Mystery Meat #nlpoli

The Telegram’s exceedingly generous headline said that Conservative leadership candidate Paul Davis put meat to the bones of his  campaign on Friday by announcing details of his policies. 

In reality,  Davis offered vague platitudes for the most part with very little substance to any of his plans.  There’s nothing surprising in that.  Pretty well all the provincial politicians and parties have kept their plans and ideas vague.

You can see the vagueness in Davis’ financial priorities.

Summer reading: Command and Control

From the blurb:

“Written with the vibrancy of a first-rate thriller, Command and Control interweaves the minute-by-minute story of an accident at a nuclear missile silo in rural Arkansas with a historical narrative that spans more than fifty years.  It depicts the urgent effort by American scientists, policymakers, and military officers to ensure that nuclear weapons can’t be stolen, sabotaged, used without permission, or detonated inadvertently. Schlosser also looks at the Cold War from a new perspective, offering history from the ground up, telling the stories of bomber pilots, missile commanders, maintenance crews, and other ordinary servicemen who risked their lives to avert a nuclear holocaust.  At the heart of the book lies the struggle, amid the rolling hills and small farms of Damascus, Arkansas, to prevent the explosion of a ballistic missile carrying the most powerful nuclear warhead ever built by the United States.”

-srbp-

Identity Crisis #nlpoli

Newfoundland is changing, Michael Crummey writes in the Newfoundland nationalists’ newspaper, the Globe and Mail.  House prices are climbing in St. John’s.  There are plenty of expensive restaurants around and people to eat the food and drink the wine sold there.

“But,”  says Crummey,  “while oil execs tuck into their gourmet fish, much of rural Newfoundland is falling deeper into a crisis that began with the cod moratorium in 1992.”

The whole province – Newfoundland and Labrador – is changing.  There is a difference between the changes around the provincial capital and the rest of the province.  Crummey says that a “generation from now,  what it means to be a Newfoundlander will be something altogether different” from what he calls the traditional Newfoundland of “isolated, tightly knit communities that relied on the fishery and each other for survival.”

All true stuff.  The place and its people are changing.  The problem with Crummey’s commentary is that he gets his timescales wrong and misidentifies the root of the change and its implications.

Information Underload #nlpoli

Poor Sandy Collins.

The Minister (of the Moment) of Public Engagement and a gaggle of senior public servants went to meet the access to information review committee on Tuesday.  Supposed to be half a day chatting about this whole letting people have access to government information thing .  Turned into a marathon grilling. 

Not pretty.

Conservative Misinformation and the Public Sector Debt Problem #nlpoli

There is no limit to how selectively provincial Conservatives will read a document in order to find some microscopic filament that might possibly confirm that they have really been running the most magnificent administration in the history of the galaxy.

They still insist, for example,  that they are the tops in leadership and accountability even though the most recent poll shows that 77% of the people in the province don’t think so.

Conservatives also insist they have done financial miracles.  No less a personage than the party’s vice president took to the Twitter on Monday to tell everyone that:

According to Fraser Institute, SK and NL are the only provinces that reduced their public debt since 2007.

Well,  they said a lot more than that,  but evidently Mark Whiffen and didn’t need to read anything but that. Since the rest of us are not obliged or inclined to such delusions,  let’s see what the gang at the Fraser Institute actually said.

Politics for 200, Alex #nlpoli

Who was the first Newfoundlander elected to the Canadian House of Commons?

What party did he represent?

What year was he elected?

What riding did he represent?

-srbp-

Politicians and Cars #nlpoli

The Liberals are touting their latest campaign-style television spot featuring Dwight Ball talking about accountability and connecting with voters.  In the spot, he’s driving somewhere in the driving province and as he talks the thing cuts to shots of him talking to people.

Remember that the latest poll shows that the Liberals own the accountability and leadership issue (48% to the Conservatives’ 13%).  This tidy little spot reinforces the Liberal strength and highlights the Conservatives’ weakness.

When you are done watching that, flip over the the Mother Corps’ online archive and watch a 1971 current affairs documentary on the provincial election that year.  Your mind will bend about a lot of things, not the least of which is the comment from New Democratic Party leader Jim Walsh. 

Yes, friends,  that Jim Walsh.  He’s out west somewhere now, a long way removed in every way from that 1971 election.

But when your mind gets back on its even keel again,  notice the portion of the documentary where Frank Moores is driving along a stretch of newly paved highway talking about the problems of the faltering Smallwood administration.  While it’s highly unlikely the producers of the new spot remembered or knew about the old documentary,  some would say there is a fitting parallel in there.

Let that be your Freak Friday political thrill for the week.

-srbp-

Truth and Consequences #nlpoli

Wednesday morning started with an intriguing but hardly surprising story.

CBC’s David Cochrane tweeted that sources in the John Ottenheimer camp believed that Conservative leadership candidates Steve Kent and Paul Davis were working together to thwart Ottenheimer’s bid.  Kent quickly replied via Twitter,  writing that “I am not teamed up with any camp.”

NTV’s Mike Connors tweeted a couple of hours after Cochrane that former cabinet minister and Ottenheimer campaign co-chair Shawn Skinner told him that Kent and Davis had started “combining slates” of delegates at some delegate selection meetings. Connors also tweeted the Kent denial that he was teaming up with anyone.  Connors also added Skinner’s assessment that Ottenheimer was leading the delegate count or was tied with Davis while Kent was in third place.

Bu then Connors added some detail that made it clear Kent’s denial earlier just wasn’t true.

Perks #nlpoli

A story in last weekend’s Telegram documented all the perks that former Premiers get.

Aside from a severance package, a couple of extra months pay, and a government car allowance for three months,  they also get a free game license (big, small,  salmon) if they want one. Now truth be told,  those game licenses go with the job anyway.  From the day a Premier gets the job, he or she can lay claim to a license to hunt or fish whatever they want. 

Most of these date back to at least the 1970s around the time the first guy who served as Premier got booted out and the second guy replaced him.  The Telegram story covers all of that.

The Shared Delusion #nlpoli

Tom Marshall is a typical politician.  He got into politics to make things better.

And, as he reaches the end of his political career,  Tom feels a little frustrated or disappointed in how things turned out.  Marshall’s big hopes didn’t turn into equally big results.

So he blames others.

Oculus #nlpoli

Justin Simms makes films.

His latest project is a documentary about Danny Williams.  Funded by the National Film Board,  the movie, imaginatively titled “Danny”,  will premiere in Halifax next month at the Atlantic Film Festival.

“We had a window of time,”  Simms told The Overcast recently,  “where we kind of fought back and stood up to Canada in a way that we never have and possibly never will again.”  Simms was talking about the racket a decade ago over federal transfer payments, including Equalization. 

Simms said that it was very interesting for the team that made the documentary “to see us, the further we get away from that,  reassessing it.”

Williams may be gone from the political scene, but as The Overcast put it, “the rapid pace of change in the province continues.  ‘That might make the films and the art we make about the place,’ Simms said, 'all the more important.’”

The Stark Numbers #nlpoli

Anyone who wants to get insight into the political landscape in Newfoundland and Labrador need look no further than the Abacus poll commissioned by VOCM, the first bit of which was released on Thursday.

Provincial Conservatives may be running around consoling themselves with all sorts of notions but the reality of their position is starkly revealed by Abacus.  Don’t look at the party choice numbers.  Although that’s bad enough news for Conservatives and New Democrats,  that’s the simple stuff.  Look instead at all the data below that.

