The first forecast for negative economic growth in 2010

According to the Conference Board of Canada’s latest economic projections for the provinces,  province’s that are down this year are going up next year.

All except one.

Newfoundland and Labrador’s economy is forecast to shrink 3.6% this year but the Board has now said that the local economy will also contract another half percent in 2010.  The Board doesn’t anticipate a return to growth in Newfoundland and Labrador until 2011.

It put Newfoundland and Labrador in a category of its own. That province is expected to post the biggest GDP decline this year at 3.6% and is the only provincial economy forecast by the Conference Board to contract (by 0.5%) in 2010. The board said the province was hurt by declines in forestry, mining and manufacturing this year, and offshore oil drilling is expected to remain at depressed levels next year.

Incidentally, VOCM missed the importance of that entirely.

The forecast contraction for Newfoundland and Labrador this year is the largest in the country for 2009, incidentally.

Now all of that make as a complete mockery of the line coming from local politicians.  After the collapse last year, the Premier talked about the province being protected by an economic bubble last year.  That turned out to be a version of the St. John’s Harbour bubble apparently.

And just within the past couple of weeks, environment minister Charlene Johnson was out telling a local Rotary Club audience about how the province was well positioned to weather the economic storm due to the wonderful things done by the crowd she’s a part of.

Well that’s another issue.

There’s no question however, the economic bubble was entirely fictitious.

The Conference Board projection is in line with the actual oil revenue data for the first half of 2009 that Bond Papers brought you exclusively earlier this week. it shows royalties are down 57% for the same period in 2008 and that they are 15% below the government’s own forecast thus far.

Oil production is also down.  In the first six months of fiscal 2009, production is  running about 29% below the same period in 2008.

Add to that personal income tax. Last year, personal income tax (PIT) generated $899,460, 000 in government revenue.  That works out to $4, 037 for each of the 220, 300 people working in the province, full-time and part-time.  You can find those figures using information in the provincial government’s own financial documents tabled with the budget last spring.

Government lowballed the number for its 2009 budget, projecting PIT at $786 million.  That’s despite expected growth in income  - yes, they forecast more income going around - and a decline in employment of only 2,000.  That $786 million is about $100 million below what the government’s own numbers would work out to be, incidentally.  That’s why the ones actually published in the Estimates are said to be low-balled.

Job losses are currently running higher than forecast.  In October it was 5,400 for the same month in 2008.  Now word publicly on wages but working with the provincial government’s figures and the actual performance you would bring personal income tax in at around $870 million.  (4037 X 215,000)  Now that’s a rough estimate.

Even if PIT went to the same number as last year by some quirk, it still wouldn’t offset the forecast decline in oil revenues and the drop that came in mining and the forestry sector.

The government is on track to get the budget they forecast.  There won’t be any surprises, like discovering that despite all the posturing and puffing about being a have province, the government actually opted to switch formulas and collect Equalization in 2008.  They did that, incidentally, five months after Danny Williams made his great “have province” speech at the November Tory fundraiser. It was a spectacular poll goose but it was also a fraud since the provincial government knew the numbers and cabinet knew that it would not make its Equalization election until the following March.  There is more to being a have province than a political speech, a poll goose and a rip-off video.

But that, too is another issue.

There are serious issues to be faced in the months ahead.  The people of Newfoundland and Labrador are only just now starting to see the signs.

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What Hydro Quebec gets in the Maritimes

Quebec Premier Jean Charest revealed today that Hydro Quebec has started negotiations to take over electricity delivery on Prince Edward island.

He made the announcement at a major energy conference in Boston that brought together every major actor in the energy business on the north-eastern part of the continent. 

Hot on the heels of news about Hydro Quebec’s deal to buy NB Power, this is hardly surprising. 

Hydro Quebec has seen its revenues from electricity exports shrink by about 30% over last year.  There’s little chance of that rebounding in the near term as the Untied States gropes its way out of a recession.

There’s hardly a better place for Hydro Quebec to go hunting for new customers than New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island.  In both places, electricity rates are in no danger of dropping.  Hydro Quebec has a pile of power and no place to sell it. they’ve also got the cash ready to go.

Sounds like a match made in heaven.

Hydro Quebec has deep enough pockets to buy up the financial mess known as NB Power, deliver electricity rate relief to New Brunswick consumers and make good money when a hunk of Quebec electricity would normally be making a better return somewhere else.

Watch for the same sort of deal in Prince Edward Island.

It works for everyone.  What’s been missing in all the second rate commentary, hype and pure political bullshit flowing in Atlantic Canada these past few weeks is that Hydro Quebec is cutting a straight up business deal in the Maritimes.  They are in business to make money and make money they will.

When the American markets rebound Hydro Quebec will be ready with its existing generating capability, the 8,500 megawatts in development through wind and hydro in Quebec, Point LePreau,  and the hydro in New Brunswick and the wind generation that has been and will be developed in both PEI and New Brunswick.

All of that is considerably closer to American markets than the Lower Churchill.  It will be shipped over existing infrastructure.  Any new power lines that are needed will be shorter and considerably less costly to develop than either new lines through Quebec from Labrador.  let’s not even talk about the so-called Anglo-Saxon route.  It was ludicrously expensive in 1965 and it remains so the better part of a half century later.

There’s no surprise, in all this, that the Newfoundland and Labrador energy corporation and Premier Danny Williams decided to stay away from a meeting of anybody who is anybody in energy in New England and Eastern Canada.

Not only would there be the embarrassment of being in the room for Charest’s announcement, they’d also have to spend two days with a bunch of people who know the real score on the Lower Churchill.  These people just don’t have the time or the inclination to have smoke blown up their backsides.  They’ve got better things to do.

No surprise either that the same day the big news breaks in Boston, the provincial government here announced a one day junket to New York to talk about an imaginary future energy project  and other what-ifs with an unknown group of people.  They’ll turn out for the free nosh, if nothing else, and back home the locals can just cover this as if it was news.

Hydro Quebec went to the Maritimes and it’s been picking up assets, customers and future earning potential on both sides of the border along the way.

Danny, Kathy and Ed are going to New York for a few hours.

Bet they won’t come back with much more than a few souvenir pictures of Danny, Ed, Kathy and Liz standing in front of the Ed Sullivan Theatre.

It’s right around the corner from the Hilton on Avenue of the Americas.

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Another good Lower Churchill question

Ok.

So the political theatre that is the Lower Churchill project is now pulling into a another location already mapped out on the route.

It is a route pre-determined by amendments to the Electrical Power Control Act in 2007 but only put into force this past January.

That’s right.

2007.

Two whole years ago.

Because the provincial government’s energy corporation couldn’t reach a deal on water management on the Churchill River with Churchill Falls (Labrador) Corporation, the whole thing is headed off to the public utilities board where the Premier’s hand-picked appointee and a couple of other people will oversee the imposition of an agreement.

Hands up anyone who thinks the water management agreement that inevitably results from this process will not be exactly what the government’s energy corporation wants it to be.

