation on facebook for people to come out and join him if they were alienated from provincial politics and fed up with the way things were going.

Any news hunter scanning the radio dial on Wednesday heard about the Barry newser, but just before 8:00 AM,  VOCM news director Fred Hutton played the tape of an interviewed he’d bagged the night before with former Liberal leadership contender Cathy Bennett.  No one had heard from her since the Liberals elected Dwight Ball, but there was Bennett telling the audience of the province’s largest privately owned radio network that she was definitely running in Virginia Waters in the next election as a Liberal.

Gone was the Bennett of her campaign, at times brusque and stiff.  In her interview with Hutton, Cathy Bennett displayed displayed all the skills she’d learned from her hard months on the campaign trail.  She was articulate, confident and professional.  Bennett  affirmed her commitment to the Liberal Party and spoke confidently of the change she wanted to bring to the province as part of a future Liberal government. 

The Hobby Garden of Meh, Whatever #nlpoli

What’s so striking about the race to replace Kathy Dunderdale as leader of the provincial Conservative Party is how spectacularly unspectacular it is so far.

Maybe things will change once the Conservative Party executive meets to figure out the leadership contest rules. But so far the whole thing has been decidedly dull.

The Jim Bennett Effect #nlpoli

Having tried to slide by without renewing their party,  the provincial Conservatives are now talking up the joys of change.

They’ve talked about everything else. 

Change is the only thing they haven’t talked about.

So now it’s their new talking point.

Problem is that they don’t seem to be doing much to … well… change.

Forget the rinse. Just repeat. #nlpoli

The same people saying and doing the same things as they have always done won’t change anything

A provincial Conservative started out the week explaining why he cut a deal with a couple of provincial Liberals so he could get re-elected.

As part of his speech on Monday, Paul Lane said:

While there are indeed many people doing quite well in this economy…there are still many people who are  not experiencing the positive impacts of our economy. As a matter of fact for many people, this economy is causing many people to fall further behind…

Those people include seniors, people with disabilities, people on fixed and low incomes, and in many cases, children. Government must focus on matters important to these people and the  “everyday person”, said Lane.

Another provincial Conservative changed his political life last week.  On Friday, Tom Marshall became the 11th Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador.  After talking the oath of office, Marshall said:

So it is therefore very important to me that all Newfoundlanders and Labradorians shall share fully and fairly in the benefits of our newfound prosperity, and have a voice in the way it is distributed.

So let us ensure that the fight against poverty and inequality intensifies in our province and we never forget the needs of those who are aged, who have disabilities, who are infirmed [sic], and who live on fixed and low incomes.

The words may be slightly different but there is no make that they both said the same thing:  government must now turn its attention to something new. 

There’s also no accident that the two said pretty much the same thing.  Tom didn’t figure out what to say after hearing Paul.  Far from it.  Much of what Paul said  - like when he spoke about “our” government - sounded like a speech he had planned for a Conservative audience.

What they were both reciting is the last script the Conservatives are turning to in their effort to find the magic message that they think will make the polls bounce upward again.

There was a lot of that  - reciting talking points - among provincial Conservatives last week.

So when’s the next election? #nlpoli

Since Kathy quit and Tom Marshall taking over on Friday morning, people are wondering when we will go to the polls.

There’s talk about a snap election.

There’s talk about the clock starts ticking on Friday so the election has to be done within the next 12 months.

To help guide you through it, here’s an overview of the issue.

Other people’s agendas #nlpoli

If you have not read Kathy Dunderdale’s resignation speech, take a moment and do so now.

What is most striking about the speech is that there is absolutely nothing anywhere in it that Kathy Dunderdale can claim as her personal accomplishment as Premier. There’s nothing she actually did during her three years in the most powerful political office in the province.

What Dunderdale talked about in the list of accomplishments are things that the Conservatives have done – supposedly – since 2003.

But look at the speech again.  There is nothing that Kathy set out to do and can now leave office safe in the knowledge she accomplished it.

Instead,  you will find a sentence toward the end, as she was clewing up, that mentioned something she hoped:

As the first woman to serve as Premier, I hope I have stoked the fires of imagination in young girls in our province and inspired them to consider standing for public office.

That is the only part of the speech where Dunderdale spoke with some personal conviction.  This was important to her.

The Second Longest Slow Good-bye #nlpoli

Provincial Conservatives will get together on Wednesday morning and eventually admit the worst kept secret in local political circles:  the local Tories will have a new leader before the next election.

Kathy always was an interim leader.  The original plan was to keep her for a few months to keep the lights on and some heat in the office so the pipes didn’t freeze.  Once the 2011 election came and went, the Conservatives were supposed to dump her, hold a leadership and carry on from there.

As it turned out, Kathy Dunderdale just lasted a lot longer than people originally intended. 

Shifts and Changes #nlpoli

Kathy is going.

Tom Marshall gets to quit politics as interim Premier.

That’s if the reports on Tuesday night hold through Wednesday morning.