Cost Driver #nlpoli

Companies large and small in the province are under considerable stress as a result of Nalcor’s Muskrat Falls project.

The cause?  This CBC story from Labrador mentions “steep wages” as the major issue:

"Over across the river, the average paying job is up to $40 an hour, and that's before benefits and everything else, so it's very, very hard to compete with," said [Mike] Hickey [of Hickey’s Construction].

According to CBC,  Hickey’s been having a hard time keeping employees as a result.  He just can’t compete with those kinds of wages. 

August is polling month #nlpoli

The provincial government headquarters offices in St. John’s will be closed on Wednesday for the annual St. John’s regatta.

There won’t be any news releases most likely. 

But so far,  there have been three working days in August,  the same month when Corporate research Associates will be in the field,  and that’s been plenty of time for government’s publicity machine to get to work on its regular poll-goosing agenda

Paging Dr. Freud #nlpoli

Reluctant Premier Tom Marshall said some interesting things in what appears to be his retirement interview with the Western Star.

Like running for office in 2011 wasn’t what he planned. It was what happened after some unnamed person or people asked him to stay around a while longer.  He was set to go before the last election as SRBP told you back then.  He only stuck around as party of inside deal worked out by the Conservatives that including keeping Kathy Dunderdale as figurehead leader.

Just like sticking around these past few months wasn’t in his plans either.  In fact,  when Bill Barry packed it in,  Marshall was ready to go at that moment.  He hung around because that’s what Frank Coleman wanted, presumably just like Marshall later fired all his own staff in a miserable way one Friday afternoon because that’s what Frank and his people wanted.

And when it comes to leaving office this time,  Marshall won’t be going anywhere until the next leader of the party tells him what to do.  The always sharp labradore already pointed out that Tom is a little mixed up on how that works.  Marshall told the Western Star that he will resign “when the next premier chooses to call a byelection.” Of course,  there can’t be a by-election until Tom resigns so what Tom  said doesn’t make sense.

But just look at what he said.  He’ll resign when the next Premier calls a by-election. But…

If either Steve Kent or Paul Davis win the leadership,  then the Premier won’t need to call a by-election.  They already have seats in the legislature,  Tom can stay in his seat as a backbencher unless there’s some reason to get someone in Tom’s place in a hurry.

Maybe Tom was just saying that he’ll be going regardless of who wins and his successor will have to call a by-election to replace him as a member of the House of Assembly.

Or maybe Tom was having a slip of the Freudian kind.

In the context of the interview,  Tom was talking about when he’d hand over to the next Premier, not just when he’d leave as the member of Humber East.

Premier calling a by-election.

The only one of the three candidates who would need Tom’s seat would be John Ottenheimer.  Maybe Tom was giving us a clue to who he knows will win the leadership.  Freudian slips can be fun.  We’ll know in a few weeks if this was one.

-srbp-

The 2018-2019 Offshore Review #nlpoli

In 2003,  the new Conservative administration set as its first task to renegotiate the Atlantic Accord.

They hadn’t campaigned on that issue.  The campaign election platform included a pledged to change the Equalization system in order to address the supposed claw-back of oil revenues.

Still, they started out in office wanting to renegotiate the Atlantic Accord.  That idea sent a few people familiar with the Accord into the horrors.

Another tired dog and sway-backed pony show #nlpoli

Temporary premier Tom Marshall and natural resources minister Derrick Dalley released a 40-odd page document on Thursday.  It’s was supposed to be a report of a committee of senior public servants appointed to provide something called “oversight” of the project.

Neither the report nor the committee actually reports on anything about the project.  This first report is actually about re[porting on the project.  More specifically it contains information about the oversight committee,  all the other sources of “oversight” for the project,  some boilerplate about project schedules and budgets,  and a report from Ernst and Young. 

That last document takes up about 12 pages of the total.  It is dated July 25 and describes what Ernst and Young suggest would be the best way for this “oversight” to work.

If you wanted to know how to say absolutely nothing useful in 40 pages,  this is the document to study.

STI rates in Newfoundland and Labrador #nlpoli

Saskatoon Health Region released a report on July 18 on the rates of sexually transmitted infections in the city in 2013. 

A CBC report earlier this week quoted the deputy regional health officer as saying that social media was having an impact on the rates of syphilis in the city. 

"We do know that meet-ups using social media has led to an increase in these types of infections, and even outbreaks of syphilis, in other parts of the country," Julie Kryzanowski, the region's deputy medical health officer, told CBC News Monday.

That’s actually a follow-on from a similar story in April in which Kryzanowski’s predecessor said that the regional health authority had interviewed some of the patients who reported they “were using certain social media sites to meet sex partners.”

So that got your humble e-scribbler wondering about STI rates in this province.

Mullet Policy #nlpoli

Government is like a lot of things in life:  it’s about finding solutions to problems.

Okay.

If that upsets your cynical sensibilities,  think about it as about finding answers to questions.

Better?

Good.

Now matter what way you want to look at it,  that’s basically what government is supposed to do.  There’s a problem.  Government comes up with the answer.  Ideally, they ponder the problem.  They look at it from a whole bunch of angles.  They figure out if it really is a problem first and then come up with a way to deal with it.  They might even come up with a bunch of ways of dealing with it

The Jewel in the Crown #nlpoli

If you are a Newfoundland politics junkie who hasn’t been reading Uncle Gnarley,  then you’ve been missing out.

You can fix that by reading the latest offering from Gnarley – a.k.a. Des Sullivan – about Nalcor and the idea of having bureaucrats play at being entrepreneurs.

While you’re at it,  you might also want to read a couple of SRBP posts to go with it:

• “The sound of silence” and
• “Newfoundland and Labrador Hydra”

-srbp-

Horse farts #nlpoli

If you do nothing else in the next few days,  take the time to read the decision issued Friday (via CBC) by a Quebec superior court judge in a case brought by the provincial government against Hydro-Quebec.

Judge Joel Silcoff does one thing supremely well:  he summarises about 40 years of dealings between Hydro-Quebec and the Government of Newfoundland – via first Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro, and lately Nalcor – to change, alter, adjust and otherwise frig around with the 1969 power contract originally signed by HQ with Brinco.

Silcoff actually adds a new details to the public knowledge of what has taken place between Hydro-Quebec and the Newfoundland government over the years.  Before now,  the best summary was one produced for Vic Young’s Blame Canada commission over a decade ago.

And when you are done reading the judge’s decision, you can count yourself among one of the few people in the province who have actually read it.  Never mind all the people talking about it or pontificating about what it means.  They likely have not read it, any more than they have read the decisions of the Regie d’energie or Moby Dick.

2019 should be interesting #nlpoli

The cheque’s been cash. 

There’s no more cash flowing.

But the deal is not quite done, yet.

Crime Severity Indices, St. John’s #nlpoli

This week, Statistics Canada released their latest compilation of crime statistics based on reports by police.

The figures in the release were year to year but if you hunt around a bit,  you can find the original tables of data.  from there, you can pluck out specific information.  In this post, we’ve pulled out the data for St. John’s from 2003 to 2013.

Slates #nlpoli

In any delegated political convention, you need to elect delegates in each of the districts who will vote for your candidate at the leadership convention.

CBC’s On Point featured three individuals last weekend who were touted as being key players in each of the camps.  David Brazil was from the Kent Krew.  Paul Oram was there as a Paul Davis supporter.  Shawn Skinner was John Ottenheimer’s man.

Uncommon Stupidity #nlpoli

There are times when a politician’s comments are so stunned they just take your breath away.