And what exactly makes this some sort of giant obstacle supposedly thrown by  Hydro Quebec to the development of a project which – as of this moment – has no customers, no financing and which, by the Premier’s own version of things is not even close to being started?

Good question.

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How lucky are we, again?

Energy analyst Tom Adams recently wrote that “Newfoundlanders are lucky that Nalcor, their Crown energy company, is not out in the market the trying to sell high cost power right now.”

Yep.

We’re lucky alright.

Really lucky.

No one would ever head to New York City to try and flog a very expensive project at a time when energy prices are low and capital is really hard to come by to build the project in the first place.

Not on your life.

“We will showcase Newfoundland and Labrador as a prospective location for investment and focus specifically on our province’s potential as a long-term producer of competitive and reliable green energy through the Lower Churchill project.”

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It’s Fire Truck Season now?

Well if Tom Hedderson is putting on his firefighter’s hat to go visit Joan Burke, you know it’s either to announce another fire truck, officially kick off the November sweeps month with the government’s official pollster or both.

At this rate fire trucks could be the key to keeping those government-paid polls artificially government-goosed.

Zombie News Update:  Not only did Tom show up to announce a fire truck, he also showed up to announce money for capital works that have already been completed or which will be completed in a couple of weeks.

Holy blatant poll goose Batman.

Talk about the hypocrisy of recycling old money announcements for fairly blatant political gain.

 

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Flu Trends – using the Internet to spot emerging health concerns

By now some of you will be familiar with Google’s Flu Trends, a website that shows in general form, the intensity of Google search activity for keywords related to influenza, by country and region.

The trending analysis is shown both as a map and in a graph which you can access by clicking on the country and then the region within the country.

That’s the one for Newfoundland and Labrador, at right.

The lighter blue lines represent the search patterns in prior years.  The dark blue one is 2009.

Now right away, the big, sudden jump might catch your attention.

But look for a second in the period just before that.  Note the steady increase in activity.  That means that within the province – starting in early September there was an increase in google searches in this province using terms related to influenza. 

That includes symptoms.  Someone types in “aches + fever + cough”  or something along those lines and then clicks to see what websites come back in the search results.

Increasing numbers of people are using the Internet to search for information about medical conditions.  They could be looking to diagnose themselves – not a good idea – or for things they know, like colds and flu, they may just be looking for some simple information on treating their symptoms.

Not surprisingly there is an online journal –started a decade ago – that is dedicated to health research and the Internet.  There are even terms for the study of information trends online.  Infodemiology is basically the Google Flu trends sort of thing.  It’s about finding and analysing trends in information about health, how it is found and how it is passed around.   Infoveillance is taking all the information gathered in infodemiology and figuring out what it means.

To get a sense of what this is about, you can skim through a slide show by Gunther Eysenbach, a physician and associate professor of health policy at the University of Toronto. Dr. Eysenbach demonstrates how it is possible to use the Internet to gather information both formally through things like online surveys or by collecting tweets and similar information information to spot trends.

The value of this form of intelligence gathering and analysis should be pretty obvious:  those responsible for delivering health care in an emergency can spot any trends and hopefully be prepared.  It’s like monitoring seismic activity or other geological information to see if there is a way of predicting earthquakes. online surveillance for these health purposes is also very similar in some respects to police agencies that use similar pattern-searches  to get advance warning of terrorist or other criminal activity.

Analysing the information in things like tweets can also be a good source of feedback for health policy experts as to what information is in demand or what information is being shared.  Eysenbach conducted a study of tweets during the spring outbreak of H1N1.  In a sample of 400 tweets drawn from a total of 300,000 collected by his system, Eysenbach found that

News posts were the most common type of information shared (46%) followed by public health education (19.18%) and H1N1-related humour (18.25%). 36.75% of all posts quoted news articles verbatim and provided URLs to the source. 

Take that, CNN and USA Today!

His research was prompted by news reports that suggested social media  - like Twitter and facebook - was fuelling rumour, misinformation and hysteria and thereby feeding a panic about H1N1.

This is just one aspect of a much larger change currently underway in society. In researching social media and health issues, your humble e-scribbler came across trending analysis using the Internet.

Fascinating, as Spock would say.

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AG report makes up old recommendation, gives no real update on small business program

The section of the recently released auditor general update report that deals with small business fund in the provincial innovation department relies on a recommendation that wasn’t contained in the initial report.

All the same, the report claims that the department has begun complying with the AG recommendations for a 2007 review.

The invented recommendation and supposed compliance are also included – apparently – among the 80% of the recommendations the 2009 AG report claims have been acted on within two years.

According to the 2009 update, the lone recommendation on the small business fund was this:

The Department should ensure all required documentation is on file to
support applications, payments for funding and monitoring.

But the original report – released in early 2008 - contained a total of five recommendations, none of which was the one cited by auditor general John Noseworthy in 2009:

The third real recommendation – related to security for disbursed funds - is particularly important since one of the companies apparently reviewed by the initial audit has since gone belly up.

There is no reference to the bankruptcy in the 2009 update report nor does the auditor general discuss at all whether or not the public money in the company was secured.

There was also no reference to the first recommendation from 2007. That one suggested there may be no legal basis for the department to operate the fund in the way it had been operated in the first place.

In fact, there’s no reference at all in the 2009 review to how the fund actually operates three years after the period covered by the first review.

Compare that, however, to the significant problems found in the 2007 report:

• there was “no explicit authority under the Financial Administration Act for the Department to make direct investments in companies” and yet in a single year the department made three investments totalling “$1,050,000 to three companies”;
• There were “no documented procedures for approving, disbursing and monitoring such unique investments and, as a result, these investments were not subject to the same due diligence required for investments under the SME Fund. “
• “[N]one of the three companies were required to repay the investment
  contingent on either income earned or a maximum seven year period;”
• “one company was not required to submit documentation to support
  specific expenditures;”
• “shareholders for one company (Knowledge-based IT Company A) who received $500,000 were not required to make new equity investments as part of their contribution to the project; instead, previous investments were accepted;”
• “shareholders for one company (Knowledge-based IT Company B) who received $500,000 were not required to provide personal net worth statements;” and
• “Department officials were not entitled to attend any company meetings for one company (Knowledge-based IT Company B) even though the company was provided with funding totalling $500,000.”

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Oil production down by almost 29% in first half of FY 2009

Oil production in Fiscal Year 2009 (Apr 09 – Mar 10) is on track to fall below even the low-ball estimates used in the spring provincial budget. 

The provincial government estimated oil production in 2009 would be 98 million barrels.  That’s 21% below 2008, based on the production for Calendar Year 2008 (Jan to Dec) of 125.3 million barrels.*

Actual production in the first half of the fiscal year was 44.5 million barrels (mbbls), according to figures available from the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board.  Average monthly production has been 7.42 mbbls.

By comparison, in the first six months of FY 2008, production was 62.5 mbbls with a monthly average of 10.41 mbbls.