Here are some quick observations:

Minister Lane #nlpoli

In all the political chatter on Monday,  no idea got a stronger negative reaction than the one from your humble e-scribbler that Paul Lane had secured himself a plum appointment in a future Liberal government, including a seat in cabinet.

For some reason, the idea of Minister Paul Lane just infuriated people.

Some said it was just not true.

Some said it was preposterous.

Others said that no one had made Lane any promises.

Let’s take a closer look at this.

Paul Lane: 2, Dwight Ball: 0 #nlpoli

Paul Lane scored big on Monday.

First, he secured his nomination and his seat in the next provincial election by running as a Liberal.  As long as the party continues on its current track, Lane will win easy re-election not on his own merits but – as in 2011 – on the coat-tails of the party he was hooked up with at the time.

To be sure, Liberal leader Dwight Ball insisted Lane has no guarantee of a safe nomination, but in practical terms, that is a huge nose-puller.  Incumbents are typically hard to unseat.  Incumbents with a year and a half of profile before the nomination are that much hard to beat.  And those with the enthusiastic and unqualified support of the party leader and the entire caucus likely could not be defeated with a crucifix, stake and a bathtub of Holy water.  Paul Lane is safe.

And then there is the little bonus Lane garnered on Monday that few seem to grasp at this point.  By convention, no party leader in Newfoundland and Labrador has ever left any of his opposition bench mates out of the fat once they win an election. 

In 1989, the only incumbent who didn’t get to cabinet was Kevin Aylward. That was only because Aylward had blotted his copybook not once but twice over the leader and his seat. Aylward eventually got his reward.  In 2003,  Danny Williams rewarded all of his caucus mates with plum jobs of one kind or another. 

These are the kind of rewards that require no overt promise. If asked, politicians can always quickly say they’ve made no promises. But everyone understands, with a figurative wink, that they’ll be looked after. 

Dwight Ball will have a hard time breaking that tradition. It’s part of the unspoken constitution of politics.  There are lots of things Ball and his people will say to justify Lane’s reward, when it happens.  Some of it might even be plausibly true.  But that doesn’t matter.  The fix is already in.  Paul Lane finished Monday with a guarantee of anything any ambitious politician would want: a secure future and, in all likelihood, a cabinet seat in a future government.

Evidently that is something the ambitious Mr. Lane he couldn’t get from the Conservatives.

Terry Paddon’s Report #nlpoli

If you want to understand what the provincial government’s audited financial statements really mean, you will have to skip Tom Marshall’s comments last week and look instead at the lengthy set of observations from the Auditor General released on Friday.

Paddon’s comments are especially important for two reasons.

First of all, Paddon is the former deputy minister of finance.  He knows both the current situation and how the government got there.  if he is speaking this plainly now about the government;s financial position, you can imagine what he was saying as the current administration got itself into a mess in the first place.

Second, Paddon explains a great many things in plain enough English so that anyone can understand his points. As you will see, they are not what the government has chosen to talk about.

The Consumer Economy #nlpoli

It’s the sort of thing that leaps out at you. 

As SRBP mentioned on Thursday, in her book Shopping for votes veteran political reporter Susan Delacourt put it in stark terms. Consumer spending has accounted for 60 to 70 percent of American gross domestic product since 1980.  In Canada, it’s been more like 52 to 58 percent nationally. “So when politicians say that they are focused on the economy,” Delacourt wrote, “what they often mean is that they are focused on getting Canadians to buy stuff.”

Well, here’s a pretty chart to give you some local figures.  They come from Statistics Canada CANSIM 384-0038 showing gross domestic product based on expenditure, in constant 2007 dollars.

The Vibrant Unsustainable Super Energy Debt Warehouse #nlpoli

The Conservatives used to say that Newfoundland and Labrador was eastern North America’s energy warehouse.  Once Danny Williams ran for the hills and left Kathy Dunderdale in charge, she kicked everything up a notch.

Energy warehouse was too plain for Kathy, whose party ran on the slogan “New Energy” in the 2011 general election.

With Kathy running the place, it became a super warehouse.  “We are an energy super warehouse,” said Kathy countless times. 

The New Energy Party even clipped this bit of Kathy from the House of Assembly for its website back in 2011:

Mr. Speaker, this Province is an energy super warehouse. We have what the world wants. We will bring it to market. We will supply our own people, Mr. Speaker, and we will earn from those resources for generations to come.

“We will supply our own people, Mr. Speaker.”

The 2012 Public Accounts #nlpoli

There is always something interesting in the province’s audited financial statements and – sadly – it is often at odds with what the politicians have been saying.

On Tuesday, the provincial government released the audited statements for Fiscal Year 2012 (01 Apr 12 to 31 Mar 13) and they are no exception.

If Nalcor got the peak load wrong #nlpoli

The rolling blackouts on the island of Newfoundland could warn of bigger problems to come, if a new paper by the analyst JM is correct.