The first few days of the Damn-fool Fishery this weekend were marred by a tragic and entirely preventable death off Bell Island.  A man drowned after being tossed from the boat in which he was riding.  None of the people in the boat were wearing life jackets.

The major of the largest community on Bell Island turned up on CBC Monday evening.  Gary Gosine explained that while some people might think the man would be alive today had been wearing a life jacket,  the real culprit in this tragedy was the federal government.  The feds restricted the “food fishery” to a few weeks of the year.  people have to go out in all kinds of weather while in other provinces they can fish a lot more often.

Where does one begin to explain the utter stupidity of Gosine’s comments? 

Traitors Everywhere #nlpoli

Tony Collins loves Muskrat Falls.

He loves it so much that every now and again he takes the valuable space from his column in the weekend Telegram and lets loose with a verbal assault on the people who don’t love the project as much as he does.

The last time Tony got in a lather about Muskrat Falls was 2012.  Back then,  he was “tired” of discussing Muskrat Falls.  Time to “get on with it”,  he said, just like all the other blue-bleeding Conservatives. 

The Blackbird Song

It’s summer.

We don't need to talk politics all the time.

Here’s a song from the past that some people will remember.  It only did well in this part of North America likely because we are the only ones who didn’t think these people had an accent.

-srbp-

La Romaine: on or off? #nlpoli

On Monday,  Quebec premier Philippe Couillard left the impression that the third and fourth dams on the La Romaine river were in doubt. 

Couillard told reporters as he headed to the meeting of New England Governors and Eastern Canadian Premiers that Hydro-Quebec would finish the first two dams, currently under construction, and then make a decision:

“We will evaluate them and we will see exactly what is needed. [translation of “On va les évaluer et on va voir justement quel est le besoin.”

According to La Presse, Couillard said that HQ would assess electricity needs for industrial use within Quebec as well as for export before determining whether to build the last two dams of a four dam project.

A report commissioned for the short-lived Parti Quebecois administration last year concluded that continued development of La Romaine would not be profitable,  given the large surplus of electricity currently available to Hydro-Quebec.

The entire cost of the the La Romaine development is pegged at $6.5 billion for approximately 1500 megawatts of electricity.  If HQ proceeds with the remaining dams, the current schedule will see the third on line by 2017 and the fourth producing electricity by 2020.

A statement issued by Couillard’s office on Tuesday changed the story.  The statement said that planning was already underway for the third and fourth dams.  It also repeated Couillard’s comment from Monday that the surplus generating capacity would be an asset for Hydro-Quebec in the marketplace.

-srbp-

Shapes and sizes #nlpoli

The Duke of Connaught,  Governor General of Canada and uncle of King George, visited St. John’s in the middle of July, 1914.  During his visit,  he officially opened a new park in St. John’s and inspected the paramilitary groups that formed the basis of Newfoundland’s defence plan in the event of war,  of just the sort that was on the horizon in July 1914.

As part of imperial defence preparations in the decade and a half before,  the Newfoundland government had participated like all the parts of the British empire. At the 1909 Imperial Conference,  Sir Edward Morris had committed officially to organize soldiers for local defence and potentially service in addition to the Royal Naval Reserve division created around the time of the Boer War at the turn of the century and maintained by the Newfoundland government at a cost of 3,000 pounds sterling annually ever since.

The Newfoundland force would draw its men from the paramilitary brigades like the Legion of Frontiersmen,  the Armed Lads’ Brigade in Twillingate, King Edward brigade in Harbour Grace, and the religious groups like the Church Lads’ Brigade, the Catholic Cadet Corps,  the Methodist Guards, and the Newfoundland Highlanders, representing the Presbyterian Church.

In the event, the British government signalled the imperial governments to adopted the precautionary stage of the country’s defence plan on July 29, 1914.  Newfoundland did so.  The Admiralty mobilized the Royal Navy the same day and on July 30,  the governor in St. John’s formally forwarded a telegram to the commanding officer of the naval reserve division in St. John’s to “hold in readiness” for a call-out.  That word came at 4:00 AM local time on August 2, in a message sent through official channels in the name of the secretary of state fro colonies (Harcourt) to the governors of colonies with naval reservists. 

The Conservative race picks up speed #nlpoli

One of the great things about political campaigns is that the players have a chance to surprise observers. We saw that in the Liberal leadership as Cathy Bennett went from being a complete political novice to coming in third against two experienced competitors.

In the Conservative leadership race, we have three experienced politicians so there is none of the newbie growth potential. 

That doesn’t mean that we haven’t seen some shifts in perception in the first couple of weeks.

Gone, baby, gone #nlpoli

In September 2008,  four cabinet ministers went to Harbour Grace to announce that the provincial government was giving the company $8.0 million in public money,  interest free.

The provincial government communications people circulated a picture of the four at the time - from left, Jerome Kennedy,  Danny Williams, Paul Oram, and Trevor Taylor – as they tried on some of the boots made at the plant.  Every one is smiling.  The $8.0  million in taxpayers’ cash was supposed to help the company add another 50 full-time jobs on top of the 170 at the plant.

It’s an interesting picture because within 12 months of the announcement,  the two on the right – Taylor and Oram – would be gone from politics.  Williams left in 2010,  the year the provincial government started a “review” of the loan after the company cut the work force to 100.  They never did add any jobs. Kennedy hung on the longest of the lot,  but five years after his trip to the boot factory, Jerome was gone from politics as well.

Issues and Answers – on line #nlpoli

After a couple of false starts over the past year,  it looks like NTV has started posting episodes of Issues and Answers online. 

That’s good news for political junkies.  The half hour public affairs show airs Sundays at noon with a couple of rebroadcasts.  Unfortunately, if you missed it or forgot to program the PVR  - or before that the VCR – you were basically SOL. 

If NTV keeps posting them online, more people will get a chance to see them.

-srbp-

The Desolation of Smog #nlpoli

The Telegram’s Peter Jackson used the most recent JM paper on consumer electricity prices and Muskrat Falls as part of his Wednesday column.

Peter made some worthwhile observations, so head over and read the column if you haven’t already.  That includes pointing out that current forecasts have electricity prices in Ontario and British Columbia rising by 42% and 45% by 2018.

“All these numbers are maddening,”  writes Jackson,  “both in terms of scale and in terms of variability between Nalcor and critics.”

Absolutely true.

Convergence #nlpoli

A couple of years ago,  Liberal leader Dwight Ball said the Liberals would use earnings from Muskrat Falls to lower electricity prices for consumers in this province.

The Conservatives dismissed the idea at the time.

Then a couple of weeks ago, with news the cost of Muskrat Falls continues to climb, Premier Tom Marshall told the province that he and his colleagues had adopted the idea of using revenues from Muskrat Falls to lower consumer prices as their own policy.

That’s not all of it.  To understand the importance of Marshall’s comments fully you have to start at the beginning.

Electricity prices when Muskrat comes on line #nlpoli

Cost over-runs on Muskrat Falls as well as other costs not included in previous calculations by Nalcor will likely increase current electricity prices by almost double their rate in 2011,  according to a recent assessment.

JM,  a professional engineer who has worked extensively in the construction of large engineering projects,  totalled up revised project costs and other factors including:

• the most recent Muskrat Falls cost increases,
• the cost of a third line to the Avalon from Bay d’Espoir,
• a new line to western Labrador,
• lower-than-expected electricity demand,
• a win by Hydro-Quebec in its lawsuit, and,
• revenue from export sales of electricity.

JM estimates that any revenue from sales would only lower the price of Muskrat falls electricity by about three cents a kilowatt hour.