Oil production from the three fields offshore was down 41% in August 2009 compared to August 2008.  There was also 39% less oil pumped in May 2009 and 34% less in September 2009 on a year over year comparison.

Total oil production in FY 2008 was 123.4 mbbls.  That means that production in the second half of 2008 was actually below production in the first half of the year.

While it isn’t inconceivable that production will ramp up between September and March, it seems unlikely to hit the 2008 average production level of 10.41 mbbls per month. 

That’s about what would be needed to generate any significant oil revenues above the budget projections, and using current prices.

	FY 2008	FY 2009	% +/-
Apr	10, 616, 444	9, 116, 213	-14
May	11, 403, 549	6, 915, 304	-39
Jun	8, 978, 865	7, 374, 739	-18
Jul	11, 288, 144	8, 629, 918	-24
Aug	11, 085, 392	6, 537, 149	-41
Sep	9, 400, 105	6, 164, 639	-34
Cumul 6 mo	62.5 mbbls	44.5 mbbls	-28.8
Avg per mo	10.41 mbbls	7.42 mbbls	-28.7

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*  21% of the actual fiscal year production would be 97 million barrels.

And now from the “No D’uh” economics desk…

1.  OPEC is warning that sustained high oil prices coupled with a weakened economy – like say in the Untied States? – could push demand for crude oil downward. Oil demand may not reach the pre-crisis level in the near to medium term.

2.  World Bank head Robert Zoellick is concerned about the persistently high jobless numbers in the United States and the impact that could have on economic recovery globally. The unofficial jobless rate could be as high as 20%, according to former labour secretary Bob Reich.  Officially it is only half that.

3.  TD Economics forecasts that Canada will experience “tepid” growth over the next decade. 

"It is critical to recognize that things will not simply return to how they were," TD economist Grant Bishop says in the report published Tuesday.

Yes, Grant, we are all glad the gang at TD Economics figured out – finally – that the crisis meant change.  When things change they aren’t the same afterward as they were before the crisis. It just takes some people a while to figure that out, apparently.

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Where’s Joey? The Churchill Falls contract signing, 1969

Signing the contract to develop Churchill Falls in 1969 are, left to right, Yvon de Guise and Jean-Claude Lesard of Hydro Quebec and Donald McParland and Eric Lambert of Brinco, the private sector company that held rights to develop natural resources in Newfoundland and Labrador. [Photo reproduced from Philip Smith, Brinco: the story of Churchill Falls, (Toronto: McClelland and Stewart, 1975).]

Contrary to popular mythology the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador did not negotiate the deal to develop the hydroelectric complex at Churchill Falls.

 

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Twice the citizen

From the Remembrance Day edition of the Telegram, a fine account of two local soldiers’ experiences with the modern Canadian Army at home and overseas.

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So where’s NALCOR?

The 17th annual bilateral (U.S.-Canada) conference on energy issues is taking place in Boston this Thursday and Friday.

The conference theme is North American Energy:  Forging Ahead in the Current Economic and Environmental Climate.

Everyone who is anyone in energy issues on the northeast of the continent will be there as a sponsor and on the program.

Except the scrappy little energy company that Danny Williams would like to flip  some day. 

That’s right.

NALCOR Energy is nowhere to be seen.

All the big players are there as platinum level sponsors.

Newfoundland and Labrador is being represented by the provincial government which booked in for the second cheapest sponsorship level ($1500).

And the Newfoundland and Labrador representative on the program is none other than than…

Nope.

Not the Premier.

Jean Charest is a keynote speaker, though.

Nope.

Not Ed Martin.

Not even Kathy Dunderdale.

There’s only Wes Foote, an assistant deputy minister in the natural resources department.

And he’s not even an electricity guy.

Wes is the oil ADM.

If you really want to develop the supposed energy hub of North America surely goodness you’d be out there marketing the heck out of the oil, gas and electricity opportunities in Newfoundland and Labrador at a conference where all the people who matter are showing up.

And you’d be using the state-owned energy monopoly to do it.

But NALCOR isn’t there at all in a prominent spot.

What gives?

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MIA AG report pops up

The auditor general update report that appeared and then disappeared a couple of weeks ago is back.

This time all the links work.

No explanation of the mysterious appearance and disappearance in the last week of October, though.

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Oil royalties down 57% from 2008; 15% below budget so far for 2009

Forget the bubble, the imaginary protection Newfoundland and Labrador supposedly enjoyed from the global recession.

Forget any prospect of another windfall year in 2009 like the one in 2008.

The prospect of a balanced budget  - let alone a slashed deficit - could be dim if provincial oil royalty figures thus far in the fiscal year hold true to the end of March 2010.

According to figures released by the federal natural resources department (NRCAN), Newfoundland and Labrador averaged $89.6 million a month in oil royalties for the first five months of 2009. 

That’s about 57% below the average monthly 2008 oil royalties, based on $2.5 billion over 12 months.

It’s also 15% below the projected oil royalty figure contained in 2009 Estimates.  If that trend continues, the provincial oil royalties would come in at around $1.08 billion instead of  the $1.262 billion forecast in the Estimates. 

Budget 2009 projected a $1.3 billion cash shortfall on a cash basis (The Estimates) and a $750 million shortfall on an accrual basis (The Budget Speech).  In 2007, the current provincial government quietly reversed the practice established in 2003 and began to report the province’s budget using both accrual and modified cash accounting.

Without significant changes in other revenues, dramatic spending cuts or a combination of both, it’s going to be tough for the provincial government to avoid a deficit this year and it may well wind up with a larger deficit than forecast.

While other areas of the economy may be performing better than expected, it’s doubtful they be able to generate the added revenue for the provincial treasury  that came from oil within the past few years. 

Borrowing would seem to be inevitable, whether it was borrowing from banks or borrowing from the $1.8 billion in temporary investments the provincial government had on hand last spring.  Some of that $1.8 billion is committed to other projects, however.

The table below shows the monthly oil royalty figures for April to August 2009 as well as the offshore oil production from April to September and the average royalty per barrel for each month. 

Month	Royalty  ($)	Production (barrels)	Average royalty amount per barrel ($)
Apr	94, 344, 222. 11	9, 116, 213	10.34
May	77, 970, 776. 28	6, 915, 304	11.25
Jun	97, 572, 585. 54	7, 374, 739	13.23
Jul	89, 287, 050. 27	8, 629, 918	10.34
Aug	49, 851, 328. 75	6, 537, 149	7.62
Sep	N/A	6, 164, 839	N/A
Total	448, 461, 684. 47*	44, 738, 162**	N/A
Average	89, 692, 336. 89*	7, 456, 360**	N/A

* First five months

** Six months

The August royalty total is particularly low due to decreased production at White Rose for planned maintenance. The September figure may also be low due to scheduled maintenance. 

The production figures are taken from the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador  Offshore Petroleum Board website.

Bond Papers tried unsuccessfully to get the information from the provincial finance department before contacting NRCAN.