Underestimating peak load and the potential impact on the Muskrat Falls solution

-srbp-

The Third Line #nlpoli

Most people in Newfoundland and Labrador never think about the electricity into their homes.  They don’t know where it comes from and they certainly don’t have any idea how it gets from the generating plants to their fridges, washing machines, and television sets.

People are thinking about those things a lot more these days, in the wake of the recent power supply crisis.

One of the issues you will likely hear a lot more about in upcoming hearings by the public utilities board is about a new power transmission line from the hydro generating station at Bay d’Espoir across the isthmus and on to Holyrood.

Here’s some additional information about the project.

“Independent” Review #darknl #nlpoli

-srbp-

The Confidence Campaign #nlpoli #darknl

The provincial government started its campaign to gain control of the political agenda on Thursday with its announcement that it would appoint someone to do something sometime in the future.

The conventional media outlets didn’t report Premier Kathy Dunderdale’s announcement that way.  The Telegram, for example, called it an “independent” review but acknowledged in the second sentence of its brief story that Dunderdale “doesn't know the shape or scope of the review”. 

CBC went farther in its online story, saying that the “independent review” would “look at the current electrical system in Newfoundland and Labrador; how it operates, how it is managed, and how it is regulated as the province moves from an isolated system to an interconnected system.”

But really, all of that is just an unsubstantiated claim, given that the news release includes these words in a quote attributed to the Premier:

…over the next six weeks my government will work to draft terms of reference and identify an independent body to conduct a review.

Smoke from the fireplace #nlpoli

-srbp-

Dunderstan #nlpoli

In January 2012, Ed Martin and his nasally drone ridiculed the idea of shifting demand for electricity from one part of the day to another so that his company wouldn’t have a problem meeting spikes in demand during the winter.

He dismissed the idea as “theoretical” even though it’s widely used across Canada in places where the electricity system is well managed.

Two years later, almost to the day, energy conservation and demand management are Martin’s best friend to help people get through what his Conservative friends are willing to concede was the current “inconvenience.” 

Crises within crises #nlpoli

The action of the Soviet Union, Winston Churchill once said, “is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.”

Some people in Newfoundland and Labrador likely felt that way after Day Three of Kathy Dunderdale’s one woman crusade to deny that the province is experiencing a crisis.

Most people just cock their heads to one side and mouth the three letters W, T, and F.

A tale of two crises #nlpoli

Kathy Dunderdale did two major interviews on the first working day since the start of the Nalcor generation crisis.

One was with registered Nalcor lobbyist Tim Powers (# 777504-14002) who is currently holding down a guest spot hosting on VOCM.  The whole interview is actually online at vocm.com.  The second was with CBC’s John Furlong on Radio Noon.  As of Monday night, it wasn’t online.  She also had a media availability later in the day with Earl Ludlow from Newfoundland Power.

If you heard both great interviews.  If not,  listen to the VOCM one. Powers repeated the interview on Monday night when he co-hosted the night-time talk show with Jonathan Richler.  You’ll hear a whole lot that confirms the observations we made here on Monday.  Let’s walk through the day.

The Great Blizzard/Blackout 2014 #nlpoli

Some observations:

1.  Yep.  It’s a crisis.

When you have a major utility cutting electricity to people in a blizzard at random, for random periods of time because it cannot supply enough electricity to meet demand, you have a crisis.

That’s what it feels like to the people in it.  That’s what it is.

People never knew when their lights would be on or off, nor would they know for how long.  The Newfoundland Power and the NL Hydro operations people who briefed the public were straightforward and factual.  They did their jobs well.

The thing is that the public emergency system, including the politicians, didn’t clue in that randomly shutting off power to thousands of voters at a time over the course of several days might be a bit of a problem for the voters.

The SRBP 9th Anniversary #nlpoli

It all started on January 3, 2005 and as of today, the Sir Robert Bond Papers is nine years old.

As your humble e-scribbler writes this on Thursday evening, the gang at Nalcor have managed the provincial electrical system so ineffectively that on the coldest night of the year so far,  they are forcing people to live for unspecified periods in complete darkness without heat so that Nalcor can cope with the load on the island transmission grid.

These same people are now building a massive hydro-electric project that will produce some of the most expensive electricity in North America and force those consumers currently freezing in the dark to pay for it.

Someone actually tweeted on Thursday night that this was Nalcor’s worst case scenario.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

Nalcor gambled and got it wrong.

Taxpayers are bearing the cost.

It’s the same as Muskrat Falls. And as SRBP enters its 10th year,  there’s something fitting about that situation, given the post from 3 January 2011 pointed out that the fact that consumers in this province are taking all the risk and paying all the bills remains one of the fundamental problems with the entire Muskrat Falls project.  

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The 2013 SRBP Themes (Part 3) #nlpoli

Government is about making decisions.

In trying to understand what is going on,  how governments make decisions is sometimes more important than what decisions get made.

That’s why SRBP has highlighted things about the structure and organization of government.  The past year was no exception.