However, the reader should be reminded that the government of Newfoundland will be borrowing 1 Billion dollars to finance the equity contributions into the project. Assuming a 5% annual interest rate on the borrowed equity there would be an annual interest payment of 50 million dollars. What Nalcor put in one pocket, they take from the other.

Consumer electricity prices from Muskrat Falls

-srbp-

The World According to Kent #nlpoli

If you are one of the political savants who thinks that dominating Twitter makes for a modern, inspired, and successful political leadership campaign, then say hello to Premier Steve Kent, right.

The guy and his Twitter army, some of them undoubtedly utter fakes,  managed to spam the living hell out of twitter over the weekend.  They far surpassed Con O’Brien, the solo anti-Muskrat Falls army who previously held the record for relentless tweeting. 

Con is ahead of the other Con on substance though:  O’Brien usually makes his own comments;  the Kent Klub tend to send around anything anyone else said about their man-boy, as long as it is positive.

Friday Bits #nlpoli

To understand the real Steve Kent and not the manufactured front he presents to the world these days, take a look at this 2007 post by Simon Lono back when he wrote Offal News.

There’s a great quote in it from Kent when he was thinking about a run at federal politics for the Alliance/Reform crowd.  You’ll be struck by how familiar it is. 

When you get over the willies, skip over to Uncle Gnarley.  Des Sullivan notes that the “narrative” on Muskrat Falls is changing as the project goes along. 

That’s it for the week.  Enjoy the summer sunshine.

-srbp-

Political Fashionistas #nlpoli

Before the year is out, we will have yet another strategy from the provincial government.

We were supposed to have this one on July 1, however like pretty well everything associated with the current crowd running the place, it is a day late.  The minister responsible for the strategy – Fairity O’Brien – says we will now have it some unspecified time in the fall.  That will be after Fairity releases a document that tells us what the government heard during some sort of consultation process that they are almost as fond of as they are of strategy writing.

The thing will likely also be a dollar short, as well, if recent experience is any guide.  You see this “population growth strategy” is actually the second kick at the cat for the provincial government.  Their existing strategies aimed at dealing with some of the factors affecting population were all dismal failures.

Avoiding a cabinet shuffle #nlpoli

By the end of the week,  Premier Tom Marshall will be short at least two cabinet ministers.

Paul Davis quit as health minister on Wednesday and Steve Kent is expected to follow on Thursday as both vie for the party leadership.

On top of that he’s missing Joan Shea who quit last month.

Some think Tom will shuffle the cabinet.  He could do that, except that he doesn’t really have much to shuffle with.  On top of that, he’d also be stuffing people into cabinet who the new leader might not want to face as a cabinet minister in the middle of September.

Tom doesn’t have to shuffle his cabinet at all.  This is the slow time of the year as Trevor Taylor laughingly put it or, to be more accurate,  everything is on hold anyway while the party sorts out its leadership mess.

Therefore, Tom can rely on his table of alternate ministers,  established by order in council at the last major shuffle in May.  That’s the official list of substitutions to cover periods when the appointed minister of a department is out of town or incapacitated.

Paul Davis is gone.  Between Susan Sullivan as first alternate and Sandy Collins as second, the job of health minister will get done.   And if Susan goes, Sandy can get the job as stand in.

Over in municipal affairs, Fairity O’Brien will fill in.

And if Susan Sullivan jumps into the race – as she should given Paul Davis’ weak, amateurish  launch on Wednesday - there’s someone to replace her, using the same table.

Pas de sweat.

If Tom needs to have someone fill in on a temporary basis other than the alternates table,  he can do that using powers in the Executive Council Act and something called the Crown or Royal Prerogative.  It takes a cabinet order but surely the crowd running the place can manage to do that, as they did in 2013,  all without the show of a cabinet shuffle.  It’s really just paper work after all.

-srbp-

The Mulligan Race begins #nlpoli

By the end of the week, the provincial Conservatives will have the leadership race they deliberately avoided the last time out.  That’s the one that ended with the Coleman fiasco.

It will be different in at least two ways:  first, there will actually be a race, in the sense that there will be three competitors.  Second,  unless someone shows up who no one has even whispered about yet, the race will be comprised entirely of party insiders.

Last time out, if you can cast your mind back three or four months,  people like Steve Kent – who will launch his campaign on Thursday – insisted that the party needed a fresh face from outside the circle of people running the party from the inside.

Commemoration Day, 2014 #nlpoli

Tread softly here! Go reverently and slow!
Let your soul go down upon its knees
And with bowed head, and heart abased strive hard
To grasp the future gain in the sore loss!
For not one foot of this dank sod but drank
Its surfeit of the blood of gallant men.
Who for their faith their hope – for life and liberty
Here made the sacrifice – here gave their lives
And gave right willingly – for you and me.

-srbp-

Paying everyone but ourselves #nlpoli

Nalcor boss Ed Martin told everyone in the province last week that his pet project has increased in price by almost another billion dollars.  It’s now more than $8.0 billion, when the 2010 price was $5.0 billion.

That wasn’t news.  Martin and the provincial government knew that last December, as SRBP pointed out last December.  We’ve known it since last year.  Martin and the provincial government just refused to tell the people paying for the project about it when the people building it knew the costs.

Martin insists it is still cheapest.  We know that isn’t true because Nalcor plans to buy cheaper electricity from elsewhere and import it here over the Maritime Link while charging local consumers for electricity that is far more expensive but that they aren’t getting. 

Martin also said something to the effect that we are just paying ourselves for this project and the electricity anyway.  That’s not true either.

We are paying everyone but ourselves.

Muskrat Falls costs break $8.0 billion #nlpoli

$6.99 billion is the new cost estimate for the Muskrat Falls dam and the link to the island.

With that much money and with such a record of inaccurate forecasts,  giving a cost estimate to two decimal places could only be a terribly cynical attempt at humour by the highly paid people running Nalcor. 

Seriously. 

Did Ed Martin, Gil Bennett and Dawn Dalley really think that people wouldn’t recognise the oldest and most transparent bit of retail psychology on the planet and think this project wouldn’t cost $7.0 billion?

No.

It’s almost $7.0 billion.

Anyway…

The ATIPPA Review Round-Up #nlpoli

Tuesday’s video is available at parcnl.ca.

Your humble e-scribbler is Number 2 on June 25. 

At the front end of the Number 1 video is Vaughn Hammond of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business.  he made some really solid comments about a problem some of his members have been running into since Bill 29.  They used to rely on access to information in order to get information to bid on tenders.  In a competitive industry, such as some of the suppliers Hammond represents,  disclosing information helps get a better price for taxpayers.

parcnl.ca #nlpoli

If you want your SRBP fix this Wednesday morning check out the Privacy and Access Review Committee hearings at 11:00 AM.

They are streaming it live at parcnl.ca.

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Summer Political Reading List #nlpoli

If you are looking for some political reading over the summer, here are a few books worth checking out.

Tragedy in the Commons by Alison Loat and Michael MacMillan. Here’s the whole Random House blurb: 

In Tragedy in the Commons, Alison Loat and Michael MacMillan, founders of the non-partisan think tank Samara, draw on an astonishing eighty exit interviews with former Members of Parliament from across the political spectrum to unearth surprising observations about the practice of politics in Canada.

Though Canada is at the top of international rankings of democracies, Canadians themselves increasingly don’t see politics as a way to solve society’s problems. Small wonder. In the news, they see grandstanding in the House of Commons and MPs pursuing agendas that don’t always make sense to the people who elected them.