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Freedom from Information: oil royalties version

After two e-mail requests to the provincial finance department yielded nothing but delays for two weeks, a simple e-mail to the federal natural resources department produced information on the provincial oil royalties the provincial finance department had trouble releasing.

And it only took four working days.

The request on October 21 to the provincial finance department was simple enough:

What is the total offshore royalty received by the provincial government from 01 Apr 09 to 30 September 2009?

The first response (October 23) from the department spokesperson said:

The information you are requesting is provided at the end of the year in the public accounts and can be made available to you at that time.

Of course, the estimates are publicised at the end of the fiscal year but the audited financial statements  - the public accounts -  for 2009 won’t be released until February 2011. 

That seemed like an unusually long and unnecessary wait for information that should be readily available.

Oil royalties are collected each month by the federal natural resources department (NRCAN) under the terms of the 1985 Atlantic Accord.  The amounts collected are set by the provincial government through its own royalty regimes for Hibernia, Terra Nova and White Rose.  The royalties collected are turned over in their entirety to the provincial finance department monthly.

A second request (October 23) to provincial finance asked for the reason the information was being withheld.   The reply to that inquiry came on November 4, 2009 and gave a new, more curious response:

For the particular timeframe of your request, the department is still receiving the relevant information.  When the data collection is complete, the information will be made available. 

Still receiving information?  Now that’s a bit of an odd idea since the finance department should be in the process of completing a mid-year financial update for public release.  The figures on oil royalties would be sitting right there on someone’s computer, presumably since they form a very big part of the provincial government’s annual revenues. 

If nothing else, finance officials produce monthly statements of account showing revenues and expenditures both for government as a whole and for individual departments.   It would be exceedingly strange if the finance department didn’t have the figures for at least April to August. 

As it is, your humble e-scribbler went looking for the information in October.  It might have been a bit optimistic to get even the September figures.  At this point – early November - provincial officials should have September done and October should be well on the way.

But nothing at all until the whole thing was complete?  Highly unusual, to say the least.

Your humble e-scribbler turned instead to NRCAN.  An e-mail inquiry to the NRCAN manager of media relations on November 5 for the year to date oil royalty figures produced the response on November 9:  the oil royalty figures for April to August 2009.  September is in the pipeline and even October might be available within a few weeks.

It was that simple and that fast.

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Lower Churchill a long way off

In another Telegram story not available on line Danny Williams admits the Lower Churchill is still a long way from being a reality:

“We’re not looking at a Lower Churchill in the near term. “

He then expressed his hope to have the project approved within two years and started some time after that.

But that’s just his hope, not a prediction of anything.

As Bond Papers readers have known for some time, the project is full of problems, not the least of which is a lack of markets and financing, the two elements crucial to building the multi-billion dollar project.

Again, it’s pretty much old hat since he’s been dampening expectations about the project since at least early 2008.

Many people didn’t quite know what to make of it. Now we know that Williams had been consistently rebuffed for five years in his efforts to get Hydro Quebec to take an ownership stake in the project.

That wasn’t what Williams said publicly at the time but then again, when people don’t know what’s going on they can’t ask uncomfortable questions.

Incidentally, it has been two months now and not a single conventional news media outlet has bothered to follow up on the stunning revelations from natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale about the secret pitches to Hydro Quebec.

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Governments are afraid of their people after all

Well, afraid of their people getting their hands on information and then daring to ask questions.  Good heavens, imagine the time that would take.

Take for example, this quote from a weekend Telegram news story (Correctional Update:  Yeah it is online.) on Danny Williams and his attitude toward disclosure of public records:

“If things get out and they have to be known, and we can be questioned on it, absolutely but if we had to have an open book on absolutely everything we’re doing, I’ve got to tell you, I’d be out of here.  I’d be gone.”

In the front end of that quote, Williams was expressing his concern about the drag on his time if he had to explain things once documents and other information were released.

This is really old hat by now and it is really old hat to note that Danny Williams was a huge proponent of open records laws before he got elected.  Once he took the oath, he very quickly thought it a bad idea for the public to know what he was up to.

Take for example his very first great foray into freedom from information.  The telegram asked for copies of polling Williams commissioned from one of his favourite pollsters.  Williams refused to disclose them despite the fact the law stated in plain English that polling couldn’t be withheld.   In another instance, the telegram asked for files it knew existed.  Williams admitted there were “purple files”.  The official reply to the request was that they didn’t exist and no documents were disclosed. 

Funny, then to see him quoted in the Telly six years later as saying:  “we go through the process and we vet what we’re entitled to vet by the rules. ”

That purple file one is still lost in the “process”, incidentally, almost two years later.

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Cougar 491 survivor’s statement

Robert Decker survived the crash of Cougar 491 on March 12, 2009. The S-92 ditched in the ocean off St. John’s Newfoundland after aborting a routine resupply run to two of the province’s offshore oil production platforms.

He testified this week at the Wells inquiry into offshore helicopter safety. That’s an important point lost on some reporters and most of the ghouls – political and otherwise – who’ve busily been trying to capitalize on the tragedy for their own purposes. This is an inquiry primarily focussed on offshore safety.

Decker’s testimony was riveting and added considerable new detail to the events on that late winter day. The testimony was, however, tightly controlled, with Decker agreeing only to respond to previously agreed upon questions. The trauma of the event and its effect on him were painfully evident.

There’s an account of it at the Telegram. The full transcript is also available at the helicopter inquiry website.

Decker also read a prepared statement. His closing words should be heeded by all, particularly those who have used this tragedy for their own purposes. The ghouls should take note:

"If we really want to make offshore helicopter travel safe, what we have to do is to make sure that every helicopter does not crash.

"The best way to keep every offshore worker safe is to keep every helicopter in the air where it belongs.

"Safety starts with the helicopter, and I think everything else is secondary."

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Legislature Light

The Bow Wow parliament will be having another short fall. 

The legislature, normally open in the middle of November, won’t be opening until after the Terra Nova by-election.

Supposedly this is to ensure the parties can participate in the by-election.  More likely, it is to let the government avoid the daily heat of question period at such an inopportune moment.  Of course it could also mean that the entire Tory caucus will be living in Glovertown for the month of November.  That worked so well last time.

If the governing Tories lose Terra Nova don’t be surprised if the House doesn’t sit at all until the new year.

The members of the House of Assembly are among the highest paid legislators in the country and sit in the legislature the fewest number of days annually of any federal or provincial house.

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Fire cost NALCOR $18 million in lost revenue

A fire at Churchill Falls last November cost the province’s energy corporation a total of $18 million in lost revenue in late 2008 and early 2009 under the Guaranteed Winter Availability Contract (GWAC) with Hydro-Quebec.

NALCOR Energy released updated information in response to a request from your humble e-scribbler.

The fire occurred November 3, 2008 in a cable shaft at the Churchill Falls generating station and caused what a NALCOR spokesperson described in an e-mail as “extensive damage”.  Damage knocked two of the plant’s 11 turbines out of action and reduced overall generating capacity by a reported 1,000 megawatts.