Grassroots #nlpoli

You’ll likely hear a lot of talk from Conservatives over the next few weeks about their “grassroots.” 

Trevor Taylor, for one mentioned them twice last week when talking about the aftermath of the Coleman fiasco.  The Conservatives need a contest that will “mobilize” the grassroots,  according to Taylor.  They need a leader who can “connect with the grassroots.”

The only problem for Trevor is that the party doesn’t have any grassroots.

Welcome Back, Cochrane #nlpoli

If you are needing a political fix this weekend you can get two of the better variety online.

David Cochrane is back from an extended absence and to celebrate, he’s clacked out a synopsis of recent going’s on in the Conservative leadership fiasco.  He’s got all the details of stuff that’s been flying around town, right down to the story about how the victims of the Friday Night Massacre found their security passes to the building cut off while they were trying to move out that fateful Friday.

Nothing was further from the truth #nlpoli

A decade ago,  the offshore regulatory board reduced its estimate of the recoverable reserves in the Terra Nova field from 405 million barrels  to 354 million barrels.

Danny Williams was trying to squeeze additional transfer payments out of the federal government in the guise of getting provincial oil royalties that the federal government supposedly took back.

The whole thing was a fraud of the first magnitude but hundreds of thousands of people in Newfoundland and Labrador fell for it.

Taking nothing out #nlpoli

Sometimes a comment is so profoundly revealing you just can’t let it slide by.

This one came from Milly Brown, the Premier’s communications director, in an exchange with Simon Lono on Twitter on Wednesday.  And just so everyone knows up front, this is not from Milly’s personal account, if she has one.  It’s a comment from Milly in her official capacity.

Wednesday Quickies #nlpoli

As your humble e-scribbler spent time on Tuesday finishing off a presentation to the ATIPPA inquiry next week  (11 AM, 25 June),  here are a couple of quickies you might find interesting:

1. In light of the chatter about polls in the Ontario election, here’s yet another commentary on the general uselessness of horse-race polls, despite the fact news media love them.Yet another argument against horse-race polls.  Via  Monkey Cage.
2. “How oil helps dictatorships survive” is another exploration of the connection between oil wealth and a decrease in competitive politics.

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Premier Mulligan #nlpoli

The news on Monday was not Frank Coleman’s announcement.

The news was in the reaction of provincial Conservatives to word that Coleman wouldn’t be Premier after all.

They skipped past the obligatory expressions of concern over Coleman’s unspecified family problem and quickly went on to talk up the chances the party now had to hold a “proper” leadership contest.
Conservatives were relieved that Frank was gone.  You could almost hear the collective sigh of relief.

Understanding election polls #nlpoli

If you want to get a decent discussion of the Ontario election results and the way polling research tracked the campaign, take a look at a piece from The Star on Sunday.

The piece talks about different ways of conducting a poll – Internet panel,  live calls or automated calls – and compares the results of each technique with the election outcome and with different polls conducted during the last week of the campaign.

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Criticism #nlpoli

Take a gander at this letter to the editor of Overcast by someone using the name Samuel Wilkes.

It’s about a problem in the arts community with criticism.

We’re shit at giving it, we’re shit at getting it, respecting it, promoting it. Criticism in Newfoundland is bad.

Sometimes a cigar … #nlpoli

“Fundamentally, the [Conservative Party leadership] process works,” former Conservative cabinet minister Shawn Skinner said on CBC’s  On Point last weekend.  “It’s been proven in the past.  The party would have been better served if there’d been more candidates, but it is what it is.”

It’s a variation on what Skinner said on the same program after he confirmed he wouldn’t run.

In itself, the statement is literally true: the process delivered a leader for the party. 

But that’s about all it seemed to do. 

Pollyanna Peek-a-Boo and the Economic Unboom #nlpoli

Premier Peek-a-Boo took time out of his long, slow wander to the Premier’s Office this week to do an interview with the Grand Falls-Windsor Advertiser.

Check it out.

Frank Coleman thinks everything is fantastic in Newfoundland and Labrador. 

“Out-sourcing” social programs and policy #nlpoli

The incredible story from Ireland about the remains of 800 babies and children found in a discarded septic tank caused your humble e-scribbler to think a bit about local history.

Then this post at the Monkey Cage put it in a bigger perspective.

Air Canada to London: back again #nlpoli

How times change.

Last week, industry minister Susan Sullivan attended an announcement by Air Canada that they would be bringing back year-round direct flights between St. John’s and London.  Starting in the fall,  Air Canada will offer three direct flights a week to London.  Next summer, they’ll offer daily service. 

It’s great news for anyone who wants to travel to Europe for business or on holiday.  For that matter, if you want to get anywhere to the East,  having a flight to London is a bonus. It’s like having that daily shuttle to Newark if you want to go anywhere in the United States and further south.

At times like this, it seems like a million years ago that the same people who are running the province these days were engaged in a complete insane jihad against Air Canada for making a simple business decision. 

A farewell to Tom Marshall #nlpoli

Tom Marshall spent his last few hours ever as a member of the House of Assembly on Thursday,  as the spring session drew to a close.  Tom’s already handed in his notice and will be out of the Premier’s Office and politics around this time next month.

Marshall is decent fellow who brought sincerity, integrity, and dignity to the House and to the cabinet responsibilities he bore. He took a lot of praise from colleagues on both sides of the House on Thursday and Tom deserved every word. Tom’s short tenure as Premier began with some of the smartest moves the Conservatives have ever made.

It’s unfortunate that the end of his tenure has been marred by a series of unfortunate events. But in another sense, those events are typical of the history of the current administration.

There’s good news and there’s bad news #nlpoli

Corporate Research Associates and the provincial Conservatives played up the change in government satisfaction in the release of CRA’s quarterly advertising poll on Wednesday.

But CRA’s satisfaction numbers don’t mean anything, as regular readers of this corner recall from last month. CRA doesn’t explore “satisfaction”  to see what it means and, as you can see from the party choice numbers, voters don’t think it means much either.  The Conservatives get high government satisfaction numbers but they still indicate they’d vote for another party by a wide margin if there was an election tomorrow. 

Essentially the Conservatives today are in the same spot the Liberals were in before the 2003 election.  That is, the same spot, with one difference:  the Liberals were polling higher.  That should send a shiver up the spine of a few Conservatives.  Either that it would spur them to all sorts of imaginary crap like pretending that the Liberal vote is soft or that people are just waiting with bated breath for the real Coleman to emerge and unleash his “vision” on them.

Rather than fantasy,  let’s see what the CRA numbers might tell us if we try to keep both feet on the ground.

And then things went horribly wronger… #nlpoli

John Crosbie, the elder statesmen of Conservatives in the province took a shot at Danny Williams for his continued interference in the internal affairs of the provincial Conservatives.

Danny blew a gasket and willingly gave interviews to every media outlet in town, thereby guaranteeing that the story that can only do even more damage to the provincial Conservatives would keep going for a day longer than the Conservatives needed.

Not to be outdone,  Tweet minister Steve Kent called a couple of the local media outlets and claimed that his unique status in the Conservative leadership-race-that-never-was entitled him to refute Crosbie. Thus the story will drag on for yet another news cycle longer than the Conservatives really needed.

John, Danny, and voter apathy #nlpoli

Every now and again,  someone will talk about voter apathy. 

Last week,  Steve Kent was circulating the link to an article that claimed that youth engagement – getting young people more involved in the community and in politics – was a way of getting more people to vote at election time.