According to the spokesperson,

This contributed to the decrease in GWAC revenue to Nalcor Energy in 2008 of $8.4 million and year-to-date 2009 of $9.6 million. No penalties [for non-performance] apply under GWAC.

One of the turbine/generation units was back in action by February 2009.  Repairs to the second unit were completed over the summer.

Under the GWAC,  Churchill Falls Labrador Corporation [CFLCo] agrees to supply Hydro-Quebec with a set amount of power during HQ’s high demand winter season apparently in addition to that supplied under the 1969 contract.  The power is used in Quebec. 

GWAC is one of several elements of a 1998 deal that included the recall and resale of a block of 130 megawatts of power and a new shareholders agreement for CFLCo between majority shareholder Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro and minority shareholder Hydro-Quebec.  

In the recall component of the deal, NL Hydro recalled a block of power under the 1969 contract and then resold it to Hydro Quebec at new, higher rates.

The recall element of the agreement has now been replaced by a new deal to wheel upwards of 800 megawatts of Churchill Falls power to the United States through Quebec.  Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro pays Hydro Quebec’s transmission corporation $19 million annually in fees for wheeling the power under terms set down by Quebec’s provincial energy regulatory board.

NL Hydro gets  about the same net price for its power under the wheeling deal with Emera and Hydro Quebec as it did selling the power directly to Hydro Quebec. 

Note that some of the links on GWAC are no longer active. They seem to have disappeared in a series of routine redesigns of websites in the provincial government and in the development of the new NALCOR website.

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How far will the make-over go?

The Mighty Mother Corp’s newly minted/re-organized national political news reporting is well worth the time and effort every single day.

There’s even a blog -   Inside Politics – where the reporters in the Ceeb’s parliamentary bureau weigh in on all manner of stuff that local news hounds and political watchers will love.

Like skewering the Liberals for not knowing how many sleeps there are until Santa comes.

Or the federal Conservatives for their new-annoyance with Access to Information (all the while insisting they are the most accountable, open and transparent government in history, shurely)

Or printing transcripts of scrums and interviews or – mercy sakes – doing something called “linking” to other information using that new-fangled Innertubes, or Internet or whatever the heck that infernal contraption is on the desk there.

Undoubtedly, politicians in Ottawa will be soon accusing the Ceeb’s reporters of misrepresenting quotes,  of just cutting up things to suit their evil purposes and moaning about how they will inevitably suffer the wrath of what the parents of 50-somethings still call the blogosphere.

The CBC news make-over is refreshing.  Interesting to see how far it spreads.

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A new era of original ideas

The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador spent an untold sum on a consultant to develop a so-called youth retention and attraction strategy.

They created a new ministerial title: “Minister Responsible for Youth Engagement.”

The news release has nine paragraphs and no fewer than four media contacts.

The “strategy”, as described by the consultant, consists of four elements. 

It took 13 focus groups with young people across the province and in Ottawa and Fort MacMurray to come up with these highly innovative concepts designed to keep young people in the province:

1.  Create jobs.

2.  Put services in major centres. Like maybe St. John’s, Gander, Grand Falls-Windsor and Corner Brook?

3.  Link education to the labour market.

4.  Build “an understanding of the benefits of immigration and diversity through public education, community dialogue and strengthened curriculums in the education system.”

 

The “strategy” document describes this as a “fresh, modern approach.”

At least the current administration is getting faster at peddling someone else’s old ideas in new packages. 

In 2007, they unveiled the provincial government’s 2002 waste management strategy.

This took only 18 months.

You could not make this stuff up if you tried.

 

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Why people who can think are abandoning the conventional media in droves

Courtesy of CBC’s provincial affairs reporter comes an explanation of why the local press gallery did not report Danny Williams “sell it off and pay off the debt” comment.

Seems the Premier did not actually mean to say he would sell off the provincial energy corporation in order to pay off the public debt.

Rather, the Premier explained that he meant to say he would sell off all the assets of the provincial energy company to pay the debt off.

Oh.

So glad that got cleared up.

For a second there it looked like he said he would sell of the company to pay off the province’s debt. 

Apparently what he really said was that he would sell of the company piece by piece to pay off the province’s debt.

Oh.

At least someone explained it.

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Williams wants energy sell-off in NL, too

Danny Williams in 2009, on the sale of NB Power which will reduce the provincial debt by 40%:

"They've agreed to sell away their future."

Danny Williams, in 2008, on his own plans for the energy corporation owned by the provincial government in Newfoundland and Labrador:

This particular government wants to strengthen Hydro, wants to make it a very valuable corporation: a corporation that will ultimately pay significant dividends back to the people of this Province; a corporation that perhaps some day may have enough value in its assets overall as a result of the Hebron deal and the White Rose deal, possible Hibernia deal, possible deals on gas, possible deals on oil refineries and other exploration projects, where hopefully we might be able to sell it some day and pay off all the debt of this Province, and that would be a good thing.

Huge tip of the hat to Geoff Meeker and ultimately labradore for that one. It is amazing after all this time and the countless examples just like this one that conventional media still report his comments on anything without balancing them with his other comments about the same thing.

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How will you remember?

The official description of the 2009 Veterans Affairs poster:

The Veterans’ Week 2009 poster pays tribute to Canada’s service men and women who have served this nation from the First World War to current missions.

The Veteran featured in the background on the left of the poster is Harold Wishart as he salutes his fallen comrades. Mr. Wishart was a pilot in the Second World War and since then he has done so much to preserve the memory of the achievements made by Canadians in wartime and in peace.

Over the years, Mr. Wishart was a very active member of the Wartime Pilots’ and Observers’ Association and the former provincial chairman of the Royal
Canadian Air Force (RCAF) Benevolent Fund.

The image seen in the background features Canadian Forces soldiers on the international mission in Afghanistan as they pause for remembrance. These men and women are continuing Canada’s legacy, passed on by our Veterans, of defending peace, freedom and the preservation of human values worldwide.

The central image features a young girl, Brianna Arsenault, whose reflections on the contributions of our Veterans and Canadian Forces members in Afghanistan are demonstrated in her creation of a poppy. The image reflects this year’s call to action to all Canadians through the phrase “How will you Remember?” which asks Canadians to think about their own remembrance and participation in remembrance activities.

Canadians are encouraged to take an active role in commemoration and to ensure that the selfless dedication of Canadian Veterans is never forgotten. Talk with Veterans and Canadian Forces members about their service to Canada, learn how serving our nation has changed their lives, and pass on what you have learned to your peers.

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Remember, remember…

People should not be afraid of their governments.

Governments should be afraid of their people.

A bad deal

Gordon Weil thinks the NB Power purchase deal with Hydro-Quebec is a bad idea.

Interesting that both the pro and con for this two part series in the Telegram both come from people associated with the Atlantic Institute for Market Studies.