That’s what voter apathy is about, by the way:  low voter turn-out at the polls.  It’s a big issue in most of Europe and in North America.  we’ll get back to it in a minute.

Kent was so keen on this article because he is working hard to become the youth engagement guru of Newfoundland and Labrador.  He is especially proud of his first bill in the legislature – Bill 6 – that included a couple of clauses that say a town council can name people under the age of 18 years to positions called “youth representatives.” 

No sense of irony at all #nlpoli

The smart guy they could have had – but frigged over twice -  told Canadian Press:

“The understanding of the [provincial political] climate isn’t as sophisticated as it should be for those who are working with Mr. Coleman on the strategic side.”

Without knowing what the smart guy said, one of the guys supporting Mr. Coleman said: 

“I don’t think anybody ever dreamed in a million years that Frank would take the heat that he has taken over the past few months since he decided to run…”.

Playing with the Ferryman #nlpoli

The ferry service between Newfoundland and Cape Breton is economically important to the province as a whole, but it’s especially sensitive for Port aux Basques.

Marine Atlantic announced a change in the summer ferry schedule on Thursday.  The company will reduce the number of crossings daily and put one of its ferries on stand-by in the event they need it. 

This isn’t the schedule the company announced in February for its busiest season of the year but, as the company spokesperson put it in this media interviews, their original projections turned out to be high.  As a result, the company has reduced the number of schedules crossings while keeping the option of adding capacity if bookings pick up.

Grimes on Frank, Tom, and the Kami project #nlpoli

Roger Grimes’ is through his heart surgery and nice vacation and that has left him with a new vigour.

He called VOCM’s BackTalk on Tuesday to talk about the Kami project,  the Friday Night Massacre, and Humber Valley Paving.

15 minutes.

Worth the time.  [Youtube link]

Hat tip to Dave Adey for posting the audio. 

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Coleman, Marshall, and the Broken Chain of Accountability #nlpoli

The Telegram’s James McLeod started a story that appeared on 26 May with the following sentence:

Premier-designate Frank Coleman says he wants to run a premier’s office with fewer people, and he’s starting that already — six weeks before he becomes premier.

What neither McLeod, nor his editors, nor anyone else in the province’s news media seemed to wonder is how Coleman did that.  They’ve all treated events last Friday evening as normal.  They’ve reported it as routine.

According to NTV’s Mike Connors Frank Coleman said that he and Tom Marshall agreed to Friday’s events.  That is, they both agreed to sack all but a couple of Tom’s staff members and replace them gradually with people of Coleman’s choosing.

For his part, Tom Marshall insists that he appointed Coleman’s people and that there is only one Premier in the province.  That’s all beside the point, though, as Marshall well knows.

Contrasting Speeches #nlpoli

Liberal leader Dwight Ball and Conservative leader-designate Frank Coleman delivered speeches in St. John’s last week and you couldn’t have scripted more startling contrasts.

Ball delivered a speech at an event that reflected his party’s standing in the polls:  more than 500 people who paid $500 a head to attend.

Coleman spoke to a small meeting of the St. John’s Rotary Club where the audience paid a few dollars to the Club.

Thanks to the Telegram’s James McLeod,  you can compare the two speeches.  Since James posted the speeches and Coleman’s scrum to youtube,  we’ll also give you those links.

Take the time to listen to the speeches yourself, but here are some observations about the pair of them.

McGrath comments “preposterous”: surety association #nlpoli

From the industry association representing companies that provide sureties and other bonds, released May 26, 2014:

News Release
For Immediate Release: May 26, 2014

Recent remarks by Nick McGrath, Minister of Transportation and Infrastructure for Newfoundland and Labrador about the use of surety bonds on public projects are completely preposterous. So says Steve Ness, the President of the Surety Association of Canada.

“Mr. McGrath clearly doesn’t understand surety bonds; nor does he comprehend how they work to protect public construction buyers from serious losses.” said Ness. His comments were made in response to a statement made by Minister McGrath following the ministry’s decision to release Humber Valley Paving from its obligations to complete an unfinished project without making a claim on its performance surety bond. The government instead opted to see to the completion itself and has now retendered the uncompleted portion of the project. In explaining this controversial decision, McGrath stated: "If I had called in the bonds, I would not have got the job done on time and on budget," [sic (comma in original)]

The Friday Night Massacre #nlpoli

Frank Coleman recorded CBC’s On Point with Peter Cowan on Thursday or Friday afternoon.

During the show, Coleman acknowledged that he had a personal financial interest in a decision by transport minister Nick McGrath to let Humber Valley Paving out of a contract without calling the performances bonds associated with the project.  Coleman’s son –  connected to the company at the time - negotiated with department officials on behalf of the company.

Auditor General Terry Paddon is currently investigating the contract decision based on a request from Premier Tom Marshall.

Whether McGrath should have called the bonds is another question.  But Coleman told CBC that he had personally guaranteed the bonds.  As a result, he would have been personally on the hook for the bond despite the fact he had sold his interest in Humber Valley Paving three days before his son contacted the department about the contract. 

Whether McGrath would have called the bonds or should have is another matter.

Coleman recorded the show well before it aired.  But what happened on Friday evening caught everyone by surprise.

Tom Marshall’s puppet government #nlpoli

Whatever is going on in the Premier’s Office these days, it isn’t an orderly and organized transition from one premier to another.

That’s certain.

Every transition from one premier to another since 1949 - whether it involved a change of party or not - has happened in a matter of a few days or at most a couple of weeks. Your humble e-scribbler was directly involved in two of them and is familiar with most of the rest.

News on Friday that Tom Marshall had fired all but two of his staff doesn’t look like any transition anyone has ever seen.

Politics and the Fishery #nlpoli

For those who missed it, here’s the podcast from the Fisheries Broadcast for May 22, complete with your humble e-scribbler talking about politics and the fishery.

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Another inside deal #nlpoli

If you want to get a sense of how the New Democratic Party convention actually ran last weekend, take a few minutes and listen to Tony Adey’s interview on CBC’s Corner Brook Morning Show.

Adey attended the convention but announced afterward that he was leaving the party.  Adey believes that the convention was stacked and that more New Democrats want to see major changes in the party than the convention vote suggested.

He noted that the chair of the meeting wouldn’t allow debate on the motion about whether or not hold a leadership convention.  For all that, they still had to spend 45 minutes answering questions as many of the delegates couldn’t tell if a yes vote would mean the party wouldn’t have a leadership review.  Adey also said there was a discrepancy between the number in the room for the vote and the tally of ballots.  More people voted, apparently, than were officially in the room.

The most forceful point Adey made in the speech is that Lorraine Michael believes she can be Premier while many people in the party believe that Lorraine has to go so that the party can attract new candidates and move forward.

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Nalcor and Conflict of Interest #nlpoli

Is anyone else having trouble trying to figure out what all the fuss is about Cathy Bennett, Nalcor, and conflict of interest?

Seriously.

Here’s the story in a nutshell.

Kremlinology 47: If only saying it made it so #nlpoli

According to New Democratic Party leader Lorraine Michael, the party convention this past weekend was “a room of people who are saying, 'we're new, we're moving forward.'" [quote via CBC]

Would that merely saying the words made it so.

The reality is that the party isn’t new.  They aren’t moving forward either, except in the sense that time moves only in one direction and the province’s New Democrats are willing to watch the clock.  

Always read the large print #nlpoli

The Conference Board of Canada released a report last week that assessed economic performance in each of the provinces in Canada.