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You can never go home again

Ron Ellsworth lost his bid to sit on the eastern school district board, the place where he began his short career in elected politics.

That’s hot on the heels of his humiliation at the hands of Doc O’Keefe in the race for mayor of St. John’s in September.

All that bodes extremely well for his opponents if  Ron gets the Tory nod in any St. John’s seat in any upcoming provincial general election or by-election.

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A good deal

Brian Lee Crowley and Tom Adams weigh in on the NB Power sale.

Among other things they not that the Lower Churchill is a dead horse owing to the current market situation:

The lesson for Newfoundlanders and Labradorians is inescapable. They should learn from the Mackenzie gas experience before supporting Premier Williams' ephemeral dream to press ahead with hydro-electric development on the Lower Churchill in a glutted market. Taxpayers should be relieved, not outraged, that Nalcor, Newfoundland's Crown energy company, is not out in the market trying to sell costly power right now.

In the long term, the economics of Lower Churchill development may well turn around, particularly if the market for its environmental characteristics becomes sufficiently rich to overcome the costs of remoteness. But that's for another day.

Perhaps one day soon local reporters will stop carrying the transmission line line as if it was anything vaguely close to reality.

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And then another EA steps up…

Sandy Collins, former executive assistant to Paul Oram is the provincial Conservative candidate in Terra Nova in the by-election yet to be called.

Orange Update: Robyn Brentnall is the New Democrat in the running.

Red Update: The Liberal candidate is John Baird. He was elected in a nomination fight on October 17.

Two things:

1. Remember what your humble e-scribbler said about a party that can only offer up former executive assistants as candidates, and,

2. The people in Terra Nova district can vote today by special ballot even though no election has been called.

Every person can request a special ballot including:

• an elector who has reason to believe that he/she will have difficulty voting on polling day perhaps due to work or personal commitments;

• a student who is in attendance at a recognized educational institution either inside or outside the Province;

• an elector temporarily residing outside the Province for a continuous period of less than 6 months who is unable to attend at either the advance or regular poll;

• an elector who is incarcerated in a correctional institution or in detention at the Waterford Hospital;

• a patient in hospital who will be unable to attend either the advance or regular poll.

All you have to do is contact the Office of the Chief Electoral Officer, otherwise known as Elections Newfoundland and Labrador.

There’s a form to complete and send in. You can find it in pdf format here.

They’ll send you back a voter kit which you can use to cast your vote right now.

But there’s no election yet, you may be thinking.

Doesn’t matter.

Under section 86(4) of the Elections Act, voters who meet those criteria above can ask for a special ballot no more than four weeks before an election or by-election is called. Well, you and the rest of the world don’t know when the thing will be called but we know when the earliest date is that it could be called.

That would be the day Paul Oram threw his teddy in the corner. Any of you who knew Paul was going could have already voted.

But since the rest of us found out later on, you should be able to get a ballot and vote right now.

There is no legal reason for the Chief Electoral Officer (former Tory party president Paul Reynolds) to refuse you the opportunity to vote under section 86(4).

And don’t worry if you don't like the party but not the candidate. [Updated to reflect that all candidates are now in place, barring any independents]

Under section 86.4, you can write in the name of the political party you want to vote for instead of the name of a particular person.

Voting is your right.

Now that’s pretty much the same thing said in a post about the Straits, but you know, it is not very often people get to protest a completely foolish electoral law twice in the space of a month or so. In the Straits, people were a bit fried so a protest vote was possible.

In Terra Nova, townies may not be able to judge which way the local wind is blowing.

This time everyone can take advantage of the oddest election rules in the civilised world. Only in Newfoundland and Labrador could you get to vote before an election has been called.

Vote early for the candidate of your choice.

But vote.

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Oh where, oh where did his big report go?

The province’s auditor general release a report last week to update issues covered by some of his previous reports.

or did he?

Your humble e-scribbler dutifully noted the release when it appeared and flagged it for later examination.  returning to the site today, your humble e-scribbler found that the release had mysteriously disappeared.

There are traces of it, though, just in case you were thinking the old boy had finally lost it entirely. 

On the government website you can find the archive of AG news releases.

The month of October is there but underneath it is nary a thing.  Odd that, given that in other months where nothing was said, not even the name of the silent month is noted.

On the AG website, the name of the report is there  - right at the top of the pile -  but the report itself is not.

Interesting, wot?

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His Greatest Hit seems to have missed

Hard across the province on CBC Radio, Tuesday afternoon, a woman in Plum Point reminding the host of CBC radio’s On the Go that many parts of the province still live in what host Ted Blades had referred to as the Dark Ages of the Internet or some such.

Dial-up.

Not broadband.

There is no modern, high-speed access in said community because of the costs of bringing such tools to sparsely populated areas of the province.  The woman interviewed talked of a federal government initiative to help expand coverage of the information superhighway to places like Plum Point.

The lovely town of Plum Point is interesting because it is in the same neck of the woods once represented in the House of Assembly by Trevor Taylor.  Trev represent the Straits and White Bay North and across the highway, his buddy Wally young still represents the district of St. Barbe in which Plum Point is located.  The boys were touted back in January 2001 as the start of a Tory wave sweeping the province.

Odd the number of people scurrying to claim that the opposite is not true now, but that’s another issue.

The only thing Trevor listed as an accomplishment as he hastily ran from cabinet and local politics a month ago was a provincial government plan to give a bunch of private sector companies a wad of public cash so they could stretch broadband access across the island to places that sounded suspiciously like Plum Point.

Now Plum Point is also no ordinary town as these things go for many more reasons than the fact that it is near where Trevor used to rule.

Plum Point is also home to the local member of the House of Assembly, one Wallace Young.  He owns the local motel.  His official biography also reminds us that his wife is a teacher who “has seen first-hand the effects of teacher cuts and larger classrooms”.  Old news or foreshadowing?

Anyway, perhaps Wally’s good lady wife knows, as well, the value of Internet access for local schools. 

Maybe someone should ask Wally and his wife about that.

And while they’re at it wonder how it is that this glorious fibreoptic deal Trevor was so proud of could benefit Greenland but not the lovely community of Plum Point.

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Class act

A few years ago Roger Grimes took a royal roasting for telling an off-colour joke at a small, private gathering of business people in New York. 

It was inappropriate, to put it mildly.

That’s why it so nice to see the decorum Grimes’ successor has brought to the office as he welcomed the Prince of Wales and Duchess of Cornwall yesterday in St. John’s.

This came shortly after a plug  - completely out of place - for the Danny Dam, by the by:

Hopefully your experience will be contrary to the experience of Sir Winston Churchill who when asked if he had any complaints after his tour of the United States in the 1930s said, and I quote him, “the toilet paper was too thin and the newspapers were too fat.”

Yes, there is nothing like a Royal Visit to make a joke about the ‘loo.  And if the thing is broadcast live on national television, so much the better.

Don’t even bother with the fact that the quote is only attributed to Sir Winston.

The rest of the speech is about Hisself, of course.  His time at Oxford.  Miniskirts.  Popular music from the mid 1960s.  And his staff, fish and chips and Coronation Street. 

Incidentally, the applause at the front end of the speech might have to do with the fact that the relatively small crowd in the venue (600 out of a seating capacity 10 times that) was crammed full of the governing party’s caucus and staffers.

His capper for the crapper speech – of course – was a half-story about the naming of the stadium, something Hisself said he had done.  Mile One was the half of the tale he told.  What Hisself didn’t say is the name he wanted but everyone else rejected.

The applause was restrained, even for such a loyal and faithful audience.

It all makes you wonder who is writing speeches for Hisself these days.    This one was about as cliche-laden, stereotyped and – as the quote shows – as grossly inappropriate as can be imagined.  He’s been known to deliver the odd clunker or six, including one in Toronto where his flat tone must have had his security detail making sure to keep an eye on the sharp objects and the high ledges.  Then there was the mess from the now legendary January 5, 2004 speech.  

But this one?  Makes you wonder what the Governor General and HRH, the Prince of Wales tittered over immediately after the Churchill “joke”. 

At least if Hisself didn’t write it they can correct the problem by finding someone who can write speeches for the next one.  You see,  speech-writing is like a lot of things:  you are usually better off not doing it yourself.  Experience counts.

The speech also stood in stark contrast to the other two, one by the Prime Minister and the other by the Prince of Wales which were light in tone and charming in content.  And lookit, if Stephen Harper – one of the worst speech readers even to live at 24 Sussex Drive  - comes off sounding better than you do, you know you are doing something wrong.

Again.

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That’s one way to stop the bleeding

The House of Assembly pay and compensation commission got its report in on time and out the door very quickly. 

While few people noticed it and normally few people even get it outside of a being defeated in an election, the commission recommended changes to the notion of severance for elected member of the legislature. There’s a whole section on it, in fact, beginning on page 26.

But that  recommendation  and the whole section is odd given that the commission admits right up in the front that:

Public submissions on MHA severance pay, as with pensions, were few. Those who did comment on MHA severance pay felt that it should be one week for each year of service instead of the current one month, to make it more in line with other severance payment provisions in the province.

How few?

Well one, to be exact. (page 27)

An energy warehouse

How can it be that Prince Edward Island is getting 15% of its energy needs met by wind power but all Newfoundland and Labrador has are two small projects pumping 27 megawatts each and a“demonstration project” at Ramea?

And that’s it!

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Privatizing Hydro

1.  A link to a speech on the proposal to turn Newfoundland and Labrador into a private sector energy corporation.  Note the list of specific goals established by cabinet.  Note that cabinet could use those goals to measure any proposal against but – more to the point – note that every Newfoundlanders and Labradorians could use the same list to measure the proposal. 

Now let me compare that to my energy mega-corporation checklist from 2005.

or was it 2007?

Ummm.

Errr.

Just a sec. 

Must be here somewhere.

Anyway, while the hunt continues…

2.  Try this link from last February to a proposal to privatize Hydro-Quebec.  Talk about inefficient!  But even that inefficiency is nothing compared to the mess known as NB Power.

Meanwhile, wait for any of the hysterical anti-sale opponents to give even the vaguest clue as to how NB residents could get lower power rates and pay down the NB Power debt without getting rid of the debt pig company as a Crown corporation?

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Scoping out the wind energy deficit

The current issue of The Scope includes a front page feature on wind energy in the province or – to put it more accurately - the lack of any serious development of wind energy.

Maybe one of the answers is that everyone talks about an island when in fact there is a huge landmass on the mainland potion of the province that is ripe for wind energy development.  Heck it’s even got a connection so people can ship the power to where it is needed on the eastern part of the continent.

There’s just one obstacle.

Care to guess what it is?

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NB Power Collection

Following are links to some stories on the memorandum of understanding to sell  of NB Power to Hydro-Quebec:

1.  There’s strong positive reaction side Quebec to news of the MOU.  La Presse Canadienne from metromontreal.

2.  A 30% drop in electricity rates could save the Edmundston pulp and paper mill.   Bet people in Corner Brook would be looking hard at that right now if they were in the same spot, not to mention what would have happened in Stephenville or Grand falls-Windsor under the same circumstances.

3.  NB Premier Shawn Graham accuses NB Opposition leader …err…Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Danny Williams of misleading the people of New Brunswick.  From the Gleaner.

4.  A long term rate cap is needed in New Brunswick, according to some analysts.  Considering the province has the highest residential electricity rates in Canada that would seem to be a good point. maybe opponents of the deal – including the gigantic facebook site  - could explain how to keep NB Power and lower public debt and reduce rates simultaneously.

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Whine, moan, bitch and complain

Danny Williams muses on his political past and future in the weekend Telegram. All of it is very much old hat for the locals after six years, but the mainlanders might find it revealing, especially those who are looking for some perspective on NB Power. 

The constant negativity the Premier displays really starts to get wearisome after a while.

Relentless negativity.  There’s hardly anything positive to the guy. And then he accuses others of always harping on the bad stuff.

It’s all vintage Danny:  things were so much better (for him, of course) when he was in the private sector and didn’t have to be accountable to anyone.  If only things could be like that now, with no criticism or complaints from anyone, all following dutifully behind  - unquestioningly - and jumping at his every bleat. 

He doesn’t even seem to take heart that he still has the Fan Klub, as the comments section to the story shows.  Some are so smitten with the aging leader that it seems only a matter of time before they start holding conventions, like Elvis groupies.  There they’ll be, some with their hair in Mullet Danny and others in the Silver Fox Danny of later years, either version – of course - perfectly parted down the middle.

Either version always tanned, as if fresh from yet another vacation.  Of all Canadian premiers, only Richard Hatfield spent more time out of the province he ran during the course of a year than Danny.

Perhaps they’ll hold shoulder twitching contests and if he should deign to make an appearance perhaps the Fan Klubbers will be like Ontario and fall on their knees, on a go forward basis.  Can’t you just see it?  There he is in the director’s chair, a lone spotlight glinting off his cufflinks as he takes questions from the audience about his career as a politician who loathes being a politician.  What was it like in episode one, when you did battle with the evil emperor of Canada that first time? they will ask.

Then they will mouth the lines they have memorized from countless viewings of his previous scrums as he repeats his answer, complete with the quite-franklys at just the right spot.  All designed, it seems,  to send their Fan Klubber hearts a-twitter. 

Sometimes all you can do is chuckle at it all.

Some of his fans no doubt have not heard all his past rants about what he would like do, if only he had the time.

Like no free speech in the legislature.  That’s right.  He once mused about stripping the legislature of the right of members to speak their minds without fear of persecution. A right hard won centuries ago by English parliamentarians and cherished by all elected to such a body ever since.

Well, all but one, so it seems.

It’s hard for Williams to get things done, apparently, when half his time is taken up with pesky things like speaking to reporters  -  or editorial boards too? - or blocked off with nuisances like going to cabinet and caucus meetings.