“The resource-driven economies of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador can boast A+ grades for their economic performance,” read the first sentence of the news release accompanying the report, titled How Canada Performs: Economy.

Amazing stuff and more than a few people  - most likely provincial Conservatives – stuck their chest out in pride.  They should have read the big print in the report.  The first sentence is more than a wee bit misleading.

The left-wing conservatives #nlpoli

In 2010,  the provincial Conservatives had a chance to reinvigorate their party in time for the 2011 general election.  They deliberately stuck with an interim leader in order to avoid what they considered a potentially divisive leadership contest.

After the 2011 election, the Conservatives kept Kathy Dunderdale, even though she’s made it clear when Danny Williams quit in 2010 that she was planning to retire and had no further political agenda or objectives of her own.

Kathy Dunderdale finally decided to retire in 2014.  The Conservatives had a second chance to reinvigorate their party.  They chose to pass on the chance, opting for a leader picked by some sort of back-room deal.

The Fruits of a Poisonous Shrub #nlpoli

Senator Fabian Manning says that the 2008 Anything but Conservative campaign is stilling hurting the province in dealing with the federal government.

“There's no doubt in my mind that the ABC campaign,”  Manning told CBC’s Fisheries Broadcast,” [that] we pay a price for that, and people can shrug it off and say, 'That's just an excuse,' but I've been around this game too long now to not know that without a voice here at the table we are at a major disadvantage." [via CBC]

The disadvantage Manning referred to was the lack of a regional minister in the current cabinet who represents a riding in Newfoundland and Labrador. Some people might be tempted to dismiss Manning’s comments at sour grapes. After all, the ABC campaign cost Manning not only his seat in the House but also his chance for a seat in cabinet.

On that point, though, Manning is right. The regional minister is a key player in Ottawa and the province has undoubtedly suffered to one degree another by not having such an influential voice at the federal cabinet table.

The Bicycle Roads to Nowhere #nlpoli

Frecker Drive is a well-designed residential street in the west end of St. John’s.  The street is wide:  you can park cars on either side and still have space left for two cars to pass abreast easily along its entire length.

This is a residential street.  As you might imagine, it has its fair share of cars and trucks as well as the odd bicycle.  They’ve been able to live together safely on the street because it is wide and the traffic flow is relatively light.

When the city planners decided to bring bicycle lanes to the City of St. John’s a couple of years ago, they settled on Frecker Drive.  They banned parking from one side of the street.  And on both sides of the street they marked out two bi-directional bicycle lanes for the full length of the avenue.

Getting On Point back from No Point #nlpoli

For years, the only public affairs show on television or radio in Newfoundland and Labrador was Issues and Answers.  NTV’s Sunday morning staple has long been ponderous and boring and it remains so. 

CBC’s On Point promised to add some life to the political world.  But while it was interesting early on and it’s had some big moments since then, the show quickly became yet another venue for government talking points or – even worse – the same tired talking heads.

The talking heads on any given panel seldom say anything insight or useful.  And, if you look at the people on the panel, they never seem to make sense.

Promises, promises… 2003 contracts and tendering edition #nlpoli

In light of the controversy about Humber Valley Paving, here are some of the Conservative promises made in 2003 about contracts and public tendering, controls on political donations, special committees of the legislature, and disclosure of lobbying activities.

Each of them bears on the HVP tendering controversy in one way or another.  You humble e-scribbler has highlighted some of the sentences in bold because they contrast so starkly with that the Conservatives did once they got into office. 

Note the bit about revising the Public Tender Act.  The Conservatives promised it in 2003.  They gave notice that they planned to introduce a new public tendering law in the spring 2012 session of the legislature.  And then it disappeared.  They promised campaign finance reform and did nothing once in office.

Enjoy!

A beautiful waste

Exploring the world underneath New York City,  via The Atlantic:

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The market is closed, Ken. #nlpoli

Part of the problem the folks at Nalcor have had in trying to build support for on Muskrat Falls is that they never explain things completely, in plain English.

The result is that they look like they are hiding something .That is, they look like they are not being candid or sincere.  They often come across as if they are not telling you the whole story.

Take as a fine example, the war of words that is erupting between Nalcor board chair Ken Marshall on the one hand and David Vardy and Ron Penney on the other. Marshall had a lengthy op-ed piece one Saturday,  Vardy and Penney had a rebuttal on April 19 and now Marshall is back again.

Keep the momentum going #nlpoli

Frank Coleman’s idea for change in Newfoundland and Labrador is to keep everything the way it is.

As CBC reported in March, “Coleman said one of his priorities if he assumed the role of premier would be to maintain the economic momentum created by the Tories.”

He might even want to roll back the clock a bit, too, on some things.

But on economic policy,  Coleman is firmly committed to the Conservative plan to use public money to subsidize private sector businesses. 

Weak Questions get Weak Answers #nlpoli

Nalcor’s effort to have local taxpayers subsidize electricity exports to Massachusetts came up in the House of Assembly on Thursday.

Well, sort of came up.

New Democratic Party leader Lorraine Michael asked a couple of lame questions and got – not surprisingly  - a few equally lame answers.

Here they are, in their entirety.

And no birds sang #nlpoli

Farley Mowat passed away on May 7, 2014, aged 92. 

The prolific Canadian writer and environmentalist was just shy of his 93rd birthday on May 12.

Mowat was also a veteran of the Second World War. In Canada, we mark the end of the war on May 8. He served as an officer with the Hastings and Prince Edward Regiment in Italy and northwest Europe. He led an infantry platoon in Italy.  Later, Mowat was an intelligence officer in Holland where, for a while,  he was part of the Canadian museum collection team  finding artefacts for the Canadian war museum.

Mowat wrote about his experiences in three books:  The regiment (1955),  And no birds sang (1979),  and My father’s son (1993).

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Nalcor promising Boston cheap electricity courtesy of NL taxpayers #nlpoli

Muskrat Falls is over budget, big time. The latest estimate is $7.4 billion and climbing on a project that was forecast at $5.0 billion just four years ago.

The project will wind up behind schedule, most likely.

There’s a good chance Nalcor won’t have enough control over water flows on the Churchill River to meet its forecast firm generating capacity from the smaller dam let alone the theoretical project at Gull Island.

But that hasn’t stopped Nalcor from pitching Muskrat Falls and Gull Island to the good folks of Massachusetts with electricity at prices that would be – conservatively – about one third of what Nalcor’s owners will have to pay for electricity from Muskrat Falls.

Power and Influence #nlpoli

If nothing else, the controversy over the sweet heart deal the provincial Conservatives cut with Frank Coleman’s son at Humber Valley Paving should dispel the fairy tale that Coleman and his family are political outsiders.

They are very much the quintessential political insiders.

Transportation minister Nick McGrath admitted to reporters on Tuesday that he’d never been involved in a negotiation before about road paving contracts like the one with Gene Coleman for Humber Valley Paving. 

That takes juice. In itself, that should give an idea as to why the deal stands out in people’s minds and why the Coleman influence is obviously so strong.  The Coleman influence is so strong, in fact, that it clouds people’s minds.

HVP controversy deepens #nlpoli

[In a hole with a jack-hammer update  at bottom]

The controversy around Humber Valley Paving got worse for the provincial Conservatives on Monday as transportation minister Nick McGrath confirmed that he actually released $19 million in performance and goods bond’s supplied by the paving company despite the fact they failed to complete the tender as original awarded.

But that’s not all.

Put McGrath’s comments in the House on Monday together with media reports last week and you have a pretty clear picture of the pretty sweet deal McGrath cut with HVP.