In the past, he has worried about whistleblowers and what they might get up to if they are not properly controlled.  No mention this time of the headache of trying to keep his speeches from being made public.  You know, speeches that were in public in the first place.  These are the sorts of things that prevent from doing more. 

Uneasy lies the head, he is wont to remind us all constantly.

If only people would focus on the positives instead of the negatives, he complains.  Danny has been on this complaint track quite a bit this year.  Much more so than usual, even for him.  Ranting at Randy Simms seemed like only yesterday.

But thankfully – for the Fan Klub and Tony’s sanity -  he’s going to stick around in a job he evidently despises for some totally incomprehensible, unexplained reason.

Unless, of course…

"I'm definitely going to hang around to see if I can get it [the Lower Churchill]  done," said the premier.

But Williams said he's not going to stick around forever "to beat a dead horse" if a deal cannot be sealed, nor will he sign a bad deal for the sake of getting one done while in office.

Dead horse, eh?

Keep clicking those heels, Tony.

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Bad placement

Separately, they are great ads.

But if someone in layout isn’t paying attention…

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Tough times at National Post

Criminals are now writing columns, presumably from inside their American jail cells.

Yes, Insta-peer Conrad Black has a by-line for a piece on the monarchy.

Quebec and Newfoundland have a string of politicos with criminal records all of whom could do either court or political reporting.  Maybe that would help solve the Post’s financial woes.

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Federal Kremlinology 1: Connie Unease

So, did Jane Taber’s informant actually do air quotes around the word “pollster”, or did she add that for extra effect on her own? 

You know, a creative-reporter-license kinda thing?

That’s a funny thing about something someone is supposed to have said.  There are no quotations marks.

Must be something about Connies  - like Jane’s informant - that make them telegraph their fears.

Meanwhile, in Frenchman’s Cove, Newfoundland, at least one provincial Connie must be clicking his heels together frantically and chanting ‘There’s no place like home”  at the top of his lungs.  

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Fruitloops on parade

So if there really had been a cultural genocide, as the Societe St-Jean Baptiste claims, there wouldn’t be anyone speaking French in Quebec , would there?

Some people just need to portray themselves as victims for some unfathomable reason.

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The Can Opener II

Just in time for Halloween, there’s a remake of an old horrorshow:  the local economist who makes dubious assessments that seem a wee bit tinged by things non-economical.

Used to be Wade Locke was the regime-supportive economist of record.

Now it’s Jim Feehan, a guy with a record of producing dubious bits of research on partisan political subjects.  He also co-wrote a paper on another local partisan favourite, the 1969 Churchill Falls contract.  The article  was titled “The Origins of a Coming Crisis” but at no point in the article is the crisis ever described. That should make you scratch your head just a wee bit in scepticism.  

Anyway…

Jim Feehan told local CBC radio listeners Friday morning that while this New Brunswick power deal looks like a good one in that rates will be stabilised after a series of increases, public debt will be hacked down and pulp and paper mills will benefit from lower rates, this deal isn’t really so good because once it is sold, NB Power can never come back again.

In other words, even though this deal is great from the standpoint of an economist, people should maybe think twice because of things the economist commenting knows nothing about.

Like say law.

You see, as the Fortis expropriation in this province demonstrates, even in the worst possible case in New Brunswick, there is nothing like this that can’t be undone. 

But why would you want to expropriate or buy back a debt pig like NB Power if the new arrangement delivers all the economic benefits the economist noted but downplayed?

Well, there’s a question for us to ponder as we wait for the great news in Labrador Feehan’s predecessor once predicted. In the meantime, don’t hold your breath expect an answer to that one from Feehan.

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Something to look forward to…

When Gushue’s book is finished, make sure you get a copy.

in the meantime, check John’s blog post and leave him some words of encouragement and support.

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No word on Fortis expropriation talks

While other power utilities in Atlantic Canada are up for grabs, there’s no word on the status of compensation talks between the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador and Fortis, Inc. resulting from the provincial government’s surprise seizure last winter of hydro-electricity assets in central Newfoundland.

Fortis-owned Newfoundland Properties  was one of three companies – including ENEL and Abitibi – generating capacity in the unexpected, and thus far unexplained, seizure.

Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Danny Williams announced the measures.  Williams introduced a bill in the provincial legislature in December 2008 that also quashed active court cases and stripped the companies of any legal recourse to the seizure.

The seizure of assets caused a loan default among other financial consequences.

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Emera silent on NS Power sale

With Hydro-Quebec reportedly casting covetous eyes on Nova Scotia Power, the company’s current owner – Emera – is keeping to a strict “no comment” policy, according to reports.

In related news, Nova Scotia Premier Darrell Dexter said his government has not been contacted with respect to any sale of NS Power.  He also said he doubted HQ was even interested in NS Power, despite some media reports.

Dexter also backed away from joining Newfoundland and Labrador Premier cum New Brunswick Opposition Leader Danny Williams in his crusade against the recent deal to sell NB Power to Hydro-Quebec:

"At this point, it’s certainly not my intention to pick a side in this," Mr. Dexter said.

"Those decisions with respect to what New Brunswick does are New Brunswick’s decisions. We are going to have to deal with the system operator, no matter who it is, and so we respect their right to make those decisions."

Danny Williams reportedly fears being isolated.

Too late to worry about that now.

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And by his actions, he is known

In war, said Napoleon, the moral is to the physical three to one.

In other words, psychological effects are three times greater than physical ones.

The recent by-election loss seems to have had a profound psychological impact on some of the most ardent supporters of the Blue Cause.

 Tony the Tory – he of Open Line fame – was left so profoundly distraught by the loss that he wrote the editor of the province’s largest daily to assure the world that all had not been lost and that his beloved party was not dead.

No one said it was.

But Tony evidently was afraid of such a thought.

Now it’s hardly surprising that Tony’s emotional reaction is so extreme.  The fellow is a fervent believer in The cause.  Tony worships Hisself as fervently as any. 

So it is not surprising Tony is full of fear, disquiet and unease since, you see, his idol attacked the by-election with the same manic intensity out of all proportion to what was actually involved.

As such, the psychological impact of the defeat is equally out of proportion.

labradore, it turns out, has made much the same point.

Tony rattles off a bit of history to bolster his case, but only a bit and he conveniently forgets much.

In 1987, for example, his beloved Blue Cause was so afraid of a by-election  - so petrified of the newly chosen Liberal leader at the time - that they delayed calling it as long as they could.  

Months rolled by. 

In those days there was no law requiring a by-election to be called with a fixed period.  The Liberals introduced such a law setting the maximum delay after a vacancy at 90 days.

Then in 1988, the Tories called a by-election in the old configuration of Waterford- Kenmount but only when they thought they could win it.

They didn’t.

But all of that has no larger meaning just as Tony’s list of by-elections has no such larger meaning.

But Tony’s letter itself does.

It just doesn’t have the meaning he thought it would have.

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