The House comes back… what’s on the menu? #nlpoli

Nice to be wrong update:  The Liberals started Question Period on Monday hammering the Conservatives over the Humber Valley Paving controversy.

This is a big story with huge implications.

Original post follows

________________________________

 

As far as when Frank Coleman might find the time to get around to taking over the Premier’s job, not much as it seems. 

It’s till vague, undefined, and potentially will happen quite some time from now.

He appeared on VOCM Open Line on Friday and still talked about wanting to take the job some unspecified time after July 5th.  As for when he will get a seat in the House, Coleman is still talking – hypothetically – about some unspecified time in “the fall.”

Some people might think the cabinet shuffle changed a lot.  The Telegram editorial board is hung up on the cost.

Meh.

Cabinet Shuffle Bored #nlpoli

The provincial Conservative Party is in the midst of such an intense revival of interest only about a dozen people turned out on Wednesday night for the annual general meeting of the district association in Mount Pearl South.

They were there to elect delegates to the party convention in July.  Even though there’s no leadership contest, you’d expect that a party on the rebound might manage to attract more than 12 or so to a delegate selection meeting.

A few weeks ago all of 126 people turned out in Charlene Johnson’s district and that was when they actually still had a leadership race.  That’s 10 times the number that showed up in Mount Pearl.  It is still a far cry from what the Liberals – in about the same spot in 2001 as the Conservatives these days - managed to turn out in their leadership contest at the time.  It’s also a far cry from what Conservatives turned out in their past either.

Renewal and revival just aren’t what they used to be or what they seem or something.

Muskrat costs at $7.4 billion … and climbing #nlpoli

After 13 days,  Nalcor boss Ed martin finally responded to a simple request from the Telegram’s James McLeod for an explanation of what impact a delay in construction might have on project interest costs.

Read McLeod’s original article from Wednesday Telly.  it’s a tidy summary of what Martin told him about that specific issue.

The problem for taxpayers is that Martin did his usual job of only talking about what he wanted to talk about. He didn’t try to explain the whole thing to McLeod in such a way that he could actually get the full impact of what was going on. 

Martin’s interview was highly political, in other words.  Unfortunately for Martin, McLeod posted back-up information consisting of the audio of the whole interview plus a couple of pages of background from Nalcor.  They reveal a lot more than the company has previously disclosed.

White Knight #nlpoli

The Alberta Conservatives are looking for a new leader. The old one quit last month amid a caucus revolt and a loss of popularity in polls.

Former federal cabinet minister Jim Prentice is interested in the job, as are a few provincial cabinet ministers.

A source close to the campaign told CBC that Prentice will make an announcement in a few weeks “at which time he will outline his vision for the province.”

According to the Calgary Herald, some of the likely contenders might drop out once Prentice confirms that he is in. According to the Herald:

Political analyst Duane Bratt from Mount Royal University said with Prentice now running to be the next premier, he expects the PC leadership contest will “not be competitive” as the former MP gains support from across the party.

Unlike other would-be candidates from within the Tory cabinet ranks, Prentice won’t carry any of the baggage of the unpopular decisions tied to the Redford government, he noted.

“He’s coming in as the white knight,” said Bratt.

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Decisive Leadership in Action #nlpoli

How hard can it be for someone to figure out when they want to start a job?

Seriously.

A job you want, mind you, not one you have been forced to take a gunpoint.

Apparently, Frank Coleman has finally figured out when he wants to start being Premier.

He has settled on July.

Sort of.

Kremlinology 46: Premier Peek-a-Boo and the Dog Whistle #nlpoli

In a scrum with reporters after a public meeting about the Corner Brook hospital last Thursday,  Frank Coleman showed he has picked up the tendency of some politicians to talk about themselves in the plural.

The reporters asked about Coleman’s tendency to shun media interviews and to pop up here as if he were playing peek-a-boo. 

“We” had a strategy, Coleman told them,  of talking to the “family” first and “we” would get to everyone else after.  Coleman contrasted that with the opponent he wouldn’t name who spent a lot of time talking to “mainstream media” instead.

That’s a noticeable choice of words – “family” and “mainstream media” just like it is curious the way he referred to what will happen when he becomes “leader”.

Cognitive Dissonance #nlpoli

People like things in life to fit together.

When things don’t fit together, people get upset.  They get fidgety.  They try to make things fit together.

It’s an idea regular readers know from other posts.  Take this bit from a post from 2012 as a good example of how some people react when faced with a situation where what is happening doesn’t fit with their pre-conceived notions. The context was a decision by then-Premier Kathy Dunderdale to refuse to meet with the parents of a boy who had  died tragically.

Prepared Statements and Unprepared Politicians #nlpoli

CBC Radio’s St. John’s Morning Show is so off-put by politicians who issue prepared statements that they’ve found a former journalist turned journalism professor to discuss the growing trend not only in this province, but elsewhere.  Interviews are important, said professor, because then journalists can ask questions and get more information.

If CBC really wanted to get into this issue, they wouldn’t ask a journalism prof.  They’d be asking someone from the public relations or communications side of the street.  That person could explain the value of using many approaches to send information, not just the prepared statement.

You see,  prepared statements themselves aren’t the problem. They aren’t necessarily part of some growing and troubling trend, either.

Plan 9 from Columbus Drive #nlpoli

Some enterprising political science graduate student will be able to write a brilliant doctoral dissertation a few years from now on the parallel ideas in provincial politics and popular situation comedy.

She will find fertile ground in the Big Bang Theory, especially the episode the in which Sheldon explains a complex idea in physics theory using the analogy of a cat in a box that may be either alive or dead based on a random earlier event.

Nalcor, for example, is like a giant box filled with Erwin Schrodinger’s cats.

Strategically Unwise and other political own-goals #nlpoli

Depending on which interview you listened to on Tuesday,  Tom Marshall would be hanging around as Premier until the end of the summer.

At least.

That’s the VOCM story.

Marshall will run the place for two full months after the Conservative convention in early July while Coleman runs around the province attending all sorts of summer festivals.

Meanwhile, on CBC,  Peter Cowan said in his report on Tuesday evening that Marshall expects to hand over the Premier’s job shortly after the Conservative party meeting in early July.

Which is it?

That’s a good question, but there’s no clear answer.

Four days late and a few dollars short #nlpoli

Premier-in-waiting Frank Coleman did speak to the Telegram on Monday evening about the controversy that has been raging all weekend over his views on abortion and what that might mean for public policy in the province.

Coleman chose to issue a statement on Friday that didn’t address the central issues.  He was silent all weekend and unavailable to other media all day Monday.

That only made Coleman’s problem  of a big lack of legitimacy and credibility  all that much worse, of course.

Late on Monday, Coleman has tried to put the controversy behind him, but he will have a fair bit of work to do.

Crazy Train Wreck #nlpoli

Premier-in-waiting Frank Coleman was off in Toronto on Monday – reputedly undergoing intensive media training -  and so he wasn’t willing to talk to reporters about anything, least of all the controversy about his views on abortion.

When Bill Barry dropped out of the Conservative leadership on Thursday, Coleman became the leader by default.  The only thing left is for the party insiders figured out when they wanted him in the job.  That’s not a joke.  That’s pretty much what Coleman said last week after Barry bailed.

Other than that, Coleman issued yet another official statement rather than talk to people.  And when controversy erupted about his support of the province’s Right to Life group, Coleman issued another statement.

Memorial University political scientist Stephen Tomblin offered CBC some scathing comments on Monday about Coleman’s performance thus far.